# 7

 


‫‪8‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼـــﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬

‫‪ 1/1‬ﻣﻘﺪﻣــﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺑﻌﻠﻢ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺋﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺱ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺇﻻ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻭﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﻓ ﻘﻂ‪ ،‬ﻛﺄﻋـﺪﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻋﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﻼﻓﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﻂ‬
‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺱ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻹ ﺣﺼﺎﺀ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻋﺪ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺼﺮ ﺍﻷﺷﻴﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺄﺭﻗﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﶈﺪﻭﺩ ﻟﻌﻠﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ ﻛﻌﻠﻢ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﺑﻄﺮﻕ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺒﻮﻳﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻠﺨﻴﺼﻬﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺳﻠﻴﻤﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2/1‬ﻭﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻭﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪Data Description‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ‪Statistical Inference‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ‪Forecasting‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﺒﻮﻳﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﻠﺨﻴﺼﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻭﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﻋﻠ ﻢ ﺍﻹﺣـﺼﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻻ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﰲ‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﱄ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﻴﺎﱐ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺪﻟﻨﺎ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻃﺒﻴﻌـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ ﺍﻹﺣﺼ ﺎﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻫﻮ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ ﺍ ﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﲟﻮﺿﻮﻋﲔ‬
‫ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ‪ : Estimate‬ﻭﻓﻴﻪ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺗـﺴﻤﻰ ﺇﺣـﺼﺎﺀ ‪Statistics‬‬

‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻛﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﻭﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﱂ ‪ ، Parameters‬ﻭﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻹﺣـﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﶈﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﻨﻘﻄﺔ ‪ ، Point Estimate‬ﻛﻤ ﺎ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺃﻳـﻀﺎ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻊ ﺩﺍﺧﻠـﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻌﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪. Interval Estimate‬‬

‫‪9‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﺽ ‪ : Tests of Hypotheses‬ﻭﻓﻴﻪ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻤﻲ ﺳﻠﻴﻢ ﲞﺼﻮﺹ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﱂ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬
‫ﻭﻓﻴﻪ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺪﻟﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ ﰲ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺪﺙ ﳍﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﺿﺮ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﺑﺴﻄﻬﺎ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼ‪‬ﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﲟﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺪﺙ ﻟﻠﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 3/1‬ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻃﺮﻕ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻌﻠﻢ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻳ ﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﲜﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪ ، Data‬ﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻷﺷﻴﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ ﺃﻧـﻮﺍﻉ‬
‫ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﰲ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ :‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ) ﺫﻛﻮﺭ ‪ – Male‬ﺇﻧﺎﺙ ‪، ( Female‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ) ‪ ، (D-D + -C-C + -B-B + -A-A+‬ﻭﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﳊﻔـﻆ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻏﲑ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﺔ ﰲ ﺷـﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ‬
‫ﰒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ ‪Qualitative Data‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ‪Quantitative Data‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺭﻗﻤﻴـﺔ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﻘﺎ ﺱ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﻦ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺻﻔﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﲰﻲ ‪ : Nominal Scale‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﳍﺎ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﲤﻴﺰﻫﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋـﺎﺕ ﻻ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪:‬‬
‫ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ‪ :‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﲰﻲ " ﺫﻛﺮ – ﺃﻧﺜﻰ " ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﲰﻲ " ﻣﺘﺰﻭﺝ ـ ﺃﻋﺰﺏ ـ ﺃﺭﻣﻞ ـ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ " ‪.‬‬‫ ﺃﺻﻨﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﺭ ‪ :‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﻳﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﲰﻲ " ﺑﺮﺣﻲ ـ ﺧﻼﺹ ـ ﺳﻜﺮﻱ ـ ‪. " ....‬‬‫ ﺍﳉﻨﺴﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﻳﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﲰﻲ " ﺳﻌﻮﺩﻱ ـ ﻏﲑ ﺳﻌﻮﺩﻱ "‬‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻜﻮﻳﺪ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺎﺗﻪ ﺑﺄﺭﻗﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﺍﳉﻨـﺴﻴﺔ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺇﻋﻄـﺎﺀ ﺍﳉﻨـﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫" ﺳﻌﻮﺩﻱ " ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ) ‪ ، ( 1‬ﻭﺍﳉﻨﺴﻴﺔ " ﻏﲑ ﺳﻌﻮﺩﻱ " ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺩ ) ‪( 2‬‬

‫‪10‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺻﻔﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﱯ ‪ : Ordinal Scales‬ﻭﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻓﺌـﺎﺕ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﻬﺎ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻨﺎﺯﻟﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ‪ :‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﱯ " ‪"D-D + -C-C + -B-B + -A-A+‬‬

‫ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻲ ‪ :‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﱯ " ﺃﻣﻲ – ﻳﻘﺮﺃ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ ـ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻴﺔ‬‫ـ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ـ ﺛﺎﻧﻮ ﻳﺔ ـ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ـ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ "‬
‫ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺩﻳﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺣﻔﻆ ﳊﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻜﺘﺮﻳﺎ ‪ :‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﱯ‬‫ﻳﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﱯ " ‪ 0%‬ـ ‪ 5%‬ـ ‪ 10%‬ـ ‪" 15%‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻳﺎﻝ " ‪10000-15000 ، 5000-10000 ، <5000‬‬

‫‪." >20000 ، 15000-20000 ،‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺄﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻋﺪﺩﻳﺔ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺴﻤﲔ‬
‫ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪ : Interval Data‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﲟﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺮ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪:‬‬
‫ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ ‪ :‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻛﻤﻲ ﺗ ﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﻌﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ " ‪ " 0‬ﻟﻴﺲ‬‫‪o‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻩ ﺍﻧﻌﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﻳ ﺪﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ :‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻛﻤﻲ ﻳﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﻌﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺣﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟـﺐ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ " ‪ " 0‬ﻻ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺍﻧﻌﺪﻡ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺔ ‪ : Ratio Data‬ﻫﻲ ﻣﺘﻐ ﲑﺍﺕ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ " ‪ " 0‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋـﺪﻡ ﻭﺟـﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﻭﻣ ﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪:‬‬
‫ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺪﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻦ ‪ /‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﱰﺭﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻋﻼﻑ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻭﱎ ‪.‬‬‫ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻟﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺠﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ‪.‬‬‫ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﲰﺪﺓ ‪.‬‬‫ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋ ﺔ ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﺧﻀﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﻀﺮﺏ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻓﻌﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 4/1‬ﻃﺮﻕ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺄﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻋﻠﻤﻲ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴـﻞ‪،‬‬

‫‪11‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻃﺮﻕ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﳚﺐ ﺍﻹﳌﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1 /4 /1‬ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻣﺼﺪﺭﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳓﺼﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬

‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﲜﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﺩﺓ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﲜﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﺳ ﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺈﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺭﺏ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺄﺳﺮﺗﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳊﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﻜﻦ ﻓﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳊﻨـﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻬﻨـﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻲ‪ ... ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬
‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﲜﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﺩﺓ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺎﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻭﳎﻬﻮﺩ ﻛﺒﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﻣﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻳﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳓﺼﻞ ﻣ ﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴ ﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻏﲑ‬

‫ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺃﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﺁﺧﺮﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻴﺌـﺎﺕ ﺭﲰﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻧﺸﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺸﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺸﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ "‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻭ "‪ ....‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻫﺬ ﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﺍﳉﻬﺪ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺟ ﺔ ﺛﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻓﻴ ﻬﺎ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2 /4 /1‬ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺠﻢ‬
‫ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺑﲔ ﳉﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳊﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌ ﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳊﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ ‪ :‬ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﺣﺼﺮ ﲨﻴﻊ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲨﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ‬

‫ﺑﻼ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻛﺤﺼﺮ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺣﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴـﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜـﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳊﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻤﻮﻝ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻴﺰ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻳﻌﺎﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﻧـﻪ‬
‫ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﺍ‪‬ﻬﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﻌﺘﻢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍ ﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺳﻠﻴﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻪ ﰒ ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻢ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﻴ ﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺑﺎﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﺍﳉﻬﺪ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﲨﻌﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣـﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﺍﺳـﺘﻤﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺣﺼﺮ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﺩﻡ ﺍﳌﺮ ﻳﺾ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﲰﺎﻙ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻳﻌﺎﺏ ﻋﻠ ﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﻭﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ‪ :‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺃﻗﻞ‬
‫ﺩﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳊﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻻ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﲤﺜـﻴﻼ‬
‫ﺟﻴﺪﺍ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 3 /4 /1‬ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺃﻭﻻ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺤﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪ :‬ﻫﻮ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﰲ ﺻﻔﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﳏـﺪﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﳎﺘﻤـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﲨﻴﻊ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻧﺮﻏﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ‬
‫ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﻣ ﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺟﻦ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﻃﻼﺏ ﺍﻟﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ :‬ﻫﻮ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ ﺑﻄﺮﻕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪(1‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬

‫ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬

‫‪ -3‬ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﱃ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(2‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍ‪‬ﺎ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍ‪‬ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺪﻑ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ ‪. Simple Random Sample‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻘﻴﺔ ‪. Stratified Random Sample‬‬
‫ﺕ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ‪. Systematic Random Sample‬‬
‫ﺙ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻘﻮﺩﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ‪. Cluster Sample‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣ ﻔﺮﺩﺍ‪‬ﺎ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺪﻳﺔ ‪Judgmental Sample‬‬

‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﳊﺼﺼﻴﺔ ‪Quota Sample‬‬

‫‪14‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼـــﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ‬

‫‪ 1/2‬ﻣﻘﺪﻣـــﺔ‬

‫ﻃﺮﻕ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺗﺒﻮﻳﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﺮﺿـﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﲤﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﲡﺎﻧﺴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺘﲔ ﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2/2‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺎ‬

‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ) ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻛﻤﻲ ( ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜـﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1 /2 /2‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﻨﺎ ﺑﺼﺪﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﲢﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗـﻪ ﰲ‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻮﺩﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺃﺣﺪﳘﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ) ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ( ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ) ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ( ﻟﻜ ﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ) ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ (‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ ﻟﻨﺎ ﻛﻴﻒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﺒﻮﻳﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪( 1 -2‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 40‬ﻣﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻨﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻜﺮﻱ‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫ﺻﻘﻌﻲ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺳﻜﺮﻱ‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺳﻜﺮﻱ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺻﻘﻌﻲ‬

‫ﺻﻘﻌﻲ‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫ﺻﻘﻌﻲ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺻﻘﻌﻲ‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺳﻜﺮﻱ‬

‫ﻧﺒﻮﺕ ﺳﻴﻒ‬

‫ﺻﻘﻌﻲ‬

‫ﻧﺒﻮﺕ ﺳﻴﻒ‬

‫ﻧﺒﻮﺕ ﺳﻴﻒ‬

‫ﺳﻜﺮﻱ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺻﻘﻌﻲ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ؟‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ؟ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻛ ﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻋﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫ﻧﺒﻮ ﺕ ﺳﻴﻒ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫ﺻﻘﻌﻲ‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮ ) ﺳﻜﺮﻱ – ﺧﻼﺹ – ﺑﺮﺣﻲ – ﺻﻘﻌﻲ – ﻧﺒﻮﺕ ﺳﻴﻒ ( ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﲰﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻔﺮﻳﻎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻮ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﳛﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻼﻣﺎﺕ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻋﻼﻣﺔ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﺘﻤـﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻨﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻞ ﲬﺲ ﻋﻼﻣﺎﺕ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺣﺰﻣﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻔﺮﻳﻎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ) ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ(‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮ‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫ﺳﻜﺮﻱ‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫‪8‬‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫ﺻﻘﻌﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺒﻮﺕ ﺳﻴﻒ‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪Sum‬‬

‫• ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻮ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(1 -2‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 40‬ﻣﺰﺭﻋ ﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻨﺘﺠﻪ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‬
‫‪ 5 ‬‬
‫‪  = 0.125‬‬
‫‪ 40 ‬‬
‫‪ 10 ‬‬
‫‪  = 0.25‬‬
‫‪ 40 ‬‬
‫‪ 13 ‬‬
‫‪  = 0.325‬‬
‫‪ 40 ‬‬
‫‪ 8 ‬‬
‫‪  = 0.20‬‬
‫‪ 40 ‬‬
‫‪ 4‬‬
‫‪  = 0.10‬‬
‫‪ 40 ‬‬
‫‪1.00‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ‬
‫) ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ( )‪(f‬‬

‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮ‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫ﺳﻜﺮﻱ‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫ﺧﻼﺹ‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫ﺑﺮﺣﻲ‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫ﺻﻘﻌﻲ‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫ﻧﺒﻮﺕ ﺳﻴﻒ‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪Sum‬‬

‫‪16‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪:‬‬
‫ﳛﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﺑﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪ ( 1 -2‬ﻳﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻟﻠﻤﺰﺍﺭﻋﲔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺮ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻖ ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪ ( 1 -2‬ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ " ﺑﺮﺣﻲ " ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫـﻲ‬
‫‪ 32.5%‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﳑﺎ ﻳﺪﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺋﻊ ﰲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﺭ ﻫﻮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﳒﺪ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ " ﻧﺒﻮﺕ ﺳﻴﻒ " ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 10.0%‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪( 2 -2‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 50‬ﻓﺮﺩ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﻳﻘﺮﺍ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻳﻘﺮﺃ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﻳﻘﺮﺍ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﻳﻘﺮﺍ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻳﻘﺮﺍ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬

‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻳﻘﺮﺍ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬

‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﻋﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊ ـﻞ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻲ ) ﻳﻘﺮﺃ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ‪ -‬ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ _ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ -‬ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‪ -‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‪ -‬ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ( ﻣﺘﻐﲑ‬
‫ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﱯ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺈﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻔﺮﻳﻎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻔﺮﻳﻎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ) ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ(‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻲ‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫ﻳﻘﺮﺃ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬

‫‪15‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪50‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬

‫‪Sum‬‬

‫‪17‬‬
‫• ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭ ﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(2 -2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 50‬ﻓﺮﺩ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‬
‫‪0.12‬‬
‫‪0.20‬‬
‫‪0.24‬‬
‫‪0.30‬‬
‫‪0.10‬‬
‫‪0.04‬‬
‫‪1.00‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ) ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ (‬
‫)‪(f‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪50‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻲ‬
‫ﻳﻘﺮﺃ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬

‫‪Sum‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪ ( 1 -2‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‬
‫) ‪ ( 2 -2‬ﻳﱭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 30%‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﳑﻦ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ ﻣﺆﻫﻞ ﺛﺎﻧﻮ ﻱ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﳑﻦ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ ﻣﺆﻫﻞ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻱ ) ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ ،‬ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻳﻘﺮﺃ ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ ( ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪، 5%‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺆﻫﻞ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 4%‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻣﺎ ﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﳚﺐ ﻣﺮﺍﻋﺎﺓ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ﻟﻠﺠﺪ ﻭﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻟﻠﺠﺪﻭﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻋﻤﻮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻋﻤﺪﺓ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﺪﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳏﺘﻮﺍﻩ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﳚﺐ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2 /2 /2‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ‬

‫ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻊ ﰲ ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ‬

‫ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻮﺩﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﳛﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺗـﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻘﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﻤﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺍ‪‬ـﺎ ﻟﻠﻔﺌـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ ﻛﻴﻒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪( 3 -2‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ‪ 70‬ﻃﺎﻟﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﳌﻘﺮﺭ ﻣﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ‪.‬‬

‫‪18‬‬
‫‪75‬‬
‫‪71‬‬
‫‪69‬‬
‫‪63‬‬
‫‪74‬‬
‫‪94‬‬
‫‪78‬‬

‫‪56‬‬
‫‪66‬‬
‫‪75‬‬
‫‪65‬‬
‫‪58‬‬
‫‪72‬‬
‫‪62‬‬

‫‪70‬‬
‫‪62‬‬
‫‪71‬‬
‫‪73‬‬
‫‪60‬‬
‫‪78‬‬
‫‪88‬‬

‫‪66‬‬
‫‪67‬‬
‫‪57‬‬
‫‪66‬‬
‫‪81‬‬
‫‪91‬‬
‫‪64‬‬

‫‪60‬‬
‫‪71‬‬
‫‪69‬‬
‫‪63‬‬
‫‪80‬‬
‫‪85‬‬
‫‪87‬‬

‫‪55‬‬
‫‪61‬‬
‫‪72‬‬
‫‪58‬‬
‫‪74‬‬
‫‪77‬‬
‫‪55‬‬

‫‪70‬‬
‫‪61‬‬
‫‪57‬‬
‫‪67‬‬
‫‪74‬‬
‫‪77‬‬
‫‪57‬‬

‫‪65‬‬
‫‪67‬‬
‫‪68‬‬
‫‪73‬‬
‫‪76‬‬
‫‪83‬‬
‫‪79‬‬

‫‪65‬‬
‫‪70‬‬
‫‪72‬‬
‫‪62‬‬
‫‪73‬‬
‫‪82‬‬
‫‪64‬‬

‫‪56‬‬
‫‪60‬‬
‫‪68‬‬
‫‪72‬‬
‫‪58‬‬
‫‪76‬‬
‫‪79‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻟﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ‪ 70‬ﺇﱃ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 80‬؟‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 70‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ؟‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻠ ﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ‪ 80‬ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ؟‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻛﻤﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺒﻮﻳﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺷـﻜﻞ ﺟـﺪﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫•‬

‫•‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ )‪Range(R‬‬
‫‪Range = Maximum – Minimum‬‬
‫‪R = 94 - 55 = 39‬‬
‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ )‪: Classes(C‬‬

‫ﺗﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ‪ :‬ﺭﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﺮﻯ ﻛﺜﲑﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪ 5‬ﺇﱃ ‪ ، 15‬ﺑﻔـﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﻫﻮ ‪ 8‬ﻓﺌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪. (C=8) :‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ )‪: Length(L‬‬
‫• ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Range‬‬
‫‪R 39‬‬
‫= =‬
‫‪= 4.875 ≈ 5‬‬
‫‪Classes C‬‬
‫‪8‬‬

‫=‪L‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﻲ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﻲ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺓ ) ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ( ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ = ‪55‬‬‫ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ = ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ‪ +‬ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ = ‪60=55+5 = 55 + L‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻫﻲ ‪ " 55 to les than 60" :‬ﻭﺗﻘﺮﺃ " ﻣﻦ ‪ 55‬ﺇﱃ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪" 60‬‬
‫_ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ = ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ = ‪60‬‬
‫ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ = ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ‪ +‬ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ = ‪65 = 60 + 5‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪ "60 to les than 65" :‬ﻭﺗﻘﺮﺃ " ﻣﻦ ‪ 60‬ﺇﱃ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪" 65‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻭﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪19‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻌﺔ ‪70 to les than 75 :‬‬

‫‪65 to les than 70‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺴﺔ ‪75 to les than 80 :‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺳﺔ ‪80 to les than 85 :‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻌﺔ ‪85 to les than 90 :‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻨﺔ ‪90 to les than 95 :‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺑﺄﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﲜﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻔﺮﻳﻎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻔﺮﻳﻎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻔﺮﻳﻎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫) ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ(‬

‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻓﺌ ﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪55-‬‬

‫‪55 – 60‬‬

‫‪55 to les than 60‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪60-‬‬

‫‪60 – 65‬‬

‫‪60 to les than 65‬‬

‫‪65-‬‬

‫‪65 – 70‬‬

‫‪65 to les than 70‬‬

‫‪70-‬‬

‫‪70 – 75‬‬

‫‪70 to les than 75‬‬

‫‪75-‬‬

‫‪75 – 80‬‬

‫‪75 to les than 80‬‬

‫‪80-‬‬

‫‪80 – 85‬‬

‫‪80 to les than 85‬‬

‫‪85-‬‬

‫‪85 – 90‬‬

‫‪90-95‬‬

‫‪90 - 95‬‬

‫‪85 to les than 90‬‬
‫‪90 to les than 95‬‬

‫‪13‬‬
‫‪16‬‬

‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ‬

‫‪/‬‬
‫‪/‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪////‬‬
‫‪///‬‬

‫‪4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪Sum‬‬

‫‪70‬‬

‫• ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(3 -2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ‪ 70‬ﻃﺎ ﻟﺐ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺩﺭﺟﺎ‪‬ﻢ ﰲ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﻘﺮﺭ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ) ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ(‬

‫)‪(f‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪70‬‬

‫‪0.143‬‬
‫‪0.171‬‬
‫‪0.186‬‬
‫‪0.229‬‬
‫‪0.143‬‬
‫‪0.057‬‬
‫‪0.043‬‬
‫‪0.028‬‬
‫‪1.00‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 1426‬ﻫـ‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪:‬‬
‫‪f‬‬
‫‪n‬‬

‫= ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ ( 3 -2‬ﻳﺒﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪.‬‬

‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ‬

‫‪55 – 60‬‬
‫‪60 – 65‬‬
‫‪65 – 70‬‬
‫‪70 – 75‬‬
‫‪75 – 80‬‬
‫‪80 – 85‬‬
‫‪85 – 90‬‬
‫‪90 – 95‬‬
‫‪Sum‬‬

‫‪20‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ‪ 70‬ﺇﱃ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 80‬ﻫﻮ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﲔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺘﲔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑ ﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﻣﺴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = 0.229 + 0.143 = 0.372‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ) ‪(80 , 70‬‬

‫ﺃﻱ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 37.2%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺣﺼﻠﻮﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ) ‪. (80 , 70‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ ، 70‬ﻫﻮ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨـﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺌـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = 0.143 + 0.171 + 0.186 = 0.5‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪70‬‬

‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 50%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺣﺼﻠﻮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 70‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ‪ 80‬ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨـﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺌـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = 0.057 + 0.043 + 0.028 = 0.128‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﳊﺎ ﺻﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ‪ 80‬ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 12.8%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺣﺼﻠﻮﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ‪ 80‬ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 3/2‬ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴـﺚ‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﲤﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻄ ﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﺃﺳﻬﻞ ﻭﺃﺳﺮﻉ‬
‫ﰲ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻃﺮﻕ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻟﻸﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1 /3 /2‬ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬

‫‪Histogram‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﻟﻠﺠﺪ ﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﺼﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻋﻤﺪﺓ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻼﺻﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﲤﺜﻞ ﻗﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ) ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺑﻌﻤﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﻪ ﻫﻮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻃﻮﻝ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺗﻪ ﻫﻮ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪( 4 -2‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺟﻦ ﺑﺎﳉﺮﺍﻡ‪ ،‬ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 100‬ﺍﺧﺘﲑﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺣﺪ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 45‬ﻳﻮﻡ ‪.‬‬
‫‪Sum‬‬

‫‪700-720‬‬

‫‪100‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ؟‬

‫‪680-‬‬

‫‪660-‬‬

‫‪640-‬‬

‫‪620-‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪ 600‬ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ‬‫‪10‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ‬

‫‪21‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍ ﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﻋﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬

‫‪ -1‬ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ )‪(L‬‬

‫‪L = 620 − 600 = 640 − 620 = ... = 720 − 700 = 20‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ = ‪20‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺭﺳﻢ ﳏﻮﺭﺍﻥ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﺪﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻲ ﻭﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﻭﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻛﻞ ﻓﺌﺔ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺑﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﻪ ﻫﻮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻃﻮﻝ ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺗﻪ ﻫﻮ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻛﻞ ﻋﻤﻮﺩ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ) ‪ ( 1 -2‬ﻳﺒﲔ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(1 -2‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 100‬ﺩﺟﺎﺟﺔ‬

‫‪ -3‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪ :‬ﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪Sum‬‬
‫‪100‬‬
‫‪1.00‬‬

‫‪700-720‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪0.10‬‬

‫‪680‬‬‫‪20‬‬
‫‪0.20‬‬

‫‪660‬‬‫‪25‬‬
‫‪0.25‬‬

‫‪640‬‬‫‪20‬‬
‫‪0.20‬‬

‫‪620‬‬‫‪15‬‬
‫‪0.15‬‬

‫‪600‬‬‫‪10‬‬
‫‪0.10‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‬

‫‪22‬‬
‫• ﺑ ﺈﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻳـﺘﻢ ﺭﺳـﻢ ﺍﳌـﺪﺭﺝ‬
‫ﺍ ﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﺑﺈﺣﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈـﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(2 -2‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 100‬ﺩﺟﺎﺟﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺃﻥ ‪ 25%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ﻳﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻭﺯﻧﻪ ﺑﲔ ‪ 680 ، 660‬ﺟﺮﺍﻡ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻠﺘﻮﻱ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺪﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﺯﻳـﻊ ﺃﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟـﺪﺟﺎﺝ ﺳـﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ )‪. (n‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜ ﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨـﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺕ ‪ -‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺋﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﺎﻇﺮﻫﺎ ﺃﻛﱪ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻠﲔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﲔ‪،‬‬
‫ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺋﻊ ﻳﻘﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ )‪ (660-680‬ﻭﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺙ ‪ -‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(3 -2‬‬

