This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
A Global Affairs Magazine
volume 5 | iSSue 1 | WiNTeR 2011
Who Will Be the
World’s Next Superpower?
Plus: Currency Wars • The Secret History of MI6 Leaks, Forgeries, and Scandals • China’s Rise, India’s Challenge A Trade Expert’s Wish List for Good Commercial Diplomacy
Subscribe at www.diplomaticourier.org
2 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER
THE DIPLoMATIC CoURIER
A Global Affairs Magazine
Medauras Global LLC
EDIToR-In-CHIEF Ana Carcani Rold aDViSorY BoarD Andrew M. Beato Dr. Paul Cornish Sir Ian Forbes Ambassador Lisa Gable, Ret. Dr. Kirk L. Jowers Dr. Alexander Mirtchev Dr. Erik Peterson ConTRIBUTInG EDIToRS Michele Acuto Emily Baker Brian J. Forest DiAnne Graham Loretta Greene Elizabeth Pinkerton Kenneth Weisbrode Ralph Winnie Jr. art Director Ellesse Sorbonne PHoToGRAPHY/DESIGn Matthew Gruber (Website) Katy Doyle (Photography) Sebastian Rich (Photography)
coVer Michele Acuto (Feature) Mark C. Partridge (Feature) Ellesse Sorbonne (Cover) coNtriButorS Michele Acuto Songul Arslan Ambassador Donald Bandler John Bavoso James Bowen Jacinda Chan Brian Forest Kaeleigh Forsyth Matt Hughes Graig Klein Philip H. de Leon Dana Liebelson Oscar Montealegre Uddipan Mukherjee Paul Nash Rebecca Park Sunny Peter Andrew Seldon Rajeev Sharma Rami Turayhi Kenneth Weisbrode Richard Weitz Ralph Winnie, Jr.
ADVERTISInG/SPonSoRSHIP For general inquiries on advertising, sponsorship, and advertorials please contact Maria San Jose, Director of Advertising, Business Development MSJose@diplomaticourier.org oNliNe DiStriButioN Download the E-book at: www.diplomaticourier.org Also available at: Issuu.com and Scribd.com EBSCO and ProQuest SuBScriptioNS Visit www.diplomaticourier.org to order a yearly subscription of the Diplomatic Courier magazine in print. 1 Year (4 Issues): $24.95 2 Years (8 Issues): $45.00 3 Years (12 Issues): $55.00 coNtact 1660 L Street, NW, Suite 501 Washington, DC 20036, USA For General Inquiries: email@example.com
If your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, do more and become more, you are a leader.
-John Quincy Adams
PUBLISHInG. The Diplomatic Courier magazine is produced by Medauras Global LLC, an independent publishing firm based in Washington, DC. The Diplomatic Courier is printed four times a year and publishes a blog and online commentary weekly on the Internet at www.diplomaticourier.org. PRInT. Print issues of the Diplomatic Courier average 60-80 pages in length. Individual and back issues cost $6.99 per issue (plus S&H). Student rates are available to both part-time and full-time students with proof of school enrollment. New print issues of the Diplomatic Courier are published and initially mailed in early April, July, October, and mid January. Subscriptions commence with the next issue. RATES. One year, four issues: $24.95. Two years, eight issues: $45.00. Three years, 12 Issues: $55.00. For bulk, international, and institutional rates, please visit: www.diplomaticourier.org/subscribe. eDitorial. The articles in the Diplomatic Courier magazine in print and online represent the views of their authors and do not reflect those of the editors and the publishers. While the editors assume responsibility for the selection of the articles, the authors are responsible for the facts and interpretations of their articles. PERMISSIonS. Authors retain all copyrights to their articles and blogs. None of the articles can be
reproduced without permission. For permissions please email the editors at: editors@diplomaticourier. org with your request. LEGAL. Copyright © 2006-2011 The Diplomatic Courier and Medauras Global LLC. All rights reserved. No part of this publication can be reproduced without written consent of the publisher. All trademarks that appear in this publication are the property of the respective owners. Any and all companies featured in this publication are contacted by Medauras Global LLC and the Diplomatic Courier to provide advertising and/or services. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of information in this publication, however, Medauras Global LLC and the Diplomatic Courier magazine make no warranties, express or implied in regards to the information, and disclaim all liability for any loss, damages, errors, or ommissions. ConTACT. Mailing Address: The Diplomatic Courier, 1660 “L” Street, NW, Suite 501, Washington, District of Columbia 20036, United States of America. Telephone: 978-317-3844. Facsimile: 202659-5234. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org. ADVERTISInG. For inquiries and quotes on advertising, sponsorship, and advertorials please contact us at: email@example.com to request the most up-todate Media Kit.
4 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER
The National Chamber Foundation’s CEO Leadership Series is Washington’s premier business and economic leadership program. The CEO Leadership Series offers a platform for CEOs of high profile companies to share their vision and thoughts on critical issues facing global business today and in the future. This series is a unique opportunity to hear from leaders at the helm of some our most significant industries and companies. For more information, visit www.ncf.uschamber.com/ceo-leadership-series. 5
Russia. Rold 6 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER ISN ETH Zurich Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich 7 .ethz. FeatureS 50 South Africa Rising And. and Scandals by Kenneth Weisbrode Diplomatic liFe 56 Contemporary Crisis by Rebecca Park 58 around the World on train. Forgeries. Partridge 14 The Fragility of Bric by Michele Acuto 26 Brazil’s leadership in South America by Songul Arslan 28 Brazil’s Trade Diplomacy by Oscar Montealegre 30 privatization in russia by Ralph Winnie Jr.ch coVer 10 Bric and recoveries by Mark C.S.000 full text research papers and journal articles A comprehensive directory of international affairs actors E-learning courses on key security issues iNterVieW 24 Sir John Scarlett. Tango at a New “Concert of Europe” by Jacinda Chan eDitor’S Note 8 rapidly moving to 2050 by Ana C. Former MI6 Director An extensive collection of historical primary source material GALLERY 16 Dialoguing in egypt by Katy Doyle SummitrY 70 Diplomatic Dance: Germany. Jr.WiNTeR 2011 | COnTEnTs www. Forest Research made easy For international relations and security professionals Access: BREWInG BUSInESS 68 Good Commercial Diplomacy: A Trade Expert’s Wish List by Philip H.isn. already by Rajeev Sharma 46 china’s Falling Demographic Dividend by Paul Nash 48 Chinese Capitalism Vis-a-Vis iran by Donald Bandler & Ralph Winnie. Why Nigeria Hasn’t by Matt Hughes 52 South Africa: From reconciliation to rape by Andrew Seldon 54 leaks. de Leon Thought-provoking commentary and analysis Over 20. india’s challenge by Harsh V. 34 Russia’s Demographic Time Bomb by Richard Weitz 36 china’s rise. Pant 38 Use of Technology to Fight corruption in india by Dana Liebelson 40 china and the realities of Power in Asia by David Schneider 44 Why china is a Superpower. part ii by Jamie Bowen table of contents Book reVieW 22 Book Unmasks Secret MI6 History by Brian J. and U.
South Africa. lags behind. while the speeds may vary. and non-proﬁts. How BRIC development will continue in what was once termed “The Path to 2050” in the next 10 years is as important as understanding the decade behind us and this issue examines many of the fundamental issues at play. As the economic power lines are cast. Their development continues a decade later and. the evidence suggests the complexities and high theatre great diplomacy thrives upon. [Dc] Ana C. to dealing with corruption in India. Brazil. one whose impact is measured in this issue of the Courier. think tanks. 2011 also marks an anniversary year here at the Diplomatic Courier as we head towards five years in publication later this year. From population concerns in Russia and China. 2010 2011 8 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 9 . India. there is little doubt that all remain full steam ahead. still a fresh idea that will certainly give birth to many more fresh ideas as it ticks away 365 spaces on the calendar. Build a community around your ideas and speak directly to millions of readers around the globe. 2011 is newborn in the public consciousness. into a New Year. 2011 marks the tenth anniversary of Goldman Sachs global economist Jim O’Neil’s landmark 2001 paper. the world moves along as it always does. and China. the Diplomatic Courier has found an growing audience both online and on the printed pages being turned by the readers holding this magazine in their hands. September 13-15. Rold Editor-in-Chief Technology Pioneer World Economic Forum Technology Pioneer 2011 Award Winner Tianjin. There will also be attention focused on the unofficial fifth BRIC. The BRIC concept has become a powerful one in the world of diplomacy. media. so too will the nature of how states relate to one another. to Brazil’s massive natural wealth and trade with nations of concern like Iran. Our continued growth is a testament to the thirst for fresh insights into the world of global diplomacy from new and exciting angles.editor’s rapidly moving to 2050 note We’re home to the world’s leading businesses. Where the world comes to read. the pleasure of this publication to serve that audience. “The World Needs Better BRICs. www. in contrasting why it continues to develop while a similar African state.scribd. governments. In those 365 will be the marking of a significant anniversary. China. Nigeria. seamlessly. and recast.com a s the streets are swept of the last remaining strips of confetti. In an era where some suggested print was dead. It has been. and will continue to be. Russia. Today’s ally could well become tomorrow’s impediment to growth or monetary advantage. were grouped together for reasons of growth potential and parallel development stages in 2001.” The four BRIC countries.
investors are strongly anticipating more easing and have responded by driving down the dollar. THE RESPonSE. tumble on fears about the health of its members’ balance sheets. For the emerging economies of Brazil. Men like Sir Henry Rawlinson and Henry Pottinger helped open new markets for British and Russian goods. How they are playing this Great Currency Game is revealing. India and Russia—forevermore linked as the BRICs—this is a chance to cement one’s place at the center of the world’s economic map. policy makers and investors continue to worry about the health of the U. which flowed into present day Afghanistan. Other countries are fighting to protect domestic producers. and many others collapsed under the weight of unpaid debt and contagion fears. Countries are struggling to maintain competitive advantage as their goods and services become more expensive relative to their competitors. This is the Great Game of exchange rates. There is the added bonus that growing exports will reduce balance of payment deficits many nations have wracked up after years of excessive consumption. There is also the possibility of political turmoil from angry. The European Union has also seen its currency. where central banks buy up assets to further expand the money supply. as the economic map of the world is being redrawn. As of the publishing of this article. and offers a glimpse of what they may be like in the coming decades. Great Britain and Imperial Russia fought for riches at the ends of the world. Over the intervening years. Three years on and recovery is still illusive. (This publication covered the topic in its Winter 2007 Issue. with Russia’s victories coming at the expense of Britain and vice versa. The side effect would be a depreciation in the value of the dollar. Central to the Game was the expansion of the homeland’s economic reach. which is done when interest rates cannot be cut any further. In response. Consensus is building around the need for a second round of quantitative easing. Should every country try to export their way to growth. it could mean a dip back into recession. With the world’s two great currencies depreciating. The competition is intense and it is similarly zero-sum.” buying dollars with renminbi and then selling its central bank bills. Italy. As a result. there is another great currency that has seen its value fall—the Chinese renminbi. As the greenback hit new lows against the euro and the British pound. The unlovingly termed PIIGS—Portugal. For years. and Uzbekistan. PARTRIDgE | i n the 1800s.) It became even more contentious at the height of the crisis when the Chinese government halted its crawling appreciation against the dollar. However. American and European goods are relatively cheaper to buy on the global market. the renminbi has followed suit.Bric The New Great Game | by MARk C. A similar Great Game is being played out today. In the deserts and mountains of Central Asia. Beijing achieved this feat through “sterilization. thereby creating jobs at home. the euro depreciated for much of 2010. countries are looking to the end of the earth in order to export their way out of recession. AIG. The hope is that increasing the supply of dollars will stimulate lending and economic growth. the Federal Reserve and its fellow central banks slashed interest rates and flooded the marketplace with cheap money in an effort to mitigate the severity of the downturn. the Royal Bank of Scotland. With domestic production stagnate and unemployment high. While this Game promises the glory of economic stability for some. they redrew the map of the world. China. economy. China’s currency has been one of the hot button issues in international relations. The European Central Bank has been purchasing government bonds to stabilize the financial markets with some success. The scale of the operation is incredible. Lehman Brothers. It shows their current standing in the world. Beijing increased its foreign exchange reserves by a record $194 billion in the 10 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 11 . Searching desperately for glory. unemployed constituents. Pakistan. thereby maintaining its desired exchange rate. Ireland. The plan is to increase domestic production and sell goods to other countries. THE FIRST SALVo. the euro. losing holds the possibility for disaster—not just for each nation. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Greece and Spain—have massive deficits and investors are no longer willing to lend them money at reasonable rates.S. young men played as knights and pawns in the Great Game. Markets tumbled across the globe as keystones of the global economy ceased to exist. how their economies operate. but also for the global economy. It was zero-sum. Money and workers are being drawn from these economies as the governments struggle to implement draconic budget cuts.
