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IL-08 DCCC IVR (Oct. 2012)

IL-08 DCCC IVR (Oct. 2012)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Oct 08, 2012
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10/08/2012

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TO: Interested Parties FROM: Aaron Strauss, DCCC Director of Targeting and Data RE: IL-08 DCCC IVR Results DATE: October

7, 2012
Tammy Duckworth holds a double-digit lead in her bid to unseat Representative Joe Walsh in Illinois’ 8th district. Both the fundamentals of the race and of the district give Duckworth the edge in this race. In the trial heat, Duckworth outpaces Walsh by ten points (52%-42%). With a month until the election, Duckworth has already surpassed the crucial 50% threshold. Moreover, Walsh is in very dangerous territory for an incumbent—the low 40s. Among strong supporters, Duckworth’s lead is a Duckworth Leads Walsh by 10 bit wider at 12 points (47% - 35%). DCCC Poll October 4 Walsh’s problems are multi-faceted: he is less well known than Duckworth, less well liked than her, and is running in a Democratic district. The freshman congressman is only known by 86% of the district, whereas 91% have an opinion of his challenger. Further, Walsh’s image is underwater. Only 39% of voters have a favorable view of Walsh, while nearly half (46%) have an unfavorable view.
60%

52%
50%

+10
42%

40%
47% Strong Support 35% Strong Support

30%

20%

10%

6%

0% Duckworth Walsh Undecided

Tammy Duckworth, for her part, is both well known and well liked. Over half of all voters (55%) hold a favorable view of her, while only 36% hold an unfavorable view. The district is friendly territory for Democrats. Under the new lines for Illinois’ 8th, President Obama received over 62% of the two-party vote in 2008. In sum, Joe Walsh is exceptionally vulnerable and Tammy Duckworth is in a great position to unseat him.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 315 likely 2012 voters conducted October 4, 2012, in Illinois’ 8 Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 5.5%.
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