‫‪23‬‬

‫‪ 2 /3 /2‬ﺍﳌﻀﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻫﻮ ﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﺑﻴﺎﱐ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻟﻠﺠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳـﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﺣﺪﺍﺛﻴﺎﺕ ﲞﻄﻮﻁ ﻣﻨﻜﺴﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ‬
‫ﻃﺮﰲ ﺍﳌﻀﻠﻊ ﺑﺎﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍ ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻊ ﰲ ﻣﻨﺘﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺴﺐ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﻌﺪﻡ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪( 5 -2‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪ ( 4 -2‬ﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻀﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜ ﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬
‫ﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻀﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪( 3 -2‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ )‪(x‬‬
‫‪(600+620)/2= 610‬‬
‫‪(620+640)/2=630‬‬
‫‪650‬‬
‫‪670‬‬
‫‪690‬‬
‫‪(700+720)/710‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ) ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ(‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫‪25‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪100‬‬

‫‪600‬‬‫‪620‬‬‫‪640‬‬‫‪660‬‬‫‪680‬‬‫‪700-720‬‬
‫‪Sum‬‬

‫• ﻧﻘﻂ ﺍﻹﺣﺪﺍﺛﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪730‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪710‬‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫‪690‬‬
‫‪20‬‬

‫‪670‬‬
‫‪25‬‬

‫‪650‬‬
‫‪20‬‬

‫‪630‬‬
‫‪15‬‬

‫‪610‬‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫‪590‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ )‪(x‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ )‪(y‬‬

‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﻟﻨﻘﻂ ﺍﻹﺣﺪﺍﺛﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻮﺻﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﲞﻄﻮﻁ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ) ‪( 4 -2‬‬

‫‪24‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪( 4 -2‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻀﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 100‬ﺩﺟ ﺎﺟﺔ‬

‫‪ 3 /3 /2‬ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺑﺈﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻀﻠﻊ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲤﻬﻴـﺪ‬
‫ﺍﳋﻄﻮﻁ ﺍﳌﻨﻜﺴﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﲝﻴﺚ ﳝﺮ ﺑﺄﻛﺜﺮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ) ‪ ( 5 -2‬ﻳﺒﲔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(5 -2‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 100‬ﺩﺟﺎﺟﺔ‬

‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﺑﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻲ ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪ ( 6 -2‬ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫‪25‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(6 -2‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻷ ﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 100‬ﺩﺟﺎﺟﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺷﻜﻞ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﺗﺪﻝ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﻣ ﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 3/3‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻌﺔ‬

‫ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻗﺪ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨـﺔ ﺃﻭ‬

‫ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﲡﻤﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺻﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻫﺎﺑﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋ ﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪﺓ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 1 /3 /3‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ‬

‫ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ) ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ( ﺍﻟﱵ‬

‫ﺗﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪( 6 -2‬‬

‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ 40‬ﺑﻘﺮﺓ ﰲ ﻣﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻟﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺠﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺮﺓ‬

‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﺘﺮ ‪.‬‬
‫‪Sum‬‬

‫‪34-38‬‬

‫‪30-‬‬

‫‪26-‬‬

‫‪22-‬‬

‫‪18-‬‬

‫ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻟﺒﺎﻥ‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺑﻘﺎﺭ‬

‫‪26‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻛﻮﻥ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻛﻮﻥ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤ ﻊ ﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺑﻘﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ‪ 28‬ﻟﺘﺮ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 25%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺑﻘﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﻞ‬

‫• ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 50%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺻﺎﻋﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺘﺠﻤﻊ‬

‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺘﺠﻤﻊ‬

‫ﺻﺎﻋﺪ ﻧﺴﱯ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻱ‬
‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺻﺎﻋﺪ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺑﻘﺎﺭ‬

‫ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻠﺘﺮ‬

‫‪0.00‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪18‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪18-‬‬

‫‪0.10‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪22‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪22-‬‬

‫‪0.325‬‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪26‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪26-‬‬

‫‪0.70‬‬

‫‪28‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪30‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪30-‬‬

‫‪0.90‬‬

‫‪36‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪34‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪34-38‬‬

‫‪1.00‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪38‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪Sum‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍ ﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪ :‬ﳛﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﺑﻘـﺴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﺧـﲑ ﰲ ﺟـﺪﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﻟﻴﻤﺮ ﺑﺎﻹﺣـﺪﺍﺛﻴﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫‪27‬‬

‫• ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺑﻘﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ‪ 28‬ﻟﺘﺮ ﻫﻲ ‪ 0.47‬ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫• ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 25%‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻫﻲ ‪ 25 :‬ﻟﺘﺮ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫• ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 50%‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻫﻲ ‪ 28.5 :‬ﻟﺘﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‪:‬‬

‫‪28‬‬

‫‪ 2 /3 /3‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﳍﺎﺑﻂ )ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺯﻝ(‬
‫ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨ ﺎﺯﻝ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ) ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ( ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪( 7 -2‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﰲ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪ ، ( 6 -2‬ﻭﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺯﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺯﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﻞ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺘ ﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺯﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﻧﺎﺯﻝ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬

‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺘﺠﻤﻊ‬

‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫‪1.00‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪18‬‬

‫‪0.90‬‬

‫‪36‬‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪22‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪0.675‬‬

‫‪27‬‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪26‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪26-‬‬

‫‪0.30‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪30‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪30-‬‬

‫‪0.10‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪34‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪34-38‬‬

‫‪0.00‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪38‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫ﻧﺎﺯﻝ ﻧﺴﱯ‬

‫ﻣﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﻧﺎﺯﻝ‬

‫ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‬

‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺑﻘﺎﺭ‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫‪18‬‬‫‪22-‬‬

‫ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺯﻝ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻟﻠﺘﺮ‬

‫‪Sum‬‬

‫‪29‬‬

‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﻨﻴﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺑﻴﺎﱐ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃ‪‬ﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺎﻥ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻨﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻭﺃﻭﻗﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 4/3‬ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ‬

‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﲟﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﺋﺮﺓ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻋﻤﺪﺓ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺧﻼﻟﻪ ﻭﺻﻒ ﻭﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﳎ ﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1 /4/3‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﺋﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟـ ‪ 360 o‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ r‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ×‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ )‪(8-2‬‬

‫‪ = 360 o‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 500‬ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﻤﻲ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪sum‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﻢ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬

‫‪500‬‬

‫‪170‬‬

‫‪50‬‬

‫‪130‬‬

‫‪150‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ‬

‫ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﺋﺮﺓ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﻞ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ × ‪ = 360 o‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺼﺺ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬

‫‪30‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ‬
‫‪360 × 0.30 = 108 o‬‬

‫‪0.30‬‬

‫‪150‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ‬

‫‪360 × 0.26 = 93.6 o‬‬

‫‪0.26‬‬

‫‪130‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ‬

‫‪360 × 0.10 = 36 o‬‬

‫‪0.10‬‬

‫‪50‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﻢ‬

‫‪360 × 0.30 = 122.4 o‬‬
‫‪360 o‬‬

‫‪0.34‬‬
‫‪1.00‬‬

‫‪170‬‬
‫‪500‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫‪Sum‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺩﺍﺋﺮﺓ ﻭﺗﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺭﺑﻊ ﺃﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺼﺼﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(7 -2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻌ ﻴﻨﺔ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 500‬ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ﻣﻮﺯﻋﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 34%‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻛﱪ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﰲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﻢ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 10%‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻗـﻞ ﻧـﺴﺒﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪31‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼـــﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‬
‫‪Central Tendency‬‬

‫‪ 1/3‬ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬

‫ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﰲ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ‬

‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺗﱰﻉ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﲡﺎﻧﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺄ ﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀ ﺎ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺷﺎﺫﺓ ﺃﻡ ﻻ ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻻ ﻳﻜﻔﻰ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻠﻴﻪ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬
‫ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺗﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2/3‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﲟﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱴ ﺗﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‬

‫ﺣﻮﳍﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳ ﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﺎ ﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻷﻫﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ‬

‫‪ 1 /2 /3‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‬

‫‪Arithmetic Mean‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻛﺜﺮﻫﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ‬
‫ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩﻫﺎ ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ‬

‫‪ n‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﳍﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪. x1 , x2 ,..., xn :‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ x‬ﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ Σ‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻉ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـ ﺎﻝ )‪(1-3‬‬

‫‪32‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ‪ 8‬ﻃﻼﺏ ﰲ ﻣ ﻘﺮﺭ ‪ 122‬ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺀ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫‪40‬‬

‫‪36‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪37‬‬

‫‪42‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪34‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻣﺘﺤﺎﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬
‫ﻹﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺗﻄﺒﻖ ﺍﳌﻌ ﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ ( 1 -3‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪x1 + x2 + ... + x‬‬

‫‪n‬‬

‫=‪x‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫‪34 + 32 + 42 + 37 + 35 + 40 + 36 + 40 296‬‬
‫=‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 37‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﰲ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﻘﺮﺭ ‪ 122‬ﺇﺣﺺ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ 37‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋ ﺔ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ‬
‫ﲟﺮﻛﺰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺆﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺓ ﺗﻘﻊ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ k‬ﻫﻲ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬

‫‪x1 , x2 ,..., xk‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟ ﻔﺌﺎﺕ‪،‬‬

‫‪ f1 , f2 ,..., fk‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ )‪(2-3‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﻌﺮﺽ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ 40‬ﺗﻠﻤﻴﺬ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺃﻭﺯﺍ‪‬ﻢ ‪.‬‬
‫‪42-44‬‬
‫‪1‬‬

‫‪40-42‬‬
‫‪5‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳊــﻞ‬

‫‪38-40‬‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫‪36-38‬‬
‫‪13‬‬

‫‪34-36‬‬
‫‪7‬‬

‫‪32-34‬‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻼﻣﻴﺬ‬

‫‪33‬‬
‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ ( 2 -3‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬

‫‪∑f‬‬

‫‪.‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ‪. x‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﺿﺮﺏ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﻟﻪ )‪ ، (x f‬ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻉ ‪∑ xf‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪. ( 2 -3‬‬

‫‪x f‬‬
‫‪33=132 × 4‬‬
‫‪35=245 × 7‬‬
‫‪37=481 × 13‬‬
‫‪39=390 × 10‬‬
‫‪41=205 × 5‬‬
‫‪43=43 × 1‬‬
‫‪1496‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬

‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪f‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪40‬‬

‫) ‪(C‬‬

‫)‪2=33 ÷ (32+34‬‬
‫‪35‬‬
‫‪37‬‬
‫‪39‬‬
‫‪41‬‬
‫‪43‬‬

‫‪32-34‬‬
‫‪34-36‬‬
‫‪36-38‬‬
‫‪38-40‬‬
‫‪40-42‬‬
‫‪42-44‬‬

‫ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻤﻴﺬ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪6‬‬

‫‪1496‬‬
‫‪= 37.4 k.g‬‬
‫‪40‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪∑ xi f i‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪6‬‬

‫‪∑ fi‬‬

‫=‪x‬‬

‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻤﻴﺬ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪37.4 k.g‬‬

‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‬
‫ﻳﺘﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍ ﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬ ﻩ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ‪ ،‬ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪ x‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x : a , a ,..., a‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻫﻮ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ ،‬ﻟﻮ ﺍﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 5‬ﻃﻼﺏ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺟﺪﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻃﺎﻟﺐ ﻭﺯﻧﻪ ‪ 63‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ‬
‫‪ ،‬ﻓ ﺈﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x = 63 + 63 + 63 + 63 + 63 = 315 = 63 k.g‬‬
‫‪5‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻭﺳﻄﻬﺎ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﺻﻔﺮﺍ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ )‪ ، ( 1 -3‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﻫﻲ‬

‫‪34‬‬
‫‪ ، 34, 32, 42, 37, 35, 40, 36, 40:‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪ ، x = 37‬ﺇﺫﺍ ‪:‬‬
‫‪40‬‬

‫‪36‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪37‬‬

‫‪42‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪34‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪296‬‬

‫‪40-37‬‬

‫‪36-37‬‬

‫‪40-37‬‬

‫‪35-37‬‬

‫‪37-37‬‬

‫‪42-37‬‬

‫‪32-37‬‬

‫‪34-37‬‬

‫)‪( x − x‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪-1‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪-2‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪-5‬‬

‫‪-3‬‬

‫)‪( x − 37‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪∑ (x − 37) = 0‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺿﻴﻒ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺇﱃ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻟﺔ ) ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ(‬
‫ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ) ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ( ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺎ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻫﻲ ‪ ، x1 , x2 ,..., xn :‬ﻭﰎ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ )‪ (a‬ﺇﱃ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ، y‬ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ‬

‫‪ ، y = x + a‬ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ) y‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ(‬

‫ﻫﻮ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ y‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪. ( 1 -3‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻗﺮﺭ ﺍﳌﺼﺤﺢ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪ 5‬ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻃﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬
‫}‪ ، {(37+5)=42‬ﻭﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪.‬‬
‫‪296‬‬
‫‪336‬‬

‫‪40‬‬
‫‪40+5‬‬

‫‪36‬‬
‫‪36+5‬‬

‫‪40‬‬
‫‪40+5‬‬

‫‪35‬‬
‫‪35+5‬‬

‫‪37‬‬
‫‪37+5‬‬

‫‪42‬‬
‫‪42+5‬‬

‫‪32‬‬
‫‪32+5‬‬

‫‪34‬‬
‫‪34+5‬‬

‫‪45‬‬

‫‪41‬‬

‫‪45‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪42‬‬

‫‪47‬‬

‫‪37‬‬

‫‪39‬‬

‫ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪∑ y = 336‬‬

‫) ‪→ ( x + 5 = 37 + 5 = 42‬‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫)‪y = ( x + 5‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ‬

‫‪= 42‬‬

‫‪∑ y = 336‬‬
‫‪8‬‬

‫‪n‬‬

‫=‪y‬‬

‫‪ -4‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺿﺮﺏ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ )‪ (a‬ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻟﺔ )ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺏ( ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻞ( ﻣﻀﺮﻭﺑﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ‪ .‬ﺃﻯ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ‪ ، y = a x :‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪ y‬ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪35‬‬
‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ ، 50‬ﻭﻗﺮﺭ ﺍﳌﺼﺤﺢ ﺃﻥ ﳚﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻣﻦ ‪ 100‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺳﻮﻑ‬
‫ﻳﻀﺮﺏ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ‬

‫‪y = a x = 2(37) = 74‬‬

‫)‪ ، (a=2‬ﻭﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -5‬ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻭﺳﻄﻬﺎ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ‪ ،‬ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪< ∑ ( x − a ) 2 :‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫)‪∑ ( x − 37‬‬

‫ﳉﻤﻴﻊ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪a ≠ 37‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜ ﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺢ‬
‫ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺗﺴ ﻤﻰ ﺃﻭﺯﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺗﺮﺟﻴﺤﺎﺕ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺃﺧﺬ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻏﲑ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻟﻮ ﺃﺧﺬﻧﺎ ﲬﺴﺔ ﻃﻼﺏ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﺠﻠﻨﺎ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﰲ ﻣ ﻘﺮﺭ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺬﻛﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﺒﻮﻉ ‪.‬‬
‫‪sum‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪173‬‬

‫‪46‬‬

‫‪28‬‬

‫‪36‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪23‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫ﻣﺴﻠﺴﻞ‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫‪w‬‬

‫) ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ(‬
‫) ﻋﺪﺩ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺬﻛﺎﺭ (‬

‫ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺢ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪∑x 23+ 40+ 36+ 28+ 46 173‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 34.6‬‬
‫= ‪n‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪5‬‬

‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺭﺩﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﳓﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ‪x‬‬

‫=‪x‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺤﺔ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺬﻛﺎﺭ ‪ ، w‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪(w) = ∑∑w = 23×1+ 40× 3 + 36× 3 + 28× 2 + 46× 4‬‬
‫‪xw‬‬

‫‪1+ 3 + 3 + 2 + 4‬‬
‫‪23+120+108+ 56+184 491‬‬
‫=‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 37.769‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪13‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌ ﺮﺟﺢ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺢ ) ‪(w‬‬

‫ﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪36‬‬

‫ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‬

‫ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺑﺎﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺃﻧﻪ ﺳﻬﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺃﻧﻪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ ﻭﻓﻬﻤﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻋﻴﻮﺑﻪ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻄﺮﻓﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻳﺼﻌ ﺐ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﻮﺣﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2 /2 /3‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‬

‫‪Median‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺭﺗﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﺑﺄﻧـﻪ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ )‪ ، ( n 2‬ﻭﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻨـﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨـﺼﻒ ﺍﻵﺧـﺮ )‪ ، ( n 2‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬
‫‪ 50%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻨﻪ‪ 50% ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﻪ ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﻮﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻛﻴﻒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻧﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺗﺮﺗﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﻳﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫•‬
‫•‬

‫‪ n + 1‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ‪ :‬ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ = ‪‬‬
‫‪ 2 ‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ )‪ (n‬ﻓﺮﺩﻱ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ )‪ (n‬ﺯﻭﺟﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻳﻘﻊ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ ، (n / 2‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ ﺭﻗـﻢ‬
‫)‪ ، ((n / 2) + 1‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳛﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫‪37‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ) ‪( 3 -3‬‬
‫ﰎ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﺃﺭﺽ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ‪ 17‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﲡﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﺸﺎ‪‬ﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰎ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺘﻬﺎ ﲟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﰎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ ﳘﺎ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ )‪ (a‬ﻭﺟﺮﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 7‬ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﲡﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ )‪(b‬‬

‫ﻭﺟﺮﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 10‬ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﲡﺮﻳﺒ ﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﻮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻲ ‪ ،‬ﰎ ﺗﺴﺠﻴﻞ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻦ ‪/‬‬
‫ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2.5‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪1.5‬‬

‫‪2.3‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪1.5‬‬

‫‪2.5‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪3.75‬‬

‫‪2.75 3.25‬‬

‫‪1.2‬‬

‫‪1.8‬‬

‫‪4.5‬‬

‫‪3.5‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ )‪(a‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ )‪(b‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﺳﻴﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﻗﺎﺭﻥ ﺑﻴﻨﻬ ﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﺳﻴﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻠﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ )‪(a‬‬

‫• ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫• ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻓﺮﺩﻯ )‪( n = 7‬‬

‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻫﻲ ‪. ((n + 1) / 2 = (7 + 1) / 2 = 4 ) :‬‬

‫• ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ ، 4‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺳﻴﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻠﻨﻮﻉ ‪ a‬ﻫﻮ‪:‬‬

‫ﻃﻦ ‪ /‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ‪Meda = 2.3‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﺳﻴﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻠﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ )‪: (b‬‬
‫• ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫‪38‬‬
‫• ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺯﻭﺟﻲ )‪ ( n = 10‬ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫• ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻫﻲ ‪. ((n + 1) / 2 = (10 + 1) / 2 = 5.5) :‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ = ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺘﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﺘﲔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨ ﺘﺼﻒ )ﺭﻗﻢ ‪. ( 6 ، 5‬‬

‫‪2.5 + 3‬‬
‫ﻃﻦ ‪ /‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ‪= 2.75‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫= ‪Med b‬‬

‫ﻭﲟﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺩ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺳﻴﻂ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ )‪ (a‬ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺳﻴﻂ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ‬

‫)‪ ، (b‬ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪. Med b > Med a :‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ‬
‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺒﻮﺑﺔ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ‪.‬‬
‫•‬

‫‪‬‬
‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ :‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪ n   ∑ f‬‬
‫‪ =‬‬
‫‪ 2  2‬‬

‫• ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻛﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺻﺎﻋﺪ ﺳﺎﺑﻖ ‪f1‬‬
‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ )‪(n 2‬‬

‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺻﺎﻋﺪ ﻻﺣﻖ ‪f2‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‬

‫)‪( A‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪Med‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‬

‫• ﻭﳛﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪L‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺴﺐ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ = ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ – ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ‬
‫‪L = Upper - Lower‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ )‪( 4-3‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ 50‬ﻋﺠﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ‪ ،‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﻐـﺬﺍﺀ ﺍﳉـﺎﻑ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻴﻠﻮ ﺟﺮﺍﻡ‬
‫‪13.5 – 16.5‬‬
‫‪5‬‬

‫ ‪10.5‬‬‫‪10‬‬

‫ ‪7.5‬‬‫‪19‬‬

‫ ‪4.5‬‬‫‪12‬‬

‫ ‪1.5‬‬‫‪4‬‬

‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍ ﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻮﻝ ‪f‬‬

‫‪39‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬

‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻴﺎ‬

‫• ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪:‬‬

‫= ‪n ∑ f = 50‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪25‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫• ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ‪:‬‬

‫• ﲢ ﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ )‪ (n / 2‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻌﲔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻘﻊ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‬
‫)‪ ، (n / 2‬ﻭﰱ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ )‪ (25‬ﺗﻘﻊ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻌﲔ ‪(35 ,‬‬

‫)‪ ، 16‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪، 7.5‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻼﺣﻖ ‪ . 10.5‬ﺃﻯ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪. (7.5-10.5‬‬

‫• ﻭﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ ( 11 -3‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪A= 7.5 , f1 = 16 , f2 = 35 , L = 10.5 − 7.5 = 3‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪40‬‬
‫‪25 − 16‬‬
‫‪×3‬‬
‫‪35 − 16‬‬

‫‪× L = 7.5 +‬‬

‫‪f1‬‬

‫‪−‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪f 2 − f1‬‬

‫‪9‬‬
‫‪27‬‬
‫‪× 3 = 7.5 +‬‬
‫‪= 7.5 + 1.421 = 8.921 k.g‬‬
‫‪19‬‬
‫‪19‬‬

‫‪Med = A+‬‬
‫‪= 7.5 +‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺎ‬
‫• ﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫• ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ )‪ (25‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ‪ .‬ﰒ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺴﺘ ﻘﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺃﻓﻘﻲ ﺣﱴ ﻳﻠﻘﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ )‪. (a‬‬
‫• ﺇﺳﻘﺎﻁ ﻋﻤﻮﺩ ﺭﺃﺳﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ )‪ (a‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﳋﻂ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪. Med = 8.6‬‬

‫ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻻ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻄﺮﻓﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺳﻬﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺃ ﻱ ﻗﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪ .‬ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‬

‫‪a ≠ Med‬‬

‫‪∑ | x − Med | ≤ ∑ | x − a | ,‬‬

‫‪41‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺃﻧﻪ ﻻ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻮ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻴﻤ ﺘﲔ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﲰﻲ ‪nominal‬‬

‫‪ 3 /2 /3‬ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ‬

‫‪Mode‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺷﻴﻮﻋﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻜﺜﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ ،‬ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ) ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ( ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺋﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ )ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻕ(‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ : A‬ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ) ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﻷﻛﱪ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ( ‪.‬‬

‫‪d1‬‬
‫‪d2‬‬
‫‪L‬‬

‫‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ = )ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ – ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺳﺎﺑﻖ(‬
‫‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ = ) ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ – ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻻﺣﻖ(‬
‫‪ :‬ﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺌــﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ = ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﻷﻛﱪ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ )‪(5-3‬‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﲑﺕ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻃﻼﺏ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺃﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰎ ﺭﺻﺪ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﰲ ﻣﻘﺮﺭ ‪ 122‬ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬
‫‪67‬‬
‫‪90‬‬
‫‪80‬‬
‫‪85‬‬

‫‪58‬‬
‫‪95‬‬
‫‪86‬‬
‫‪72‬‬

‫‪70‬‬
‫‪85‬‬
‫‪65‬‬
‫‪73‬‬

‫‪65‬‬
‫‪77‬‬
‫‪76‬‬
‫‪69‬‬

‫‪77‬‬
‫‪65‬‬
‫‪88‬‬
‫‪69‬‬

‫‪77‬‬
‫‪93‬‬
‫‪65‬‬
‫‪73‬‬

‫‪77‬‬
‫‪75‬‬
‫‪80‬‬
‫‪85‬‬

‫‪75‬‬
‫‪60‬‬
‫‪69‬‬
‫‪69‬‬

‫‪77‬‬
‫‪68‬‬
‫‪65‬‬
‫‪73‬‬

‫‪80‬‬
‫‪88‬‬
‫‪80‬‬
‫‪85‬‬

‫ﻗﺴﻢ ﻭﻗﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳊﻴﻮﺍﱐ‬

‫‪42‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬
‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﻮﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ = ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻭﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ ﻣﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ = ‪ 77‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ‪ 77‬ﺗﻜﺮﺭﺕ ‪ 4‬ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻭﻗﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺒﺎﺗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻟﻴﺲ ﳍﺎ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻨﻮﺍﻝ‬