India and Brazil may be talking about intervention. but how long will it allow its status as the outsourcing capital of the world to be undermined? These actions smack of protectionism. There are reports that India cannot even intervene because it is short of cash. The chances of any major breakthrough are slim. Economists the world over hope that China will provide those consumers and reduce its savings rate. Brazil and India are confronting the challenges of transitioning from emerging economies based largely on exports to ones with a greater focus on consumers. with the new flood of money? More than just short-term imbalances. is how many of these countries can actually follow through on their tough words? And to do so in a lasting manner? It is not as easy as Beijing makes it seem. an themd | iss ue 1 | WiNT eR 201 0 subsc ribe at www. as foreign investors take advantage of lucrative IPOs and the booming economy.” By contrast. Instead. The result has been an appreciation in the Indian rupee. especially oil and natural gas. As a result. the Bank of Japan intervened in currency markets. The country’s finance minister complained that the world was “in the midst of an international currency war. is planning to open an office in São Paulo. Thailand imposed a 15 percent tax on foreign holdings of bonds in an attempt to curb capital inflows. but the transition could be risky. which the International Monetary Fund has fretted about. more balanced global economy are needed. the currency peg helped the Chinese economy maintain its astonishing growth rates. Certainly there are other options.’s continued weaknesses do not seem likely to change any time soon. The result was a 3 percent fall in the yen.org to subscribe. visit: A Glob al Affa irs Mag azine Dipl o cou matic rier volu me 4 u. How much longer will governments stand on the sidelines? REDRAWInG THE MAP. and telecommunications for decades now. the foundations of the global economy are shifting. and by a further 9. These factors make Brazil an increasingly attractive place for investors.S. Like India. There have been huge inflows of capital into India.1 percent in 2009.S. This threatens us because it takes away our competitiveness. Other BRICs do not maintain a peg to the dollar withtheir exporting sectors struggling as a result.S. Five hedge funds with over $1 billion in assets are based in the country.S. the India’s economy expanded at a brisk 8. most notably from Washington. Diplomacy and negotiations could avert a race to the bottom. investors have piled money into these assets leading to a rebound in 2010. Suddenly the outsourcing calculus becomes difficult. Alexei Ulyukayev.) In the wake of the sub-prime crisis. The American consumer.” and his country “is not going to pay the price” for economic imbalances. If the majority of Russians are still struggling to pay for life’s staples. especially as India’s $60 billion outsourcing sector gets more than 50 percent of its business from the U. The country is home to massive raw material deposits. What is clear is that the world’s economic map is being fundamentally redrawn.6 trillion.” Just ignore the rouble’s fall. which rose to two-year highs against the dollar this past October. no actions had been taken. Markets quickly undid that work. THE CURREnCY WARS. as the yen marched back up to new highs. Russia seems intent to continue on its well-worn path of commodityled growth.” In September 2010. Brazil’s central bank governor warned “there is a very serious currency problem and should be addressed.COVER | BRiC third quarter of 2010. The question now.d iplom aticou rier.” which are now “being shifted on to countries that are both attractive to capital inflows and unwilling or unable to intervene in the currency markets on the needed scale. It enjoys strong manufacturing and service sectors.diplomaticourier. Beijing continues to assert its policy authority and has been able to hold its course in the face of massive pressure. However. largely because of its cheap labor. In April. This growth has been a mixed blessing. Due to fears about inflation. In 2008. Brazil has also tasted the sweet and sour of a booming economy. pharmaceuticals. Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said “Our intervention will be to keep liquidity conditions consistent with activity in the real economy and to maintain financial stability. In October 2010. Huge reserves and a real commitment are needed to establish and maintain a peg on the order being discussed. the U. Brevan Howard. as well as huge resource deposits—it is home to the world’s largest iron-ore producer. India has been an outsourcing hub for technology. Right now. China’s build up in reserves stalls “the inevitable adjustment towards current account deficits in the emerging world.8 percent. This looks to be true as the central bank recently stepped in to prop up its currency. The Great Game is on. which had accounted for 77 percent of U. However. markets are struggling to decide whether high commodity prices will compensate for the weak fundamentals in the country at large. but at the time of publishing.co m $10. with the great and rising powers jostling for position. With central banks continuing to flood the market with money. the rouble has fallen against the euro and the dollar in recent months. the threat of a currency war is a warning rather than a reality. Though it has allowed some appreciation in the reminbi in recent months.” So will the needed consumption be found in the other BRICs. while the world’s fourthlargest fund manager. there is the threat of a bubble inflating in these emerging economies. Russia is calling for “peace.” Similarly. which have been allocated to much-needed infrastructure projects. has slashed spending and is reducing its debt. in part out of fear of sparking off a “lost decade” similar to Japan in the 1990s. said that Moscow was “not taking part in any currency wars. this one is not likely to include massive bloodshed or an invasion of Afghanistan. pushed on by angry constituents who complained that cheap Chinese exports are costing America jobs. Beijing has shown very little willingness to do so. India has so far discounted the use of capital controls. The country has faired relatively well during the recession and is currently enjoying strong growth. (Unlike the Great Game of the 1800s. a general weakening of currency. The result of this model is a yawning gap between the uber-rich and everyone else. thanks in large part to the country’s many producers and exporters who sell their goods overseas. Meanwhile. Russia’s economy contracted painfully by 8 percent in 2009 as credit dried up and industrial construction halted. there is only so much consumption that can be expected from the Land of Putin and Medvedev. but such policies “would cause significant harm to global trade and stifle the broader economic recovery. the best that can be hoped for in the near term is the status quo.S. this has led to a flow of money into the country and an appreciation in the currency. [Dc] COVER | BRiC Don’t Miss Another issue! in 2011 you will get 4 issues + 1 Bonus special issue on gloBAl Cities + invitAtions to our exClusive events ConferenCes & pArties www. and not to stand against developments driven by change economic fundamentals. Vale. House of Representatives passed a bill that would allow the U. In the second quarter of 2010. the current situation is more like a map being redrawn. It is possible. Along with a major stimulus package. What does this mean for the other BRICs? As Martin Wolf of the Financial Times notes. even as other countries tumbled into recession. in September.” Five months after this warning. The question then becomes: Will a currency war actually be needed to address today’s economic issues? Possibly. However. China’s intransigence and U. the IMF recognized the pressures on governments to protect their workers. By contrast. For example. New consumers and a new. The countries now claim to be standing on the precipice of a “currency war.S.0 0 12 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 13 . which plowed money into infrastructure projects across the country. which have seen the baht appreciate to its highest level since before the Asian crisis of the late 1990s. taking its total holdings above $2. GDP growth between 2000 and 2007.” The central bank’s first deputy chairman. selling an estimated ¥1 trillion after it neared record highs against the dollar. Instead. it expanded by 9 percent. India’s central banker hinted at intervention in the currency markets should domestic growth be harmed. Should all sides bank of export led growth and devaluation then the outcome could be disastrous. The combination of the euro and dollar depreciations and China’s peg has put pressure on many of the other emerging markets. to impose tariffs on a broad swath of Chinese goods.
and conducting groundbreaking research. Russia’s hostility towards external investors. investors in the $48 billion iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM) have half of their money weighted in BRIC stocks. policing. [Dc] Illicit financial flows forestall economic growth and good governance in poor countries and undermine the national security of rich countries. Arguably. Intra-BRIC competition and substantial internal differences amongst their political systems and traditions are also evidence of a weak unity. The four might be more inclined to set up a loose long-term bond for the “prudent pursuit of their national interest” (as Hans Morgenthau would have said). “Dreaming with BRICs” acquires a renewed political sense. Other emerging countries such as South Africa or Mexico.org Global Financial inteGritY 14 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER A Program of the Center for International Policy 15 . However. since its inception. facilitating strategic partnerships. The BRIC is at the moment more of a financial driver. becomes real in its consequences. from a purely financial and market-driven definition. needs to be paired with domestic challenges of sizable proportion: Brazil’s economic. Their alignment bases are chiefly political-economic. then to evolve in a constrictive framework such as ASEAN. how politically powerful is the BRIC idea as a whole? More fundamentally. however. there might be far more 21st century savvy realism underpinning the BRIC than many commentators concede. has a quite substantial amount of ‘soft power’ in world affairs: as a recent report by Bloomberg Businessweek stressed. the concept. These countries came together in 2009 for their cooperation yields greater international advantages than their singular agency. Russia. the four have made some attempts to come to a coordinated geopolitical clout. GFI is leading the way in efforts to curtail illicit financial flows and enhance global development and security. To learn more. and the relative strength of its follow-up reports. the title of Goldman Sachs’ 2003 report on this quartet’s path to 2050. several commentators and policymakers have alternatively picked ‘winners’ and ‘drivers’ of the group.” In its simplest understanding. are set to overtake the current richest countries in the world. we should not forget how the BRIC idea is an exogenous quadrilateral process more or less imposed (or at least prompted if one has to factor in the previous existence of diplomatic dialogue amongst the four) by the success of Goldman Sachs’ definition. The commonplace political logic that the BRIC. an economic matter. As a political institution. Conscious of this rising aggregate prominence. Glosny pointed out in a December 2009 Polity article on this theme. visit www.The Fragility of Bric | by MIChELE ACUTO | D espite its growing popularity amongst diplomats. not just as a forum for economic discussion.gfip. and India’s large internal ethnic clashes all delineate a very difficult map towards a stable set of foundations for the quartet. and thus by proxy the four aggregated within it. for instance. NYU economist Nouriel Roubini has argued Indonesia should join the bloc to replace Russia. the BRIC can truly move (as the four stated in their fairly loose statement in 2009) towards a more equitable and multipolar world. Yet. This. is a key driver of what the four might do in both economic and political terms— and the BRICs are certainly far away from a coherent quadrilateral position on this. Overall. As MIT political scientist Michael A. While the four now hold some sporadic quadrilateral talks. for its economic and diplomatic roots. the BRIC has grown to represent a somewhat solid reality in much international politics lingo. but more in its capacity of selffulfilling prophecy: a situation that. is that BRIC should not be mistaken for ASEAN or the EU. and corruption problems. In putting forward solutions. in June 2009. Goldman Sachs. these have not been developed upon a common communitarian spirit but rather out of convenience for the comprehensive reach and international clout of the ‘bloc’.” The relationship with the United States. the BRIC is a substantially more fragile entity than the widespread lingo on this rising bloc assumes. “the space for future BRIC cooperation is limited by fundamental differences amongst the BRICs. this term was to represent the four main emerging markets that. has just stated how the Union’s trade agenda is to progressively shift its focus towards BRIC countries in the years to come. What this means in practice. as the agency repeatedly argued since then. At the same time. Symptomatic to this is the main source and major defendant of the classification. Suggestive of this are the recent calls from both within and outside the quartet for new members to join the BRIC. domestic challenges. as well as the title of Jim O’Neill’s original 2001 paper: “The World Needs Better Economic BRICs. thus furthering more adversarial takes to intra-BRIC relations. once defined as real. the ‘BRIC’ idea has been. The real value of the definition is not so much in its financial labeling. and insecure cooperation are tantamount to the fragility of the bloc. as Glosny reminds us. The EU Trade Commissioner Karel de Gucht. the BRIC’s arguable international role as a coherent whole. represents a textbook case of neoliberal internationalism is shaky. China’s widely-criticized political freedom problems. In this sense. Politically. as well as developed but often underestimated regional powerhouses such as South Korea also drew favor. as they met in Yekaterinburg. whose relationship with America is shifty at best.
After six weeks of learning Arabic in Cairo. p 16 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 17 .Dialoguing in Egypt A Gallery of Moments | By kaTy doyle | hotographer Katy Doyle has visited Egypt several times as a Dialogue of Civilizations student at Northeastern University. Here. Her latest project involved photographing a temple in Abydos. she moved in with an Egyptian family to work alongside an archaeologist. her lense captures city life in Cairo and life near the ruins.
The pyramids of Giza on a stormy day. Sunrise in Abydos. 18 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 19 . The guesthouse has reflected windows. They spend hours looking at themselves in the mirror and tapping on the window. The staff of an archaeological house filming a murder mystery movie. A man selling souvenirs near the pyramids. BoTToM LEFT. The local guards stay in this shack during the day to escape from the sun. Inside a mosque in Cairo. oPPoSITE PAGE ToP. Aerial view of Luxor from a hot air balloon. BoTToM LEFT. which mirror the hoopoes reflection. LEFT. BoTToM RIGHT. BoTToM RIGHT. A boy sitting outside a mosque in Bab Zuwayla. RIGHT. The ancient temples are often times the homes of small birds. nEXT PAGE ToP.FRonT CoVER. ToP.
20 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 21 .
Jeffrey reveals Philby’s role in operations to infiltrate the Soviet Union via the Caucasus and his attempts to hinder probes into Russian spying in Canada. Jeffrey’s records also point to Philby’s scheming as contributing to the failure of a joint mission with the CIA to overthrow Enver Hoxha’s communist government in Albania. this was dropped after reports that bear fat had indeed been offered to a dog and was promptly ‘eaten faster than a week’s meat ration’ Just before the onset of World War II.” who nurtured the agency from its infancy through World War I. provides a stunning example. widely respected historian” and an “expert in this period and known for his independent judgment. does not gloss over major failures. To clear the air and get to the truth. an exhaustive account that exposes the world’s first spy agency. Among their concerns was whether or not the milk bottles left on the doorstep for the Prime Minister and other leading officials might be a target of chemical tampering. though an official history. to pen an authoritative history of the agency from its pre-World War I inception to the onset of the Cold War. The result is Jeffrey’s authoritative The Secret History of MI6: 1909-1949. the first “C. Those more interested in spycraft may find interest in stories about Kim Philby. read on and there is much to discover about a spy service that. In true Bond fashion. warts and all.” Scarlett expressed his hope that Jeffrey’s account will further enhance MI6’s reputation 22 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 23 . He also pointed out “the astonishingly small resources available to the Service. the sexy (stories of a real-life interwar agent who James Bond’s character was likely based upon) and the bizarre (plans—later rejected—to raise funds by selling confiscated opium). especially in the interwar period. with the benefit of hindsight. The accounts of his never-ending battles for funding and his maneuvers to fend off hostile takeovers from competing bureaucracies reveal the harsh reality of building a spy agency—literally —from the ground up. the famous communist double-agent. officially did not even exist. The book. it was suggested in 1918 that the agency set up its own £1 million endowment—which would have had the added benefit of allowing the service to avoid accountability to elected officials and the public. The book. as was the suggestion to use bear or cheetah fat to awaken “atavistic memories” and cause dogs to run away. History buffs will appreciate accounts of MI6’s involvement in nearly every major political development of the war and interwar years. Scarlett cited the success of the agency’s operations in the First World War. few understand its place in history. Osmic acid was tried. In an interview with the Diplomatic Courier. experiments were conducted to find ways to throw guard dogs off their trails. commissioned by MI6. The first 50 or so pages are so packed with facts. Some other interesting points include: Fearful of MI6’s funding drying up from a future unsympathetic government. However. former chief of the service from 2004 to 2009. It’s hard not to have sympathy for Mansfield Cumming.” In 1948.” Asked what audiences might find particularly surprising when thumbing through Secret History. Secret History details how even MI6 Stewart Menzies defended Philby. While there are many who have heard of Britain’s famous spy agency. the agency pondered whether Nazis might try to attack Britain with chemical weapons. Upon landing. Yet. a tough book to crack. until recently. a professor of British history. he hailed the book an “authoritative account” and praised Keith Jeffrey “an experienced. his colleague sprinkled a few drops of Hennessy on him to enhance his “party-goer’s image. fOREsT | a sk the man on the street his first impression when he hears the term “MI6” and you will likely get one of two responses: a blank stare or a James Bond reference. in 1941 a Dutch agent was fitted with a special rubber wetsuit that allowed him to land ashore near a casino in Schevening in full tuxedo.Book Unmasks MI6’s Secret History | by bRIAn j. and MI6’s work with the famous Bletchley Park codebreakers. correspondence and winding paragraphs that it’s difficult to discern a narrative or tell where the book is heading. writing of the “valuable work” he carried out for Menzies and the agency. Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service—better known as MI6—commissioned Queens University academic Keith Jeffrey. to any reader willing to slog through more than 700 pages of the mundane (endless pages devoted to bureaucratic wrangling). The suggestion was eventually dismissed. has earned accolades by Sir John Scarlett. Even fewer understand the complex circumstances that led to its rise to prominence in the First and Second World Wars. The case of Kim Philby. he was given unrestricted and unprecedented access to the MI6’s secret archives. admittedly. For five years. It is.
