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Memo PNA FL 110112

Memo PNA FL 110112

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Published by: ProjectNewAmerica on Nov 01, 2012
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10/27/2014

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Interested Parties Project New America and USAction November 1, 2012 New Florida Poll Shows President Obama Up by One Point Over Romney

A statewide telephone survey of 600 likely voters in Florida was conducted by Grove Insight October 28-29 using professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

Close race in Florida
• Barack Obama is ahead by one percentage point (48% to 47%). One key reason the race is tight here is because the gender gap is narrow. Obama has just a three-point lead with women (49% to 46%) and trails Romney by one with men (46% to 47%). Though the President has a big lead with Independent women (51% to 42%), the race is very close among Independent men, who give a slight edge to Obama (43% to 41%). A lot of these voters are sitting on the fence right now (13% of Independent men are undecided).

Presidential Vote – Florida

80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

+1 48% 47%

1%
Obama 44% Lean Obama 4 % Other

5%
Undecided

Romney 42% Obama’s lead extends beyond just the youngest voters Lean Romney 5 % – he’s ahead of Romney among every age group from 18 to 60 – including 50-somethings. However, while the under 50 crowd (55% to 40%) provides Obama with his lead, those over age 50 support Romney (42% to 53%).

Registered Democrats (86%) and Republicans (88%) are similarly consolidated around their party’s nominee. The game is among Independents, where Obama holds a six point lead (47% to 41%). While close, Obama has a lead on key metrics driving this race – possessing the steadiness and judgment to be Commander-in-Chief (+5 over Romney), being capable of rebuilding a middle class economy (+5) and having a concrete plan to move the country forward (+5). Romney also seems to have more of an honesty problem which may make it harder to drive home a message in the closing days. By five points, Florida voters say it is Romney who is better described by the phrase, “You can’t really believe what he says.”
Who does it better describe – Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? [Names rotated] Obama Romney

Has the steadiness and judgment to be Commander-in-Chief Will work to re-build the middle class economy Has a concrete plan to move our country forward You can’t really believe what he says

48 47 46 38

43 42 41 43

   

Now I’m going to read you some proposals. For each one, please tell me whether you favor or oppose that proposal. Favor Oppose

Ending traditional Medicare Ending tax breaks for businesses that ship American jobs overseas and replacing them with tax incentives to create jobs in the U.S. Cutting Social Security benefits Creating jobs by investing in repair of roads, bridges, and schools

16 71 8 83

75 20 86 9

Demographic comparisons between this Grove Insight poll, the voterfile and other recent public surveys conducted in Florida
Grove Insight Poll October 29-30 The actual voter file Gravis October 30, 2012 PPP Poll October 26-28

Voters under age 30 Voters age 30-49 Voters over age 50

13% 33% 52%

18% 31% 51%

17% 28% 34% (50-64) 20% (65+)

14% 24% (30-45) 37% (46-65) 25% (65+) 64% 14% 14% 8% 55% 45% NA NA NA 38% 19% 43%

White voters Hispanic/Latino African American Other Women Men Reg. Republican Reg. NAV/Ind/Other Reg. Democrat Self ID’d Republican Self ID’d independent Self ID’d Democrat  

67% 16% 15% 1% 53% 47% 39% 21% 40% 38% 25% 36%

69% 14% 15% 2% 55% 45% 36% 24% 40% NA NA NA

63% 20% 13% 4% 54% 46% NA NA NA 35% 22% 43%

www.projectnewamerica.com @PNAmerica

www.usaction.org @USAction

   

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