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Published by Bummelsch
Ph.D.-thesis on wind power integration in power systems, published by Bart Ummels (general summary on p. V).
Ph.D.-thesis on wind power integration in power systems, published by Bart Ummels (general summary on p. V).

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Published by: Bummelsch on Jan 24, 2009
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PowrSym3 applies three execution time horizons: annually or monthly, weekly and an hourly
or different short-term operational time step. The annual horizon is mainly used for reliability
calculation and maintenance scheduling, the weekly for the simulation of outages and the
scheduling of hydro and energy storage units, and the hourly for the actual simulation of unit

Annual Simulation Horizon

Before the start of each simulation, the model reads input files for system load, load in neigh-
bouring areas, local heat demands, wind power data and the data describing the power system
itself (input and output data are discussed in more detail in Section 3.3.4). The annual simu-
lation horizon comprises the scheduling of maintenance and the selection of expansion units,
which is not applicable here. The reliability model computes the annual loss of load prob-
ability (LOLP) in hours per year using the cumulant method [160]. After calculation of the
LOLP, load carrying ability and capacity surplus/deficit are calculated relative to a specified
reliability index. This index may then be used for an annual optimisation of the maintenance
schedules, as discussed in Section 3.3.1. The flow diagram is shown in Fig. 3.1.

Weekly Optimisation

The first step in the weekly execution is the determination of weekly random outage draws.
The outage model selects the hourly unit outage states using a random number generator
for a specified number of iterations (i.e. Monte Carlo draws). Each iteration is saved and
used as input for a weekly simulation. PowrSym3 reports the expected unit availability for
individual iterations and across all iterations. The unit commitment is optimised initially by
heuristics basedontheloadpredictionandwindpowerforecastandsubsequentlybydynamic
Fig. 3.2 provides an overview of optimisation steps involved in the weekly optimisation pro-
cess. First, hydro power stations are scheduled using a price leveling algorithm based on their


Unit Commitment and Economical Despatch Model

Write Annual Reports

Next Week

Next Draw

Read Control File



Read Yearly Input Files




Annual Reliability

Expansion Units

Determine Annual
Maintenance Schedule

Write Annual LOLP Report

by Week?

Select Monte Carlo
Outage Draws

more Draws?

Write Output Reports



Year Complete


Figure 3.1: PowrSym3 annual execution flow diagram [131].

3.3 Simulation Model




DP Commit

Write Output Reports

Schedule Hydro
for Week by Hours

Initially Simulate
Thermal Units

Energy Storage

Thermal Units

Generate Cases
Dynamic Programming

For Each
DP Case?

Thermal Units


Thermal Units

Create Decremental Cost Curves


Figure 3.2: PowrSym3 weekly simulation flow diagram [131].


Unit Commitment and Economical Despatch Model






Predict Hourly
Capacity Required

By Hour?


Set Commitment and
Despatch to Maximum

Compute Station
Decremental Costs

Compute Station
De-Commit Costs

Despatch Heat and
Adjust Costs for Heat

Select Area
with Highest Costs

Reduce Generation
in Selected Area


Figure 3.3: PowrSym3 thermal simulation hourly sequential method flow diagram [131].

3.3 Simulation Model


weekly energy constraint, load prediction and wind power forecast. The hydro schedules are
subject to hourly minimum and maximum generation levels and ramp rate limitations. The
model then uses local heat demands, system load, wind power and wind power forecasts for
the scheduling of the thermal generation units, which are also subject to technical constraints.
Based on the operational cost estimates obtained here, energy storage is scheduled such that
total operating cost over the week are minimised. After this, the simulation results generated
by the heuristics may be optimised further using dynamic programming, which goes through
the same steps as the heuristics. Finally, the simulation results are saved as formatted output

Short-Term Optimisation

Unit operation is simulated on an hourly or another short time-step (i.e. 15 min. in this
thesis) while preserving the chronology (Fig. 3.3). Pre-scheduled units, such as industrial
or distributed generation, may be included using a fixed operating schedule for such units.
The starting condition of the short-term simulation is defined by the output of the weekly
simulationandthegenerationunits’statesattheendofthepreviousweek, takingintoaccount
outages and minimum up- and downtimes. The heuristic optimisation process is done using
the Equal Incremental Cost Method [131], which comprises the following steps:

1) Set all available generation units at maximum power level, taking into account operating

2) Calculate decremental cost arrays for each short-term time step
3) Find the largest unit decremental cost
4) De-commit or ramp down most expensive unit(s)

The construction of the decremental cost arrays takes into account system load, heat despatch
and de-commitment cost while satisfying minimum up- and downtimes and ramp rates. The
cost of generating heat by CHP units are taken into account in the calculations of the marginal
cost of these units. In case the system comprises different areas, decremental cost arrays are
constructed for each area taking into account trans-area transmission constraints (i.e. Net
Transfer Capacity, NTC, between areas), if applicable. After completion of the decrement
procedure, system cost are calculated and these steps are repeated until load, heat demand
and reserve requirements are balanced. The repetitive process provides marginal cost for all
areas and all units. It can be noted that the must-run status of many base-load units in the
Dutch system(coal, industrial CHP) reduce the complexity of unit commitment optimisation.

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