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Memo PNAOhio 102912

Memo PNAOhio 102912

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Published by: ProjectNewAmerica on Oct 30, 2012
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Interested Parties Project New America and USAction October 30, 2012 New Statewide Poll in Ohio Shows President Obama up 3 Over Mitt Romney

A statewide telephone survey of 500 likely voters in Ohio was conducted by Grove Insight October 28-29 using professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

President Obama Leads in Ohio

Presidential Vote – Ohio

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by three points Ohio (48% to 45%). The gap in strong support is a bit wider (+4), with 44% firmly in the President’s camp and 40% solidly behind Romney. Women provide the lead for Obama (52% to 43%) while the race is close among men (45% to 48%). The gap is even wider among blue-collar, noncollege women (54% to 42%). While not exactly news, it is worth reporting that the President has locked the African American vote (94% to 4%).

80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

+3 48% 45%



Obama’s lead can be explained by his advantage on three important fronts: a champion of the middle class, steady judgment and for having a plan to move the country forward. By a margin of 8 points, Obama is seen as more likely than Romney to build a middle class economy. He is also credited for having “the steadiness and judgment to be Commander-in-Chief.” In addition, voters are slightly more likely to see Obama as the candidate with a concrete plan by four points. And, by a slight three percentage point edge, Romney is seen as someone who is “too willing to say or do anything to get elected.”

Who does it better describe – Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? [Names rotated] Obama Romney

Will work to re-build the middle class economy Has the steadiness and judgment to be Commander-in-Chief Has a concrete plan to move our country forward Too willing to say or do anything to get elected

48 48 45 37

40 40 41 40


Demographic comparisons between this Grove Insight poll, the voterfile and other recent public surveys conducted in Ohio
Grove Insight Poll October 28-29 The actual voter file Gravis Marketing October 27 PPP Poll October 26-28

Voters under age 30 Voters age 30-49 Voters over age 50 White voters African American Voters Other Women Men Self ID’d Republican Self ID’d independent Self ID’d Democrat

11 32 56 84 12 5 52 48 34 25 41

19 35 47 84 13 3 53 47 NA NA NA

18 28 54 76 12 12 53 47 32 28 40

12 NA NA 83 12 5 54 46 35 21 43

  www.projectnewamerica.com @PNAmerica www.usaction.org @USAction


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