TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Project New America and USAction

DATE: November 2, 2012

RE: New Statewide Poll in Michigan Shows President Obama up by Seven Points

A statewide telephone survey of 500 likely voters in Michigan was conducted by Grove Insight October 31
to November 1

using professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is
plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

Michigan voters see Obama, not Romney, as the
"Car Guy"
x Barack Obama is currently ahead of Mitt Romney by
seven percentage points (48% to 41%). One key
reason for the President's big lead is because Michigan
voters are much more inclined to believe he "will be
better for the auto industry¨ By nearly 20 points, voters
believe Obama will be better for one of the state's most
important economic sectors than Romney (53%
Obama, 34% Romney). In the head-to-head matchup,
Obama leads 84% to 9% among those who believe the
President "will be better for the auto industry.¨
x Connected to this, the President also has considerably
better numbers than Romney for working "to re-build
the middle class economy¨ (50% to 38%), indicating
faith in Obama's ability to recover and rebuild an
economy that extends well beyond the automotive sector.
x The President also has a double-digit lead in the early vote (49% to 39% among already voted).
x There are two other trends of significance. While the President has a big lead with women (50% to 39%) he also
has a slight edge among men (46% to 44%). And while Obama's lead among younger voters is a given (51% to
39%), he is also up a bit over Romney among voters over age 50 (46% to 43%).
x Another challenge for Romney is that voters are not terribly willing to take his message at face value. Nearly half
(45%) say, "you can't really believe what he says,¨ is more descriptive of Romney than Obama.

Who does it better describe ± Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?
[Names rotated]
Obama Romney
Will be better for the auto industry
53 34
Will work to re-build the middle class economy
50 38
Has a concrete plan to move our country forward
42 38
You can't really believe what he says 35 45
Presidential Vote ± Michigan
Romney 39%
Lean Romney 2%
Obama 45%
Lean Obama 3%
Undecided Other

Demographic comparisons between this Grove Insight poll, the voterfile
and other recent public surveys conducted in Michigan

Grove Insight Poll
October 31 to
November 1
The actual
voter file
PPP Poll
October 30-31
Gravis Marketing
October 5-8
Voters under age 50 46% 53%
(18 ÷ 45)
Voters over age 50 53% 47%
(46 ÷ 65+)

White voters 82% 81% 82% 83%
African American Voters 10% 15% 12% 11%
Other 8% 4% 6% 6%

Women 52% 53% 55% 53%
Men 48% 47% 45% 47%

SeIf ID'd RepubIican 28% NA 33% 31%
SeIf ID'd Independent 35% NA 24% 32%
SeIf ID'd Democrat 35% NA 43% 37%
@PNAmerica @USAction

you favor or oppose that proposal.
Favor Oppose
Ending traditional Medicare 12 77
Ending tax breaks for businesses that ship American jobs overseas and
replacing them with tax incentives to create jobs in the U.S.
69 20
Cutting Social Security benefits 8 85
Creating jobs by investing in repair of roads, bridges, and schools
78 15

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