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TO: Interested Parties FROM: Brooks Kochvar, GS Strategy Group RE: Pennsylvania Senate Polling Results DATE: October

22, 2012 The following outlines the key findings from a survey commissioned for Fight for the Dream PAC. The survey was conducted October 17-18, 2012. The sample was 500 likely voters statewide in Pennsylvania, yielding a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence level. All interviews were conducted by a live operator. Below are the findings. Heading into the final weeks of the campaign, Tom Smith is tied with Senator Bob Casey, Jr. Tom Smith receives 43.4% of the vote, Casey receives 43.6%, Libertarian candidate Rayburn Smith receives 2.4%, and 10.6% remain undecided. Tom Smith leads Casey by 5 points with independent voters, 37/32. Smith also leads Casey by 5 among those who have an opinion of both candidates which tends to be a leading indicator of the direction of the race.

Senate Image Ratings: Despite his time in the U.S. Senate, Bob Casey has 42/41 favorable/unfavorable image rating, and among independent voters, that drops to a 31/44 favorable/unfavorable.

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Meanwhile, Tom Smith has built a strong favorable image for himself in a short time, and his favorable/unfavorable now stands at 40/34 and is at 32/27 among independent voters. This means he is a net 18 points more favorable with independent voters than Senator Casey.

Conclusion: Tom Smith has put himself in a strong position in the race for Pennsylvanias Senate seat. With the race neck and neck, what happens over the final two weeks of the campaign will determine Pennsylvanias next Senator

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