[Dc]: Many will be surprised to read about MI-6’s past operations against the United States. rather than fascism. the Service must take a broad view of world events and look into the long term as well as the immediate future. As regards other surprises. [Dc]: Jeffrey touches on past criticisms of your agency for focusing too myopically on communism in the interwar years as fascist threats grew across Europe. Are there lessons that can be learned from that experience and applied in today’s intelligence community? [SJS]: One of the revelations from the History is that the Service’s supposed obsession with communism. Go to ba. He has expressed confidence in his judgments about the Service and its activities over these forty years. The rationale for this work is clearly explained in the book. The full Interview with Sir John Scarlett. the Chief of SIS. and I do not expect this to happen for many years. If there is a lesson for us today.bOOk REVIEW | SeCReT hiSToRy of mi6 and—while the service has long recruited from among the best and brightest Britons—perhaps a few more may be interested after taking a look at the first 40 years of the agency’s history.so they could conduct business face-to-face.com/facetoface to connect with other businesses. [Diplomatic courier]: Can we consider Jeffery’s work the definitive history of the MI-6 prior to 1950? [SIR JoHn SCARLETT]: Yes.” [Dc] will be surprised by the astonishingly small resources available to the Service. Deals were signed. Admiral Sir Hugh Sinclair. which included the purchase of Bletchley Park. expert in this period and known for his independent judgment. I hope this authoritative History will enhance further the Service’s reputation. laid the foundations for Service achievements after 1939. Before World War II the United Kingdom had no strategic alliance or long-term security commitments with the United States. but had so little money. MI6’s Director from 2004-2009. What else do you expect audiences may find especially surprising in this book? [SJS]: I know that people will be surprised by these operations against the United States. Once Hitler came to power. 25 . [Dc]: Even as former director of MI6 is there anything in Jeffrey’s account that genuinely surprised you about your agency’s history? [SJS]: The astonishingly small resources available to the Service. Now it's your turn. just a few years after the Service’s foundation. BUSINESS IS DONE BETTER FACE-TO-FACE. especially in the interwar period. Connections were made. I think all readers Last year we took over 600 professionals to London and beyond . [Dc]: Do you think—or hope—that accounts such as this will inspire more of Britain’s brightest to pursue careers in the intelligence services? [SJS]: Of course.S. He was given unrestricted access to the Service archive for 1909-1949 (incomplete though it is). Commentators on Professor Jeffery's History since its publication in September have accepted it as an authoritative account of the subject. make the most of this book now that it is here. to hear our success stories and to start creating your own. widely respected historian. These preparations. That is the continuing strength of MI6. Professor Jeffery is an experienced. but they shouldn't be. Whatever the immediate threats and difficulties. can we expect the second volume—including accounts of MI6’s role in the Cold War —any time soon? Don’t count on it—at least according to Scarlett. The book records how all work against the U. MI6's role in the early work of the code breakers at Bletchley Park and support for that work throughout World War II is not widely understood. By 1937 he was writing that war was inevitable and making important preparations for war. recognized the possible implications. [Dc] EXPERIENCE WHAT WE KNOW. The scale was modest and not especially successful. There are no plans to repeat this exercise for the years before 1950.” “So. was stopped for good in 1938—72 years ago. about the book Secret History MI6. [Dc]: When can we expect the definitive history of the MI6 from1950 and beyond? [SJS]:There are no plans for further volumes beyond 1950 and I do not expect this to happen for many years. it is one that should apply to all serious intelligence agencies at any time: a world class intelligence agency cannot afford to become a single issue organization. 24 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER ©2010 British Airways Plc. “There are no plans for further volumes beyond 1950. Now that the first four decades are out of the way. especially in the interwar period. make the most of this book now that it is here. But for many years we have recruited from among the brightest and best of our citizens. has been overstated. So. Finally. I would mention the scale and success of our operations in World War I.for free .
Although Brazil’s influence and leadership have been propelled through its regional economic growth. For this it looked past the neighborhood. Considering these elements. There were also natural catastrophes and environmental issues. Brazil’s ability to lead its own self was questioned. Brazil’s bilateral relationships are also crucial—and that does not mean just bilateral relations with direct neighbors. Mercosur—the agreement on a common market established in 1991 between Argentina. the two fellow BRICs display extraordinary cooperation. One facet of it is the strategic cooperation with the other BRICs. Brazil’s strategy of multilateralism is born out of political necessity. Though they are each other’s competitors. however. the drug-dominated slums where millions of Brazil’s underbelly were living under the direst circumstances. Brazil hosted a BRIC summit. it is easy to see why Brazil was poised to be a natural leader. According to tradition. Brazil’s role as regional leader was sealed when it joined Mercado Comun del Sur. this rising power was plagued by recurrent economic crises. On the other hand. Brazil’s rise was pushed forward by more factors. There are still disputes and trade asymmetries between its members. Not very long ago. Now that Brazil seems to be in its pinnacle of power.S. in South America. among them the petroleum crisis in 1973 and the external debt crisis in 1982. Paraguay. Both countries work together on a number of issues such as energy security. Brazil always possessed huge potential. Brazil’s prominence on the world stage is connected to the rise of China. It focused on strong ties with the U. Brazil. After the Second World War it expressed its wish to have one of the permanent seats on the UN Security Council. In 2008. where even the military police at times did not make it out alive. The most important bilateral relationship with a non-neighbor is with the United States. Even though it realized how regional cooperation was of the utmost essence for its position.razil’s regional leadership runs in tandem with its global position. Brazil has always had an integrationist approach and has focused on strengthening relations with South America. Its multilateralism is multifaceted. In reality. [Dc] 27 . the economic integration through Mercosur lags behind political cohesion. It is the biggest country. Brazil kept fostering its ambition to have a strong position on a global scale too. It has been mostly Brazil’s compelling economic position that has strengthened its position in the region. Brazil has always had phenomenal mineral and natural resources. raw materials. its successes are easy to acclaim. It could have worked out very differently for Brazil. Brazilian importers were motivated to buy from immediate neighboring countries rather than from other countries. the revitalizing of diplomacy played a pivotal role. in particular Brazilian diplomacy. Specifically 26 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER B Brazil’s leadership in South America | By SoNgul aRSlaN | during Lula da Silva’s presidency. This is a big disadvantage for Brazil when compared to India and China. and terrorism. historically while shying away from its South American neighbors. add to that. There are sufficient domestic issues and challenges to deal with. One is the unsolved gaps in education. After all. The country will find itself in an important crossroad as Roussef contemplates looking inward—to invest in Brazil’s education system—or seizing the opportunity to consolidate regional power and hence a global leadership position— by continuing on the diplomatic path that Lula started. Brazil’s financial and diplomatic resources were not strong enough but this goal was never far away from Brazil’s mind.S. How will Brazil fare after Lula? Lula was succeeded by his party member Dilma Roussef in the Fall of 2010. narcotics. DIPLoMATIC LEADERSHIP. when the majority of the world was hampered by the crisis and governments had to step in to save their banks from collapsing. two big oilfields discovered recently. Brazil’s diplomatic perspective has been a multilateral one. and Uruguay—as a trading bloc has become the largest in South America. possibilities of default and fear of the devaluation of its currency. and resources from Brazil that the country’s growth is fueled. The core elements for success were there and in retrospect. the real. Brazil was minimally impacted. Another significant bilateral relationship is that between China and Brazil. Brazil’s economic growth has been significant. when they disagree on policies regarding Honduras and Iran. Brazil’s focus has never been entirely on domestic economics. let alone be a candidate for leadership in the regional or even global scale. Crime was rampant in the favelas. Brazil’s fate is interconnected with involvement and outreach to its neighbors. Earlier this year. BRAZIL AFTER LULA. It is through China’s demand for commodities. It is rumored Roussef does not care for international leadership. with the biggest population and the highest GDP. This relationship is positive but complicated. Brazil stands up against the U.
Second. former President Lula.S. and the Brazilian Development Bank invests in electric energy in Paraguay.5 billion to $6. In July 2010. Brazil continues to expand trade with Iran and is Iran’s top trade partner in Latin America. Bahrain. Qatar. This has the potential to cause many economical waves. Brazil is adamant in forming new economic opportunities in the developing world. it has genuine aspirations of being a pivotal player in international affairs. Brazil has also developed other trade relationships with specific countries that have raised a few eyebrows in the international community. Jordan. attributing 40 percent of its energy consumption to renewable sources. Brazil is a leading voice internationally in the energy and green movements. In March 2010 Brazil finalized a trade agreement with Israel. First. according to the IMF. In the last six years alone. In essence. Lebanon and Syria B has escalated from $2. France. Brazil also spearheaded trade talks with Palestine and the South American trading bloc Mercosur (Argentina. Trade within Mercosur and the Andean Community (Colombia. Interestingly. agriculture. Bolivia and Peru) has dramatically increased between 2000 and 2009—86 percent and 253 percent. [Dc] 28 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 29 . respectively. Kuwait. In regards to Iran. natural gas from Bolivia. Just last year trade with Iran grew by 4. trade between Brazil and Saudi Arabia. According to Palestinian officials. and medicine. Brazil has recently purchased 50 military helicopters and five submarines from France for supposedly offensive military strategies. Ecuador. it is soon to leapfrog Italy in 2011 and become the 7th largest. cementing Brazil’s status as Israel’s largest trading partner in Latin America. Adopting the forces of globalization can continue to open new paths for Brazil.. it comes to nobody’s surprise that Brazil has become the leading voice of South America. and it appears more is to come. Brazil and Kenya signed six agreements as a foundation for future investments in various fields.89 billion. and further reinvigorate the middle class within its’ own borders its future looks promising. If Brazil continues to increase trade internationally. What Brazil has done differently than other Latin American countries is it vehemently looked for new markets near and abroad to increase exports. Brazil is the world’s fourth largest food exporter. Brazil. This figure indicates that Brazilian trade in the Middle East is robust. one of the agreements will allow 5. where it is expected to increase trade in the sectors of education.3 billion. and it offers a glimpse of Brazil’s new posture in the international arena. At the United Nations. Brazilian companies have also invested in Colombian oil and mining. due to the fact that Mexico and Brazil are the largest economies in Latin America. enabling it to provide a fresh way of doing business internationally. Oman. trade between the two countries could exceed $200 million a year. science.000 Kenyan students to study at a Brazilian university in various fields. Brazil is not simply driven by commercial interests. Brazil has campaigned for a Security Council seat next to Great Britain. Just by looking at the sheer numbers. Together they make up 74 percent of the region’s gross domestic product. Why is Brazil so eager to establish trade relationships near and abroad? The answer might be twofold. Brazil and China signed new trade deals that include a plan to build a new steel plant in Brazil by the Chinese.Brazil’s trade Diplomacy | by OsCAR MOnTEALEgRE | razil carries the mantle of being the 8th largest economy in the world and. Brazil and Mexico announced the start of negotiations that could lead to a “strategic economic integration accord” between the two countries. which gives it an opportunity to enable dialogue and cross-cultural exchanges through trade diplomacy. Russia. unsuccessfully attempted to broker an alternative to UN sanctions to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. and vastly in Argentina’s potassium. Paraguay and Uruguay). and China. For example. Brazil’s trade policy has a foreign policy element of strengthening (or perhaps improving) Brazil’s influence. with ambitions of spreading its brand globally. With a $2 trillion economy. It purchases petroleum from Venezuela and Argentina. U. In April 2010.3 percent to $1. To add more muscle to its current stature. and is the world’s 16th largest oil producer. the transportation infrastructure in Peru. In November 2010. India and South Korea. Brazil’s economy surpasses Russia. expand its economy. Brazil is a good neighbor when it comes to regional trade.
The creation of Russia’s Silicon Valley clone is an effort on Medvedev’s part to stimulate and encourage growth of privatization and create opportunities for Russian entrepreneurs to partner with foreign corporations in this economic development zone. The severe impact of the fires which caused more than 50 deaths and destroyed more than one third of Russia’s wheat crop offers an opportunity for the country’s leaders to rethink its priorities and devote urgent attention to becoming a global leader as Russia modernizes its economy. 30 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER t Under Boris Yeltsin. Finally. “Under the communists…. jR. seeking a joint venture with a foreign partner. An anonymous blogger from the rural Tver region northwest of Moscow captured the mood of many Russians when stating. economic inequality and enhanced criminal activity. In order to create an economic and regulatory framework that promotes and encourages private sector growth. The effectiveness of these measures was undermined because of strong resistance by influential command economy politicians in the Russian Parliament as well as a major disagreement with the Central Bank over the level of spending. the ponds and the fire engine are gone and the bell has been replaced by a telephone that has not been connected. discourage the growth of monopolies.we had three fire ponds. Taxes should be transparent and less burdensome to small businesses in Russia. Barriers to imports and foreign investment must be eliminated. there must be strong emphasis placed on corporate management and directors to be accountable to their shareholders by increasing the percentage ownership of foreign shareholders in these privatized companies. Fairness and 31 . according to Nikolay Petrov. A major impediment to privatization and entrepreneurship in Russia is a public perception that these concepts are linked to industrial corruption. | he wildfires and heat wave that recently ravaged Central Russia brought Russia’s super centralized political and fiscal system to the forefront of the country’s domestic agenda. and encourage price competition. has been relatively successful. production remained closely tied to the state and when confronted with political pressures Mikhail Gorbachev balked and caved in to the proponents of traditional central planning. Boris Fedorov. Medvedev must exert strong personal and political leadership throughout the whole process. The super-centralized political and fiscal system traditionally enacted by Russia’s leadership has meant that resources meant to tackle the crisis have reached the regions too slowly and that communication was lacking or non-existent. Once Putin and then Dmitry Medvedev came to power in Russia. the commitment to strong privatization of state owned industries has been a major priority. seeking foreign partners. but there was one”. when converting state owned enterprises to private sector companies. It has required the Chinese corporate officers to allow the foreign partner to have a greater percentage of ownership (up to 49 percent) in an effort to grow the company.” The goal of increased privatization in Russia is based on the promotion of policies that are designed to achieve market based systems that improve social welfare and lead to integration into the world economy. a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center think-tank. Medvedev recognized that building a strong and flexible economic base is crucial for Russia to be competitive with China and the United States in the global economic arena. Indeed. especially when they come to the U. Farmers were encouraged to lease land for agricultural production outside of the system and businesses were encouraged to trade directly with foreign companies.privatization in russia | by RALPh WInnIE. Privatization initially occurred under Mikhail Gorbachev with the establishment of private/co-operative commercial banks and the creation of a domestic securities and commodities exchange. the wildfires have created a unique opportunity for Russia’s leaders to advance its newly proclaimed commitment to economic privatization and energy efficiency. and Anatoly Chubais wielded significant power and led the effort to reduce government spending.S. “The fact that the death toll is much higher than in other countries where such fires occur…shows the system of management is absolutely dysfunctional. its true. However. Medvedev must make a commitment to withdrawing subsidies on various industries to ensure free and fair trade. restrain growth in the money supply and stabilize the ruble. The sentiment echoed by the blogger reflects the growing public anger at the authorities’ struggle to slow the spread of these wildfires which have destroyed thousands of homes and destroyed acres of forest. this model of converting state owned enterprises into private companies. ensure profitability and create an understanding among the Chinese about how to become better capitalists in a global market. thereby ending the state’s historical monopoly. Today. free market reformers such as Yegor Gaidor. In China. As life in Moscow has begun to return to normal. there was a bell people rang if a fire started and…a fire engine-one between three villagers.
