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National Economic Indicators, The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. October 2012

National Economic Indicators, The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. October 2012

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N ti l E i I di t National Economic Indicators

October 9, 2012
T bl f C t t Table of Contents


GDP Page
Table: Real Gross Domestic Product ............................3
Real Gross Domestic Product 4
Labor Market Page
Nonfarm Payroll Employment ................................. 25, 26
Civilian Unemployment Rate........................................27
Real Gross Domestic Product ........................................4
Households
Retail Sales ....................................................................5
Personal Income and Expenditures ................................6
Personal Saving ............................................................7
p y
Civilian Labor Force ..................................................... 28
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index ................................... 29
Average Hourly Earnings ............................................. 30
Employment Cost Indexes ........................................... 31
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business ......................... 32
Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks ..........................8
Single-Family Home Sales ....................................... 9, 10
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits ........... 11
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits.............. 12
Investment
Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business ............................. 33
Inflation
Table: Gauges of Inflation ........................................... 34
Expenditure Price Indexes ..................................... 35, 36
Consumer Price Indexes .............................................. 37
Investment
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment .......................... 13
Real Investment in Equipment and Software ................ 14
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures ............... 15
Real Private Construction Put in Place ......................... 16
T d
Producer Price Indexes ................................................ 38
Commodity Price Indexes ............................................ 39
Crude Oil Prices ..................................................... 40, 41
TIPS Inflation Compensation........................................ 42
Monetary Policy
Trade
Balance of International Trade...................................... 17
Manufacturing
Industrial Production Index, Manufacturing ................... 18
Capacity Utilization Rate, Manufacturing......................19
y y
Monetary Policy Instruments ........................................ 43
Real Federal Funds Rate ............................................. 44
Expected Federal Funds Rate ...................................... 45
Federal Reserve System Assets .................................. 46
Monetary Base ............................................................. 47
Capacity Utilization Rate, Manufacturing......................19
ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index ............................... 20
Table: ISM Business Survey Indexes .......................... 21
Manufacturers' New Orders .......................................... 22
Core Capital Goods ...................................................... 23
Inventory/Sales Ratios ..................................................24
M2 ................................................................................ 48
Financial Markets
Money Market Rates .................................................... 49
Capital Market Rates .................................................... 50
Treasury Yield Curve ................................................... 51
y




Risk Premium ............................................................... 52
Exchange Rate ............................................................ 53


Real Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
2011 2012
[ ]
Gross Domestic Product 2.5 1.3 4.1 2.0 1.3
Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.4 1.5
Nonresidential Fixed Investment 14.5 19.0 9.5 7.5 3.6
Structures 35.2 20.7 11.5 12.9 0.6
Equipment & Software 7.8 18.3 8.8 5.4 4.8
R id ti l Fi d I t t 4 1 1 4 12 1 20 5 8 5 Residential Fixed Investment 4.1 1.4 12.1 20.5 8.5
Exports of Goods & Services 4.1 6.1 1.4 4.4 5.3
Imports of Goods & Services 0.1 4.7 4.9 3.1 2.8
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.4
-3
Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross
Investment
-0.8 -2.9 -2.2 -0.7
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories 27.5 -4.3 70.5 56.9 41.4
Net Exports of Goods &Services 399 6 397 9 418 0 415 5 407 4
3
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Net Exports of Goods & Services -399.6 -397.9 -418.0 -415.5 -407.4
R l G D ti P d t
7
8
7
8
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
3
4
5
6
3
4
5
6
Q2
1.3%
-1
0
1
2
-1
0
1
2
6
-5
-4
-3
-2
6
-5
-4
-3
-2
10
-9
-8
-7
-6
10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-10 -10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
R t il S l
10
12
10
12
12 Month % Change
Retail Sales
4
6
8
10
4
6
8
10
August
4.7%
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
4
-6
-4
-2
-6
-4
-2
Month over Month % Change
-12
-10
-8
-12
-10
-8
J un. J ul. Aug.
Total -0.7 0.6 0.9
x Gasoline -0.4 0.7 0.3
g
-14 -14
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
5
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
P l I & E dit
6 6
Personal Income & Expenditures
12 Month % Change
4 4
Real Personal
Income
August
0
2
0
2
Real Personal
Consumption Expenditure
August
-2
0
-2
0
-4 -4
J un. J ul. Aug.
