Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System

HARNESSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC’S WIND AND SOLAR RESOURCES

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Authors: Alexander Ochs, Xing Fu-Bertaux, Mark Konold, Shakuntala Makhijani, Sam Shrank, Cristina Adkins Editor: Lisa Mastny Project financed by Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, the Austrian Development Cooperation and European Union, and the Energy and Environment Partnership with Central America The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Worldwatch Institute; of its directors, officers, or staff; or of its funding organizations. Suggested Citation: A. Ochs, X. Fu-Bertaux, M. Konold, S. Makhijani, S. Shrank, and C. Adkins, Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System: Harnessing the Dominican Republic’s Wind and Solar Resources (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 2011). On the cover: Countrywide map of wind potential in the Dominican Republic. Photograph by 3TIER. Copyright © 2011 Worldwatch Institute Washington, D.C.

Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System
Harnessing the Dominican Republic’s Wind and Solar Resources

(Evaluación de los Recursos Renovables para Tomadores de Decisiones en República Dominicana)

RE 8.37

WASHINGTON, DC 2011

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This roadmap is the result of a real team effort and would not have been possible without the support of numerous individuals both within and outside the partnering organizations. We would first like to thank the Energy and Environment Partnership with Central America/Alianza en Energía y Ambiente con Centroamérica (EEP/AEA), for its financial support. Salvador Rivas, María Eugenia Salaverría, Yesenia Murcia, Lilian Suarez Donoso, and Julio Alberto Lazo Villatoro at EEP/AEA were excellent partners in implementing this project. The Dominican Republic’s National Energy Commission (Comisión Nacional de Energía, CNE) was more than an accompanying partner and first recipient of our work. In particular, CNE’s Management of Alternative Sources and Rational Use of Energy team provided continued advice and feedback on this project. Enrique Ramirez, Manuel Peña, Francisco Gomez, and numerous colleagues gave us access to data and intellectual insights that well exceeded the ordinary scope of such governmental-NGO partnerships. In particular, we heartily thank Yeulis Rivas whose technical expertise, insights and good humor were invaluable to us as we moved the project forward. And, we are especially grateful to Julian Despradel who, during the one-year research process, has become a dear friend. It is no exaggeration that without Julian’s steady and tireless support, this work could have not been completed. Allison Archambault of Fresh Generation was an outstanding partner in the project. From the initial drafting of the proposal to the final writing phase, she assisted Worldwatch in designing and executing this work, particularly through her fabulous networks in the Dominican Republic as well as her outstanding knowledge of the electricity system and “power” politics in that country and elsewhere. 3TIER was another instrumental partner in this work. Throughout the project, the 3TIER team provided unparalleled solar and wind resource information that would become a foundational piece of this initiative. They also went the extra mile to ensure that we understood how to best incorporate the data they supplied. We owe a huge debt of thanks to Pascal Storck, Ken Westrick, Cameron Potter, and Charlie Wise for their professionalism, support, and assistance, and we look forward to future collaboration with them. Special thanks also go out to participants of our Stakeholder Workshop held in Santo Domingo in June 2011. Our team received immeasurable feedback that strongly shaped the final version of this report. Members from the private sector, academia, and government gave us insight and direction that truly helped us ensure that this project incorporates issues that are specific to the Dominican Republic. At Worldwatch, we would like to first thank Alice Jaspersen who, before transitioning to a new life phase outside the Institute and the United States, contributed immensely to drafting the project proposal. We are indebted to President Emeritus Christopher Flavin and to researchers Saya Kitasei, Matt Lucky, and Michael Renner, who all provided important input on early drafts of this report as well as ongoing support throughout the project. We are also grateful to Mary C. Redfern, Worldwatch’s Director of Institutional Relations, and Patricia Shyne, Director of Publications and Marketing, for their support on logistics. The Worldwatch Institute seeks to help countries around the world design strategies for development that are economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable. Our aim is to provide solid research and analysis that decision makers in the Dominican Republic can use in their efforts to meet their timely commitments to renewable energy development and climate change mitigation. It is our firm belief that our planet can only be spared from further ecological disaster if we work closely with the people in a given locality and succeed in jointly identifying solutions that can improve human wellbeing and quality of life while also preserving Earth’s resources.

Alexander Ochs, Project Director Washington, D.C. October 26, 2011

Mark Konold, Project Manager

Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System: Harnessing the Dominican Republic’s Wind and Solar Resources

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PREFACE
Countries around the world are seeking to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, building energy systems that can support economic and social development goals while lowering emissions of local pollutants and climate-altering greenhouse gases. Small-island states, despite contributing minimally to global emissions, are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Because of their typically high dependence on fossil fuel imports, these countries can benefit greatly from the early adoption of lowand zero-emission energy technologies.
The government of the Dominican Republic has become aware of the enormous economic price that the country is paying for its dependence on fossil fuel imports. Policymakers there hope to make the Dominican Republic a leader and example for others in demonstrating how “green” and “growth” can go together. The country has joined with 11 other small-island states in an alliance, known as SIDS DOCK, to increase energy efficiency and renewable energy generation. This report offers an important contribution to the design of a sustainable development strategy in the climate-vulnerable and energy import-dependent small-island country of the Dominican Republic. The report assesses the Dominican Republic’s domestic wind and solar energy resources and provides a policy roadmap for how the country can cost-effectively harness this potential.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
"#$%&'()*+,)%-. ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////0! 12)3"#) ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////4! (5.-!&3!"662)75"-5&%. ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////8! )9)#:-57)!.:,,"2; ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////<! 5/! *)7)(&15%+!"!.:.-"5%"6()!)()#-25#5-;!.;.-),!3&2!-=)!*&,5%5#"%!2)1:6(5# ///////////////>! 1.! Small Island States: Low-Emissions Development Strategies and Global Climate Change... 8! 2.! The Current Electricity System in the Dominican Republic ....................................................... 9! 3.! Methodology and Complementarity of This Study .................................................................... 12! 55/!!!!"..)..5%+!-=)!*&,5%5#"%!2)1:6(5#?.!'5%*!"%*!.&("2!)%)2+;!1&-)%-5"( //////////////////0@! 1.! The Scope of Our Wind and Solar Resource Assessments ..................................................... 14! 1.1! Background ............................................................................................................................... 14! 1.2! Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 14! 1.3! Limitations ................................................................................................................................. 15! 2.! Solar Assessments....................................................................................................................... 15! 2.1! Overall Countrywide Assessment ............................................................................................. 15! 2.2! Santo Domingo ......................................................................................................................... 16! 2.3! Santiago .................................................................................................................................... 18! 2.4! Summary of Solar Potential ...................................................................................................... 20! 3.! Wind Assessments....................................................................................................................... 20! 3.1! Overview of Countrywide Data ................................................................................................. 20! 3.2! Wind Resource by Zone ........................................................................................................... 21! 3.3! Variability .................................................................................................................................. 22! 3.4! Ramp Events ............................................................................................................................ 22! 3.5! Complementarity ....................................................................................................................... 23! 3.6! Summary of Wind Potential ...................................................................................................... 23! 555/!!!)#&%&,5#!"%*!-)#=%&(&+;!"..)..,)%- ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////4@! 1.! Status of Renewable Energy Technologies ............................................................................... 24! 1.1! Solar Electricity ......................................................................................................................... 24! 1.2! Solar Water Heating.................................................................................................................. 24! 1.3! Wind .......................................................................................................................................... 25! 1.4! Small Hydropower..................................................................................................................... 25! 1.5! Biomass .................................................................................................................................... 26! 1.6! Wave and Tidal ......................................................................................................................... 26! 2.! Technical Considerations for Wind and Solar Generation ....................................................... 27! 2.1! Distributed Generation .............................................................................................................. 27! 2.2! Centralized Generation ............................................................................................................. 29! 3.! Job Creation Potential.................................................................................................................. 34! 3.1! Direct Jobs ................................................................................................................................ 34! 3.2! Indirect and Induced Jobs......................................................................................................... 35! 3.3! Capacity Building and Employment .......................................................................................... 35! 4.! Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 35! 57/!!!="2%)..5%+!2)%)'"6()!2).&:2#).!5%!-=)!*&,5%5#"%!2)1:6(5# //////////////////////////////////A<! 1.! A Long-term Vision for the Promotion of Renewables ............................................................. 36! 1.1! “Loud and Long” Climate and Energy Targets.......................................................................... 36! 1.2! The Energy Regulatory Framework and Governance of the Sector ......................................... 37! 2.! Effective Political and Financial Support Mechanisms............................................................. 39!
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Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System: Harnessing the Dominican Republic’s Wind and Solar Resources

2.1! Investment-based Incentives: Tax Exemptions ........................................................................ 39! 2.2! Generation-based Incentives: The Feed-in Tariff ..................................................................... 40! 2.3! Net Metering ............................................................................................................................. 41! 2.4! Domestic Public Support........................................................................................................... 41! 2.5! International Funding ................................................................................................................ 43! 2.6! Building Capacity in the Banking Sector ................................................................................... 44! 3.! Administrative and Organizational Effectiveness ..................................................................... 45! 3.1! Integrated Policy Goals and Mainstreamed Policies................................................................. 45! 3.2! Stakeholder Participation .......................................................................................................... 47! 3.3! Monitoring, Reporting, and Evaluation of Policy Implementation.............................................. 47! 3.4! A “One-Stop” Shop for Renewables Investors .......................................................................... 47!

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APPENDICES…………………..………………………………………………..…………...…begin on page 54 1. 3TIER Solar Assessment of Santo Domingo…………..………………………………………………... 2. 3TIER Solar Assessment of Santiago……………..………………………………..……………………. 3. 3TIER Wind Power Modeling and Simulated Generation……………………………………………...

FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 1. National Integrated Electrical Grid ...................................................................................................... 10! Figure 2. Annual Electricity Generation by Fuel Type, 2010.............................................................................. 11! Figure 3. Worldwatch's Methodology for Low-Carbon Roadmap Development .............................................. 13! Figure 4. Dominican Republic Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) .......................................................................... 16! Figure 5. Santo Domingo Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI)............................................................................ 16! Figure 6. Santo Domingo Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) ................................................................................. 16! Figure 7. Monthly Variation in Santo Domingo .................................................................................................. 17! Figure 8. Daily Variation in Santo Domingo ....................................................................................................... 17! Figure 9. Santiago Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) ...................................................................................... 18! Figure 10. Santiago Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) .......................................................................................... 18! Figure 11. Monthly Variation in Santiago ........................................................................................................... 19! Figure 12. Daily Variation in Santiago................................................................................................................ 19! Figure 13. Dominican Republic Wind Resource at 80 Meters ........................................................................... 20! Figure 14. Grid Points Examined in the Six Provinces ...................................................................................... 21! Figure 15. Wind Capacity Factor for Each Grid Point ........................................................................................ 21! Figure 16. Monthly Variation in Wind Generation by Province .......................................................................... 22! Figure 17. Hourly Variation in Wind Generation by Province............................................................................. 22! Figure 18. Histogram of 10-minute Ramp Events for Representative Sites in Each Province .......................... 23! Figure 19. Histogram of 60-minute Ramp Events for Representative Sites in Each Province .......................... 23! Figure 20. Overview of Electricity Sector Laws and Institutions ........................................................................ 38! Figure 21. Process for Applying for the Net Metering Program ......................................................................... 42! Figure 22. Organizational Structure of Nat. Council for Climate Change & Clean Development Mechanism ... 46! Figure 23. Administrative Procedure to Obtain a Renewable Energy Concession ........................................... 48! Table 1. Electricity Production Costs per Kilowatt-hour, by Fuel Source, 2011................................................. 11! Table 2. Total Grid Points and Wind Capacity Factor by Region....................................................................... 21! Table 3. Job Creation Estimates for Planned Solar PV and Wind Capacity in the Dominican Republic ........... 34! Table 4. The Dominican Republic’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2000 and 2007 .............................................. 37! Table 5. Tax Incentives to Support Renewable Energy in the Dominican Republic .......................................... 40! Table 6. Applications for Tax Exemptions to CNE Under Law 57-07 ................................................................ 40! Table 7. An International Comparison of Feed-in Tariffs for Solar Energy ........................................................ 41! Table 8. Calculation of Fossil Fuel Levy at Various Percentages for the Dominican Renewably Energy Fund 43! Table 9. Overview of Registered CDM Projects in the Dominican Republic...................................................... 44! Table 10. Renewable Energy Competences Among Governmental Institutions ............................................... 46!

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
AC AOSIS BHD BOE CAS CCDP CDEEE CDM CfRN CIM CNCCMDL CNE COP CPI CSP DG DIF DNI EIB EDEHID ETED FDI FiT GDP GEF GHI GIZ GMT GWh GWth IBRD IDA IDB IEEE Alternating Current Alliance of Small-Island States Banco Hipotecario Dominicano Barrel of Oil Equivalent Country Assistance Strategy Climate-Compatible Development Plan Corporación Dominicana de Empresas Eléctricas Estatales Clean Development Mechanism Coalition for Rainforest Nations Construction, Installation and Manufacturing National Council for Climate Change and Clean Development Mechanism Comisión Nacional de Energía Conference of the Parties Consumer Price Index Concentrating Solar Power Distributed Generation Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance Direct Normal Irradiance European Investment Bank Empresa de Generación Hidroeléctrica Dominicana Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica Dominicana Foreign Direct Investment Feed-In Tariff Gross Domestic Product Global Environmental Facility Global Horizontal Irradiance Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit Greenwich Mean Time Gigawatt-hour Gigawatts-thermal International Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Development Association Inter-American Development Bank Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers IFC ITIBIS International Finance Corporation Transfer Tax of Industrialized Goods and Services JICA Japanese International Cooperation Agency kW Kilowatt kWh Kilowatt-hour LNG Liquefied Natural Gas MIC Ministry of Industry and Trade MSW Municipal Solid Waste MW Megawatt MWh Megawatt-hour NGO Non-governmental Organization NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NWP Numerical Weather Prediction NYISO New York Independent System Operator O&M Operations and Maintenance OC Organismo Coordinator del Sistema Electrico OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PEN National Energy Plan PLDF Project Layout Discount Factor PV Photovoltaic PVUSA Photovoltaics for Utility Scale Applications SEMARENA Secretaría de Estado de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales SENI Sistema Interconectado Nacional SIDS Small-Island Developing States SIE Superintendencia de Electricidad SME Small and Medium-sized Enterprises STC Standard Test Conditions SWH Solar Water Heating UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VG Variable Generation WFR Weather Research Forecasting

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Eighty-five percent of electricity production in the Dominican Republic is generated from imported fossil fuels. This dependence comes at a high cost for the country’s economy, making it extremely vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations, creating an unfavorable trade balance, and causing local air and water pollution as well as contributing to global climate change. Energy efficiency, generation from domestic renewable energy resources, and smart grid solutions can show the way out of the predicament. This Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System is the result of more than a year of intensive research by the Worldwatch Institute in close collaboration with the Dominican government, local experts, and other key stakeholders. We applied a holistic approach to our work, starting with the most detailed solar and wind resources assessment ever undertaken in the Dominican Republic, and then analyzing both the challenges with grid integration as well as the socioeconomic consequences of increased renewable energy supply. Finally, we evaluated the country’s regulatory, policy, governance, and finance environment and formulated options for reforms in all these sectors. Our in-depth analysis of the solar resource in the Dominican Republic’s two largest cities, Santo Domingo and Santiago, as well as our analysis of the wind resources in six promising zones across the country, yields the following highlights: • There is strong solar potential across the country, with average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) generally ranging from 210 to 250 watts per square meter (W/m2), comparable with the potential of the U.S. Southwest and superior to other well-positioned areas, such as the coast of the Mediterranean Sea. Both Santo Domingo and Santiago have very strong solar potential. Although other sites in the Dominican Republic boast even higher insolation figures, grid integration efficiency and the economies of scale involved in installing and servicing solar equipment in the two biggest load centers make the technology a favorable source of electricity in both cities. For wind resources, we identified 78 sites with a capacity factor of over 30 percent, as well as superior resources mostly in the southwest, including in Pedernales and Baní, and in Montecristi in the northwest. Wind variability is high, however, meaning that wind development will need to consider geographic diversity as a way to address intermittency issues. Decentralized electricity generation using renewable energy systems is particularly attractive in the Dominican Republic because of high transmission and distribution losses in the existing grid as well as the prevalence of residential backup power systems, mostly diesel-powered generators. Improving the grid’s reach and capacity is important for the most efficient and highest level of integration of variable renewable generation.

• •

The Dominican Republic offers good opportunities for investors in solar and wind development because of the declining costs of both technologies and the favorable investment signals sent by existing government incentives, which can and should be further improved. Our evaluation of the current policy and investment environment finds that: The advancement of clean energy has become a national priority that is even built into the Constitution. A 2007 law set a target of a 25 percent share of renewable energy in the country’s final consumption by 2025 and creates support mechanisms to incentivize renewable energy sources with comprehensive tax credits, a feed-in-tariff, and the creation of a fund for renewables. The government also recently declared

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an extremely ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 50 percent below 2010 levels by 2030. The political framework for the advancement of renewable energy thus exists. Although incentives such as tax credits have lowered the price of wind and solar energy generation, the market has barely achieved its full potential. Perceived investment risks and capital costs, as well as subsidies for competing fossil fuels, remain high. The Dominican Republic also faces challenges in implementing the feed-in-tariff; utilities currently lack the capital to pay for the tariff and have limitations in passing the price on to consumers because of high transmission and distribution losses as well as the low number of consumers paying the regular price. Net-metering legislation was adopted only recently and has not had a chance to be fully implemented In addition to rapid full implementation of existing policy mechanisms and the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies, we recommend: • • • Better inter-ministerial coordination and dialogue among all departments involved with promoting renewable energy; Improved participation of the private sector, civil society, academic experts, and other stakeholders in governmental decision-making in order to improve policy buy-in; Increased awareness and capacity building in the entire financial sector, including the communication of renewable energy potentials and the creation of government-backed financial products for renewable energy investors; “Ventanilla Unica,” or one-stop-shop window, within the government to help simplify the complex process that renewable energy investors face in getting permission to advance renewable energy projects.

Our work fits well with ongoing policy and research initiatives of the Dominican government and will be continued in a new project that extends our strategic advice to a greater level of detail and a stronger focus on other important aspects of a sustainable energy transition, including energy efficiency and the use of biomass.

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I. DEVELOPING A SUSTAINABLE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Energy roadmaps are important guideposts to a country’s aspirations for economic progress. At the same time, they sketch out opportunities for a country to contribute to international efforts to strike a more sustainable, climate-friendly development path. The Dominican Republic has made such a commitment, seeking to reduce its carbon footprint while also providing its citizens with secure and sustainable energy access. The first chapter of this report provides international context for this endeavor and outlines key features of a modern, low-emissions energy system in the Dominican Republic. It describes the country’s current electricity system as well as the key challenges to advancing this system toward greater independence and sustainability. Finally, the chapter details the methodology applied in this report as well as the report’s complementarities with other studies.

1. Small Island States: Low-Emissions Development Strategies and Global Climate Change
At the 2009 and 2010 Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), held in Copenhagen, Denmark, and Cancún, Mexico, advanced economies pledged to provide developing countries US$30 billion in financial and technical assistance for climate change adaptation and mitigation by 2012, and $100 billion annually by 2020.1* These efforts are supported by the international development community, including the World Bank, regional development banks, and other international and bilateral mechanisms. These assistance measures reinforce earlier agreements made at the 2007 UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia. According to the Bali Action Plan (commonly known as the “Bali Roadmap”), developing countries are to consider, “[n]ationally appropriate mitigation actions…in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacitybuilding.” The activities of developing countries, as well as the technology transfer and financial assistance efforts of industrial countries, are to be implemented in a “measurable, reportable and verifiable manner.”2 Small-island states have played a proactive role in international climate negotiations. At the Copenhagen conference in December 2009, member countries of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) launched a sustainable energy initiative known as SIDS DOCK, designed as a “docking” station to connect the energy sectors in these countries to wider markets for finance, carbon, and sustainable energy sources. SIDS DOCK commits small-island states to work together to develop renewable energy and energy efficiency options and to seek funding from international carbon markets to implement their low-carbon energy strategies. Historically, developing countries have contributed comparatively little to the world’s climate crisis. Yet these nations are profoundly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including water shortages, reduced food production, and “unnatural” disasters due to increased storm intensity and rising sea levels. Meanwhile, developing-country emissions are growing rapidly, with their combined share of global greenhouse gas output expected to soar in coming decades unless new approaches are taken to develop low-emissions energy, building, and transport systems. Most developing countries, including small-island states, currently lack the technologies and the policies needed to pursue an alternative, less emissions-intensive, path. In addition to providing environmental benefits, low-emissions development strategies can deliver socioeconomic benefits by taking advantage of indigenous renewable energy resources such as solar,
*

All dollar amounts in this report are expressed in U.S. dollars unless indicated otherwise.

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wind, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass, rather than relying on imported fossil fuels. Small-island states can serve as ideal showcases for low-carbon development strategies due to the congruence of their national economic and security interests with the global climate agenda, as well as to their relatively small sizes and the homogeneity of their economies. With adequate support, they can demonstrate on a small scale what needs to be done globally in the long run. Technologies that are available today, and those that are expected to become competitive in the next few years, can permit a rapid decarbonization of the global energy economy if they are deployed properly.3 Modern sustainable energy systems are built on an advanced degree of energy efficiency, a high share of renewable energy in the overall electricity mix, and a strong and flexible grid structure. Additional key components to increasing energy and economic security include the diversification of energy sources and suppliers, a decrease in the level of energy imports, and greater infrastructure stability during natural disasters. As a country particularly vulnerable to destructive weather events, the Dominican Republic needs to develop a stable energy infrastructure that can withstand natural disasters, particularly hurricanes and tropical storms.4 Coal and nuclear power pose serious environmental and safety risks, especially in a disaster-prone region like the Caribbean. Electricity from natural gas can be fed into the electricity grid with much greater flexibility than coal and nuclear baseload power, and it has the benefits of greater efficiency and lower carbon emissions than electricity generated from oil. Therefore natural gas could potentially play an important role as a natural ally of renewable power by compensating for the variability and storage challenges that currently exist with renewables.5 Like most countries in the world, the Dominican Republic has enormous renewable energy resources. In order to harness them, however, an intelligent patchwork of policies and regulations is needed. Lowcarbon energy strategies require the implementation of solutions that are physically available, economically viable, and politically feasible.

2.

The Current Electricity System in the Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is the third largest energy consumer in the Caribbean, after Cuba and Puerto Rico. Electricity generation accounted for more than 60 percent of the country’s primary energy consumption in 2008.6 Final domestic electricity consumption that year was 13,113 gigawatt-hours (GWh), of which 5,342 GWh was used by industry, 4,327 GWh by the residential sector, 2,005 GWh by commercial and public services, and 1,439 GWh by agriculture and forestry.7 In 2010, 15 power companies were operating in the Dominican Republic, with a total of 55 power plants producing 12,272 GWh of electricity—an average annual increase in production of 2.8 percent since 2000.8 In addition, a variety of industries and many private individuals generate their own electricity independently. Despite the country’s growing power capacity and production, electricity shortages are a regular occurrence. In 2010, 1,954 GWh of additional electricity demand went unmet, with the deficit reaching as high as 18.4 percent of total needs in November 2010.9 Until 1997, all electricity generation, transmission, and distribution in the Dominican Republic was state owned. In 1997, the government sold off half of its electricity generation capacity and divested all of its distribution services to private companies. In 2007, the country reverted in part to state ownership, buying back all distribution rights but leaving half the generation capacity in the private sector.10 The grid system in the Dominican Republic (see Figure 1) has one of the highest rates of distribution losses in the world, nearing 38 percent in 2010.11 According to the U.S. State Department, factors responsible for the high losses include capped electricity prices, electricity theft, blackouts, inadequate investment in capacity upgrades, and limited regulatory capacity.12 Although 92 percent of the country’s towns and villages have access to electricity (both on and off the grid), it is difficult to calculate the actual share of the population with access to reliable electricity due to high losses and widespread theft.13

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Distribution losses and limitations leave considerable room to improve and expand the nation’s grid, including through the integration of domestic renewable energy sources. Electricity instability costs the country an estimated $1 billion-plus annually, or some 3.4 percent of national GDP.14
Figure 1. National Integrated Electrical Grid

National energy demand far exceeds existing primary energy resources, leaving the Dominican Republic highly dependent on fossil fuel imports, most importantly oil. Nearly 90 percent of the country’s electricity production is fossil fuel-based.15 (See Figure 2.) Oil accounted for nearly half of all electricity generation in 2010, with the country’s 24 oil-fired power plants producing 43 percent of total generation, and mostly oil-based self-producers adding another 3 percent. Three natural gas-fired power plants generate just over a quarter of the country’s electricity, and three coal-fired plants contribute 15 percent. Only 12 percent of electricity comes from domestic renewable sources, dominated by 25 large hydropower stations. Most of the oil-fired power plants that provide the majority of the Dominican Republic’s electricity generation are old and in need of retirement or replacement. Due to the unreliability of the national grid, many industries and private individuals generate their own electricity using relatively inefficient smallscale fossil fuel-based units. This further perpetuates the country’s high consumer electricity prices and dependence on imported oil.

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In 2010, the Dominican Republic spent $2.6 billion on fossil fuel imports, equivalent to more than 5 percent of its GDP. Before the recent world economic crisis hit fully, oil imports accounted for more than 9 percent of GDP, and it is likely that this share will soon be reached again and possibly exceeded.16 In addition, the government provides tax exemptions for fossil fuel electricity generation as well as a subsidy for electricity consumers which could be as high as USD $700 million this year, twice the annual allocation.17
Figure 2. Annual Electricity Generation by Fuel Type, 2010

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The country’s transportation sector is almost exclusively car- and truck-based and adds to the overall fossil fuel import dependence. Only 5.8 percent of primary energy consumption is produced domestically.18 The rest is met by imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), coal, and crude oil, more than 70 percent of which comes from Venezuela.19 Electricity production costs in the Dominican Republic are higher for diesel fuel than for coal and natural gas.20 (See Table 1.) These costs fluctuate with world fuel prices, and any increase is likely to be passed on to consumers. High expenditures on fuel imports leave the country especially vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. Between January and April 2011, fuel oil prices jumped from $2.89 to $3.48 per gallon, an increase of 20 percent.21 The reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation in the Dominican Republic results not only in massive transfers of wealth to other countries for imports, but also in high costs per unit of energy.
Table 1. Electricity Production Costs per Kilowatt-hour, by Fuel Source, 2011 Natural Gas 8 cents Coal 11 cents Diesel Fuel #6 19 cents Diesel Fuel #2 23 cents

Note: Diesel fuel numbers are used to classify oil types by refining practices, boiling point, and viscosity. Diesel fuel #2 is a high-quality fuel, while fuel #6 is a residual fuel oil that is left over after more valuable fuel is extracted. Diesel fuel #6 is therefore cheaper but much more inefficient and polluting than more refined oil types. Source: See Endnote 21.

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3.

Methodology and Complementarity of This Study

This roadmap is the result of an intensive, multi-year research project on how to seize opportunities and overcome existing barriers in the Dominican energy sector. Because energy infrastructure decisions are decisive for a country’s development and involve difficult trade-offs, it was essential to gather the latest high-quality data as well as to understand the interests and opinions of all of the parties that will be critical to making the proposed ambitious energy plan a reality. Worldwatch energy roadmaps use a multi-pronged approach, combining technical assessments of a country’s renewable resource base with in-depth research, evaluation of specific technological and economic issues, and analysis of existing and potential policies, while weighing different examples of international best practice. From the outset, Worldwatch worked closely with Dominican officials and partners to ensure that the scope of work will complement—not duplicate—all previous efforts in renewable energy integration and grid planning policy. Previous studies have looked at different aspects of the potential for renewables in the Dominican Republic and the Caribbean region, including a 2001 report from the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the Dominican Republic, and a more recent report from the Organization of American States (OAS), Technical Assistance for Biofuel Market Development in the Dominican Republic. Several other reports have looked at promoting renewable energy as a regional strategy, including the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)-funded Blueprint for Green Energy in the Americas.22 Although these studies all served as important references for this project and provided important information about different parts of the renewable energy picture, a comprehensive overview of wind and solar options and strategies at the country level was still lacking. The NREL study, for example, argues for additional research to more accurately assess wind energy potential and determine the best sites for development based on factors like the existing grid. This Worldwatch roadmap aims to fill this information gap. The Worldwatch roadmap methodology takes a holistic approach to assessing the interdependent components of a country’s clean energy potential. (See Figure 3.) We examine a country’s renewable resource potential for renewable energy production, identify opportunities for increased efficiency and energy storage, and catalogue grid enhancement and extension needs. The roadmap also identifies socioeconomic and policy barriers to renewable energy development and relies on international best practice to suggest how they can be overcome. Finally, the roadmap highlights private, public, and multilateral funding options to make renewable energy plans a reality. Worldwatch is also committed to capacity building and knowledge sharing at all levels of government and civil society to help policymakers successfully implement our recommendations. This report presents the most detailed assessment ever undertaken of wind and solar resources in the Dominican Republic. Worldwatch has partnered with 3TIER, Inc., a renewable energy risk-analysis company that develops high-resolution mapping and data, to gain access to comprehensive wind and solar resource datasets. In the Caribbean, as elsewhere, weather patterns may change over time. Thus, it is important to capture the long-term variability of wind and weather so that observations are not onetime inventories, but can be placed in the proper historical context. 3TIER’s simulation also captures the spatial detail of the wind and weather resource, an important factor in accelerating the process of prospecting and screening for potential renewable development sites, especially in areas of complex mountainous terrain. An important early step was the production of country-wide maps visualizing the solar and wind resources in the Dominican Republic. Based on these initial assessments, and on intense discussion with the government, two solar zones and six wind zones were defined, which were then profiled in depth. Indepth analysis of the solar potential was done for the Dominican Republic’s two major cities, Santo Domingo and Santiago, each including hourly time series for the period 1999–2008, annual mean maps, and estimates on monthly and diurnal variation. We also analyzed existing infrastructure to identify the

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potential for, and hurdles to, bringing solar and wind on the grid. The wind and solar resource assessment is presented in chapter II of this study. 3TIER’s more detailed individual assessments are included in the Annex.
Figure 3. Worldwatch's Methodology for Low-Carbon Roadmap Development

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The roadmap focuses on cost-effective ways to harness indigenous wind and solar resources, strengthen local industries, and expand job opportunities. Worldwatch worked with local experts to assess the current status of renewable energy sources as well as the economic, social, and environmental impacts of their expanded deployment in the Dominican Republic. This technical analysis also allows us to catalogue the grid enhancement and extension that increased use of renewable energy could require. The technical and economic assessment presented in chapter III of this report is the result of those consultations and relates them to the findings from the resource assessment undertaken in this as well as other studies. The project team conducted a thorough survey of existing energy laws and regulations. Drawing on international best practice and lessons learned, chapter IV discusses opportunities for policy reforms, looking both at key principles that should guide successful renewable policymaking as well as at concrete policies and measures. The chapter also identifies important administrative support mechanisms and potential sources of finance to support these efforts. Throughout the project, Worldwatch has engaged in local capacity building and knowledge-sharing. Personnel at the Dominican government’s National Energy Commission (Comisión Nacional de Energía, CNE) were trained in using 3TIER’s instrumental data software to ensure the utmost utility of the renewable resource assessments. We have held workshops, participated actively in conferences, and engaged in one-on-one conversations to bring stakeholders together and bridge knowledge gaps between government, private renewable energy investors, utilities, and the financial sector. Worldwatch has used blogging and other social media efforts to further communicate our findings. This final roadmap will be presented to local stakeholders in the Dominican Republic as a concrete tool that they can use for planning and implementation of new renewable energy policies and projects.

