AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE COMPILATION

Unconventional Indicators
If hemlines go up as we move into an election year, or if it’s a good year for Bordeaux wines, or if the National League wins the World Series, the Democratic candidate will likely win. When hemlines fall or stay the same, or the Bordeaux vintage is poor, or the American League wins, it’s good for the GOP. If the Dow Jones monthly average is higher in October than January of the election year or if the Redskins win their home game closest to Election Day, the incumbent party is expected to win. Since 1956, Weekly Reader has polled kids grades 1–12 on presidential candidates. Each presidential cycle, the students have correctly predicted the winner, with the exception of 1992.
Bordeaux Futures — — Poor Poor Good Poor Poor Good Poor Poor Good Poor Good Good Poor Good 9 / 15 World Series Cleveland (AL) NY Yankees (AL) NY Yankees (AL) Pittsburgh (NL) St. Louis (NL) Detroit (AL) Oakland (AL) Cincinnati (NL) Philadelphia (NL) Detroit (AL) Los Angeles (NL) Toronto (AL) NY Yankees (AL) NY Yankees (AL) Boston (AL) Philadelphia (NL) 11 / 16 Stock Market Up Down Up Down Up Up Up Up Up Down Up Up Up Down Down Down 9 / 16 Redskins Game Win Loss Win Loss Win Loss Win Loss Loss Win Win Loss Win Loss Loss Loss 15 / 16 Weekly Reader — — Rep. Dem. Dem. Rep. Rep. Dem. Rep. Rep. Rep. Rep. Dem. Rep. Rep. Dem. 13 / 14 Winning Party Dem. Rep. Rep. Dem. Dem. Rep. Rep. Dem. Rep. Rep. Rep. Dem. Dem. Rep. Rep. Dem.

Year 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Hemlines — No Change No Change Up Up Up Down Up Up Down Down Down Unchanged Down Up Down

Predictive record 9 / 15

Sources for the calculations above are available from AEI’s Political Corner.

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