Income 0.2 0.1 -0.3
Month over Month % Change
-6 -6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Expenditures -0.1 0.4 0.1
6
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
P l S i R t
9 9
Personal Saving Rate
Percent of disposable personal income
7
8
7
8
5
6
5
6
August
3 7%
3
4
3
4
3.7%
2
3
2
3
1 1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
7
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
S l f A t bil & Li ht T k
18 18
Autos and Light Trucks
Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks
Millions of Vehicles
14
16
14
16
September
14.88 mil.
12 12
8
10
8
10
Light Trucks
6 6
Autos
4 4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
8
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
E i ti Si l F il H S l
6.5 6.5
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Millions of Homes
5.5
6.0
5.5
6.0
4.5
5.0
4.5
5.0
August
4 .3 mil.
35
4.0
35
4.0
A erage Ann al E isting Home Sales
3.0
3.5
3.0
3.5
Average Annual Existing Home Sales:
1990 through 1999
2.5 2.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
9
Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics
N Si l F il H S l
1.2 1.2
New Single-Family Home Sales
Millions of Homes
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.1
07
0.8
0.9
07
0.8
0.9
Average Annual NewHome Sales:1990 through 1999
05
0.6
0.7
05
0.6
0.7
Average Annual New Home Sales:1990 through 1999
03
0.4
0.5
03
0.4
0.5
August
0.37 mil.
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Millions of Starts & Permits
2.0 2.0
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.2
1.4
1.2
1.4
1990 - 1999 Average Housing Starts
0.8
1.0
0.8
1.0
Starts
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.6
Permits
August
0.2 0.2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
11
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
P i t M lti F il H i St t & P it Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Millions of Starts & Permits
0.7 0.7
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
Permits
0.4 0.4
August
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
1990 – 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts
g
0.1 0.1
Starts
0.0 0.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
12
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
R l N id ti l Fi d I t t
20
25
20
25
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
5
10
15
20
5
10
15
20
Q2
3.6%
10
-5
0
5
10
-5
0
5
-20
-15
-10
-20
-15
-10
-35
-30
-25
-35
-30
-25
-40 -40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
13
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
R l I t t i E i t & S ft
25
30
25
30
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Real Investment in Equipment & Software
10
15
20
10
15
20
Q2
4 8%
-5
0
5
-5
0
5
4.8%
-20
-15
-10
-20
-15
-10
-35
-30
-25
-35
-30
-25
-40 -40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
14
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
R l I t t i N id ti l St t
35
40
35
40
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures
15
20
25
30
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
-5
0
5
10
Q2
0.6%
25
-20
-15
-10
-5
25
-20
-15
-10
-5
-40
-35
-30
-25
-40
-35
-30
-25
-45 -45
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
15
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
R l P i t N id ti l C t ti P t I Pl
360 360
2005$, Billions
Real Private Nonresidential Construction Put In Place
320
340
320
340
280
300
280
300
240
260
240
260
Twelve-Month Moving Average
August
200
220
200
220
180 180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Notes: Deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures.
16
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
B l f I t ti l T d
25
-20
25
-20
Current $, Billions
Balance of International Trade
-35
-30
-25
-35
-30
-25
-45
-40
35
-45
-40
35
J uly
-$42 bil.
-55
-50
-55
-50
Twelve-Month Moving Average
-65
-60
-65
-60
g g
-70 -70
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
17
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
I d t i l P d ti I d M f t i
105 105
2007 =100
Industrial Production Index: Manufacturing
100 100
August
94.1
90
95
90
95
94.1
85 85
80 80
75 75
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
18
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
C it Utili ti R t M f t i
80
82
80
82
Percent
Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing
76
78
80
76
78
80
August
77%
72
74
76
72
74
76
68
70
68
70
64
66
64
66
62 62
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
19
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
ISM P h i M I d
65 65
Diffusion Index, percent
ISM: Purchasing Managers Index
55
60
55
60
September
50 50
49.6
40
45
40
45
35 35
30 30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
20
Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
ISM B i S I d ISM: Business Survey Indexes
MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
Aug. Sep. Aug. Sep.
