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TO: Interested Parties FROM: Aaron Strauss, DCCC Director of Targeting and Data RE: IL-13 DCCC IVR Results DATE: October

15, 2012
David Gill leads Rodney Davis in his bid to fill the open seat in Illinois’ 13th district. Publicly available polling shows that Gill has held this lead since early August. In the trial heat, Gill outpaces Davis by six points (43%37%). This is the same sixpoint lead that Gill held on August 8th in a campaign poll (36%-30%); as expected, there are now fewer undecided voters. Beyond trailing in the headto-head, Davis’s favorability ratings are underwater: only 25% of the district have a favorable opinion, whereas 30% hold an unfavorable opinion. A full 44% of the district has never heard of Rodney Davis.

Gill Leads Davis by 6
DCCC Poll October 11&13
50%

43%
40%

+6 37%

30%

20%

13%

10%

0% Gill Davis Undecided

David Gill is both better known and better liked. Over two-thirds (68%) of voters hold an opinion of him, and his favorable ratings outpace his unfavorables (35% - 32%). The district is friendly territory for Democrats. Under the new lines for Illinois’ 13th, President Obama received over 55% of the two-party vote in 2008 and leads Romney 48%-43% in this survey. In sum, David Gill is in good position to secure Illinois’ 13th district for the Democrats come November.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 458 likely 2012 voters conducted October 11 and 13, 2012, in Illinois’ 13 Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 4.6%.
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