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II. ASSESSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC’S WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY POTENTIAL
The first component of this energy roadmap is an assessment of the physical renewable energy resources, specifically solar and wind resources, available in the Dominican Republic.

1.

The Scope of Our Wind and Solar Resource Assessments

Resource assessment data and maps developed at the national level provide important reference points to justify interest in both the Dominican Republic and its energy resources. However, higher-resolution data that covers particular sites can be more useful when making specific planning decisions regarding energy generation and transmission, although these data are also more difficult to obtain. The resource assessment section of this roadmap includes national assessments for both wind and solar. It also includes an in-depth analysis of the solar resource in the Dominican Republic’s two largest cities, Santo Domingo and Santiago, as well as a zonal analysis of the wind resources in six provinces: Montecristi, Puerto Plata, Samaná, La Altagracia, Peravia (referred to hereafter as Baní), and Pedernales. These in-depth assessments are provided by 3TIER, a private renewable resource mapping company; 3TIER’s complete reports are available in Appendices 1–3.

1.1

Background

Santo Domingo and Santiago were chosen as areas of particular focus for solar assessment because of the Dominican government’s interest in distributed generation. These two cities are the centers of electricity consumption in the country, and solar power, among the resources covered, is uniquely suited to household- and business-scale development for both electricity generation and water heating. This report discusses opportunities for commercial-scale solar development as well as standalone systems in the few areas not connected to the national grid, but the focus is on the potential for residential and lightcommercial scale systems. The wind zones were chosen by CNE in consultation with key government stakeholders in the Dominican Republic. The criteria for selecting zones included the wind resource, access to the grid, and potential intrusion on protected areas, resorts, and other areas important to natural habitats and tourism.

1.2

Methodology

Data for the solar assessment were generated using processed satellite data and the output from 3TIER’s proprietary irradiance model. This dataset is based on the past 13-plus years (January 1997– June 2010) of half-hourly high-resolution (roughly 1 kilometer) visible satellite imagery from GOES satellite data. The satellite imagery has been processed to create hourly values for irradiance, wind speed, and temperature. This allows 3TIER to generate annual and monthly means and to track how the daily irradiation pattern varies throughout the year. The 3TIER dataset provides information on three measurements of irradiation that together provide a complete picture of the solar resource. These are: Global Horizontal Irradiance, Direct Normal Irradiance, and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance, as defined below. • Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI): The quantity of the total solar radiation per unit area that is intercepted by a flat, horizontal surface. This value is of particular interest to photovoltaic installations. It includes both direct beam radiation (radiation that comes from the direction of the sun) and diffuse radiation (radiation that has been scattered by the atmosphere and that comes from all directions of the sky).

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Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI): The quantity of direct beam solar radiation per unit area that is intercepted by a flat surface that is at all times pointed in the direction of the sun. This quantity is of particular interest to concentrating solar installations and installations that track the position of the sun. Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DIF): The quantity of diffuse solar radiation per unit area that is intercepted by a flat, horizontal surface that is not subject to any shade or shadow and does not arrive on a direct path from the sun.

The data for the wind assessment were generated using a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. 3TIER simulated the meteorology over the Dominican Republic for a 10-year period, from January 1999 to December 2008. Each of the six provinces was broken down into adjacent grid points of 4.5 kilometers on each side. This is a significant improvement, for example, over the 2000 wind assessment of the Dominican Republic undertaken by NREL, which only went down to a 15 by 15 kilometer resolution. Under ideal conditions, each grid point in the 3TIER analysis could hold 40 turbines in four rows of ten. Of course, practical considerations mean that such turbine density would never be widely achieved. Therefore, it is common to include a Project Layout Discount Factor (PLDF) to account for various limitations such as difficult terrain, aesthetic design considerations, and wake losses. Experience shows that the typical spacing for a wind farm might allow approximately 20 turbines in a 4.5 by 4.5 kilometer area, for a PLDF of 50 percent. Power calculations were made assuming that Vestas V90 (3 MW) turbines—the model customarily used by 3TIER in their analyses—operated at the highest efficiency point, using an “effective wind speed” derived from wind speed, temperature, and pressure data modeled at 10-minute intervals. The output is a capacity factor estimate for each grid point, which measures the amount of power potentially generated compared with the installed capacity of the plant. For example, if a 3 MW turbine generated 1 MW on average, the capacity factor would be one-third, or 33 percent. Estimations do not include electrical or grid losses, or turbulence and wake effects. Additional corrective modeling details can be found in Appendix 3.

1.3

Limitations

3TIER’s analysis is intended to be used for the purposes of planning the country’s central transmission and generation mix, as well as to provide a window into the aggregate potential of the studied regions and the effects of geographic dispersion on fluctuations in generation. It is too coarse to capture the small area phenomena that can cause dramatic wind acceleration or slowdown and therefore deviations from estimated generation. Moreover, the power calculations in the wind analysis are only in gross terms (instead of being net calculations) and therefore cannot be relied upon for development purposes. However, these issues would be examined in the logical next step of site-specific evaluation. It is at this stage that observational data and further modeling could be used in solar and wind calculations to obtain a more accurate understanding of a site’s potential.

2.
2.1

Solar Assessments
Overall Countrywide Assessment

Judged globally, the solar resource in the Dominican Republic is quite good. Average GHI across the country generally ranges from 210 to 250 watts per square meter (W/m2), making it comparable with that of the U.S. Southwest and generally superior to areas along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea. DNI, on the other hand, although still higher than that of much of the globe, is significantly lower than in the Mediterranean and U.S. Southwest. Average values are mostly between 170 and 250 W/m2. (See Figure 4.) Within the Dominican Republic, irradiance is generally higher in the western half of the country, both for GHI and DNI, with some of the best areas found in the southwest.

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2.2

Santo Domingo
Figure 4. Dominican Republic Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI)

Santo Domingo is the capital and largest city in the Dominican Republic, situated on the Caribbean Sea on the country’s southern coast. It is home to roughly one-quarter of the total population, making it the most important potential market for decentralized solar power production. 2.2.1 Solar resource

Santo Domingo’s solar resource is very strong by global standards. The average GHI value at the Santo Domingo site is 5.45 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per square meter per day (227.1 W/m2). (See Figure 5.) This compares favorably with most of the rest of the Caribbean region and is significantly higher than the insolation in the areas of Europe and Asia where solar power penetration is currently highest. In Germany, for example, few locations sport a GHI over 3.0 kWh/m2/day, and virtually nowhere is the GHI above 3.5. The DNI average is 4.97 kWh/m2/day (207.1 W/m2) at the Santo Domingo site, again strong when compared globally, although not as much so. (See Figure 6.) The average DIF is 2.04 kWh/m2/day (85.0 W/m2). Compared to the rest of the Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo has a mediocre solar resource, both in terms of GHI and DNI.
Figure 5. Santo Domingo Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) Figure 6. Santo Domingo Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI)

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The monthly mean GHI varies significantly throughout the year. (See Figure 7.) Average GHI is highest in April and May, with the May mean at 6.29 kWh/m2/day (262.1 W/m2). GHI is between 5.82 and 6.08 kWh/m2/day in March, June, July, and August, but it declines sharply throughout the rest of the year, falling below 5.07 kWh/m2/day for each month during October–February. Monthly mean DNI is much less variable over the course of the year. It peaks in March and April, with a March value of 5.45 kWh/m2/day. DNI is lowest in December, at 4.53 kWh/m2/day, but all months during July–January are below 4.85. DNI monthly means are more variable year-to-year, however. During the course of the day, GHI peaks in the early afternoon throughout the year, highest between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. and usually peaking between 1 and 2 p.m. (See Figure 8.) The peak hourly mean is consistently over three times the daily mean. DNI is of course also highest during the middle of the day, but because it involves tracking the sun’s movement, the peaks more closely resemble plateaus that last from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. The largest values for DNI are found in the mid-afternoon during February– May, early afternoon during June–September, and late morning during October–January. According to data from the annual reports of the Organismo Coordinator del Sistema Electrico (OC), electricity generation reaches its peak in the late summer months of July and August, with an average of 987,000 megawatt-hours (MWh) generated in July from 2005 to 2009. Monthly generation averages 950,000 MWh or more during May–October but is lower during the other half of the year, particularly in January and February. There is consistently a high level of unmet electricity demand in the Dominican Republic as well, often as much as 200,000 MWh per month. There is no clear pattern in the time of the year when unmet demand is highest over the years 2005– 2009. Solar irradiance lines up reasonably well with demand, as GHI stays high through all the months of highest electricity use save September and October. DNI matches consumption less well, as it is relatively lower in late summer.

Figure 7. Monthly Variation in Santo Domingo

Figure 8. Daily Variation in Santo Domingo

Daily load curves show that the highest electricity demand occurs in the evening, from 7 p.m. to 11 p.m. This of course means that other solutions will be necessary to meet peak demand. During daylight hours, peak demand varies somewhat depending on the day of the week, falling as early as 12–1 p.m. or as late as 2–3 p.m. This matches up well with the daily variance in irradiance, although more so with GHI than DNI, as DNI dips right in the middle of the day in some months. Concentrated solar thermal power with storage would be an option for using solar energy to serve these evening demands.

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2.2.2

Effects of wind and temperature

For photovoltaic systems, there is significant power degradation when the module temperature rises. For each degree that the module temperature rises above standard test conditions (STC), the module loses roughly 0.5 percent of its capacity, by rule of thumb. The conversion from STC (25 degree Celsius module temperature) to Photovoltaics for Utility Scale Applications (PVUSA) test conditions (PTC) (20°C ambient temperature; module temperature is usually 20–30°C above ambient) and 1 meter per second wind speed results in an 11 percent de-rating. In Santo Domingo, losses due to module temperature would likely be larger than in most locations. The hourly mean ambient temperature in Santo Domingo is always above 20°C, exceeding 28°C in the early afternoon even during the coldest months and staying over 30°C throughout the middle of the day during the summer. This would result in very high module temperatures. However, the average wind speed is also relatively high, with hourly means above 3 meters per second over almost all the daylight hours throughout the year. Winds are also strongest during the early afternoon hours, when temperature is highest. With increased wind speed comes increased heat loss in the module due to convection, and therefore somewhat lower power degradation.

2.3

Santiago

Santiago is the second largest city in the Dominican Republic, located inland in the northwestern part of the country. The Santiago metro area is home to 15 percent of the country’s population, making it another very important potential market for decentralized solar power production. 2.3.1 Solar resource

Santiago’s solar resource is very strong by global standards. The average GHI value at the Santiago site is 5.60 kWh/m2/day (233.2 W/m2). (See Figure 9.) This compares favorably with most of the rest of the Caribbean region and is significantly higher than the insolation in the areas of Europe and Asia where solar power penetration is currently highest. In Germany, for example, few locations have a GHI over 3.0 kWh/m2/day, and virtually nowhere is the GHI above 3.5. The DNI average is 5.35 kWh/m2/day (223.1 W/m2) at the Santiago site, again strong when looking globally, although not as much so. (See Figure 10.) The average DIF is 1.90 kWh/m2/day (79.3 W/m2). Based solely on a resource comparison, there are more favorable locations than Santiago. However, compared to the rest of the Dominican Republic, Santiago has an above average solar resource in terms of both GHI and DNI.
Figure 9. Santiago Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) Figure 10. Santiago Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI)

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The monthly mean GHI varies significantly throughout the year. (See Figure 11.) Average GHI is highest during June–August, with the July mean at 6.72 kWh/m2/day (280.3 W/m2). GHI stays high, between 5.66 and 6.22 kWh/m2/day in March, April, May, and September, but it declines sharply throughout the rest of the year, reaching a low of 4.05 kWh/m2/day in December. Monthly mean DNI is much less variable over the course of the year. It peaks in July and August, with an August value of 5.79 kWh/m2/day. DNI is significantly lower during November–January than during the rest of the year, with a low in December of 4.80 kWh/m2/day. DNI monthly means are more variable year-to-year, however. During the course of the day, GHI peaks in the early afternoon throughout the year, highest between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m. and usually peaking between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. (See Figure 12.) The peak hourly mean is consistently more than three times the daily mean. DNI is of course also highest during the middle of the day, but because it involves tracking the sun’s movement it peaks less sharply and at various times between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. depending on the month. The daily trend for DIF closely mirrors that of GHI, with a consistent peak between 1 p.m. and 3 p.m. As mentioned earlier, electricity generation reaches its peak in the late summer months of July and August, with an average of 987,000 MWh generated in July from 2005 to 2009. Monthly generation averages 950,000 MWh or more during May–October, but is lower during the other half of the year, particularly in January and February. There is consistently a high level of unmet demand in the Dominican Republic as well, often as much as 200,000 MWh per month. There is no clear pattern in the time of the year when unmet demand is highest over the years 2005 to 2009. Solar irradiance in Santiago and monthly generation match up very well, as GHI and DNI are also highest in late summer and GHI stays high over the entire peak generation period save October. Daily load curves show that the highest demand occurs in the evening, from 7 p.m. to 11 p.m., which means other solutions will be necessary to meet peak demand. During daylight hours, peak demand varies somewhat depending on the day of the week, falling as early as 12 p.m. to 1 p.m. or as late as 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. This matches up well with the daily variance in irradiance, both for GHI and DNI. Again, concentrated thermal solar power with storage would be an option to use solar energy to serve these evening demands.

Figure 11. Monthly Variation in Santiago

Figure 12. Daily Variation in Santiago

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2.3.2

Effects of wind and temperature

As discussed previously, there is significant power degradation for PV systems when the module temperature rises. With slight variations, conditions in Santiago are similar to those in Santo Domingo with regard to efficiency degradation. In Santiago, losses due to module temperature would likely be larger than in most locations. The hourly mean ambient temperature in Santiago is always above 20°C during daylight hours, exceeding 26°C in the early afternoon even during the coldest months and staying over 30°C throughout the middle of the day during May–October. This would result in very high module temperatures. However, the average wind speed is also relatively high, with hourly means above 3 meters per second over the daylight hours throughout the year. Winds are also strongest during the early to mid-afternoon hours, and during the summer, when temperature is highest. With increased wind speed comes increased heat loss in the module due to convection, and therefore somewhat lower power degradation.

2.4

Summary of Solar Potential

Both Santo Domingo and Santiago have strong solar potential. Although other sites in the Dominican Republic boast higher insolation figures, the integration efficiencies and economies of scale involved in installing and servicing solar in the two biggest load centers are notable, and the resources are very strong. There are other avenues for solar development that deserve closer scrutiny. Outside the cities, particularly in the sunniest areas of the western part of the country, either PV or concentrating solar power (CSP) grid-scale solar development may be viable. Opportunities also exist for off-grid solar development, both for the small number of households currently not connected to the national grid and in the tourism industry. With many resorts relying on generators off the grid, there is significant room for solar development. Solar may not only be clearly economical compared with diesel and other fuels in some circumstances, but solar installations along with other measures may allow resorts to market themselves as “eco-friendly” in the mold of destinations in Costa Rica and elsewhere in Latin America.

3.
3.1

Wind Assessments
Overview of Countrywide Data

The Dominican Republic has a good wind resource. Many locations boast an average wind speed of over 7 meters per second at 80 meters above sea level, and a number of locations offer average speeds greater than 8 meters per second. (See Figure 13.) One global study found that roughly 13 percent of locations have wind speeds of 7 meters per second or greater, generally considered an indication that low-cost wind energy development is possible. The best wind resource is in the western half of the country, both in areas along the southern and northern coasts and in the central mountains along the border with Haiti.

Figure 13. Dominican Republic Wind Resource at 80 Meters

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3.2

Wind Resource by Zone

Beyond producing nationwide wind resource maps, 3TIER performed more granular analysis for six provinces: Montecristi, Puerto Plata, Samaná, La Altagracia, Baní, and Pedernales. The provinces were split up into grid points of 4.5 by 4.5 kilometers, meaning that each province has a different number of points, ranging from 43 in Baní to 139 in La Altagracia. (See Figure 14.) 3TIER split these grid points into the number in each province with capacity factors of over 20, 25, and 30 percent to determine the areas with the greatest potential. A grid point with a PLDF of 50 percent would produce 105 GWh/yr at a 20 percent capacity factor, 131 GWh/yr at 25 percent, and 158 GWh/yr at 30 percent, using 3 MW V90 turbines. This analysis shows that La Altragracia and Samaná fail to meet criteria that generally define areas with strong wind potential, having just one site with a capacity factor over 20 percent between them and none above 25. Puerto Plata also has limited attractiveness. Over one-third of the grid points have a capacity factor of over 20 percent, but only two surpass 25, and none reach 30. Montecristi, Pedernales, and Baní are the three provinces that clearly have the superior resource. (See Figure 15 and Table 2.) Just under one-third (30 of 91) of the grid points of Montecristi, the northwest corner of the country, have a capacity factor over 25 percent, and there are five over 30 percent. Baní, along the southern coast, enjoys a 20 percent or greater capacity factor over almost all of its area (41 of 43 grid points). More than two-thirds of the grid points are above 25 percent, and 18 are above 30 percent. Pedernales, however, has the largest array of grid points with attractive winds. Of the 92 grid points, 55 have a capacity factor over 30 percent. The six provinces have 78 such sites in total (all in Montecristi, Pedernales, and Baní), meaning that 70 percent of the most attractive sites are located in Pedernales.

Figure 14. Grid Points Examined in the Six Provinces

Figure 15. Wind Capacity Factor for Each Grid Point

Table 2. Total Grid Points and Wind Capacity Factor by Region Region Pedernales Baní Montecristi Puerto Plata La Altagracia Samaná All Regions
Source: 3TIER Inc.

Total Grid Points 92 43 91 84 139 45 494

Grid Points w/ Capacity Factor >= 20% 70 41 72 30 0 1 214

Grid Points w/ Capacity Factor >= 25% 60 29 30 2 0 0 121

Grid Points w/ Capacity Factor >= 30% 55 18 5 0 0 0 78

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3.3

Variability

One of the challenges with wind power is its intermittency. The wind does not blow continuously and also varies significantly throughout the year and the day. How pronounced this variation is, and how complementary the resources are throughout a country, go a long way to determining the viability of adding wind power to the grid. 3.3.1 Seasonal variation

The seasonal variation in the Dominican Republic is significant, similar to most other tropical countries. In areas with heavy seasonal rainfall, weather events tend to be heavily influenced by long-lasting high and low pressure zones, which occur relatively consistently. However, the pattern is not completely consistent within the Dominican Republic. (See Figure 16.) Baní and Pedernales both have two distinct windy seasons in the summer and winter, whereas Montecristi and Puerto Plata have one clear windy season in the summer. These patterns are relatively consistent yearto-year as well. The summer winds have almost always peaked from June to August. The winter winds have been somewhat more variable over the past 10 years, with the December–January peak sometimes pushed back as late as March. This can lead to difficulties in power system planning and the scheduling of long-term maintenance. 3.3.2 Diurnal variation

Figure 16. Monthly Variation in Wind Generation by Province

The diurnal variation, or daily cycle of wind patterns, is also important as wind is more useful when it occurs during times of peak demand. Here, as well, there is obvious divergence between the northwestern and southwestern provinces studied (See Figure Figure 17. Hourly Variation in Wind Generation by Province 17; note that the Dominican Republic is in time zone -4:00 GMT). Pedernales and Baní both see generation peak overnight (11 p.m. to 2 a.m.) and then slowly decline throughout the day until reaching a minimum around 6 p.m. Generation in Montecristi and Puerto Plata, however, peaks around 5 p.m., stays high until around 9 p.m., and stays low overnight and throughout most of the day.

3.4

Ramp Events

The frequency with which sites experience significant changes in generation over short periods of time, known as “ramp events,” plays a role in determining their attractiveness as well. Of the four provinces with the best resource, representative sites from Puerto Plata, Montecristi, and Pedernales show less variation in 10-minute intervals (see Figure 18), whereas Puerto Plata and Baní are the least variable from hour-to-hour (see Figure 19). In both cases, geographical diversification reduces both the number and size of ramp events—either positive or negative changes in output that are greater than 5 percent of

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installed capacity—but the effect is much greater over 10-minute intervals, as there is less time for multiple sites to be affected by the same weather pattern. The PLDF also has a meaningful effect on ramp events, again most notably when examining ramp events over 10-minute periods. A higher PLDF, with fewer turbines per grid point, would mean that an installation of a given capacity would cover more area. This would make the wind speed seen by each turbine less strongly correlated with the wind speed seen by the other turbines in the installation, and would therefore make ramp events less severe and less frequent. The relationship between area covered and number of 10-minute ramp events is roughly exponential, whereas it is roughly linear when looking at hourly variation. Simply expanding the size of installations, however, is not a solution; a small ramp at a large project can be larger in megawatts than a large ramp at a small project.

Figure 18. Histogram of 10-minute Ramp Events for Representative Sites in Each Province

3.5

Complementarity

There are opportunities to significantly reduce the variability of wind generation through geographical diversity. Looking at seasonal and diurnal variation among different provinces, it is clear that having wind farms in both the northern (Montecristi and Puerto Plata) and southern (Baní and Pedernales) zones, if properly placed, could lead to more consistent output than farms in any one location. With seasonal peaks in the summer in the south and winter in the north, production throughout the year would be more level. The northern provinces also see their average daily peak in the early evening, when the southern provinces are at their minimum. Figure 17 demonstrates that averaging the daily generation patterns of all six provinces (this includes Samaná and La Altagracia) produces an almost flat line.
Figure 19. Histogram of 60-minute Ramp Events for Representative Sites in Each Province

3.6

Summary of Wind Potential

The 3TIER analysis shows that the Dominican Republic has many locations with strong wind energy potential, particularly in the southwest, but these must be chosen carefully. The wind regimes across the Dominican Republic also have strong variability—both diurnally and seasonally—which means that if the wind projects are all built in a single location, the generation is likely to cause concerns for system operation. However, different regions have complementary diurnal cycles that could be used to limit the power system’s exposure to a strong daily variation. Lastly, geographic diversity can play a major role in reducing the short-term variability of the power output such that the inclusion of wind generation may act to strengthen the grid reliability of the Dominican Republic.

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III. ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
This chapter contains a summary of current renewable energy technologies that are applicable in the Dominican Republic, examines the technical considerations for integrating wind and solar energy into the existing grid, and assesses the potential effect of renewables deployment on “green” jobs in the country.

1.
1.1

Status of Renewable Energy Technologies
Solar Electricity

A suite of relatively mature technologies is available to convert the sun’s energy into electricity. These generally fit into one of two categories: photovoltaic (PV) modules that convert light directly into electricity, and concentrating solar power (CSP) systems that convert sunlight into heat energy that is later used to drive an engine. Solar power can operate at any scale. Whereas CSP systems generally are considered viable only as utility-scale power plants, PV technology is modular and can be scaled down for use on a household rooftop, in settings of medium size such as resorts and industrial facilities, or as part of a network in large utility-scale PV farms. In most markets, solar power is not yet cost competitive with conventional electricity generation. Government supports, whether in the form of feed-in tariffs, portfolio standards, or tax credits, are usually necessary to accelerate adoption of this technology. Costs for solar systems are falling rapidly, however, and an oversupply of modules may further accelerate this decline. In certain situations, solar is already cost competitive. Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported recently that PV installations in the Gulf region are offsetting electricity generated from oil, bringing positive returns.23 In the Dominican Republic, solar PV has long been used in off-grid locations to provide power to remote homes and businesses, isolated infrastructure, and other loads. The country’s second largest cellular service provider, Orange, has retrofitted each of 67 cell towers with an 800 watt solar panel as part of an effort to reduce fuel consumption at more than 500 such towers nationwide. The project, initiated by Orange’s parent company, France Telecom, is based on the success of a similar initiative in Africa and has reduced fuel expenditures 15 percent over what they otherwise would have been. Other notable installations include a grid-connected 72 kW array at the Santo Domingo headquarters of Trace Solar, a solar developer, and similar installations on Trace’s other offices. Trace currently is installing three systems of more than 20 kW each for private customers. At the time of this writing, no utility-scale PV installations were operational in the Dominican Republic. However, the Grupo Empresas Dominicanas de Energia Renovable (GEDER) expects to begin construction on a 30 MW facility in Monteplata in July 2011. The first project could be online by early 2012. Another 50 MW PV project in Azua province has had its Project Idea Note (PIN) approved under the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) but does not yet have a projected date of installation.

1.2

Solar Water Heating

Solar power is commonly used for water heating, replacing electric or gas systems. In 2009, global solar water and space heating capacity reached 180 Gigawatts-thermal (GWth), 80 percent of which is in China and the vast majority of which is used for water heating.24 Solar water heating (SWH) can be either active or passive, meaning that the systems either use pumps and controllers to move and regulate the water or rely only on convection. Active systems are more efficient but are also more expensive and require significantly more maintenance. Passive systems have no moving parts and are valued for their simplicity. SWH systems are much cheaper than either PV or CSP and are broadly cost competitive globally. Their attractiveness for sunny island states is clear: Cyprus is the world’s leader in SWH installations per

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capita.25 Barbados’ experience with SWH is considered a regional renewable energy success story in the Caribbean. Duty-free equipment imports and tax incentives have created a thriving market, with 35,000 SWH systems installed on homes, businesses, and hotels, as well as a market penetration of 33 percent for residential buildings. Payback periods are in many cases under two years. The success of this project was cited explicitly by the IDB in announcing a multimillion dollar loan to Barbados for continued renewable energy development.26 The Dominican Republic has yet to utilize SWH at any meaningful scale. With the costs of SWH systems being so far below those of PV for each unit of energy generated, promoting SWH certainly qualifies as low-hanging fruit for increasing the uptake of renewable energy in the Dominican Republic.

1.3

Wind

Wind power has been by far the most successful of the new crop of renewable energy technologies, with almost 200,000 MW installed globally by the end of 2010.27 In some markets, the costs of wind power are competitive with fossil fuel technologies and are estimated at 4–7 U.S. cents per kWh in attractive locations.28 However, wind power is not as modular as solar power. Turbines come in different sizes, but wind power is used mostly at a larger, utility scale because smaller turbines see lower wind speeds at their elevation and are thus less efficient. In the Dominican Republic, the government’s long-term plans include adding significant wind capacity, At the utility scale, two adjacent wind farms, Juancho Los Cocos and Quilvio Cabrera, will begin operation in the fourth quarter of 2011. The combined project, located on the border of Pedernales and Barahona provinces, will have a total installed capacity of 33 MW and the potential for expansion up to 75 MW. Two more projects, one in Matafonogo, Peravia, and the other in El Guanillo, Montecristi, are expected to come online by the end of 2011 or in early 2012, with 80 MW of installed capacity. As of 2009, CNE had granted more than 40 wind energy concessions, although many have expired and few petitioners are anywhere near construction. A recently conducted cost analyses for energy sources in the Dominican Republic found that wind sites, both with and without backup, were economical at capacity factors of 30 percent and over.29 3TIER’s wind assessment suggests that numerous locations in Pedernales, Montecristi, and Baní are economical based on their resource and are worthy of closer scrutiny.

1.4

Small Hydropower

Small hydropower is used around the world, especially in remote areas. Usually classified as hydropower that generates less than 10 MW of electricity, it can operate as “run-of-the-river” systems that divert water to channels leading to a waterwheel or turbine, or, similar to larger hydropower stations, it can operate as dammed systems that have small-scale storage reservoirs. Small hydro has several advantages as an energy source, including the ability to provide cheap and clean electricity to communities in remote areas that may not have access to other resources. But small hydro has high upfront costs compared with conventional energy sources and requires certain site characteristics, including users in close proximity to a hydro resource as well as an adequate flow rate of the stream. Low consumer demand for the electricity due to the lack of economically productive uses for electricity in rural areas often makes attracting funding difficult. Issuing grants or setting up preferential financing schemes, as well as cultivating local small hydro manufacturing economies, have proven crucial for initiating and maintaining small hydro projects in developing countries. The Dominican Republic has more hydropower potential than any other Caribbean country, with an estimated 9,000 GWh per year technically feasible, according to the International Network on Small Hydropower.30 The country’s electricity system coordinating agency, Organismo Coordinador (OC), reports that the Dominican Republic has 523 MW of large hydropower installed.31 The Dominican Hydropower Generation Company has plans to install another 119.2 MW of large, medium, and small hydropower capacity that would generate an additional estimated 403 GWh per year.32 As renewable

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energy systems, small hydro systems are eligible under the country’s new renewable energy law, Law 57-07, for specific financial benefits, including import tax exemptions and a price premium of 0.07 cents per kWh for electricity generated by grid-connected systems. Small hydropower projects have been of great benefit to rural areas of the Dominican Republic, especially in communities that cannot connect to the national grid. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), through the Global Environment Facility's Small Grants Program, has helped start 15 small hydropower projects, which supply electricity to 998 families and have a total installed capacity of 233 kW. In addition, 30 small hydropower projects sponsored by various rural electrification programs are being planned or designed and will bring 900 kW to more than 1,000 homes in remote parts of the country.33 These projects, while providing electricity, also provide economic development. Local community members are involved in the building and operation of the small hydro projects, thereby creating a sense of ownership. In places like Jarabocoa, small hydro projects have helped spur ecotourism development projects like the Sonido Del Yaque Ecolodge.

1.5

Biomass

Many potential sources of biomass feedstock exist in the Caribbean, including agricultural crop residues such as sugarcane bagasse, coffee husk, rice straw, and coconut shells, as well as woody biomass. Crop residue and woody biomass are renewable and, arguably, clean energy sources. Crop residue follows a regular pattern of production and can be measured proportionally to the amount of land used to grow the crop and the number of times the crop is produced each year. Both forms of biomass can be used for heat or electricity, or they can be gasified to have the same functionality of petroleum and natural gas, but with lower net carbon emissions. The Dominican Republic’s Climate-Compatible Development Plan contains an abatement cost curve estimating that by 2030, power from biomass could save almost 1.5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent.34 In the Dominican Republic, as elsewhere, one of the key barriers to developing biomass as an energy source is the logistical challenge of collecting the dispersed biomass residue in an economically efficient way. In addition, managing agricultural waste so that the soil quality is not compromised for future crops will be important to achieving a net positive societal outcome from using biomass. But scaling up biomass too much could have serious implications for the local environment, affecting key ecosystem services, biodiversity, and the tourism industry. However, given the sizeable role this fuel source may play in the country’s energy matrix, particularly its potential to fill gaps between generation and consumption and thereby provide a higher level of grid stability, it cannot go overlooked. A study of the biomass potential in the Dominican Republic found that sugarcane bagasse alone could supply an amount of energy equivalent to the country’s oil needs for 18 days out of the year (2.2 million barrels of oil-equivalent).35 Coffee, coconut shell, and rice husk residues could collectively supply the energy equivalent for another 4.5 days out of the year. Biomass pilot projects currently under way in the country include generating energy from municipal solid waste (MSW), reactivating sugar mills to produce sugarcane-based ethanol and bagasse, and feeding biodigesters with various feedstocks.