failed to live up to their obligations as stewards of the land and performed badly. will aid Medvedev in his endeavors to bring foreign investment into the country. which has successfully integrated and implemented a free market economic system within its communist hierarchical structure. GUM. with over 18. where state trucking co-operatives were each required to sell roughly 20 percent of their fleet in an open auction. China. A successful model of privatization in Russia has been achieved through the deregulation of the largest state owned department store. In China. half of GUM’s major co-owners are foreign investors and profits grew to R40 billion from 1993-1994. Unit 1. Like the U. including the only six for which engineering. The improvement in the quality of life for the average Russian is also an essential benefit. and self-sustaining private sector will improve Russia’s position and image as a world power. This system has achieved a level of peace and prosperity. the AP1000 design has been selected as the technology of choice for more than half of the new plants announced. and socially for the Russian Federation.S. with the assistance of multinational law firms which are well-established in Russia. such as privatized logging companies. stability and engendered strong support for the Chinese government which was lacking as recently as 20 years ago and led to massive demonstrations. Some of the most innovative efforts at privatization in Russia have taken place at the municipal level involving the World Bank program in Nizhy Novgorod. four new AP1000 plants are currently under construction and are being built with the highest standards in safety and quality. broad-based. [Dc] The Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plant is the technology of choice for active and emerging new plant markets across the globe.westinghousenuclear. This was designed to ensure Russia would be one of the only countries in the world with the potential to sharply increase grain production. critics of privatization in Russia were quick to point out the failure of Nizhy Novogorod during the wildfires because a new Forest Code enacted in 2006 dismantled an agricultural and federal forest safety system. and the fair and aggressive collection of taxes due are necessary prerequisites for the flourishing of a self-sustaining private sector in Russia.com 32 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 33 W E S T I N G H O U S E E L E C T R I C C O M PA N Y L L C | P H O T O G R A P H b Y M A d A M E C H E N Y I N G . politically. Preference was given to current occupants. While coordinating reform measures has taken time to achieve a measured degree of success in Russia. In the United States. Since agriculture was one of four industries being privatized by the Kremlin. The farmers and forest tenants. both economically. designed to create an independent. Consequently. clean and reliable electricity. Medvedev can only look to its neighbor and competitor. opportunities for corruption that occur when economic power is concentrated into the hands of a few oligarchs could be greatly reduced. Elimination of subsidies. This program has not been applied on a national basis as it has tended to run counter to other government programs involving large subsidies and a continued leading role for collectives and co-operative farms in the agricultural sector. Nizhy Novogorod also experimented with agricultural reform. Medvedev recognizes that a well conceived economic program. the continuing development of privatization must be part of an overall reform package involving continued deregulation. valuation of the land and equipment was transparent and decisions on how to organize production was left to the bidders in auction. thereby transferring governance and responsibility to regional authorities. This program mandated the forced sale of assets of companies undergoing privatization and occurred through the deregulation of trucking. transparency should influence public perception in Russia that privatization will create jobs and economic opportunities for the working public. Check us out at www. By shifting more of Russia’s economy into the hands of small business. According to a report issued by the CATO Institute. and a strong and viable monetary policy. progressive taxation. This program involved the dismantling of collective farms and occupants were issued title certificates which permitted them to acquire both land and equipment in auction.000 shareholders. Continuing to strengthen the rule of law. the reduction of onerous and burdensome taxes. procurement and construction contracts have been signed. Westinghouse nuclear technology will help provide future generations with safe. with the first scheduled to come online in 2013. Russia must control its deficit to ensure stabilization of prices and competitive exchange rates. The resulting effect of this program produced a group of private truck owners capable of competing with established enterprises..W estinghouse AP1000 Online in 2013 Setting of the containment vessel second ring at Sanmen. In Russia.
” Eberstadt observed during a recent presentation of his book. The country’s dwindling population could make it hard for Moscow to implement its economic and diplomatic agendas in the decades to come. according to a prominent American population expert.) to an extraordinarily high degree for a country at peace and with a high level of socioeconomic development. Implications. He noted Central European countries rapidly recovered and improved on their Communist-era life expectancies. [Dc] 34 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 35 . Although there have been some modest improvements in some demographic trends over the last few years. Compounding that problem is the premature mortality rate. etc. the labor force has shrunk more rapidly than the population as a whole. stalled in the mid-1960s. Russians suffer from high rates of AIDS and other infectious diseases. reducing Russia’s economic growth prospects for years to come. well-educated population. while Moscow’s hold over the resource-rich but people-poor Russian Far East will continue to decline. but these only account for a small percent of deaths. the Russian Federation is no stranger to bouts of depopulation. Russians also suffer from violent deaths (injuries. a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). not those with a moderately wealthy. Russia has followed a uniquely morbid path. “Russia has taken us where no man has gone before. Life expectancy among Russians rose rapidly in the 1950s and early 1960s. According to Eberstadt. life expectancy at birth for an average Russian male is roughly 62 years. readily acknowledged that neither he nor standard social science theory could fully explain Russia’s catastrophe. the average Russian is aging. while Western countries that suffered major economic losses during the Great Depression did not experience a Russian-style population catastrophe. In the past. Russia's fertility rate has declined dramatically since the end of the Communist era r and is now considerably below replacement level. Russia is experiencing a unique phenomenon— an extremely high mortality rate for a relatively developed country. Whatever the cause. Eberstadt thinks matters might take another alarming turn in the notso-distant future. “Unfortunately. the current crisis differs from the three previous declines since the early 1900s by not occurring during a time of war or famine. and the increase in disease and deaths has been greatest among the working age population. Today.russia’s Demographic Time Bomb | by RIChARD WEITz | ussia is experiencing an unprecedented demographic crisis.” In addition. noted that while many countries in Europe and elsewhere are grappling with the twin dilemmas of aging populations and declining birth rates. Russia’s demographic crisis “has demonstrable and grievous humanitarian costs and manifestly adverse economic implications. which is roughly four times higher than the population weight- ed rates in Western European countries. whose presentation was hosted by AEI in Washington. As a result. Yet.” Eberstadt noted. which resembles those found in impoverished developing countries. But this aberration only accounts for a small number of Russia’s almost 7 million excess deaths since 1991. Eberstadt. the Russian military will have difficulty finding soldiers. and then experienced a sharp decline after 1990. A more serious problem arises from Russians’ cardiovascular disease rate. For a female it is 72. DC. Nicholas Eberstadt. Russia’s eroding human resource base will challenge Moscow’s ability to achieve its domestic and foreign-policy priorities. Russia quickly rebounded from its population dips. Eberstadt rejected the obvious explanation that the trauma associated with the Soviet collapse was a major cause of excess deaths. Russia’s Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions. The book was published in the spring of 2010. murders. Causes. The number of future mothers is declining.
china’s rise, india’s challenge
| by hARsh V PAnT |
ith the world riveted by Chinese aggression against Japan and Southeast Asian states in recent months, one country was not surprised: India. After all, New Delhi has been grappling with the challenge of China’s rapid rise for some time. Bilateral ties between China and India nosedived so dramatically last year that Indian strategists were even predicting ‘the year of the Chinese attack on India’; it was suggested that China would attack India by 2012 primarily to divert attention from its growing domestic troubles. This suggestion received widespread coverage in the Indian media, which was more interested in sensationalizing the issue than interrogating the claims. Meanwhile, the official Chinese media picked up the story and gave it another spin. It argued that while a Chinese attack on India is highly unlikely, a conflict between the two neighbors could occur in one scenario: an aggressive Indian policy toward China about their border dispute, forcing China to take military action. The Chinese media went on to speculate that the ‘China will attack India’ line might just be a pretext for India to deploy more troops to the border areas. A GRoWInG UnEASE. This curious exchange reflects an uneasiness that exists between the two Asian giants as they continue their ascent in the global inter-state hierarchy. Even as they sign loftily worded documents year after year, the distrust between the two is actually growing at an alarming rate. True, economic cooperation and bilateral political, as well as socio-cultural exchanges are at an all time high; China is India’s largest trading partner. Yet, this cooperation has done little to assuage each country’s concerns about the other’s intentions. The two sides are locked in a classic security dilemma, where any action taken by one is immediately interpreted by the other as a threat to its interests. At the global level, the rhetoric is all about cooperation, and indeed the two sides have worked together on climate change, global trade negotiations and demanding a restructuring of global financial institutions in view of the global economy’s shifting center of gravity. At the bilateral level, however, mounting tensions reached an impasse last year, when China took its territorial dispute with India all the way to the Asian Development Bank. There, China blocked India’s application for a loan that included money for development projects in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China continues to
claim as part of its own territory. Also, the suggestion by the Chinese to the U.S. Pacific fleet commander last year that the Indian Ocean should be recognized as a Chinese sphere of influence has raised hackles in New Delhi. China’s lack of support for the U.S.-India civilian nuclear energy cooperation pact, which it tried to block at the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), and its proPakistan position on anti-India terrorist groups operating on Pakistani soil, including the orchestrators of the November 2008 Mumbai attacks, have further strained ties. Sino-Indian frictions are growing, and the potential for conflict remains high. Alarm is rising in India because of frequent and strident Chinese claims about the Line of Actual Control in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, where Indians have complained of a dramatic rise in Chinese intrusions into Indian territory over the last few years, most along the border in Arunachal Pradesh, which China refers to as “Southern Tibet”. China has recently upped the ante on the border issue. It has been regularly protesting against the Indian prime minister’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, asserting its claims over the territory. What has caught most observers of Sino-Indian ties by surprise, however, is the vehemence with which Beijing has contested recent Indian administrative and political actions in the state, even denying visas to Indian citizens of Arunachal Pradesh. The recent rounds of boundary negotiations have been a disappointing failure, with a growing perception in India that China is less willing to adhere to earlier political understandings about how to address the boundary dispute. Even the rhetoric has degenerated to such an extent that a Chinese analyst connected to China’s Ministry of National Defense claimed in an article last year that China could “dismember the so-called ‘Indian Union’ with one little move” into as many as 30 states. Pakistan, has always been a crucial foreign policy asset for China, but with India’s rise and U.S.-India rapprochement, its role in China’s grand strategy is bound to grow even further. Not surprisingly, recent revelations about China’s shift away from a three-decades old cautious approach on Jammu and Kashmir, its increasing military presence in Pakistan, planned infrastructure linking Xinjiang and Gwadar, issuing stapled visas to residents of Jammu and Kashmir, and supplying nuclear reactors to Pakistan, all confirm a new intensity behind China’s old strategy of using Pakistan to secure its interests in the region.
InDIA’S FoRMIDABLE CHALLEnGE. While it has not yet achieved the economic and political profile that China enjoys regionally and globally, India is increasingly bracketed with China as a rising or emerging power - or even a global superpower. Indian elites who have been obsessed with Pakistan for more than 60 years suddenly have found a new object of fascination. India's main security concern now is not the increasingly decrepit state of Pakistan but an ever more assertive China, a shift that is widely viewed inside India as one that can facilitate better strategic planning. India's defeat at Chinese hands in 1962 shaped the Indian elite's perceptions of China, and they are unlikely to alter them anytime soon. China is thus viewed by India as a growing, aggressive nationalistic power whose ambitions are likely to reshape the contours of the regional and global balance of power with deleterious consequences for Indian interests. Indian policymakers continue to believe Beijing is not a short-term threat to India but needs to be watched over the long-term. Indian defense officials are increasingly warning in rather blunt terms about the disparity between the two Asian powers. The Indian naval chief has warned India neither has “the capability nor
the intention to match China force for force” in military terms, while the former Indian air chief has suggested China posed more of a threat to India than Pakistan. China’s recent hardening toward India could well be a function of its own internal vulnerabilities, but that is hardly a consolation to Indian policymakers who have to respond to an Indian public that increasingly wants the country to assert itself in the region and beyond. India is rather belatedly gearing up to respond with its own diplomatic and military overtures, setting the stage for a Sino-Indian strategic rivalry. Both India and China have a vested interest in stabilizing their relationship by seeking out issues on which their interests converge, but pursuing mutually desirable interests does not inevitably produce satisfactory solutions to strategic problems. A troubled history coupled with the structural uncertainties engendered by their simultaneous rise is propelling the two Asian giants into a trajectory that they might find rather difficult to navigate in the coming years. SinoIndian ties have entered turbulent times, and they are likely to remain there for the foreseeable future. [Dc]
36 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER
citizens use technology to Fight corruption in india
| by DAnA LIEbELsOn |
ecently, Yuvaraj Manoharan attempted to register a flat-screen TV company in India. He was asked by officials at the local sales tax office to attach an additional 9,300 rupees (about $200) with his application—and split the bribe into four envelopes. He did not comply. Instead, he attached “Zero Rupee” notes, obtained from the anti-corruption website 5th Pillar. The bemused officials processed his application the next day. In India, technology is empowering ordinary citizens and revolutionizing how corruption is found, tracked and eradicated. The term Gandhigiri, coined from a Bollywood film, can be used to describe this modern revival of passive resistance in India. When it comes to finding innovative ways to monitor unscrupulous officials, U.S. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Singh have a lot to learn from India’s civil society. A website launched in August called “I Paid a Bribe” (IPaB) uses crowdsourcing technology to provide a window into corruption across the country. The site allows users to anonymously distinguish whether they paid, accepted or declined a bribe. They can also submit details such as the bribe’s location and value. The site receives 25-50 reports a day and has logged over 120,000 hits since its launch. “Every citizen who reports a story on our website about paying a bribe is angry enough to begin to resist it,” said the site’s founder, T. Raghunandan. He has 26 years of experience as a high-ranking civil servant in the Indian administrative service. Crowdsourcing sites both supplement and surpass the government’s monitoring capabilities. The median age of Indians is about 25, and this group is trending towards online communication. In fighting corruption, these sites give users anonymity—a key factor that often inhibits citizens from reporting incidents. Another way civil society groups are using technology to promote accountability is through mobile phones. The country has over 700 million cell phone users. Recently, the Association for Democratic Reform (ADR) developed a text-messaging service that allows citizens to type in their zip code, and obtain background information on candidates running for office. A decade ago, citizens had little way to access a candidate’s criminal record or financial assets and liabilities. Now, users need only to text
the code-word MYNETA to get regular updates on their local candidates. Some say that these kinds of groups are doing a better job than the government when it comes to battling corruption. Ashwin Dasa, a citizen from Mangalore [a port city on the Arabian Sea] wrote from IpaB’s Facebook page: “The officials who take action against corruption are corrupt too. We can’t expect much from the government.” India has staggering corruption rates, according to an index—published by the civil society organization, Transparency International—measuring the perceived level of political corruption in 178 countries. Last year, India slid three spots to 87th place—lagging behind non-democratic countries like Saudi Arabia and Cuba. According to Trace International, an anti-corruption organization, over 90 percent of bribes in India originate from government officials. Presently, Singh’s administration is reeling from allegations of a $39 billion dollar scandal over proper sale of cell phone licenses. The cost of the scandal could potentially be equivalent to India’s annual defense budget. One of India’s major anti-corruption measures is the 2005 Right to Information (RTI) Act, which gives citizens the right to obtain documents and records from the government. Citizens can also appeal to the “vigilance wing” of any department, which is intended to investigate malpractice and fraud among officials. But groups like 5th Pillar say citizens don’t always understand how to use the RTI Act effectively. Even when citizens do use the Act, they often are disillusioned by its exclusions and lengthy processing times. Ashwin Dasa, a citizen from Bangaluru, [India’s third most populated city] wrote: “I believe that if you are going to you use the RTI, you will get into trouble for it. I stay away.” The group has tried to amend these issues by filing RTI petitions on long-pending applications, and bringing about public interest litigations if they feel a request is being neglected. The organization also conducts free training sessions on how to use the law. “We act as a bridge between skeptical citizens and the government anti-corruption agencies,” said Shobila Kali, a 5th Pillar member. “Citizens haven’t expected the government to act for the last three to four decades.” Recently however, there is evidence that the government has reinvigorated its anti
corruption efforts. India is preparing to ratify the UN Convention Against Corruption, seven years after it came into being. The Convention implements a wide range of anti-corruption measures, including a law that will deal with bribery in the private sector. Last month, India also announced a new partnership with the United States to promote technology and innovation on behalf of democratic accountability. In anticipation of the partnership, President Obama attended the Expo on Democracy and Open Government in Mum-
bai, where he met with both the Association for Democratic Reform and IpaB. His administration has since pledged $1 million to support civil society in India. Singh’s administration has made a matching commitment of in-kind assistance. Some believe that this combination of government and citizen support and technological innovation, is the key to ending corruption in India. “By constantly evolving new strategies and communication services, we can create a swarm-like resistance to corruption!” Raghunandan said. [Dc]
38 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER
bRIC | ChInA
china and the Realities of power in asia
| by DAVID k. sChnEIDER |
with the strategic objective of preventing the penetration of any political influences that might destabilize Xinjiang and Tibet, or leave China vulnerable to military coercion. Iran is the geopolitical anchor of this system. Sanctions that might lead to regime change in Tehran would threaten that order, and potentially China’s own internal security. Similar political realities have undermined another Washington attempt at a concert of powers; the Six Party Talks concerning the North Korean nuclear program. The Korean Peninsula is the strategic key to Manchuria and to China’s coastal security. The 1894 Sino-Japanese War was a contest between the two powers for influence in Korea. China’s loss led to a weakened Qing position in Manchuria and along the coast that invited further aggression from Japan, Russia and the European powers. In the Korean War in the 1950s, China spent, by some estimates, over a million lives to keep North Korea in existence and in the Sino-Soviet sphere. Beijing is unlikely to take any action to undermine a regime that acts as a buffer against the United States, South
(Diaoyutai Islands in Chinese), and the Spratly Islands, and to other economic resources in the Western Pacific, particularly oil. All of these actions are provocations against American allies and friends in the Pacific. Beijing is moreover beginning to back up these moves with the development and deployment of the naval power necessary to make them credible and lasting. China is developing a new anti-ship ballistic missile that can hit ships as far away as 1,000 miles, and is far more effective than a cruise missile. New weapons, plans to field a blue-water navy, complete with aircraft carriers, and new maritime relationships with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, are vivid signs that Beijing intends to assert itself not just as a regional hegemon, but as a naval power capable of operating all the way from the North Pacific to the Arabian Sea. Despite talk of joint U.S.-Chinese management of the global economy, Beijing has not embraced liberal capitalism. Markets are tools of the state being used to boost the efficiency of an otherwise inefficient socialist system, and not yet
.S.-China relations over the past two years have been a tale of two diplomacies. Secretary of State Clinton and Deputy Secretary Steinberg have been promoting a new American leadership designed to create “a new global architecture” that will “help integrate emerging powers into an international community with clear obligations and expectations.” American diplomacy, according to this vision, will help China and the other emerging nations to overcome the mistrust and suspicion that blocks international cooperation and burden sharing. The rise of a new global middle class and a shared sense of common threat and common interest will open new opportunities to make China and other emerging powers global and regional “anchors of stability” that cooperate, under American leadership, to uphold international law and universal rights. Yet, sharp ground-level exchanges over Iran, naval activities in the Yellow, East, and South China Seas and the valuation of the yuan are clear signs that the interests of the two powers are growing increasingly divergent. The inevitable failure to realize this vision of great power will not be due to mistrust, an inability to see common interests, or, as many suggest, the interference of domestic politics on both sides, but rather to the changing, and clashing, long-term realities of power in Asia.