‫ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ‪ 65‬ﺗﻜﺮﺭﺕ ‪3‬‬

‫ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻨﻮﺍﻻﻥ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍﺕ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ = ‪65‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ‪ 80‬ﺗﻜﺮﺭﺕ ‪3‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ = ‪80‬‬

‫ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍ ﺕ‬

‫ﻳ ﻮﺟﺪ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﻫ ﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ‪ 69‬ﺗﻜﺮﺭﺕ ‪3‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ = ‪69‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍﺕ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ = ‪73‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ‪ 73‬ﺗﻜﺮﺭﺕ ‪3‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ = ‪85‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍﺕ‬

‫ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳊﻴﻮﺍﱐ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ‪ 85‬ﺗﻜﺮﺭﺕ ‪3‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍﺕ‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ )‪(6-3‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺗ ﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ 30‬ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ﳍﺎ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪14 - 17‬‬

‫‪11 -‬‬

‫‪8-‬‬

‫‪5-‬‬

‫‪2-‬‬

‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪7‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ‪f‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ﻟﻸﺳﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻕ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﻞ‬
‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ ، ( 12 -3‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﻷﻛﱪ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ‪(8-11) :‬‬

‫‪43‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻕ ‪ ، d‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪d1 = (10 − 7) = 3 d 2 = (10 − 5) = 5‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻟﻴﺔ )‪ ، ( A = 8‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ )‪( L = 3‬‬

‫• ﻭﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﲝﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﰱ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ‪ .‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪d1‬‬
‫‪×L‬‬
‫‪d1 + d 2‬‬

‫‪Mod = A +‬‬

‫‪3 × 3 = 8 + 1 . 125 = 9 . 125‬‬
‫‪3+5‬‬

‫‪=8+‬‬

‫‪ 3/3‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺷﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬

‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﰲ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(1 -3‬‬

‫• ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ = ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ = ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ) ﻣﻠﺘﻮﻱ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﲔ ( ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ < ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ < ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ‬
‫• ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺳﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍ ﺀ ) ﻣﻠﺘﻮﻱ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﺭ ( ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ > ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ > ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﺎﻡ )‪( 7-3‬‬

‫‪44‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺑﺴﺤﺐ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﻋﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺒﺄﺓ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﺏ ‪ ،‬ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ‬
‫‪ 5‬ﻟﺘﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺗﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻼﺡ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺋﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫‪121‬‬

‫‪123‬‬

‫‪123‬‬

‫‪121‬‬

‫‪124 119‬‬

‫‪123‬‬

‫‪119‬‬

‫‪123‬‬

‫‪115‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺣﺪﺩ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﻞ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪:‬‬
‫‪1211‬‬
‫‪= 121.1‬‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪∑x‬‬
‫‪n‬‬

‫=‪x‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪(n + 1) / 2 = (10 + 1) / 2 = 5.5 :‬‬

‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺎ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ = ‪ ، 10‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺯﻭﺟ ﻲ ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ = ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺘﲔ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪(6 , 5‬‬
‫‪= 122‬‬

‫‪244‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪121 + 123‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫= ‪Med‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ 123‬ﺗﻜﺮﺭﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫‪Mod = 123‬‬
‫ﻭﲟﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ > ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ > ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻼﺡ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ )‪( 8-3‬‬

‫‪45‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﻌﺮﺽ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ 100‬ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﰲ ﻣﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﺟﺮ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻳﺎﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪170 - 190‬‬

‫‪150 -‬‬

‫‪130 -‬‬

‫‪110 -‬‬

‫‪90 -‬‬

‫‪70 -‬‬

‫‪50 -‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﺟﺮ‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪28‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﻞ‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪x‬‬
‫‪fx‬‬
‫‪480‬‬
‫‪1200‬‬
‫‪2800‬‬
‫‪2400‬‬
‫‪2100‬‬
‫‪1280‬‬
‫‪1080‬‬
‫‪11340‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ) ‪(x‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮ ﺍﺭﺍﺕ ) ‪( f‬‬

‫‪60‬‬
‫‪80‬‬
‫‪100‬‬
‫‪120‬‬
‫‪140‬‬
‫‪160‬‬
‫‪180‬‬

‫‪8‬‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪28‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪100‬‬

‫‪11340‬‬
‫‪= 113.4 R.S‬‬
‫‪100‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪∑ fx‬‬
‫‪∑f‬‬

‫ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﺮ‬
‫‪50 – 70‬‬
‫‪70 – 90‬‬
‫‪90 – 110‬‬
‫‪110 - 130‬‬
‫‪130 - 150‬‬
‫‪150 – 170‬‬
‫‪170 - 190‬‬
‫ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫=‪x‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪Med‬‬
‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪(n/2 =100/2 =50) :‬‬

‫ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺻﺎﻋﺪ‬

‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫) ‪(50‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪50‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪70‬‬

‫‪23 ← f1‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪90‬‬

‫‪51 ← f1‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪110‬‬

‫‪71‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪130‬‬

‫‪86‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪150‬‬

‫‪94‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪170‬‬

‫‪100‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪190‬‬

‫‪46‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪= 50 , f1 = 23 , f2 = 51 , A = 90 , L = 110 − 90 = 20‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻫﻰ ‪:‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫‪− f1‬‬
‫‪50 − 23‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪× L = 90 +‬‬
‫‪× 20‬‬
‫‪Med = A +‬‬
‫‪51 − 23‬‬
‫‪f 2 − f1‬‬
‫‪R.S‬‬

‫‪= 90 + 19.286 = 109.3‬‬

‫‪540‬‬
‫‪28‬‬

‫‪× 20 = 90 +‬‬

‫‪27‬‬
‫‪28‬‬

‫‪= 90 +‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪Mod‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻟ ﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻫﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﻷﻛﱪ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺃﻛﱪ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ = ‪ ، 28‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻳﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ )‪. (90 - 110‬‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻕ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ‪A = 90 :‬‬

‫‪d 2 = 28 − 20 = 8 , d1 = 28 − 15 = 13‬‬

‫ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪L = 110 − 90 = 20 :‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪d1‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪260‬‬
‫‪× L = 90 +‬‬
‫‪× 20 = 90 +‬‬
‫‪= 102.4 R.S‬‬
‫‪d1 + d2‬‬
‫‪13 + 8‬‬
‫‪21‬‬

‫‪Mod = A+‬‬

‫• ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪x = 113.4 :‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪Med = 109.3 :‬‬

‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻥ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ < ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ < ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪Mod = 1024 :‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻮ ﺯﻳﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ‬

‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 4/3‬ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﺎﺕ ‪Quartiles‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺭﺑﻊ ﺃﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺛﻼﺙ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﱯ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﺎﺕ‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺭﺑﻊ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 25%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴ ﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ‬

‫‪47‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪. Q1‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 50%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ، Q2‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪.‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺛﻼﺙ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﻉ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 75%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪. Q3‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ) ‪ ( 3 -3‬ﻳﺒﲔ ﺃﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(3 -3‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻭﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﺪﺩﻫﺎ ‪ ، n‬ﻭﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪X(n‬‬
‫‪n‬‬

‫)‪X(3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬

‫<‬

‫<‬

‫)‪X(2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫<‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪X(1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬

‫‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺮﺗﺒﺔ‬

‫‪i‬‬
‫‪R = (n + 1) ×  ‬‬
‫‪ 4‬‬

‫• ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪: (Qi ) ، i‬‬

‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ R‬ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﺻﺤﻴﺤﺎ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑ ﻴﻊ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪. Q i = X(R‬‬

‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ R‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﻛﺴﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ) ‪ (Qi‬ﻳﻘﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ‪ ، X(l)< Q i < X(u) :‬ﻭﻣﻦ‬
‫ﰒ ﳛﺴﺐ ) ‪ (Qi‬ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪( 9 -3‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﻠﻴﺐ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﺘﺮ ﻟﻠﺒﻘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺑﻘﺎﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﲑﺕ ﻣـﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪30‬‬

‫‪27‬‬

‫‪18‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪34 29‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪29‬‬

‫‪23‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺗﻌﻠﻴﻘﻚ؟‬

‫ﺍﳊﻞ ‪:‬‬
‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪30.5‬‬

‫‪28‬‬

‫‪22.25‬‬

‫ﻗﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ‬

‫‪48‬‬
‫‪34‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪30‬‬

‫‪29‬‬

‫‪29‬‬

‫‪27‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪23‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪18‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪7‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺮﺗﺒﺔ‬

‫‪5.5‬‬

‫‪8.25‬‬

‫‪2.75‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ) ‪: (Q1‬‬
‫‪i‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻫﻲ ‪R = (n + 1) ×   = (10 + 1) ×   = 2.75 :‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺘﲔ ‪ ، (20 < Q1 < 23) :‬ﻭﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 14 -3‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪l = 2, R = 2.75 , x(l ) = 20 .x(u ) = 23‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ‪:‬‬
‫•‬

‫‪Q1 = x(l ) + ( R − l ) × ( x(u ) − x(l ) ) = 20 + 0.75(23 − 20) = 22.25‬‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ) ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ( ‪Q2‬‬
‫‪i‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻫﻲ ‪R = (n + 1) ×   = (10 + 1) ×   = 5.5 :‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺘﲔ ‪ ، (27 < Q2 < 29) :‬ﻭﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 14 -3‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪l = 5, R = 5.5 , x(l ) = 27 .x(u ) = 29‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ‪:‬‬
‫•‬

‫‪Q2 = x(l ) + ( R − l ) × ( x(u ) − x(l ) ) = 27 + 0.5(29 − 27) = 28‬‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪Q3‬‬
‫‪i‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻫﻲ ‪R = (n + 1) ×   = (10 + 1) ×   = 8.25 :‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟ ﺚ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺘﲔ ‪ ، (30 < Q3 < 32) :‬ﻭﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 14 -3‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪l = 8, R = 8.25 , x( l ) = 30 .x(u ) = 32‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Q3 = x(l ) + ( R − l ) × ( x(u ) − x(l ) ) = 30 + 0.25(32 − 30) = 30.5‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫• ‪ 25%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺑﻘﺎﺭ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 22.25‬ﻟﺘﺮ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫• ‪ 50%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺑﻘﺎﺭ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 28‬ﻟﺘﺮ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫• ‪ 75%‬ﻣ ﻦ ﺍﻷﺑﻘﺎﺭ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ ﻋﻦ ‪ 30.5‬ﻟﺘﺮ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ‬

‫‪49‬‬

‫ﲤﺎﺭﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺃﺟﺐ ﻋﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ ‪ :‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﻛﻴﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﻜﻌﺐ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺎ )‪ ، (x‬ﻟـﻌﺪﺩ ‪10‬‬

‫ﳏ ﻄﺎﺕ ﲢﻠﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪216 210 165 90 216‬‬
‫‪-1‬‬

‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ‪:‬‬

‫‪-2‬‬

‫‪ ∑ x‬ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪ (a‬ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﺼﻞ‬

‫)‪1000 (a‬‬

‫‪107‬‬

‫)‪ (b‬ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻰ ﺍﳌﺘﺼﻞ‬

‫)‪1958 (b‬‬

‫‪291‬‬

‫‪105‬‬

‫)‪ (c‬ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻰ‬

‫) ‪195.8 (c‬‬

‫‪-3‬‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱴ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 50%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ‪:‬‬

‫‪-4‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ‪:‬‬

‫‪-5‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰉ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪ (a‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‬

‫)‪ (a‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‬

‫)‪216 (a‬‬
‫‪-6‬‬

‫)‪ (b‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ‬

‫)‪ (c‬ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ‬

‫)‪ (d‬ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ‬

‫)‪1958 (b‬‬

‫)‪195.8 (c‬‬

‫)‪213 (d‬‬

‫)‪1958 (b‬‬

‫)‪195.8 (c‬‬

‫)‪347 (d‬‬

‫)‪1958 (b‬‬

‫)‪ (b‬ﺳﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ‬

‫)‪195.8 (c‬‬

‫)‪ (c‬ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ‬

‫)‪216 (d‬‬

‫)‪ (d‬ﻏﲑ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻑ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﶈﻄﺎﺕ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﳏﻄﺔ ‪ 50‬ﺃﻟﻒ ﻛﻴﻠﻮ ﻣﺘﺮ‬

‫ﻣﻜﻌﺐ ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰉ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻫﻮ ‪.‬‬
‫)‪216 (a‬‬

‫‪-10‬‬

‫)‪ (b‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ‬

‫)‪ (c‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬

‫)‪ (d‬ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬

‫ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎ ﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﳍﺎ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬
‫)‪ (a‬ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ‬

‫‪-9‬‬

‫)‪216 (d‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬
‫)‪213 (a‬‬

‫‪-8‬‬

‫)‪ (d‬ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﱮ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬
‫)‪216 (a‬‬

‫‪-7‬‬

‫‪216‬‬

‫‪342‬‬

‫‪x:‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬

‫‪y = 0.5 x‬‬

‫)‪216 (a‬‬

‫)‪1958 (b‬‬

‫)‪195.8 (c‬‬

‫)‪245.8 (d‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰉ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱴ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫)‪97.9 (b‬‬

‫)‪195.8 (c‬‬

‫‪y‬‬

‫)‪245.8 (d‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪50‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻯ ﻟـﻌ ﺪﺩ ‪ 50‬ﻣﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﱰﺭﻋﺔ ﲟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﻤﺎﻃﻢ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ‬
‫ﺩﻭﱎ ‪.‬‬
‫‪19.5 – 22.5‬‬

‫‪16.5-‬‬

‫‪13.5 -‬‬

‫‪10.5 -‬‬

‫– ‪7.5‬‬

‫– ‪4.5‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﺩﻭﱎ‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﻟﻺﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ )‪( 20 -11‬‬
‫‪-11‬‬

‫ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬
‫)‪2 (b‬‬

‫)‪1 (a‬‬
‫‪-12‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻌﺔ ﻫﻮ‬
‫)‪16 (b‬‬
‫)‪14.5 (a‬‬

‫‪-13‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬
‫)‪9 (a‬‬

‫‪-14‬‬

‫)‪8 (b‬‬

‫)‪0.20 (b‬‬

‫‪-15‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬

‫‪-16‬‬

‫)‪225 (b‬‬
‫)‪225 (a‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰉ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻯ‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫)‪13.5 (b‬‬

‫‪-17‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﱴ ﻳﻘﻊ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻫﻰ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪13.5 – (a‬‬
‫)‪16.5- 19.5 (b‬‬
‫‪16.5‬‬

‫‪-18‬‬

‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻫﻰ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪50 (a‬‬

‫)‪1.50 (d‬‬

‫)‪1 (c‬‬

‫)‪10 (b‬‬

‫)‪50 (c‬‬
‫)‪13.62 (c‬‬

‫)‪14 – (c‬‬
‫‪17‬‬

‫)‪25 (c‬‬

‫)‪681 (d‬‬
‫)‪681 (d‬‬

‫)‪10.5 – 13.5 (d‬‬

‫)‪1 (d‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻯ ‪.‬‬
‫)‪13.9 (a‬‬

‫)‪13.5 (b‬‬

‫)‪15 (c‬‬

‫)‪12.5 (d‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻯ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪14 (a‬‬

‫‪-21‬‬

‫)‪10 (c‬‬

‫)‪3 (d‬‬

‫ﻫﻰ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪ f ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ ∑ fx‬ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻯ‬

‫)‪8.33 (a‬‬

‫‪-20‬‬

‫) ‪15 (c‬‬

‫)‪13.5 (d‬‬

‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱮ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻯ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪0.30 (a‬‬

‫‪-19‬‬

‫)‪(c‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫)‪5 (d‬‬

‫)‪15 (b‬‬

‫)‪(c‬‬

‫‪13.5‬‬

‫)‪14.625 (d‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ‪ 20 ، 19 ، 16‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ (a‬ﻣﻠﺘﻮﻯ ﺟﻬﺔ‬

‫)‪ (b‬ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ‬

‫)‪ (c‬ﺳﺎﻟﺐ‬

‫)‪ (d‬ﻏﲑ ﳏﺪﺩ‬

‫‪51‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﲔ‬

‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ ‪ :‬ﻗﻢ ﺑﺘﺴﺠﻴ ﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻹﺳﻢ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻗﻢ ﺑﺘﻈﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻣﻦ ) ‪ ، ( 21 – 1‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﻟﻺﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﱴ ‪‬ﺎ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﲔ ﻣﻈﻠﻠﲔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺭﻗﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪11‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪14‬‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫‪17‬‬
‫‪18‬‬
‫‪19‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫‪21‬‬

‫)‪(b) (a‬‬

‫)‪(c‬‬

‫)‪(d‬‬

‫‪52‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼــــــﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑـــﻊ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ‬

‫‪ 1/4‬ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺃ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺣﺪﻫﺎ ﻻ ﻳ ﻜﻔﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﲟﺎ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻛﺒﲑ ﺑﲔ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﻭﺗﺒﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﺒﺎﻋﺪ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫‪88‬‬

‫‪67‬‬

‫‪85‬‬

‫‪81‬‬

‫‪78‬‬

‫‪70‬‬

‫‪63‬‬

‫‪77‬‬

‫‪74‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪78‬‬

‫‪77‬‬

‫‪78‬‬

‫‪73‬‬

‫ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‬

‫ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻮ ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﲝﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻜﻞ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻜ ﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪76‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﲡﺎﻧﺴﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﳉﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﻮﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﺪﻯ ﲡﺎﻧﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻧ ﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺣﻮﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻃﺢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﻮﻑ ﻧﺮﻛﺰ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2/4‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ‬

‫‪Dispersion Measurements‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1/2/4‬اﻟﻤﺪى‬

‫‪Rang‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﺃﺑﺴﻂ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ‪ ،‬ﻭﳛﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺻﻴﻐﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻨ ﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪53‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ )‪(1-4‬‬
‫ﰎ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ ‪ 9‬ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﲡﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﲟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰎ ﺗﺴﻤﻴﺪﻫﺎ ﺑﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﲰﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﺴﻔﻮﺭﻳﺔ‬
‫‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻦ ‪ /‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫‪5.03‬‬

‫‪4.63‬‬

‫‪5.08‬‬

‫‪5.18‬‬

‫‪5.18‬‬

‫‪5.29‬‬

‫‪5.4‬‬

‫‪6.21‬‬

‫‪4.8‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺪﻯ = ﺃﻛﱪ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺓ – ﺃﻗﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺓ‬
‫ﺃﻛﱪ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺓ = ‪6.21‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺓ = ‪4.63‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪Rang=Max-Min=6.21-4.63 =1.58‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ 1.58‬ﻃﻦ ‪ /‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ )‪(2-4‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ 60‬ﻣﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﱰﺭﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺬﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﺩﻭﱎ ‪.‬‬
‫‪40-45‬‬

‫‪35-40‬‬

‫‪30-35‬‬

‫‪25-30‬‬

‫‪20-25‬‬

‫‪15-20‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪18‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﱰﺭﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺬﺭﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﻯ = ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ – ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‬
‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ‪(40+45)/2=85/2=42.5 :‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻷ ﻭﱃ ‪(15+20)/2=35/2=17.5 :‬‬

‫‪Rang = 42.5 − 17.5 = 25‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ 25‬ﺩﻭﱎ‬

‫ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺃﻧﻪ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ﻭﺳﻬﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻳﻜﺜﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥ ﻋﻦ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻘﺲ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﳉﻮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻃﻮﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﺍﳉﻮﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﻣﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﳉﻮﺩﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻋﻴﻮﺑﻪ‬

‫‪54‬‬
‫• ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﲔ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2/2/4‬ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ‬

‫)‪Quartile Deviation (Q‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﲔ ﻣﺘﻄﺮﻓﺘﲔ ‪ ،‬ﳘﺎ ﺃﺻﻐﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻛﱪ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛ ﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻗﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺷﺎﺫﺓ‪ ،‬ﺗﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻛﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻟﻠﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻏﲑ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﳉﺄ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻟﻠﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻬﻤﻞ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻄﺮﻓﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺬﺍ‬
‫ﻻ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺷﺎﺫﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺑﺎﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑ ﻴﻌﻲ )‪ ، (Q‬ﻭﳛﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ Q 1‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺮﺑ ﻴ ﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ Q 3 ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴ ﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺑﻴﻨﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻛﻴﻒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌ ﺮﻑ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﺑ ﻨﺼﻒ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌ ﻲ = ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 3 -4‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪ ، ( 1 -4‬ﰒ ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬
‫• ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺎ‬

‫•‬

‫‪6.21‬‬

‫‪5.4‬‬

‫‪5.29‬‬

‫‪5.18‬‬

‫‪5.18‬‬

‫‪5.08‬‬

‫‪5.03‬‬

‫‪4.8‬‬

‫‪4.63‬‬

‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪7‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺮﺗﺒﺔ‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑ ﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪Q 1‬‬

‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑ ﻴ ﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪:‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫‪. (n + 1)  = (9 + 1)(0.25) = 2.5‬‬

‫‪x(l ) = x(2) = 4.8 , x(u ) = x(3) = 5.03 , R = 2.5 l = 2 , R − l = 0.5‬‬
‫‪,‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫) ) ‪Q1 = x(l ) + (r − l )( x(u ) − x(l‬‬
‫‪= 4.8 + 0.5(5.03 − 4.8) = 4.915‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ) ‪(Q 3‬‬

‫‪55‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪(n + 1)  = (9 + 1)(0.75) = 7.5‬‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x(l ) = x(7) = 5.29 , x(u ) = x(8) = 5.4 , R = 7.5 l = 7 , R − l = 0.5‬‬
‫‪,‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫) ) ‪Q3 = x(l ) + ( R − l )( x(u) − x(l‬‬
‫‪= 5.29 + 0.5(5.4 − 5.29) = 5.345‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ‬

‫‪Q − Q1 5.345 − 4.915‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 0.215‬‬
‫‪Q= 3‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ 0.215‬ﻃﻦ ‪ /‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 4 -4‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪ ( 2 -4‬ﰲ ﺣﺴ ﺎ ﺏ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـــﻞ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌ ﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ‬
‫•‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ) ‪(Q 1‬‬

‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑ ﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪:‬‬

‫‪n(1/4)= 60(0.25)= 15‬‬

‫‪f = 15 , f1 = 12 , f 2 = 27 , A= 25 , L = 5‬‬
‫‪f − f1‬‬
‫‪L‬‬
‫‪f 2 − f1‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫‪Q1 = A +‬‬

‫‪= 25 + 15 − 12 ( 5 ) = 25 + 3 ( 5 ) = 26‬‬
‫‪15‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ) ‪(Q 3‬‬

‫‪27 − 12‬‬

‫‪56‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪:‬‬
‫‪f = 45 , f1 = 45 , f 2 = 57 , A = 35 , L = 5‬‬
‫‪n(3/4)= 60(0.75)= 45‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫‪f − f1‬‬
‫‪L‬‬
‫‪f 2 − f1‬‬

‫‪Q3 = A +‬‬

‫)‪(0‬‬
‫‪= 35 + 45 − 45 (5 ) = 35 +‬‬
‫‪( 5) = 35‬‬

‫• ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ‪.‬‬

‫‪57 − 45‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪Q − Q1 35 − 26‬‬
‫‪Q= 3‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 4.5‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺣﺔ ‪ 4.5‬ﺃﻟﻒ ﺩﻭﱎ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻛﻤﻘﻴ ﺎﺱ ﻟﻠﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺷﺎﺫﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻧﻪ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ﻭﺳﻬﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻋﻴﻮﺑﻪ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧﻪ ﻻ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 3/2/4‬ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬

‫)‪Mean Deviation (MD‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻨ ﻪ ﲟﺘ ﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻭﺳﻄﻬﺎ ﺍﳊـﺴﺎﰊ ‪،‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ x1, x2 ,..., xn‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺀﺍ ﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺃﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ) ‪x = ∑ x n‬‬

‫( ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ )‪ (MD‬ﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ) ‪( 5 -4‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟ ﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﳋﻤ ﺲ ﳏﻄﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﺑﺎﳌﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﻜﻌﺐ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪4 5 2 10 7‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬
‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪( 4 -4‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫‪x = ∑ = 28 = 5.6‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪5‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫‪57‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓ ﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ‬

‫‪x − 5.6‬‬

‫)‪(x − x ) = (x − 5.6‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪1.6‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪3.6‬‬
‫‪4.4‬‬
‫‪1.4‬‬
‫‪11.6‬‬

