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INTERESTED PARTIES PATRICK LANNE – PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES RECENT POLLING DATA OCTOBER 26, 2012
As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently completed a poll of 400 likely voters in New York’s 19th Congressional District. The party registration breakdown of the poll mirrors the district’s actual registration: 34% Republican and 31% Democrat with the remainder either unaffiliated or registered in other parties. Each county is represented based on its proportion of actual registration. The survey was conducted on October 2425, 2012 and has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.9%. The purpose of this memo is to review the key findings of the poll. KEY FINDINGS 1. Chris Gibson owns a double-digit lead. Congressman Gibson leads his Democratic opponent, Julian Schreibman, by ten points, 49%-39%. 2. Gibson leads with women. Gibson holds a nine-point lead over Schreibman among female voters, 44%-35% - even after the Democrats’ misleading “war on women” attacks. 3. Schreibman’s image is a net negative. Just 18% of voters have a “favorable” impression of Julian Schreibman while 21% of voters have an unfavorable impression. In the Albany media market, Schreibman’s image is nearly two-to-one negative, 17%-30%. The Bottom Line With 11 days left, Congressman Gibson continues to hold a double-digit lead over Julian Schreibman. With the clocking running out and his false attacks failing to gain traction, be on the lookout for a new wave of phony attack ads from Mr. Schreibman and his Washington allies.