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012609 NY SEN

012609 NY SEN

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Published by Elizabeth Benjamin
Q poll on Gillibrand, Paterson, Kennedy
Q poll on Gillibrand, Paterson, Kennedy

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Published by: Elizabeth Benjamin on Jan 26, 2009
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06/17/2009

Maurice Carroll, Director Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Rubenstein Associates, Inc.

, Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: JANUARY 26, 2009

MORE VOTERS BLAME KENNEDY FOR FAILED SENATE BID, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NEW YORK STATE POLL FINDS; REPUBLICANS BACK GILLEBRAND MORE THAN DEMOCRATS
Caroline Kennedy and her aides are more to blame than Gov. David Paterson and his team for the controversy surrounding her failed bid for New York’s U.S. Senate seat, voters say 49 – 15 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 12 percent blame both camps, while 24 percent are undecided. New York State voters approve 46 – 30 percent, with 24 percent undecided, of Gov. Paterson’s selection of Albany area U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillebrand for the Senate seat, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men approve 48 – 29 percent while women approve 44 – 31 percent. Republicans back the selection 56 – 27 percent, a wider margin than the 41 – 35 percent among Democrats. Independent voters back her 49 – 21 percent. Upstate voters back the choice 55 – 25 percent, while suburban voters approve 35 – 32 percent and New York City voters approve 41 – 34 percent. By a 25 – 10 percent margin, New York State voters have a favorable opinion of Gillebrand, but 63 percent say they don’t know enough about her to make a decision. Her favorability upstate is 34 – 8 percent with 58 percent who don’t know enough about her to decide. “Blame for dithering over the choice of a U.S. Senator falls mostly on Caroline Kennedy. But there’s an inside-baseball element in this – a lot of New Yorkers say they simply don’t know who’s at fault,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Kirsten who? Senator-to-be Kirsten Gillebrand is smart to instantly do let’s-getacquainted visits with black and Hispanic leaders. New Yorkers aren’t unfriendly, but two-thirds of them don’t know much about her.” “And as expected, the new Senator is more popular upstate than downstate.” -more 

Quinnipiac University Poll/January 26, 2009 – page 2
While more New York State voters approve of Paterson’s selection of Gillebrand, they split on their judgment of how he selected a new Senator, with 44 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving. Republicans approve 52 – 39 percent, while Democrats split 42 – 43 percent. Paterson’s overall approval stands at 50 – 30 percent, down from 53 – 25 percent in a January 15 Quinnipiac University poll. Paterson’s approval among Republican voters is up, from 41 – 38 percent to 45 – 39 percent, while approval among Democrats is down from 62 – 18 percent to 54 – 24 percent. “New Yorkers give Paterson a split decision on how he handled the Senate selection, despite the critical news coverage. He hurt himself among Democrats, while Republicans are liking him a little better these days,” Carroll said. Because of Gillebrand’s pro-gun position and her backing by the National Rifle Assn., 36 percent of New York State voters, including 50 percent of Democrats, are less likely to vote for her when she runs for election next year, while 17 percent are more likely to vote for her. Another 41 percent say this doesn’t make a difference. “In the Congressional district she’s represented, NRA support is a plus. Not state-wide,” Carroll said. From January 23 – 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,047 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed – http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

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1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 50% 30 20 Rep 45% 39 15 Dem 54% 24 22 Ind 53% 28 19 Men 50% 32 18 Sub 51% 29 20 Wom 50% 29 21

UpState..... Urban Othr Approve Disapprove DK/NA 52% 31 17 43% 36 21

UpState Total NYC 45% 35 20 55% 26 19

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? Jan 26 2009 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 50 30 20 Jan 15 2009 53 25 22 Dec 24 2008 53 29 18 Aug 6 2008 64 14 22 Jun 12 2008 56 17 27 Apr 17 2008 50 10 39

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Paterson handled the process of selecting a new United States senator to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 44% 42 14 Rep 52% 39 9 Dem 42% 43 15 Ind 43% 43 13 Men 48% 40 12 Sub 31% 53 15 Wom 41% 44 15

UpState..... Urban Othr Approve Disapprove DK/NA 52% 31 17 48% 38 15

UpState Total NYC 49% 36 15 47% 42 11

3. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 46% 30 24 Rep 56% 27 17 Dem 41% 35 24 Ind 49% 21 30 Men 48% 29 23 Sub 35% 32 33 Wom 44% 31 25

UpState..... Urban Othr Approve Disapprove DK/NA 61% 25 14 54% 25 21

UpState Total NYC 55% 25 20 41% 34 25

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4. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 25% 10 63 1 Rep 30% 7 63 Dem 22% 11 66 1 Ind 28% 10 61 Men 32% 10 57 1 Sub 19% 13 68 1 Wom 20% 11 68 1

UpState..... Urban Othr Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 34% 6 60 34% 8 57 1

UpState Total NYC 34% 8 58 1 19% 13 67 1

5. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 48% 25 24 3 Rep 36% 36 25 2 Dem 57% 19 22 2 Ind 44% 24 27 5 Men 49% 26 23 2 Sub 48% 25 25 3 Wom 47% 24 25 3

UpState..... Urban Othr Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 49% 20 27 3 44% 29 25 3

UpState Total NYC 45% 27 25 3 52% 23 22 3

TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable, or haven’t you heard enough about him? Jan 26 2009 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 48 25 24 3 Mar 20 2008 46 3 51 -

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6. Who do you blame for the controversy surrounding Caroline Kennedy's failed senate bid - Governor Paterson and his aides or Caroline Kennedy and her aides? Tot Paterson and aides Kennedy and aides BOTH (VOL) DK/NA 15% 49 12 24 Rep 11% 63 11 16 Dem 18% 42 11 30 Ind 16% 54 11 20 Men 16% 52 13 20 Sub 13% 49 13 24 Wom 14% 47 11 28

UpState..... Urban Othr Paterson and aides Kennedy and aides BOTH (VOL) DK/NA 12% 53 15 20 13% 45 11 30

UpState Total NYC 13% 47 12 28 18% 52 10 20

7. Does the fact that Kirsten Gillibrand is against gun control and that she is supported by the National Rifle Association make you more likely to vote for her for senator in 2010, less likely to vote for her, or doesn't it make a difference? Tot More likely Less likely Doesn't make diff DK/NA 17% 36 41 6 Rep 30% 16 51 3 Dem 7% 50 34 8 Ind 22% 24 49 4 Men 23% 32 43 2 Sub 15% 40 41 4 Wom 13% 38 40 9

UpState..... Urban Othr More likely Less likely Doesn't make diff DK/NA 16% 26 55 3 24% 26 45 5

UpState Total NYC 22% 26 47 5 12% 44 35 8

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