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“Turning Questions Into Answers”

MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: INTERESTED PARTIES STEPHEN M. KINNEY & MATTHEW JASON PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES OCTOBER 8, 2012 CALIFORNIA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 24 ELECTION TRACKING SURVEY

DATE: RE:

The following memorandum is based on a survey of 400 likely voters in California’s 24th Congressional District completed by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of the Abel Maldonado for Congress Campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee. The survey was fielded October 1-3, 2012 and included interviews conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of error on the survey is plus or minus 4.9% percent. Key Points: • Abel Maldonado and Lois Capps are equally well known in the 24 th Congressional district. Ninety-two percent (92%) of likely November voters have heard of Maldonado (with 40% positive and 37% negative image), and 92% have also heard of Capps (with 44% positive and 40% negative image). Maldonado trailed in August by five percent (49% to 44%), but now the race is virtually tied at 45% Maldonado and 44% Capps among the likely voting electorate in California’s 24th Congressional District. Indicative of the tight nature of this district, a ballot question asking only whether you would vote for a Republican or Democratic Candidate for Congress was also extremely close at fortytwo percent (42% ) for the Republican and forty-four percent (44%) for the Democratic candidate. Another indicator of the closeness of this race is that Santa Barbara County has the race dead even at forty-four percent (44%), and San Luis Obispo County gives Maldonado only a slight edge over Capps of forty-six percent (46%) to forty-three percent (43% ). Personal Taxes have been an issue in the California CD 24 campaign. Despite the Democrat attacks, Abel Maldonado’s versus Lois Capps ballot test has improved for Abel ( August: 44% Abel 49% Lois to October: 45% Abel to 44% Lois). The fact the Capps has her own tax problems have caused most voters to become tired of the subject. Indicative of this is the following results (The debate on candidate taxes is important 27%, a distraction 68%)

Public Opinion Strategies, LLC. P.O. Box 4250, Redondo Beach, California 90277 Telephone: (310) 798-3030; Facsimile: (310) 798-3033