1.6

Wave and Tidal

Wave energy is a third-hand form of solar energy. Sunlight warms pockets of air, producing temperature gradients that induce atmospheric circulation in the form of wind, and wind drives water to produce waves. The peaks and troughs that store the wave’s potential energy are proportional to how fast and consistent the wind blows over an open area of water. Tidal energy is created by imbalances between the gravitational forces of the Earth, Moon, and Sun in orbit and the forces required to keep the orbits in place. The regular cycles of the orbits create a regular cycle of inflows and outflows in certain tidal estuaries and channels. Many tidal power systems use a design similar to wind turbines, except they are located underwater at the base of tidal estuaries and

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channels. Because water is roughly 1,000 times denser than air, the systems are capable of producing roughly 1,000 times more energy than wind using water moving with the same flow speed as the air. Wave and tidal power face similar economic and technical barriers. The costs of building and installing these systems, including both the generation equipment and the underwater cables, is extremely high, and existing global capacity is almost exclusively in the form of pilot and demonstration projects. There also are many uncertainties when it comes to maintaining the technology in seawater, including corrosion and coexistence with other human uses of coastal waters such as fishing and recreation. The Dominican Republic has no existing wave or tidal facilities, although a wave energy pilot project may soon be installed in Barahona province as part of a breakwater installation.36

2.

Technical Considerations for Wind and Solar Generation

Both wind and solar PV power are types of variable generation (VG), meaning that they cannot store their fuel source and that—without associated storage—they cannot be “dispatched,” or ordered to generate power in response to changes in demand. Therefore, both come with particular technical challenges relating to grid connection and integration. However, the nature of these challenges depends less on the resource than on the scale of the installation. Distributed generation (DG) systems, which are small and do not necessarily feed their energy into the grid, face different issues than centralized, utility-scale VG projects. Both wind and solar power can be used in either application, although wind is generally considered to be better suited to larger-scale installations. There are a variety of issues associated with VG that must be considered and addressed, as laid out below. None of these make the development of wind and solar resources infeasible or negate the many economic and social benefits of renewable energy generation. But for the Dominican Republic to be able to take full advantage of its abundant wind and solar potential, it must invest in improvements to its grid infrastructure and involve a broad range of stakeholders in designing an electricity system that is friendly to VG.

2.1
2.1.1

Distributed Generation
Grid connection

Distributed generation systems do not, even if installed at grid-connected locations, inherently pose technical problems. A basic grid-connected DG system simply generates power behind the user’s meter, reducing the amount of electricity that is drawn from the distribution network and appearing to the grid simply as a reduction in electricity demand. Regulations that provide incentives for interconnecting DG systems so that they can actually feed power back into the grid (such as feed-in tariffs) complicate this picture, although they have the potential to significantly improve the systems’ cost competitiveness. Due to the very low penetration of DG and to the lack of incentives to feed into the grid in the Dominican Republic to-date, no grid enhancement has been yet required for the installation of distributed solar systems. The creation of a feed-in tariff or net-metering program, each at a different stage of implementation in the country (see chapter IV), would require additional infrastructure and place further demands on the distribution system. A net-metering policy may necessitate the installation of a two-way meter, which could track both the electricity consumed from the grid and the electricity sent back into it. A feed-in tariff, on the other hand, will be more complicated to implement, necessitating the installation of additional wiring and a second meter to separately track the higher-priced electricity generated by the DG system. 2.1.2 Grid integration

There are legitimate concerns about the impact of interconnected DG systems on the grid.37 Achieving a high penetration of interconnected DG will require that both grid operators and regulators have a better

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understanding of several key issues, as well as a greater awareness of the potential solutions. These issues include: • Power flow reversal. In instances where high distributed power generation exceeds the local electricity demand, this increases the voltage in the local network and may exceed the voltage that the grid supplies, reversing power flow. Reversed power flow may overload and damage electrical equipment if the grid is already experiencing power flow near its maximum capacity.38 To design a system that effectively addresses power flow reversal and maximum power flow parameters, engineers must first identify the unique infrastructure of the grid and DG for each new large installation—as well as on a localized aggregate basis if there is a high density of small DG installations. Voltage regulation. Voltage regulation allows grid operators to ensure a high quality of electricity by maintaining distribution line voltage to within 5 to 10 percent of the designed operating voltage.39 DG systems fluctuate in voltage output during operation, or when turned on and off, and can potentially harm sensitive loads (like manufacturing equipment) to which they supply power. Static VAR compensators (a specialized electrical device for high-voltage systems) and load tap changers (mechanisms contained within power transformers) can regulate voltage levels by incrementally adjusting power on the distribution line.40 Harmonic distortion. When the fundamental frequency of the electric current is distorted by other interfering frequencies, this can cause the total effective current to exceed the capacity of the transmission system, leading to overheating and voltage regulation problems.41 Any DG unit connected to the grid must comply with limits for maximum harmonic distortion as outlined by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Standard 519. Modern inverters are able to reduce the distortion effect of DG to the point of negligibility.42 Passive and active power filters are electronic devices that can also suppress harmonics. Protection scheme disturbance. This may occur when an existing network has several measures in place to protect against bidirectional power flow or an exceeding of the maximum transmission line capacity. When a new DG system begins feeding power back into the grid, a fuse (for example) may melt if the power flow exceeds a certain threshold to prevent damage to the grid downstream. Fuses, circuit breakers, relays, reclosers, and sectionalizers may all need to be redesigned.43 Unintentional islanding. This is the most significant problem that may occur with DG systems, although it has been largely solved by advances in inverter standards. In the event of a grid outage, breakers automatically isolate the section of the grid in which a power interruption occurs. A generator that is still providing power within this “island” during a grid interruption can interfere with the breaker isolation procedure, leading to longer-than-necessary outages. More seriously, a technician attempting to fix a line that is thought to be disconnected but is actually still being powered can create a lethal hazard.44 Furthermore, if a generator is operating within an island, the alternating current (AC) on the island may begin to alternate out of phase with the AC on the grid, and out-ofphase reconnection can severely damage equipment.45 Both passive and active solutions exist for preventing islanding by disconnecting the DG within a standard timeframe. Passive methods measure the grid power at the DG unit’s point of connection and disconnect the unit if the grid power ceases, but they are designed to be insensitive in order to prevent unnecessary disconnection. Active methods solve the islanding issue by periodically injecting small bursts of power into the grid and observing the response, but they are criticized for reducing power quality. It is difficult to determine the exact level of DG penetration that will require strengthening of the Dominican Republic’s distribution network. However, it is critical that DG installers and grid operators devote serious attention to these issues. An engineer who installs a DG system must have a strong understanding of the challenges and solutions relating to the particular grid location, utility parameters,

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and DG system. It is also helpful for utility engineers to plan for future DG penetration when completing standard maintenance on the grid, to reduce any future burdens on the grid or their customers. As a final but important note, the high technical and non-technical loss in the Dominican Republic’s transmission and distribution grids, estimated at up to 38 percent, has a significant positive impact on the economics of DG systems.46 Because these systems generate electricity at the point of use that does not need to pass through the grid, a kilowatt-hour that comes from a rooftop solar panel is more valuable than a kilowatt-hour from a coal or diesel plant, equivalent to 1.61 kWh from a power plant if losses are indeed 38 percent. Integration with the grid under a net-metering or feed-in tariff regime, however, would mean that some of the DG system’s output would then be subject to the grid’s losses. The Dominican Republic’s grid losses are reflected in high electricity prices, which make distributed systems more financially attractive there than in countries where grid power prices are lower. But the installation of DG systems would also reduce the number of overall kilowatt-hours that have to be generated in the country, improving the efficiency of the electricity system. Consequently, the promotion of DG is a worthy national priority.

2.2
2.2.1

Centralized Generation
Grid connection

Both connecting to and integrating with the transmission grid pose challenges for utility-scale VG. The production of utility-scale wind and solar facilities is far more location-dependent than that of fossil fuelbased plants, which consume portable (though often costly to transport) feedstocks. Therefore, finding a viable wind or solar site requires balancing the resource available at the location with its proximity to existing infrastructure. This is particularly true in a country such as the Dominican Republic, where transmission lines are not well distributed but rather are concentrated in the corridor between Santo Domingo and Santiago. Many areas in the western part of the country are far from existing transmission lines. The Los Cocos and Quilvio Cabrera wind farms, for example, required the construction of an on-location substation as well as 54 kilometers of transmission line to connect to the grid. GEDER chose to locate its first two utility-scale solar projects in Monteplata, a province in the middle of the country that has (by Dominican standards) a mediocre solar resource, simply because the generators could be located adjacent to existing substations, making new transmission lines unnecessary. Even in parts of the country with a very good wind or solar resource, the cost of grid extension may make development prohibitively expensive in some of the areas surveyed by 3TIER. 2.2.2 Grid integration

The ability of the Dominican grid system to absorb VG may slow the growth of renewable generation in the absence of continued improvements to infrastructure and market design. Although much of what dictates the ability of a grid to accept VG is predetermined, there are many steps the Dominican Republic can take to ease the process. 2.2.2.1 Flexibility and interconnection Grid flexibility—how quickly an electricity system can adjust electricity supply and load up and down—is a function of both the grid’s physical characteristics and its operational and market design.47 All grids require a certain amount of flexibility to balance fluctuations in demand throughout the hour and day, as well as unexpected changes in supply in situations such as malfunctions or severe weather events. The integration of VG adds another element of variability to the grid system and therefore generally requires greater grid flexibility. Consequently, changes that can increase the grid’s overall flexibility or reduce the need for flexibility to respond to demand fluctuations increase the potential for accommodating higher penetrations of VG.

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Some of the physical characteristics that determine flexibility are out of the control of grid operators. For example, larger grids or balancing areas, whether measured by the number of generating facilities or the geographic area covered, are more flexible because variability in supply and demand can be smoothed by aggregation in balancing areas with more diverse types of power plants. The ability of the generation fleet to supply variability to respond to changes in VG generation increases linearly as the balancing area grows, but the variability of VG increases less than linearly.48 For example, as described in section 3.3, two wind farms in different locations generate a combined output that is less variable than that of either single farm. A study in New York State, a geographic area just 20 percent larger than the Dominican Republic, found that combining the 11 zones of the state’s power system reduced hourly wind variability by 33 percent and five-minute wind variability by 53 percent.49 For similar reasons, the number and capacity (in MW) of interconnections with neighboring grids is also positively correlated with grid flexibility. If neighboring grids are equipped to supply each other with needed variability in order to deal with excess or missing production, they can recreate the advantage of a larger balancing area within a single grid. The correlations between renewable generation and demand also help determine the amount of VG that can be comfortably integrated. If the peaks and valleys of wind or solar generation match up well with the peaks and valleys of demand, it is easier to fit them in with the rest of the generation fleet. On these counts, the Dominican Republic does not seem an ideal location for heavy centralized VG penetration. Small islands are at a disadvantage because they tend to have small and geographically isolated grids (if any). Although underwater electricity transmission lines can be built, the cost rises sharply with the distance and depths they must cross.50 The Dominican Republic is no exception, as its grid is smaller than regional grids in the United States and national grids in many areas that have existing high VG penetration. However, studies indicate how some island regions, such as Oahu in the U.S. state of Hawaii, would be able to integrate VG with the grid without sacrificing reliability.51 (See Sidebar 1.) Although the Dominican Republic is not entirely isolated, its neighbor Haiti’s collection of three local, outdated grids would offer little in the way of support even if the two countries’ grids were interconnected. The Dominican government has begun initial discussions about interconnection with Puerto Rico, which would give the Dominican Republic access to a much more robust grid than Haiti’s. Even though the channel between the two countries is relatively shallow and short, such an interconnection would still be an extremely expensive undertaking.52 2.2.2.2 Grid strength and responsiveness Grid planners do have control over other physical factors that affect grid flexibility, however. Grid strength, the ability to transport electricity from its point of generation to its point of demand, is positively correlated with grid flexibility. Strength can be limited by old, inefficient, or bottlenecked transmission and distribution networks. In addition, the number, location, and types of power plants all contribute to determining grid flexibility. Accounting for VG does not require increasing the installed capacity of a generation fleet, but it can require changing its makeup. Quick changes in VG output must be counterbalanced by quick increases or decreases in output from other generators that are explicitly designated as being responsible, at the direction of the grid operator, for responding to such changes. Some power-plant technologies are better suited to this task than others. Steam turbines, for example, take a long time to ramp up and down, and lose efficiency when they are not operating at their design load. Cycling places mechanical stress on these plants, potentially leading to higher maintenance needs and shorter lifetimes. Other plant technologies, such as oil or gas turbines or reciprocating engines, ramp up and down very quickly, and lose less efficiency when they are operating at partial loads. By these metrics, the Dominican Republic looks more attractive. The country’s reliance on fuel oil and diesel means that a very large share of its generation fleet is of the more flexible variety. Only the roughly

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15 percent of the nation’s electricity that is produced from coal represents inflexible baseload generation. The Dominican Republic’s hydropower, however, is not as useful as a balancing resource for VG as might be expected. Hydropower is often seen as the ideal complement to VG because facilities that store water behind dams are dispatchable, meaning that they can be turned on almost instantly. Hydropower generation in the Dominican Republic, however, is heavily dependent on the level of rainfall; and even then, there is a pecking order for use of that rainfall: personal consumption, irrigation, and then electricity generation. Any water that is stored in reservoirs is quickly used to spin turbines that generate electricity. As a result, these facilities (as currently operated) are not as useful for dealing with variability, in contrast with systems such as the Bonneville Power Administration in the U.S. Pacific Northwest that have routinely used hydroelectric plants to balance increasing amounts of wind generation. This could change, of course, if overall generation capacity is increased significantly, such as with the addition of new renewable sources.
Sidebar 1. The Potential for Integrating Wind and Solar into the Grid of Oahu, Hawaii
A recent study of the grid of Oahu, Hawaii, demonstrates the potential of even a small island grid to integrate wind and solar power without sacrificing stability. Oahu’s grid is even smaller than the Dominican Republic’s, with less than 1,800 MW of installed capacity and annual generation of around 8,000 GWh per year. The study examined the possibility of integrating up to 500 MW of wind and 100 MW of solar power into the grid, which would account for over 25 percent of the system’s electricity production. It found that up to 95 percent of the wind energy generated could be successfully delivered to the grid, which, along with the solar generation, would lower fuel consumption by 30 percent without sacrificing the reliability of the system. The study found that three relatively simple changes to the operations of the grid would allow Oahu to achieve these results. First, Oahu would need to use the latest wind-forecasting technology and commit its fast-start generating units ahead of time, reducing the need for regulation units to manage unexpected wind fluctuations. A simultaneous change would be an increase in the requirements for “up-reserve” (regulating units that run at a base level of generation that can be increased as the grid operator requires) to account for sub-hourly variation, since Oahu runs on hourly economic dispatch. These actions would both increase the amount of wind energy that can be accepted by the grid by 7 percent and lower the system’s fuel costs by 14 percent. The second step in the process would be to reduce the minimum stable operating level of the baseload facilities owned by the Oahu utility. Oahu is more reliant on coal than the Dominican Republic, and 95 percent of its electricity comes from relatively inflexible units. All baseload plants have a minimum level of production at which they can safely operate. Often at times of low electricity demand, wind energy cannot be accepted because conventional baseload facilities are already meeting load requirements at this minimum level. If these minima can be lowered, more wind energy could be accepted by the grid. Implementing such a strategy would necessitate having a “down-reserve” (units that operate on a base level of generation that can be decreased as the grid operator requires) as well, to ensure stability in the event that load unexpectedly drops. This would increase the amount of wind energy that can be accepted by the grid by 14 percent and lower the system’s fuel costs by 9 percent. According to the study, the third change that would ease wind and solar integration on Oahu would be to reduce the up-reserve requirement by taking advantage of fast-start generation units and other resources at the grid operator’s disposal. This would not affect the amount of wind energy accepted by the grid but would lower fuel costs slightly. These strategies raised the average heat rate of the fleet (the amount of primary energy required to produce a certain amount of electricity) because of the increased reliance on peaking units and reserve requirements, but fuel costs still fell by 30 percent overall. Operational complications remained, particularly dealing with sub-hourly variability, but the authors concluded that integration was possible without sacrificing stability.
Source: See Endnote 51.

2.2.2.3 Grid renovation The Dominican Republic does not currently have a strong grid, and this is one of the biggest barriers to VG development. The transmission grid is centered on a single line running from Santo Domingo to Santiago, with offshoots reaching other locations. In many cases, these offshoots cannot accept much additional capacity, as they are outdated or are already responsible for carrying close to their maximum amount of energy.

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The distribution network is similarly in need of improvement. A 2008 study of the Dominican Republic’s grid found that the grid could not accommodate more than 268 MW of wind generation and that it required strengthening, particularly in the area around Santo Domingo, to alleviate the deficit in reactive power that would result from the displacement of conventional generation.53 In the study’s more optimistic scenario, which included upgrades to existing infrastructure and the construction of new high-voltage transmission lines and substations, the grid could accommodate 415 MW of wind generation by 2013. Successful renovation of the grid must also overcome two institutional obstacles. First, it is the responsibility of CNE to develop a transmission system expansion plan; however, in practice, it is the state-owned transmission company, Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica Dominicana (ETED), that designs grid expansion every four years. As a second major obstacle, ETED lacks the financial resources to carry out such a plan, and current legislation does not allow for private sector investment to help achieve it. 2.2.2.4 Operations, markets, and forecasting Operational matters also influence a grid’s overall flexibility, not least because there are many situations where existing flexible generation cannot be accessed because of the grid’s institutional framework or scheduling rules. Each grid is governed by grid codes that define how and whether wind or solar devices respond to certain grid conditions, including voltage sags and over-generation. If grid codes are not designed to accommodate wind and solar PV, grid operators may, for example, curtail more renewable energy than necessary. The rate at which electricity markets operate also affects grid flexibility, with close-to-real time market clearing allowing for better response to unanticipated variability than hourly markets.54 Within a single energy market, a range of timeframes may exist: some generators provide constant, stable power and sign contracts far in advance because their maneuvering cost is too high to respond to price signals; others enter into new contracts (for a certain level of generation at a certain price) at the beginning of each market period; and still others respond to changes in load or supply within the market period as the grid operator requires. This last segment of the market, the ancillary services market, is typically the most expensive from the grid operator’s perspective, because it requires generators to ramp production up or down quickly. These generators therefore sacrifice efficiency for flexibility, and require a high price to make such an arrangement worthwhile. Historically, most energy markets have operated with an hour-long market period, so that those in that second category (intermediate and peaking generators) enter into new contracts with the operator each hour. This means that changes in load or supply within that hour must be balanced using regulation services. If this market period, providing economic dispatch, can be shortened to five or 15 minutes, as it has been in many parts of the United States and elsewhere, the market provides greater incentive for generation flexibility and there is less need to pay for regulation services.55 The reason for this is that the market clearing price will change more frequently, and the intermediate and peaking plants that can produce economically will then be more precisely fitted to the amount of energy needed to meet load over the market period. A study on the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) found that providing intra-hour response in this way—relying on the economic incentives of a sub-hourly market—has been shown to come at no added cost. Freeing up generators that sell into the regulation market from having to respond as much to load changes provides more flexibility that can be used to smooth out VG ramps.56 The quality of wind and solar forecasting affects the ease of grid integration as well. The more accurately that VG generators and the grid operator are able to predict wind and solar production, the less they will have to rely on the regulation market to account for unexpected changes. Improving forecasting can be as simple as improving the methodology or technology used, but there are also operational elements. Multiple studies of wind forecasting have shown that forecast error is reduced significantly when aggregated over a large geographic area, suggesting that it is better to forecast production from a VG fleet as a whole rather than from each facility independently.57 Forecasting error also decreases as it

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approaches real-time. Markets that operate with quicker economic dispatch are therefore better able to predict the amount of VG generation that they will have on hand during each market period. The Dominican Republic has definite room for improvement on these measures. The grid currently operates hourly, so converting to faster dispatch, especially with a generation fleet dominated by generating technologies that are well suited to functioning as intermediate or peaking plants, would have considerable benefits for VG integration. The discussion of grid flexibility is based on the assumption that the grid operator must deliver the amount of power needed to meet the load at all times. The need to quickly adjust the energy delivered both up and down to respond to changes in load or VG generation is grounded in this requirement. In the Dominican Republic, however, load shedding—temporarily suspending energy delivery to some customers—is used commonly to deal with generation shortages. If the Dominican Republic continues to rely on load shedding, this in essence makes the integration of VG easier, because it provides a solution to a situation where unexpected drops of generation cannot be quickly counterbalanced. If the Dominican Republic is committed to ending its reliance on load shedding, however, high penetrations of VG could make the task more difficult. Both the effect of load shedding on VG integration and the effect of VG integration on any attempts to end dependence on load shedding deserve further discussion. VG integration should be handled carefully to avoid any increases in the need for load shedding. Planned demand management for select customer classes, particularly large consumers, could help demand respond to VG supply in an orderly and pre-agreed way. 2.2.2.5 Recommendations All of this demonstrates that there are many things the Dominican Republic can do to ease the integration of VG into its grid. Upgrading and expanding its transmission and distribution networks, increasing the ramp rates of its conventional generation fleet, moving to a sub-hourly electricity market, and exploring interconnection with Puerto Rico would all positively affect grid flexibility, with improvements to grid infrastructure being the most pressing need. Any strategy to promote VG energy resources in the Dominican Republic should consider the following action steps: • A preliminary assessment to identify key areas for implementation of VG as well as barriers to the installation and use of these technologies. (The six-area analysis presented in this report can be considered a first step for wind technologies.) These studies may be developed within a framework that includes all activities of the project (objectives, schedule of activities, funding proposals, etc.). Estimates of the costs of network expansion for promoting wind power and other renewable resources. This requires drilling down by transmission subsystem to assess the conditions of access to the network of these projects and estimating in details the cost of developing the prioject independently. Collaboration among key domestic stakeholders and external advisors. Arguably, working with other government institutions (Dominican Corporation of State Electricity Companies (CDEEE), Electricity Superintendence (SIE), Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Tourism, etc.) and the many private entities related to electricity generation would provide important synergies to develop the project more effectively. In addition, collaboration with international institutions, such as Worldwatch and 3TIER, can help in defining the type of schema, tools, and financing mechanisms that are most appropriate for development of the project.

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3.
3.1

Job Creation Potential
Direct Jobs

The labor required for solar and wind capacity additions will create new job opportunities in the Dominican Republic. Renewable electricity jobs are generally divided into two categories: construction, installation, and manufacturing (CIM), and operations and maintenance (O&M). CIM jobs typically are concentrated in the first few years of setting up a renewable energy facility, whereas most O&M jobs exist for the lifespan of the installation. To estimate long-term job creation, CIM jobs can be averaged out over the expected lifetime of new projects, a calculation that is particularly useful for countrywide estimates where it can be assumed that new facility installations will be ongoing for years to come. In general, renewable power plants are more labor intensive than oil-fired power plants. A study of jobcreation potential in the global solar industry found that, in the short term, each new MW of PV capacity will create 20 manufacturing jobs, 30 installation jobs, and one maintenance job.58 Assuming a 25-year lifespan for PV installations, this results in 0.8 manufacturing jobs and 1.2 installation jobs annually per MW generated. A similar study of the wind industry estimates that each new MW of wind capacity will create 16 jobs in manufacturing and the supply of components; five jobs in wind farm development, installation, and indirect employment; and 0.33 jobs in O&M.59 Assuming a 25-year lifetime for wind installations, this results in 0.64 manufacturing jobs and 0.2 installation jobs annually per MW generated. These job-creation estimates are significantly higher than what could be expected from continued reliance on oil-fired generation. Natural gas plants, meanwhile, create only 0.03 annual CIM jobs and 0.1 O&M jobs per MW of capacity.60 In countries that increase their renewable energy capacities, the higher labor costs for new renewables plants can be offset in part by the savings gained from no longer having to pay for the costly fuel inputs that are required by fossil fuel power plants. Applying the global estimates of job creation from wind and solar to the Dominican Republic’s currently planned PV and wind energy capacity additions would result in the creation of 311 jobs from these projects. (See Table 3.) Further development of domestic renewable energy would spur additional job growth; however, using the 3TIER resource assessment provided in this report to estimate potential solar PV jobs is problematic. This is because the scale of solar investment depends much more on the investment environment and on the availability of financing than on the solar resource itself.
Table 3. Job Creation Estimates for Planned Solar PV and Wind Capacity in the Dominican Republic Planned Installation Solar PV GEDER Monteplata plant Wind Los Cocos and Quilvio Cabrera wind farms* Los Cocos expansion Juancho wind farm Matafongo wind farm El Guanillo wind farm Total
*

Capacity

Manufacturing Jobs 24 21 16 32 19 32 144

Installation Jobs 36 7 5 10 6 10 74

O&M Jobs 30 11 8 17 10 17 93

Total Jobs 90 39 29 59 35 59 311

30 MW 33 MW 25 MW 50 MW 30 MW 50 MW 218 MW

The Quilvio Cabrera and Los Cocos wind farms comprise 8.5 MW and 24.5 MW, respectively

For reference, as of 2007 solar PV had created 35,000 direct and indirect jobs in Germany, a country that has invested heavily in solar energy despite its much less optimal solar resources than the Dominican Republic.61 In Bangladesh, a small developing country with limited financial resources, the not-for-profit company Grameen Shakti has installed more than 100,000 solar home systems since 1996 and aims to reach 1 million households by 2015. So far, the program has employed 660 women for installing,

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repairing and maintaining the PV systems, and has trained over 600 local youths as certified technicians. Grameen Shakti aims to create 100,000 jobs through renewable energy and related businesses.62 Estimating the job-creation potential of wind capacity additions is more straightforward because of the larger (utility) scale of most wind energy projects. The 3TIER assessment identifies 78 grid points in Pedernales, Baní, and Montecristi that have capacity factors of more than 30 percent and assumes that each of these points can accommodate 20 wind turbines of 3 MW each. By developing these three sites alone, the Dominican Republic could thus add an additional 4,680 MW of wind capacity. Applying the job creation figures from earlier, this would result in an additional 3,000 manufacturing jobs, 1,000 installation jobs, and 1,500 O&M jobs over the lifetime of the wind facilities—or 5,500 jobs total.

3.2

Indirect and Induced Jobs

In addition to the direct jobs in CIM and O&M, renewable energy facilities create indirect and induced employment. Indirect jobs are positions created throughout the supply chain based on the increased demand for materials and components required for renewable energy equipment. Induced jobs are the jobs created as the salaries earned in the direct and indirect jobs in the renewables value chains are then spent on a range of goods and services in the wider economy. The increased spending from the renewables jobs creates and supports induced jobs. In addition, reliable and affordable access to energy allows for investments in new local businesses, which bring additional revenue, incomes, and jobs.

3.3

Capacity Building and Employment

Renewable energy development offers the Dominican Republic promising employment opportunities and an alternative to transferring its wealth out of the country to pay for fossil fuel imports. It is important to note, however, that most of the initial local jobs from renewables will occur in installation and O&M, since these positions are located in-country; by contrast, most manufacturing and indirect jobs will be concentrated in the countries that manufacture the renewables equipment and materials, most of which are imported. To capture the full in-country employment opportunities from renewable energy, the Dominican Republic needs to invest in capacity building, including expanding its domestic manufacturing base to allow for production of renewable energy equipment and training a skilled labor force to install, operate, and maintain the new facilities.

4.

Summary

Enormous opportunities exist in the Dominican Republic for both wind and solar development based on the rapidly falling costs of these technologies and on incentives provided by the government (see chapter IV). Distributed generation (DG) is particularly attractive because of the high losses in the existing transmission and distribution system and because many residential and light-commercial customers already have inverters and batteries for backup power. Although the Dominican Republic, as a relatively small and isolated country, faces a particular challenge in integrating variable generation (VG) into its grid, its flexible generation fleet and superior wind and solar resources still make it an attractive location for development. Moreover, the many positive externalities associated with renewable generation—including reduced fossil fuel dependency, improved air quality, and job creation—make development even more beneficial. Both distributed and centralized wind and solar generation will pose technical challenges, however, that will need to be addressed for these initial projects to lead to significantly higher renewables penetration. Handling DG should be considered when conducting maintenance and performing upgrades to distribution networks, and improving the reach and capacity of the transmission grid should be a top priority to allow for the acceptance of greater amounts of VG. The effect of VG on the need for load shedding should also be carefully considered. With improvements to grid infrastructure, however, the amount of flexible generation available from the Dominican Republic’s conventional generation fleet suggests that a substantial amount of VG can be successfully integrated into the national grid.

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IV. HARNESSING RENEWABLE RESOURCES IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Worldwide, renewable energy has consistently been a policy-driven process. The design of supportive policies, as well as their effective implementation, has been key in countries that were successful in developing a favorable investment climate for renewables. International experience suggests that elements that are particularly important for the advancement of renewable energy are the development of a long-term vision, the creation of concrete support policies and measures, and an effective administrative structure. This chapter examines the Dominican Republic’s policies to accelerate renewable energy production. It focuses specifically on the role of the government and public institutions in encouraging the deployment of wind and solar technologies. The chapter’s assessment of the domestic policy arena is based on semistructured interviews with key representatives from government agencies, the private sector, and international organizations, as well as on supplemental information from official government and donor agency reports, academic reports, and media materials. Each subsection includes suggestions for reform as well as alternative solutions.

1.

A Long-term Vision for the Promotion of Renewables

A critical first step toward creating a comprehensive energy policy is developing a long-term vision that can guide political action well into the future. This vision serves as a reference point and is designed to commit all government branches as well as key non-governmental stakeholders to a joint agenda of change, thus providing the impetus for the development and implementation of concrete, consistent policies. A comprehensive vision for the energy sector outlines the overall goals and targets. It needs to be put in writing, and to be easily accessible for any interested party. The vision is likely to be revised over time to integrate emerging needs and opportunities as well as lessons learned.

