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October 15, 2012 TO: FROM: RE: Valadao Campaign Team Bob Moore, Moore Information California Congressional

District 21: Survey Update

With less than four weeks to go before the election, David Valadao is positioned to be elected to Congress from Californias 21st Congressional District. Valadao leads Democrat John Hernandez on the ballot, 53-33% with 11% undecided and 3% saying they will vote for neither candidate. Valadaos lead is largely due to the fact that he is more well-known and popular; fully 68% of district voters are aware of him and 38% have a favorable and 11% an unfavorable opinion of him. Valadao enjoys a favorable image among Democrats (31% favorable, 15% unfavorable), as well as Republicans (50/6%) and DTS/others (34/9%). By contrast, just 47% are aware of Hernandez and 17% have a favorable and 5% an unfavorable opinion of him. Valadao has also been helped by his more vigorous campaign. So far, 52% recall seeing, reading or hearing something about Valadao, versus only 20% who recall something about Hernandez. It is clear that the first week of Valadaos substantial TV ad buy has had a major impact. Leading recollections about Valadao include themes from the ad, such as farmer/worked on a farm/profarmer, businessman/pro-business, will protect water rights and family man. Looking ahead, Hernandez faces a steep uphill climb in confronting Valadao on issues. Two examples include: District voters prefer the GOP Medicare plan over Democrats interpretation of the plan, and There is majority opposition to high-speed rail, which Hernandez supports and Valadao opposes.
The survey was conducted October 8-9, 2012 by telephone, using live interviewers, among a representative sample of 400 likely voters in the district. The potential sampling error is plus or minus 5% at the 95% confidence level.

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