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Ummels_PhDThesis

Ummels_PhDThesis

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Published by Bummelsch
Ph.D.-thesis on wind power integration in power systems, published by Bart Ummels (general summary on p. V).
Ph.D.-thesis on wind power integration in power systems, published by Bart Ummels (general summary on p. V).

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Published by: Bummelsch on Jan 24, 2009
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05/10/2014

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The base simulation variants consider seven levels for wind power capacity installed in the
Netherlands, four designs of international markets and three wind power forecast methods.
The base variants will be used to quantify the technical, economic and environmental impacts
of wind power. For all base variants, it is assumed that wind power is integrated into the
system by taking into account wind power in the optimisation of the UC–ED of conventional
generation capacity. In case no international exchange market is available, only the Dutch
conventional generation units are used.

4.4 System Simulations

77

Wind Power Levels

All base simulations will be carried out for six wind power penetration levels, as developed
in Chapter 2 (2–12 GW), and for a 0 MW wind power variant to be used as a reference.

International Exchange

International exchange is modeled and simulated for four market designs:

No international exchange
International market gate closure time day ahead
International market gate closure time 3 h. ahead
International market gate closure time 1 h. ahead
The base-case for this research is the Netherlands seen as an isolated power system. Interna-
tional exchange with Belgium, France, Germany, Norway and Great Britain is assumed to be
zero at all times. This variant serves as a reference to consider the integration of wind power
in the Dutch power system using the technical capacities available in the Netherlands only.
The other market designs all comprise international exchange possibilities between the
Netherlands and its neighbours, but using different gate closure times. This means that the
imports and exports of the Netherlands are optimised using the wind power forecast availa-
ble at market gate closure. After market gate closure, the international exchange schedules
become fixed and are executed as scheduled. For the day ahead (12–36 h.) ahead market clo-
sure, wind power forecast errors are significant (Fig. 2.14). This will result in a sub-optimal
scheduling of imports and exports from a wind power integration point of view. Forecast
errors will have decreased by about 50% if market gate closure is delayed up to 3 h. ahead of
operation, and no forecast errors are present for the market design with near real-time opera-
tion (1 h. ahead), which allows an optimal scheduling of international exchange considering
wind power.

Wind Power Forecasts

The following wind power forecasts are considered as a base-case variants:

0 MW wind power forecast (fuel saver approach [55])
Best available forecast
Perfect forecast
For the 0 MW wind power forecast, the UC–ED is optimised without incorporating wind
power capacity in the planning stage, although actual wind power output is taken into ac-
count in the operational stage. This forecast leads to an over-commitment of conventional
generating capacity and serves as a worst-case planning situation. The best available forecast
comprises an hourly update of the wind power forecast (’rolling forecast’), based on updated
wind power forecasts, and a subsequent recalculation of the UC–ED taking these into ac-
count. For a perfect forecast, the actual wind power levels are exactly known in all stages of
the UC–ED.

It is important to note that that for all wind power forecasts, the real-time wind power
output level is assumed to be exactly known and used as an input for economic despatch in
the following hours. Furthermore, it is assumed that UC–ED is continuously optimised up
until the hour of operation (1 h. ahead). This re-calculation of the UC–ED is in fact much

78 Impacts of Wind Power on Unit Commitment and Economic Despatch

more frequent that presently applied by Dutch PRPs, who usually do this 2–4 times a day. It
can also be noted that the central optimisation of the UC–ED such as applied in this research,
does not take into account the behaviour of individual market parties or generation clusters
on the electricity market (i.e. fuel contracts, individual reserve power considerations). The
availability of a better wind power forecast may be very beneficial for the market operating
strategy of traders and lead to significant revenues. Here, only the opportunities of wind
power forecasts for the maximisation of the system integration of wind power are considered.

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