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IL-17 POS for Bobby Schilling & NRCC (Oct. 2012)

IL-17 POS for Bobby Schilling & NRCC (Oct. 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Oct 16, 2012
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01/23/2013

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MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: RE: DATE: INTERESTED PARTIES GLEN BOLGER/JIM HOBART KEY FINDINGS – ILLINOIS CD 17 SURVEY OCTOBER 16, 2012

Methodology Public Opinion Strategies completed a survey of 400 likely voters in Illinois’ newly drawn 7h Congressional District October 14-15, 2012 on behalf of the Schilling for Congress Campaign and the NRCC. Three hundred twenty (320) interviews were conducted with landline respondents and 80 interviews were conducted with cell phone respondents. The survey has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. Key Findings 1. Bobby Schilling enjoys a solid image in the district. Congressman Bobby Schilling has an image of 45% favorable/34% unfavorable. Schilling is extremely popular with Republicans (81% fav/3% unfav) and his image with Independents mirrors his image with the overall electorate (46% fav/34% unfav). 2. Cheri Bustos’ image is underwater. Cheri Bustos’ introduction to voters in this district has not been successful, as her image currently sits at 34% fav/38% unfav. Bustos’ image with Independents (29% fav/47% unfav) is particularly problematic for her. 3. Mitt Romney trails President Obama by six points in the district. Looking at the Presidential ballot, 44% of voters back Mitt Romney while 50% are Barack Obama supporters. The President won this district with 60% of the vote in 2008, so he is running well behind his previous margin. 4. Schilling is over 50% on the Congressional ballot and leads by seven points. Running well ahead of Mitt Romney in the district, Schilling has a solid lead on Cheri Bustos (51% Schilling/44% Bustos). Only four percent of voters are undecided. Support for Schilling is driven by overwhelming support from Republicans (94% Schilling/3% Bustos) as well as a twenty-six point lead with Independents (58% Schilling/32% Bustos).

IL CD 17 Key Findings Memo Page two of two

5.

Schilling also has a financial edge on Bustos. In the most recent quarter, Bobby Schilling raised $617,000 dollars, while Bustos’ campaign brought in $488,000. Looking at cash on hand, Schilling has $840,000 to spend in the final weeks of the race, compared to $660,000 for Bustos.

The Bottom Line With three weeks left in the campaign, Bobby Schilling is well positioned to win re-election. Schilling leads by seven points on the ballot and is strongly supported by both Republicans and Independents. Schilling’s impressive numbers with Independents coupled with his campaign’s financial advantage will make it very difficult for Bustos to come back and win this race.

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