1.1

“Loud and Long” Climate and Energy Targets

A long-term vision sets the course so that policies can outlast any changes in political leadership. Although policies are critical to building clean energy markets, experience shows that it is difficult to achieve the perfect policy design from the start.63 It is therefore important to leave room for policy improvements and for fine-tuning details. Meanwhile, the overarching vision and goals should remain consistent to serve as a benchmark for current and future governments. In 2004, experienced renewable energy financiers who were invited to provide policy input to the Ministerial-level International Conference on Renewable Energy in Bonn, Germany, concluded that to be effective, policy needed to be “Loud, Long, and Legal.”64 In other words, it had to be ambitious enough to make a real difference in the final result (Loud), it had to be perceived as sustained for a duration that reflects the financing period of projects (Long), and it had to be anchored in a legally established regulatory environment (Legal). These policy characteristics serve to build confidence among all key parties that political regulations and market incentives will be stable and provide the basis for long-term, capital-intensive investments. The Dominican Republic has a comprehensive body of institutions, targets, and laws related to renewable energy. Unlike most nations, the country has recognized the importance of a clean energy supply in its Constitution. Article 67 of the Constitution of the Dominican Republic elevates clean energy development to a high-profile national goal, stating that, “The State shall promote in the public and the private sector the use of clean alternative technologies to preserve the environment.”65 The Dominican Republic also has made international commitments to low-carbon development, including as a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC. Whereas many developing countries have focused on the adaption side of the climate challenge, the Dominican Republic, in its Second National

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Communication to the UNFCCC, details a climate mitigation strategy that includes renewable energy generation and energy efficiency measures.66 At the UNFCCC COP in Cancún, Mexico, in December 2010, Vice President Rafael Alburquerque de Castro highlighted Dominican environmental policies and mitigation efforts while underscoring the need for strong international support for continuing and accelerating such policies.67 Small-island developing states (SIDS), including the Dominican Republic, have played a proactive role as a group in UN climate negotiations as well, particularly through the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). At the 2009 UNFCCC summit in Copenhagen, the Dominican Republic participated in creating the SIDS DOCK, which commits AOSIS countries to work together to develop renewable energy and energy efficiency options and to seek funding from international carbon markets to implement their lowcarbon energy strategies. More recently, the Dominican government announced that it is committed to reducing its absolute emissions of greenhouse gases by 50 percent over 2010 levels by 2030, a share that is comparable to European Union targets and exceptional in the developing world, resembling Costa Rica’s ambitious climate neutrality goal by 2021 and the recently-announced climate neutrality goal of Niue, a small island country in the South Pacific Ocean.68 A recent version of the Dominican national development plan even aims at reaching this goal while at the same time doubling the country’s GDP. In 2007, the country’s carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion alone totaled 19.3 million tons, up from 17.6 million tons in 2000, making the energy sector a core sector for implementing mitigation strategies.69 (See Table 4.)
Table 4. The Dominican Republic’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2000 and 2007 Emissions Source Energy sector Electricity production Total CO2 emissions
Source: See Endnote 69.

2000 17.6 n/a 18.4

2007
million tons of CO2

19.3 9.4 20.7

Because of the high cost that the country is paying for the fossil fuel imports, one can argue that fossil fuels need to be phased out over time to free up the resources that will be necessary to adapt to the costly impacts of climate change. From this perspective, mitigating fossil fuel emissions becomes part of the adaptation agenda. The Dominican Republic’s targets for renewable energy development are no less ambitious. Law 57-07, on Renewable Sources of Energy Incentives and Its Special Regimes, sets a target for a 25 percent share of renewable energy in the country’s final energy consumption by 2025.70 Again, this target is comparable to the European Union’s “20 by 2020” objective, which calls for a 20 percent share of renewables in final energy consumption by 2020. However, the question of the effective implementation of these targets remains.

1.2

The Energy Regulatory Framework and Governance of the Sector

The aforementioned targets are in the process of being anchored in the Dominican Republic’s National Energy Plan (PEN), which is currently being updated. The previous PEN of 2004 provides a detailed overview of the country’s energy sector and electricity market, setting the baseline for further reforms. It describes the development status of both hydrocarbon and renewable energy sources and includes projections for future energy demand as well as alternative supply options. The PEN is designed to contribute to the country’s sustainable development. Specifically, it aims to provide the right conditions for key actors in the energy sector to ensure a sufficient and secure energy supply at low cost and with minimal environmental impact. It is structured around four main energy policy tasks: the consolidation of governmental functions in designing energy policy and regulating the energy system; the development of domestic energy resources; the supply of safe, low-cost, and high-quality energy; and greater freedom of choice for energy consumers.71

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The PEN acknowledges a potential role for renewables in the country’s future and demands that “alternate sources must be considered.” However, it also acknowledges that: “there are still high capital costs compared to conventional sources, and [renewable energy] development requires special incentives, permanent funding sources and, above all, a specific law that articulates the efforts of all agents that may contribute to its development.”72 The PEN laid the groundwork for, and encouraged the drafting of, Law 57-07, and is currently being revised to reflect the Law’s renewable energy targets and incentives. CNE is leading the revision process, which will be subject to review from various stakeholders, including CDEEE. Like the 2004 version, the new PEN is being drafted by Working Groups on the electrical sector, hydrocarbons, and renewable energy. The final document will be integrated into the National Development Strategy, a 20-year national public policy roadmap. The Strategy was drafted recently by the Ministry of Economics, Planning, and Development, following Article 241 of the Constitution, and is now being examined in a bicameral commission in the Dominican Congress.* The Dominican Republic also has specialized institutions to promote renewable energy. The country’s energy sector is administered by an amalgam of laws, agencies, and companies.73 (See Figure 20.) Additional players in the climate policy arena include the National Council for Climate Change and Clean Development Mechanism, headed by top political personnel including a Secretary of State.74
Figure 20. Overview of Electricity Sector Laws and Institutions

The National Development Strategy is a 20-year national public policy roadmap, and the Commission will convene a seminar at the National Congress “with deputies, senators and technicians who can explain the importance of this project and the details, and review the proposal point by point to yield a report” to be submitted to both houses. Public hearings on the Strategy began in El Caribe on July 21, 2011.

*

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2.

Effective Political and Financial Support Mechanisms

Fostered by strong political will and compelling technical and scientific evidence of the country’s renewable energy potential, the Dominican Republic has published a large set of written laws to incentivize renewables. Law 57-07, with its appending regulations, sets a solid legal foundation for renewable energy development and, in the words of its prologue, “opens the door” to sustained commercial financing for the sector through financial incentives such as a feed-in tariff, tax exemptions, and a renewable energy fund. The law has helped increase investor confidence and creates a favorable environment for investment planning. Yet some major barriers remain, hindering sustained growth in the renewable energy sector. The first is the length and unpredictability of administrative procedures to obtain a concession and to benefit from the tax credits and tax exemptions laid out in Law 57-07. Business stakeholders have noted, however, that the process has improved considerably in recent years. A second major barrier is uncertainty regarding implementation of the feed-in tariff laid out in Law 57-07 and its regulation, particularly for solar development. Other barriers include the lack of capital availability; the absence of long-term, concessional commercial loans; the difficulty in accessing international financing for renewable energy and energy efficiency; and a lack of knowledge and awareness of financing opportunities and conditions of international climate finance institutions. Some of these barriers could be effectively addressed simply through better execution of the existing laws and regulations. As described below, Law 57-07, for example, has to-date been implemented only partially. Complete implementation is thus the most immediate and urgent step for the Dominican Republic government to take. To harvest the country’s full renewable energy potential, the government should accompany this implementation with effective additional international support.

2.1

Investment-based Incentives: Tax Exemptions

Lowering the import taxes for renewable energy technologies is a necessary first step when introducing renewables into a nascent market. Law 57-07 outlines a broad range of tax incentives, including an import tax exemption, to support technologies related to wind (less than 50 MW), small hydro (less than 5 MW), solar PV, solar thermal, biomass cogeneration (less than 80 MW), biomass, biofuels, and ocean energy systems.75 (See Table 5.) A recent rapid increase in both applications submitted and exemptions already granted shows that the Dominican Republic’s renewable energy market is reacting positively to these incentives. Data for the past four years indicate strong growth in project applications, including a more-than quintupling—from 43 to 231—between 2009 and 2010 alone.76 (See Table 6.) Small-scale self-generation projects constituted 83 percent of the applications for tax exemption, but they accounted for only 5 percent of the total importtax exemptions granted, showing a predominance of small-scale projects. Ninety-five percent of the total value of import-tax exemptions granted in 2010 was destined for equipment for utility-scale wind parks. The trend shows an increase in the import of equipment for residential and commercial projects, usually solar systems and small wind systems, but also of bigger industrial and utility-scale projects such as the 33.5 MW wind park in Los Cocos and Quilvio Cabrera, which is scheduled to be operational in mid-October 2011. Nevertheless, some of the companies that have gone through the import-tax exemption process for wind technologies have expressed concern that the procedure still lacks predictability and can be lengthy. The process could be further improved by better communicating the criteria by which exemptions are considered. Both predictability and transparency are critical for facilitating the market entry of more companies.

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Table 5. Tax Incentives to Support Renewable Energy in the Dominican Republic Type of Incentive Import tax Tax on the Transfer of Industrialized Goods and Services (ITBIS) Income tax Details 100% tax exemption on the import of equipment and machinery necessary for the production of renewable energy, as well as transformation equipment, transmission, and interconnection of electricity to the grid. 100% exemption on the ITBIS for projects based on renewable energy, a value-added tax applicable to the transfer and importation of most goods, and to most services (the usual rate is 16%). Generators are exempted from the tax derived from income from the generation and sale of electricity from renewable sources. Installers are exempted from the tax on income derived from installation of equipment with a minimum of 35% of the value to be produced in the Dominican Republic. The exemption applies for 10 years, up to 2020. Payment of interest rate for external financing for renewable energy projects is limited to 5%. An exemption on the income of the owner of renewable energy technology equipment for up to 75% of the equipment’s costs. Grants and very concessional loans to finance up to 75% of the cost of the equipment for small-scale installations (< 500 kW) developed by communities or social organizations. Mandates a price to be paid for power produced from renewable energy resources. The Dominican feed-in tariff adds a premium payment to the wholesale electricity price for a period of 10 years, up to 2018. Wind and solar small residential self-producers with a capacity of no more than 25 kW, and commercial self-producers with a capacity of no more than 1 MW, can deduct their energy outflows from metered energy inflows.

Low interest rate on external financing Tax credit for selfgenerators Low interest loans for community projects Feed-in tariff Net metering (not included in 57-07, August 2011)
Source: See Endnote 75.

Table 6. Applications for Tax Exemptions to CNE Under Law 57-07
2008
Number of applications Amount (million RD$) Number of apps.

2009
Amount (mill. RD$) Number of apps.

2010
Amount (mill. RD$)

Jan-March 2011
Number of apps. Amount (mill. RD$)

Import tax exemption --of which self generators --of which concessions for wind projects VAT (ITBIS) tax exemption* Revenue tax Credit

49

5,052,829

37

11.08

82 68 14

2.98 14.29 283.73

38

22.89

0 3 52

0. 4.85 9.90

0 6 43

0 1.88 12.96

26 41 231

23.89 78.56 400.46

1 1 40

1.77 1.63 26.29

Total Source: See Endnote 76.

2.2

Generation-based Incentives: The Feed-in Tariff

Law 57-07 establishes a 10-year feed-in tariff (FiT) for grid-connected renewable energy installations, which adds a premium payment to the wholesale electricity price for both utilities and self-generators. Under the Law’s regulatory decree, the payment is to increase by 4 percent in 2009 and 2010 and then adjust based on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) through 2018. From 2018 to 2027, the rate will adjust according to the U.S. CPI minus one percentage point. Because these rates are on the higher end of international benchmarks (see Table 7 for solar energy), the release of the Dominican Republic’s FiT rate regulation has attracted many investors and increased the visibility of the country as a favorable investment environment.77 In addition to tax exemptions, the FiT

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is another key reason why applications for wind energy concessions boomed following the publication of Law 57-07.78 Yet at the time of this writing, not a single FiT payment had been carried out. Both the grid operator (CDEEE) and the distribution companies contend that the rate for solar power generation (at 53–60 cents per kWh) is too high. Unlike in many countries, distribution companies in the Dominican Republic have only limited opportunity to pass the price premium on to consumers. This is because only 38 percent of the country’s energy consumers are “typical” payers; the remaining 62 percent either are heavily subsidized by the government or use electricity without paying for it.79
Table 7. An International Comparison of Feed-in Tariffs for Solar Energy Country Dominican Republic Germany Ground Mount Rooftop Ground Mount Rooftop Ground Mount Rooftop Island Standalone Rooftop Ground Mount System Type Kilowatts > 25 < 25 < 30 < 30 < 20 > 20 > 20–100 > 20–100 < 100 > 10–50 < 10 > 10–250 10–1,000 Rate (U.S. dollars) 0.53 0.60 0.40 0.56 0.46 0.49 0.45 0.49 0.49 0.63 0.50 0.80 0.71 0.44

Spain Italy Greece United Kingdom U.S. Ontario (Ontario Power Authority)

Note: Rates are provided for 2011 (Jan–June), except for data for the Dominican Republic, which is for 2008. Source: See Endnote 77.

The uncertainty surrounding implementation of the feed-in tariff under Law 57-07 is a major hurdle for further development of renewable energy (particularly solar) in the Dominican Republic. CNE and CDEEE are engaged in ongoing negotiations to redefine the FiT rate.

2.3

Net Metering

A very recent and important sign of progress in the sometimes difficult negotiations between CNE and CDEEE is jointly drafted legislation on net metering, an important addition to the FiT, published on June 29, 2011.80 The legislation applies to small residential self-producers of wind or solar power with a capacity of no more than 25 kW, and to commercial self-producers with a capacity of no more than 1 MW. Eligible producers receive credits for grid electricity equal to the excess power that they send back to the grid. Figure 21 outlines the process for applying for the net metering program.81 The rate of net metering will be based on the BTS1 level tariff that is in place in December of each year. The credit will cover 75 percent of the total energy production eligible for compensation, with the distribution company using the remaining 25 percent to promote renewable energy. At the operational level, net metering is less complicated than a feed-in tariff because it does not require installation of a second meter and additional wiring. Having a functional net metering policy in place by the end of 2011 will provide self-producers with a clear incentive to invest in renewable energy.

2.4

Domestic Public Support

In countries where the capital market is not ready to finance renewable energy projects adequately because of a structural lack of capital, awareness, and experience, creating a specialized financial institution is a good way to leverage the private capital necessary for renewable energy, even when short-term gains are not evident.82 As early as November 2000, the Dominican Republic established the overall principles of such a fund in its Law 112-00 (the Law on Hydrocarbons). Law 112-00 outlines the

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creation of “a special fund from the tax differential on fossil fuels in order to finance projects of great national interest for the promotion of alternative, renewable or clean energy and energy savings.” However, a survey of the existing literature, as well as interviews with government officials, revealed that actual implementation of the fund has not taken place. The final evaluation report of a project by Germany’s Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ, formerly GTZ) supporting the development of a policy and legislative framework for renewable energy in the Dominican Republic states that difficulties arose in 2007 when the Dominican Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIC) and CNE negotiated the implementation agreement for management of the fund.83 The two parties were not able to agree on a clear division of responsibilities—reinforced in part by the fact that CNE was at that time a relatively new agency in its building phase—and did not agree on the choice of the institution in charge of managing the fund.
Figure 21. Process for Applying for the Net Metering Program

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Were it to exist, the Fund would pay for the FiT premium and support renewable energy development in low-income areas through a capital subsidy covering up to 75 percent of the cost of work and installation of small-scale renewable energy projects, as stipulated in Law 57-07.84 (See Table 8.) Other countries have successfully developed national funding institutions to foster renewable energy development. The design of these funds varies among countries by their financial sources, their governance, and the types of financial vehicles that they have to offer. Renewable energy funds in developing countries often draw on a mix of domestic and international finance: for example, India’s IREDA was created with a seminal grant from the Global Environmental Facility and continues to receive funding from the World Bank today. In the case of the Dominican Republic, the government could consider diversifying the source of revenues for its domestic fund. Technical assistance from international donors could support government establishment of the fund, and once set up, it could become a major domestic instrument to access international climate finance for renewable energy and mitigation technologies.
Table 8. Calculation of a Fossil Fuel Levy at Various Percentages for the Dominican Renewably Energy Fund 2005 Yearly Imports (million barrels) Daily imports (barrels/day) Average price per barrel Total Annual Imports (millions) 5% Levy 4% Levy 3% Levy 2% Levy 1% Levy
Source: See Endnote 84.

2006 46.7 127,984 $59.68 $2,788

2007 49.6 135,977 $64.95 $3,224

2008 48.4 132,724 $87.56 $4,242

2009 48.0 131,485 $55.03 $2,641

2010 51.7 141,506 $66.36 $3,427

46.6 127,530 $52.66 $2,451

Million U.S. dollars 122.6 98.0 73.5 49.0 24.5 139.4 111.5 83.6 55.8 27.9 161.2 128.9 $96.7 $64.5 32.2 212.1 169.7 127.3 84.8 42.4 132.1 105.6 79.2 52.8 26.4 171.4 137.1 102.8 68.5 34.3

2.5

International Funding

The Dominican Republic has signed and ratified the leading international climate agreement, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. As a developing country (a Non-Annex I Party), it is eligible for international climate finance for renewable energy and energy efficiency through the UNFCCC’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).85 Administrative structures for CDM projects are already in place in the Dominican Republic. The Office of Climate Change has commissioned several studies to assess the potential for CDM projects in the country, and it set up a Designated National Authority (DNA) for CDM projects in 2004. A 2010 study by the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) examines the potential for CDM projects in the Dominican Republic and highlights the strong potential of the country’s wind sector.86 One wind power CDM project has already been approved, which creates a precedent for additional wind projects and can expedite future applications. To date, however, only two projects are registered under the CDM mechanism: a biogas plant funded by France, and a wind farm in El Guanillo funded by Spain.87 (See Table 9.) The UNFCCC also makes funding available through its financial mechanism, the Global Environmental Facility (GEF). The Dominican Ministry of the Environment coordinates international financing and serves as the political focal point for GEF projects. Renewable energy projects are jointly managed by the Ministry of the Environment and CNE. Currently, there are no active GEF projects in the Dominican

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Republic for renewable energy technologies. Difficulty accessing international climate finance is a recurring concern mentioned by many stakeholders in the country. The main hurdles are lack of information and knowledge about the rapidly evolving funding landscape, the international climate finance architecture, the fund eligibility criteria, the financing instruments, and the project cycles. As a World Bank-classified “middle-income” country, the Dominican Republic is not eligible for long-term funding in the form of concessional loans and grants from the Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) arm.88 Most of the country’s World Bank funding comes from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Finance Cooperation (IFC). Energyrelated activities under the World Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for the Dominican Republic fall under Strategic Objective II, to “promote competitiveness in a sustainable and resilient economic environment,” which focuses on sectoral reform rather than mitigation technologies.
Table 9. Overview of Registered CDM Projects in the Dominican Republic Date Name Contributing Parties France Spain Verification Est. Emission Reductions
(metric tons of CO2 equivalent/year)

Project No.

09 Apr 2010 20 Oct 2006

Bionersis project on La Duquesa landfill El Guanillo wind farm

AMS-I.D. ver. 13 ACM0002 ver. 6

359,810 123,916

2595 0175

Source: See Endnote 87.

Through its “Public Finance and Social Sectors Development Policy Loan,” the World Bank continues to prioritize energy sector reform in the Dominican Republic into the next funding period, placing an emphasis on reducing the cost gap between retail energy prices and the cost of service.89 The CAS also mentions a $120 million loan package over 2010–13 from the IDB, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the World Bank to help improve energy distribution in the country. In contrast, the World Bank’s IFC includes mitigation actions and support for energy efficiency and renewable energy in its CAS activities. The IFC is also active in strengthening financial intermediaries such as Banco Hipotecario Dominicano (BHD) to promote renewable energy financing. In May 2011, the European Investment Bank (EIB) announced a project to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) that invest in clean energy and to strengthen the BHD’s lending capacity for renewable energy. The EIB will provide 80 million Euros in local currency for lending through three credit lines. A scoping of the international funds that finance renewable energy and energy efficiency can help policymakers in the Dominican Republic better understand the variety of international financing tools and institutions available. The Worldwatch Institute is currently undertaking such an assessment and will make the results available to the Dominican government. Training on international climate finance for government planners, project developers, and domestic financial institutions would help match available international funds with domestic demand.

2.6

Building Capacity in the Banking Sector

In the long term, the private sector, backed by commercial banks, will need to be the main source of renewable energy finance. However, business developers and financiers in the Dominican Republic face a variety of challenges, including a lack of availability of capital to invest in renewable energy sources as well as a lack of availability of borrowing (soft loans, credit, grants, tied and untied loans) and guarantee instruments for renewables.90 The Dominican banking sector still lacks the awareness and preparation required to finance renewable energy. Currently, only one of the five major domestic commercial banks, Bank BHD, provides a credit line for clean energy. Dominican banks are facing significant difficulties, and the longest repayment period that they are able to offer is 5–7 years, which is short in comparison to the repayment period of renewable energy technologies, which internationally spans 10–20 years.91

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The lack of an appropriate public or private guarantee mechanism (allowing banks to offload some of the risk to the government or another organization), as well as a high rate of loan-loss provision for banks, is another barrier for the banking sector. The loan-loss provision, determined by the Dominican Banks Superintendence, requires banks to set aside a high allowance in case of customer default. In the absence of a developed domestic market for wind and solar technologies, banks are wary of using the equipment as collateral.92 The IFC and BHD are currently developing a new credit line for “clean” products, including renewable energy. The credit line would offer low-interest (around 5.5 percent) medium-term loans (repayment within five years with a one-year grace period) for small to medium-sized project developers, covering up to 70–80 percent of the project’s investment costs. BHD is responsible for most aspects of the lending process, including marketing, appraisal, and credit approval. BHD also will provide technical expertise (resource assessment, feasibility studies, etc.) and business assistance to developers through the project preparation process. BHD has started lending to fuel-switching projects, but not yet to renewable energy. The IFC/BHD credit line helps build the BHD’s experience in financing renewable energy and effectively addresses the main barriers that private investors and commercial financiers face in funding renewable energy projects. We recommend that the IFC/BHC experience be used for new joint initiatives between international finance corporations and domestic commercial banks.
Summary of Major Barriers for Renewable Energy Financing in the Dominican Republic Market barriers • Price distortion from existing subsidies and unequal tax burdens • Higher perceived and real investment risk due to the lack of experience of financial institutions with new and quickly evolving technologies • High transaction costs in small markets • Unavailability of long-term financing for projects • Lack of adequate risk-compensation instruments Additional barriers for banking sector • Lack of available funds in local currency • High provision rate for banks • Low quality of projects presented for funding Additional barriers for private investors and developers • Lack of sectoral know-how and experience in developing clean energy projects • Low level of own funds for investment cost contribution • Lack of credit records

3.
3.1

Administrative and Organizational Effectiveness
Integrated Policy Goals and Mainstreamed Policies

Integrating different development goals and mainstreaming energy, economic, environmental, and social issues when designing and implementing energy policy is a crucial predecessor of far-reaching success. This requires the participation of all government departments. For example, the data on applications submitted for tax exemption, as provided in Table 6, show only projects submitted to CNE under Law 5707. These data provide only a partial snapshot of state of the renewable energy market in the Dominican Republic, since other ministries are in charge of the broader tax exemption regime, which also applies to renewable energy. Complete data on renewable energy investment activities, a key component for informed governmental planning, are hard to come by because of the lack of inter-agency coordination. A clear system for renewable energy coordination with other government departments as well as an interministerial dialogue would greatly promote understanding of the deep implications of a transition to a renewable energy system. Sustainable energy development, after all, has profound implications for

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transportation, health, infrastructure, manufacturing, labor, trade, education, agriculture, and land use policy, as well as foreign diplomacy, to just name a few. The National Council for Climate Change and Clean Development Mechanism (CNCCMDL) was created in September 2008 by presidential decree 601-08. It uses existing structures already engaged in the area of climate change as the steering committee for the office and establishes local coordination and institutional consensus-building with stakeholders in the government, private sector, and civil society.93 (See Figure 22.) The CNE is also responsible for coordinating the various actors in the energy sector.
Figure 22. Organizational Structure of the National Council for Climate Change and Clean Development Mechanism

The National Council could be extended to include renewable energy promotion, or serve as an example for how a cross-sectoral body can be successfully set up. A Renewable Energy Council would need to involve representatives from a wide range of departments currently involved with renewable energy, including the ministries of agriculture, health, and tourism.94 (See Table 10.)
Table 10. Renewable Energy Competences Among Governmental Institutions Area Energy policies and programs Electricity generation and supply policies and programs Renewable energy development policies and programs (in relation to Law 57-07) Power Purchasing Agreement Procurement of agricultural biomass for energy use Procurement of other biomass for energy use Rural Electrification Wind power development (depending on location) Hydropower development
Source: See Endnote 94.

Institution CNE SENI, EDE, CDEEE SENI, EDE, CDEEE EDE Ministry of Agriculture SEMARENA Ministry of Public Health and Social Affairs Ministry of Tourism, SEMARENA SEMARENA, Ministry of Agriculture, EDEHID, etc.

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3.2

Stakeholder Participation

Policies are more successful when they are well supported by key political constituencies. As critical stakeholders in energy policy outcomes, the private sector, experts, and civil society need to be closely involved in developing energy policy.95 Involving a range of stakeholders during the policymaking process fosters engagement and buy-in to the policies. Consultation processes with these stakeholders help ensure that policies are politically feasible, follow an appropriate time horizon, recognize costs, complement other political priorities, create space for development needs, and integrate environmental and social aspects for all members of society. On a highly technical subject like electricity, policymakers may be reluctant to open the debate to nonexperts. Official decision processes are often slow enough without adding the complications of public participation. However, research shows that successful social and environmental outcomes of power sector development are more likely if policies and regulations are open to public debate and scrutiny. For example, a review of 239 cases of public participation in environmental decision-making in the United States shows that in a significant number of cases, decisions were substantively improved through this involvement.96 Another study on the participation of civil society in electricity-sector governance in India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand concludes that, “improved governance can open the door to more creative solutions to [the challenges of providing access to reliable and affordable electricity], better systems of implementation, and stronger mechanisms of accountability.”97 The Dominican Republic’s upcoming Climate Change Development Plan will be reviewed by “relevant stakeholders” whose input will be integrated during the review of the final plan document. The number of stakeholders involved and their actual participation is not yet determined.98 Still, this openness is the appropriate way forward.

3.3

Monitoring, Reporting, and Evaluation of Policy Implementation

Setting up a vision and publishing domestic targets is not enough to ensure that a specific policy goal will be achieved. It is important to have metrics in place to measure progress toward achieving the goal. International measurement standards and practices such as the Greenhouse Gas Protocol and ISO Standards for measuring carbon emissions can guide policymakers in building in-country accounting methodologies and systems to track domestic implementation of policies.99 These functions are attributed to the CNCCMDL in Article 3 of Decree 601-08. The Dominican Republic does not currently have a systematic and integrated system for monitoring and verifying its progress in reaching the renewable energy targets expressed in Law 57-07. It also lacks a systematic process for reviewing renewable energy development, at least in practice. In theory, the PEN is supposed to have been reviewed and adjusted annually since 2007, but this has not yet happened. CNE keeps records of the concessions granted under Law 57-07, but this system can be improved and linked to data from other relevant ministries. Building a common database between the CNCCMDL, the GEF Focal point, and CNE would ensure a better harmonization of data. Civil society groups should perform independent monitoring of implementation measures and ensure transparency in communicating the results.100 International climate finance could support efforts to build this national measuring system.

3.4

A “One-Stop” Shop for Renewables Investors

Law 57-07 provides incentives to two major categories of renewable energy producers: self-producers, and large-scale producers. The latter must be granted a concession to be eligible to receive incentives. Obtaining concessions for renewable energy development in the Dominican Republic requires investors to go through a complex process, involving several governmental institutions, the obtaining of an environmental certification, and the undertaking of thorough technical and financial assessments.101 (See Figure 23.) Adding to the bureaucratic confusion, different laws, including 340-06, 57-07, 125-01, and 6400, cover different aspects of the process needed to obtain renewable energy concessions.

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For example, it took the company EGE-Haina nearly nine years to develop the Juancho-Los Cocos wind park. Another interviewee reported that he has been trying to develop a project since 1999 and has not yet obtained all permissions: "We started in 1999, and in 2004 we had all the permits but then came the law on renewable energy, in 2007, and we had to start everything from scratch again."102
Figure 23. Administrative Procedure to Obtain a Renewable Energy Concession

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Creating a “Ventanilla Unica” or single administrative window, within the government for renewable energy investors could help expedite and simplify procedures significantly. Such a single window for investment and exports was designed in 1998 and established in 2005 in the Ministry of Foreign Investment. The SIVUCEX, as this “one-stop” shop is called, aims to streamline export formalities among the public institutions and to reduce the length of administrative procedures, but it is not directly related to renewable energy. A partnership between CNE and the Ministry of the Environment could serve as an inter-ministerial coordinating entity to help streamline application procedures for obtaining concessions and financial incentives, as well as to mitigate the complexity of bureaucratic procedures, which are still a major barrier for investors. To facilitate the application process, information documents that map out the administrative steps could be assembled, and a handbook for all investor questions related to concessions could serve as a centralized resource. Setting up a hotline or information service is also useful for applicants. We suggest that the government create a “one-stop” shop for processing all required permits to be eligible for a concession and financial incentives under Law 57-07. According to a countrywide assessment, CNE approved more than 33 concessions in 2009, under which more than 1,905 MW of wind power should be installed.103 However, a Worldwatch review of the latest CNE data shows that only a few of these concessions have led to actual project construction. Government officials have expressed concern that concessions were granted to projects that were subsequently unable to find financing. A thorough review of a project’s bankability and of the availability of funds committed could be added to the requirements to strengthen the project development process. Inexperienced project developers often lack the skills to develop renewable energy projects, which bogs down the overall bureaucracy enormously. In addition to performing a comprehensive analysis of a project’s financial viability when granting the concession, the concessionary body could also set up a service to match project financial needs with available domestic public financing or international climate finance. Measuring, reporting, and verification are not only important for policies at the national level. Stronger verification of project progress is also needed at the project level, after concessions have been granted. Currently, CNE performs this task with a small team of technicians. There is currently no systematic reporting process for project progress.

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V.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENERGY OUTLOOK

The Dominican Republic has made significant progress in promoting renewable energy by establishing a strong long-term vision and commitment to clean energy development and by putting policies in place to spur investment. These efforts have been successful in increasing the number of renewable energy projects under way as well as concessions for future planned projects. The upcoming presidential elections have further elevated attention to issues of energy security, affordability, and access in the country, regardless of political affiliation. The current government has demonstrated a clear commitment to clean energy, and the Dominican Revolutionary Party, an opposition party, has likewise pledged to increase efficiency, reduce energy waste and theft, and diversify energy sources with renewable alternatives.104 This roadmap will inform the ambitions and strategies of all major political and civil society groups involved in the decision-making process. The goal of our non-partisan work is to guide current and future governments in their efforts to transition to an energy system that is economically, socially and environmentally sustainable.!
!