“A concert of great powers can work only if all parties agree on the global order, and are satisfied with the distribution of military and economic power.”
A concert of great powers can work only if all parties agree on the global order, and are satisfied with the distribution of military and economic power. This was the case in the European order from the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815 to the beginning of the Crimean War in 1853—Metternich’s Concert of Europe. Contemporary Asia is in no way similar. Beijing and Washington do not share a common vision of the global political order. A critical mass of non-democratic governments, especially around its periphery, is geopolitically vital for China. These political imperatives underlie Beijing’s consistent refusal to cooperate with the United States’ proposed P5+1 alignment against the Iranian nuclear program. Maximum control over events in Central Asia has for centuries been essential to China’s security. Threats to China’s stability, and even political existence, traditionally have come from this region. The Han, Tang, Song and Qing dynasties were all fatally weakened upon the loss of this region to nonChinese tribes and Arab powers. In the twentieth century, tensions and clashes with Soviet power along China’s northern and western borders were a major factor in driving Beijing toward strategic entente with America in the 1970’s. Ever since the demise of the USSR, Beijing has been striving to integrate Central Asia into its political and economic orbit, Korea and Japan. Recent events show the opposite. China has boosted its economic aid and investment programs in North Korea, and Beijing has been particularly reluctant to use its considerable leverage over Pyongyang to force concessions on its nuclear weapons program. Indeed, Kim Jong Il’s recent visit to China, just as he is working to effect a smooth leadership transition, indicates that Beijing will remain deeply invested in the present North Korean regime. In military terms, China is clearly a revisionist power, profoundly dissatisfied with the present Asian security system, a reality that will limit prospects for any architecture of collective security. America projects power in Asia through military alliances with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, as well as through a new strategic relationship with India, and a system of bases in South Korea, Japan, Guam, and Diego Garcia. It keeps the sea lanes open, maintains stability on the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, and, in a larger frame, between China and Japan. The People’s Republic has always viewed this reality as strategic encirclement. China’s challenge to this order is accelerating with its new-found economic power. Beijing has declared the South China Sea a “core national interest” and has moved to enforce its territorial claims to the Senkaku Islands the foundation of a liberal, free market, economy. Full Chinese compatibility with world trade and financial norms would require interest rate liberalization, the free flow of capital, deregulation and privatization, protection of property rights, market exchange rates, and international trade and financial liberalization. Beijing has yet to fully harmonize with any of these norms. China's interest rates are determined by the state; the stock and capital markets are not fully open; the state still commands the largest sectors of heavy industry, transportation, communications and banking—what Lenin called the "commanding heights;" property rights do not inhere in the individual; land rights are not fully transferable; the yuan exchange rate is pegged to the dollar; and, although a WTO member, Beijing has proposed and negotiated with regional and other powers a number of trade agreements that do not adhere to WTO principles. China is beginning to tout a new economic development model that combines authoritarian politics with state-directed capitalism, a more managed, mercantile system, which—if it were to replace the present free trade system— would be less open, less global, and less free. While this clash of power realities does preclude a new and stable concert of powers in Asia, it does not call for a policy of containment against China. If the present Asian order does
40 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER
Taiwan. It could either go in the direction of a stronger and continually advancing liberalization that could include China. As China develops and deploys new weapons systems. This is a long-term historical task that must be accomplished before a new global architecture of cooperation could become even remotely conceivable.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement. There is no rigidly exclusive bipolar alliance structure in Asia. when the USS Impeccable was confronted by Chinese vessels in the South China Sea—to diminish the American Naval presence in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. the EU. Only the United States is capable of keeping the liberal option open to the peoples of the region. Without a strong countervailing liberal political presence. which should serve as a strong model for other regional agreements that would both comply with WTO principles and serve as a powerful alternative to the recent tendency in Beijing’s trade diplomacy toward managed rather than free trade arrangements. or it could go in the direction of political regression. But none of the major powers wants to see Beijing reshape the political. economic fragmentation. Momentum from the success of the agreement with South Korea should be applied to a reinvigoration of movement within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and the relatively new Trans-Pacific Partnership toward region-wide free trade and investment to include the entire Pacific Basin. China’s dependence on global commerce—the country’s GDP is now about 70 percent dependent on international trade and investment—brings with it openness to the leverage of the United States.S. and military instability. economic and military order of the region. and the World Trade Organization. Japan.S. [Dc] 42 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 43 . This in turn will require a healthy alliance system and the careful adjustment of the American military posture as the strength of other powers grows. The impulse on the part of Russia. Australia and the ASEAN countries to balance the disruptions to the status quo that a rising China will bring about will be quite strong. The Chinese economy is now more integrated into global capitalism than the Soviet Union ever was. influence that should be used to encourage greater integration into world free trade and finance. Washington must also respond to any attempts—such as in March 2009. And it is this international component that remains crucial to the continued development of the country and to the survival of the regime. All of the governments in the region maintain complex and overlapping relationships with each other. Politically this means that Washington must actively promote democratic politics and human rights. the United States must respond with enhancements of its own. India. The U. Japan. As both a Pacific and a Western power the United States is in a pivotal position to orchestrate a political and military balance that includes Beijing as an interested power but does not allow it to impose unilateral solutions on territorial issues such as the Senkaku Islands dispute. Such economic interpenetration makes it possible for the Western-aligned powers to exert great influence over the course of China’s economic reform and development. Asia will drift inexorably toward accommodation with Beijing’s authoritarian preferences. neither is it similar to the Cold War with the Soviet Union. or to set the political course of the region on a path toward authoritarianism. should start by ratifying and implementing the U.bRIC | ChInA not resemble the Concert of Europe. A successful foreign policy must deal with these realities in order to promote the first outcome while avoiding the second. Asia is changing very fast. South Korea. The practice of diplomatic and military balance of power must be combined with a policy of vigorous economic and business engagement that works to shape an economic environment to which China must be encouraged to adjust.
Why china is a Superpower—already | by RAjEEV shARMA | c hina’s declared ambition is to become the world’s superpower by 2025. the cost of living for southern and south western China is expected to be pushed lower by as much as 19 percent as these regions of China will have access to much cheaper vegetables. interwoven its economy with economies of as diverse regions as Africa (South Africa and Nigeria). it is already there. agriculture. fruits and other food articles through ASEAN imports. The moral of the story is simple. drones. environmental science. China is here to stay. This tactic has proven to be a major factor for China to successfully absorb the shocks of global recession that started in September 2008 and is still not over. China started replicating the U. Latin America (Brazil. biotechnology. Though it is not verified. Beijing has started catering to non-Han racial groups. Now as a matter of policy. Malaysia. Their local festivals. Secondly. and Ecuador). transportation. Space is another area of deep focus for China. and Central Asia is its oil and gas diplomacy. The Chinese involvement with Central Asia is best exemplified by its gas pipeline diplomacy. China’s infrastructural forays are well known. if not more. China has a ten-year supply of oil and gas energy booked at the lowest market point ($34 to $40 per bbl) of any nation. China is increasingly encouraging celebration of the multicultural diversity of all 56 ethnic groups.000 km of new high speed rail across the length and breadth of the country in the next three years. China possesses a stockpile of rare earth metals for military and domestic use that can easily last for the next two decades. China made friends and increased its influence by buying oil. The past few weeks have demonstrated how China has flexed its rare earths muscle with Japan. China is acutely aware of the racial challenges to the majority Han people and to the State itself. The Chinese juggernaut is moving at a breakneck speed as it milks its more than ten producing gold mines and sets its sights on five new and developing oil fields coming on stream by 2015-17. Oceana (Australia and New Zealand). and cutting edge space technologies. The 60th anniversary parade on October 1. China is paying close attention to the protection of heritage and natural sites of non-Han ethnic groups (China has 17 World Heritage Sites). China is not merely self sufficient in food production but a net exporter of products like edible oil. China is well poised to justify it. In terms of development. As of now. Here are some of the lesser known nuggets of information on China that demonstrate why China is already a formidable power. aggressively pursuing plans for its own space station. Argentina. and medicine. deep space programme. pegged at some 390 million under-35 people who can speak and understand basic English. Africa. China used to be an oil exporter. This rapid connectivity will not only facilitate its citizens and tourists to reach anywhere inside China within eight hours by rail. China maintains a reasonable balance between agriculture and industry. India is a good 50 to 60 years behind. The 21st century is projected to be the century of Asia. art. In many ways. to name a few. languages. which demonstrated supersonic aircraft. So is the case with its army that exceeds that of the United States by at least 5:1. The Chinese food security scenario is set to be all the more rosy with its recent free trade deal with ASEAN. but about a decade ago it turned into a net oil importer. and the Philippines). That is why since 2007-08. It is rapidly converting 10 percent of its energy sources to alternative forms much higher than the very small 1 to 2 percent achieved by most of Western Europe thus far. Beijing has claimed to have the world’s largest Englishspeaking population. this massive infrastructure is expected to create as many as 12 million jobs. a wide array of missiles. strategy of building its POL reserves–definitely a superpower-ish behavior. music and dance are being promoted in an effort to knit all these ethnic groups together. textiles. 2009 showcased the teeth and diversity of the Chinese military might. In China everything is big. ground mobility vehicle and high-technology equipment. The way China is proceeding it may well be China’s Century.S. Importantly. rice and meat. China’s biggest mantra of success with the Middle East. China has the largest car market in the world and at the same time its agricultural base is sound. Chile. Special Forces. Central Asia (virtually every country in the region) and ASEAN (Indonesia. This way. Middle East (Iran). China is going to add a huge network of 13. It is significant that while America’s NASA is gasping for funds. [Dc] 45 44 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER . The 242 exhibits at the recent Shanghai World Expo gave a sneak peak to the world where China is headed in the near future. Because of this free trade agreement. For one. China has loosened its purse strings. China sought to kill many birds with one stone. China has quickly and methodically. China is leaving no area of importance untouched and pouring in massive funds in diverse sectors like nanotechnology.
