October 15, 2012 TO: FROM: RE: Valadao Campaign Team Bob Moore, Moore Information California Congressional District 21: Survey Update

With less than four weeks to go before the election, David Valadao is positioned to be elected to Congress from California’s 21st Congressional District. — Valadao leads Democrat John Hernandez on the ballot, 53-33% with 11% undecided and 3% saying they will vote for neither candidate. Valadao’s lead is largely due to the fact that he is more well-known and popular; fully 68% of district voters are aware of him and 38% have a favorable and 11% an unfavorable opinion of him. Valadao enjoys a favorable image among Democrats (31% favorable, 15% unfavorable), as well as Republicans (50/6%) and DTS/others (34/9%). By contrast, just 47% are aware of Hernandez and 17% have a favorable and 5% an unfavorable opinion of him. Valadao has also been helped by his more vigorous campaign. — So far, 52% recall seeing, reading or hearing something about Valadao, versus only 20% who recall something about Hernandez. — It is clear that the first week of Valadao’s substantial TV ad buy has had a major impact. Leading recollections about Valadao include themes from the ad, such as “farmer/worked on a farm/profarmer,” “businessman/pro-business,” “will protect water rights” and “family man.” Looking ahead, Hernandez faces a steep uphill climb in confronting Valadao on issues. Two examples include: — District voters prefer the GOP Medicare plan over Democrats’ interpretation of the plan, and — There is majority opposition to high-speed rail, which Hernandez supports and Valadao opposes.
The survey was conducted October 8-9, 2012 by telephone, using live interviewers, among a representative sample of 400 likely voters in the district. The potential sampling error is plus or minus 5% at the 95% confidence level.

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