TO: Interested Parties FROM: Aaron Strauss, DCCC Director of Targeting and Data RE: NE-02 DCCC IVR Results DATE: October

15, 2012
Democratic challenger John Ewing is in a statistical tie with Rep. Lee Terry in the campaign for Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, according to our recent survey. In the horserace, Terry has a within-themargin lead over Ewing (48% - 44%). Representative Terry has only a mediocre image in the district, as he is liked by a similar number of voters (51%) as he is disliked by (46%). In contrast, John Ewing has a strong image, with 47% of the district rating him favorably and only 27% saying the opposite.
John Ewing And Lee Terry Are Statistically Tied
60%

50%

48% 44%

40%

30%

Terry, as a long-time Representative, is almost universally known. Ewing’s name 10% 5% recognition continues to climb but has not quite reached Terry’s; it stands at 74%. A 0% Ewing Terry Undecided very positive sign for the Democratic challenger is that among voters who know both candidates, Ewing leads 50% to 47%.

20%

2%
Other

Though Obama won this district in 2008 (even under the new lines), the President trails in this poll by 12 points (41% to 53%). This deficit—larger than the congressional—demonstrates Ewing’s crossover appeal. In sum, Ewing is within striking distance against a weak incumbent in a marginal district.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 525 likely 2012 voters conducted October 14, 2012, in Nebraska’s 2 Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 4.3%.
nd