the CPC. Now expected to reach 1. under a more pragmatic leadership headed by Deng Xiaoping. already four times larger than that of the United States. infrastructure and industry. the solution is production”.5 billion. In recent years it has been less rigidly enforced in many rural areas. [Dc] 46 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 47 . as well as to the consequences of central planning. As more of those people born after 1949 and before 1979 enter into retirement. where couples are allowed to have a second child if the first is a girl. Mao retorted: “Even if China’s population multiplies many times. China’s solution to this impending demographic drag is to begin the process of trying to engineer a “second” demographic dividend.2 million more than the government estimated during its last five-year planning cycle (2006-2010). As China’s demographic window of opportunity closes—some claim it’s reached the Lewisian Turning Point—it seems the nation may lose an important competitive advantage to its main rival. China’s fertility decline traces back to the vagaries of history that intrigued Mao. China’s population. together with an anticipated rise in demand for workers in nonagricultural sectors. They are also moving more quickly to foster better macro-economic governance. The Great Leap Forward devastated China’s agriculture and led to widespread famine between 1959 and 1961. led to a reduction in the proportion of women in the population. it has more than doubled in size since 1953. But now. division of labour. After Mao’s death in 1976. doesn’t convey the extent to which this economic miracle would depend on the population’s age structure. Acheson’s folly was to base his argument on the theory of causation. A baby boom followed the Great Leap Forward from the mid-1960s into the 1970s. Mao’s rejoinder. The country’s aging process. and more favourable patterns of consumption. transforming itself into the world’s largest manufacturer next to the United States. China’s demographic dividend is beginning to fall. Central planners aim to bring about a general transition from an extensive to an intensive economic model. when the population is anticipated to peak at 1. Fearing that China’s population would outstrip its resources. Mao proved right in thinking that China’s population would become its greatest economic asset. The nation has reaped its “demographic dividend” from growth in the working-age segment of its population (those between 19 and 60 who produce more than they consume) and the accelerated accumulation of capital attendant on lower spending on dependent segments (those under 19 and over 60. though. While the policy’s success is an open and complex question. It’s one of several major demographic shifts causing considerable angst in Beijing. much heralded in recent years. for example. not merely its size or continued expansion. presumed to be too young or too old to support themselves through labour market activity). either through public pension plans or familial support systems. has quickened in tandem with its fertility decline and longer life expectancy. shortly before proclaiming the People’s Republic of China. may grow less slowly than before but it will continue to grow in absolute figures by tens of millions each year. what that “mass of inexplicable events” might hold and bring in the process. he claimed. has. and the total fertility rate (the average number of lifetime births per woman) has dropped by half. economically unproductive segment of the population is expected to swell out of proportion over the next five years. 1949. Anxious to catch up to America and Britain. is trending toward a labour imbalance. the population’s growth rate is set to enter into a lengthy period of decline after 2015. A traditional cultural preference for boys.china’s Falling Demographic Dividend | by PAUL nAsh | o n September 16. urban infrastructure. In consequence. These “Black Years” saw 25-35 million premature deaths. in part. it did slow growth to less than 40 percent between 1979 and 2008. Various other socio-economic factors have contributed also. In recent years India’s fertility rate has far surpassed the replacement level. China’s Communist Party (CPC) would attribute the famine to Mao’s extremist ideological policies and inability to “seek truth from fact”. a speedy transition is a tall order to fill. education and housing. even as the Western world frets over a rising dragon. Acheson had suggested that Mao’s revolution was. the dependency ratio (the quotient of dependent to working-aged people) increases. They seek to enable future economic growth by enhancing efficiency in all factors of production: from improving technology. and it exempts non-Han ethnic minorities who account for less than 10 percent of the population. compared to China’s expected 62. China’s population. Secretary of State. Life expectancy has doubled roughly since 1950. Moreover. diminishing net increases to the working-aged population. 3. adopted a family planning policy in 1979 that limited couples to one child. One wonders. China initiated the Great Leap Forward in 1958. According to Mao. Already. For this reason. placing ever greater strains on the country’s food supplies. would remain for the Communists as big a stumbling block to social and economic progress as it had been for previous regimes. though. natural resources. settling below the replacement level. while China’s has remained below it for nearly two decades. the one-child policy has remained in effect ever since. rising to 64. she is fully capable of finding a solution. a sound financial system.6 percent of its total population. the year in which China’s first modern census was taken. then U. a move away from quantity to quality.S. The size of India’s workforce is expected to overtake China’s by 2040. The nation has exploited this growth to industrialize with astounding rapidity. some Chinese policymakers endorse a continuation of the one-child policy at least until 2033. under the onechild policy. This represents an annual increase of 8 million people. ignoring what he termed the “mass of inexplicable events” that keeps history turning and never fully predictable. Today. Initially a temporary measure aimed at urban areas. India.39 billion by 2015. where growth was most rampant. this aging process is being felt in the provision obligations shouldered by younger generations. housing and social security systems. the by-product of over-population. the ageing. The calamity seemed only to bear out Acheson’s contention that China would be unable to feed its people. surpassing 200 million. The scheme was intended to hasten industrialization by reorganizing agricultural cooperatives into collectives and taking millions of farmers out of the fields to work in factories producing iron and steel. but one to which China’s system of central planning. savings and investment. largely amongst the younger and older generations. to accelerating the development of human capital through better education.4 percent. it has been largely the advantageous age distribution of Chi- na’s population that has provided an abundant supply of workers and a relatively high savings rate. For the past three decades. seems conducive. Undoubtedly. statistically no less than morally. however. contributing more than 30 percent to the country’s economic growth. Mao Zedong wrote an essay repudiating remarks made by Dean Acheson.
At one point. Moreover. Beside them are (from left to right): Mark Lyall Grant. Chinese 48 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 49 . Unlike Iran. and is frequently measured by whether a given policy is in conflict with Islamic religious teachings. his understanding of Chinese style capitalism—combined with Iran's natural resources and strategic geo-political location—might have already begun to make Iran a more formidable economic and strategic power. t he demonstrators in Iran opposed to Mahmud Ahmadinejad's electoral "victory" were supporters of the defeated candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi. In August 2009. or as a potential pariah state? Ironically. Li Baodong. and Iranian expatriates in Western Europe and the United States. Permanent Representative of France. prior to a Security Council meeting at which the Un Security Council adopted resolution 1929 (2010). China’s leadership views Iran as a country that may well wield significant economic and military power in Southwest Asia over the next few decades. Permanent Representative of Germany to the Un. Rice (front. Countries that adopt Judeo-Christian ideas. Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation. pro-democracy activists. That said. orderly society. After the recent bout of dissent and rioting in Tehran. At the same time. Mousavi. the Iranian Mullahs have been actively using Iran's oil revenues to fund terrorism. it was decided Ahmadinejad would reject the deal to ship uranium out of the country. by contrast. They believe it is an inalienable right of an Islamic state to pursue its own course of affairs without any interference from non-Islamic countries. Iran’s leadership does not believe that their country would be treated as an equal partner because the Western countries do not respect Iran’s political. In Iran.S. Ahmadinejad treated this proposal as a victory for Iran. Permanent Representative of the U. who remains opposed to Ahmadinejad’s approach. and has and has encouraged a modest form of liberalization that could bolster economic and political stability. among other things. it has damaged Iran’s opportunity to follow China’s successful experiment with capitalism. This should provide a clear warning to Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Mullahs. a key player in the energy and technology arenas. By allowing hard-line conservative theology to dominate the political process. however. Tehran and Beijing struck a deal for $3 billion to help pave the way for China to expand two or more oil refineries. Iran now successfully transports 700. Moreover. jR. Mousavi and Rafsanjani believe that China would provide a security buffer against Russia. Mousavi recognized this. the Iranian government could capitalize on the growing disillusionment among its citizens. Vitaly I. high speed rail lines. economic and security interests. in a phone conversation with Javier Solana—Secretary General of both the Council of the European Union (EU) and the Western European Union (WEU). Every new idea. it does not have a regressive religious element that influences all aspects of society. right). Consequently. In July 2009.” That said. intellectuals and its middle class. The Mullahs believe that the tenets of Islam dictate that Iran must neither compromise nor cooperate with the United States. Many Iranians assume or believe that former strongman Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was the first to recognize the efficacy of the Chinese economic model. This stands in marked contrast to the efforts of other socialist governments that have attempted to do business in and with Iran. While suspicious of the United States. concept and technology must be filtered through that religious prism. Churkin.the New chinese capitalist Economic Model Vis-a-Vis iran | by AMbAssADOR DOnALD k. However. This was evidenced by the construction of Tehran’s major subway. Iran’s leaders rejected holding a meeting in Vienna to restart those negotiations.8 billion project to build seven oil refineries and a 1019 mile trans-Iranian pipeline. Permanent Representative of the People’s Republic of China. How will Ahmadinejad and his government manage their relationships with Asia (notably China). that the Iranian government must address the social and economic concerns of its well-educated populace if it wants to stay in power. Tehran is actively resisting efforts by its middle class. Iran’s oil and natural resources would lead to tremendous wealth and prosperity for the Iranian people under a Chinese system of modified capitalism. the strong opposition to his program by Iranian Mullahs—based in theology and fear—has raised concerns that the tenets of Islamic law would be compromised. They appear to have now joined forces against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad in opposition to the belief that Islamic theocracy is the final arbiter of economic and global policies. which has in turn precipitated a cauldron of unrest among Iranian students. Europe and the United States? Will increased dissent. encourage and maintain more democratic practices? And how will the Chinese government and the western countries look upon Iran—as a growing partner. rallies in Iran sponsored by the growing pro-democracy movement. While not highly publicized. Moreover. Iran invited Chinese companies to participate in a $47. as soon as the proposal was reviewed by Iran’s Mullahs. Subsequently. He has tried to consolidate power and marginalize his rivals. bAnDLER AnD RALPh WInnIE. Europe or Israel—all of whom refuse to adopt Islam as the official religion and submit to Sharia law. | fEATURE | IRAn & ChInA religions such as Confucianism and Daoism encourage active planning. After CITIC won the bid and built the subway. this could help Iran to gain greater access to the markets that Western and Eastern technology affords. which was built by China International Trust and Investment Company (CITIC)—a major engineering and investment firm. theology is often the initial and predominant focus. to the Un. which is struggling towards a form of Western style capitalism and liberalization that incorporates elements of Iran's history and culture. Mousavi and other political leaders are aware that some elements of Western business offer opportunities for the Iranian people—in contrast with the Iranian Mullahs who fail to acknowledge anything of value from the West. freeways and secondary transportation grids. with the recent $5 billion deal brokered by Chinese National Petroleum to develop the South Pars natural gas field in Iran. religious battles as well as large purchases of military hardware and nuclear technologies. neither faction is willing to see him take credit for brokering a potential nuclear deal with the West. Mousavi could point to the People’s Republic of China's successful economic model and encourage the government and business sectors to embrace it as a vehicle to achieve economic prosperity and security within a controlled. Ahmadinejad seemed to be lending support to an IAEA proposal to ship 2560 pounds of uranium abroad to France and Russia by the end of the year to be refined for civilian purposes as part a medical reactor in Tehran. Rafsanjani’s initiation of trade agreements and technical exchanges had a positive economic impact. the Mullahs have retarded the development of Iran’s economy and self-sufficiency.000 passengers a day. if Mr. [Dc] Un Photo by Evan Schneider Susan E. and pressure from the western countries establish. Permanent Representative of the UK. which has always coveted Iran’s valuable natural resources. sees reconstruction of the Iranian economy as Tehran’s first priority. Over time. pragmatism and self-reliance. The Mullahs would have viewed any attempt by the West to stop Iran’s nuclear program as a violation of the basic tenets of Islamic law. China has become a major economic player in the world community because. By implementing a modified version of Chinese capitalism. He claimed that the West had changed its policy from “confrontation to cooperation as a result of Iran’s resistance to the United States and its allies. Unfortunately. Mousavi had been allowed to maintain his position and influence in Iran’s government. Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator. and Gérard Araud. values and beliefs are deemed to be hostile and subversive. chats with Peter Wittig. While the Chinese and Iranian governments have traditionally been suspicious of the West. This has resulted in a stagnating economy with high unemployment and underemployment. who maintain his authority. This was confirmed by Saeed Jalili. The PRC has enacted a stimulus package that allows money to be directly allocated to research and infrastructure projects—notably nuclear power plants. Beijing is estimated to have committed $120 billion for Iranian gas and oil projects to offset its own shortages in that arena. imposing new sanctions against Iran. Tehran saw that the Chinese economic system of modified capitalism could provide similar high tech and advanced infrastructure development projects. President Ahmadinejad has deeply alienated both reformist and conservative political leaders since his disputed re-election. the leadership recognized that their government could only maintain power and control with the active support of the middle class. Israel and Western democracies.
It ranks in or near the top 10 countries in the world for proven oil reserves. and home to De Beers. But horrific violence has prevented all but illicit exploitation of most of the country’s reserves. on the cusp of joining the BRICs. A concerted effort to improve security and infrastructure in the Delta will both reduce support for MEND and allow the oil industry to prosper. Yet it has failed to attain influence on the global stage in the same way as South Africa. leading some companies to pull out of Nigerian operations. oil exports. assuring that oil profits go to the country. South Africa has certainly suffered from its share of internal conflict. on the other hand. but it has become more of a terrorist organization. decades of strongmen and military elites led the country and used it to fill their personal coffers. South Africa emerged from colonial rule early in the 20th Century to an experienced government. Though Goodluck Jonathan’s government is slow to make real progress toward stable democracy. South Africa also has a much morediversified economy. but has been unable to establish control over the oil-rich Delta region. Foreign oil workers are taken hostage for ransom. the largest diamond supplier in the world. Nigeria was also chosen by Goldman Sachs as a member of the Next Eleven. Or perhaps it is Nigeria’s drive to achieve its full potential. Additionally. largely due to violence and vandalism. Corruption continues to plague Nigeria. Nigeria is not doomed to stay a footnote to rising economic power. As a result. which has prospered rather than fall victim to the resource curse. but its inhabitants are among the poorest in the country. Its military has intervened around the continent. Oil and petroleum products account for 95 percent of Nigeria’s exports. mines in South Africa are far more secure and stable than oil platforms in Nigeria. None of Nigeria’s four refineries have ever operated at full capacity.(And Why Nigeria Hasn’t—Yet) | by MATT hUghEs | South Africa rising ased solely on economic indicators. Profits from on-shore and off-shore oil sites never make their way back to developing infrastructure and economic opportunities for inhabitants of the Niger Delta. But much of that 50 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER B violence was criminal. South Africa. MEND’s political goals are redistribution of oil wealth for greater equality and development. the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) should be the richest country in Africa. and population. not to its leaders. and ethnic violence. most notably leading the ECOWAS mission in Sierra Leone in the late 1990s. The apartheid regime faced violent challenges from non-white South Africans. [Dc] 51 . security is gradually improving as the State Security Service (SSS) becomes more proactive against MEND and other threats. The same or similar rulers stayed in power. Nigeria should have one of the most robust economies in the world. but they served to hold the country together. not centers of commerce. Their methods may not have been ethical or just. Angola ranks near Nigeria in terms of proven oil reserves and oil production and is widely regarded as the most expensive country in Africa. Perhaps the reason Nigeria is mentioned in the same conversation as South Africa. Nigeria is one of the largest supporters of the African Union and the driving force behind the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The Delta region is the most oil-rich area in the country. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) is perhaps the greatest symbol of Nigeria’s struggles. rampant corruption. Nigeria’s struggles since attaining independence are well known. not militant in nature. Yet neither of these is seen as having Nigeria’s failed potential. South Africa has shown that the resource curse need not hold true. is the world’s largest producer of both platinum and gold. Nigeria’s problems are far from unique. Abuja must also continue to focus on reducing corruption in the government and the oil industry. costing as much as 40 perrcent of the oil wealth. perhaps owing to the once-thriving private military industry that arose with the end of colonialism white rule across southern Africa. military rule gave way to fragile democracy. The young democracy in Nigeria has won praise for its steps toward tackling corruption and human rights violations. and originated from the slums around urban centers. if not one of the richest in the world. and maintained control of the country and the economy. Based on resources alone. It is up to Nigeria to show that there is more than one exception to the rule. MEND is accused of bombing the independence celebrations last October and regularly attacks the oil infrastructure. Nigeria achieved independence without experienced leaders to take the helm. is its regional dominance. Nigeria’s two billion barrels a day in oil exports make it the largest African exporter of oil.