Stakeholders in the Dominican Republic widely acknowledge the need for additional reforms to ensure that the country’s clean energy aspirations and plans become reality. Both domestic efforts and collaboration with international expert organizations such as the Worldwatch Institute are central to finding best practice solutions and strategies for low-emissions energy development moving forward. The Dominican Republic recently drafted the first stage of its Climate-Compatible Development Plan (CCDP).105 The CCDP presents an overarching greenhouse gas-reduction plan that identifies lowemissions options in the electricity, transportation, agriculture, forestry, and land management sectors, among others. The potential for emissions abatement from the combination of these measures is up to 65 percent below business-as-usual (50 percent below 2010 levels) by 2030. Abatement options are prioritized by sector based on emissions-reduction potential, cost, and ease of implementation. The CCDP also analyzes the socioeconomic impact of the overall abatement strategy, including job creation, effects on disposable income, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and trade balance improvements. To realize these abatement and socioeconomic benefits, the CCDP reviews policies, identifies opportunities for legislative and institutional changes, and proposes concrete implementation strategies for targeted sectors. The plan also assesses necessary levels of investment and identifies available financing options. We are delighted to see that many of the CCDP’s recommendations are consistent with our analysis and the suggested reforms that we have made during our project’s implementation and in this final report. Since our renewable roadmap includes detailed analysis and sector-specific advice, we hope that it will be used to inform, complement, and advance the CCDP’s goals and strategies. We have identified several areas for further research that we plan to undertake to build on this report, with ongoing efforts of the Dominican government and other organizations. We are grateful to the German government’s International Climate Initiative (ICI) for enabling us to extend our work in the Dominican Republic, in addition to the support they already provide for the CCDP. Worldwatch has been communicating closely with the Government of the Dominican Republic and its CCDP partners to ensure that our roadmap work complements their initiative without duplicating any of its valuable work. We will continue to engage in an approach that specifically targets the energy sector through detailed renewable energy resource assessments and mapping, energy efficiency assessments, and technical and electricity grid assessments, in addition to policy and financing recommendations. Our future work will include research on additional renewable energy resources, consumption issues, and energy savings. We will detail technological solutions, including solar water heating and bagasse-based electricity generation. Worldwatch will examine the important role that energy efficiency can play in various sectors of the Dominican Republic’s economy to further decrease heavy use of fossil fuel imports. Additional work will examine the socioeconomic impacts of various energy strategies in more

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detail, including household energy costs and the impacts of oil subsidies. Research will also focus on how to target renewable energy generation to specific economic sectors based on how peak demand for various industries coincides with peak generation of variable renewable resources. To reliably benchmark the Dominican Republic’s progress and unique challenges for low-emissions energy development, Worldwatch will place elements of these analyses in an international context. Comparisons will include the physical potential of various renewable energy sources, drivers of energy consumption patterns by different economic sectors, and best-practice policy measures for renewable investment and low-cost energy access. All current and future research and implementation efforts depend on the availability of reliable data. There are opportunities for improving data generation, monitoring, reporting, and verification in the Dominican Republic, including coordination among government agencies and other entities that generate energy and related statistical data in the country. Worldwatch will make recommendations for improving data quality and sharing to create a more certain environment for future low-carbon energy investment and development across governmental departments. The Worldwatch Institute is committed to advancing our productive relationship with the Dominican government as well as private and NGO stakeholders in low-emissions energy development. Our research efforts will continue to focus on in-country needs and priorities to ensure that our strategies will provide valuable policy and planning tools to all key decision-makers in the Dominican Republic.

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ENDNOTES
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Copenhagen Accord of 18 December 2009, Conference of the Parties 15th Session, Copenhagen, Denmark. 2 UNFCCC, Bali Action Plan of December 2007, Conference of the Parties 13th Session, Bali, Indonesia. 3 C. Flavin, Low-Carbon Energy: A Roadmap, Worldwatch Report 178 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute), p. 5. 4 In 1998, Hurricane George caused 235 deaths and an estimated economic loss of $2.2 billion, or 14 percent of gross national income. Other hurricanes and storms since then caused further damage. See World Bank, Dominican Republic Environmental Priorities and Strategic Options Country Environmental Analysis, 29 June 2004. 5 A. Ochs, “Mapping the Future: Why Bidding Farewell to Fossil Fuels Is in Our Interests – And How It Can Be Done,” Climate Action, launched at UNFCCC 16th Conference of the Parties, Cancun, Mexico (London and Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme and Sustainable Development International, 2010). 6 Based on data from International Energy Agency (IEA), “2008 Energy Balance for Dominican Republic,” www.iea.org/stats/balancetable.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=DO. 7 IEA, “Electricity/Heat in Dominican Republic in 2008,” www.iea.org/stats/electricitydata.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=DO. 8 Organismo Coordinador (OC), Informe de Operación Real, OC-GO-IOPERACION-DIC-10, December 2010. 9 lbid. 10 McKinsey & Company, “Climate-Compatible Development Plan (CCDP) for the Dominican Republic,” Presentation at the 3rd Steering Committee Meeting, Santo Domingo, 3 May 2011. 11 Ibid. Figure 1 from OC, 2011, with modification by Comisión Nacional de Energía (CNE). 12 U.S. Department of State, “Background Note: Dominican Republic,” www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35639.htm. 13 CNE, Energy Access and Poverty Alleviation to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals in Latin America and the Caribbean, data provided by National Interconnected Electricity System (SENI), 2009. 14 Data are for 2004, per World Bank, Sustainable Development Department, Caribbean Country Management Unit Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Project Appraisal Document on a Proposed Loan in the Amount of US$42.0 Million Equivalent to the Dominican Republic for an Electricity Distribution Rehabilitation Project, 18 April 2008. 15 Figure 2 from OC, op. cit. note 8. 16 The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic reports that in 2010, USD $3,464 million was spent on fossil fuel imports and a national GDP of $51,657 million. '& !”Gobierno Duplicará los US350 Millones del Subsidio Eléctrico,” Diario Libre, 11 May 2011. 18 IEA, op. cit. note 6.! 19 In 2009, the Dominican Republic consumed 122,000 barrels of oil per day, with a maximum of 50,000 barrels imported under the PetroCaribe agreement with Venezuela, which provides oil to the Dominican Republic and other countries in Central America and the Caribbean at subsidized costs. Under the agreement, 40 percent of oil import payments must be paid in cash up front and the remaining 60 percent can be financed over a 25 year period at a 1 percent interest rate. Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Dominican Republic Country Analysis Brief, 30 June 2010; C.R. Seelke. “Dominican Republic: Background and U.S. Relations.” Congressional Research Service, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41482.pdf; “Petrocaribe: Making Our Case For Us,” ReVolt (Worldwatch Institute blog), 9 February 2011. 20 AES Dominican Presentation, Changing the Energy Matrix: Natural Gas in Dominican Republic and the Caribbean, LNG Symposium for Central America & Caribbean, Panama City, Panama, January 2011. 21 ”Gasoline Paces Fuel Price Jumps,” Dominican Today, 8 January 2011; “Dominican Republic Fuel Prices Set Record,” Dominican Today, 8 April 2011. Dollar amounts are converted at monthly exchange rates of 1 U.S. dollar equals 37.4 Dominican pesos in January 2011 and 37.7 Dominican pesos in April 2011. 22 G. Rothkopf, A Blueprint for Green Energy in the Americas, prepared for the Inter-American Development Bank, 2007; F. Gerner and M. Hansen, Caribbean Regional Electricity Supply Options: Toward Greater Security, Renewables, and Resilience (World Bank, Energy Unit, Sustainable Development Department, Latin America and the Caribbean, 2011); Nexant, Caribbean Regional Electricity Generation, Interconnection, and Fuels Supply Strategy, prepared for the World Bank, 2010. 23 “Sun Sets on Oil for Gulf Power Generation,” Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 19 January 2011. 24 REN21, Renewables 2010 Global Status Report (Paris: 2010). 25 Ibid. 26 B. Perlack and W. Hinds, Evaluation of the Barbados Solar Water Heating Experience (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2003); Inter-American Development Bank, “Barbados to Boost Renewable Energy Use, Reduce Fossil Fuel Dependence with IDB Help,” 15 September 2010, at www.iadb.org/mobile/news/detail.cfm?lang=en&id=7907. 27 M. Konold, “Global Wind Power Growth Takes a Breather in 2010,” Vital Signs Online (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 2011). 28 M. Delucchi and M. Jacobson, “Providing All Global Energy with Wind, Water, and Solar Power, Part II: Reliability, System and Transmission Costs, and Policies,” Energy Policy, vol. 39 (2011), pp. 1170–90. 29 Nexant, op. cit. note 22. 30 J. Tong, “The Opportunties & Proposals for Small Hydropower Development in Latin American & Caribbean Region,” presentation availble at www.unido.org. 31 Organismo Coordinador del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional Interconectado de la República Dominicana, Inc, Memoria Annual 2009. 32 Dominican Republic National Council on Climate Change and Clean Development Mechanism, The Study for the Promotion of CDM Projects in the Dominican Republic, 2010, available at www.cambioclimatico.gob.do/eng/Portals/0/pdf/DFR_MainEN.pdf. 33 J. Liriano, Los Campos Pueden Generar Su Energía, Listin Diario, 14 September 2010. 34 Dominican Republic National Council on Climate Change and Clean Development Mechanism, “A Journey to Sustainable Growth: The Draft Climate-Compatible Development Plan of the Dominican Republic,” September 2011. 35 Ibid. 36 Alvaro Atilano, Nova Oceanic Energy, personal communication with Worldwatch.
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M. Golkar, “Distributed Generation and Competition in Electric Distribution Market,” IEEE Eurocon 2009. S.G.M. Therien, “Distributed Generation: Issues Concerning a Changing Power Grid Paradigm,” A Thesis presented to the Faculty of California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA. 39 C. Lawrence, M. Salama, and R. Elshatshat, “Analysis of the Impact of Distributed Generation on Voltage Regulation,” 2004 IEEE PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition. 40 Therien, op. cit. note 35. 41 Taufik, Introduction to Power Electronics, 6th Rev., 2008. 42 Taufik, Advanced Power Electronics, 3rd Rev., 2009. 43 Ibid. 44 G.M. Masters, Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004). 45 P. Barker and R. De Mello, “Determining the Impact of Distributed Generation on Power Systems: Part 1 - Radial Distribution Systems,” Proceedings of the IEEE Power Engineering Society Transmission and Distribution Conference, vol. 3 (2000), pp. 1645–56. 46 McKinsey & Company, op. cit. note 10. 47 IEA, Harnessing Variable Renewables: A Guide to the Balancing Challenge – 2011 (Paris: May 2011). 48 M. Milligan and B. Kirby, Market Characteristics for Efficient Integration of Variable Generation in the Western Interconnection (Golden, CO: U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), August 2010). 49 GE Energy, The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on Transmission System Planning, Reliability, and Operations: Report on Phase 2, prepared for The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, 2005. 50 Such undersea cables have been proposed for several locations in the Caribbean, including the Dominican Republic; however, the most beneficial interconnections are generally seen as being in the Lesser Antilles, per Gerner and Hansen, op. cit. note 22. 51 University of Hawaii, Hawaii Natural Energy Institute, Oahu Wind Integration Study: Final Report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, 2011. 52 The cost of the cable system for the Puerto Rico-Dominican Republic interconnection is estimated at $282 million. Nexant, op. cit. note 22. 53 Centro Nacional de Energías Renovables, Proyecto: Estudio de las características necesarias de la red eléctrica para la evacuación de la energía eólica en la Republica Dominicana, prepared for CNE, 2008. 54 Milligan and Kirby, op. cit. note 48. 55 Ibid. 56 Ibid. 57 M. Ahlstrom, Short-term Forecasting: Integration of Forecast Data into Utility Operations Planning Tools, presented at the Utility Wind Integration Group/NREL Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations, St. Paul, MN, 21–22 February 2008; K. Rohrig, ed., Entwicklung eines Rechenmodells zur Windleistungsprognose für das Geboet des deutschen Verbundnetzes, Abschlussbericht Forchungsvorhaben Nr. 0329915A, gefördert durch Bundesministeriums für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (BMU) (Kassel, Germany: 2005). 58 European Photovoltaic Industry Association and Greenpeace International, Solar Generation: Solar Electricity for over One Billion People and Two Million Jobs by 2020 (Brussels: September 2006). 59 Global Wind Energy Council and Greenpeace International, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006 (Brussels: September 2006). 60 M. Wei, S. Patadia, and D.M. Kammen, “Putting Renewables and Energy Efficiency to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Generate in the US?” Energy Policy, vol. 38 (2010), pp. 919–31. 61 T. Bühler, H. Klemisch, and K. Ostenrath, Ausbildung und Arbeit für Erneuerbare Energien. Statusbericht 2007 (Bonn: Wissenscaftsladen Bonn, 2007), p. 15. 62 D.P. Barua, Grameen Shakti: Pioneering and Expanding Green Energy Revolution to Bangladesh (Dhaka: Grameen Bank Bhaban, April 2008). 63 For example, In 2007, Spain introduced ambitious feed-in tariffs that stimulated solar investment. But the scale of the subsidy was seen by some as too expensive, and there was pressure to remove it. When the government drastically reduced the tariff and set a rigid annual capacity cap to limit the number of eligible projects, solar investment collapsed. 64 K. Hamilton, Scaling Up Renewable Energy in Developing Countries, Finance and Investments Perspectives (London: Chatham House, 2010). 65 Constitution de la Republica Dominicana, 2010. 66 SEMARENA, Segunda Comunicacion Nacional, 2009. 67 “Discurso del Dr. Rafael Alburquerque de Castro Vicepresidente Constitucionale de la Republica Dominicana, en la 16va Conferencia de las Partes Sobre Cambio Climatico (COP16 MOP6,” Cancun, Mexico, 16 December 2010, at http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_16/statements/application/pdf/101209_cop16_hls_dominican_republic.pdf. 68 Office of Climate Change of the Dominican Republic, A Journey to Sustainable Growth, 2011, p. 3. 69 IEA, “Selected 2008 Indicators for Dominican Republic,” http://iea.org/stats/indicators.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=DO; SEMARENA, op. cit. note 66. Table 4 data for 2000 from UNFCCC Second National Communication; data for 2007 from World Resouces Institute, Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (Washington, DC: 2011). 70 CNE, Law 57-07, 2007. 71 National Energy Plan of the Dominican Republic, 2004–2015. 72 Ibid. 73 CNE, Net Metering Regulation, adapted by Worldwatch. 74 CNE, 2011. 75 Law 57-07, Chapter 3, Articles 9–14. 76 Table 6 from CNE. 77 Interviews at CNE, 2011. Table 7 from “Global Feed-in-Tariff Tracker,” PV News, August 2011. 78 Interviews at CNE, 2011. 79 World Bank, Country Assistance Strategy for the Dominican Republic FY10-13, paragraph 52. 80 CNE, Reglamento Medicion Neta, May 2011; “CNE apoyará a usuarios usen energía removable,” Diario Libre, 30 June 2011. 81 CNE, op. cit. note 80. Figure 22 from CNE, adapted by Worldwatch. 82 M. Lindstein, Financing Renewable Energies (Frankfurt: Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW), 2005).
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Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit, Proyecto Fomento de Energias Renovables – PROFER, Republica Dominicana, Evaluacion Final 2007. 84 Table 8 from Subdirección de Balanza de Pagos, División de Análisis de Exportaciones e Importaciones a partir de informaciones suministradas por la Dirección General de Aduanas (DGA) y empresas del sector privado, Dominican Republic, Worldwatch calculation 85 UNFCCC, “CDM–Home,” http://cdm.unfccc.int/. 86 Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA), The Dominican Republic’s National Action Plan for CDM Development, December 2010. 87 Table 9 from UNFCCC, “CDM Registry,” http://cdm.unfccc.int/Registry/index.html. 88 Per capita income is US$3,990, per World Bank, op. cit. note 79. The World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) provides interest-free credit to the world’s poorest countries with a repayment stretched over 35 to 40 years, including a 10-year grace period, and provides grants to countries at risk of debt distress. The Dominican Republic has “graduated” from IDA since FY 1973. 89 World Bank, op. cit. note 79, para. 53. 90 X. Fu-Bertaux, “Financing Renewable Energies in the Dominican Republic, Part 1,” ReVolt (Worldwatch Institute blog), July 2011. 91 Interview with BHD, available at www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZXeL73utIU&feature=channel_video_title. 92 Ibid 93 Figure 22 from National Council for Climate Change and Clean Development Mechanism (CNCCMDL). 94 Table 10 from CNCCMDL/JICA, Study for the Promotion of CDM Projects in the Dominican Republic, October 2010. 95 S. Nakhooda, S. Dixit, and N.K. Dubash, Empowering People: A Governance Analysis of Electricity; India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2007). 96 T. Beierle and J. Crawford, Public Participation in Environmental Decisions, Resources for the Future, cited in Nakhooda, Dixit, and Dubash, ibid. 97 Nakhooda, Dixit, and Dubash, op. cit. note 95. 98 O. Ramirez, Presentation of Climate Change Development Plan in Bonn, Germany, June 2011. 99 The Greenhouse Gas Protocol Initiative, “About the GHG Protocol,” www.ghgprotocol.org/about-ghgp. 100 L. Weischer et al., Grounding Green Power: Bottom-Up Perspectives on Smart Renewable Energy Policy in Developing Countries (Washington, DC: German Marshall Fund of the United States in cooperation with the Heinrich Boell Foundation and the World Resources Institute, May 2011). 101 Figure 23 from CNE Law 57-07 and interviews conducted by Worldwatch. 102 “Investors Suggest Creating a Single Stop Window,” El Dia, 5 May 2011. 103 TERNA Wind Energy Program, ”Energy-policy Framework Conditions for Electricity Markets and Renewable Energies, Country Profile, Dominican Republic“ (Eschborn, Germany: GTZ, 2009). 104 H. Mejía, Candidato presidencial del PRD, “El sector électrico y los engaños del PLD,” Editora Acento, August 2011. 105 Office of Climate Change of the Dominican Republic, op. cit. note 68.

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Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System: Harnessing the Dominican Republic’s Wind and Solar Resources

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FullView
SOLAR
Site Climate Variability Analysis
ANALYSIS OF 13-YEAR RECORD

Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
FOR

DATE

July 26, 2010

CONTACT
ph: +1 206.325.1573 fax: +1 206.325.1618 info@3tier.com www.3tier.com 2001 6th Avenue, Suite 2100 Seattle, WA 98121-2534

WorldWatch Institute

NOTICE
c Copyright ￿2010 3TIER, Inc. All rights reserved. 3TIER claims a copyright in all proprietary and copyrightable text and graphics in this Report, the overall design of this Report, and the selection, arrangement and presentation of all materials in this Report. Reproduction and redistribution are prohibited without the express written permission from 3TIER. Requests for permission may be directed to info@3tier.com.

Introduction

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

1

INTRODUCTION
3TIER has been retained by WorldWatch Institute to assess the variability and magnitude of solar irradiance, wind speed and temperature at the Santo Domingo project site located in Dominican Republic (Latitude: 18.472◦ N, Longitude: 69.892◦ W). This report provides a retrospective analysis of the past 13+ years of solar irradiance, wind speed and temperature data. The long-term (January 1, 1997 – December 31, 2009) average global horizontal irradiance value at the Santo Domingo site is 5.452 kWh/m2 /day (227.1 W/m2 ). The long-term average direct normal irradiance value is 4.971 kWh/m2 /day (207.1 W/m2 ), and the long-term average diffuse horizontal irradiance value is 2.039 kWh/m2 /day (84.97 W/m2 ). The long-term (January 1, 1997 – December 31, 2009) average wind speed at 10 meters above ground level (AGL) is 3.31 m/s. The long-term average temperature at 2 meters AGL is 25.9 ◦ C. No on-site observations were provided at this project location; thus, all data presented within this report are purely processed satellite output and raw model output. If observational data become available, 3TIER can incorporate the data via additional analysis and provide statistically-corrected results.

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c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

1

Table of Contents

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Contents
1 Introduction 2 Explanation of Irradiance Values 2.1 Global Horizontal Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Direct Normal Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Spatial Maps 3.1 Annual-mean Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Solar Resource Assessment 4.1 Monthly-mean Variability of Solar Irradiance 4.2 Solar Irradiance Distributions . . . . . . . . 4.3 Diurnal Variability of Solar Irradiance . . . . 4.4 Tabular Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Model simulations by 3TIER 6 Wind and Temperature Resource Assessment 6.1 Monthly-Mean Variability . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Distribution of Wind Direction . . . . . . . 6.3 Diurnal Variability of Wind Speed . . . . . 6.4 Diurnal Variability of Temperature . . . . . 6.5 Tabular Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 3 3 3 4 4

8 . 8 . 9 . 10 . 11 14 15 15 16 18 19 20

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2

Methodology

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2

EXPLANATION OF IRRADIANCE VALUES
The irradiance values presented in this report are from 3TIER’s solar dataset. This dataset is based on the past 13+ years (January 1997 through June 2010) of half-hourly high-resolution (roughly 1 km) visible satellite imagery from GOES satellite data (GOES East and GOES West, using the broad-band visible wavelength channel). The satellite imagery has been processed to create 13+ years of hourly values of Global Horizontal Irradiance, Direct Normal Irradiance and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance at a horizontal resolution of 2 arc minutes. To develop and validate the model, and estimate the error, 3TIER compared the derived irradiance values with observations from the direct surface radiation measurements contained in the National Solar Radiation Database and the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The error estimates were derived comparing the model data with observations that were not used in training or tuning the modelling system. For more information on 3TIER’s validation procedures, including validation white papers, please visit: http://www.3tier.com/en/support/solar-prospecting-tools/what-were-3tiers-solar-prospecting-datavalidation-procedures/.

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2.1 Global Horizontal Irradiance
Global Horizontal Irradiance is the quantity of the total solar radiation per unit area that is intercepted by a flat, horizontal surface. This value is of particular interest to photovoltaic installations. It includes both direct beam radiation (radiation that comes from the direction of the sun) and diffuse radiation (radiation that has been scattered by the atmosphere and which comes from all directions of the sky). The estimate has a standard error of 10%.

2.2 Direct Normal Irradiance
Direct Normal Irradiance is the quantity of direct beam solar radiation per unit area that is intercepted by a flat surface that is at all times pointed in the direction of the sun. This quantity is of particular interest to concentrating solar installations and installations that track the position of the sun. The estimate has a standard error of 16%.

2.3 Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance
Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance is the quantity of diffuse solar radiation per unit area that is intercepted by a flat, horizontal surface that is not subject to any shade or shadow and does not arrive on a direct path from the sun. The estimate has a standard error of 10%.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

3

Solar

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Maps

3

SPATIAL MAPS

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3.1 Annual-mean Maps
This section presents spatial maps of the solar irradiance across the Santo Domingo project region. All annual-mean maps within this section are calculated using 13+ years of satellite-based irradiance data. Annual-mean Maps are provided for Global Horizontal, Direct Normal and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance across an area of approximately 50km by 50km centered at Latitude: 18.472◦ N, Longitude: 69.892◦ W. These maps are displayed in Figures 1–3.

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Solar

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Maps

70˚00'W
18˚40'N

69˚50'W

69˚40'W
18˚40'N

18˚30'N
Santo Domingo

18˚30'N

18˚20'N

18˚20'N

70˚00'W

69˚50'W

69˚40'W
W/m2

Assessed Location

200.0

210.0

220.0

230.0

240.0

Global Horizontal Irradiance
Figure 1: Annual-mean Global Horizontal Irradiance. The yellow dot denotes the location of the Santo Domingo project site analyzed in Sections 4 and 6.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

5

Solar

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Maps

70˚00'W
18˚40'N

69˚50'W

69˚40'W
18˚40'N

18˚30'N
Santo Domingo

18˚30'N

18˚20'N

18˚20'N

70˚00'W

69˚50'W

69˚40'W
W/m2

Assessed Location

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

Direct Normal Irradiance
Figure 2: Annual-mean Direct Normal Irradiance. The yellow dot denotes the location of the Santo Domingo project site analyzed in Sections 4 and 6.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

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Solar

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Maps

70˚00'W
18˚40'N

69˚50'W

69˚40'W
18˚40'N

18˚30'N
Santo Domingo

18˚30'N

18˚20'N

18˚20'N

70˚00'W

69˚50'W

69˚40'W
W/m2

Assessed Location

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance
Figure 3: Annual-mean Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance. The yellow dot denotes the location of the Santo Domingo project site analyzed in Sections 4 and 6.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

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Solar

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Site Climate Variability Analysis

4

SOLAR RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
This section provides a retrospective analysis of the past 13+ years of solar irradiance data at the Santo Domingo project site (Latitude: 18.472◦ N, Longitude: 69.892◦ W). All irradiance data presented within this section are valid only for this particular location.

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4.1 Monthly-mean Variability of Solar Irradiance
300 Global Horizontal Irradiance

W / m2

200

300

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Direct Normal Irradiance

W / m2

200

100 120 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance

W / m2

80 60 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Figure 4: Variability of monthly-mean Global Horizontal [top], Direct Normal [middle], and Diffuse Horizontal [bottom] irradiance. Long-term monthly-mean values are denoted by colored circles. Upper and lower boundaries of the dark shading correspond to the 75% and 25% quartiles, while the light shading denotes the maximum and minimum monthly-mean irradiance values. Please note that the vertical scale varies between the plots.

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Solar

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Site Climate Variability Analysis

4.2 Solar Irradiance Distributions

12 Global Horizontal Irradiance

Frequency (%)

8

4

0 12

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Direct Normal Irradiance

Frequency (%)

8

4

0 20

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance

Frequency (%)

16 12 8 4 0

0

100

200

300

400

W / m2

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Figure 5: Distribution of hourly Global Horizontal [top], Direct Normal [middle] and Diffuse Horizontal [bottom] daylight irradiance values using 50 W/m2 bins. (0 W/m2 bin contains only values ≤ 25.) Each vertical bar represents the frequency of irradiance values occurring within each bin. For example, a vertical bar centered on 200 W/m2 reaching up to 10% means that one-tenth of all daytime values are between 175 and 225 W/m2 . Please note that the vertical scale varies between the plots.

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Solar

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Site Climate Variability Analysis

4.3 Diurnal Variability of Solar Irradiance
1000 800 W / m2 600 400 200 0 0 1000 800 W / m2 600 400 200 0 0 1000 800 W / m2 600 400 200 0 0 1000 800 W / m2 600 400 200 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) Global Horizontal 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) Direct Normal 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) Diffuse Horizontal 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 July 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 August 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 April 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 May 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 June January February March

September

October

November

December

Figure 6: Diurnal cycle of Global Horizontal (black), Direct Normal (orange) and Diffuse Horizontal (blue) irradiance for each month of the year. The horizontal axis is Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). Figures 7, 8, and 9 show the diurnal cycle of Global Horizontal, Direct Normal, and Diffuse Horizontal solar irradiance, respectively, for each calendar month as a ”12 X 24” table.

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Solar

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Site Climate Variability Analysis

4.4 Tabular Data

Global Horizontal Irradiance
Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.7

Feb
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.4

Mar
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 92.9

Apr
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9

May
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.5

Jun
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.0

Jly
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.0

Aug Sep
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4

Oct
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9

Nov Dec
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 92.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4

Avg
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1 120.3

157.8 183.9 180.8 169.0 155.8 145.1 129.9

Hour of Day (ECT)

188.1 225.2 286.0 357.5 371.3 369.6 371.9 362.3 349.1 331.9 279.4 208.6 308.4 374.0 425.5 480.9 548.5 550.4 550.3 554.3 548.2 535.2 517.8 459.4 384.9 494.1 517.3 570.9 627.1 687.4 693.6 668.2 684.4 681.2 667.0 634.9 573.4 508.3 626.4 585.9 652.2 732.4 788.0 785.3 748.6 747.4 763.6 740.2 702.5 638.4 566.8 704.8 613.2 681.1 791.0 841.0 833.4 805.2 793.4 809.5 766.0 706.6 655.9 592.4 741.7 624.7 705.3 795.0 826.4 819.0 779.3 767.8 777.8 761.3 677.6 632.1 582.7 730.1 559.5 655.9 741.9 745.2 733.1 690.9 691.8 679.8 660.5 571.9 532.2 502.1 648.4 446.9 536.3 603.8 600.2 585.5 552.9 560.5 533.4 498.5 419.7 393.7 384.1 511.1 297.5 368.2 422.1 419.4 409.9 393.2 404.0 372.5 321.7 255.7 224.0 229.3 344.5 120.3 177.0 209.9 220.6 224.3 225.2 237.4 211.6 148.5 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 167.9 35.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Avg 182.0 211.3 242.6 260.8 262.1 253.3 253.7 248.8 234.4 210.5 189.4 170.2 227.1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg

W/m2 0 200 400 600 800

Figure 7: Hourly-mean Global Horizontal Irradiance values in W/m2 . The vertical axis is Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). The overall mean in the bottom right corner is based on full years only. Time series graph of the diurnal variability is shown in Figure 6.

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Site Climate Variability Analysis

Direct Normal Irradiance
Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.1

Feb
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mar
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9

Apr
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3

May
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.3

Jun
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.6

Jly
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.6

Aug Sep
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5

Oct
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3

Nov Dec
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Avg
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0

113.1 150.6 245.4 249.7 228.4 232.6 231.5 242.1 240.8 177.0 114.1 191.5

Hour of Day (ECT)

361.1 402.3 401.5 423.4 388.5 375.8 418.6 431.1 448.8 480.2 462.4 380.7 413.6 537.7 559.9 507.8 500.3 466.0 459.2 493.3 508.3 517.7 569.9 578.6 529.5 518.2 567.5 566.5 518.6 520.7 503.3 465.4 491.7 504.7 512.9 541.4 555.8 540.7 523.9 516.9 541.3 553.6 556.3 537.5 491.7 479.8 509.4 511.1 523.3 538.3 499.3 521.8 499.0 517.1 581.4 583.5 564.2 535.6 512.2 536.6 518.3 503.4 531.7 493.6 532.0 533.8 562.3 599.1 597.9 583.4 533.3 513.1 528.4 553.0 518.8 546.5 505.9 548.5 527.6 586.2 625.4 583.6 551.8 494.5 492.3 485.8 519.3 487.8 520.1 491.6 531.2 504.9 556.8 590.2 527.6 492.0 431.0 435.9 418.5 437.1 414.2 468.0 456.4 478.7 446.6 480.8 514.7 445.6 405.4 347.7 358.0 339.9 329.2 321.6 349.1 365.1 393.3 244.6 323.9 339.5 304.5 279.6 242.4 256.7 241.6 195.6 146.3 127.6 151.3 239.2 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Avg 201.2 219.4 227.0 224.8 215.3 197.7 200.7 201.4 201.3 198.5 202.4 188.7 207.1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg

W/m2 0 200 400 600

Figure 8: Hourly-mean Direct Normal Irradiance values in W/m2 . The vertical axis is Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). The overall mean in the bottom right corner is based on full years only. Time series graph of the diurnal variability is shown in Figure 6.

