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2012 Reuters Ipsos Daily Election Tracking 10.15.12

2012 Reuters Ipsos Daily Election Tracking 10.15.12

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10/15/2012

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Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Daily Election Tracking: 10.15.12
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 11-15, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 2,106 American registered voters and 1,864 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. Likely voter model adjusted to include all respondents who have voted, as of 10/15/12. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points for Registered Voters and 2.6 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix. The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

VOTING INTENTION
Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldn’t vote None / Other Don’t know / Refused 47% 45% 1% 3% 6% All Registered Voters (RV)
46% 42% 3% 4% 7%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)
85% 8% 1% 2% 5% 8% 85% 1% 3% 3% 33% 32% 8% 8% 19%

Obama & Romney Vote Share Daily Data: 2012 Conventions to present (Likely Voters only) Obama
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
10/10/12 10/12/12 10/14/12 8/27/12 8/29/12 8/31/12 9/10/12 9/12/12 9/14/12 9/16/12 9/18/12 9/20/12 9/22/12 9/24/12 9/26/12 9/28/12 9/30/12 10/2/12 10/4/12 10/6/12 10/8/12 9/2/12 9/4/12 9/6/12 9/8/12

Romney

Wouldn't vote/None/Other/DK/Ref

1

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Daily Election Tracking
OTHER VOTING QUESTIONS
[ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1] Q2. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might change your mind before you vote?
(n=1,841) Definitely will vote for candidate Could change my mind All Registered Voters (RV)
85% 15%

Democrats (RV)
85% 15%

Republicans (RV)
88% 12%

Independents (RV)
72% 28%

Q3. Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot, or not?
All Registered Voters (RV) Yes No
10% 90%

Democrats (RV)
9% 91%

Republicans (RV)
11% 89%

Independents (RV)
10% 90%

[IF “Yes” at Q3, ASK Q4] Q4. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=163) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, Other All Registered Voters (RV)
55% 43% 2% Base size too small to report data

Democrats (RV)

Republicans (RV)

Independents (RV)

[IF “No” at Q3, ASK Q5] Q5. And do you plan to vote at an early voting location or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot?
(n=1,943) Yes – I plan to vote at an early voting location Yes – I plan to mail in an early voting ballot Yes – I plan to mail in an absentee ballot No – I do not plan to vote early All Registered Voters (RV)
13% 8% 7% 71%

Democrats (RV)
16% 8% 8% 68%

Republicans (RV)
13% 11% 7% 69%

Independents (RV)
7% 5% 5% 83%

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Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Daily Election Tracking
CANDIDATE PREFERENCES ON POLICIES
Q6. In your opinion, which candidate for President has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following?
All Registered Voters (RV) Healthcare Barack Obama, Democrat Mitt Romney, Republican Neither Don’t know Barack Obama, Democrat Mitt Romney, Republican Neither Don’t know Barack Obama, Democrat Mitt Romney, Republican Neither Don’t know Barack Obama, Democrat Mitt Romney, Republican Neither Don’t know Barack Obama, Democrat Mitt Romney, Republican Neither Don’t know Barack Obama, Democrat Mitt Romney, Republican Neither Don’t know Barack Obama, Democrat Mitt Romney, Republican Neither Don’t know Barack Obama, Democrat Mitt Romney, Republican Neither Don’t know Barack Obama, Democrat Mitt Romney, Republican Neither Don’t know Barack Obama, Democrat Mitt Romney, Republican Neither Don’t know
42% 35% 11% 12% 37% 32% 12% 18% 37% 38% 12% 13% 32% 31% 15% 22% 40% 32% 13% 15% 41% 33% 12% 14% 41% 35% 12% 12% 43% 25% 15% 17% 39% 38% 10% 13% 29% 38% 16% 16%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)
76% 6% 8% 10% 68% 6% 10% 16% 70% 7% 9% 13% 60% 6% 12% 21% 72% 6% 10% 11% 75% 6% 8% 12% 74% 6% 9% 11% 72% 6% 10% 13% 72% 9% 8% 11% 56% 9% 17% 17% 9% 71% 9% 10% 9% 67% 10% 14% 7% 77% 8% 8% 8% 63% 12% 17% 10% 67% 11% 12% 10% 68% 10% 12% 9% 73% 9% 9% 17% 51% 15% 17% 8% 75% 8% 9% 4% 75% 11% 10% 33% 25% 21% 21% 25% 22% 23% 29% 22% 29% 26% 23% 21% 21% 25% 33% 26% 23% 23% 27% 29% 25% 26% 21% 32% 27% 21% 20% 31% 16% 25% 28% 23% 30% 20% 27% 21% 33% 25% 21%

The war on terror

The US Economy

Immigration

Social Security

Medicare

Taxes

Gay marriage

Jobs and employment

The federal government deficit

3

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Daily Election Tracking
MIDDLE EAST
Q7. How much, if anything, have you heard about the violence in several Middle Eastern countries including Egypt, Libya and Yemen that included attacks on U.S. embassies or consulates?
All Registered Voters (RV) Heard a great deal Heard a fair amount Heard a little bit Not heard anything at all Heard at least a little
36% 35% 23% 6% 94%

Democrats (RV)
32% 34% 28% 7% 93%

Republicans (RV)
46% 36% 15% 3% 97%

Independents (RV)
25% 35% 35% 5% 95%

Q8. Do you approve or disapprove about the way each leader is handling the current situation in the Egypt and Libya?
All Registered Voters (RV) Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean towards approve Lean towards disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know Total approve Total disapprove President Barack Obama Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean towards approve Lean towards disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know Total approve Total disapprove Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean towards approve Lean towards disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know Total approve Total disapprove
20% 15% 16% 9% 8% 16% 17% 51% 33% 19% 14% 12% 8% 7% 25% 15% 45% 40% 12% 13% 13% 12% 7% 17% 26% 38% 36%

Democrats (RV)
38% 23% 16% 5% 2% 2% 15% 77% 9% 36% 24% 17% 4% 2% 3% 13% 77% 9% 3% 5% 8% 18% 10% 31% 25% 15% 60%

Republicans (RV)
5% 7% 15% 14% 14% 31% 14% 27% 59% 5% 4% 6% 11% 12% 52% 10% 15% 75% 25% 25% 20% 4% 3% 2% 22% 69% 9%

Independents (RV)
11% 12% 14% 9% 9% 18% 26% 38% 36% 12% 13% 13% 12% 5% 22% 23% 38% 39% 8% 6% 16% 14% 7% 14% 35% 30% 36%

4

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Daily Election Tracking

PARTY ID Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK

All Registered Voters (RV)
19% 18% 7% 8% 19% 13% 13% 2% 2%

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