To date. The country’s 2009 crime stats show 68. but the culture extends to the highest levels. This is painfully clear when it comes to gender equality. D. abject poverty. Photography contributed by: Jay Farbman and Andrew Councill. Why buy another Ferrari when you can marry a young bride to parade around? The oppression and destruction of human dignity under apartheid achieved nothing positive.. how can the oppression and destruction of half of your population’s dignity be tolerated in a supposedly advanced society? And how can political attention that makes empty promises for the 16 Days of Activism change lives and restore hope for the other 349 days? [Dc] Andrew Seldon is the editor of South Africa’s premier security technology magazine HiTech Security Solutions (securitysa. As far as gender equality is concerned. women are still second-class citizens. The charges were dropped for “lack of evidence” and the victim then charged with statutory rape. While we celebrate 16 Days of Activism for No Violence Against Women and Children. political. 37 percent of men polled said they had raped a woman. Most people view South Africa as a beacon of hope in a continent plagued with violence. This truth is more apparent in the lower classes. South Africa is generally perceived as an advanced country. • June 4. Make One. Boldest community. a leader on the African continent. Such is the reverence for South Africa’s peaceful transition and its architect that Mandela. the change the country desperately needs will not come from the top. South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma has married five times. Best science. apart from being awarded numerous honors. Komen Global Race for the Cure® on June 4. Practicing polygamy is a public sign that you have more resources—economic. Not even government officers seem to consider rape with the seriousness it requires. the country has one of the most advanced constitutions in the world and has seen women represented in the highest levels of government since the end of Apartheid. which it seems is a lofty ideal that simply hasn’t moved from the hallowed halls of the intelligentsia down to grassroots level where women are still seen as property and sex as a the right of men—consent be damned. 52 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 53 . South Africa has one of the highest rape statistics globally. such as the horror in Burundi at the start of the century. “More than 51 percent of the 511 women interviewed said they'd experienced violence from men. Biggest impact. Start a team today! Let 2011 be the year you join this global movement and help end breast cancer forever. and personal—than the average man. Brinker. invites the diplomatic community to join her in the global fight against breast cancer at the Susan G. has been called in as a mediator in many conflicts. in a March 2010 article notes. TM ith icons like the Nobel Peace Prize winner Nelson Mandela and the African continent’s first peaceful transition to democracy.C. But there is still more to do. polygamy is about money and status. and Africa as a whole. Now. THIRD LADY. Founder and CEO of Susan G. Take the example of a four-year-old girl who was turned away from two hospitals after being raped. over $11 million have been granted for non-research community grants to 59 countries. SEConD LADY. again. the practice has traditionally been the privilege of those who could afford to marry and maintain many wives and children.From reconciliation to rape | by AnDREW sELDOn | mpact. A study in 2010 by the Medical Research Foundation says that in Gauteng. one divorced him and the other three currently share a polygamous relationship with him. Ambassador Nancy G. across all races. One wife died. The Running Ribbon is a registered trademark of Susan G. however.” He has also been charged with rape.. and acquitted. His most recent wife is almost 30 years his junior. The sad truth is that despite the great advances made in South Africa.org ©2011 Susan G. the economic hub of South and southern Africa. “More than being about companionship or sex. based in Johannesburg. corruption and any number of additional negative descriptors. shows these lofty accolades to be nothing but a facade. United against breast cancer. W Then take the recent case of a 15-yearold schoolgirl who was drugged and raped by two schoolboys while others filmed the assault on their mobile phones. and wives possessions more than partners. onE THIRD HAVE RAPED.Can this lack of empathy and understanding be changed? As with everything in South Africa. FIRST LADY. having broken free of racial tragedy. which is another horror story in itself.” He also said he was prepared to marry his rape accuser. famously explaining that he showered after having consensual sex as this “would minimize the risk of contracting the disease [HIV]. Across the world. KOMEN GLOBAL RACE FOR THE CURE ® Washington. And this in a country with the highest AIDS prevalence globally. Komen for the Cure ®.332 rapes reported during the year. 2011 Register today at GlobalRacefortheCure.com). with activists claiming that as little as 1 in 25 rapes are reported. The reality on the ground in South Africa. the culture of male entitlement and female insignificance is deeply embedded in South African culture. Komen for the Cure®. Foreign Policy.” While Apartheid and its legacy certainly played a large part in creating this scenario. 2011 SUSAN G. and 78 percent of men said they'd committed violence against women. In this respect the country is. Komen for the Cure®.
They are not unlike the other mainstay of international life: the forgery. The purveyors of WikiLeaks have stated theirs to be the cause of truth and transparency. Indeed.S. to embarrass the Soviets and to blur their focus at the height of the Cold War. which had important implications for diplomacy—and not in spite of them. Even anarchists have aspirations. wise diplomats wrap their thoughts in a cloak of bland and pious generalities. for example. It is certainly possible that the WikiLeaks incidents will compel many otherwise prolix diplomats to curb their reporting. as diplomats like to say. Particular and general aims may coincide. At the very least. especially if they adhere to the tradition of manipulating information for particular ends. as Pat Buchanan said. Forgeries. In communicating with the general public and. part ii artS Contemporary Crisis 55 . That is diplomatic. however. as the world’s foil of first. tend toward qualified pessimism. historians. The received opinion so far is that the leaks are an “unprecedented” act of vandalism against American power and institutions but whose detrimental effects will probably be less severe than expected. Speculation over them is rife. They often do. Diplomats who like to see their names in the newspaper are generally looked down upon. and last. Disorder on this scale has historically been the result of widespread political upheaval rather than simple sabotage. which bolster the literary reputations of a number of American Foreign Service officers. Making it so in the age of the internet is the next big frontier for American diplomacy. The full truth shall be known only when the identities of the leakers are uncovered for all to see. The very opposite is the case when writing for colleagues and superiors. Diplomatic history suggests that major transformations in the way nations do business usually happen with the encouragement of governments—the introduction of the telegraph.The Effect of WikiLeaks to Diplomatic Historians | by kEnnETh WEIsbRODE | leaks. This is small comfort to them and to others whose classified opinions have been broadcast for the world to see. at least for a little while longer. Historians may come out of this the biggest losers of all. It is too early to know. What is new about these leaks? Who is really behind their release? How will they affect the conduct of diplomacy? All are valid historical questions. to make use of opportunities after setbacks. meanwhile. Places. Audience is everything. To us it has been a mixed bag. especially diplomatic historians. of course. the second. a few commentators have accentuated the positive. the leaked cables demonstrate impressive skills of reportage. and Scandals he WikiLeaks affair has generated a great deal of commentary but very little of it has examined its effects upon one interested readership: historians. [Dc] Diplomatic Courier’s Lifestyle Department Life. may have to settle for a different result: a lingering role for the U. The vandals of WikiLeaks. or that fewer written records may be kept to begin with. at times. the loss of existential and real global power tends to accompany its most exhibitionistic moments. its diplomats will adapt. This was true even in cases where the leaks were unintentional. with foreign counterparts. of course. Recall the famous instances of the Zimmermann telegram and Nikita Khrushchev’s Secret Speech: publicizing the former helped to compel American entry into the First World War. That is why even the most talented diplomatic reporters have authored some of the most mediocre memoirs. as they always have done. What we do know is that political theft and leakage are not new. the “Pearl Harbor of American diplomacy” but it is a good deal worse than awkward for people whose professional (and often personal) lives revolve around the anonymity of public service. then we have a different problem. On the other hand. whereas being known for the quality of one’s cables matters a great deal. the release of so much. government to reassemble many bureaucratic 54 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER t stovepipes. and the U. In previous cases of mass leakage—such as the Bolsheviks’ exposure of the secret World War I treaties and the Pentagon Papers—the agenda of the leakers figured prominently in the foreground. If. Arts. The conflation of the two in this instance would amount to nothing less than a perversion of their individual and social value. The moment may not be. Do the motives of the leakers really matter? Probably yes. not to mention the obvious stains upon their reputations with foreign colleagues. to put it mildly. resort. unless the latter becomes serious enough to bring about the former. Diplomatic iNauguRal ediTioN | WiNTeR 2011 placeS around the World on train. First among them in this case may be the emasculation of America. ought to have given rise to euphoria among those who ordinarily must wait several decades for the release of just a fraction of what has already been promised on the Internet. the aim is to so disrupt the normal ways of doing business that the business itsel becomes permanently damaged whereupon international relations become nearly ungovernable.S. America is still powerful. so soon. It also will most likely mean that the declassification of official documents—the bread and butter of historians—will be even tougher and will take even longer. the shrinkage of its power. On the one hand. But as the record of the last Bush administration shows.
like this piece’s DIY manner of assemblage. Stéphane Couturier’s extreme minute focus on banal objects. The most cohesive work can be found in the myriad of museums that call Paris home. dominated. with their sinuous curves. At these crossroads. artificial flowers. & genevA’s prestigious internAtionAl CoMMunities proMote your Country’s nAtionAl DAy events. Among the other artists highlighted at the Musée Bourdelle. Art Contemporain et Le surrealism en heritage. at the Centre Culturel Suisse. limited social engagement means these works rest almost at a standstill. fais ce qu’il te plaît at the Musée Bourdelle featured the work of 11 European artists responding to the museum’s space and collections. The exhibition. art has become a party. we look towards art as a measure of the Old World’s cultural pulse. At the Cité internationale des Arts. or CulturAl events in the DiploMAtiC Courier AnD reACh one of the Most iMportAnt AnD exClusive AuDienCes in the worlD to request the production schedule and the media kit. Even at these mediocre shows a sense of the fantastic emerges. proposed a reexamination of Surrealism and its influence on contemporary art yet offered only methods and themes that were new and exciting in the 1930s but now come off as stale and rehashed.” a hodgepodge of multimedia that evoked ethereal and ephemeral spaces. please email us at: info@diplomaticourier. feature flights of fantasy. Unfortunately. both physically within the museum and chronologically in the timeline of art history. which resembles a dystopian aircraft. not all galleries host exhibitions as strong as those at the Galerie Ropac. I have been assiduously exploring the contemporary art scene in Paris for the past two months. at the Galerie Ropac. and sculpture tell us about the state of the continent’s psyche? To answer these questions. not specifically related to the particular circumstances of European life in 2011.” That invitation took the form of “machine-sculptures. There was work that was just outright bad. British artist Richard Deacon also stood out. antique and modern. During my wanderings. thoughtout compositions. which acted as a viewfinder. alternative art space where kitsch. In Paris. Is there any clearer symptom of that fact than the annual Nuit Blanche. As an added autumnal bonus. l’art contemporain russe—De l’icône à l’avant-garde en passant par le musée. providing a stirring contrast to Bourdelle’s rigidly noble Madonnas. at Paris/Moscou/Photographies. Last summer’s En mai. I encountered plenty of art that had few redeeming qualities. towered over the already monumental rotunda. The dialogue is about art and the space it occupies. threats of terrorism and continued economic austerity everywhere else. as the four-meter tall yet spindle-like wood sculpture Strut. renders even the most everyday architecture otherworldly. Deacon’s most recent work was on view last October at the Galerie Thaddaeus Ropac. whimsy has won the day. Equally flamboyant was this year’s FIAC (Foire Internationale d’Art Contemporain) installations in the Jardin des Tuileries. all of the work on display as part of Paris/Moscou/ Photographies was technically well-done: innovative camera angles. Similarly. In the remnants of the French medieval fortress. forced gallery-goers to traverse any expectations they might have and enter a redefined. confirmed the evaluation made at the Musée Bourdelle: Deacon challenges the artist’s tools. searching for the most recent art hailing from the European continent.DIPLOMATIC LIfE Contemporary Crisis? | By reBecca park | i t is not an easy time to be European. the continent continues to face the same stressors that have marked the past few years. L’abandon. as “an invitation to travel in the imaginary. Most impressive was French multimedia artist Orlan’s installation VERSIONS ÉLABORÉES SANS MOULE/HALL DES PLÂTRES MUSÉE BOURDELLE 2010. in the form of multicolor crystals. Twist and Shout. Bordering on the apolitical. which are dedicated to the turn-of-the-century French sculptor Antoine Bourdelle. [Dc] CeleBrAte your Country with wAshington. artists are instead offering an escape from the rigors of the quotidian. the Louvre. is currently hosting Contrepoint. and a trippy electronic soundtrack. new yorK. The grand dame of Paris museums. exemplified. Even in these tough times. rendering heavy. industrial materials light and transcendent with his line-driven approach. polished close-ups. Even dark works. Galleries have openly embraced this trend. with his steel sculpture Two By Two. which was more reminiscent of a discotheque than an art gallery. These museum exhibitions share an intellectual rigor that forces the viewer to reconsider the previously mundane museum space. Maybe contemporary audiences find daily life is providing plenty of intellectual challenges as is. What I have seen is not game-changing. But clichés dominated the subject matter. contemporary Russian art confronts the visitor. exhiBits. pieces that served only to confirm age-old stereotypes. Gerda Steiner and Jörg Lenzlinger’s installation L’Incubateur cosmique. like Jonathan Meese’s Die Humpty-dumpty-mashiner der totalen zukunft. How have these political and social tensions been translated in the creative realm? What do European photography. which ran through October 11 at Dorothy’s Gallery. The Maison Européene de la Photographie went so far as to describe Fabien Chalon’s recent installation.org 56 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 57 . often dictated by the clothes worn. Works like Ter-Oganyan Avdey’s Radical Abstractionism series demonstrate the tension between a historical avant-garde tradition and today’s sociopolitical issues that art can no longer serve. painting. From fatal flooding in Hungary to debates over retirement in France. an all-night cultural extravaganza in October? This edition included Maurizio Toffoletti’s marble sculpture—which the viewer is encouraged to touch—and a sound and light installation on the Pont St-Louis. The Baroque-inspired sculptures. reducing the photography to images of a very old and very grand and very beautiful Paris or of a sexy-scary Moscow. demanding a renegotiation of East and West. encouraging the museum visitor to look out the permanent collection through its fragmented shell. The figure-less dress-like structures evoked traditional depictions of sensual femininity.
