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Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies Date: October 30, 2012

Heinrich in the Drivers Seat One Week Out

With one week left until Election Day, Democrat Martin Heinrich leads Republican Heather Wilson 51 41 percent with Independent American Party candidate Jon Barrie pulling 6 percent. In a 2-way contest, Heinrich leads 52 43 percent. Heinrichs lead has been remarkably consistent for more than a month. In the 3-way match-up, Wilson has never surpassed 43 percent, while Heinrich has been above 50 percent in every survey we have conducted this month. Heinrich has held a net favorable rating in every survey we have conducted this entire election year, and Wilson has had a net negative rating in every survey. During the last few weeks, outside groups have poured more money into television ads attacking Heinrich, allowing Wilson and her allies to significantly outspend Heinrich on television, but it has not had any impact on the race. These results are based on a survey of 600 likely voters conducted October 27th-29th. Respondents were reached on landlines and cell phones. The sample is subject to a +/- 4.0 percentage point margin of error at the 95% confidence level. The party registration of the sample is 49 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican, and 15 percent other. The sample is 37 percent Hispanic. These figures illustrate that the sample is reflective of the likely electorate in the state.

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