MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: RE: DATE: Interested Parties Jefrey Pollock & Joe Hickerson NY 18 Survey Results October 8, 2012

The results of our survey of likely voters in New Yorks 18th Congressional District show a tight race between Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney and Republican Congresswoman Nan Hayworth, and Hayworth is well below the 50% threshold that signals trouble for an incumbent.

P O LL RE S ULTS
If the election for Congress was today, 42% of likely voters say they would vote for Sean Patrick Maloney, while 44% would vote for Nan Hayworth. Just 35% of voters rate Hayworths job performance positively (11% excellent/25% good), while 51% rate her performance negatively (28% just fair/24% poor). The district is primed to vote for a Democrat in the race for Congress, with a generic Democratic candidate leading a generic Republican candidate by two points, 43% to 41%. The Presidential race is also tight in the district, with Barack Obama at 46% and Mitt Romney at 48%.

ME THO DO LO G Y
This memorandum summarizes results from a live telephone poll of 403 randomly selected likely voters in New Yorks 18th Congressional District conducted October 4-7, 2012. The estimation error associated with a sample of 403 is 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within plus or minus 4.9 points of the results that would have been obtained if all likely voters had been interviewed. Note that special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented.

NEW YORK WASHINGTON, D.C. HARTFORD LOS ANGELES

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