‫‪4 - 5.6 = -1.6‬‬
‫‪5 - 5.6 = -0.6‬‬
‫‪2 - 5.6 = -3.6‬‬
‫‪10 - 5.6 = 4.4‬‬
‫‪7 - 5.6 = 1.4‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪Sum‬‬

‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x − x 11 .6‬‬
‫∑ = ‪MD‬‬
‫=‬
‫) ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﻜﻌﺐ( ‪= 2 .32‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪5‬‬

‫ﻭ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﳛﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ f‬ﻫﻮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪ x ،‬ﻫﻮ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪x ،‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ) ‪( 6 -4‬‬
‫ﻳﺒﲔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ 40‬ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪14 – 17‬‬

‫‪11 – 14‬‬

‫‪8 - 11‬‬

‫‪5-8‬‬

‫‪2-5‬‬

‫ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ‬

‫ﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳊـــــﻞ‬
‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄ ﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ، ( 5 -4‬ﻭﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻵﰐ‬
‫• ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ‬

‫‪x− x f‬‬

‫‪x− x‬‬

‫‪7.2‬‬
‫‪33.6‬‬
‫‪15.6‬‬
‫‪18‬‬
‫‪38.4‬‬
‫‪112.8‬‬

‫‪7.2‬‬
‫‪4.2‬‬
‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪1.8‬‬
‫‪4.8‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬

‫ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‬

‫‪x f‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫∑ =‪x‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪= 10.7‬‬

‫‪428‬‬
‫‪40‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪3.5‬‬
‫‪52‬‬
‫‪123.5‬‬
‫‪125‬‬
‫‪124‬‬
‫‪428‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺳﺮ‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪f‬‬

‫‪3.5‬‬
‫‪6.5‬‬
‫‪9.5‬‬
‫‪12.5‬‬
‫‪15.5‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪40‬‬

‫ﺣﺪﻭﺩ‬

‫ﺍﻹﻧ ﻔﺎﻕ‬
‫‪2-5‬‬
‫‪5-8‬‬
‫‪8-11‬‬
‫‪11-14‬‬
‫‪14-17‬‬
‫‪sum‬‬

‫‪58‬‬

‫‪∑ x − x f 112 . 8‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 2 . 82‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪40‬‬

‫= ‪MD‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ﻫﻮ ‪ 2.82‬ﺃﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻳﻌﺎﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫• ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻪ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 4/2/4‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬

‫‪Variance‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻛﺜﺮﻫﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣ ﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﻋـﻦ ﻣﺘﻮﺳـﻂ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻭﺳﻄﻬﺎ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ) ‪( σ 2‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺘﻜﻦ‪x1, x2 ,..., xN :‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺒـﺎﻳﻦ‬

‫ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ) σ 2‬ﺳﻴﺠﻤﺎ ( ﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ µ‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻯ ﺃﻥ ‪µ = ∑ x N :‬‬

‫‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـ ﺎﻝ ) ‪( 7 -4‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺬﺍﺋﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﻪ ‪ 15‬ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﳍﺆﻻﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻤ ﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪11‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪14‬‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪7‬‬

‫‪14‬‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰎ ﲨﻌﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ‬
‫•‬

‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪.( 6 -4‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪µ‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪∑x‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫‪(150) = 10‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪15‬‬

‫= )‪(5 + 13 + +7 + ... + 12 + 10‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪15‬‬

‫=‪µ‬‬
‫=‬

‫‪59‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ‪∑ ( x − µ ) 2‬‬
‫ﲟﺎ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪∑ ( x − µ ) 2 = 130‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪2 130‬‬
‫(‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫‪u‬‬
‫)‬
‫∑‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫= ‪σ‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 8.67‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪( x − µ)2‬‬

‫)‪(x − µ‬‬

‫‪25‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪130‬‬

‫‪5-10 = -5‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪-3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪-1‬‬
‫‪-4‬‬
‫‪-2‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪-4‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪14‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪14‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪11‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪150‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 6 -4‬ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﻓﻚ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻉ ‪∑ ( x − µ ) 2‬‬

‫ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪ 2‬‬
‫‪∑ ( x − µ ) 2 = ∑  x − 2 xµ + µ ‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫‪= ∑ x2 − 2µ ∑ x + ∑ µ 2‬‬
‫‪= ∑ x2 − 2 Nµ 2 + Nµ 2‬‬
‫‪= ∑ x2 − Nµ 2‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﺘﺐ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x2 − Nµ 2 1‬‬
‫∑‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫= ‪σ‬‬
‫‪= ∑ x2 − µ 2‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫‪N‬‬

‫‪60‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺘﻪ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ )‪ ، (7 -4‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﳓﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﲔ ‪∑ x , ∑ x2 :‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﻵﰐ‬

‫‪:‬‬
‫ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‬

‫‪x2‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪∑ x = 150 , ∑ x2 = 1630‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪∑ x = (150) = 10‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫‪15‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻫﻮ‬

‫ﺍﳋﱪﺓ‬

‫=‪µ‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪∑x −µ‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1630 − 10 2 = 108 .67 − 100 = 8 . 67‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ )‪. ( 6 -4‬‬

‫= ‪σ2‬‬

‫‪25‬‬
‫‪169‬‬
‫‪49‬‬
‫‪196‬‬
‫‪144‬‬
‫‪81‬‬
‫‪36‬‬
‫‪64‬‬
‫‪100‬‬
‫‪169‬‬
‫‪196‬‬
‫‪36‬‬
‫‪121‬‬
‫‪144‬‬
‫‪100‬‬

‫‪5‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪14‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪14‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪11‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫‪1630‬‬

‫‪150‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ) ‪( s‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪σ 2‬‬

‫ﻏﲑ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻋﻨﺪﺋﺬ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬

‫ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﳛ ﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻛﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻋـﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ n‬ﻫﻲ ‪x1 , x2 ,..., xn ،‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ s2‬ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ x‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻘﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪x = ∑ x n :‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 8 -4‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻴﺰ ﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬

‫‪61‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ) ‪( 8 -4‬‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪ ( 7 -4‬ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 5‬ﻋﻤﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﺠﻞ ﻋﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪.‬‬
‫‪9‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊــﻞ‬
‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ، ( 8 -4‬ﻭﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪x = ∑ x = (8 + 13 + 10 + 5 + 9) = (45) = 9‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ‬

‫‪(x − x )2‬‬

‫∑‬

‫ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ‪x‬‬

‫‪45‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪-4‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪-1‬‬

‫) ‪(x − x‬‬

‫‪34‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪16‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪16‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪( x − x )2‬‬

‫ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪(x − x )2 = 34‬‬

‫∑ ‪،‬‬

‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫(‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫)‬
‫∑‬
‫= ‪s‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪n −1‬‬

‫‪34‬‬
‫‪34‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 8 .5‬‬
‫)‪( 5 − 1‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫• ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ ، 8.5‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟ ﻮﻗﺖ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺤﻴﺰ ﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ‬
‫‪.‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫ﺗﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﺤﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 8 -4‬ﺇﱃ ﺻﻴﻐﺔ ﺳﻬﻠﺔ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﲢﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻛﺴﺮﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻﺳﺘ ﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺗﺒـﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻵﰐ ‪.‬‬

‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﻓﻚ ﺍ ‪‬ﻤﻮﻉ ‪∑ ( x − x) 2‬‬

‫ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎ ﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫‪62‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪ 2‬‬
‫‪∑ ( x − x) 2 = ∑  x − 2 xx + x ‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫‪= ∑ x2 − 2 x∑ x + ∑ x 2‬‬
‫‪= ∑ x2 − 2nx 2 + nx 2‬‬
‫‪= ∑ x2 − nx 2‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻜﺘﺐ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪1 ‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪ ∑ x − nx ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪n −1‬‬

‫= ‪s2‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺘﻪ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 9 -4‬ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌ ﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪45‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪439‬‬

‫‪81‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪100‬‬

‫‪169‬‬

‫‪64‬‬

‫ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ‪x‬‬
‫‪x2‬‬

‫• ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 9 -4‬ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ∑ x2 − nx 2 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪n −1‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫‪1 ‬‬
‫‪2  1 (34 ) = 8 . 5‬‬
‫= ‪ 439 − 5 ( 9 ) ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪5 −1‬‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫= ‪s2‬‬
‫=‬

‫• ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 10 -4‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1 ‬‬
‫‪2 − ( ∑ x) ‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫∑‬
‫‪n −1‬‬
‫‪n ‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪ 1‬‬
‫‪ = (439 − 405 ) = 1 (34 ) = 8 .5‬‬
‫‪ 4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫= ‪s2‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫‪1 ‬‬
‫‪( 45 ) 2‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪439 −‬‬
‫‪5 −1‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪63‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪Standard Deviation‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻛﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠـﻲ ﳎﻤـﻮﻉ ﻣﺮﺑﻌـﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻤﺸﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﻊ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪،‬‬
‫ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ ، 8.5‬ﻓﻠﻴﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍ ﳌﻨﻄﻖ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻘﻮﻝ ‪ " ،‬ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﻫﻮ ‪ 8.5‬ﺳﻨﺔ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﻊ " ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﳉـﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﲔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﻳﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻗﻴـﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﳓﺮ ﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﳉﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﺐ ﻟﻠﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪ ،‬ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﰲ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪ ( 7 -4‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ) ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ( ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ‬
‫) ‪ ( σ‬ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪∑x −µ‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫‪8 .67 = 2 . 94‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫= ‪1630 − 10 2‬‬
‫‪15‬‬

‫= ‪σ‬‬
‫=‬

‫ﰲ ﻫﺬ ﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﻫﻮ ‪ 2.94‬ﺳﻨﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﰲ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ )‪ ( 8 -4‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪s‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ‬

‫‪:‬‬

‫‪1  2 (∑ x) 2 ‬‬
‫=‪s‬‬
‫‪∑x −‬‬
‫‪n ‬‬
‫‪n −1 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪1 ‬‬
‫‪(45) 2 ‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪439‬‬
‫‪405‬‬
‫‪439‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫=‬
‫(‬
‫)‬
‫‪(34) = 2.92‬‬
‫‪5 −1‬‬
‫‪5 ‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪ 2.92‬ﺳﻨﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻮﺑﺔ‬

‫=‬

‫‪‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺒﻮﺑﺔ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﳛﺴﺐ‬

‫ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪64‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ‬

‫‪f‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪،‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﻣﺮ ﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪،‬‬

‫‪ x‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ )‪(∑ xf n‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ) ‪ ، (n = ∑ f‬ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﲢﺖ ﺍﳉﺬﺭ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ )‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪،‬‬

‫‪n‬‬

‫‪. (s‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ) ‪( 9 -4‬‬
‫ﰲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪ ، ( 6 -4‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﳓ ﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ﻟﻸﺳﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﻗﺎﺭﻥ ﺑـﲔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ﻟﻸﺳﺮﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳊـــــﻞ‬
‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗـﻢ ) ‪ ، ( 12 -4‬ﻭﺳﻮﻑ ﻧﻄﺒﻖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺬﺍ ﻧﻜﻮﻥ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﲔ ‪. ∑ xf , ∑ x2 f :‬‬

‫‪n = ∑ f = 40‬‬
‫‪∑ xf = 428‬‬
‫‪∑ x2 f = 5008‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬

‫‪x2 f‬‬

‫‪xf‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪x‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ‬

‫‪f‬‬

‫‪12.25‬‬

‫‪3.5‬‬

‫‪3.5‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪2-5‬‬

‫‪338‬‬

‫‪52‬‬

‫‪6.5‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪5-8‬‬

‫‪9.5‬‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫‪8-11‬‬

‫‪1562.5‬‬

‫‪125‬‬

‫‪12.5‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪11-14‬‬

‫‪1922‬‬

‫‪124‬‬

‫‪15.5‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪14-17‬‬

‫‪5008‬‬

‫‪428‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪sum‬‬

‫‪123.5 1173.25‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫‪)2‬‬

‫‪( xf‬‬
‫∑ ‪∑ x2 f −‬‬
‫‪n‬‬

‫‪5008 − 4579 . 6‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪39‬‬

‫‪n −1‬‬

‫=‪s‬‬

‫‪( 428 ) 2‬‬
‫‪5008 −‬‬
‫‪40‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪10 . 984615‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪= 3 . 314‬‬

‫‪40 − 1‬‬

‫ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ‪ 3.314‬ﺃﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭ ﻓﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻘﻴـﺎﺱ ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳌﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ )‪. (2.88‬‬

‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺻﻔﺮﺍ ‪ ،‬ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪a, a, a, …,a‬‬

‫‪ x:‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ a‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ ، s x = 0 :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪s x‬‬

‫ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﳓـﺮﺍﻑ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪. x‬‬
‫• ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺿﻴﻒ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺇﱃ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ‬
‫) ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ( ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ( ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧـﺖ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪ ، x1 , x2 ,..., xn‬ﻭﰎ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ‪ a‬ﺇﱃ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪x‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍ ﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳉ ﺪﻳـﺪﺓ ‪ ( y = x + a ) : x1 + a , x2 + a ,..., xn + a :‬ﻫـﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪: s y = sx‬‬
‫‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ) ‪( 10 -4‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻏﺬﺍﺋﻲ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻟﻠﺘﺴﻤﲔ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺯﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺟﺔ ‪ 0.5‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ ‪ ،‬ﺳﺤﺒﺖ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺩﺟﺎﺝ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 5‬ﺩﺟﺎﺟﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺃﻭﺯﺍ‪ ‬ﺎ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪. 1 , 1.75 , 2 , 1.25 , 2.5 :‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺟﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﻟﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﻐﺬﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺟﺔ ﰲ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ؟‬

‫ﺍﳊـــــﻞ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻮﺯﻥ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪.‬‬

‫‪n=5‬‬
‫‪∑ x = 8.5‬‬

‫‪x2‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪66‬‬
‫‪3.0625‬‬

‫‪1.75‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪1.5625‬‬

‫‪1.25‬‬

‫‪6.25‬‬

‫‪2.5‬‬

‫‪15.875‬‬

‫‪8.5‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻮﺯﻥ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫) ‪2 − (∑ x‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫∑‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪n −1‬‬
‫‪= 0 . 534‬‬

‫‪15 . 875 − 14 . 45‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪(8 .5 ) 2‬‬
‫‪5‬‬

‫‪= 3 . 314‬‬

‫‪15 . 875 −‬‬

‫‪5‬‬
‫‪10 . 984615‬‬

‫= ‪sx‬‬
‫=‬
‫=‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺣﺴ ﺎ ﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺟﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﱪ ﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﺩﺟﺎﺟﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ‪ 0.5‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ‬

‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻫﻮ ‪y = x + 0.5 :‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ﻣـﺴﺎﻭﻳﺎ‬

‫ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻟﻼﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻯ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪s y = s x = 0.534‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﳓ ﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻮﺯﻥ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ 0.534‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺿﺮﺏ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﰲ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻀﺮﻭﺑﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻗﻴﻢ ‪x‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻫـﻲ ‪ ، y = a x :‬ﺣﻴـﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ a‬ﻣﻘـﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﺎﺑـﺖ ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪. s y = a sx‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﻫﻲ ‪ 4‬ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻣﻦ ‪ 50‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺮﺍﺩ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻟﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻣﻦ ‪ 100‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻌﲎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺿﺮﺏ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ﰲ ‪ ، 2‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳛﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‬
‫‪.‬‬

‫‪y = 2x‬‬
‫‪s y = 2s x = 2( 4) = 8‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻟﺔ ‪ 8‬ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬

‫• ﺭﺍﺑﻌﺎ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﳋﻄﻴﺔ ‪ ، y = a x + b :‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ‪y‬‬

‫ﻫـﻮ‬

‫‪67‬‬

‫ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ‪s y = a s x :‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﻟﻮ ﺃﺿﺎ ﻑ ﺍﳌﺼﺤﺢ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻃﺎﻟﺐ ‪ 5‬ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻌـﺪﻳﻞ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ ، 100‬ﺃﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻫﻲ ‪y = 2 x + 5 :‬‬
‫‪y = 2x + 5‬‬
‫‪s y = 2s x = 2( 4) = 8‬‬

‫ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺃﻧﻪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻳﺴﻬﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻪ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻋﻴﻮﺑﻪ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪68‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼـــﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ‬

‫ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﻮﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬

‫‪ 1/5‬ﻣﻘﺪﻣــﺔ‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﺤﲏ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲏ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻻ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ‬
‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﲟﻌﲎ ﺃﻥ ﻟﻪ ﻗﻤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺼﻒ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻮ ﺃﺳﻘﻄﻨﺎ ﻋﻤﻮﺩﺍ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻤﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﻘ ﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺸﻄﺮﻩ ﻧﺼﻔﲔ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﲔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ) ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ (‬
‫ﻭﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﻛﻠﻬﻢ ﻳﻘﻌﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴ ﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﲡﺬﺏ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺫﻳﻞ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﲔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺸﲑﺍ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟـﻴﻤﲔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛـﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﻟﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪‬ﺎ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺻﻐﲑﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈ‪‬ﺎ ﲡﺬﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺪﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲏ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟـﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼ ﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺒـﺴﻂ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺑﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ﻟﻮﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎ‪‬ﺎ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﻣﻌﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻃﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻘـﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻷﺧـﺮﻯ‬
‫ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﻓﻴﻤ ﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2/5‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ‬

‫‪Skewness‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻃﺮﻕ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 1/2/5‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ "ﺑﲑﺳﻮﻥ ‪ "Person‬ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ‬

‫ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻗﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍ ﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪( 1 -5) :‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ " ﺑﲑﺳﻮﻥ " ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪69‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪) α‬ﺃﻟﻔﺎ( ﻫﻮ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ " ﻟﺒﲑﺳﻮﻥ"‪ x ،‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‪ Med ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‪S ،‬‬
‫ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻹ ﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳊﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ) ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ = ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ( ﻛﺎﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ )‪ ، (α = 0‬ﻭﻳﺪﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻣـﻨﺤﲎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ) ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ < ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ( ﻛﺎﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ )‪ ، (α > 0‬ﻭﻳﺪﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻣـﻨﺤﲎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻠﺘﻮﻱ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﲔ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ) ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ > ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ( ﻛﺎﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ )‪ ، (α < 0‬ﻭﻳﺪﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻣـﻨﺤﲎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻠﺘﻮﻱ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(1 -5‬‬

‫ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬

‫‪ 2/2/5‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ "ﺍﳌﺌﲔ" ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ‪ 100‬ﺟﺰﺀ‪ ،‬ﻳﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﻴﻢ‬

‫ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ‪ 15‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ) ‪ ( v15‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺍﻟ ﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫‪ 15%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ‪ ، p‬ﻭﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ) ‪ ، (v p‬ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻔﻜـﺮﺓ ﺍﳌـﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺗﺮﺗﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫•‬
‫•‬

‫)‪x(1) < x( 2) < ... < x( n‬‬

‫‪ p ‬‬
‫ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 100 ‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺮﺗﺒﺔ ‪ R‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﻓﺈﻥ ) )‪.( v15 = x( R‬‬

‫‪. R = (n + 1)‬‬

‫• ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺮﺗﺒﺔ ‪ R‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v p‬ﲢﺴﺐ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪ ﻯ ﻗﺮﺏ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ‪ ، v p‬ﻭﺍﳌﺌﲔ ‪ ، v100 − p‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ‪، v50‬‬
‫ﻭﻛﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ‪ ، 20‬ﻭﺍﳌﺌﲔ ‪ ، 80‬ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘـﺎﱄ‬

‫‪70‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(2 -5‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v80‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v50‬ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v20‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v50‬ﻛـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻼ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v80‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v50‬ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v20‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v50‬ﻛـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v80‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v50‬ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v20‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ) ‪ (v50‬ﻛـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺳﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳊﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺌﻴﲏ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ v p < v50 < v100 − p :‬ﻭﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻢ ﺷﺎﺫﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﻧﻌﺮﻑ ﳍﺎ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﳏﺪﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ‪25‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺌﲔ ‪ ( v75 = Q ) 75‬ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪3‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ) ‪( 1 -5‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ‪ 8‬ﻃﻼﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﰲ ﻣﻘﺮﺭ ‪ 122‬ﺇﺣﺺ ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪.‬‬
‫‪58‬‬

‫‪74‬‬

‫‪91‬‬

‫‪80‬‬

‫‪78‬‬

‫‪52‬‬

‫‪85‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪ -1 :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ " ﺑﲑﺳﻮﻥ " ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊــﻞ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ " ﺑﲑﺳﻮﻥ " ‪.‬‬

‫‪66‬‬

‫) ‪= Q1‬‬

‫‪، ( v25‬‬

‫‪71‬‬
‫ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪ ( 2 -5‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪:‬‬

‫‪∑ x = 584 , ∑ x2 = 43890‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x2‬‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫‪x = ∑ = 584 = 73‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪8‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪x2 − (∑ x)2 n‬‬
‫∑ =‪s‬‬
‫‪= 43890 − (584) 8‬‬
‫‪8 −1‬‬
‫‪n −1‬‬

‫‪= 1258 = 179 .71428 = 13.406‬‬
‫‪7‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪(n+ 1)/2= (8+ 1)/2= 4.5 :‬‬
‫‪91‬‬
‫‪8‬‬

‫‪80 85‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪6.75‬‬

‫‪74‬‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫‪78‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪4.5‬‬

‫‪58 66‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪2.25‬‬

‫‪52‬‬
‫‪1‬‬

‫‪Med = 74 + 0.5(78 − 74) = 76‬‬
‫• ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ " ﺑﲑﺳﻮﻥ "‬

‫‪= −0.67‬‬

‫)‪3(73 − 76‬‬
‫‪13.406‬‬

‫= ) ‪s.c = 3( x − Med‬‬
‫‪S‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﻣﻠﺘﻮﻱ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻣ ﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪.( 5 -5‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑ ﻴ ﻊ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ‪(n+ 1)/4= (8+ 1)(1/4)= 2.25 :‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪4356‬‬

‫‪66‬‬

‫‪7225‬‬

‫‪85‬‬

‫‪2704‬‬

‫‪52‬‬

‫‪6084‬‬

‫‪78‬‬

‫‪6400‬‬

‫‪80‬‬

‫‪8281‬‬

‫‪91‬‬

‫‪5476‬‬

‫‪74‬‬

‫‪3364‬‬

‫‪58‬‬

‫‪43890‬‬

‫‪584‬‬

‫‪72‬‬

‫‪Q1 = 58 + (2.25 − 2)(66 − 58) = 60‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ‪(n+ 1)/(3/4)= (8+ 1) (3/4)= 6.75 :‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬

‫‪Q3 = 80 + (6.75 − 6)(85 − 80) = 83.75‬‬

‫• ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ) ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ (‬

‫‪Med (Q2 ) = 76‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫) ‪(Q3 − Q2 ) − (Q2 − Q1 ) (83 .75 − 76 ) − (76 − 60‬‬
‫= ‪αq‬‬
‫=‬
‫) ‪(83 .75 − 60‬‬
‫) ‪(Q3 − Q1‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﻣﻠﺘﻮﻱ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 3/5‬ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻃﺢ‬

‫‪− 8 .25‬‬
‫‪= − 0 .35‬‬
‫‪23 .75‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪Kurtosis‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌـﻨﺤﲎ ﻣﻨﺒـﺴﻂ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ‬

‫ﻣﺪﺑﺐ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌ ﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﺼﻒ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘﻞ ﰲ ﻃﺮﻓﻴ ﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺑﺒﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺼﻒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﻣﻔﺮﻃﺤﺎ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﺒﺴﻄﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﻣﺪﺑﺐ‬

‫ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﻣﻔﺮﻃﺢ‬

‫ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻗﻴ ﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻃﺢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻭﻡ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻃﺢ )‪ (K‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪73‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ ∑ ( x − x) 4 n‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻡ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺳـﻂ ‪s ،‬‬

‫ﻫـﻮ ﺍﻻﳓـﺮﺍﻑ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻃﺢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ ، 3‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻭﺻﻒ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣـﻦ‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻃﺢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﺑﺐ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ‪ k=3‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻌﺘﺪﻻ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ‪ k>3‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﺪﺑﺒﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ‪ k<3‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻨﺒﺴﻄ ﺎ ) ﻣﻔﺮﻃﺤﺎ ( ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ) ‪ ( 1 -5‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪584‬‬

‫‪58‬‬

‫‪74‬‬

‫‪80‬‬

‫‪91‬‬

‫‪x = 73‬‬
‫‪52‬‬

‫‪78‬‬

‫‪85‬‬

‫‪66‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪-15‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪18‬‬

‫‪7‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪-21‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪-7‬‬

