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2012 Election Briefing Book_FINAL R2

2012 Election Briefing Book_FINAL R2

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Published by Peggy Satterfield

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Published by: Peggy Satterfield on Nov 04, 2012
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11/05/2012

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77

HOUSE OVERVIEW

After Republicans took back control of the U.S. House
in 2010 by winning a modern-era record 63 seats,
Democrats are hoping to cut into that majority.
Currently, Republicans hold a 240-190 majority (five
House seats are vacant). Democrats need a net-gain
of 25 seats to win control of the chamber.
Analysts, however, predict that is unlikely to happen.
Democrats are instead favored to pick up a handful
of seats, anywhere from mid-single digits to low-
teens on a very good day. Democrats are on offense in more seats than Republicans, but
Republicans are likely to pick off some Democratic seats as well, making the number of seats
Democrats have to win closer to 35 to 40.
Every 10 years, states redraw their congressional-seat boundaries. That has meant some
incumbent-versus-incumbent races, but it hasn’t impacted the playing field very much in one
partisan direction or another. At the outset of redistricting, it was thought that Republicans could
gain an advantage, but it turned out that Democrats wound up with a very slight one, perhaps
helping a handful of their seats.
By the numbers: Current breakdown: 240 R, 190 D, 5 vacancies (2R, 3D)
430 members up for re-election (all seats are up every two years but five House seats are
currently vacant)
218 needed for control
25 is the net number of seats Democrats need to net to take back the House

There are 25 Republican-held seats
rated toss up or worse, while there
are just 16 seats in the same position
for Democrats.

GOP seats in danger (25)

DIST.

INCUMBENT

COOK RATING

AZ-01

NEW SEAT

TOSS UP

CA-07

Lungren

TOSS UP

CA-10

Denham

TOSS UP

CA-26

OPEN

TOSS UP

CA-36

Bono Mack

TOSS UP

CA-52

Bilbray

TOSS UP

CO-06

Coffman

TOSS UP

FL-18

West

TOSS UP

FL-26

Rivera

TOSS UP

IL-08

Walsh

LIKELY D

IL-10

Dold

LEAN D

IL-11

Biggert

LEAN D

IL-13

OPEN

TOSS UP

IL-17

Schilling

TOSS UP

MD-06 Bartlett

LIKELY D

MI-01

Benishek

TOSS UP

MN-08 Cravaack

TOSS UP

NH-01

Guinta

TOSS UP

NH-02

Bass

LEAN D

NV-03

Heck

TOSS UP

NY-18

Hayworth

TOSS UP

NY-19

Gibson

TOSS UP

NY-24

Buerkle

LEAN D

OH-16

MERGED

TOSS UP

TX-23

Canseco

TOSS UP

Dem seats in danger (16)

DIST.

INCUMBENT

COOK RATING

AR-04

OPEN

LIKELY R

GA-12

Barrow

TOSS UP

IA-03

MERGED

LEAN R

IL-12

OPEN

TOSS UP

IN-02

OPEN

LIKELY R

KY-06

Chandler

TOSS UP

MA-06 Tierney

LEAN R

NC-07

McIntyre

TOSS UP

NC-08

Kissell

LIKELY R

NC-11

OPEN

LIKELY R

NC-13

OPEN

LIKELY R

NV-05

NEW SEAT

TOSS UP

NY-27

Hochul

TOSS UP

OK-02

OPEN

LIKELY R

PA-12

Critz

TOSS UP

UT-04

Matheson

TOSS UP

78

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