The platinum service rivals that of the best trains in the world. is the premier form of travel to discover Australia. a The Ghan. Trains. The Ghan offers three service classes (red. loveable accent. 58 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 59 . gold. Passengers enter into the Northern Territory from the subtropical flora and the train passes through the Katherine Gorge just before hitting the tropical area of Darwin. The Ghan. They inspired thrilling films and were compared to fivestar hotels. In the beginning of the trip. In 2004. which leads up to the beautiful Flinders mountain range allowing all of the beauties of Southern Australia to be seen. known for its arid climate. Inspired by the pioneering Afghan cameleers that first went into the Red Centre of Australia in the 19th Century. The Ghan is one of the most diverse journeys in the world. and platinum) making it affordable for all budgets. Australia Australia. and the amazing array of creatures from the kangaroo to the koala bear. we will feature train lines that continue to capture globetrotters seeking adventure at a different pace. diplomats. the train passes by day through the Adelaide Plains.around the World on train | By jamie BoWeN | ir travel has connected people and businesses like no other transportation medium ever in history. But much of the world below is lost in the fast paced environment that characterizes global travel. at their high point were luxurious and romantic. making the 1. In this series.846 mile journey complete from the north to the south of the continent. The train also passes through the two gems of the area. In the central part of Australia the landscape changes from plains to red earth and blue skies. The service includes all the modern comforts in a classic style. the Ghan first started running in August 1929 and has made the journey between Adelaide and Alice Springs ever since. is an explorer’s paradise. and celebrities boarded them both for their allure and comfort. Royalty. the Red Centre and the Top End. formerly known as the Afghan Express. the route was extended into Darwin. with a distinct Australian character.
lies a train journey full of beauty. construction was not completed until 1961. The 408 mile journey takes passengers through the Barrancas del Cobre (Copper Canyon). El Chepe started in the early 1920s but due to financial difficulties. The train takes passengers from the coastal city of Los Mochis to the city of Chihuahua. Some 50. conducted a rehabilitation process of the express and economic class cars of the train. El Chepe. mexico D eep in the mountains of North Mexico. The journey travels over 37 bridges and through 86 tunnels. It is considered one of the most important routes in the world. The renovation to the cars has now made the amazing journey through the Sierra Madre a comfortable one for all passengers. Since. to the world. which lies at 8. 60 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 61 .” The train is also used as a transportation hub and draws thousands of tourists each year. the train has taken travelers into the landscape. In 1998. The journey has also been called “the most dramatic train ride in the Western hemisphere. which got its name from its reporting mark CHP or Ferrocarril Chihuahua Pacifico. Ferrocarril Mexicano. owner of El Chepe. and history.000 of Tarahumara Indians live in cave dwellings similar to their ancestors’ dwellings located all along the Copper Canyon. The railroad opens this area. culture.S. which has been inhabited by Tarahumara Indians for the past 400 years. which is four times larger than the Colorado Canyon in the U. has been connecting the city of Chihuahua with the Pacific Ocean since 1961.el chepe.000 feet. in the Sierra Tarahumara.
famous for its hot springs. The train cars are 1920’s style Pullman trains from England from the Hiram Bingham Orient Express train. passengers can experience the beauty of the journey alongside the Urubamba River and see breathtaking landscapes on all sides of it. The train descends from there into the heart of the Sacred Valley of the Inca. Backpacker class is an economic way of traveling to the ruins. The train service of Cusco to Machu Picchu run by Peru Rail is the easiest way to the ancient city taking passengers on a journey into the past running through the heart of the Inca Nation. These trains give riders the feel of the luxurious past and bring the great history of train engineering to the large mountains of Peru. The Vistadome trains have large panoramic windows that align the walls and ceiling of the cars. The cars are covered in indigenous fabrics giving the ride a local feel. Passengers in these trains enjoy comfortable seating along with complimentary snacks and drinks. The train to Machu Picchu is divided into two classes. For the next three hours. After the journey is finished. travelers can make the two kilometer journey to the base of Machu Picchu and enjoy one of the most beautiful and well preserved cities of the Ancient world. The journey begins in a small town just outside of Cusco called Poroy. Vistadome and Backpacker. passengers arrive at the small city of Aguas Calientes. This great wonder is the ancient Incan city of Machu Picchu. 62 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 63 .cusco to machu picchu o ne of the greatest treasures of the old world is centered in the mountains of Peru and can only be reached by foot or train. Here.
Other routes include the Rainforest to Gold Rush Route. The route takes passengers through some of the greatest treasures Canada has to offer. The other route is the Whistler Sea to Sky Climb which operates a three hour journey from Vancouver to Whistler. The First Passage to the West Route travels from Vancouver east to Calgary. The two-day train route also passes by beautiful lakes. and Mount Robson. the Rocky Mountaineer was awarded the “World’s Leading Travel Experience by Train” for the fourth time and is a journey for the ages. The routes offer many different experiences.” The Rocky Mountaineer goes on four different routes up and down British Colum- bia and Alberta on Canada’s west coast. Canada N estled deep into the backcountry of British Columbia in Western Canada lies some of the most spectacular scenery in the world and one of the best ways to enjoy it is by rail. 64 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 65 .972 feet.the rocky mountaineer British Columbia. It has been running for the past 20 years. Alberta. the Spiral Tunnels. crossing over spectacles such as Hell’s Gate. serving more than one million travelers since its opening. waterfalls and glaciers while passing through treacherous canyons and hot deserts. In 2009. The train travels through the vast areas of the Canadian Rockies. which is the highest mountain in the area reaching a towering 12. The Rocky Mountaineer offers a once in a lifetime experience into the Canadian Rockies and has been deemed one of the best train rides in the world. Alberta and the Journey Through the Clouds runs from Vancouver to Jasper. The Rocky Mountaineer covers 650 miles of vast landscape and there is no better way to explore British Columbia. which takes passengers through the Cariboo and Chilcotin regions of British Columbia. The Rocky Mountaineer takes passengers through an amazing journey voted by the Society of American Travel Writers as the “Best Train Experience in the World.
the train does not cross the river on a bridge. In 1944.000 travelers. the railway was opened temporarily for steam engines. They avoided these dangerous areas by crossing the local river three times. [Dc] 66 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER 67 . such as avalanches and rocks falls. 1940. passengers were allowed to use it. more than 500. the train has been replaced with a new fleet. the Sognefjord. a new record of 582. 120 (and later 220) workers would work on the tunnels. first opened in 1909 and called the Bergen Railway. In the first seven years of operation. The journey begins at the mountain station of Myrdal on the Bergen Railway and continues down to the Flåm station in the Aurlandfjord stretch of the Sogenfjord. Each year. In 1923. the railway attracted 22.000 people take the 20 kilometer journey on the Flåm Railway through the winding tunnels and beautiful mountain valleys at the base of Norway’s snow capped mountains.Flåm Railway. norway N estled in between the mountains of Norway and the world’s longest fjord. the workers created a series of tunnels where the river water is diverted through the mountains so the train can cross over dry land. A total of 20 tunnels were excavated with only two being excavated by machine. the Flåm Railway became the first electric train in Norway and the journey only took a little over an hour. making it one of the most popular attractions in Norway. Soon after. which gives tours in seven languages. rests one of the prettiest and most treacherous train journeys on the planet. Instead. On August 1. construction on the Flåm Railway had begun and would take 17 years to finish. Much of the time during construction was devoted to the time consuming work of building tunnels. However. workers faced other problems.826 people rode the train. During construction. The journey through the steep Norwegian mountains manifests some of the most skillful engineering in Norwegian history. In 2007. The train guides passengers through deep ravines surrounded with waterfalls and snowcapped mountains into mountain farms on the steep slopes. lacked a rail line to Scognefjord. The railway. Nowadays.
However. he/she should activate his/her out of the office auto-reply and state who is an alternate point of contact in his/her absence. sometimes to the point that several years later it is bought back by large international groups. casual) cannot be overcome overnight and companies reaching out to embassies need to also show some flexibility. with an automated signature. Sending a notification when diplomats are about to leave the country or are no longer stationed in Washington. Returning phone calls and emails in a timely manner (within 24 to 48 hours maximum) should be the standard. Here are some basic steps embassies can take to raise their country’s visibility.Good Commercial Diplomacy A Trade Expert’s Wish List | by PhILIP h. making sure voicemails are not full or email boxes undeliverable would be a nice change for some embassies. but they are definitely tools that will be used to gauge the potential of a market. •Having up-and-running systems: Getting a professional looking email. In a world of globalization and increased competition. organizing. Also. Commercial diplomacy is a critical embassy activity as trade interdependence brings people together and reduces conflict risks. a couNtrY caN Be marketeD like a PRoDUCT. Gmail or aol. Mailing lists are picking up. to clearly understand the request. notably if it needs to be relayed to higher authorities. If visa application procedures can be explained in great details. Simple steps can be taken at minimum human and financial costs such as: •Making information easily available: Embassy websites can be loaded with practical information and useful links. SMEs should not be dismissed. enabling companies to receive news reports as well as announcements on country-related events. Other indexes constitute valuable tools such as the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index and the Corruption Perceptions Index of Transparency International. The need for a formalized written request can come at a later stage. etc. and different business style (formal v. clearly formulated inquiries increase chances of being properly answered. If any staff is going to be out of the office. [Dc] 69 68 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER . Making sure that there is no breakdown in communications in the process is also critical. and to dismiss inquiries from people who are simply fishing around without a clear agenda in mind. even for one day. •Having an established A-to-Z mechanism in place to address inquiries: This should start with anyone answering an inquiry: that person should be trained to properly answer or route the inquiry. a global civil society organization that measures the perceived level of public-sector corruption in 180 countries and territories. Making a genuine effort to stir it in the right direction can create a predisposition in favor of the responsive embassy. A dose of modesty is still needed. The World Bank publishes the Ease of Doing Business Index that ranks 183 economies after assessing how conducive the regulatory environment is to business operations. once importers. conferences. Ultimately. Therefore. business development managers or investors are hooked. faxing or scanning it is a debilitating task for business executives who cover many countries at the same time and have to generate results under time constraints. China. The telecom sector is a good example of how small foreign companies enter challenging emerging markets like Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Some diplomats do try to make themselves available. DC spare no efforts to promote their country by opening their doors to special events by sponsoring. This is where a responsive and engaging embassy will make a difference: as the expression goes “you don’t get a second chance to make a first impression. In the early stages of information exchanges. etc. build a prosperous business. WoRKInG ToGETHER. •Avoiding cumbersome requests: Oftentimes. different reports come out giving an assessment on issues that affect trade. the lack of customer service culture. hosting or participating in conferences.” This is a legitimate request for screening purposes. and not one at Yahoo. Not underestimating small and medium-sized companies: big company names are not necessarily those that will come with creative ways to operate in more challenging business environments. even though they offer true business opportunities for those who are not deterred by the challenges of doing business in transitioning and emerging economies. Some even reply to emails on weekends. exporters. Many calls could be avoided and answered with online information. many use their personal email accounts to handle inquiries because having an official email account it not an option or too complicated to implement for technical or internal reasons. Each year. certain aspects on doing business in country X can also be posted online. having to prepare a letter and mailing. Cultural shock. com would look more professional. •Modesty: Quite understandably most embassy staff is very bullish and proud about its country. New Zealand and Hong Kong. embassies will say “please send a letter to the ambassador. Of course. the top three economies were Singapore. The lack of trade or tourism activities is indicative that this enthusiasm is not universally shared. by distributing glossy investment guides and brochures. For instance. the lack of formality is a plus. many embassies fail to capitalize on the interest they generated and to provide practical information.” STEPS EMBASSIES CAn TAKE To SHInE. DE LEOn | mbassies in Washington. e In the 2010 Index. They may not be the bible by which decision-makers will decide to explore a market. the embassies with a well-established system to address and answer inquiries will ultimately generate more traction for their country. This said. some countries may be at a disadvantage in light of their average or poor ranking. the ranking is not necessarily a deal breaker: for instance China only ranks #89. The frequent lack of use of out of the office auto-replies is confusing because companies are left assuming action is being taken when none is and they can become very frustrated as precious time is lost. In this context. DC and have been replaced by X is a must.
Important. it does not want Washington to gain too much influence in Afghanistan and Eastern Europe. ruSSia has its own reasons for wanting to ally with the West. narcotics. The recent formation of the NATO-Russia Council is based on diplomatic maneuvering to gain power on the international stage. Obama knows his European allies do not see nuclear weapons as threatening. With the international community’s involvement. Ingushetia. Print is person- able. Her relationship with Germany helps Moscow prevent further American encroachment in her sphere of influence. 70 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER www. and now more than ever.Germany. Ingushetia. and energy sustainability. Washington has stronger authority to exert its power and will. when the threat becomes an international one—such as the weapons falling into the hands of terrorists or unstable regimes—it becomes imperative for the international community to get involved and back Washington. allowing each member its rightful share of power. not war like the original Concert of Europe. An alliance with Germany helps Russia counter-balance the U.medauras. Washington would then have easy access to Russia’s Dagestan. and Chechnya from al-Qaeda. which led to World War I. President Obama’s speech in Prague on the new START Treaty with Russia conveyed Washington’s intention to enlist the international community’s help to secure American national security. Costly aggressive economic sanctions against Iran would cut Germany’s investments in Iran. An expert in customized content. employees and communities. Russia agreed to fight terrorism. This delicate situation puts Russia in a predicament in drawing a fine line between keeping Iran in check while still keeping a friendship line open. At the last NATORussia Council. however. and. and piracy. resulted in Russia attending the November 20th NATO Summit. Washington will not stop in Afghanistan. and. MEDAURAS GLOBAL works with leading companies to develop highly successful publications and Web sites for American and international audiences. responsible. Russia thinks economic sanctions would give Washington an open door to Iran by creating a puppet state. GERMAnY wants the world to shift from aggressive policy to a new world order of economics. Timeless. This loss of investments motivates Germany to provide minimal “token” assistance against sanctions. This created a new Concert of Europe—the NATO-Russia Council consisting of all NATO members and Russia—conjuring hopes of peace. welfare. portal. The main players of this new alliance are Germany representing the EU. In Afghanistan. On one hand. it wants to protect its sphere of influence. Germany provides Russia with security against American encroachment because Germany needs Russian energy and economic resources. This meeting however. Washington’s deal with the Taliban to cut ties with al-Qaeda in exchange for legitimate power in Afghanistan only proves Washington’s most important goal is national security. Because this new NATO-Russia Council only uses diplomatic relations to gain power. these regions have cultural ties to Iran.S. Russia worries so much about its sphere of in- fluence it believes Washington is gaining influence in Iran through economic sanctions. While Russia supports Iranian civilian nuclear power it also voted to impose heavier sanctions on the country. the world can expect peace.S. [Dc] Customized books and magazines are highly effective marketing tools for developing profitable and long-term relationships with customers. and Chechnya. Germany would rather use its resources on social welfare programs than engage in disputes with Iran and Afghanistan. these new partnerships signify a growing cooperation that can finally tango itself into a love affair of mutual respect. Russia needs Washington to continue protecting Dagestan. Russia and Washington worked with each other. However. Russia. most obviously. and the United States Tango at a New “Concert of Europe” | by jACInDA ChAn | Diplomatic Dance There is something undeniably unique about a printed piece. Germany successfully prevented the Bush administration from building a nuclear defense shield in Poland. and the U. France hosted a meeting with Germany and Russia—invoking old memories of a Concert of Europe. Engaging. Russia plays a delicate game of diplomacy. Russia. Considering NATO and Russia were historic arch enemies. this new alliance is based on diplomatic interdependence. NATO agreed to include Russia in the European missile defense network—pacifying Russia’s fear of a NATO defense shield. america’S ultimate goal is to eliminate all military threats as seen in the Afghanistan war. l ast October.com 71 10 . Al-Qaeda’s non-threatening nature towards Germany enables Berlin to rationalize minimal involvement in the war. Unlike the first Concert of Europe that led to World War I because of ideological differences.
72 | WiNTeR 2011 | DIPLOMATIC COURIER .
This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
We've moved you to where you read on your other device.
Get the full title to continue reading from where you left off, or restart the preview.