CONTACT: Michael Bloomfield (202-625-0370) To: From: Re: Date: Interested Parties The Mellman Group, Inc.

Bullock Leads The Race To Become Montana’s Next Governor November 2, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of the likely November 2012 electorate in Montana using a registration-based sample including cell phones and landlines. Eight hundred (800) telephone interviews were conducted October 29-31, 2012. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/-3.5% at a 95% level of confidence and higher for subgroups.

With less than a week to go, Democrat Steve Bullock is well-positioned to become the next Governor of Montana. Bullock leads his Republican opponent Rick Hill by seven points (47%-40%). Libertarian Ron Vandevender secures 3% of the vote. Bullock’s lead is particularly impressive since he has built it despite the President’s performance at the top of the ticket, where Governor Romney leads President Obama by eight points (41%-49%). Importantly, while the President is losing independents by a 12-point margin (33%45%), Bullock is winning them by 10-points (45%-35%). Bullock also leads among men (+1) and women (+12). He runs ahead with voters over 50 years old (+3) and is even further in front with those under 50 (+11).

Bullock Leads The Governor’s Race
Gubernatorial Vote







Bullock Hill Vandevender




refused/DK In line with the difference in the vote across age groups, there is also a notable difference based on cell phone usage. Among those contacted on land lines Bullock has a 2-point lead, but among those contacted by cell phones Bullock leads by 21 points.


Moreover, Bullock has banked a 20-point lead (51%-31%) among early voters. With (44%) having already voted early, Bullock already has many of the votes he needs to win. Hill will have to depend on the remaining 56% who have not voted -- and the dwindling number of undecideds (4%) – to surmount Bullock's lead. To the extent that legal problems with Hill’s contributions make it harder for him to get on the air, the harder it will be for him to catch-up. With only days to go, Bullock is in position to overcome the state’s Republican tilt and win the race to be the next Governor of Montana.

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