TO: Interested Parties FROM: Aaron Strauss, DCCC Director of Targeting and Data RE: IL-10 DCCC IVR Results DATE: October

15, 2012
Brad Schneider holds a slim lead in his bid to unseat first-term Representative Bob Dold in Illinois’ 10th district. The fundamentals in this race are strong for Schneider. In the head-to-head, Schneider leads Dold 44% to 43%. The within-the-margin lead comes as Dold finds his favorability ratings underwater: 42% of the district holds a favorable opinion of him, while 46% holds an unfavorable opinion. With only three weeks left until Election Day, Dold finds himself in dark territory for an incumbent – support in the low 40s and disliked more than liked by the electorate.

Schneider Leads Dold by 1
50%

DCCC Poll October 14
44% 43%

40%

30%

20%

13%
10%

0%

Schneider

Dold

Undecided

Brad Schneider, by contrast, is both known and liked by voters. A full 63% of respondents can rate him, and a majority of those voters (35% of all voters) view him favorably. The district is friendly territory for Democrats. Under the new lines for Illinois’ 10th, President Obama received over 63% of the two-party vote in 2008. Our poll shows the President leading Romney by 12 points (54% - 42%), paving a path for Schneider to increase his lead. In sum, Brad Schneider is well-positioned to pick up Illinois’ 10th district for the Democrats come November.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 451 likely 2012 voters conducted October 14, 2012, in Illinois’ 10 Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 4.6%.
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