Purchasing Managers Index 49.6 51.5 NonManufacturing Index 53.7 55.1
Production 47.2 49.5 Business Activity 55.6 59.9
New Orders 47.1 52.3 New Orders 53.7 57.7
Employment 51.6 54.7 Employment 53.8 51.1 poy e t 5 6 5 poy e t 53 8 5
Supplier Deliveries 49.3 50.3 Supplier Deliveries 51.5 51.5
Inventories 53.0 50.5 Inventories 52.5 48.5
Prices 54.0 58.0 Prices 64.3 68.1
Backlog of Orders 42.5 44.0 Backlog of Orders 50.5 48.0
NewExport Orders 47 0 48 5 NewExport Orders 52 0 50 5
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firmactivity
New Export Orders 47.0 48.5 New Export Orders 52.0 50.5
Imports 49.0 49.5 Imports 49.5 50.0
21
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
M f t ’ N O d
480
500
480
500
Current $, Billions
August
Manufacturers’ New Orders
440
460
480
440
460
480
400
420
440
400
420
440
Twelve-Month
Moving Average
360
380
360
380
320
340
320
340
300 300
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
22
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
C C it l G d
75 75
Current $, Billions
New Orders
Core Capital Goods
70 70
August
60
65
60
65
Shipments
55 55
45
50
45
50
45 45
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.
23
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
B i I t /S l R ti Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
1.7 1.7
Percent
1.6 1.6
Retailers
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.5
Total Business
J uly
1.3 1.3
Total Business
Manufacturers
1.2 1.2
Manufacturers
1.1 1.1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
24
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
N f P ll E l t
138
139
138
139
Millions of Persons
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
136
137
138
136
137
138
134
135
134
135
September
134 mil.
131
132
133
131
132
133
129
130
129
130
128 128
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
25
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
N f P ll E l t
400
500
400
500
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
100
200
300
400
100
200
300
400
Q3
Avg.
-100
0
100
-100
0
100
-400
-300
-200
-400
-300
-200
Sep. 114
Aug 142
Monthly Change
-700
-600
-500
-700
-600
-500
Aug. 142
J ul. 181
J un. 45
May 87
-800 -800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
26
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Ci ili U l t R t
10.5
11.0
10.5
11.0
Percent
Civilian Unemployment Rate
9.0
9.5
10.0
9.0
9.5
10.0
September
FOMC Forecast
7.5
8.0
8.5
7.5
8.0
8.5
7.8%
FOMC Forecast
6.0
6.5
7.0
6.0
6.5
7.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
4.5
5.0
5.5
4.0 4.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the September 12-13meeting.
27
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
Ci ili L b F R ti
66
67
66
67
Percent of Population
Labor Force
Civilian Labor Force Ratios
64
65
66
64
65
66
62
63
64
62
63
64
Employed
60
61
60
61
September
58
59
58
59
57 57
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
28
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
A t W kl H I d
102 102
Index, 2007 =100
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index
98
100
98
100
96 96
September
Quarterly Average
92
94
92
94
90 90
88 88
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
29
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
A H l E i
4.0 4.0
12 Month % Change
Average Hourly Earnings
Monthly % Change
3.5 3.5
Sep. 0.3%
Aug. 0.0%
J ul. 0.1%
J un. 0.3%
2.5
3.0
2.5
3.0
2.0 2.0
September
1.8%
1.5 1.5
1.0 1.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
30
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
E l t C t I d Employment Cost Index
4.0 4.0
Year over Year % Change
3.5 3.5
Wages and Salaries
Benefits Cost
2.5
3.0
2.5
3.0
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5
Total Compensation
Q2.2012 YoY % Change
Total Comp. 1.7%
Benefits Cost 2.1%
Wages & Salaries 1.7%
Q2
1.0 1.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
31
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
L b P d ti it N f B i
7 7
Year over Year % Change
Quarterly Change
at Annual Rate
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business
5
6
5
6
at Annual Rate
Q2 12 2.2%
Q1 12 -0.5%
Q4 11 2.8%
Q3 11 0.6%
3
4
3
4
Post-War Average
1
2
1
2 Q2
1.2%
-1
0
-1
0
-2 -2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
32
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
U it L b C t N f B i
4
5
4
5
Year over Year % Change
Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business
2
3
4
2
3
4
Q2
1
0
1
1
0
1
0.9%
-3
-2
-1
-3
-2
-1
Quarterly Change
at Annual Rate
-5
-4
-5
-4
Alternate Series
Q2 12 1.5%
Q1 12 6.4%
Q4 11 -3.3%
Q3 11 -0.6%
-6 -6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index.
