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NM-Sen POS for Heather Wilson (Oct. 2012)

NM-Sen POS for Heather Wilson (Oct. 2012)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Oct 30, 2012
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12/04/2012

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MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: RE: DATE: INTERESTED PARTIES GLEN BOLGER KEY FINDINGS – STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 29, 2012

Methodology Public Opinion Strategies completed a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in New Mexico. The survey was conducted October 21-22, 2012 and included 100 cell phone interviews. The survey has a margin of error of +4.38% in 95 out of 100 cases. The sample was 48% Democratic and 36% Republican for party, and was 37% Hispanic and 52% white for ethnicity. Total minority percentage was 46%. Key Findings 1. The campaign is margin of error close. Heather Wilson leads Martin Heinrich for the first time in the campaign, by a 44%-43% margin, with 6% for Independent American Party candidate Jon Barrie. The remaining seven percent are undecided. Wilson leads 40%-24%-17% among Independents, and is polling a strong 30% of soft Democrats. 2. Barack Obama has a lead over Mitt Romney. Obama has a 47%-42% advantage in the Presidential race, with 6% for Gary Johnson. 3. These data are backed up by the early vote trends in New Mexico. In 2008, across key districts, the Democrats had a 22% advantage on early votes – nearly 100,000 ballots. In 2010, when Susana Martinez won the governorship with 53.3% of the vote, Democrats had a 6.6% advantage on early votes in the same battleground areas, equating to 21,000 ballots. Now, the Democrats have a 11% advantage on early ballots, an advantage of 25,000 ballots. Thus, the early ballot differential looks much closer to 2010 than 2008 – another reason this election and electorate is not 2008 redux.
Turning Questions Into Answers. 214 N. Fayette Street • Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 836-7655 • Fax (703) 836-8117 E-Mail: glen@pos.org • www.pos.org

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