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Reuters ranked #1 in poll accuracy

Reuters ranked #1 in poll accuracy

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Polling accuracy
Polling accuracy

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Published by: anthony_rosa_16 on Nov 08, 2012
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12/04/2012

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FROM THE DIRECTOR CENTER FOR ELECTORAL POLITICS AND DEMOCRACY Poll Accuracy in the 2012 Presidential Election

—Initial Report, November 7, 2012 (UPDATED 3:30PM)— Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D. Department of Political Science, Fordham University For inquiries: cpanagopoulos@fordham.edu or (917) 405-9069 For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, pre-election polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 1.07 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.13 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 2.2-point Obama margin in the national popular vote (Obama 50.3% versus Romney 48.1%). Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess predictive accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from these 28 polling organizations. Most (22) polls overestimated Romney support, while six (6) overestimated Obama strength (indicated with a * below), but none of the 28 national preelection polls I examined had a significant partisan bias. The following list ranks the 28 organizations by the predictive accuracy of their final, national pre-election estimates (as reported on pollster.com). 1. Ipsos/Reuters 2. YouGov 3. PPP (D) 3. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP 4. Angus-Reid* 5. ABC/WP* 6. Pew Research* 6. Hartford Courant/UConn* 7. Purple Strategies 8. NBC/WSJ 8. CBS/NYT 8. YouGov/Economist 9. UPI/CVOTER 10. IBD/TIPP 11. Democracy Corps (D)* 12. CNN/ORC 12. Monmouth/SurveyUSA 12. Politico/GWU/Battleground 12. FOX News 12. Washington Times/JZ Analytics 12. Newsmax/JZ Analytics 12. American Research Group 12. Gravis Marketing 13. National Journal* 14. Rasmussen 14. Gallup 15. NPR 16. AP/GfK

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