33
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
G f I fl ti
Expenditure Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Gauges of Inflation
July Aug. YoY %
Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.4 5.3 1.5
Core (excludes Food* and Energy) 0.7 1.3 1.6
Consumer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
July Aug. YoY %
All Items 0.6 7.5 1.7
Core (excludes Food and Energy) 1.1 0.6 1.9
Producer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
July Aug. YoY %
Finished Goods 3.2 21.9 2.0
Core (excludes Food and Energy) 5.4 2.7 2.6
Core Intermediate Goods -10.6 -2.5 -1.6
Crude Goods 23.9 97.6 -3.7
Spot Commodity Price Index
Aug. Sep. YoY %
CRB Spot Commodity Price Index 1.6 1.1 -6.4
[Percent Change from Previous Month]:
34
Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics
Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.
O ll C E dit P i I d
45
5.0
45
5.0
Overall Consumer Expenditure Price Index
12 Month % Change
30
3.5
4.0
4.5
30
3.5
4.0
4.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
FOMC Forecast
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
August
1.49%
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
-1.5 -1.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the September 12-13 meeting.
35
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
C C E dit P i I d
3.0 3.0
Core Consumer Expenditure Price Index
12 Month % Change
2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
FOMC Forecast
1.5 1.5
August
1.58%
1.0 1.0
0.5 0.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the September 12-13 meeting. Core PCE
Price Index includes expenditures on foodservices
36
Price Index includes expenditures on food services.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
C P i I d
6 6
Consumer Price Indexes
12 Month % Change
4
5
4
5
All Items
2
3
2
3
August
0
1
0
1
Core CPI
-2
-1
-2
-1
J ul. Aug.
CPI: All Items 1.4% 1.7%
Core CPI 2.1% 1.9%
-3 -3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
37
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
P d P i I d
12 12
Producer Price Indexes
12 Month % Change
6
8
10
6
8
10
Core Finished
Goods
2
4
6
2
4
6
August
-2
0
-2
0
All Finished
-6
-4
-6
-4
All Finished
Goods
All Finished Goods 1.98%
Core Finished Goods 2.6%
August (percent)
-8 -8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
38
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
C dit P i I d
40
45
27
30
12 Month % Change
Commodity Price Indexes
12 Month % Change
20
25
30
35
15
18
21
24 PPI Core
Intermediate
Goods
(Left Axis)
5
10
15
20
3
6
9
12
15
15
-10
-5
0
9
-6
-3
0
3
Commodity
Research Bureau
Spot Commodity
-30
-25
-20
-15
-18
-15
-12
-9
Spot Commodity
Price Index
(Right Axis)
Price Indexes Aug. Sep.
PPI Core Intermed. Goods -1.6% ---
CRBS Spot Commodities -10.1% -6.4%
-35 -21
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
39
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics
C d Oil P i
140
150
140
150
Crude Oil Prices
Current $/ Barrel
Futures
Price
110
120
130
110
120
130
70
80
90
100
70
80
90
100
Oct.
9th
40
50
60
70
40
50
60
70
Spot Price
10
20
30
10
20
30
0 0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.
40
Source: Financial Times, New York Mercantile Exchange, Haver Analytics
R l C d Oil P i Real Crude Oil Prices
2005 $/Barrel
120
130
120
130
90
100
110
120
90
100
110
120
August
60
70
80
90
60
70
80
90
40
50
60
40
50
60
10
20
30
10
20
30
Notes: Brent Crude Oil Spot Price is deflated using the Overall PCE Price Index.