‫‪1258‬‬

‫‪225‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪324‬‬

‫‪49‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪441‬‬

‫‪144‬‬

‫‪49‬‬

‫‪376246‬‬

‫‪50625‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪104976‬‬

‫‪2401‬‬

‫‪625‬‬

‫‪194481‬‬

‫‪20736‬‬

‫‪2401‬‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫)‪( x − x‬‬
‫‪( x − x) 2‬‬
‫‪( x − x) 4‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪Σ( x − x ) 2‬‬
‫‪1258‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 13.406‬‬
‫‪n −1‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪( x − x) 2 = (376246) = 47030.75‬‬
‫∑‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪8‬‬

‫=‪s‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻃﺢ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪47030.75‬‬
‫‪47030.75‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 1.456‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪(13.406‬‬
‫)‪(32299.58‬‬

‫=‪K‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻔﺮﻃﺢ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 4/5‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﻮﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 1/4/5‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ‬

‫‪Variation Coefficient‬‬

‫ﺃﺣﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻪ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﻛﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ‪،‬‬

‫‪74‬‬
‫ﻷﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻨﺘﻤﺘﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﲟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨ ﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ‬
‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ‪.‬‬

‫• ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‬
‫ﻭﳛﺴﺐ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫• ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ‬
‫ﻭﳛﺴﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ )‪( 2 -5‬‬
‫ﰎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻏﻨﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﰎ ﺍ ﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﻠﻴﻘﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻟﺘﺴﻤﲔ‬
‫ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﰎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﻠﻴﻘﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﺘﺴﻤﲔ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﰎ ﲨﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻦ ﺃﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰎ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‬

‫‪198‬‬

‫‪173‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪23‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ‬

‫=‪x‬‬
‫=‪s‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﳊـــﻞ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‪:‬‬

‫‪23 ×100 = 13.3%‬‬
‫‪v.c1 = s ×100 = 173‬‬
‫‪x‬‬

‫• ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪25 ×100 = 12.8%‬‬
‫‪v.c2 = s ×100 = 195‬‬
‫‪x‬‬

‫‪75‬‬
‫ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﺃﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍ‪ ‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﺃﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2/4/5‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻊ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻪ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴـﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻭﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻊ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺻﻐﲑ ﺩﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺻﻐﲑ‪،‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﻛﺒﲑ ﺩﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﻛﺒﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺩﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺷﺎﺫﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 3/4/5‬ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬

‫‪Standardized degree‬‬

‫ﺗﻘﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ‪‬ﺎ ﺗﻘﻞ ‪‬ﺎ ﻫﺬﻩ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ‪ ، x1 , x2 ,..., xn‬ﻫﻲ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺪﺩﻫﺎ ‪ ، n‬ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ‪x‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‪ s ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤـﺔ ‪ ، x‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣـﺰ ﳍـﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ، z‬ﲢﺴﺐ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻫﻮ‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 3 -5‬‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪ ( 2 -5‬ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﻏﻨﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﱪﻧـﺎﻣﺞ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻭﺟﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺯﻧﻪ ‪ 178‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﳌﺜﻞ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﻏﻨﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋـﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺟـﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺯﻧـﻪ ‪180‬‬

‫ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﺭﻥ ﺑﲔ ﻫﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﻤﻲ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊــﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟ ﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‬

‫‪198‬‬

‫‪173‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪23‬‬

‫=‪x‬‬
‫=‪s‬‬

‫‪76‬‬
‫‪180‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤ ﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪178‬‬

‫ﻟ ﻠﻤﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺗﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃ ﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗ ﻨﺘﻤﻲ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳـﺘﻢ ﺣـﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪. ( 10 -5‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺴﺤﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ) ‪ ( 178 Kg.‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪= 0 . 22‬‬

‫‪178 − 173‬‬
‫‪23‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪x− x‬‬
‫‪s‬‬

‫= ‪z‬‬

‫• ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺴﺤﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ) ‪ ( 180 Kg.‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪= − 0 . 75‬‬

‫‪180 − 198‬‬
‫‪25‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪x− x‬‬
‫‪s‬‬

‫= ‪z‬‬

‫• ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ‪ 178‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺑـ ‪ 0.22‬ﺍﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ‪ 180‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺑـ ‪ 0.75‬ﺍﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 4/4/5‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ، x1 , x2 ,..., xn :‬ﻭﻛـﺎﻥ ‪x‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ‪ s ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﳍﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ‪ 68%‬ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪. x ± s‬‬
‫• ‪ 95%‬ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪. x ± 2s‬‬
‫• ‪ 99%‬ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪. x ± 3s‬‬

‫ﻫـﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺳـﻂ ﺍﳊـﺴﺎﰊ ﳍـﺬﻩ‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(3 -5‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ 5/4/4‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺑﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ " ﺗﺸﻴﺒﺸﻴﻒ " ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ‪ :‬ﰲ ﺃﻯ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ‪ (1 − 1 k 2 ) %‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﻘﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ‪. k > 1 ، x ± ks‬‬

‫ﻭﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ‪ 75%‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﻘﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ‪ ، x ± 2s‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ‪ 89%‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﻘﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ‪. x ± 3s‬‬

‫‪77‬‬

‫‪ 6/4/5‬ﺷﻜﻞ "ﺑﻮﻛﺲ"‬

‫‪Box Plot‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ " ﺑﻮﻛﺲ " ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﻫﻮ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﻳﺸﺒﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻄﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺣﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺮﻯ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺮﺑ ﻴ ﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪Q 1‬‬

‫ﻭ‪‬ﺎﻳﺔ ﺣﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﲎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺮﺑ ﻴ ﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ ، Q 3‬ﻭﻳﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴ ﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ) ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ( ‪ Med‬ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻄﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺰﺃﻳﻦ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﳜﺮﺝ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎﻓﺘﻴﻪ ﺷﻌﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ ﺭﲰﺔ " ﺑﻮﻛﺲ " ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(4 -5‬‬

‫ﺭﲰﺔ ﺑﻮﻛﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ‬

‫ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺷﻜﻞ " ﺑﻮﻛﺲ " ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﰲ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻵﰐ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ Med‬ﻳﻘﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺼﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﲔ ‪Q 3 ,‬‬

‫‪ Q 1‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻼ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ Med‬ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ Q 1‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ Q 3‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ Med‬ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫‪ Q 3‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ Q 1‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺳﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺫﺍﻟﻚ ﻛﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(5 -5‬‬

‫ﻭﺻﻒ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺭﲰﺔ ﺑﻮﻛﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ‬

‫‪ -2‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭﻕ ‪ Box‬ﺿﻴﻖ ﺩﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﻭﺍﺳﻊ ﺩﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺣﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎ ﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(6 -5‬‬

‫ﻭﺻﻒ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺭﲰﺔ ﺑﻮﻛﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ‬

‫‪ -3‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺷﺎﺫﺓ ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻭﻗﻌﺖ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫ ‪،‬‬

‫‪78‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺷﺎﺫﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﳒﻮﻡ )*( ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ‬
‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﺮ ﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻧﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(7 -5‬‬
‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺭﲰﺔ ﺑﻮﻛﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ‬

‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺣﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ‬
‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪Q = (Q 3 -Q1 )/2‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍ ﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ )‪ ، (Low‬ﻭﻫﻮ‪Low = Q1 -3Q :‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ )‪ ، (Upp‬ﻭﻫﻮ‪UPP = Q 3+ 3Q :‬‬

‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻭﻗﻌﺖ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟ ﻘﻴﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟ ﺸﺎﺫﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـــﺎﻝ)‪(4-5‬‬

‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 12‬ﺃﺳﺮﺓ‪:‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪7‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪11‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪18‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﺷﻜﻞ " ﺑﻮﻛﺲ" ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻛﺘﺐ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﳍ ﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊــــﻞ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﺷﻜﻞ " ﺑﻮﻛﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ "‬
‫• ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫‪18‬‬

‫‪11‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪7‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫• ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻭﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻴﺎﺕ‪:‬‬
‫‪Max = 18‬‬

‫‪Min = 2‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ‪: Q 1‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ‪(n+ 1)(1/4)= (13/4)= 3.25‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ Q1‬ﻫﻲ‪Q1 = 5 + 0.25(6 − 5) = 5.25 :‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪: Med‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪79‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪(n+ 1)(1/2)= (13/2)= 6.5‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ Med‬ﻫﻲ ‪Med = 7 + 0.5(8 − 7) = 7.5 :‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ‪: Q 3‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻋﻲ ‪(n+1)(3/4)=(13)(3/4)=9.75‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ Q3‬ﻫﻲ‪Q3 = 10 + 0.75(10 − 10) = 10 :‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ‪Q = (10 − 5.25) / 2 = 2.375 :‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ‪:‬‬

‫‪Low = Q1 − 3Q = 5.25 − 3(2.375) = −1.875‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Upp = Q3 + 3Q = 10 + 3(2.375) = 17.125‬‬

‫• ﺭﺳﻢ ﺷﻜﻞ " ﺑﻮﻛ ﺲ"‬

‫‪ -2‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻗﺮﻳﺐ ﺟﺪﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺼﻒ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 60%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺫﺓ ‪ :‬ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺷﺎﺫﺓ ﻋﻠﻴﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪.18‬‬
‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺷﻜﻞ " ﺑﻮﻛﺲ " ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺘ ﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ‪.‬‬

‫‪80‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼــــﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‬

‫‪ 1/6‬ﻣﻘـــﺪﻣﺔ‬

‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼ ﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﰎ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﱰﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻃﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺷﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﲨﻌﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﻣﺜﻞ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻫﻮ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ ﺍﳋﺒﺰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻤﻖ ﻃﺮﺍﻭﺓ ﺍﳋﺒﺰ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﰲ ﻣﻘﺮﺭ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍ‪‬ﻢ ﰲ ﻣﻘﺮﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻦ ﳏﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻌﲔ ﰎ ﺗﺴﻤﻴﺪﻩ ‪‬ﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -6‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﺴﺘﺮﻭﻝ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -7‬ﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﳉﺴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿﻐﻂ ﺍﻟﺪﻡ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ )‪( y , x‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻭﰎ ﲨﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻋﻦ ﺃﺯﻭﺍﺝ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻫﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﰎ ﲤﺜﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ‬
‫ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻻ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(1 -6‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ‪y , x‬‬

‫‪ 2/6‬ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﳋﻄﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‬

‫‪Simple Correlation‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻫﻮ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻫﻮ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ‬

‫‪81‬‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﻮﻑ ﳚﺮﻯ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﱯ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1/2/6‬ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﳋﻄﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻫﻮ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﰲ‬

‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ) ρ‬ﺭﻭ ( ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ، r‬ﻭﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﺴﺤﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﻑ ‪‬ﺘﻢ ﲝﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ r‬ﻛﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬
‫ﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻠﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺮﻛﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺘﲔ‬
‫ﳘﺎ‪:‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪:‬ـ‬

‫ﻭﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺛﻼﺙ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ) ‪ (r < 0‬ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻳﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ) ‪ (r > 0‬ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﻳﻦ ﻳ ﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺻﻔﺮﺍ ) ‪ ( r = 0‬ﺩﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﻌﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ‪.‬‬

‫• ﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪:‬ـ‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳊﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻗﺮ‪‬ﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﻋﻦ )‪ ، (±1‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺗﻘﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ) ‪ ، ( -1 < r < 1‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺻﻨﻒ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﲔ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲤﺜﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(2 -6‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻗﻮﺓ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬

‫‪ 2/2/6‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﳋﻄﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ " ﻟﺒﲑﺳﻮﻥ"‬
‫ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﲨﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻛﻤﻴﲔ )‪x‬‬

‫‪Pearson‬‬

‫‪ ، ( y ,‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬

‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ "ﺑﲑﺳﻮﻥ " ‪ ، Pearson‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ :‬ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺣﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺬﻛﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫ ﻜﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫‪82‬‬
‫ﻭﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺻﻴﻐﺔ " ﺑﲑﺳﻮﻥ " ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪ : S xy = ∑ ( x − x)( y − y) (n − 1‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺎﻳﺮ ﺑﲔ )‪x‬‬
‫)‪(n − 1‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫)‪(n − 1‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫)‪∑ ( x − x‬‬
‫)‪∑ ( y − y‬‬

‫‪,‬‬

‫‪،(y‬‬

‫= ‪ : S x‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻘﻴﻢ )‪، (x‬‬
‫= ‪ : S y‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻘﻴﻢ )‪. ( y‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ )‪(1-6‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﱰﺭﻋﺔ ﺑ ﺎﻷﻋﻼﻑ ﺍﳋﻀﺮﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﻃﻦ‪،‬‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ 1995‬ﺣﱴ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪. 2002‬‬
‫‪2002‬‬

‫‪2001‬‬

‫‪2000‬‬

‫‪1999‬‬

‫‪1998‬‬

‫‪1997‬‬

‫‪1996‬‬

‫‪1995‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫‪217‬‬

‫‪240‬‬

‫‪214‬‬

‫‪233‬‬

‫‪289‬‬

‫‪297‬‬

‫‪313‬‬

‫‪305‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ‬

‫‪747‬‬

‫‪719‬‬

‫‪699‬‬

‫‪635‬‬

‫‪607‬‬

‫‪662‬‬

‫‪603‬‬

‫‪592‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺪﻟﻮﻟﻪ ؟‬

‫ﺍﳊــﻞ‬

‫ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ )‪ (x‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﱰﺭﻋﺔ ‪ ( y) ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬

‫ﺑﲔ )‪x‬‬
‫•‬

‫‪,‬‬

‫‪ ( y‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ ، ( 2 -6‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ )‪, x‬‬

‫‪.(y‬‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫‪y‬‬
‫‪x = ∑ = 2108 = 263.5 , y = ∑ = 5264 = 658‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪8‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍ‪ ‬ﺎﻣﻴﻊ‬

‫‪83‬‬

‫)‪y − y ( y − y) 2 ( x − x)( y − y‬‬

‫‪x − x ( x − x) 2‬‬

‫‪-66‬‬
‫‪-55‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪-51‬‬
‫‪-23‬‬
‫‪41‬‬
‫‪61‬‬
‫‪89‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪41.5‬‬
‫‪49.5‬‬
‫‪33.5‬‬
‫‪25.5‬‬
‫‪-30.5‬‬
‫‪-49.5‬‬
‫‪-23.5‬‬
‫‪-46.5‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪-2739‬‬
‫‪-2722.5‬‬
‫‪134‬‬
‫‪-1300.5‬‬
‫‪701.5‬‬
‫‪-2029.5‬‬
‫‪-1433.5‬‬
‫‪-4138.5‬‬
‫‪-13528‬‬

‫‪,‬‬

‫‪4356‬‬
‫‪3025‬‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫‪2601‬‬
‫‪529‬‬
‫‪1681‬‬
‫‪3721‬‬
‫‪7921‬‬
‫‪23850‬‬

‫‪1722.25‬‬
‫‪2450.25‬‬
‫‪1122.25‬‬
‫‪650.25‬‬
‫‪930.25‬‬
‫‪2450.25‬‬
‫‪552.25‬‬
‫‪2162.25‬‬
‫‪12040‬‬

‫‪y‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪592‬‬
‫‪603‬‬
‫‪662‬‬
‫‪607‬‬
‫‪635‬‬
‫‪699‬‬
‫‪719‬‬
‫‪747‬‬
‫‪5264‬‬

‫‪305‬‬
‫‪313‬‬
‫‪297‬‬
‫‪289‬‬
‫‪233‬‬
‫‪214‬‬
‫‪240‬‬
‫‪217‬‬
‫‪2108‬‬

‫‪∑ ( x − x) 2 = 12040 , ∑ ( y − y) 2 = 23850‬‬
‫‪∑ ( x − x)( y − y) = −13528‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪− 13528‬‬
‫)‪∑ ( x − x)( y − y‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪12040 23850‬‬
‫‪∑ ( x − x) 2 ∑ ( y − y) 2‬‬

‫‪− 13528‬‬
‫‪− 13528‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= −0.798‬‬
‫‪(109.727)(154.434) 16945.619‬‬

‫=‪r‬‬
‫=‬

‫• ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻗﻮﻱ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﱰﺭﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻮﻡ‪.‬‬

‫ﺗﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺻﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ ( 2 -6‬ﰲ ﻏﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻻﺯﻡ‬
‫ﺍ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳊ ﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺎ ﻛﺴﺮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ )‪ ( 2 -6‬ﺇﱃ ﺻﻴﻐﺔ ﺃﺳﻬﻞ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻭﺳﻄﻬﺎ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻣﻴﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻣﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‬

‫‪∑ x = 2108 , ∑ y = 5264‬‬
‫‪∑ xy = 1373536‬‬

‫‪y2‬‬
‫‪350464‬‬
‫‪363609‬‬
‫‪438244‬‬

‫‪x2‬‬
‫‪93025‬‬
‫‪97969‬‬
‫‪88209‬‬

‫‪xy‬‬
‫‪180560‬‬
‫‪188739‬‬
‫‪196614‬‬

‫‪y‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪592‬‬
‫‪603‬‬
‫‪662‬‬

‫‪305‬‬
‫‪313‬‬
‫‪297‬‬

‫‪84‬‬
‫‪368449‬‬
‫‪403225‬‬
‫‪488601‬‬
‫‪516961‬‬
‫‪558009‬‬
‫‪3487562‬‬

‫‪∑ x2 = 567498‬‬
‫‪∑ y2 = 3487562‬‬

‫‪83521‬‬
‫‪54289‬‬
‫‪45796‬‬
‫‪57600‬‬
‫‪47089‬‬
‫‪567498‬‬

‫‪175423‬‬
‫‪147955‬‬
‫‪149586‬‬
‫‪172560‬‬
‫‪162099‬‬
‫‪1373536‬‬

‫‪607‬‬
‫‪635‬‬
‫‪699‬‬
‫‪719‬‬
‫‪747‬‬
‫‪5264‬‬

‫‪289‬‬
‫‪233‬‬
‫‪214‬‬
‫‪240‬‬
‫‪217‬‬
‫‪2108‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻣﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ ( 3 -6‬ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬
‫ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪∑x ∑y‬‬
‫‪n‬‬

‫‪∑ xy −‬‬

‫‪(∑ x) 2 ‬‬
‫‪(∑ y) 2 ‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪y −‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫∑ ‪n ‬‬
‫‪n ‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫)‪(2108)(5264‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪ x2‬‬
‫∑ ‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪1373536 −‬‬

‫‪2 ‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫)‪ 567498 − ( 2108)  3487562 − (5264‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪− 13528‬‬
‫‪− 13528‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= −0.798‬‬
‫‪(12040)(23850) 16945.619‬‬

‫=‪r‬‬

‫=‬

‫=‬

‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 3/2/6‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺮﺗﺐ )ﺍﺳﺒﲑﻣﺎﻥ(‬

‫‪Spearman‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﲢﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻭﺻﻔﻴﲔ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺒﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺎﺩﺗﲔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ "ﺑﲑﺳﻮﻥ" ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺗﺐ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻛﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ " ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﺳﺒﲑﻣﺎﻥ "‬
‫‪ ، Spearman‬ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺭﺗﺐ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ ، x‬ﻭﺭﺗﺐ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪، y‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪d‬‬
‫ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪. d = Rx − Ry :‬‬
‫ﻣﺜـــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 2 -6‬‬

‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ‪ 10‬ﻃﻼﺏ ﰲ ﻣﺎﺩﰐ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ‪:‬‬

‫‪85‬‬
‫ﺏ‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺃ‬

‫ﺟـ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫‪+‬‬
‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺟـ‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺃ‬

‫ﺩ‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺟـ‬

‫ﺩ‬

‫ﺟـ‬

‫ﺟـ‬

‫ﺩ‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺃ‬
‫ﺃ‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻘﺮﺭﻳﻦ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺪﻟﻮﻟﻪ ؟‬

‫ﺍﳊـــﻞ‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ‪ x‬ﻫﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‪y ،‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒـﺎﻁ‬

‫ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ، ( 4 -6‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬

‫•‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻉ‪∑ d :‬‬

‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪∑ d 2 = 44.5‬‬
‫• ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻫﻮ‪:‬‬

‫‪d2‬‬

‫‪d‬‬

‫ﺭﺗﺐ ‪y‬‬

‫ﺭﺗﺐ ‪x‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‬‫‪2.5‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2.5‬‬
‫‪-2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪-4‬‬
‫‪-1‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫ﺃ‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪7.5‬‬

‫ﺩ‬

‫ﺟـ‬

‫‪8‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪5‬‬

‫‪10‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪7.5‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫ﺟـ‬

‫ﺩ‬

‫ﺟـ‬

‫ﺩ‬

‫ﺃ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺟـ‬

‫‪6.25‬‬

‫‪6∑ d 2‬‬

‫)‪n(n 2 −1‬‬

‫‪r = 1−‬‬

‫)‪6(44.5‬‬
‫‪267‬‬
‫‪= 1−‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪990‬‬
‫)‪10(10 − 1‬‬
‫‪= 1 − 0.2697 = 0.7303‬‬
‫‪= 1−‬‬

‫‪4‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪6.25‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪44.5‬‬

‫‪y‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺃ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺃ‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫‪+‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪+‬‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺟـ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫‪+‬‬
‫‪+‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﻣﺪﻟﻮﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ‪:‬‬

‫ﲟﺎ ﺃﻥ ‪r = 0.703‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺪﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻃﺮﺩﻱ ﻗﻮﻱ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍ ﻟﻄﺎﻟـﺐ ﰲ‬

‫ﻣﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺔ ‪ -:‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺻﻴﻐﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ " ﺍﺳﺒﲑﻣﺎﻥ " ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻛﻤـﻴﲔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺭﺗﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺘﺮﻙ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﲝﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺮﺗـﺐ‬
‫ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪ ( 1 -5‬ﺍﻟ ﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻔﺴﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ‪ ) :‬ﻣﻌﺎﻭﻧﺔ ‪= 148 :‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪∑d‬‬

‫‪86‬‬
‫(‬

‫‪ 3/6‬ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳋﻄﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‬

‫‪Simple Regression‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻣـﺘﻐﲑ‬

‫ﻛﻤﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻛﻤﻲ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺩﺭ ﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱎ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱪﻭﺗﲔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﳍﺎ ﺍﻷﺑﻘﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠ ﻮﻛﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1/3/6‬ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ‬
‫ﰲ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ ﻭﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﳌﺘﻐﲑ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﺒﺄ ﻣﻨﻪ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻭﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﺒﺄ ﺑﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻋﺮﺽ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻻﳓﺪ ﺍﺭ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺧﻄﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻛﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻞ‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ : y‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ) ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ(‬
‫‪ : x‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻞ ) ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ (‬
‫‪ : β 0‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﳌﻘﻄﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﺳﻲ ‪ ، y‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻧﻌﺪﺍﻡ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻞ ‪ ، x‬ﺃ ﻱ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ‪x = 0‬‬

‫ﺑﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪.‬‬

‫‪ : β1‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﺍﳋﻂ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ )‪ ، (β 0 + β1 x‬ﻭﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ‪ y‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻐﲑﺕ ‪x‬‬
‫‪ : e‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﳋﻄﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴـﺔ ‪ ، y‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ ﺍﳌﻘـﺪﺭﺓ‬
‫‪ˆ = β 0 + β1 x‬‬
‫‪ ، y‬ﺃ ﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪ ، e = y − (β 0 + β1 x) :‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳋﻄﺄ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻟﻨﻘﻂ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬

‫‪87‬‬

‫‪ 2/3/6‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‬
‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ) ‪ ( β1 , β 0‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ) ‪ ( 5 -6‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺑﻌـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟــﺼﻐﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫــﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘــﺪﻳﺮ ﻫــﻮ ﺍﻟــﺬﻱ ﳚﻌــﻞ ﳎﻤــﻮﻉ ﻣﺮﺑﻌــﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﻄــ ﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌــﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫))‪∑ e = ∑ ( y − (β 0 + β1 x‬‬

‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ x‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪y ، x‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻘ ﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﻮ‪ ، yˆ = βˆ0 + βˆ1 x :‬ﻭﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ " ﺗﻘـﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟـﺔ ﺍﳓـﺪﺍﺭ ‪y‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ‪. x‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ، y‬ﻭ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ) ‪( 3 -6‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱪﻭﺗﲔ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﳉﺮﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺿﻴﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﰲ ﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻜ ﺠﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺮﺿﻴﻌﺔ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪. 10‬‬
‫‪70‬‬
‫‪20‬‬

‫‪59‬‬
‫‪16‬‬

‫‪50‬‬
‫‪15‬‬

‫‪46‬‬
‫‪19‬‬

‫‪25‬‬
‫‪13‬‬

‫‪20‬‬
‫‪13‬‬

‫‪15‬‬
‫‪12‬‬

‫‪14‬‬
‫‪12‬‬

‫‪11‬‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫‪10‬‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱪﻭﺗﲔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻧﻘﻂ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺗﻚ ﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ؟‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱪﻭﺗﲔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻓﺴ ﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻞ ‪ 50‬ﺟﺮﺍﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﱪﻭﺗﲔ ؟ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳋﻄﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ؟‬
‫‪ -5‬ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻂ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ) ‪. ( 1‬‬

