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INTERESTED PARTIES PATRICK LANNE – PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

SUBJECT: RECENT POLLING DATA DATE: OCTOBER 26, 2012

As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently completed a poll of 400 likely voters in New York’s 19th Congressional District. The party registration breakdown of the poll mirrors the district’s actual registration: 34% Republican and 31% Democrat with the remainder either unaffiliated or registered in other parties. Each county is represented based on its proportion of actual registration. The survey was conducted on October 24-25, 2012 and has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.9%. The purpose of this memo is to review the key findings of the poll. KEY FINDINGS
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Chris Gibson owns a double-digit lead. Congressman Gibson leads his Democratic opponent, Julian Schreibman, by ten points, 49%-39%. Gibson leads with women. Gibson holds a nine-point lead over Schreibman among female voters, 44%-35% - even after the Democrats’ misleading “war on women” attacks. Schreibman’s image is a net negative. Just 18% of voters have a “favorable” impression of Julian Schreibman while 21% of voters have an unfavorable impression. In the Albany media market, Schreibman’s image is nearly two-to-one negative, 17%-30%.

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The Bottom Line With 11 days left, Congressman Gibson continues to hold a double-digit lead over Julian Schreibman. With the clocking running out and his false attacks failing to gain traction, be on the lookout for a new wave of phony attack ads from Mr. Schreibman and his Washington allies.