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PA Senate Survey Polling Memorandum 10-24-2012

PA Senate Survey Polling Memorandum 10-24-2012

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Wenzel Strategies is an opinion research company established in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio. It serves clients nationwide in politics, media, non-profit, corporate, and government. It conducted a survey of likely General Election voters statewide in Pennsylvania regarding the November election. The poll was conducted Oct. 22-23, 2012, and included 1000 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.07 percentage points.
Wenzel Strategies is an opinion research company established in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio. It serves clients nationwide in politics, media, non-profit, corporate, and government. It conducted a survey of likely General Election voters statewide in Pennsylvania regarding the November election. The poll was conducted Oct. 22-23, 2012, and included 1000 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.07 percentage points.

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Published by: Citizens United Political Victory Fund on Oct 24, 2012
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10/04/2014

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POLLING

MEMORANDUM

FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies RE: Survey of Likely Voters Statewide in Pennsylvania
Wenzel Strategies is an opinion research company established in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio. It serves clients nationwide in politics, media, non-profit, corporate, and government. It conducted a survey of likely General Election voters statewide in Pennsylvania regarding the November election. The poll was conducted Oct. 22-23, 2012, and included 1000 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.07 percentage points.

The Wenzel Strategies survey of likely General Election voters statewide in Pennsylvania shows incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger Tom Smith by a single point, 45% to 44%. The edge is statistically insignificant and means the race for this seat will go right down to the wire. Libertarian candidate Rayburn Douglas Smith wins 2% support, which could turn out to be important in this contest. Slightly more than four out of every five supporters for both Casey and Tom Smith said they were firm in their selection – meaning that nearly 20% of the electorate could change their minds before they vote. Neither Casey nor Tom Smith have locked down their own party’s support to a level normally seen as necessary to secure a win in a race like this. Casey has locked up just 78% of Democrats, and is losing 12% of Democratic support to Republican Tom Smith. But Smith wins just 75% support from Republicans and loses 14% of GOP support to Casey. The survey shows both men and women are evenly split between the two top candidates. While Casey leads in the east and western regions of the state, Tom Smith holds a double-digit lead in the more rural central region of the state. Both Casey and Tom Smith are struggling in efforts to build a favorable reputation among Pennsylvania voters. Casey is seen favorably by 46% of likely voters - a significant problem for an incumbent to be so far below 50% so close to an election. Another 42% said they had an unfavorable opinion of Casey, while 12% said they didn’t know enough about the freshman senator to have drawn a conclusion about him. Tom Smith is seen favorably by 43%, while 32% hold an unfavorable opinion of him and 26% didn’t know enough about him to have formed an opinion.
Q. If the election for U.S. Senator was today, and the candidates were Republican Tom Smith, Democrat Bob Casey, and Libertarian Rayburn Douglas Smith, for whom would you vote?
PA Senate Race Tom Smith 44.0% Bob Casey 45.2% R.D. Smith 2.2% Not sure 8.6%

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