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Site Climate Variability Analysis

Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance
Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Avg
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.0 84.6

Feb
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.7 95.8

Mar
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 57.4

Apr
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 86.8

May
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.1

Jun
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.7

Jly
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.8 96.3

Aug Sep
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 78.5

Oct
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 69.7

Nov Dec
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 55.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.9 92.0

Avg
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 68.2 129.1

101.6 104.4

Hour of Day (ECT)

121.8 149.6 164.2 169.6 157.8 149.9 134.8 120.5 106.2

125.2 136.8 173.5 205.4 215.7 223.1 211.7 199.9 189.5 163.0 142.0 131.0 176.7 169.5 187.9 228.7 250.7 258.6 269.7 269.5 258.4 246.7 220.5 194.0 175.2 227.6 214.0 223.2 244.5 263.7 269.9 279.5 292.2 282.2 270.1 255.1 224.5 212.8 252.7 229.0 242.6 249.0 267.3 271.9 273.7 284.9 278.5 269.8 262.9 233.9 224.8 257.4 219.7 232.9 244.9 251.7 252.5 260.6 266.0 264.1 247.3 239.3 218.1 218.0 243.0 196.1 203.3 214.7 231.9 242.5 247.6 245.8 244.9 223.9 207.4 186.5 188.0 219.6 161.3 175.4 184.3 208.6 214.7 221.5 220.5 214.0 193.5 171.9 150.1 152.3 189.3 119.0 138.4 147.9 169.5 175.3 184.3 184.8 173.2 152.6 124.0 104.1 104.9 148.5 65.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.1 86.1 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.7 98.8 26.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.1 112.8 118.9 127.4 131.3 118.8 35.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.6 43.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2 53.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.2 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.0 88.8 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.4 59.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.3 39.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.0 44.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.6 91.4 25.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.0

101.9 101.7

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jly

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Avg

W/m2 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Figure 9: Hourly-mean Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance values in W/m2 . The vertical axis is Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). The overall mean in the bottom right corner is based on full years only. Time series graph of the diurnal variability is shown in Figure 6.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

13

Model Simulations

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

5

MODEL SIMULATIONS BY 3TIER
The assessment of the wind resource at the Santo Domingo project site presented in this report is based on 13+ years of simulated data (January 1997 through June 2010). The simulated data set is constructed using a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model that processes coarse-resolution historic gridded data and high resolution topographical and surface data to generate the meteorological time series data. The NWP model simulated data set is constructed from two separate model runs: a 13-year 13.5km resolution simulation and a 1-year 4.5km resolution simulation. Some details of the NWP model configuration are shown below in Table 1. The extent of the coarsest grid was selected to capture the effect of synoptic weather events on the wind resource at the site, as well as to allow the model to develop regional, thermally-driven circulations. The increasingly fine 40.5km, 13.5km, and 4.5km grids were selected to model the effect of local terrain and local scale atmospheric circulations.

........................................................................................................................................

Parameter Mesoscale numerical weather prediction model Horizontal resolution of valid study area Number of vertical levels Elevation data base Vegetation data base Surface parameterization Boundary layer parameterization Land surface scheme

Value WRF 4.5km 31 3 second SRTM 30 second USGS Monin-Obukhov similarity model YSU model (MRF with entrainment) 5-layer soil diffusivity model

Table 1: Numerical weather prediction model configuration.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

14

Wind and Temperature

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

6

WIND AND TEMPERATURE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
This section provides a retrospective analysis of the past 13+ years of wind and temperature data at the Santo Domingo project site (Latitude: 18.472◦ N, Longitude: 69.892◦ W). All data presented within this section are valid only for this particular location.

........................................................................................................................................

6.1 Monthly-Mean Variability
5

Wind Speed (m/s)

4

3

2

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Month

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Figure 10: Variability of monthly-mean wind speed at 10m AGL at Santo Domingo. Long-term monthly-mean values are denoted by colored circles. Upper and lower boundaries of the dark shading correspond to the 75% and 25% quartiles, while the light shading denotes the maximum and minimum monthly-mean wind speeds.

30

Temperature (oC)

25

20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Month

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Figure 11: Variability of monthly-mean temperature at 2m AGL at Santo Domingo. Long-term monthly-mean values are denoted by colored circles. Upper and lower boundaries of the dark shading correspond to the 75% and 25% quartiles, while the light shading denotes the maximum and minimum monthly-mean temperature.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

15

Wind and Temperature

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

6.2 Distribution of Wind Direction

N
NW NE

W

E

SW

SE

S

10 %

Figure 12: Annual wind rose at Santo Domingo showing the prevailing wind directions at 10m AGL. Directional bins are 22.5◦ wide, and the radial contour interval is 10%.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

16

Wind and Temperature

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

January

N

February

N

March

N

W

E

W

E

W

E

S April N

10 % May

S N

10 % June

S N

10 %

W

E

W

E

W

E

S July N

10 % August

S N

10 % September

S N

10 %

W

E

W

E

W

E

S October N

10 % November

S N

10 % December

S N

10 %

W

E

W

E

W

E

S

10 %

S

10 %

S

10 %

Figure 13: Monthly wind roses at Santo Domingo showing the prevailing wind directions at 10m AGL. Directional bins are 22.5◦ wide, and the radial contour interval is 10%.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

17

Wind and Temperature

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

6.3 Diurnal Variability of Wind Speed
5 4 3 2 0 5 4 3 2 0 5 4 3 2 0 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) 4 8 12 16 20 24 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) 4 8 12 16 20 24 July 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) 4 8 12 16 20 24 April 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 August 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 January 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 May 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 February 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 June March

Wind Speed (m/s)

Wind Speed (m/s)

September

Wind Speed (m/s)

October

November

December

Figure 14: Diurnal cycle of wind speed at 10m AGL for each month of the year. The horizontal axis is in Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). Figure 16 shows the diurnal cycle of wind speed for each calendar month as a ‘12 X 24’ table.

Wind Speed (m/s)

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

18

Wind and Temperature

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

6.4 Diurnal Variability of Temperature
35 30 25 20 0 35 30 25 20 0 35 30 25 20 0 35 30 25 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) 4 8 12 16 20 24 35 30 25 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) 4 8 12 16 20 24 July 35 30 25 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 35 30 25 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) 4 8 12 16 20 24 April 35 30 25 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 August 35 30 25 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 January 35 30 25 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 May 35 30 25 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 February 35 30 25 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 June March

Temperature (oC)

Temperature (oC)

September

Temperature (oC)

October

November

December

Figure 15: Diurnal cycle of temperature at 2m AGL for each month of the year. The horizontal axis is in Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). Figure 17 shows the diurnal cycle of temperature for each calendar month as a ‘12 X 24’ table.

Temperature (oC)

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

19

Wind and Temperature

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

6.5 Tabular Data
Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Avg
3.44 3.35 3.28 3.24 3.20 3.22 3.27 3.30 3.37 3.58 3.69 3.70 3.77 3.93 3.99 4.02 3.99 3.96 3.70 3.65 3.59 3.55 3.52 3.49 3.58

Feb
3.33 3.22 3.14 3.09 3.09 3.08 3.10 3.13 3.07 3.49 3.62 3.71 3.84 4.05 4.13 4.16 4.13 4.03 3.78 3.43 3.50 3.52 3.47 3.41 3.52

Mar
2.95 2.92 2.87 2.76 2.73 2.73 2.76 2.82 3.03 3.29 3.38 3.56 3.80 4.01 4.07 4.08 4.02 3.92 3.75 3.18 3.09 3.04 3.04 3.00 3.28

Apr
2.83 2.77 2.69 2.65 2.63 2.68 2.70 2.73 3.02 3.15 3.29 3.52 3.84 4.06 4.11 4.10 4.11 4.00 3.84 3.13 3.08 3.03 2.97 2.92 3.24

May
2.70 2.64 2.55 2.50 2.50 2.52 2.53 2.62 2.80 2.94 3.16 3.52 3.84 4.02 4.09 4.08 4.06 3.96 3.73 3.12 2.84 2.81 2.82 2.76 3.13

Jun
2.77 2.66 2.55 2.48 2.49 2.54 2.59 2.72 2.85 2.94 3.15 3.59 3.96 4.08 4.09 4.08 4.11 4.03 3.78 3.09 2.74 2.93 2.97 2.92 3.17

Jly
3.08 2.92 2.80 2.74 2.77 2.86 2.94 3.05 3.17 3.19 3.26 3.61 4.02 4.15 4.16 4.16 4.20 4.13 3.84 3.13 2.98 3.19 3.23 3.20 3.37

Aug Sep
2.91 2.78 2.71 2.67 2.72 2.80 2.88 2.95 3.09 3.16 3.23 3.53 3.92 4.07 4.05 4.03 4.05 3.94 3.65 2.82 2.73 2.90 3.01 3.00 3.23 2.61 2.57 2.52 2.49 2.51 2.54 2.61 2.64 2.71 2.84 3.02 3.38 3.82 4.05 4.13 4.06 4.01 3.92 3.70 2.88 2.63 2.59 2.59 2.64 3.06

Oct
2.74 2.68 2.66 2.67 2.74 2.77 2.80 2.82 2.77 3.00 3.07 3.32 3.60 3.81 3.90 3.85 3.80 3.70 3.50 2.99 2.93 2.91 2.86 2.80 3.11

Nov Dec
3.07 3.03 2.98 2.98 3.03 3.05 3.12 3.17 3.25 3.41 3.44 3.51 3.65 3.79 3.92 3.96 3.95 3.85 3.57 3.45 3.44 3.39 3.31 3.21 3.40 3.43 3.32 3.26 3.22 3.24 3.29 3.30 3.35 3.41 3.59 3.70 3.76 3.84 3.95 4.09 4.09 4.04 3.96 3.58 3.63 3.66 3.66 3.60 3.56 3.60

Avg
2.99 2.90 2.83 2.79 2.80 2.84 2.88 2.94 3.05 3.21 3.33 3.56 3.83 4.00 4.06 4.06 4.04 3.95 3.70 3.21 3.10 3.12 3.12 3.08 3.31

Hour of Day (ECT)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jly

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Avg

m/s 2.0 2.5

Wind Speed

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Figure 16: Hourly-mean wind speed values at 10m AGL in m/s. The vertical axis is in Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). The overall mean in the bottom right corner is based on full years only. Time series graph of the diurnal variability for each month is shown in Figure 14.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

20

Wind and Temperature

Santo Domingo For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Avg
22.7 22.5 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.5 22.2 24.3 26.2 27.4 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.5 26.8 25.4 24.5 24.0 23.6 23.2 22.9 24.5

Feb
22.5 22.3 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.4 22.5 24.7 26.3 27.5 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.7 25.4 24.4 23.9 23.5 23.1 22.8 24.4

Mar
22.9 22.7 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.9 21.9 23.6 25.6 26.9 27.8 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.7 25.6 24.6 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.2 24.7

Apr
23.5 23.2 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.3 22.5 24.6 26.5 27.7 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.3 25.1 24.7 24.3 24.0 23.7 25.3

May
24.3 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.3 23.1 23.6 25.8 27.6 28.7 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.6 26.2

Jun
24.7 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.3 24.0 26.2 28.3 29.4 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.0 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.0 26.7

Jly
24.7 24.4 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.2 23.9 26.2 28.5 29.8 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.1 29.7 29.3 28.5 27.3 26.4 26.0 25.5 25.1 26.9

Aug Sep
25.0 24.7 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.9 26.1 28.6 30.0 30.8 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.4 29.9 29.5 28.6 27.3 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 27.1 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.8 25.8 28.3 29.8 30.5 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.3 29.8 29.4 28.3 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.6 27.1

Oct
25.0 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.7 23.6 25.0 27.5 29.2 30.2 30.7 30.8 30.5 30.1 29.6 29.1 27.8 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.3 26.8

Nov Dec
24.0 23.7 23.4 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.8 22.7 23.6 25.9 27.9 29.0 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.2 26.9 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.3 25.9 23.3 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.4 22.3 22.2 22.8 24.8 26.8 27.9 28.8 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.3 26.0 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.6 25.1

Avg
24.0 23.7 23.5 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.9 24.5 26.7 28.2 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.0 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.3 25.9

Hour of Day (ECT)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jly

Aug Sep

Oct
oC

Nov Dec

Avg

20

Temperature

25

30

Figure 17: Hourly-mean temperature values at 2m AGL in degrees Celsius. The vertical axis is in Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). The overall mean in the bottom right corner is based on full years only. Time series graph of the diurnal variability for each month is shown in Figure 15.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

21

FullView
SOLAR
Site Climate Variability Analysis
ANALYSIS OF 13-YEAR RECORD

Santiago, Dominican Republic
FOR

DATE

July 26, 2010

CONTACT
ph: +1 206.325.1573 fax: +1 206.325.1618 info@3tier.com www.3tier.com 2001 6th Avenue, Suite 2100 Seattle, WA 98121-2534

WorldWatch Institute

NOTICE
c Copyright ￿2010 3TIER, Inc. All rights reserved. 3TIER claims a copyright in all proprietary and copyrightable text and graphics in this Report, the overall design of this Report, and the selection, arrangement and presentation of all materials in this Report. Reproduction and redistribution are prohibited without the express written permission from 3TIER. Requests for permission may be directed to info@3tier.com.

Introduction

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

1

INTRODUCTION
3TIER has been retained by WorldWatch Institute to assess the variability and magnitude of solar irradiance, wind speed and temperature at the Santiago project site located in Dominican Republic (Latitude: 19.454◦ N, Longitude: 70.709◦ W). This report provides a retrospective analysis of the past 13+ years of solar irradiance, wind speed and temperature data. The long-term (January 1, 1997 – December 31, 2009) average global horizontal irradiance value at the Santiago site is 5.596 kWh/m2 /day (233.2 W/m2 ). The long-term average direct normal irradiance value is 5.353 kWh/m2 /day (223.0 W/m2 ), and the long-term average diffuse horizontal irradiance value is 1.904 kWh/m2 /day (79.34 W/m2 ). The long-term (January 1, 1997 – December 31, 2009) average wind speed at 10 meters above ground level (AGL) is 3.95 m/s. The long-term average temperature at 2 meters AGL is 24.8 ◦ C. No on-site observations were provided at this project location; thus, all data presented within this report are purely processed satellite output and raw model output. If observational data become available, 3TIER can incorporate the data via additional analysis and provide statistically-corrected results.

........................................................................................................................................

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

1

Table of Contents

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Contents
1 Introduction 2 Explanation of Irradiance Values 2.1 Global Horizontal Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Direct Normal Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Spatial Maps 3.1 Annual-mean Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Solar Resource Assessment 4.1 Monthly-mean Variability of Solar Irradiance 4.2 Solar Irradiance Distributions . . . . . . . . 4.3 Diurnal Variability of Solar Irradiance . . . . 4.4 Tabular Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Model simulations by 3TIER 6 Wind and Temperature Resource Assessment 6.1 Monthly-Mean Variability . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Distribution of Wind Direction . . . . . . . 6.3 Diurnal Variability of Wind Speed . . . . . 6.4 Diurnal Variability of Temperature . . . . . 6.5 Tabular Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 3 3 3 4 4

8 . 8 . 9 . 10 . 11 14 15 15 16 18 19 20

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

2

Methodology

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

2

EXPLANATION OF IRRADIANCE VALUES
The irradiance values presented in this report are from 3TIER’s solar dataset. This dataset is based on the past 13+ years (January 1997 through June 2010) of half-hourly high-resolution (roughly 1 km) visible satellite imagery from GOES satellite data (GOES East and GOES West, using the broad-band visible wavelength channel). The satellite imagery has been processed to create 13+ years of hourly values of Global Horizontal Irradiance, Direct Normal Irradiance and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance at a horizontal resolution of 2 arc minutes. To develop and validate the model, and estimate the error, 3TIER compared the derived irradiance values with observations from the direct surface radiation measurements contained in the National Solar Radiation Database and the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The error estimates were derived comparing the model data with observations that were not used in training or tuning the modelling system. For more information on 3TIER’s validation procedures, including validation white papers, please visit: http://www.3tier.com/en/support/solar-prospecting-tools/what-were-3tiers-solar-prospecting-datavalidation-procedures/.

........................................................................................................................................

2.1 Global Horizontal Irradiance
Global Horizontal Irradiance is the quantity of the total solar radiation per unit area that is intercepted by a flat, horizontal surface. This value is of particular interest to photovoltaic installations. It includes both direct beam radiation (radiation that comes from the direction of the sun) and diffuse radiation (radiation that has been scattered by the atmosphere and which comes from all directions of the sky). The estimate has a standard error of 10%.

2.2 Direct Normal Irradiance
Direct Normal Irradiance is the quantity of direct beam solar radiation per unit area that is intercepted by a flat surface that is at all times pointed in the direction of the sun. This quantity is of particular interest to concentrating solar installations and installations that track the position of the sun. The estimate has a standard error of 16%.

2.3 Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance
Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance is the quantity of diffuse solar radiation per unit area that is intercepted by a flat, horizontal surface that is not subject to any shade or shadow and does not arrive on a direct path from the sun. The estimate has a standard error of 10%.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

3

Solar

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Maps

3

SPATIAL MAPS

........................................................................................................................................

3.1 Annual-mean Maps
This section presents spatial maps of the solar irradiance across the Santiago project region. All annual-mean maps within this section are calculated using 13+ years of satellite-based irradiance data. Annual-mean Maps are provided for Global Horizontal, Direct Normal and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance across an area of approximately 50km by 50km centered at Latitude: 19.454◦ N, Longitude: 70.709◦ W. These maps are displayed in Figures 1–3.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

4

Solar

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Maps

70˚50'W
19˚40'N

70˚40'W

70˚30'W
19˚40'N

19˚30'N

19˚30'N

Santiago

19˚20'N

19˚20'N

70˚50'W

70˚40'W

70˚30'W
W/m2

Assessed Location

200.0

210.0

220.0

230.0

240.0

Global Horizontal Irradiance
Figure 1: Annual-mean Global Horizontal Irradiance. The yellow dot denotes the location of the Santiago project site analyzed in Sections 4 and 6.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

5

Solar

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Maps

70˚50'W
19˚40'N

70˚40'W

70˚30'W
19˚40'N

19˚30'N

19˚30'N

Santiago

19˚20'N

19˚20'N

70˚50'W

70˚40'W

70˚30'W
W/m2

Assessed Location

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

Direct Normal Irradiance
Figure 2: Annual-mean Direct Normal Irradiance. The yellow dot denotes the location of the Santiago project site analyzed in Sections 4 and 6.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

6

Solar

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Maps

70˚50'W
19˚40'N

70˚40'W

70˚30'W
19˚40'N

19˚30'N

19˚30'N

Santiago

19˚20'N

19˚20'N

70˚50'W

70˚40'W

70˚30'W
W/m2

Assessed Location

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance
Figure 3: Annual-mean Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance. The yellow dot denotes the location of the Santiago project site analyzed in Sections 4 and 6.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

7

Solar

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

4

SOLAR RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
This section provides a retrospective analysis of the past 13+ years of solar irradiance data at the Santiago project site (Latitude: 19.454◦ N, Longitude: 70.709◦ W). All irradiance data presented within this section are valid only for this particular location.

........................................................................................................................................

4.1 Monthly-mean Variability of Solar Irradiance
Global Horizontal Irradiance

300

W / m2

200

100 Jan 300 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Direct Normal Irradiance

W / m2

200

100 120 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance

W / m2

80 60 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Month

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Figure 4: Variability of monthly-mean Global Horizontal [top], Direct Normal [middle], and Diffuse Horizontal [bottom] irradiance. Long-term monthly-mean values are denoted by colored circles. Upper and lower boundaries of the dark shading correspond to the 75% and 25% quartiles, while the light shading denotes the maximum and minimum monthly-mean irradiance values. Please note that the vertical scale varies between the plots.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

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Solar

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

4.2 Solar Irradiance Distributions

12 Global Horizontal Irradiance

Frequency (%)

8

4

0 12

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000 1100

Direct Normal Irradiance

Frequency (%)

8

4

0 24 20

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000 1100

Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance

Frequency (%)

16 12 8 4 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100

W / m2

Figure 5: Distribution of hourly Global Horizontal [top], Direct Normal [middle] and Diffuse Horizontal [bottom] daylight irradiance values using 50 W/m2 bins. (0 W/m2 bin contains only values ≤ 25.) Each vertical bar represents the frequency of irradiance values occurring within each bin. For example, a vertical bar centered on 200 W/m2 reaching up to 10% means that one-tenth of all daytime values are between 175 and 225 W/m2 . Please note that the vertical scale varies between the plots.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

9

Solar

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

4.3 Diurnal Variability of Solar Irradiance
1000 800 W / m2 600 400 200 0 0 1000 800 W / m2 600 400 200 0 0 1000 800 W / m2 600 400 200 0 0 1000 800 W / m2 600 400 200 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) Global Horizontal 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) Direct Normal 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) Diffuse Horizontal 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 July 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 August 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 April 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 May 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 June January February March

September

October

November

December

Figure 6: Diurnal cycle of Global Horizontal (black), Direct Normal (orange) and Diffuse Horizontal (blue) irradiance for each month of the year. The horizontal axis is Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). Figures 7, 8, and 9 show the diurnal cycle of Global Horizontal, Direct Normal, and Diffuse Horizontal solar irradiance, respectively, for each calendar month as a ”12 X 24” table.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

10

Solar

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

4.4 Tabular Data

Global Horizontal Irradiance
Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.5

Feb
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.9

Mar
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 82.1

Apr
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3

May
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.0

Jun
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.4

Jly
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.1

Aug Sep
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2

Oct
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3

Nov Dec
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 79.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.5

Avg
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9 112.9

150.1 178.8 184.4 169.1 153.3 136.0 116.3

Hour of Day (ECT)

162.5 198.6 266.8 342.6 375.2 388.4 376.8 366.4 340.5 309.3 254.1 182.4 297.1 336.4 388.0 471.1 548.0 579.2 593.4 580.1 579.0 555.1 511.3 427.6 351.5 493.5 476.4 548.3 645.1 717.9 729.7 750.2 745.0 745.0 725.6 657.6 551.1 486.6 648.4 569.8 658.4 759.8 823.4 821.7 862.4 855.5 856.4 830.7 745.3 634.3 569.6 749.2 612.0 703.6 788.7 844.2 860.7 897.1 895.3 892.1 857.1 754.0 651.0 608.0 780.7 623.1 723.3 772.3 798.3 808.0 848.4 868.5 854.1 821.4 727.0 627.8 592.3 755.7 555.7 658.2 687.3 699.6 672.7 741.1 766.9 759.7 702.5 604.1 527.1 508.7 657.3 437.6 528.6 540.8 541.7 516.7 581.6 630.6 602.0 515.2 435.9 389.0 391.5 509.7 296.0 368.0 388.8 389.5 366.4 413.2 447.4 418.1 326.9 265.5 228.5 240.1 346.5 128.2 186.5 211.4 218.0 208.3 242.3 264.9 231.8 162.0 100.9 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.7 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 176.3 42.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

Avg 176.3 209.6 235.8 256.1 259.2 276.4 280.3 272.8 250.5 218.2 185.1 168.8 233.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg

W/m2 0 200 400 600 800

Figure 7: Hourly-mean Global Horizontal Irradiance values in W/m2 . The vertical axis is Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). The overall mean in the bottom right corner is based on full years only. Time series graph of the diurnal variability is shown in Figure 6.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

11

Solar

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

Direct Normal Irradiance
Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.0

Feb
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.5

Mar
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3

Apr
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3

May
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0

Jun
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.1

Jly
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.3

Aug Sep
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.2

Oct
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4

Nov Dec
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9

Avg
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2 192.5

146.2 255.3 256.3 252.4 250.1 252.3 246.0 227.2 166.4

Hour of Day (ECT)

328.3 367.7 384.8 422.4 410.5 425.7 442.1 462.1 452.0 451.4 437.7 344.8 410.1 495.9 519.7 524.9 539.5 536.2 548.4 555.6 589.1 584.1 585.4 543.6 494.6 542.6 547.1 578.2 599.6 603.9 585.3 605.3 611.1 636.4 647.5 618.4 567.0 550.9 595.6 558.0 603.1 633.8 629.5 604.2 647.4 640.7 665.2 672.3 630.0 585.0 559.6 618.8 560.4 594.2 599.0 602.0 607.1 641.4 642.2 653.1 647.3 586.6 574.1 567.7 606.0 564.6 615.1 576.2 561.2 562.3 598.8 623.3 621.9 632.9 587.3 562.4 563.4 588.6 541.0 601.8 545.7 513.7 475.9 544.2 572.1 581.2 573.4 531.3 518.3 529.8 543.4 501.1 550.6 478.5 429.5 390.3 469.3 520.0 498.0 465.6 437.9 456.6 492.3 473.6 451.7 485.1 433.4 374.5 330.6 386.1 423.1 404.9 349.9 349.2 364.5 409.4 397.0 288.0 368.5 337.7 290.3 247.7 285.8 314.9 288.1 235.2 179.0 164.4 191.2 266.7 24.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 104.5 100.7 123.3 138.1 118.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Avg 205.3 227.3 223.2 222.9 215.3 232.8 240.6 241.2 232.3 216.7 205.9 200.0 223.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg

W/m2 0 200 400 600

Figure 8: Hourly-mean Direct Normal Irradiance values in W/m2 . The vertical axis is Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). The overall mean in the bottom right corner is based on full years only. Time series graph of the diurnal variability is shown in Figure 6.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

12

Solar

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance
Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Avg
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 75.7

Feb
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.3 86.4

Mar
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 49.5

Apr
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 79.8

May
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.2 96.8

Jun
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.2 101.9

Jly
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.5 93.3

Aug Sep
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 82.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 71.8

Oct
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 63.1

Nov Dec
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 45.6 98.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.0 82.8

Avg
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 62.2 122.4

Hour of Day (ECT)

115.3 140.5 158.5 164.4 154.2 142.4 130.3 117.6

115.0 128.8 159.1 182.5 197.2 205.2 196.5 180.4 170.4 154.1 137.7 122.5 162.7 149.4 165.2 191.5 216.2 227.8 234.0 231.4 215.4 200.8 191.4 170.9 155.0 196.0 175.7 188.5 208.4 234.9 244.4 246.8 250.2 231.5 218.3 213.4 191.2 180.6 215.5 187.4 206.2 235.4 254.3 256.9 260.3 257.8 247.5 241.3 241.5 200.2 191.8 231.9 199.6 210.7 245.3 258.2 260.0 263.6 256.9 248.7 234.5 231.9 204.3 190.9 234.0 185.6 195.5 227.0 245.5 245.9 249.1 245.1 236.7 219.1 205.5 183.5 172.4 217.9 155.2 172.0 199.6 219.4 218.5 215.9 219.9 217.5 187.4 172.1 151.0 142.6 189.6 115.1 135.7 156.2 176.1 171.2 176.4 183.2 175.0 145.4 120.3 103.4 101.2 147.0 64.2 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.2 82.9 17.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.2 99.6 29.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.9 113.2 112.5 123.1 130.7 118.0 37.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.4 46.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.2 57.7 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1 62.2 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.0 48.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.8 89.2 20.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.7 59.9 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.1 41.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.7 46.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.7 90.4 27.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.3

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jly

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Avg

W/m2 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Figure 9: Hourly-mean Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance values in W/m2 . The vertical axis is Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). The overall mean in the bottom right corner is based on full years only. Time series graph of the diurnal variability is shown in Figure 6.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

13

Model Simulations

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

5

MODEL SIMULATIONS BY 3TIER
The assessment of the wind resource at the Santiago project site presented in this report is based on 13+ years of simulated data (January 1997 through June 2010). The simulated data set is constructed using a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model that processes coarse-resolution historic gridded data and high resolution topographical and surface data to generate the meteorological time series data. The NWP model simulated data set is constructed from two separate model runs: a 13-year 13.5km resolution simulation and a 1-year 4.5km resolution simulation. Some details of the NWP model configuration are shown below in Table 1. The extent of the coarsest grid was selected to capture the effect of synoptic weather events on the wind resource at the site, as well as to allow the model to develop regional, thermally-driven circulations. The increasingly fine 40.5km, 13.5km, and 4.5km grids were selected to model the effect of local terrain and local scale atmospheric circulations.

........................................................................................................................................

Parameter Mesoscale numerical weather prediction model Horizontal resolution of valid study area Number of vertical levels Elevation data base Vegetation data base Surface parameterization Boundary layer parameterization Land surface scheme

Value WRF 4.5km 31 3 second SRTM 30 second USGS Monin-Obukhov similarity model YSU model (MRF with entrainment) 5-layer soil diffusivity model

Table 1: Numerical weather prediction model configuration.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

14

Wind and Temperature

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

6

WIND AND TEMPERATURE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
This section provides a retrospective analysis of the past 13+ years of wind and temperature data at the Santiago project site (Latitude: 19.454◦ N, Longitude: 70.709◦ W). All data presented within this section are valid only for this particular location.

........................................................................................................................................

6.1 Monthly-Mean Variability
6

Wind Speed (m/s)

5 4 3 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Figure 10: Variability of monthly-mean wind speed at 10m AGL at Santiago. Long-term monthly-mean values are denoted by colored circles. Upper and lower boundaries of the dark shading correspond to the 75% and 25% quartiles, while the light shading denotes the maximum and minimum monthly-mean wind speeds.