0 0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
41
Source: Wall Street J ournal, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
TIPS I fl ti C ti
40
4.5
40
4.5
TIPS Inflation Compensation
Percent
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
October
5
th
5-Year
5 Years Ahead
0
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
1.0
1.5
2.0
5-Year
-10
-0.5
0.0
0.5
-10
-0.5
0.0
0.5
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
1.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
1.0
-3.0 -3.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
42
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
M t P li I t t
6.5
7.0
6.5
7.0
Monetary Policy Instruments
Percent
5.0
5.5
6.0
5.0
5.5
6.0
Federal Funds Target Rate
3.5
4.0
4.5
3.5
4.0
4.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
Primary Credit Rate
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
October 5th
Discount Rate
(discontinued)
Federal Funds Rate
Target Range
0.0 0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
43
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
R l F d l F d R t
6 6
Real Federal Funds Rate
Percent, effective Fed funds rate - lagged year over year change in core PCE price index
4
5
4
5
2
3
2
3
0
1
0
1
-2
-1
-2
-1
September
-3 -3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Notes: Most recent observation uses expected Fed funds rate as implied by Fed funds futures contracts.
44
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
E t d F d l F d R t
0.35 0.35
S t b 14 2012
Expected Federal Funds Rate
Percent
0.25
0.30
0.25
0.30
September 14, 2012
October 8, 2012
0.20 0.20
0.10
0.15
0.10
0.15
Current
Target Range
for Federal
Funds Rate
0.05 0.05
0.00 0.00
October 23 December 12 J anuary 30
Notes: Derived from Fed funds futures contracts.
45
Source: Chicago Board of Trade
F d l R S t A t
3000
Federal Reserve System Assets
$, Billions
Term ABS Lending
Facility (TALF): $1
Total: $2,847
AIG & Bear
Stearns: $4
TALF: $2
Total: $2,867
Foreign
2600
2800
AIG & Bear
Stearns: $2
Miscellaneous: $264
Stearns: $4
Miscellaneous: $258
Currency
Swaps:
$13
Foreign
Currency
S $20
2200
2400
Agency MBS: $835
Agency MBS: $843
Swaps: $20
1800
2000
Agency
Debt: $83
Agency
Debt: $87
1400
1600
Treasury Securities:
$1,648
Debt: $83
Treasury Securities:
$1,652
Debt: $87
1000
1200
9/12/2012 10/3/2012
46
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
Notes: Discount Window lending is less than $1 bln. as of 1/25. Foreign Currency Swaps were less than $1 bln. until 10/19/11.
M t B
2600
2800
2600
2800
Monetary Base
Current $, Billions
2200
2400
2600
2200
2400
2600
October 5th
1800
2000
1800
2000
1200
1400
1600
1200
1400
1600
800
1000
800
1000
600 600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
47
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
M2 M2
11
12
11
12
12 Month % Change
9
10
11
9
10
11
6
7
8
6
7
8
August
3
4
5
3
4
5
g
6.3%
1
2
3
1
2
3
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
48
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
M M k t R t
5 5
Percent
Money Market Rates
4 4
2
3
2
3
Federal Funds Rate
1 1
October 5th 3-Month LIBOR
Primary Credit Rate
0 0
3-Month T-Bill
-1 -1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
49
Source: Board of Governors, Financial Times, Haver Analytics
C it l M k t R t
10.5 10.5
Capital Market Rates
Percent
8.5
9.5
8.5
9.5
Corporate BBB
Bond Rate
30Year
55
6.5
7.5
55
6.5
7.5
30 Year
Conventional
Mortgage Rate
3.5
4.5
5.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
1.5
2.5
1.5
2.5
October 5th
10-Yr. Treasury
Bond Rate
Corporate AAA
Bond Rate
0.5 0.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
50
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
T Yi ld C
3.0 3.0
September 14, 2012
Treasury Yield Curve
Percent
2.5 2.5
p ,
October 5, 2012
1.5
2.0
1.5
2.0
1.0 1.0
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0
2 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs
Time to Maturity
51
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
Ri k P i
7.5
8.0
7.5
8.0
Risk Premium
Percent, BofA Merrill Lynch Corporate BBB - 10 Yr. Treasury Yield
6.0
6.5
7.0
6.0
6.5
7.0
40
4.5
5.0
5.5
40
4.5
5.0
5.5
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
October 5th
1.0
1.5
2.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
10 Year Average Risk Premium
0.5 0.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
52
Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
E h V l f th USD
135 135
Exchange Value of the USD
Index, March 1973 =100
125 125
105
115
105
115
95
105
95
105
85 85
September
75 75
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar.
53
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

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