‫ﺍﳊــﻞ‬

‫‪88‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﻧﻘﻂ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ‪y‬‬

‫ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱪﻭﺗﲔ ‪x‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱪﻭﺗﲔ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻃﺮﺩﻱ ) ﺇﳚﺎﰊ ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ‪ x‬ﻫﻲ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱪﻭﺗﲔ‪y ،‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﲔ ﰲ ) ‪-6‬‬

‫‪ ، ( 6‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻣﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻣﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‬

‫‪x2‬‬

‫‪xy‬‬

‫‪∑ x = 320‬‬
‫‪∑ y = 140‬‬
‫‪∑ xy = 5111‬‬
‫‪∑ x2 = 14664‬‬

‫‪100‬‬
‫‪121‬‬
‫‪196‬‬
‫‪225‬‬
‫‪400‬‬
‫‪625‬‬
‫‪2116‬‬
‫‪2500‬‬
‫‪3481‬‬
‫‪4900‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫‪x = ∑ = 320 = 32‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪y = ∑ = 140 = 14‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱪﻭﺗﲔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ‬

‫‪y‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪100‬‬
‫‪110‬‬
‫‪168‬‬
‫‪180‬‬
‫‪260‬‬
‫‪325‬‬
‫‪874‬‬
‫‪750‬‬
‫‪944‬‬
‫‪1400‬‬

‫‪10‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪19‬‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫‪20‬‬

‫‪10‬‬
‫‪11‬‬
‫‪14‬‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫‪25‬‬
‫‪46‬‬
‫‪50‬‬
‫‪59‬‬
‫‪70‬‬

‫‪5111 14664‬‬

‫‪140‬‬

‫‪320‬‬

‫• ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﰲ ) ‪ ( 6 -6‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ‪ βˆ1‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪n xy − x y (10)(5111) − (320)(140‬‬
‫= ‪= ∑ 2 ∑ ∑2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫)‪n∑ x − (∑ x‬‬
‫)‪(10)(14664) − (320‬‬
‫‪6310‬‬
‫‪= 0.1426‬‬
‫‪44240‬‬

‫=‬

‫• ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﰲ ) ‪ ( 6 -6‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ‪ βˆ0‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪= y − βˆ1 x = 14 − (0.1426)(32) = 9.4368‬‬
‫• ﺇ ﺫﺍ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪βˆ0‬‬

‫‪βˆ1‬‬

‫‪89‬‬

‫‪yˆ = 9.44 + 0.143x‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ‪ : βˆ0 = 9.44‬ﻳﺪﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﱪﻭﺗﲔ ﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺬﻳـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ‪ 9.44‬ﻛﺠﻢ ‪.‬‬

‫• ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ‪ : βˆ1 = 0.143‬ﻳﺪﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱪﻭ ﺗﲔ ﺟﺮﺍﻡ ﻭﺍﺣـﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﺣﺪﺙ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻞ ﲟﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ 0.143‬ﻛﺠﻢ‪ ،‬ﺃﻯ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭﻫﺎ ‪ 143‬ﺟﺮﺍﻡ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -4‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪x = 50‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪yˆ = 9.44 + 0.143(50) = 16.59‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﻭﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳋﻄﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪eˆx=50 = yx=50 − yˆ x=50 = 15 − 16.59 = −1.59‬‬

‫‪ -5‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻂ ﺍﻻﻧ ﺘﺸﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻢ ﻧﻘﻄﺘﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳋﻂ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ‪.‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪10.87‬‬

‫‪50‬‬
‫‪16.59‬‬

‫‪x‬‬
‫ˆ‪y‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪y‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪90‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼــﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎ‪‬ﺎ‬
‫‪Probabilities and its Applications‬‬

‫‪ 1/7‬ﻣﻘــﺪﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻛﻠﻤﺔ " ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ " ﻫﻲ ﻛﻠﻤﺔ ﻳﻨﻄﻖ ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻓﺒﻌﺾ ﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺭﺻﺎﺩ ﺍﳉﻮﻳﺔ ﻳﻘﻮﻟﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺳﻘﻮﻁ ﺃﻣﻄﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺧ ﱪﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺭﺻﺔ ﻳﻘﻮﻟﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﳒﺎﺡ‬
‫ﻃﺎﻟﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺇﺻﺎﺑﺔ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻛﻬﺔ ﺑﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻜﺘﺮﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﺜﺮ ﻧﻄﻖ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ‪‬ﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺭﲟﺎ ﳚﻬﻠﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻫﺎ ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺎﺫﺍ ﺗﻌﲏ ﻛﻠﻤﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ؟‬
‫ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ‪‬ﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻜ ﻠﻤﺔ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺃﻭ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻛﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻲ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻓﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺣﺘ ﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﻌﺮﺽ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2/7‬ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫• ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‬

‫‪Randomized Experiment‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻢ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺳﺘﻈﻬﺮ ﺃﻭ ﲢﺪﺙ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﳍﺎ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺘﺎﻥ ﳘﺎ ‪ " :‬ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ " ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﳍﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ، H‬ﺃﻭ " ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺑﺔ " ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﳍﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ، T‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫} ‪ ، {H , T‬ﻭﻗﺒﻞ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺘﲔ ﺳﻮﻑ‬

‫ﺗ ﻈﻬﺮ ‪.‬‬

‫• ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬

‫‪Sample Space‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﳍﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ، S‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻟﻔﺮﺍﻍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ) ‪ ، n(S‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺤﻴﺰﺓ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪، S:{H , T } :‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫﻲ ‪. n( S ) = 2 :‬‬

‫‪91‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺤﻴﺰﺓ ﻣﺮﺗﲔ ) ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻗﻄﻌﺘﲔ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ( ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺷﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪n( S) = 4‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﺭﻣﻲ ﺯﻫﺮﺓ ﻧﺮﺩ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺤﻴﺰﺓ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻓﺮﺍ ﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻮ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﺟﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ‪ ، S:{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} :‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪. n( S ) = 6 :‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺤﻴﺰﺓ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺕ ﺣﱴ ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺎﻭﻻﺕ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻳﻘﺎﻓﻬﺎ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻮ ﺭﺓ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫}‪ ، S:{H, TH, TTH, TTTH,…….‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ‪. n(S ) = ∞ :‬‬

‫‪ -5‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻛﺮﺗﲔ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺇﺭﺟﺎﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻴﺲ ﺑﻪ ﲬﺲ ﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﲪﺮﺍﺀ )‪ ، (red‬ﺛﻼﺙ ﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﺯﺭﻗﺎﺀ‬
‫)‪ ، (blue‬ﻭﻛﺮﺗﺎﻥ ﺧﻀﺮﺍﺀ )‪ ، (green‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪ ) ، n( S ) = (10 × 9) = 90 :‬ﻷ‪‬ﺎ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺰﻧﺔ (‪.‬‬

‫‪ -6‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺮﺯ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺑﻪ ﲬﺲ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣـﺪﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺒﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪ .........‬ﻭﺍﺟﺐ ﻣﱰﱄ‬

‫• ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ‬

‫‪Event‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻟﻔﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺩﺙ ﲝﺮﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳍﺠﺎﺋﻴـﺔ‬
‫]‪ ، […,C ,B ,A‬ﻭﻳ ﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﺇﱄ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪-1‬‬

‫ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ‪ : Simple Event‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘـﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻟﻔﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪92‬‬
‫‪-2‬‬

‫ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﻣﺮﻛﺐ ‪ : Component Event‬ﻭﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺘﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻔﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺐ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻤﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺣﻮﺍﺩﺙ ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺩﺙ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ )‪ ..., n( B) , n( A‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺤﻴﺰﺓ ﻣﺮﺗﲔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺮﻑ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ A‬ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟـﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣـﺮﺗﲔ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ B‬ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨـﺔ ﰲ ﻫـﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟـﺔ ﻫـﻲ‬
‫}‪ ، S:{HH, HT, TH, TT‬ﻭﺑ ﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺩﺙ ‪ A‬ﻓﻬﻮ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‬
‫ﻫﻲ }‪ ، A:{HH‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪ ، n(A)=1‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ B‬ﻓﻬﻮ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﻣﺮﻛﺐ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫﻲ‬
‫}‪ ، B:{HT, TH, HH‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪ ، n(B)=3‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻤﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺑﺴﻴﻄﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫• ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ) ∪ (‬

‫‪Union‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﱪ ﺍﲢ ﺎﺩ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺎﻥ ‪ B , A‬ﻋﻦ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺃﺣﺪﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﺃﻭ‬

‫(‬

‫)‬

‫ﻛﻼﳘﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎ )‪ ( A∪ B‬ﺃﻭ ‪ ، A or B‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑـﺸﻜﻞ " ﻓـﻦ "‬
‫‪ Ven. Diagram‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ) ‪( 1 -7‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﺯﻫﺮﺓ ﻧﺮﺩ ﻣﺘﺰﻧﺔ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺮﻑ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ A‬ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻇﻬـﻮﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺟﻪ ﻳﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ ، 3‬ﻭﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ B‬ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻓﺮﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫}‪ ، B:{1,3,5}, A:{3,6}, S:{1,2,3,4,5,6‬ﻭﻳﻜـﻮﻥ ﺍﲢـﺎﺩ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛـﺎﻥ ‪ B , A‬ﻫـﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫}‪ ، (A∪ B): {1,3,5,6‬ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ‪ Ven‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ ) ∩ (‬

‫}‪(A∪ B): {1,3,5,6‬‬
‫‪Intersection‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﱪ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺎﻥ ‪ B , A‬ﻋﻦ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺛﻨﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻛ ﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﺑﲔ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﲔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎ‬
‫" ﻓﻦ " ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪( A∩ B‬‬

‫ﺃﻭ )‪(A and B‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻈ ﻬﺮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺷـﻜﻞ‬

‫‪93‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ) ‪( 2 -7‬‬

‫ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ‬

‫• ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫}‪(A∩ B): {3‬‬

‫‪.‬‬

‫‪Mutually Exclusive evens‬‬

‫ﻳﻘﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺎﻥ ‪ B, A‬ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺃﺣﺪﻫﺎ ﻳﻨﻔﻲ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﺪﺙ ﺍﻵﺧـﺮ ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌـﲎ‬
‫ﺍﺳ ﺘﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﻗﻮﻋﻬﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳ ﻜﻮﻥ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺎﻥ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟ ﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﳋ ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﳍﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ φ‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪ ، A∩ B = φ‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﲤﺜﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ " ﻓﻦ " ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ) ‪( 3 -7‬‬

‫ﻻ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ‪( A∩ B) = φ‬‬

‫• ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﺍﳌﻜﻤﻞ‬

‫‪Compliment Event‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﺎ ﺩﺙ ﺍﳌﻜﻤﻞ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺩﺙ ‪ A‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﻔﻲ ﻭﻗﻮﻋﻪ ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻛـﻞ‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺩﺙ ‪ ، A‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺩﺙ ﺍﳌﻜﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ، A‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪  A ∪ A  = S ,  A ∩ A  = φ‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ) ‪( 4 -7‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 1 -7‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫ﺃﻟﻘﻴﺖ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺤﻴﺰﺓ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺮﻓﺖ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ A‬ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺮﺗﲔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ B‬ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ C‬ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬

94
: ‫ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﲢﺎﺩ‬-1

A∪B , A∪C , B∪C , A∪B∪C
: ‫ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍ ﺙ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺎﺕ‬-2

A∩B , A∩C , B∩C , A∩B∩C
B ‫ ﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ‬-3

‫ﺍﳊـــﻞ‬
: ‫• ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻫ ﻮ‬

n( S ) = 8
: ‫• ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻫﻲ‬
A: {HHT,HTH,THH}, B: {HTT,THT,TTH}, C: {HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT}
n( A) = 3
n( B) = 3
n( C ) = 4

: ‫ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﲢﺎﺩ‬-1

( A∪ B) : {HHT, HTH , THH , HTT, THT, TTH } , n( A ∪ B) = 6
( A∪ C ) : {HHT, HTH , THH , HHH, HTT} , n( A ∪ C ) = 5
(B ∪ C ) : {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THT, TTH} , n( B ∪ C ) = 6
( A∪ B ∪ C ) : {HHH, HHT, HTH , HTT, THT, TTH , THH}, n( A ∪ B ∪ C ) = 7
: ‫ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ‬-2

( A ∩ B) : φ , n( A ∩ B) = 0
( A∩ C ) : {HHT , HTH } , n( A ∩ C ) = 2
(B ∩ C ) : {HTT} , n( B ∩ C ) = 1
( A ∩ B ∩ C ) : φ , n( A ∩ B ∩ C ) = 0

(B ) : {HHH , HHT , HTH , THH , TTT} n( B ) = 5

: B ‫ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ‬-3

,

‫ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬3/7

‫‪95‬‬
‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺲ ﻭﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﱯ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﺭﻣﺰﻧﺎ‬
‫ﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ A‬ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ )‪ ، P (A‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻃﺮ ﻳ ﻘ ﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺗﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻭﻓﻘـﺎ ﻟﻨـﻮﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﳘﺎ ﻧﻮﻋﺎﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﱯ‪ : Empirical probability‬ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﻭﳛـﺴﺐ‬

‫ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ n :‬ﻫﻮ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ) ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ( ‪ : f(A) ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ‬
‫‪،A‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺤﻴﺰﺓ ‪ 500‬ﻣﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﰎ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﻇﻬـﻮﺭ ﻛـﻞ ﻭﺟـﻪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﳋﺼﺖ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫‪SUM‬‬

‫‪T‬‬

‫‪H‬‬

‫‪500‬‬

‫‪240‬‬

‫‪260‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺟﻪ )‪(F a ce‬‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﺟﻪ‬

‫ﻭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ‪ ، H‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗـﻢ ) ‪ ، ( 1 -7‬ﻭﺍﻟـﱵ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪f ( H ) 260‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 0.52‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪500‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﺍ ﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ‬

‫= ) ‪P (H‬‬

‫‪ : Theoretical Probability‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺲ‬

‫ﻭﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋـﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘـﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ n (S) :‬ﻫﻮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪ n (A) ،‬ﻫﻮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘـﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨـﺔ ﻟﻮﻗـﻮﻉ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ ، A‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺤﻴﺰﺓ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪S: {H, T} :‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪ ، n (S) =(2) 1 = 2 :‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ A‬ﻫﻮ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ‪،‬‬
‫ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ }‪ ، A: {H‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺩﺙ‪ A‬ﻫﻲ ‪ ، n( A) = 1 :‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ‬

‫‪96‬‬
‫ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ A‬ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪n ( A) 1‬‬
‫‪= = 0 .5‬‬
‫‪n(S ) 2‬‬
‫•‬

‫= )‪P ( A‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﱯ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻋﻨـﺪ ﺯﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﻋـﺪﺩ‬

‫ﺍﶈﺎﻭﻻﺕ ‪ n‬ﻳﻘﺘﺮﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﱯ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﺭﻣﻲ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻟﻠﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﻘﺘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ )‪ ، (0.5‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ ﻟﻈﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺭﻣﻲ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﺘﺸﺎ‪‬ﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺟﺮﻳﺖ ﲡﺮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻈﻬﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﳍﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻫﻮ ) ) ‪ ، (1 n( S‬ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﺸﺎ‪‬ﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﺯﻫﺮﺓ ﻧﺮﺩ ﻣﺘﺰﻧﺔ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﳒـﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻓـﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨـﺔ ﻫـﻮ‬

‫}‪ ، S:{1,2,3,4,5,6‬ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻫﻮ )‪ ، (1/6‬ﻭﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎ ﺀ ﺍﻟﺰﻫﺮﺓ ﻣﺮﺗﲔ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺪﺩ‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪ n (S) =6 2 =36 :‬ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪(1,6‬‬
‫)‪(2,6‬‬
‫)‪(3,6‬‬
‫)‪(4,6‬‬
‫)‪(5,6‬‬
‫)‪(6,6‬‬

‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪(1,5‬‬
‫)‪(2,5‬‬
‫)‪(3,5‬‬
‫)‪(4,5‬‬
‫)‪(5,5‬‬
‫)‪(6,5‬‬

‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪(1,4‬‬
‫)‪(2,4‬‬
‫)‪(3,4‬‬
‫)‪(4,4‬‬
‫)‪(5,4‬‬
‫)‪(6,4‬‬

‫‪3‬‬
‫)‪(1,3‬‬
‫)‪(2,3‬‬
‫)‪(3,3‬‬
‫)‪(4,3‬‬
‫)‪(5,3‬‬
‫)‪(6,3‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫)‪(1,2‬‬
‫)‪(2,2‬‬
‫)‪(3,2‬‬
‫)‪(4,2‬‬
‫)‪(5,2‬‬
‫)‪(6,2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫)‪(1,1‬‬
‫)‪(2,1‬‬
‫)‪(3,1‬‬
‫)‪(4,1‬‬
‫)‪(5,1‬‬
‫)‪(6,1‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪6‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻫﻮ )‪. (1/36‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺙ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻻﺕ‬

‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻛﻞ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻛﺮﺗﲔ‬
‫ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﺭﺟﺎﻉ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻴﺲ ﺑﻪ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﲪﺮﺍﺀ )‪ ، (R‬ﻭﻛﺮﺗﺎﻥ ﲢﻤـﻼﻥ ﺍﻟﻠـﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺑﻴﺾ )‪ ، (W‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻧﻪ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻛﺮﺓ ﲪﺮﺍﺀ ﻫﻮ ‪ ، 3/5‬ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ‬
‫ﻛﺮﺓ ﺑﻴﻀﺎﺀ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻛﺮﺗﲔ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ ، 2/5‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺳﺤﺐ‬

‫‪97‬‬

‫ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ )‪ ، (1 4‬ﻓﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺰﻧﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 4/7‬ﺑﻌﺾ ﻗﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬

‫‪Probability Laws‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻ ﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛ ﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺎﻥ ‪ ، B , A‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ ، P(A∪B‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﻪ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪n( A∪ B‬‬
‫) ‪n( S‬‬
‫)‪n( A) + n( B) − n( A∩ B‬‬
‫=‬
‫) ‪n( S‬‬
‫)‪n( A) n( B) n( A∩ B‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫) ‪n( S ) n ( S‬‬
‫) ‪n( S‬‬
‫)‪= P ( A) + P ( B) − P ( A∩ B‬‬

‫= )‪P ( A∪ B‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺛﻼﺙ ﺃﺣﺪﺍﺙ ‪ ، C , B , A‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ) ‪ ، P ( A ∪ B ∪ C‬ﻭﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺎﺕ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺃﺻﻔﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪98‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 2 -7‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﺯﻫﺮﺓ ﻧﺮﺩ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺤﻴﺰﺓ ﻣﺮﺗﲔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻭﺟﺪ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﻣﺘﺸﺎ‪‬ﲔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻧﻘﺎﻃﻬﻤﺎ ‪. 10‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﻣﺘﺸﺎ‪‬ﲔ ﺃﻭ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻧﻘﺎﻃﻬﻤﺎ ‪. 10‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻧﻘﺎﻃﻬﻤﺎ ‪ 7‬ﺃﻭ ‪. 10‬‬

‫ﺍﳊــــﻞ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪(1,6‬‬
‫)‪(2,6‬‬
‫)‪(3,6‬‬
‫)‪(4,6‬‬
‫)‪(5,6‬‬
‫)‪(6,6‬‬

‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪(1,5‬‬
‫)‪(2,5‬‬
‫)‪(3,5‬‬
‫)‪(4,5‬‬
‫)‪(5,5‬‬
‫)‪(6,5‬‬

‫‪S‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪(1,3) (1,4‬‬
‫)‪(2,3) (2,4‬‬
‫)‪(3,3) (3,4‬‬
‫)‪(4,3) (4,4‬‬
‫)‪(5,3) (5,4‬‬
‫)‪(6,3) (6,4‬‬
‫‪n (S) = 36‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫)‪(1,2‬‬
‫)‪(2,2‬‬
‫)‪(3,2‬‬
‫)‪(4,2‬‬
‫)‪(5,2‬‬
‫)‪(6,2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫)‪(1,1‬‬
‫)‪(2,1‬‬
‫)‪(3,1‬‬
‫)‪(4,1‬‬
‫)‪(5,1‬‬
‫)‪(6,1‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪6‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ A‬ﻫﻮ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﻣﺘﺸﺎ‪‬ﲔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪A: {(1,1) (2,2) (3,3) (4,4) (5,5) (6.6)}, n (A)= 6‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﻣﺘﺸﺎ‪‬ﲔ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪n( A) 6 1‬‬
‫=‬
‫=‬
‫‪n( S) 36 6‬‬

‫= )‪P ( A‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ B‬ﻫﻮ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﻇﻬ ﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻧﻘﺎﻃﻬﻤﺎ ‪ ، 10‬ﻓﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪B: {(4,6) (5,5) (6,4)}, n (B) = 3‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﻣﺘﺸﺎ‪‬ﲔ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪n( B) 3 1‬‬
‫=‬
‫=‬
‫‪n( S ) 36 12‬‬

‫= )‪P ( B‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﻣﺘﺸﺎ‪‬ﲔ ﺃﻭ )‪ (or‬ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻧﻘﺎﻃﻬﻤﺎ ‪ ، 10‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪-7‬‬
‫‪ ، ( 3‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪P (B) = 1‬‬
‫‪12‬‬

‫‪,‬‬

‫‪P ( A) = 1‬‬
‫‪6‬‬

‫ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ )‪ ( A∩ B‬ﻓﻴﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﻣﺘﺸﺎ‪‬ﲔ ﻭ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﻬﻤﺎ ‪ 10‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪99‬‬

‫‪( A∩ B) : {(5,5)} , n( A∩ B) = 1‬‬
‫‪n( A ∩ B) 1‬‬
‫= )‪P ( A ∩ B‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪36‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ‪:‬‬

‫) ‪n( S‬‬

‫) ‪P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫=‬
‫=‬
‫‪6 12 36 36 9‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪ -4‬ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ C‬ﻫﻮ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻧﻘﺎﻃﻬﻤﺎ ‪ ، 7‬ﻭﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ B‬ﻫـﻮ ﺣـﺎﺩﺙ‬
‫ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺟﻬﲔ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻧﻘﺎﻃﻬﻤﺎ ‪ ، 10‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫})‪B: {(4,6) (5,5) (6,4)} , C: {(1,6) (2,5) (3,4) (4,3) (5,2) (6,1‬‬
‫‪n (B) = 3‬‬
‫‪n (C) = 6‬‬
‫‪،‬‬
‫‪P ( B ) = 3 36‬‬
‫‪P ( C ) = 6 36‬‬

‫ﻳﻼﺣ ﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﲔ ‪ C, B‬ﺣﺎﺩﺛﲔ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﲔ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 5 -7‬ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪36 36‬‬

‫= ) ‪P ( B ∪ C ) = P ( B) + P (C‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪36 4‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ‬

‫=‬

‫‪Conditional probability‬‬

‫ﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮﺕ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﺁﺧﺮ‬
‫ﻟﻪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﺎ ﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﰲ ﻣﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺟﺤﲔ ﰲ‬
‫ﻣﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋ ﺔ ﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻘـﻮﻡ ﺑﺰﺭﺍﻋـﺔ‬
‫ﳏﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻌﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳋﺮﳚﻲ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺃﻧﻪ ﳑﻦ ﲣﺮﺟﻮﺍ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺃﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ Β‬ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ Α‬ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻳﺮﺍﺩ ﺣـﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻭﻗﻮﻋﻪ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﻠﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ ، Β‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ p( A | B‬ﺑﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘﺮ ﺃ " ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪A‬‬

‫ﲟﻌﻠﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ ، " B‬ﺃﻭ ﻳﻘﺮﺃ " ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ A‬ﺑﺸﺮﻁ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ ، " B‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎ ﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ B‬ﲟﻌﻠﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ‪ ، A‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪100‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 7 -7 ) ، ( 6 -7‬ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻃﻲ ﻫﻮ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺑﲔ‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻡ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 3 -7‬‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ‪ 100‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﳚﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﲔ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻴﲔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﺺ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﻬﻨﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﻤﻞ ﺣﺮ‬

‫‪Sum‬‬
‫‪30‬‬
‫‪35‬‬
‫‪35‬‬
‫‪100‬‬

‫ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺧﺎﺹ‬

‫‪10‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫‪33‬‬

‫ﻋﻤﻞ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻲ‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪35‬‬