30

Temperature (oC)

25

20

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Month

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Figure 11: Variability of monthly-mean temperature at 2m AGL at Santiago. Long-term monthly-mean values are denoted by colored circles. Upper and lower boundaries of the dark shading correspond to the 75% and 25% quartiles, while the light shading denotes the maximum and minimum monthly-mean temperature.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

15

Wind and Temperature

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

6.2 Distribution of Wind Direction

N
NW NE

W

E

SW

SE

S

10 %

Figure 12: Annual wind rose at Santiago showing the prevailing wind directions at 10m AGL. Directional bins are 22.5◦ wide, and the radial contour interval is 10%.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

16

Wind and Temperature

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

January

N

February

N

March

N

W

E

W

E

W

E

S April N

10 % May

S N

10 % June

S N

10 %

W

E

W

E

W

E

S July N

10 % August

S N

10 % September

S N

10 %

W

E

W

E

W

E

S October N

10 % November

S N

10 % December

S N

10 %

W

E

W

E

W

E

S

10 %

S

10 %

S

10 %

Figure 13: Monthly wind roses at Santiago showing the prevailing wind directions at 10m AGL. Directional bins are 22.5◦ wide, and the radial contour interval is 10%.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

17

Wind and Temperature

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

6.3 Diurnal Variability of Wind Speed
January Wind Speed (m/s) 6 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 April Wind Speed (m/s) 6 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 July Wind Speed (m/s) 6 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 6 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 6 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 August 6 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 6 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 May 6 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 February 6 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 June March

September

October Wind Speed (m/s) 6 5 4 3 2 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) 6 5 4 3 2 0

November 6 5 4 3 2 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) 0

December

4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT)

Figure 14: Diurnal cycle of wind speed at 10m AGL for each month of the year. The horizontal axis is in Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). Figure 16 shows the diurnal cycle of wind speed for each calendar month as a ‘12 X 24’ table.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

18

Wind and Temperature

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

6.4 Diurnal Variability of Temperature
January Temperature (oC) 35 30 25 20 15 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 April Temperature (oC) 35 30 25 20 15 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 July Temperature (oC) 35 30 25 20 15 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 35 30 25 20 15 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 35 30 25 20 15 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 August 35 30 25 20 15 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 35 30 25 20 15 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 May 35 30 25 20 15 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 February 35 30 25 20 15 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 June March

September

October Temperature (oC) 35 30 25 20 15 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) 35 30 25 20 15 0

November 35 30 25 20 15 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT) 0

December

4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day (ECT)

Figure 15: Diurnal cycle of temperature at 2m AGL for each month of the year. The horizontal axis is in Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). Figure 17 shows the diurnal cycle of temperature for each calendar month as a ‘12 X 24’ table.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

19

Wind and Temperature

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

6.5 Tabular Data
Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Avg
3.25 3.09 2.93 2.77 2.74 2.70 2.62 2.57 2.60 3.19 3.64 3.96 4.22 4.39 4.55 4.73 4.78 4.56 4.21 4.07 3.85 3.66 3.50 3.41 3.58

Feb
3.80 3.65 3.49 3.34 3.22 3.13 3.06 2.99 3.19 3.71 4.09 4.37 4.57 4.75 4.95 5.13 5.29 5.26 4.88 4.65 4.33 4.04 4.02 3.91 4.07

Mar
3.51 3.37 3.27 3.19 3.14 3.10 3.06 3.04 3.38 3.90 4.22 4.41 4.57 4.70 4.80 4.93 5.15 5.33 5.04 4.64 4.26 3.89 3.70 3.64 4.01

Apr
3.22 3.07 2.87 2.78 2.70 2.65 2.59 2.55 3.07 3.44 3.61 3.78 3.88 4.09 4.31 4.57 4.87 4.94 4.86 4.26 3.73 3.48 3.48 3.38 3.59

May
3.70 3.63 3.49 3.39 3.34 3.24 3.17 3.13 3.59 4.05 4.28 4.34 4.36 4.49 4.70 5.02 5.22 5.28 5.14 4.45 4.07 3.99 3.94 3.83 4.08

Jun
4.38 4.24 4.12 4.04 3.98 3.92 3.83 3.85 4.30 4.90 5.23 5.32 5.33 5.37 5.47 5.61 5.81 5.83 5.56 4.91 4.38 4.39 4.54 4.52 4.74

Jly
4.26 4.05 3.90 3.75 3.64 3.57 3.51 3.48 3.97 4.75 5.18 5.35 5.45 5.47 5.56 5.66 5.81 5.82 5.67 4.84 4.32 4.30 4.46 4.43 4.63

Aug Sep
3.97 3.78 3.64 3.52 3.44 3.35 3.28 3.22 3.64 4.35 4.76 4.93 5.02 5.08 5.16 5.30 5.48 5.59 5.33 4.65 3.99 4.05 4.18 4.13 4.33 3.53 3.36 3.25 3.14 3.06 3.00 2.97 2.89 3.13 3.77 4.16 4.29 4.32 4.33 4.45 4.61 4.95 5.16 5.03 4.43 3.73 3.68 3.80 3.76 3.87

Oct
3.22 3.04 2.88 2.74 2.67 2.58 2.52 2.43 2.66 3.25 3.65 3.88 3.98 4.09 4.19 4.32 4.60 4.68 4.37 4.01 3.50 3.32 3.40 3.40 3.47

Nov Dec
2.99 2.84 2.66 2.53 2.43 2.39 2.33 2.31 2.36 2.91 3.29 3.63 3.87 4.01 4.07 4.13 4.27 4.17 3.94 3.79 3.42 3.17 3.12 3.12 3.24 3.45 3.21 3.03 2.89 2.80 2.74 2.68 2.60 2.59 3.13 3.61 4.09 4.44 4.65 4.79 4.84 4.79 4.50 4.17 4.07 3.87 3.77 3.70 3.63 3.67

Avg
3.61 3.45 3.30 3.18 3.10 3.03 2.97 2.92 3.21 3.78 4.14 4.36 4.50 4.62 4.75 4.91 5.09 5.10 4.85 4.40 3.96 3.81 3.82 3.76 3.95

Hour of Day (ECT)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jly

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Avg

m/s 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

Wind Speed

Figure 16: Hourly-mean wind speed values at 10m AGL in m/s. The vertical axis is in Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). The overall mean in the bottom right corner is based on full years only. Time series graph of the diurnal variability for each month is shown in Figure 14.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

20

Wind and Temperature

Santiago For WorldWatch Institute ..................................................................................................................

Site Climate Variability Analysis

Jan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Avg
21.0 20.8 20.6 20.4 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.9 20.3 21.7 23.1 24.4 25.4 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.2 25.3 23.8 22.7 22.2 21.8 21.5 21.2 22.6

Feb
21.0 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.0 20.7 22.1 23.4 24.7 25.8 26.6 27.0 27.0 26.5 25.6 24.1 22.8 22.3 21.9 21.5 21.2 22.8

Mar
21.4 21.2 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.4 21.5 22.8 24.3 25.6 26.7 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.3 26.3 24.9 23.4 22.8 22.3 22.0 21.7 23.4

Apr
21.8 21.6 21.3 21.1 21.0 20.8 20.7 20.7 22.3 23.9 25.6 27.2 28.4 29.2 29.5 29.3 28.5 27.5 26.1 24.4 23.6 23.0 22.5 22.2 24.3

May
22.7 22.5 22.2 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.8 23.5 25.3 27.5 29.2 30.6 31.5 31.9 31.5 30.6 29.3 27.7 25.9 24.7 24.0 23.5 23.1 25.7

Jun
23.3 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.0 22.5 24.2 26.0 28.1 29.8 31.1 32.1 32.6 32.6 31.9 30.8 29.1 27.0 25.5 24.7 24.1 23.6 26.4

Jly
23.3 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.3 22.1 21.9 22.4 24.3 26.1 28.1 29.7 31.1 32.1 32.6 32.6 32.0 31.0 29.3 27.1 25.5 24.7 24.1 23.7 26.4

Aug Sep
23.6 23.3 23.1 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.2 22.4 24.3 26.2 28.3 30.1 31.4 32.4 32.9 33.0 32.4 31.3 29.4 27.2 25.8 25.1 24.5 24.0 26.7 23.7 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.6 22.4 22.3 22.2 23.8 25.8 28.1 30.0 31.5 32.5 33.0 33.0 32.4 31.0 28.9 26.8 25.8 25.1 24.6 24.1 26.6

Oct
23.2 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.3 22.1 22.0 21.9 23.0 24.9 26.8 28.5 29.8 30.7 31.1 31.0 30.4 29.2 27.4 25.8 24.9 24.3 23.9 23.5 25.6

Nov Dec
22.2 22.0 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.0 20.9 21.5 23.2 24.7 26.1 27.2 27.9 28.3 28.2 27.8 26.9 25.4 24.2 23.5 23.1 22.7 22.4 24.0 21.6 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.8 22.3 23.8 25.1 26.1 26.8 27.2 27.2 26.8 25.9 24.3 23.3 22.8 22.4 22.1 21.8 23.2

Avg
22.4 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.2 21.3 22.5 24.2 26.0 27.5 28.7 29.6 30.0 30.0 29.4 28.3 26.7 25.0 24.1 23.5 23.1 22.7 24.8

Hour of Day (ECT)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jly

Aug Sep

Oct
oC

Nov Dec

Avg

20

Temperature

25

30

35

Figure 17: Hourly-mean temperature values at 2m AGL in degrees Celsius. The vertical axis is in Eastern Caribbean Time (ECT). The overall mean in the bottom right corner is based on full years only. Time series graph of the diurnal variability for each month is shown in Figure 15.

c ￿ 2010 3TIER, Inc.

21

Wind Assessment
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8

e/<5N5=P! 5O65=15235! E4A! AE/<2! CE4C! C7=8125A! <199! 2/C! 85! ?=1::5:! 4A! C1?EC9@! 4A! CE5A5! ?71:59125A! 499/<M! &E1A! 342! /337=! B/=! 042@! =54A/2AT! :1BB1379C! C5==412P! 4! :5A1=5! C/! 346C7=5! CE5! 9/34C1/2A! <1CE! E1?E5AC!<12:!A655:P!45ACE5C13!:5A1?2!3/2A1:5=4C1/2!/=!5N52!A1069@!4!:5A1=5!C/!012101i5!<4c5!9/AA5AM! D/=! CE1A! =54A/2P! 543E! ?=1:! AQ74=5! <199! E4N5! 4! ;=/Z53C! ,4@/7C! %1A3/72C! D43C/=! ];,%D^! 466915:M! 'O65=15235!AE/<A!CE4C!CE5!C@61349!A64312?!B/=!4!<12:!B4=0!01?EC!499/<!466=/O104C59@!JK!C7=8125A!12! 4!VMb!c0!8@!VMb!c0!4=54M!&E1A!1A!4!;,%D!/B!bKkM!! 'N52!CE/7?E!CE1A!6=/Z53C!1A!:5A1?25:!C/!85!4!E1?E!95N59!4AA5AA052C!/B!=5A/7=35!/N5=!CE5!%/0121342! )5678913P!1C!1A!=53/?21A5:!CE4C!CE5!;,%D!04@!85!42!12B9752C149!64=C!/B!CE5!6=/Z53CM!e/<5N5=P!?1N52!CE5! :1BB5=12?! A1i5A! /B! CE5! 6942CA! B=/0! D1?7=5! LP! CE5! ;,%DA! <199! 2/C! 85! 4! 04Z/=! A/7=35! /B! A52A1C1N1C@! 3/064=5:!<1CE!CE5!6=/Z53C!A1i12?M!*!8=15B!3/064=1A/2!/B!:1BB5=52C!6=/Z53C!A1i5A!1A!E1?E91?EC5:!94C5=!12! CE5!=56/=CM! *99! 6/<5=! 3493794C1/2A! AE499! 85! 65=B/=05:! /2! CE5! 84A1A! /B! [?=/AA\! 6/<5=! 3493794C1/2AM! &E5! ?=/AA! 6/<5=! 1A! 3493794C5:! B=/0! 0/:5995:! <12:! A655:AP! 6=5AA7=5P! C5065=4C7=5! 42:! CE5! 0427B43C7=5=fA! 6/<5=! 37=N5M! $/! 6/<5=! N4975A! 12397:5! 9/AA5A! B=/0! A/7=35A! A73E! 4A! 5953C=1349! 9/AA5AP! <4c5! 9/AA5AP! 4N41948191C@!9/AA5AP!C7=8795235!12C52A1C@!9/AA5A!5C3M!! &E5!7A5!/B!4!:5C5=0121AC13!6/<5=!37=N5!]4A!:5A3=185:!12!CE5!6=5N1/7A!6/12C^!E4A!C</!04Z/=!6=/8950A! CE4C!9101C!CE5!4337=43@!/B!<12:!A655:!C/!6/<5=!/7C67C!3/2N5=A1/2T! o 'N52!1B!CE5!<12:!1A!0/:5995:!65=B53C9@P!CE5!6/<5=!B=/0!4!<12:!6=/Z53C!:/5A!2/C!65=B53C9@!4:E5=5! C/!CE5!85E4N1/7=!/B!4!:5C5=0121AC13!=4C12?!37=N5P!A55!! D1?7=5!GM! &E5!05A/A3495!2705=1349!<54CE5=!6=5:13C1/2!]$";^!0/:59A!E4N5!4!C52:523@!C/!6=/:735!<12:! A655:!C105!A5=15A!CE4C!4=5!5O35AA1N59@!A0//CE!4C!C52X0127C5!=5A/97C1/2M!!
!

o

Normalised Power Generation []

! Observations --- Manufacturer’s Power Curve

!
! D1?7=5!GM!*3C749!/8A5=N4C1/2A!3/064=5:!<1CE!CE5!0427B43C7=5=lA!=4C12?!37=N5!B/=!42!5O40695!C7=8125M!*!:5C5=0121AC13!/25XC/X /25!6/<5=!37=N5!<199!25N5=!85!4895!C/!04C3E!CE5!N4=14235!B=/0!4!=549!<12:!6=/Z53C!<1CE/7C!N5=@!E1?E!=5A/97C1/2P!65=XC7=8125! <12:!0/:59912?!d!5N52!CE52!CE5!1AA75A!<1CE!0/:59912?!C506/=49!N4=14C1/2!AC199!5O1ACM!
Wind Speed [m/s]

H/6@=1?EC!JKLL!I!G&#')M!*99!=1?ECA!=5A5=N5:M!!

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!

9

D/=!CE1A!6=/Z53C!4!A53/2:!6/<5=!0/:59!<4A!7A5:P!4!AC4C1AC13499@!3/==53C5:!6/<5=!/7C67C!CE4C!85CC5=! 0/:59A! CE5! N4=14C1/2M! &E5! 410! /B! CE5! .C4C1AC1349! H/==53C1/2! C/! +7C67C! B=/0! 4! )53/=:! 'OC52A1/2! ].H+)'^! 05CE/:/9/?@! 1A! C/! 4:Z7AC! CE5! 6/<5=! /7C67C! C105! A5=15A! A73E! CE4C! CE5! N4=14C1/2! 85C<552! 4:Z4352C!6/12CA!1A!AC4C1AC13499@!85CC5=!0/:5995:M!! .H+)'! <4A! :5N59/65:! 8@! G&#')! 42:! /=1?12499@! 6=/6/A5:! 12! 4! 6465=! 6=5A52C5:! 4C! CE5! #'''! ;/<5=! '2?1255=12?! ./315C@! (525=49! >55C12?! 12! JKKWMG! &E5! .H+)'! 6=/35AA! E4A! 8552! 7A5:! 12! 4! 27085=! /B! 94=?5! 12C5?=4C1/2! AC7:15A! 12397:12?! CE5! 6=5N1/7A9@! 052C1/25:! "5AC5=2! "12:! 42:! ./94=! #2C5?=4C1/2! .C7:@M! &E5=5!1A!4!3954=!255:!B/=!A/05!c12:!/B!AC4C1AC1349!3/==53C1/2!A1235!=5491C@!6=/N5A!CE4C!CE5=5!1A!2/C!4! :5C5=0121AC13! =594C1/2AE16! 85C<552! <12:! A655:! 42:! 6/<5=! /7C67CM! &E5A5! :5N14C1/2A! 07AC! 85! 433/72C5:!B/=!C/!6=/N1:5!4!=5491AC13!6/<5=!/7C67C!C105!A5=15AM!&E5!:5N14C1/2A!B=/0!CE5!=4C12?!37=N5! 4=5!347A5:!8@!4!27085=!/B!B43C/=AT! ! o "12:! A655:A! 43=/AA! 4! <12:! B4=0! 4=5! 2/C! 5Q749M! gA12?! <12:! A655:! 4C! 4! A12?95! 6/12C! ]<E5CE5=! B/=534AC!/=!/8A5=N5:^!C/!=56=5A52C!CE5!<12:A!43=/AA!4!B4=0!<199!2/C!=56=5A52C!CE5!:1BB5=5235A!12! <12:! A655:! 43=/AA! CE5! B4=0! 42:! <199! CE5=5B/=5! B419! C/! =56=5A52C! CE5! 6/<5=! B973C74C1/2A! 43=/AA! CE5!B4=0M! ! o "12:! A655:A! CE4C! 4=5! 4N5=4?5:! 43=/AA! CE5! B4=0! <199! 2/C! :5C5=0121AC13499@! =56=5A52C! CE5! 6/<5=! /7C67CM!*!=4C12?!37=N5!1A!2/C!4!91254=!=594C1/2AE16Y!1C!1A!2/C!5N52!4!3/2C127/7A!=594C1/2AE16!]:75!C/! 37CX/7C!5N52CA^M!&E7AP!42!4N5=4?5!/B!<12:!A655:A!43=/AA!CE5!B4=0!<199!4337=4C59@!=56=5A52C!CE5! 4N5=4?5! <12:! A655:! 4BB53C12?! 543E! C7=8125P! 87C! <199! 2/C! :5C5=0121AC13499@! =56=5A52C! CE5! 6/<5=! /7C67C!B=/0!CE5!52C1=5!B4=0M!D/=!5O40695!1B!CE5=5!4=5!C</!C7=8125AP!/25!5O65=152312?!<12:A!/B! LK!0jA!42:!CE5!/CE5=!5O65=152312?!<12:A!/B!JK!0jAP!CE5!4N5=4?5!<12:!A655:!1A!Lb!0jA!d!@5C!B/=! 0/AC! 7C191C@XA3495! C7=8125AP! C</! C7=8125A! 5O65=152312?! Lb! 0jA! <12:A! <199! 6=/:735! A1?21B1342C9@! 0/=5!6/<5=!CE42!/25!C7=8125!5O65=152312?!LK!0jA!<12:A!42:!/25!C7=8125!5O65=152312?!JK!0jA! <12:AM! ! o &105X4N5=4?5:! <12:! A655:A! 4C! 4! A12?95! 9/34C1/2! :/! 2/C! :5C5=0121AC13499@! =56=5A52C! CE5! C105X 4N5=4?5:!6/<5=!/7C67CM!.10194=9@!C/!CE5!<12:!A655:!8512?!4N5=4?5:!43=/AA!4!B4=0P!<12:!A655:A! CE4C! 4=5! 4N5=4?5:! CE=/7?E! C105! <199! 49A/! B419! C/! :5C5=0121AC13499@! =56=5A52C! CE5! 6/<5=! /7C67C! B=/0!4!A12?95!C7=8125!B/=!CE5!A405!=54A/2A!4A!AC4C5:!48/N5M! &E5! .H+)'! 6=/35AA! 7A5A! /8A5=N5:! AC4C1AC1349! :5N14C1/2A! B=/0! 4! 0542! N4975! C/! 3=54C5! 6=/848191C@! :52A1C@! B723C1/2A! /B! :5N14C1/2! B=/0! A/05! 352C=49! 6/12CM! +=1?12499@! CE5! 6=/35AA! <4A! :5A1?25:! C/! 85! /65=4C5:!/2!543E!C7=8125!9/34C1/2!C/!6=/:735!4!C105!A5=15A!/B!6/<5=!/7C67C!:4C4!B/=!543E!C7=8125P! <E13E! 3/79:! CE52! 85! 4??=5?4C5:! C/! A78X6=/Z53C! /=! 52C1=5! 6=/Z53C! /7C67CM! e/<5N5=P! C=@12?! C/! =72! 6=/848191AC13!6=/35AA5A!/2!042@!C7=8125A!43=/AA!CE5!52C1=5!4=54!8512?!0/:5995:P!543E!B/=!LK!@54=A!4C! C52X0127C5! =5A/97C1/2! </79:! 85! 42! 5OC=5059@! C105! 3/2A7012?! 6=/35AAY! 0/=5/N5=! 1C! </79:! =5Q71=5! CE5!C7=8125!9/34C1/2A!C/!85!466=/O104C5:!42:!CE5!12:1N1:749!C7=8125!9/34C1/2A!</79:!85!4!6/C52C149!

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! HM! "M! ;/CC5=P! eM! *M! (19! 42:! _M! >3H44P! ["12:! ;/<5=! %4C4! B/=! (=1:! #2C5?=4C1/2! .C7:15A\P! ;=/3M! JKKW! #'''! ;/<5=! '2?1255=12?!./315C@!(525=49!>55C12?P!&4064P!D,P!g.*M!;465=!$/M!KW(>KaKaP!_72M!JKKW!

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10

A/7=35! :1A67C5M! &E7AP! CE5! .H+)'! 6=/35AA! <4A! 0/:1B15:! C/! A10794C5! 543E! ?=1:! 6/12C! B=/0! CE5! $";! 0/:59!12AC54:!/B!543E!C7=8125P!<E5=5!543E!?=1:!6/12C!=56=5A52C5:!4!397AC5=!/B!C7=8125A!]12!CE1A!34A5! JK! C7=8125A^M! &E1A! <4A! 43E15N5:! 8@! 079C1695! A406912?! B=/0! CE5! /=1?1249! .H+)'! 6=/848191C@! :52A1C@! B723C1/2A! ];%DA^P! /235! B/=! 543E! C7=8125! 65=! ?=1:! 6/12CM! &E5! =5XA406912?! 6=/35AA! 1A! 34==15:! /7C! C52! 01991/2!C105A!C/!3=54C5!25<!;%DAM!! • .H+)'! C4c5A! CE5! [=4C5:\! 6/<5=! 4A! 42! 1267C! 42:! 0/:1B15A! 1C! A73E! CE4C! CE5! /N5=499! 3E42?5! 3E4=43C5=1AC13A!0/=5!39/A59@!=5A50895!CE/A5!/8A5=N5:!12!=5491C@M! .H+)'!E4A!8552!N491:4C5:!12!64AC!6=/Z53CA!4?412AC!=549!<12:!6=/Z53C!:4C4M!#C!<4A!B/72:!CE4C!.H+)'! 6=/:735:! 4! 0/=5! =5491AC13! 3E42?5! E1AC/?=40! CE42! CE5! 7A5! /B! 4! =4C12?! 37=N5! 49/25! <1CE/7C! 42@! 466=5314895!9/AA!/B!4337=43@!12!0/:5912?!CE5!:17=249!3@395M!&E1A!04c5A!1C!A71C4895!B/=!6=/:7312?!:4C4! B/=!12C5?=4C1/2!AC7:15AM! ! !

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11

G #2C52:5:!gA5!/B!CE1A!)56/=C!42:!%4C4!
#2!/=:5=!C/!72:5=AC42:!CE5!N4975!/B!CE1A!=56/=C!42:!:4C4P!1C!1A!106/=C42C!C/!72:5=AC42:!CE5!12C52:5:!7A5! B/=! CE1A! c12:! /B! 12B/=04C1/2M! &E5! 0/:59912?! <4A! 65=B/=05:! 4C! VMbc0! =5A/97C1/2! /N5=! CE5! %/0121342! )5678913M!&E1A!1A!A71C4895!C/!6=/N1:5!8=/4:XA3495!6942212?!12B/=04C1/2M!! • • &E5!A64C149!=5A/97C1/2!1A!A7BB13152C!B/=!1:52C1B134C1/2!/B!A71C4895!=5?1/2A!B/=!:5N59/6052CM!! &E5!=5?1/2X84A5:!0/:59912?!42:!(5/?=46E13!#2B/=04C1/2!.@AC50!](#.^!:4C4!94@5=A!342!6=/N1:5!7A5B79! 12B/=04C1/2!B/=!:5C5=01212?!6/C52C149!C=42A01AA1/2!3/==1:/=A!! &E5! :4C4! 342! 49A/! 85! 7A5:! B/=! 1:52C1B@12?! CE5! 879c! 525=?@! 6/C52C149! B=/0! 4! =5?1/2P! 8/CE! B/=! C=42A01AA1/2! 6942212?P! 87C! 49A/! B/=! 6942212?! /B! CE5! ?525=4C1/2! 01O! 12! CE5! %/0121342! )5678913! 42:! 3493794C12?!6/C52C149!<12:!6525C=4C1/2M! D12499@P!CE5!5BB53C!/B!?5/?=46E13!:1A65=A1/2!/2!?525=4C1/2!6=/B195A!43=/AA!CE5!%/0121342!)5678913!342! 85!12N5AC1?4C5:M!&E1A!342!4BB53C!CE5!3E4=43C5=1AC13A!/B!CE5!?525=4C1/2M! ! o (5/?=46E13! :1A65=A1/2! 342! 4BB53C! CE5! 6/<5=! E1AC/?=40! ]1M5MP! 91c59@! 0121070! 42:! 04O1070! /7C67C^M! ! o )5:735! CE5! 04O1070! 3E42?5A! 12! 6/<5=! ]=406A^! d! 8/CE! 12! C5=0A! /B! 9/349! AE/=CXC5=0! 6/<5=! B973C74C1/2A!4A!<599!4A!CE5!%/0121342!)5678913X<1:5! 525=?@! A7669@Y! 7A5B79! B/=! :5C5=01212?! CE5! =5Q71=5052CA!/B!CE5!A@AC50!12!/=:5=!C/!E42:95!CE5!6/C52C149!3E42?5A!12!<12:!525=?@M!D/=534ACA! </79:! 12! C7=2! ?=54C9@! 123=54A5! CE5! 346431C@! /B! CE5! A@AC50! C/! 6=/43C1N59@! 6=564=5! B/=! CE5! <12:! 6/<5=!/2!CE5!?=1:M!

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12

V "12:!>/:59912?!*66=/43E!
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G!4=3XA53/2:!.)&>!

bX94@5=!A/19!:1BB7A1N1C@!

&E5!B/99/<12?!B1?7=5A!E4N5!8552!3=54C5:!B=/0!CE5!(#.!:4C4!6=/N1:5:!C/!"/=9:<4C3E!#2AC1C7C5!4A!64=C!/B! CE5! :591N5=4895A! B/=! CE1A! 6=/Z53CM! &E5! B1?7=5A! AE/<! CE5! 0/:59912?! =5A79CA! /N5=! CE5! %/0121342! )5678913M! D1?7=5! V! AE/<A! CE5! 9/2?XC5=0! 0542! <12:! A655:! 4C! aK0P! D1?7=5! b! AE/<A! CE5! 9/2?XC5=0! 0542! ?=/AA! [346431C@!B43C/=\!4C!aK0M!H46431C@!B43C/=!1A!4!054A7=5!/B!CE5!40/72C!/B!6/<5=!?525=4C5:!]/=!6/C52C1499@! ?525=4C5:! 12! CE5! 34A5! /B! ?=/AA! 346431C@! B43C/=^! 3/064=5:! <1CE! CE5! 12AC4995:! 346431C@! /B! CE5! 6942CM! D/=! 5O40695P!1B!4!6=/Z53C!E4:!GKK>"!/B!C7=8125A!42:!1C!?525=4C5:!LJK>"!/2!4N5=4?5P!CE5!346431C@!B43C/=! </79:!85!LJKjGKK!m!VKkM!!

V

!.c404=/3cP!"M!HM!5C!49M![*!:5A3=16C1/2!/B!CE5!*:N4235:!)5A54=3E!")D!h5=A1/2!J\P!$H*)!&53EM!$/C5P!$H*)j&$X VSaU.&)P!g.*P!JKKbM!

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13

!
D1?7=5!VM!;9/C!/B!CE5!9/2?XC5=0!0542!<12:!A655:!4C!aK0!48/N5!CE5!A7=B435!95N59M!&E5!:4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M!! ! !

!
D1?7=5!bM!;9/C!/B!CE5!9/2?XC5=0!0542!346431C@!B43C/=!4C!aK0!48/N5!CE5!A7=B435!95N59M!&E5!:4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M!

H/6@=1?EC!JKLL!I!G&#')M!*99!=1?ECA!=5A5=N5:M!!

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14

&E5!A64C149!=5A/97C1/2!/B!CE5!0/:59!<4A!A73E!CE4C!CE5!:/0412!<4A!A691C!12C/!VMbc0!8@!VMbc0!?=1:!3599A! 3/N5=12?!CE5!%/0121342!)5678913M!D=/0!CE1AP!CE5!?=1:!6/12CA!CE4C!<5=5!523/064AA5:!8@!543E!=5?1/2!<5=5! 1:52C1B15:!B/=!B7=CE5=!3493794C1/2A!6=5A52C5:!12!CE1A!=56/=CM!&E5!=5?1/2A!<5=5!1:52C1B15:!8@!"/=9:<4C3E! #2AC1C7C5P!4A!65=!D1?7=5!L!42:!:1A694@5:!/2!D1?7=5!S!d!543E!=5?1/2fA!?=1:!6/12CA!E1?E91?EC5:!12!4!:1BB5=52C! 3/9/7=M!

!
D1?7=5!SM!(=1:!6/12CA!12!543E!=5?1/2M!&E5!;75=C/!;94C4!6/12CA!4=5!12!=5:P!CE5!>/2C13=1AC1!6/12CA!4=5!12!8975P!CE5!;5:5=2495A!6/12CA! 4=5!12!?=552P!CE5!F421!6/12CA!4=5!12!@599/<P!CE5!,4!*9C4?=4314!6/12CA!4=5!12!04?52C4!42:!CE5!.40424!6/12CA!4=5!12!3@42M!!

*A! 342! 85! A552! 12! D1?7=5! SP! CE5! 27085=! /B! ?=1:! 6/12CA! 12! 543E! =5?1/2! 1A! 2/C! 5Q749M! &4895! J! AE/<A! CE5! 27085=!/B!?=1:!6/12CA!12!543E!=5?1/2M!!&4895!J!49A/!AE/<A!CE5!27085=!/B!?=1:!6/12CA!48/N5!346431C@!B43C/=! ]HD^! CE=5AE/9:AM! &E5! CE=5AE/9:A! <5=5! 3E/A52! 4A! JKkP! Jbk! 42:! GKk! 12! 3/2A79C4C1/2! <1CE! "/=9:<4C3E! #2AC1C7C5M!$/C5!CE4C!CE5!=5A79CA!:1A37AA5:!12!CE1A!=56/=C!4=5!?=/AA!346431C@!B43C/=P!2/C!25C!346431C@!B43C/=! 42:!?=/AA!346431C@!B43C/=A!4=5!E1?E5=!CE42!25C!346431C@!B43C/=AM!H/2N5=A59@P!CE5!0/:59912?!65=B/=05:!B/=! CE1A!AC7:@!:/5A!2/C!346C7=5!CE5!A04995=!6E52/0524!CE4C!342!AC=/2?9@!4BB53C!CE5!<54CE5=!4C!4!A1C5M!!#C!1A! 91c59@!CE4C!B/=!543E!?=1:!6/12C!CE5=5!</79:!85!A/05!4=54A!<1CE!E1?E5=!346431C@!B43C/=A!42:!A/05!4=54A! <1CE! 9/<5=! 346431C@! B43C/=AM! H4=5B79! C7=8125! 94@/7C! </79:! 410! C/! C4c5! 4:N42C4?5! /B! CE5! E1?E5=! <12:! 9/34C1/2A!/BBA5CC12?!CE5!?=/AA!C/!25C!9/AA!C/!A/05!5OC52CM!

