Interested Parties Lisa Grove, Ben Patinkin and Jessica Paulson Grove Insight, Ltd. Recent polling in NY-19 shows Chris Gibson is vulnerable October 8, 2012


This analysis is based on 400 interviews among likely 2012 general election voters in New York’s 19th Congressional District. The survey was conducted October 5-7, 2012. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.
Republican incumbent Chris Gibson is held well below 50%. The contest in New York’s 19th Congressional District is close with Democrat Julian Schreibman garnering 41% of the vote, to Chris Gibson’s 43%. Roughly one in five (16%) are up-for-grabs in this race. Gibson gets negative performance in office. reviews from his
“If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today for whom would you vote?”
Schreibman Gibson Undecided 41% 43% 16%

Voters are not pleased with Gibson’s performance in office. By a margin of eight points, voters are more likely to give the Congressman negative reviews (44%) than offer a positive evaluation (36%) of his work in Congress. Schreibman benefits from a District that favors Democrats. Voters in the 19th Congressional District lean towards Democrats. A majority (51%) have favorable opinions of Barack Obama, the President is ahead by seven points over Romney and Kirsten Gillibrand leads her Republican challenger for US Senate by 15 points (55% Gillibrand; 30% Long). Given these findings, New York’s 19th Congressional District represents another potential pick-up opportunity for Congressional Democrats.