‫‪5‬‬
‫‪17‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪32‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻬﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﺺ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺃﻏﺬﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺗﺮﺑﺔ‬
‫‪Sum‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﺍﺧﺘﲑ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳋﺮﳚﲔ ﺑﻄﺮ ﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﳚﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﳑﻦ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﳚﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﳚﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺧ ﺮﳚﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﳑﻦ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﻋﻤﻼ ﺣﺮﺍ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊ ﻞ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﻬﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﻮ ‪ ، A‬ﻭﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ، B‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫‪Sum‬‬

‫ﻋﻤﻞ ﺣﺮ‬

‫ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺧﺎﺹ‬

‫ﻋﻤﻞ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫‪A3‬‬

‫‪A2‬‬

‫‪A1‬‬

‫ﺍ ﳌﻬﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﺺ‬

‫‪30‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪B1‬‬

‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪17‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪13‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪B2‬‬
‫‪B3‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺃﻏﺬﻳﺔ‬

‫‪100‬‬

‫‪33‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺗﺮﺑﺔ‬
‫‪Sum‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳋﺮﳚ ﲔ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻨﺘﻤﻮﻥ ﻟﻘﺴﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻭ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﰲ ﻣﻬﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﺕ ﺣﻮﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ‪. A∩ B‬‬

‫‪101‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﳚﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ‪.‬‬

‫‪f ( B1 ∩ A2 ) 5‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 0.05‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪100‬‬

‫= ) ‪P ( B1 ∩ A2‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﳑﻦ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﳚﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫) ‪P ( A1 ∪ B2 ) = p( A1 ) + P ( B2 ) − P ( A1 ∩ B2‬‬
‫‪35‬‬
‫‪35‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪62‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 0.62‬‬
‫‪100 100 100 100‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﳚﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍﻥ ﺣﺎﺩﺛﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﲣﺮﺝ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﻳﻨﻔﻲ ﲣﺮﺟﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﻯ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﲣﺮﺝ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺴﻤﲔ ﰲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﲢﺎﺩﳘﺎ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪P ( B2 ∪ B3 ) = p ( B2 ) + P ( B3‬‬

‫‪35‬‬
‫‪35‬‬
‫‪70‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 0.70‬‬
‫‪100 100 100‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪ -4‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﳚﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺬﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﳑﻦ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﻋﻤﻼ ﺣﺮﺍ‪،‬‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺷﺮﻃﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻫﻨﺎ " ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﳑﻦ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﻋﻤﻼ ﺣﺮﺍ ‪ A3‬ﺑﺸﺮﻁ‬
‫ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺮﳚﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻋﻠﻮ ﻡ ﺃﻏﺬﻳﺔ ‪ ، B2‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ 10 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪p( A3 ∩ B2 )  100  10‬‬
‫=‬
‫= ) ‪p( A3 | B2‬‬
‫=‬
‫) ‪p ( B2‬‬
‫‪ 35  35‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 100 ‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﺟﺐ ﻣﱰﱄ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﲔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻴﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺒﺰ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺛﻼﺙ ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﰲ ﺃﺣﺪ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺛﻼﺙ ﳐﺎﺑﺰ ﻫﻲ ‪. (C , B , A) :‬‬
‫ﳐﺒﺰ ‪A‬‬
‫ﳐﺒﺰ ‪B‬‬
‫ﳐﺒﺰ ‪C‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫‪36‬‬
‫‪60‬‬
‫‪54‬‬
‫‪150‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻔﺔ‬
‫‪24‬‬
‫‪63‬‬
‫‪33‬‬
‫‪120‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺧﺘﲑﺕ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺒﺰ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺨﺒﺰ‪ B‬؟‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﺎﻟﻔﺔ ؟‬

‫‪ -3‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎ ﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺳﻠﻴﻤﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺨﺒﺰ ‪ C‬؟‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺨﺒﺰ ‪ A‬ﺃﻭ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﺎﻟﻔﺔ ؟‬

‫‪ -5‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺨﺒﺰ ‪ ، A‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﺎﻟﻔﺔ ؟‬

‫ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‬
‫‪60‬‬
‫‪123‬‬
‫‪87‬‬
‫‪270‬‬

‫‪102‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺿﺮﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬

‫‪Probability Multiplying Law‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮ ﻉ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻣﻌﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛـﺎﻥ ‪، B , A‬‬

‫ﺣﺎﺩﺛﺎﻥ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻭﻗﻮﻋﻬﻤﺎ ﻣﻌﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻ ﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ P ( A ∩ B‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﻛ ﺤﺎﺻﻞ ﺿﺮﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﲔ‪ ،‬ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 4 -7‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺍﳋﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻟﻠﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ ‪ ، 60%‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛـﺎﻥ‬

‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺒ ﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳋﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﻤﺪ ‪ ، 70%‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﻏـﲑ ﺍﳌـﺴﻤﺪ ﺓ‬
‫‪ ، 80%‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺧﺘﲑﺕ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﳋﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ؟‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗ ﺒﻴﻊ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ؟‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ ﻭﺗﺒﻴﻊ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ؟‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﳑﻦ ﻻ ﻳ ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣ ﻮﻥ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺗﺒﻴﻊ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ؟‬

‫ﺍﳊــﻞ‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻓﺤﺼﻨﺎ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺤﻮﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺘﲔ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺘﲔ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱄ ﻭﳍﺎ ﺣﺎﻟﺘ ﺎﻥ ‪ } :‬ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ ) ‪ (A1‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ) ‪{ (A2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﳍﺎ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﺎﻥ ‪ } :‬ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺗﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ) ‪ ، (B1‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ) ‪{ (B2‬‬

‫ﻟﺬﺍ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺷﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘ ﻤﺎﻻﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪P ( A1 ) = 0.6‬‬

‫‪103‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺒﻴﻊ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪P (B1 A1 ) = 0.7‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ ﻭﺗﺒﻴﻊ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺣﺎﺩ ﺛﺘﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎ ) ‪ ، (B1 and A1‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 8 -7‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪P ( A1 ∩ B1 ) = P ( A1 ) P (B1 A1‬‬

‫‪= (0.6 )(0.7 ) = 0.42‬‬

‫‪ -4‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻤﻴﺪ ﻭﺗﺒﻴﻊ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪P ( A2 ∩ B1 ) = P ( A2 ) P (B1 A2‬‬
‫‪= (0.4)(0.8) = 0.32‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬

‫‪Independent Events‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺘﺎﻥ ‪ B , A‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﻭﻗﻮﻋﻬﻤﺎ ﻣﻌﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺃﺣﺪﳘﺎ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ‬
‫ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ P ( A ∩ B‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﻘﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺛﺘﺎﻥ ‪ B , A‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺘﺎﻥ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 5 -7‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺧﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ ‪ ، 60%‬ﻭﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻓﺎﻛ ﻬـ ﻪ ‪، 75%‬‬

‫ﻭﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﳋﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻛﻬﺔ ‪ ، 50%‬ﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻓﺎﻛﻬﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ؟‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻻ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻛﻬﺔ ؟‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻫﻞ ﺍﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺎﻛﻬﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺨﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ؟‬

‫ﺍﳊـﻞ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ‪ A‬ﺣ ﺎﺩﺙ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ " ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺧﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ " ‪ B ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ " ﺍﳌﺰ ﺭﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻓﺎﻛﻬﺔ " ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪P ( A) = 0.6 , P ( B) = 0.75 , P ( A ∩ B) = 0.5‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻓﺎﻛﻬﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪P ( A ∪ B) = P ( A) + P ( B) − P ( A ∩ B‬‬

‫‪= (0.6 ) + (0.75) − 0.5 = 0.85‬‬

‫‪104‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻻ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻛﻬﺔ ﻫ ﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪P ( B ) = 1 − P ( B) = 1 − 0.75 = 0.25‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺎﻛﻬﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺨﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪-7‬‬
‫‪(9‬‬
‫‪P ( A) P ( B) = (0.6)(0.75) = 0.45‬‬

‫‪,‬‬

‫‪P ( A ∩ B) = 0.5‬‬

‫ﻭﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ ، P ( A ∩ B) ≠ P ( A) P ( B) :‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺎﻛﻬﺔ )‪ ، (A‬ﻏﲑ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺨﻀﺮﻭﺍﺕ )‪. (B‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 6 -7‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺎﻥ ‪ B , A‬ﺣﺎﺩﺛﺎﻥ ﻣـ ﺴﺘﻘﻼﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛـﺎﻥ‬

‫‪P( B) = 0.5 , P ( A) = 0.6‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪. P ( A ∪ B‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـــﻞ ‪:‬‬

‫ﲟﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺎﻥ ‪ B, A‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻼﻥ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪P ( A ∩ B) = P ( A) P ( B‬‬
‫‪= (0.6)(0.5) = 0.3‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ P ( A ∪ B‬ﻫﻮ‪:‬‬
‫)‪P ( A ∪ B) = P ( A) + P ( B) − P ( A ∩ B‬‬
‫‪= 0.6 + 0.5 − 0.3 = 0.8‬‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻭﺟـﺪ‬

‫‪105‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼـــﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫‪Random Variables and Probability Distributions‬‬

‫‪1/8‬ﻣﻘــﺪﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻧﻮﺍﻋﻬـﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌـﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮ ﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2/8‬ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ‬

‫‪: Random Variable‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻗﻴﻤﺎ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳎـﺎﻝ‬

‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ‪ ،‬ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻌﲔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸ ﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺴﻤﲔ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ‪Discrete Random Variables‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺼﻠﺔ ) ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ( ‪Continuous Random Variables‬‬

‫‪ 3/8‬ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﺼﻞ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺑﻴﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺘﺒﺎﻋﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍ ﺋﻲ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ‬

‫ﲝﺮﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻷﲜﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ ‪ X, Y, Z,….‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺑـﺎﳊﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻷﲜﺪﻳـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ‪ ، x, y, z, … ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻻﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻛﻮﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻊ ﺃﻭﻻﺩ ‪. X: {x= 0,1,2,3,4} ، X‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇ‪‬ﺎﺀ ﺧﺪﻣﺘ ﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ ﻛﻞ ‪ 10‬ﺩﻗﺎﺋﻖ ‪. Y: {y= 0,1,2,3,….} ، Y‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﲰﺪﺓ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﺰﺭﻋﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ‪ 200‬ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻮﺳﻢ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ‪ .....‬ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ‬

‫‪ 1 /3 /8‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﺼﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺒﲔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗـﺮﺗﺒﻂ‬
‫ﺑ ﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌ ﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﰲ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐ ﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﻔـﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻳﺄﺧـﺬ ﺍﻟﻘـﻴﻢ‪ ، X : {x = x1 , x2 ,..., xn } ،‬ﻭﻛـﺎﻥ‬

‫‪106‬‬
‫) ‪ P ( X = xi ) = f ( xi‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ ، xi‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺗﻜـﻮﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ ، X‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻮﺩﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻟ ﻘـﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠ ﻤـﺘﻐﲑ } ‪ ، X : {x = x1 , x2 ,..., xn‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜـﺎﱐ ﺑـﻪ ﺍﻟﻘـﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ﳍـﺬﺍ ﺍﳌـﺘﻐﲑ‬
‫) ‪ ، P ( X = xi ) = f ( xi‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪(1 -8‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﺼﻞ‬

‫ﻭﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ) ‪ f ( xi‬ﺑﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــ ﺎﻝ )‪(1 -8‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺡ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ‪ ، 0.60‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬

‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺒﻴﻌﺎﺗﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﻠﺘﻔﺎﺡ ‪ ، 0.40‬ﺍﺷﺘﺮﻯ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻋﺒﻮﺗﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻛﻮﻥ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﺍﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺡ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪. X‬‬
‫• ﺍﺭﺳﻢ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﺍﳊــ ﻞ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪P ( X ≤ 1.5) ، P ( X = 1.5) ، P ( X ≤ 1) ، P ( X = 1‬‬

‫• ﺣﺪﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﺍ ﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺷﺮﺍﺀ ﻭﺣﺪﺗﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺮﺍﻍ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺑﻊ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪107‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﺍﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘ ﻔﺎﺡ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ‪X‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻴﻞ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﻯ ﻋﺒﻮﺗﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﺍﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔـﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ x= 0‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺗﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻯ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ) ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﺁﺧ ﺮ (‬
‫‪ x= 1‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺗﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ) ﺁﺧﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜـﻲ (‬
‫ﺃﻭ ) ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺁﺧﺮ (‬
‫‪ x= 2‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺗﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ) ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ (‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ‪ ، X: {x= 0,1,2} :‬ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﳍﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﺍ ﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺡ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‬

‫) ‪f ( xi‬‬

‫‪xi‬‬

‫‪0.16‬‬
‫‪0.48‬‬
‫‪0.36‬‬
‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪Σ‬‬

‫• ﺭﺳﻢ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪: f(x‬‬

‫• ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ ، P ( X ≤ x‬ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ‬

‫‪108‬‬
‫ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ )‪ ، F (x‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺘﺠ ﻤﻴﻌﻲ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌـﺸﺘﺮﺍﺓ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔـﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﺍﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺡ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‬

‫) ‪f ( xi‬‬

‫) ‪F ( xi‬‬
‫‪F (0) = P ( X ≤ 0) = 0.16‬‬

‫‪0.16‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪F (1) = P ( X ≤ 1) = 0.16 + 0.48 = 0.64‬‬

‫‪0.48‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪F (2) = P ( X ≤ 2) = 0.64 + 0.36 = 1.00‬‬

‫‪0.36‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫•‬

‫‪xi‬‬

‫‪Σ‬‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ‪P ( X ≤ 1.5) ، P ( X = 1.5) ، P ( X ≤ 1) ، P ( X = 1) -:‬‬
‫‪P ( X = 1) = f (1) = 0.48‬‬
‫‪P ( X ≤ 1) = F (1) = 0.64‬‬
‫‪P ( X = 1.5) = f (1.5) = 0‬‬
‫‪P ( X ≤ 1.5) = F (1.5) = F (1) = 0.64‬‬

‫• ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ -:‬ﺭﺗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻫﻮ ‪ ، 0.50‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ‪ M‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ، P ( X ≤ M ) = F ( M ) = 0.50‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻘﻊ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟ ﻘﻴﻤﺘﲔ )‪ (1,0‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺳﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪F ( xi‬‬

‫‪xi‬‬

‫‪0.16‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪F ( M ) = 0.50‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪:‬‬

‫‪0.5 − 0.16‬‬
‫‪× (1 − 0) = 0.71‬‬
‫‪0.64 − 0.16‬‬

‫‪M‬‬
‫‪0.64‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪1.00‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪M = 0+‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ‪ = Mode‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ xi‬ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﻷﻛﱪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ Mode = 1‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪. f (1) = 0.48 :‬‬

‫‪109‬‬

‫‪ 2 /3 /8‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﺼﻞ‬

‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻠﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ) µ‬ﻣﻴﻮ ( ‪ ،‬ﻭﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻭﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻪ ﺑ ﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ ) σ 2‬ﺳﻴﺠﻤﺎ ( ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺤﺴﺐ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ )‪(2-8‬‬

‫ﰲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﺍﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﺍﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺕ ‪ -‬ﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍ ﻟﻨﺴﱯ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـ ﻞ‬

‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ) ‪ ( 4 -8 ) ، ( 3 -8‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﻄﻠـﺐ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻣﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫) ‪f ( xi‬‬

‫‪∑x‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪i‬‬

‫‪ ، ∑ xi f ( xi ) ,‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫) ‪xi2 f ( xi‬‬

‫) ‪xi f ( xi‬‬

‫) ‪f ( xi‬‬

‫‪xi‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0.48‬‬
‫‪1.44‬‬
‫‪1.92‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0.48‬‬
‫‪0.72‬‬
‫‪1.20‬‬

‫‪0.16‬‬
‫‪0.48‬‬
‫‪0.36‬‬
‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Σ‬‬

‫‪µ = ∑ xi f ( xi ) = 1.20‬‬

‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﻭﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻭﻻ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻭﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪σ 2 = ∑ xi2 f ( xi ) − µ 2 = 1.92 − (1.20) 2 = 0.48‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪σ = σ 2 = 0.48 = 0.693‬‬

‫ﺕ ‪ -‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪110‬‬
‫‪σ‬‬
‫‪0.693‬‬
‫= ‪× 100‬‬
‫‪× 100 = 57.7‬‬
‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪µ‬‬

‫= ‪C.V‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﺟﺐ ﻣﱰﱄ ‪-:‬‬

‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺣﺪ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻓـﺔ‬

‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪، X‬‬

‫}‪X : {x = 0,1,2,3,4,5‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪0.02‬‬

‫‪0.05‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪0.25 0.23‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪0.15 0.30‬‬

‫‪ ) x‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ (‬

‫)‪f (x‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺣﺪﺩ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ) ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ (‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻮﺍﻝ ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍ ﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻛﻮﻥ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ )‪ F (x‬ﰒ ﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻭﺣﺪﺗﲔ‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ‪ 3‬ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺕ ‪ -‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ‪ 500‬ﺃﺳﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ‬
‫‪ 3‬ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ؟‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 4/8‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‬

‫ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭ ﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ ، f (x‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﱂ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴ ﻤﻰ ﲟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺴﺐ ﻟﻪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﱂ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺇﻻ ﺣﻘـﺎﺋﻖ‬
‫ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﳎﻬﻮﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﰲ ﺣ ﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻘﺮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺯﻳـﻊ ﺛﻨـﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳊـﺪﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺍﺳﻮﻥ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1 /4/8‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ‬

‫‪The Binomial Distribution‬‬

‫ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺘﺎﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻭﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﲝﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺠ ﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﲝﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺸﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺫﻟﻚ‪:‬‬
‫• ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﻣﺮﻳﺾ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﳍﺎ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺘﺎﻥ ‪ ) :‬ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﺍﺀ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ (‬
‫• ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺤﺺ ﻋﺒﻮﺓ ﺑﺪﺍﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻛﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﳍﺎ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺘﺎﻥ ) ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺇﻣﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻠﻴﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﻴﺒﺔ(‬
‫• ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﳍﺎ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺘ ﺎﻥ ) ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺑﺔ(‬
‫• ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ) ﳒﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﻮﺏ(‬

‫‪111‬‬
‫• ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﻟﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﻌﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ) ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻻ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ (‪.‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺮﺭﺕ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ‪ n‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴ ﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻞ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﻴﺘﺎﻥ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ " ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﳒﺎﺡ " ﻭﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪p‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ " ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺸﻞ " ﻭﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻫﻮ ‪q = 1 − p‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﶈﺎﻭﻻﺕ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻛﻞ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻴﺲ ﳍ ﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﶈﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ " ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤـﺎﻡ " ﰲ ﺍﻟــ ‪n‬‬

‫ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﻥ ﻣـﺪﻱ ﺍﳌـﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌـﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻭﺍﻟـﺬﻱ ﻳﻌـ ﱪ ﻋـﻦ ﻋـﺪﺩ ﺣـﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺠـﺎﺡ ﻫـﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫}‪ ، X : {x = 0,1,2,..., n‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳛﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ P ( X = x) = f ( x‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ) ‪( nx‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ‪ x‬ﻣﻦ ‪ n‬ﻣﻊ ﺇﳘﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺴﺐ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳ ﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 7  = 7 × 6 × 5 = 35 =  7 ‬‬
‫‪ 3  3 × 2 ×1‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪ 7  =  7  = 1‬‬
‫‪0 7‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 3 -8‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺽ ﻣﻌﲔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﻗﲑ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﺔ ﻫﻮ‬

‫‪ ، 0.60‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭ ‪ 5‬ﻣﺼﺎﺑﲔ ‪‬ﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺮﺽ ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟـﺬﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺠﻴﺒﲔ ) ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﺀ ( ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ؟‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻛﺘﺐ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ f (x‬ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺕ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ‪ 3‬ﻣﺮﺿﻰ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭ ؟‬
‫• ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺮﻳﺾ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ؟‬
‫• ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ‪ 2‬ﻣﺮﺿﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ؟‬
‫ﺙ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪112‬‬

‫ﺍﳊــ ﻞ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺝ ‪ -‬ﺣﺪﺩ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ‪ X‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻛﻤﻲ ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻫـﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫}‪: X : {x = 0,1,2,3,4,5‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪:‬‬

‫‪،n =5‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ‪:‬‬

‫‪q = 1 − p = 0.40 ، p = 0.60‬‬
‫‪f ( x) =  nx ( p ) x (q ) n − x‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬

‫)(‬

‫‪= 5x (0.6) x (0.4) 5 − x , x = 0,1, 2,3, 4,5‬‬

‫ﺕ ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ‪ 3‬ﻣﺮﺿﻰ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺀ ‪P ( x = 3) = f (3) :‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍ ﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺮﻳﺾ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ‪P ( x ≥ 1) :‬‬

‫)(‬

‫‪5× 4× 3‬‬
‫= ‪f (3) = 53 (0.6) 3 (0.4) 5−3‬‬
‫‪× 0.216 × 0.16 = 10 × 0.03456‬‬
‫‪3 × 2 ×1‬‬
‫‪= 0.3456‬‬

‫)‪P ( x ≥ 1) = f (1) + f (2) + f (3) + f (4) + f (5) = 1 − f (0‬‬

‫) ([‬

‫]‬

‫‪= 1 − 50 (0.6) 0 (0.4) 5 = 1 − 1 × 1 × 0.01024 = 0.98976‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ‪ 2‬ﻣﺮﺿﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ‪: P ( x ≤ 2) :‬‬
‫)‪P ( x ≤ 2) = f (2) + f (1) + f (0‬‬

‫)(‬

‫)(‬

‫)(‬

‫‪= 52 (0.6) 2 (0.4) 3 + 15 (0.6)1 (0.4) 4 + 50 (0.6) 0 (0.4) 5‬‬
‫‪5× 4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪(0.36)(0.064) + (0.6)(0.0256) + 1(1)(0.01024‬‬
‫‪2 ×1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪= 0.2304 + 0.0768 + 0.01024 = 0.31744‬‬

‫ﺙ ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ) ‪ (µ‬ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪-8‬‬
‫‪ ، ( 3‬ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪µ = np = 5(0.60) = 3‬‬

‫• ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳉﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﺐ ﻟﻠﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ ، ( 4 -8‬ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ‬

‫‪113‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻫﻮ‪:‬‬

‫‪σ 2 = npq‬‬
‫‪= 5(0.60)(0.40) = 1.2‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪σ = npq‬‬
‫‪= 1.2 = 1.095‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪σ‬‬
‫‪1.095‬‬
‫= ‪× 100‬‬
‫‪× 100 = 36.5%‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪µ‬‬

‫= ‪V.C‬‬

‫ﺝ ‪ -‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻳ ﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ‪ p‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬

‫‪p = 0.5‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬

‫‪p < 0.5‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬

‫‪p > 0.5‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻ ﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ p = 0.6 > 0.5‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺳﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2 /4/8‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺍﺳﻮﱐ‬

‫‪Poisson Distribution‬‬

‫ﻳﻜﺜﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﰲ‬

‫ﺣﺎ ﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻧﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺫﻟﻚ‪:‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪X : {x = 0,1,2,...} .‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﺭﻱ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﻮﺳﻢ ‪X : {x = 0,1,2,...} .‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺧﺪﻣﺘﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ ﻛﻞ ‪ 10‬ﺩﻗﺎﺋﻖ ‪X : {x = 0,1,2,...} .‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﺯﻳﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﻳﺾ ﻟﻠﻄﺒﻴﺐ ﻛﻞ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪X : {x = 0,1,2,...} .‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﻤﺮﺍﺀ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻷﺳﺒﻮﻉ ‪X : {x = 0,1,2,...} .‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺃﺧﻄﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺻﻔﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ‪X : {x = 0,1,2,...} .‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺍﺳﻮﱐ‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﺯﻣﲏ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻫـﻮ ‪ ، µ‬ﻭﻛـﺎﻥ ﺍﳌـﺘﻐﲑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺪﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻫﻮ‪:‬‬
‫}‪ ، X : {x = 0,1,2,...‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌـﺪﻯ ﻋﺒـﺎﺭﺓ ﻋـﻦ ﻓﺌـﺔ ﻣﻔﺘﻮﺣـﺔ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟـﻴﻤﲔ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻝ‬

‫‪114‬‬
‫)‪ P ( X = x) = f ( x‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﻋﺪﺩ ‪ x‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳍـﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌـﺪﻝ‪،‬‬
‫ﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ e‬ﻫﻲ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﻮ ﺟﺪ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ‪e = 2.718 :‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻵﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺑﺎﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﲔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﻼ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ‪e − 1.5‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻣﺎ !‪ x‬ﻓﺘﺴﻤﻰ "ﻣﻀﺮﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ‪ " x‬ﻭﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪x!= x( x − 1)( x − 2)...3 × 2 × 1 :‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 4 -8‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ‬

‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻮﻥ ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 3‬ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺷﻬﺮﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣـﺪﺍﺕ ﺍ ﻟـﱵ‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ؟‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻛﺘﺐ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ f (x‬ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺡ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷ ﺳﺮﺓ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻭﺣﺪﺗﲔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ؟‬
‫• ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷ ﻗﻞ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ؟‬
‫• ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ‪ 3‬ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ؟‬
‫ﺥ ‪ -‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩ ‪ -‬ﺣﺪﺩ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـ ﻞ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ‪ X‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻛﻤﻲ ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﻫ ﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻫﻮ ‪: X : {x = 0,1,2,3,...} :‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪:‬‬
‫ﲟﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ﻫﻮ ‪ ، µ = 3 :‬ﺇﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪115‬‬

‫‪, x = 0,1, 2,...‬‬

‫‪e −µ µ x‬‬
‫= )‪f ( x‬‬
‫!‪x‬‬
‫‪e −3 3 x‬‬
‫=‬

‫!‪x‬‬

‫ﺡ ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻭﺣﺪﺗﲔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻬﺮ‪f(2) ،‬‬

‫)‪e −3 32 0.0498(9‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 0.22404‬‬
‫!‪2‬‬
‫‪2 ×1‬‬

‫= )‪f (2‬‬

‫• ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪P ( X ≥ 1) = f (1) + f (2) + ....‬‬

‫‪e −3 30 0.0498‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪= 1 − 0.0498 = 0.9502‬‬
‫!‪0‬‬
‫‪1‬‬

‫‪= 1 − f (0) = 1 −‬‬

‫• ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ‪ 3‬ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪P ( X ≤ 3) = f (3) + f (2) + f (1) + f (0‬‬

‫‪e −3 33 e −3 32 e −3 31 e −3 30 0.0498‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫!‪3‬‬
‫!‪2‬‬
‫!‪1‬‬
‫!‪0‬‬
‫‪1‬‬

‫=‬

‫‪ 27 9 3 1 ‬‬
‫‪= 0.0498 + + +  = 0.0498(13) = 0.6474‬‬
‫‪ 6 2 1 1‬‬

‫ﺥ ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺳ ﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ) ‪ (µ‬ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺍﺳﻮﻥ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﻄﺎﺓ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪µ =3‬‬

‫ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪σ2 =µ =3‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻮ‪:‬‬

‫‪σ = µ = 3 = 1.732‬‬
‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ‪:‬‬

‫‪σ‬‬
‫‪1.732‬‬
‫= ‪× 100‬‬
‫‪× 100 = 57.7%‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪µ‬‬

‫ﺩ ‪ -‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺍﺳﻮﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ‪.‬‬

‫= ‪V.C‬‬

‫‪116‬‬

‫‪ 5/8‬ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ‬

‫‪Continuous Random Variables‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻗﻴﻤﺎ ﻣﺘﺼﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻻ‪‬ﺎﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻪ‬

‫ﺩﺍﺧــﻞ ﳎﺎﻟــﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓــﺈﺫﺍ ﻛــﺎﻥ ‪ X‬ﻣــﺘﻐﲑ ﻋــﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻣــﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘــﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌــﺪﻯ )‪ ، (a,b‬ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ ، { X = x : a < x < b} :‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ‪ X‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﻻ‪‬ﺎﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳊـﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫)‪ ، (a,b‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫•‬

‫ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻟﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺠﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﺘﺮ ‪{ X = x : 10 < x < 40} :‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﱰﺭﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻋﻼﻑ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ }‪{ X = x : 1000 < x < 15000‬‬

‫• ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﺣﻔﻆ ﺍﻟﺪﺟﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﱪﺩ ﺑﺎﻷﻳﺎﻡ‪{ X = x : 1 < x < 5} ،‬‬

‫•‬

‫ﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﳉﺴﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻴﻠﻮﺟﺮﺍﻡ ﻟﻸﻋﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻦ )‪{ X = x : 55 < x < 80} ، (40-30‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1 /5 /8‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‬

‫‪Continuous Probability‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﺪﺭﺝ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺝ‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻭﺻﻒ ﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺿﺎﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺩﻗﻴﻖ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣـﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﻟـﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪(1 -8‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣ ﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‬

‫‪117‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺬﺍ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣـﺪ‬
‫ـﺎﻝ ‪Probability Distribution‬‬
‫ﺍﻟــﺼﺤﻴﺢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗــﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟــﺔ )‪ f(x‬ﺑﺪﺍﻟــﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓــﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤـ‬

‫)‪ ، Function(p.d.f‬ﻭﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻳﻘﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌ ﺪﻯ ‪ ، X = {x : a π x π b} :‬ﻭﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ f (x‬ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ )‪ f (x‬ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ )‪ (a,b‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪x ∈ (a , b) ، f ( x) φ 0 :‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻟﺘ ﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ‪ a‬ﺣﱴ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠـﻰ ‪ b‬ﻳﻌـﱪ ﻋـﻦ ﳎﻤـﻮﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻲ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ‪ x = a‬ﺣﱴ ‪ ، x = b‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌـﲏ‬
‫ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﺳ ﻔﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲏ ﺑﲔ )‪. (a , b‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻳﻘﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ )‪ (d,c‬ﺃﻱ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻝ‬
‫) ‪ ، p(c < x < d‬ﳚﺐ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲏ ﻣﻦ ‪ x = c‬ﺣﱴ ‪ x = d‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫‪118‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -4‬ﰲ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ p( x = value‬ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺎ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻜﻲ ﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﳚﺐ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪(2 -8‬‬

‫ﺑﻌﺾ ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬

‫‪(a + bx) n +1‬‬
‫)‪b ( n +1‬‬

‫‪∫ e dx = e‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪∫ (a +bx) dx = log‬‬

‫)‪( a + bx‬‬

‫‪integration‬‬

‫) ‪e ( a + bx‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫= ‪∫ (a + bx) dx‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪b‬‬

‫) ‪( a + bx‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪b‬‬

‫‪xn +1‬‬

‫‪and‬‬

‫‪n +1‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫= ‪∫ x dx‬‬

‫‪∫ e dx = e‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫)‪∫ x dx = log ( x‬‬
‫‪x‬‬

‫‪and‬‬
‫‪and‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪e‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬
‫)‪(2‬‬
‫)‪(3‬‬

‫∞‬

‫‪gamma‬‬

‫‪Γ( n + 1) = ∫ xn e − xdx = n!= n(n − 1)(n − 2)...3 × 2 × 1‬‬

‫‪Incomplete‬‬
‫‪gamma‬‬

‫‪a‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ai ‬‬
‫‪IΓ(n + 1) = ∫ xne − xdx = n!1 − e − a ∑ ‬‬
‫‪i = 0 i! ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫)‪(5‬‬

‫= ‪B(m + 1, n + 1) = ∫ xn (1 − x) m dx‬‬

‫)‪(6‬‬

‫)‪(4‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪Beta‬‬

‫!‪m!n‬‬
‫!)‪(m + n + 1‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـ ﺎﻝ ) ‪( 5 -8‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ﻟﻸﺳﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺬﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻪ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪cx(10 − x) , 0 < x < 10‬‬
‫‪0 otherwise‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ‪c‬‬

‫{ = )‪f ( x‬‬

‫‪119‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﻳﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ )‪ (8,5‬ﺃﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ‪ 600‬ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻋـﻦ ‪ 3‬ﺁﻻﻑ ﺧـﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ؟‬

‫ﺍﳊـــﻞ‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪c‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪:‬‬

‫‪x=b‬‬

‫‪f ( x) dx = 1‬‬
‫∫‬
‫‪x=a‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫‪  x2  x3 ‬‬
‫‪∫x= 0cx(10 − x) dx = c x∫= 0(10 x − x ) dx = c 10 2  − 3 ‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪x =10‬‬

‫‪x =10‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪x3 ‬‬
‫‪(1000) ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪= c 5 x2 −  = c (5(100) −‬‬
‫‪) −0‬‬
‫‪3 0‬‬
‫‪3 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪500‬‬
‫‪c =1‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪c = 3 500 = 0.006‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﻳﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ )‪ (8,5‬ﺃﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺧﻼ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ﻫﻮ ‪.‬‬
‫‪8‬‬

‫‪x =8‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪x3 ‬‬
‫‪p(5 < x < 8) = ∫ 0.006 x(10 − x) dx = 0.0065 x2 − ‬‬
‫‪3 5‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪x= 5‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪83  ‬‬
‫‪53  ‬‬
‫])‪= 0.006  5(8) 2 −  −  5(5) 2 −   = 0.006[(149.3333) − (83.3333‬‬
‫‪3 ‬‬
‫‪3 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪= 0.006(66) = 0.396‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ‪ 600‬ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ‪ 3‬ﺁﻻﻑ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟـﺸﻬﺮ‬

‫ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪number of family = 600 p ( x < 3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬

‫‪= 600∫ 0.006 x(10 − x)dx‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪x3 ‬‬
‫‪= 3.6 5 x2 −  = 3.6[45 − 9] − 0 = 129.6 ≈ 130‬‬
‫‪3 0‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 130‬ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2 /5 /8‬ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‬

‫‪120‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ )‪ f (x‬ﻫﻲ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ a < x < b ، x‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﺪﺍﻟﺔ )‪ h(x‬ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪( 5 -8‬‬

‫ﰲ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊـــﻞ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪µ = E ( x) = xf ( x)dx = ∫ x(0.006 x(10 − x) ) = 0.006 ∫ (10 x2 − x3 )dx‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪ x‬‬
‫‪ 10000 10000 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪x ‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫‪= 0.00610 −  = 0.006‬‬
‫‪ − (0 )‬‬
‫‪4 0‬‬
‫‪4 ‬‬
‫‪ 3‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 3‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪= 60   = 5‬‬
‫‪12 ‬‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ‪ 5‬ﺁﻻﻑ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫‪σ 2 = E ( x 2 ) − u 2 = E ( x 2 ) − (5) 2‬‬
‫‪b‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪E ( x ) = ∫ x f ( x) dx = 0.006 ∫ (10 x3 − x4 )dx‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪a‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪  x4   x5 ‬‬
‫‪100000 100000 ‬‬
‫‪= 0.00610  −   = 0.006 ‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫‪−0‬‬
‫‪5 ‬‬
‫‪ 4‬‬
‫‪  4   5  0‬‬
‫‪ 1 ‬‬
‫‪= 600  = 30‬‬
‫‪ 20 ‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻫﻮ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ ، σ 2 = 30 − 25 = 5‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪σ = var iance = 5 = 2.236‬‬

‫‪121‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ‬

‫‪σ‬‬
‫‪2.236‬‬
‫= ‪× 100‬‬
‫‪× 100 = 44.72%‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪µ‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ‬

‫= ‪C.V‬‬

‫‪(C.D.F) Cumulative Distribution Function‬‬

‫ﻳﺮﻣﺰ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ )‪ (C.D.F)= F(x‬ﻭﲢﺴﺐ ﺑﺈﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺤﻬﺎ ﺑﻴﺎ ﻧﻴﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪( 5 -8‬‬

‫ﰲ ﺍﳌ ﺜﺎﻝ ) ‪ ( 5 -8‬ﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ‪ ، C.D.F‬ﰒ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟـﺔ ﳊـﺴﺎﺏ‬

‫ﺍﺣ ﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ‪ 5‬ﺁﻻﻑ ﺟﻨﻴﻪ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳊــﻞ‬
‫•‬

‫ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ‪C.D.F‬‬
‫‪x‬‬

‫‪F ( x) = ∫ f ( x) dx‬‬
‫‪x‬‬

‫‪  x3 ‬‬
‫‪ −  ‬‬
‫‪  3  0‬‬

‫•‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪x‬‬

‫‪  x2‬‬
‫‪= ∫ 0.006 x(10 − x)dx = 0.00610‬‬
‫‪  2‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪ x3 ‬‬
‫‪= 0.0065 x2 −  ‬‬
‫‪ 3 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ )‪ ، F (5) = p ( x ≤ 5‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﻋﻦ ‪ x = 5‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ )‪ F(x‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪122‬‬
‫= )‪F (5) = P ( x ≤ 5‬‬
‫‪ 2 x3 ‬‬
‫‪125 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪= 0.0065 x −  = 0.006 125 −‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪3 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 250 ‬‬
‫‪= 0.006‬‬
‫‪ = 0.5‬‬
‫‪ 3 ‬‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪ 50%‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ‪ 5‬ﺁﻻﻑ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ‬
‫‪F ( x) φ 0 -1‬‬

‫‪F ( a ) = 0 -2‬‬

‫‪F (b) = 1 -3‬‬

‫‪p( x φ x) = 1 − F ( x) -4‬‬

‫‪f ( x) = dF ( x) dx -5‬‬

‫‪ 6/8‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‬
‫‪Continuous Probability Distributions‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﳍﺎ ﺩﻭﺍﻝ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 1 /6 /8‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻢ‬

‫‪Uniform distribution‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫‪p.d.f‬‬

‫ﻫﻮ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻟﻪ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪﺙ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻢ‪،‬‬

‫ﻓ ﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪ x‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻟﻪ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻢ ‪ ، Uniform‬ﻣﺪﺍﻩ ﻫﻮ ‪ a < x < b‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻪ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪123‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﱂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺘﺎﻥ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﳘﺎ ) ‪ ، (b, a‬ﻭﻟﺬﺍ ﻳﻜﺘﺐ ﺭﻣﺰ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟ ﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ )‪x ~ U (a , b‬‬

‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻄﻴﻞ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪ ، µ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪ σ 2‬ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪(b − a ) 2‬‬
‫‪a +b‬‬
‫= ‪, σ2‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫= )‪µ = E ( x‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺇﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ‬

‫‪C.D.F‬‬

‫ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ )‪ F ( x‬ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻵﰐ‬

‫ﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ) ‪( 6 -8‬‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﻮﺭﺩ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ 1500‬ﻃﻦ ﺑﻄﺎﻃﺲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺿﻌ ﻬﺎ ﰲ ﳐﺰﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺎﻡ ﺑﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﺑﻜﻤﻴـﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺍﺭ ﺷﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﻊ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻢ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻵﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﻊ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺮﻭﺭ ﺳﺒﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﺨﺰﻥ؟‬

‫ﺍﳊـــﻞ‬

‫• ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪ x‬ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﻊ ﻣﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟـﺸﻬﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪، 0 < x < 12‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪, 0 < x < 12‬‬
‫‪12 − 0 12‬‬

‫= )‪f ( x‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺟ ﻮﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﺨﺰﻥ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺳﺒﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ‪ Q‬ﻫﻲ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻃﺲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺨﺰﻥ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣـﺮﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺳﺒﻌﺔ ﺃﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪7−0‬‬
‫‪) = 625 Ton‬‬
‫‪12 − 0‬‬

‫‪Q × p( x > 7) = Q × (1 − F (7)) = 1500(1 −‬‬

‫‪124‬‬

‫‪ 2 /6 /8‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫‪Negative Exponential distribution‬‬

‫‪p.d.f‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪ x‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻟﻪ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺃﺳﻲ ﺳﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﺍﻩ ﻫﻮ ∞ < ‪ 0 < x‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺍﻟـﺔ‬

‫ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻪ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﱂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻫﻲ ) ‪(θ‬‬

‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻟﺐ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪ ، µ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪ σ 2‬ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪θ2‬‬

‫= ‪µ = E ( x) = θ1 , σ 2‬‬

‫‪C.D.F‬‬

‫ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ )‪ F ( x‬ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻵ ﰐ‬

‫)‬

‫(‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫‪F ( x) = p ( X ≤ x) = ∫ f ( x)dx = 1 − e−θx‬‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫ﻣﺜــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 7 -8‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻹ‪‬ﺎﺀ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻴﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺃﺳﻲ ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 2‬ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻭﺟﺪ ﻣﺎ‬

‫ﻳﻠﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻹ‪‬ﺎﺀ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻴﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺇ‪‬ﺎﺀ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻴﻞ ﰲ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍ ﳊـــﻞ‬

‫• ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪:‬‬

‫‪125‬‬
‫ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪ x‬ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣ ﻨﻴﺔ ﻹ‪‬ـﺎﺀ ﺧﺪﻣـﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻴـﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﻴﻘـﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬
‫∞ < ‪ ، 0 < x‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ ، 1 θ = 2‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ) ‪ (θ‬ﻫـﻲ ‪، (θ = 0.5) :‬‬
‫ﻭﺗﻜﺘﺐ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫∞ < ‪e−0.5 x, 0 < x‬‬

‫‪f ( x) = 0.5‬‬

‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺇ‪‬ﺎﺀ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻴﻞ ﰲ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪) = 0.3935‬‬

‫‪ 3 /6 /8‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬

‫)‪−0.5(1‬‬

‫‪p( x ≤ 1) = (1 − e− 0.5 x ) = (1 − e‬‬

‫‪The Normal Distribution‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍ ﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻨـﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﺷﺎﻣﻼ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﺽ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒـﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻋﺮﺽ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫‪p.d.f‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪ x‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻟﻪ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﺍﻩ ﻫﻮ ∞ < ‪ − ∞ < x‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ‬

‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻪ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻟﻪ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﱯ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪. µ‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﱂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺗﻮ ﺟﺪ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺘﲔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪E (x) = µ :‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪var( x) = σ 2 :‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪ x‬ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ x ~ N (µ ,σ 2 ) :‬ﻭﻳﻌﲏ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌـﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪x‬‬

‫‪126‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ ، µ‬ﻭﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪. σ 2‬‬

‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻳﺸﺘﻖ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ‪σ 2‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ‪µ‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﻣﻨﺤﲏ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﱯ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ ‪µ‬‬

‫ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬

‫) ‪p( x1 < x < x2‬‬

‫ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌ ﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﻫﻮ ) ‪ ، p( x1 < x < x2‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﳛﺪﺩ ﺑﺎﳌـﺴﺎﺣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ) ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ( ﲢﺴﺐ ﺑﺈﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣـﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪dx‬‬

‫‪− 1  x− µ ‬‬
‫‪2 σ ‬‬

‫‪x2‬‬

‫‪e‬‬

‫‪x2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫∫ = ‪p( x1 < x < x2 ) = ∫ f ( x)dx‬‬
‫‪x1‬‬
‫‪x1 σ 2π‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳉﺄ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﲔ ﺇﱃ ﻋﻤ ﻞ ﲢﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺭﻳﺎﺿـﻴﺔ ‪ ، Transform‬ﳝﻜـﻦ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ x− µ ‬‬
‫‪z=‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ σ ‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ‪ z‬ﺑﺎﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ ‪ ، Standard Normal Variable‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﻟﻪ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﺣ ﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﻪ ﻫﻮ ‪E ( z) = 0 :‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﻮ ‪var( z) = 1 :‬‬

‫‪127‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ‪ z‬ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﻮﺯ ‪ z ~ N (0,1) :‬ﻭﻳﻌﲏ ﺫﻟ ﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ x‬ﻳﺘﺒﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻂ ) ‪ ، ( 0‬ﻭﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ) ‪. ( 1‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻗﻮﺱ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﱯ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﺻﻤﻢ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﻴﻮﻥ ﺟﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍ ﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ‪ ، F ( z) = P ( Z < z) :‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻣﺒﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻧﻌﻮﺩ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ) ‪ p( x1 < x < x2‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﺔ ‪: z = ( x − µ) σ‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ) ‪ ( x1, x2‬ﺇﱃ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪. z1 = ( x1 − µ ) σ , z2 = ( x2 − µ ) σ‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪: p( x1 < x < x2 ) = p( z1 < z < z2 ) :‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪ ﻡ ﺟﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟـﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻄـﻲ ﺍﳌـﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻـﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻝ‬
‫)‪F ( z) = P ( Z < z‬‬

‫‪ -4‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺃﻭﺟﺪ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ‪P ( z < 1.57) -‬‬

‫ﺏ‪P ( z < −2.33) -‬‬

‫ﺝ‪P ( z > 1.96) -‬‬

‫ﺩ‪-‬‬

‫‪128‬‬
‫)‪P (−2.01 < z < 1.28‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﻞ‬
‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ P ( z < 1.57) = F (1.57‬ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‬

‫ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮ ﺏ ﻫﻮ ‪P ( z < 1.57) = F (1.57) = 0.9418 :‬‬

‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻝ )‪ P ( z < −2.33) = F (−2.33‬ﻣﻮﺿـﺤﺔ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪P(z<-2.33‬‬

‫‪.08 .09‬‬

‫‪.07‬‬

‫‪.06‬‬

‫‪.05‬‬

‫‪.04‬‬

‫‪.03‬‬

‫‪.02‬‬

‫‪.01‬‬

‫‪.00‬‬

‫‪z‬‬
‫‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬‬
‫‬‫‪2.70‬‬
‫‬‫‪2.60‬‬

‫‪129‬‬
‫‬‫‪2.50‬‬
‫‬‫‪2.40‬‬
‫‪0.0099‬‬

‫‬‫‪2.30‬‬
‫‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬‬
‫‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ‪P ( z < −2.33) = 0.0099 :‬‬

‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ P ( z > 1.96‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﳛﺴﺐ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪P ( z > 1.96) = 1 − p( z < 1.96) = 1 − F (1.96‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻜــﺸﻒ ﰲ ﺍﳉــﺪﻭﻝ ﺑــﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘــﺔ ﺍﻟــﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤــﺔ ‪ 1.96‬ﳒــﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ، p( z < 1.96) = 0.9750‬ﻭﻣـــﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜـــﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤـــﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻄﻠـــﻮﺏ ﻫـــﻮ ‪:‬‬
‫‪P ( z > 1.96) = 1 − 0.9750 = 0.0250‬‬

‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﺳﻔﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪ P (−2.01 < z < 1.28‬ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪P (−2.01 < z < 1.28) = F (1.28) − F (−2.01‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻜﺸﻒ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﻋﻦ ﻫﺎﺗﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺘﲔ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪P (−2.01 < z < 1.28) = 0.8997 − 0.0222 = 0.8775‬‬

‫ﻣﺜـــﺎﻝ ) ‪( 8 -8‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﻟﻸﺳﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺃﺣﺪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﻪ ‪ 80‬ﺃﻟـﻒ‬

‫ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺒﺎﻳﻨﻪ ‪ . 900‬ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ‪.‬‬

‫‪130‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺩﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ‪ 60‬ﺃﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ؟‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻣ ﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻨﻪ ‪ 0.975‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ؟‬

‫ﺍﳊـــﻞ‬

‫‪ -1‬ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ‪ x‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﺑﺎﻷﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳـﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌـﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻌﺎﳌﻪ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪E ( x) = µ = 80‬‬

‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻫﻮ ‪Var ( x) = σ 2 = 900 :‬‬

‫)‪x ~ N (80,900‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫) (‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪− 1 x−80‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪30‬‬
‫‪e‬‬
‫‪, −∞ < x < ∞ , π = 22 / 7‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫= )‪f ( x‬‬
‫‪30 2π‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺩﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ‪ 60‬ﺃﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﻫﻲ ‪P ( x π 60) :‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌ ﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪x− µ ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫< ‪P ( x < 60) = p z‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪σ ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪60 − 80 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫< ‪= P z‬‬
‫)‪ = P ( z < −0.67 ) = F (−0.67‬‬
‫‪30 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻜﺸﻒ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ‬
‫‪P ( x < 60) = P ( z < −0.67 ) = 0.2514‬‬

‫‪ -4‬ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻨﻪ ‪ 0.975‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ‪ :‬ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ )‪ (x‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻨﻪ‬
‫‪ ، 0.975‬ﺑﻔﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﻫﻮ ) ‪ ، ( x1‬ﻓﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪131‬‬
‫‪x − 80 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪P ( x < x1 ) = p z < 1‬‬
‫‪ = 0.975‬‬
‫‪30 ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺸﻒ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻧﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ‪ 0.9750‬ﳒﺪﻫﺎ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﻟـﺼﻒ ‪، 1.9‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ .06‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻗ ﻴﻤﺔ ‪ ، z = 1.96‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪x1 − 80‬‬
‫‪, Then x1 = 30(1.96) + 80 = 138.8‬‬
‫‪30‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻫﻮ ‪ 138.8‬ﺃﻟﻒ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫= ‪1.96‬‬

‫‪132‬‬

‫ﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺐ ﺯﻭﺭﻭﺍ‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺮﻧﻴﺖ‬
‫‪WWW.RR4EE.NET‬‬