H/6@=1?EC!JKLL!I!G&#')M!*99!=1?ECA!=5A5=N5:M!!

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15

! &E5!%/0121342!)5678913!1A!4!:5N59/612?!3/72C=@!CE4C!E4A!5O65=15235:!=461:!?=/<CE!B/=!A/05!65=1/:A!12! CE5!64AC!B5<!@54=AP!87C!91c5!0/AC!:5N59/612?!24C1/2A!E4A!42!72:5=:5N59/65:!12B=4AC=73C7=5M!*!c5@!64=C!/B! CE1A!12B=4AC=73C7=5!1A!CE5!5953C=131C@!12B=4AC=73C7=5M!"1CE/7C!4:N4235052CA!12!CE1A!A53C/=P!1C!<199!3/2C1275! C/! 85! 4! 8/CC95253c! C/! /2?/12?! 53/2/013! ?=/<CEM! e1?E! 6=135! B759AP! 3/2AC=4125:! C=42A01AA1/2! 42:! E1?E! :1AC=187C1/2!9/AA5A!E4N5!95:!C/!E1?E!5953C=131C@!C4=1BBAM!*C!6=5A52C!CE5!6/<5=!A@AC50!1A!:/0124C5:!8@!B/AA19! B759! ?525=4C1/2P! <E13E! 1A! A76695052C5:! 8@! E@:=/5953C=13! ?525=4C1/2M! )525<4895! 525=?@! 12AC4994C1/2A! /BB5=! 42! 4CC=43C1N5! A/7=35! /B! 12:1?52/7A! 525=?@P! <E13E! 342! 49A/! 85! :5N59/65:! 12! 4! 0/=5! :1AC=187C5:! B4AE1/2M! e/<5N5=P! 4C! 6=5A52C! CE5! %/0121342! )5678913! 1A! 2/C! A552! 4A! 42! 54A@! 04=c5C! B/=! <12:! :5N59/6052CM!! ./05!/B!CE5!4A653CA!=5A6/2A1895!B/=!:1A3/7=4?12?!<12:!:5N59/6052C!12!CE5!%/0121342!)5678913!4=5!CE5! A0499! A1i5! /B! CE5! 04=c5CP! CE5! :1BB1379C@! 12! ?5CC12?! 525=?@! 12C/! /CE5=! 04=c5CAP! 943c! /B! B72:12?! B/=! 94=?5X A3495! :5N59/6052C! 42:! 42! 72AC4895! 6/<5=! A53C/=M! e/<5N5=P! CE5=5! 4=5! 49A/! A/05! :5B121C5! 8525B1CA! C/! <12:! 6=/Z53C! :5N59/6052CP! A73E! 4A! 525=?@! A537=1C@P! 943c! /B! 49C5=24C1N5! 24C1N5! A/7=35A! /B! 525=?@! ]5M?M! 3/49P! ?4AP! /19^P! CE5! 48191C@! /B! CE5! 5O1AC12?! A@AC50! C/! 123/=6/=4C5! N4=14895! 525=?@P! CE5! 255:! B/=! =461:! :5N59/6052CP! CE5! :5A1=5! C/! 85! B/99/<12?! =525<4895! 525=?@! C=52:AP! CE5! C/7=1A0! 8=/7?EC! 8@! 4! [?=552\! 104?5P!A766/=C!B=/0!B/=51?2!12N5AC/=AM!! !"#$%! CE5=5! 4=5! /CE5=! C53E21349! 3E49952?5A! C/! 123/=6/=4C12?! <12:! 6/<5=! /2! CE5! 5953C=131C@! ?=1:! B/=! CE5! %/0121342! )5678913M! ! e/<5N5=P! 0/AC! /B! CE5A5! 3E49952?5A! 4=5! 721N5=A49! 42:! 4=5! 8512?! 4::=5AA5:P! 42:! A/05<E4C!01C1?4C5:P!8@!C7=8125!0427B43C7=5=A!42:!6/<5=!A@AC50A!=5A54=3E5=AM!

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16

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&E1A!4249@A1A!/B!CE5!6/<5=!/7C67CA!12397:5A!:14?=40A!AE/<12?!879c!525=?@!6/C52C149P!4!3/064=1A/2!/B!CE5! 4N5=4?5!A54A/249!3@395!42:!:17=249!3@395!B/=!543E!=5?1/2!42:!CE5!N4=148191C@!B/=!A10794C5:!<12:!6942CA!B/=! :1BB5=52C!9/34C1/2A!<1CE12!543E!=5?1/2M!*A!64=C!/B!CE5!A3/612?!B/=!CE1A!6=/Z53CP!543E!/B!CE5!6=/6/A5:!4=54A! 49A/!E4:!4!A6531B13!A1i12?/B!<12:!346431C@!6=/N1:5:M!&E5A5!342!85!A552!12!D1?7=5!LM!!*A!AE/<2!12! &4895!J! A/05! /B! CE5! =5?1/2AP! A6531B13499@! ,4! *9C4?=4314P! .40424! 42:! ;75=C/! ;94C4! C/! 4! 95AA5=! 5OC52CP! E4:! B5<! 9/34C1/2A!CE4C!<5=5!3/2A1:5=5:!C/!85!91c59@!C/!85!A71C4895!B/=!<12:!:5N59/6052CM!!D/=!,4!*9C4?=4314!42:! .40424! d! CE5! [=56=5A52C4C1N5\! 9/34C1/2! <4A! 3E/A52! C/! 85! CE5! 85AC! 9/34C1/2! 12! /=:5=! C/! E/65B799@! =56=5A52C!9/34C1/2A!CE4C!04@!85!B54A1895!12!CE5A5!=5?1/2AM!D/=!;75=C/!;94C4!/29@!A1C5A!<1CE!?=54C5=!CE42! JKk!346431C@!B43C/=!<5=5!7A5:!12!:5C5=01212?!CE5![=5A6=5A52C4C1N5\!A1C5!d!4?412!C=@12?!C/!814A!C/<4=:A! CE5!0/=5!N4974895!4=54AM!!D/=!>/2C13=1AC1P!;5:5=2495A!42:!F421!CE5=5!<5=5!2/!=5AC=13C1/2A!69435:!/2!CE5! A1C5A!CE4C!3/72C5:!C/<4=:A!CE5!=56=5A52C4C1N5!A1C5A!42:!CE5@!<5=5!A1069@!3E/A52!C/!85AC!=56=5A52C!CE5! 4N5=4?5!<12:!3/2:1C1/2A!12!CE5!=5?1/2M!

bML

F79c!'25=?@!;/C52C149!

&E5!B/99/<12?!B1?7=5A!]42:!CE5!=5AC!/B!CE1A!=56/=C^!B/37A!/2!CE5!A6531B13!=5?1/2A!CE4C!<5=5!1:52C1B15:!B/=! B7=CE5=!AC7:@M!$/C5!CE4C!543E!AQ74=5!/2!CE5!B/99/<12?!104?5A!3/==5A6/2:A!C/!4!?=1:!6/12C!B=/0!D1?7=5!SM!! &E5!B72:4052C49!:=1N5=!/B!525=?@!?525=4C1/2!B=/0!4!<12:!C7=8125!1A!/B!3/7=A5!<12:!A655:!d!42:!CE1A!1A! AE/<2!12!D1?7=5!WM!

Mean Wind Speed [m/s]

!
D1?7=5!WM!>542!<12:!A655:A!B/=!543E!=5?1/2!1:52C1B15:!12!CE1A!AC7:@M!&E5!:4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M!

D=/0!CE5!<12:!A655:!C105!A5=15AP!CE5!6/<5=!N4975A!3/79:!85!3493794C5:M!&E5!6/<5=!:4C4!:1A694@5:!12!CE1A! A53C1/2!/B!CE5!=56/=C!<199!85!6=5A52C5:!B=/0!CE5!.H+)'!6/<5=!:4C4!d!5O694125:!12!.53C1/2!J!d!;=/Z53C! *66=/43E! 42:! *AA706C1/2AM! e/<5N5=P! 5N52! CE1A! A12?95! c12:! /B! :4C4! 342! 85! :1A694@5:! 12! 4! 27085=! /B! :1BB5=52C!B/=0AM!D1?7=5!a!AE/<A!CE5!0542![346431C@!B43C/=\M!H46431C@!B43C/=!1A!4!054A7=5!/B!CE5!40/72C! /B!6/<5=!?525=4C5:!]/=!6/C52C1499@!?525=4C5:!12!CE1A!34A5^!3/064=5:!<1CE!CE5!12AC4995:!346431C@!/B!CE5! 6942CM!D/=!5O40695P!1B!4!6=/Z53C!E4:!52/7?E!C7=8125A!C/!3=54C5!4!GKK>"!6942C!42:!1C!?525=4C5:!LJK>"!

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17

/2!4N5=4?5P!CE5!346431C@!B43C/=!</79:!85!LJKjGKK!m!VKkM!

Mean Capacity Factor [% of Installed Capacity]

!
D1?7=5!aM!>542!346431C@!B43C/=!B/=!543E!=5?1/2!1:52C1B15:!12!CE1A!AC7:@M!&E5!:4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M!

$/C5! CE4C! 1C! 1A! N5=@! 106/=C42C! C/! 72:5=AC42:! CE4C! CE5! =594C1/2AE16! 85C<552! <12:! A655:! 42:! 6/<5=! /7C67C!1A!2/C!91254=P!4A!AE/<2!8@!CE5!0427B43C7=5=fA!6/<5=!37=N5!12!! D1?7=5!GM!&E1A!0542A!CE4C!CE5!A405!4N5=4?5!<12:!A655:!:/5A!2/C!2535AA4=19@!12:134C5!CE5!A405!4N5=4?5! 6/<5=!/7C67CM!&/!C4c5!42!5O4??5=4C5:!34A5!AC7:@!d!104?125!4!9/34C1/2!CE4C!E4:!<12:!A655:A!/B!GK0jA! E49B!CE5!C105!42:!K0jA!B/=!CE5!/CE5=!E49BM!&E5!0542!<12:!A655:!</79:!85!Lb0jAP!87C!0/AC!12:7AC=149X A3495! C7=8125A! :/2fC! AC4=C! /65=4C12?! 72C19! GXV! 0jA! 42:! 37CX/7C! ]AC/6! 6=/:7312?! 6/<5=^! 4C! Jb0jAM! &E1A! 0542A!CE4C!CE5=5!</79:!85!2/!?525=4C1/2!B=/0!CE1A!9/34C1/2M!+2!CE5!/CE5=!E42:!1B!CE5!A1C5!5O65=15235:! Lb0jA! <12:A! 499! CE5! C105P! CE5! 6/<5=! /7C67C! </79:! CE5/=5C13499@! 85! 04O1070! 6/<5=! /7C67C! /2! 0/AC! 12:7AC=149XA3495!C7=8125AP!=5A79C12?!12!4!]?=/AA^!346431C@!B43C/=!/B!LKKkM!! &E5A5! C</! 5OC=505! 5O40695A! AE/<! CE5! 106/=C4235! /B! 3/2A1:5=12?! CE5! 6/<5=! N4975A! =4CE5=! CE42! CE5! <12:!A655:!N4975A!d!5N52!CE/7?E!CE5!6/<5=!N4975A!4=5!/29@!12!?=/AA!C5=0AM!*!3/064=1A/2!/B!CE5!0542! <12:!A655:A!42:!0542!346431C@!B43C/=A!B/=!CE5!=5?1/2A!12!CE5!%/0121342!)5678913!AE/<!CE4C!5N52!<1CE! CE5! A405! 9/2?XC5=0! 0542! <12:! A655:P! CE5! 346431C@! B43C/=A! 342! 85! 4A! 073E! 4A! LJ! 65=352C4?5! 6/12CA! :1BB5=52C!d!?525=4C12?!490/AC!C<135!4A!073E!6/<5=!<1CE!CE5!A405!4N5=4?5!<12:!A655:M! D1?7=5!`!42:!D1?7=5!LK!AE/<!69/CA!/B!CE5!:4C4!9101C5:!C/!346431C@!B43C/=A!?=54C5=!CE42!/=!5Q749!C/!Gbk! 42:!VKk!=5A653C1N59@M!!&E5!27085=!/B!CE5A5!6/12CA!12!B/72:!12!&4895!JM!

H/6@=1?EC!JKLL!I!G&#')M!*99!=1?ECA!=5A5=N5:M!!

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18

Mean Capacity Factor [% of Installed Capacity]

!
D1?7=5! `M! >542! ?=/AA! 346431C@! B43C/=! B/=! 543E! =5?1/2! 1:52C1B15:! 12! CE1A! AC7:@P! 9101C5:! C/! ?=1:! 6/12CA! <E5=5! CE5! ?=/AA! 346431C@! B43C/=!1A!?=54C5=!CE42!/=!5Q749!C/!JKkM!&E5!:4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M! !

Mean Capacity Factor [% of Installed Capacity]

!
D1?7=5!LKM!>542!?=/AA!346431C@!B43C/=!B/=!543E!=5?1/2!1:52C1B15:!12!CE1A!AC7:@P!9101C5:!C/!?=1:!6/12CA!<E5=5!CE5!?=/AA!346431C@! B43C/=!1A!?=54C5=!CE42!/=!5Q749!C/!JbkM!&E5!:4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M!

*A! 342! 85! A552! 12! D1?7=5! `! 42:! D1?7=5! LKP! CE5! =5?1/2A! CE4C! <5=5! 1:52C1B15:! 12! CE5! <5AC5=2! 4=54! /B! CE5! %/0121342!)5678913!AE/<!?=54C5=!6=/01A5!B/=!<12:!:5N59/6052C!CE42!CE/A5!12!CE5!54ACM!#C!07AC!85!c56C! 12!012:!CE4C!CE1A!0/:59912?!5BB/=C!1A!:5A1?25:!C/!1:52C1B@!=5?1/2A!d!2/C!A6531B13!9/34C1/2A!42:!CE5=5!04@! 85!A/05!9/34C1/2A!49/2?!CE5!54AC!3/4AC!CE4C!05=1C!<12:!:5N59/6052C!4A!<599M!&E5!C</!=5?1/2A!/B!*i74! 42:! F4=4E/24! CE4C! <5=5! 3/2A1:5=5:P! 87C! 2/C! A5953C5:! B/=! CE1A! AC7:@! 8/CE! <5=5! 0/:5995:! 4A! E4N12?! ?=54C5=!<12:!=5A/7=35A!CE42!CE5!54AC5=2!=5?1/2A!d!E/<5N5=P!CE5!39/A5!6=/O101C@!/B!CE5!=5?1/2A!B/99/<12?! CE4C!466=/43E!04@!E4N5!0542C!CE4C!CE5!N4=148191C@!/B!CE5!<54CE5=!<4A!2/C!4:5Q74C59@!A0//CE5:!43=/AA!

H/6@=1?EC!JKLL!I!G&#')M!*99!=1?ECA!=5A5=N5:M!!

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19

CE5!6/<5=!?=1:M! &E1A!AC7:@!E4A!6=104=19@!7A5:!4!;=/Z53C!,4@/7C!%1A3/72C!D43C/=!];,%D^!/B!bKkM!e/<5N5=P!:1BB5=52C!;,%DA! <199! =5A79C! 12! :1BB5=52C! 6/<5=! 6/C52C149A! B/=! ?1N52! =5?1/2AM! &E=55! :1BB5=52C! 95N59A! /B! ;,%D! <5=5! C5AC5:M! D1?7=5!LLP!D1?7=5!LJ!42:!D1?7=5!LG!AE/<!CE5!:1BB5=5235!12!0542!6/<5=!/7C67C!B/=!4!;,%D!/B!SKkP!bKk! 42:!VKk!=5A653C1N59@M!!
Mean Generation from 16 V90 3.0MW Turbines [MW]

!
D1?7=5!LLM!>542!?525=4C1/2!B/=!4!6942C!<1CE!4!;,%D!/B!SKk!X!=5:7312?!CE5!27085=!/B!C7=8125A!65=!?=1:!6/12C!B=/0!VK!C/!LSM!&E5! :4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M!
Mean Generation from 20 V90 3.0MW Turbines [MW]

!
D1?7=5!LJM!>542!?525=4C1/2!B/=!4!6942C!<1CE!4!;,%D!/B!bKk!X!=5:7312?!CE5!27085=!/B!C7=8125A!65=!?=1:!6/12C!B=/0!VK!C/!JKM!&E5! :4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M!

H/6@=1?EC!JKLL!I!G&#')M!*99!=1?ECA!=5A5=N5:M!!

G&#')!!X!!"12:!;/<5=!>/:59912?!42:!*249@A1A!/B!.10794C5:!(525=4C1/2!

20

Mean Generation from 24 V90 3.0MW Turbines [MW]

!
D1?7=5!LGM!>542!?525=4C1/2!B/=!4!6942C!<1CE!4!;,%D!/B!VKk!X!=5:7312?!CE5!27085=!/B!C7=8125A!65=!?=1:!6/12C!B=/0!VK!C/!LSM!&E5! :4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M!

&E1A!=56/=C!C4c5A!4!;,%D!/B!bKk!4A!CE5!84A5!34A5!42:!7295AA!/CE5=<1A5!AC4C5:!499!6/<5=!3493794C1/2A!B=/0! CE1A!6/12C!B/=<4=:!4=5!:1A694@5:!12!C5=0A!/B!8512?!4895!C/!B1C!JK!C7=8125A!C/!543E!?=1:!6/12CM!gA12?!CE1A! 4AA706C1/2!42:!9101C12?!CE5!A1C5A!C/!9/34C1/2A!<1CE!4!?=/AA!346431C@!B43C/=!/B!GKk!1C!1A!6/AA1895!C/!:5=1N5! CE5!?=/AA!6/C52C149!B/=!<12:!:5N59/6052C!4A!AE/<2!12!D1?7=5!LVM!!
Mean Generation from 20 V90 3.0MW Turbines [MW]

!

D1?7=5!LVM!>542!?525=4C1/2!B/=!4!6942C!<1CE!4!;,%D!/B!bKk!X!9101C5:!C/!A1C5A!<1CE!4!346431C@!B43C/=!?=54C5=!CE42!/=!5Q749!C/!VKkM! &E5!:4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M!

&E5! Wa! A1C5A! AE/<2! 12! D1?7=5! LV! =56=5A52C! 4! 6/C52C149! 12AC4994C1/2! /B! /N5=! V!("! /B! C7=8125! 346431C@M! e/<5N5=P!1C!1A!N5=@!106/=C42C!C/!72:5=AC42:!CE4C!CE5!B19C5=12?!/B!A1C5A!<4A!/29@!65=B/=05:!4C!4!N5=@!E1?E! 95N59M!!$/!433/72C!E4A!8552!04:5!B/=!942:!4N41948191C@!]/CE5=!CE42!CE5!466=/O104C5!=5?1/2A!1:52C1B15:!8@! CE5!"/=9:<4C3E!#2AC1C7C5!12! D1?7=5!L^M!!#C!1A!5O653C5:!CE4C!A/05!/B!CE5!4=54!3/N5=5:!1A!2/C!4N4194895!B/=!

H/6@=1?EC!JKLL!I!G&#')M!*99!=1?ECA!=5A5=N5:M!!

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21

<12:!6=/Z53C!:5N59/6052C!]5M?M!7=842!942:A3465AP!379C7=499@!42:!52N1=/2052C499@!A52A1C1N5!4=54AP!5C3M^M! &E5=5! 1A! 49A/! 91c59@! C/! 85! =7??5:! C5==412! 12! A/05! /B! CE5! 4=54A! 1:52C1B15:M! )7??5:! C5==412! 1A! :1BB1379C! B/=! 3/2AC=73C1/2! /B! <12:! 6=/Z53CA! 42:! 1A! 42/CE5=! 9101C12?! B43C/=! 12! CE5! 6/C52C149! CE4C! E4A! 8552! 1:52C1B15:M! >/=5/N5=P! 1C! AE/79:! 85! 72:5=AC//:! CE4C! 5OC=505! <12:! :5N59/6052C! </79:! 6/C52C1499@! =5A79C! 12! A1?21B1342C! <4c5! 5BB53CAM! &E7AP! 12! =5491C@! A7335AAB79! 6=/Z53CA! </79:! E4N5! A6435! 85C<552! CE50P! 4?412! 5910124C12?!A/05!/B!CE5!12:52C1B15:!9/34C1/2AM!e/<5N5=P!<1CE!CE5!=1?EC!12352C1N5AP!:5N59/6052C!04@!85! B54A1895! 12! /CE5=! 9/34C1/2A! <1CE12! CE1A! AC7:@! B//C6=12CM! &E5=5! 4=5! 49A/! A71C4895! 4=54A! B/=! <12:! :5N59/6052C!CE4C!<5=5!/7CA1:5!CE5!A3/65!/B!CE1A!</=c!4A!342!85!A552!B=/0!D1?7=5!bM! #C!AE/79:!49A/!85!2/C5:!CE4C!CE5!=5A79CA!4=5!84A5:!67=59@!/2!=4<!0/:59!:4C4M!!&E5!24C7=5!/B!CE1A!AC7:@! 0542C!CE4C!CE5=5!E4A!8552!2/!3/==53C1/2!C/![/2A1C5\!:4C4!C/!?=/72:!C=7CE!42:!C725!CE5!0/:59!B/=!85CC5=! 85E4N1/7=!4C!64=C13794=!9/34C1/2AM!!&E1A!0542A!CE4C!CE5!0/:59!=5A79CA!<199!2/C!85!4A!4337=4C5!4A!3/79:!85! 43E15N5:! <1CE! 0/=5! :5C4195:! 0/:59912?M! ./05! 4=54A! 04@! E4N5! 72=5491AC13499@! E1?E! <12:! A655:A! 42:! CE5=5B/=5!04@!85!E1?E91?EC5:!4A!4!N14895!A1C5!<E52!1C!1A!=5499@!/29@!4!04=?1249!A1C5M!!.10194=9@P!CE5!0/:59! 04@! 01AA! A/05! A0499XA3495! 5BB53CA! d! 5A6531499@! 12! 3/4AC49! =5?1/2A! d! CE4C! 342! 85! 106/=C42C! :=1N5=A! 12! :5C5=01212?!CE5!A7335AA!/B!4!<12:!6=/Z53CM! &/! 3/0695C5! CE1A! </=c! CE5=5! E4N5! 8552! 4! 27085=! /B! 4AA706C1/2A! 04:5! 42:! CE5A5! /N5=9//c! A/05! A5=1/7A! 3/2A1:5=4C1/2A! ]6942212?! 466=/N49AP! 942:! /<25=! 4?=55052CP! 942:! 4N41948191C@P! C53E21349! 1AA75A! <1CE! 12C5?=4C1/2! 42:! C=42A01AA1/2P! B12423149! N148191C@! 5C3M^M! &/! ?5C! 42! 4337=4C5! 5AC104C1/2! /B! 6/C52C149! CE5A5!4AA706C1/2A!255:!C/!85!394=1B15:!42:!3/79:!43C!C/!=5:735!CE5!27085=!/B!N14895!A1C5A!3/2A1:5=489@M! e/<5N5=P!<1CE!:75!3/2A1:5=4C1/2!/B!499!/B!CE5!9101C12?!B43C/=A!<E13E!</79:!=5:735!CE5!/N5=499!27085=!/B! 4N4194895!A1C5A!<1CE!?//:!346431C@!B43C/=P!CE5=5!</79:!AC199!85!4!27085=!/B!A1C5A!CE4C!4=5!N5=@!4CC=43C1N5!C/! <12:!:5N59/6052C!12!CE5!%/0121342!)5678913M!

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&E5!N4=148191C@!/B!<12:!6/<5=!/7C67C!B/=!94=?5XA3495!<12:!6/<5=!6525C=4C1/2!342!3=54C5!3E49952?5A!B/=! 6/<5=!A@AC50!42:!C=42A01AA1/2!25C</=c!/65=4C/=AM!&E5!N4=14895!<12:!6/<5=!07AC!85!123/=6/=4C5:!12C/! 4!A@AC50!CE4C!E4A!8552!/6C101i5:!B/=!B799@!A3E5:794895!3/2N52C1/249!6/<5=!6942CAM!!

bMJML .54A/249!h4=14C1/2!
&E5!A54A/249!N4=14C1/2!B/=!CE5!%/0121342!)5678913!1A!A1?21B1342C!d!4A!<1CE!042@!/CE5=!C=/61349!9/34C1/2AM! &E1A! 1A! C@61349! /B! 0/2A//249! 9/34C1/2A! <E5=5! <54CE5=! 5N52CA! C52:! C/! 85! E54N19@! 12B975235:! 8@! 9/2?X 94AC12?! E1?E! 42:! 9/<! 6=5AA7=5! i/25AP! <E13E! /337=! =594C1N59@! 3/2A1AC52C9@M! ! ! "E4C! 1A! 6/C52C1499@! 0/=5! 12C5=5AC12?! 12! CE5! 3/2C5OC! /B! <12:! 12C5?=4C1/2P! 1A! CE4C! CE5! 3/2:1C1/2A! :/! 2/C! 46654=! C/! 85! 3/2A1AC52C! 43=/AA! CE5! 3/72C=@! 4A! AE/<2! 12! D1?7=5! LbM! ;5:5=2495A! 42:! F421! 8/CE! E4N5! C</! 6=/2/7235:! <12:@! A54A/2A!d!E/<5N5=P!>/2C13=1AC1!42:!;75=C/!;94C4!4=5!073E!0/=5!:=1N52!8@!CE5!_725X*7?7AC!<12:A!CE42! 8@! CE5! %535085=X_4274=@! <12:AM! >/=5/N5=P! CE5! =5N5=A5! A550A! C/! 85! C=75! B/=! .40424! 42:! C/! 4! 95AA5=! 5OC52C! ,4! *9C4?=4314M! "E52! 3/2A1:5=5:! 4C! CE1A! =5?1/249! A3495P! CE5! A54A/249! 85E4N1/7=! 1A! 49A/! =594C1N59@! 3/2A1AC52C! B=/0! @54=! C/! @54=! 4A! AE/<2! 12! D1?7=5! LSM! e/<5N5=P! CE5! _4274=@! <12:A! 342! 85! :1A69435:! C/! 94C5=!12!CE5!@54=!954:12?!C/!<54CE5=!5N52CA!A73E!4A!5O65=15235:!12!>4=3E!JKKVM!&E5A5!B43C/=A!342!954:!C/! :1BB1379C@!12!6/<5=!A@AC50!6942212?!42:!9/2?XC5=0!0412C524235!A3E5:7912?!:7=12?!CE5A5!0/2CEAM!!

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22

!
D1?7=5! LbM! >542! 0/2CE9@! ?525=4C1/2! 4N5=4?5:! /N5=! 543E! =5?1/2! B=/0! A1C5A! CE4C! </79:! =56=5A52C! 4! 6=/Z53C! <1CE! LKK>"! /B! 12AC4995:!346431C@M!&E5!:4C4!1A!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!CE5!52C1=5!65=1/:M! !

!
D1?7=5!LSM!>542!0/2CE9@!?525=4C1/2!4N5=4?5:!/N5=!&''!=5?1/2AM!&E1A!C105!CE5!:4C4!1A!A691C!76!@54=!8@!@54=M!

H/6@=1?EC!JKLL!I!G&#')M!*99!=1?ECA!=5A5=N5:M!!

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23

bMJMJ %17=249!h4=14C1/2!
"E52!3/2A1:5=12?!E1?E!6525C=4C1/2A!/B!<12:!6/<5=!CE5!:419@!N4=14C1/2!342!694@!4!A1?21B1342C!=/95!12!CE5! 7A5B7925AA!/B!<12:M!#B!CE5!<12:!/337=A!:7=12?!CE5!9/<!9/4:!E/7=A!]1M5M!:7=12?!CE5!21?EC^!CE5=5!1A!=594C1N59@! 9/<!346431C@!N4975!12!CE5!<12:M!! &E5! 6=104=@! A/7=35! /B! 6/<5=! ?525=4C1/2! 12! CE5! %/0121342! )5678913! 1A! B/AA19! B759! ?525=4C1/2M! &E5! ?525=4C1/2! 01O! B/=! CE5! %/0121342! )5678913! 46654=A! =54A/2489@! <599! 8494235:! 85C<552! 84A5! 9/4:! 42:! B4AC!=5A6/2A5!721CA!d!5A6531499@!<1CE!CE5!12397A1/2!/B!466=/O104C59@!Lbk!E@:=/6/<5=Y!72B/=C724C59@P!:75! C/!4!9/C!/B!A@AC50!AC=5AA5A!CE5!=5A6/2A5!/B!CE5!721CA!1A!2/C!4A!?=54C!4A!:5A1=4895M!$/25XCE5X95AAP!CE5=5!1A! A/05!B95O18191C@!42:!CE1A!=5:735A!CE5!255:!B/=!346431C@!N4975!B=/0!CE5!<12:!?525=4C1/2!721CAM!e/<5N5=P! CE5! %/0121342! )5678913! E4A! 4! A0499! 6/<5=! A@AC50P! <E13E! 1A! 6=5A52C9@! 3/2253C5:! <1CE! e41C1! CE=/7?E! 4! A12?95P! =594C1N59@! A0499! 12C5=3/2253C1/2bM! $51CE5=! e41C1! 2/=! CE5! %/0121342! )5678913! 6/<5=! A@AC50A! 4=5! =/87AC! 42:! 3/2A5Q752C9@! B973C74C1/2A! 12! ?525=4C1/2! CE4C! </79:! 85! 12A1?21B1342C! /2! 4! 94=?5=! A@AC50! 342! 347A5!A@AC50!:1AC7=84235A!/2!CE5!%/0121342!)5678913!?=1:M!&E5=5B/=5P!C/!85!4895!C/!C4c5!4:N42C4?5!/B! CE5! 24C7=49! <12:! =5A/7=35AP! CE=/7?E! A1?21B1342C! <12:! 6525C=4C1/2P! 1C! 1A! 106/=C42C! C/! 72:5=AC42:! CE5! :17=249!3@395!/B!CE5!<12:!42:!1CA!3/2A5Q752C!9/4:!3/==594C1/2M!!D1?7=5!LW!AE/<A!CE5!:17=249!N4=14C1/2!/B! CE5!<12:!6/<5=!B/=!543E!=5?1/2P!84A5:!/2!CE5!A70!/B!499!6/12CA!12!CE4C!=5?1/2M!!

!
D1?7=5!LWM!%17=249!3@395!/B!?525=4C1/2!B/=!CE5!0542!6/<5=!B=/0!543E!=5?1/2M!&E5!C105A!4=5!499!12!(>&M!!

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!*2/CE5=!12C5=3/2253C1/2!1A!8512?!3/2A1:5=5:!4C!CE1A!AC4?5P!<E13E!3/79:!43C!C/!A1?21B1342C9@!AC=52?CE52!CE5!6/<5=! ?=1:A!CE=/7?E!CE5!H4=188542M!

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24

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