What are gas turbines of the future?

ASME Copenhagen June 2012

1 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

The world market

Consumption of electricity per country in kWh 2006

Source: Wikipedia
2 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: Wikipedia

Agenda

Current and future developments of electricity generation in Europe Technological requirements Economic efficiency What is the role of gas turbines in the development process?

3 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

Agenda

Current and future developments of electricity generation in Europe Technological requirements Economic efficency What is the tole of gasturbines in the development process?

4 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

The European market

5 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: google

Europe is supposed to reach climate neutrality until 2050

CO2 reduction
0%
CO2-Reduktion um

20 %

EU-target: Reduction of emissions by 20% until 2020

50 %
Vattenfall-target1: Reduction of specific emissions by 50% until 2030 Vattenfall-target 2: Climate neutral until 2050

90 % 1990
Ausgangszeitpunkt EU & Kyoto

2010

2030

2050

today!
6 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 6 Source: VE

That will cause an immense growth of renewables in the near future

7 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: Uni Rostock

The power-heat-cogeneration is -like renewables- subject to aid and therefore subject to regulations

8 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: KWK-Basisdaten 2007: FfE Mnchen

Is the future demand of new production capacities a possible market for GT?

More then 3x load peak (effectiveness of storage needs to be considered on top)

Peak load 2010 ~80 GW

Demand for new capacities: tradictional power plants and storage capacity

Peal load 2050???

9 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: KWK-Basisdaten 2007: FfE Mnchen

Conclusion: We need more storage capacity

The goal:
Climate neutral electricity generation until 2050

Necessary requirement:
Additional storage technologies with major capacities

10 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

Agenda

Current and future developments of electricity generation in Europe Technological requirements Economic efficiency What is the role of gas turbines in the development process?

11 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

Which storages are currently considered?

Clear option for CCGT Plants and open cycle GT

12 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: VDI

All this concludes in a paradigm change A high share of renewables means 1. Electricity will be the primary energy 2. Gas will be the secondary energy

13 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

The methanation process to store excess electricity

14 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

Electricity and gas systems can be connected via methanation sites

15 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: DVG und VNG

The fluctuating infeed of renewabels (e.g. wind)

16 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: TU Braunschweig

 means that conventional energy sources need to close the gap between market demand and renewables
Marktnachfrage erneuerbare Energie +/- konventionelle Energiequelle = 0

+/Conventional Power Plants & Storages

+/-

17 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: Uni Rostock

There are several ways to solve the problem

Hours

Days

18 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: Uni Rostock

Conclusion: Conventional sites will face a dramatic change in requirements

Situation:
The power only market will radically change due to the growth of renewables

Consequence:
Conventional sites have to meet much higher requirements to ensure a stable electricty supply

19 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

A paradigm change for conventional sites will come

Secure systemstability at all times

Substitution power and controlling power Load-dependent to renewables High pace of load change Frequent starting and shutdown Voltage stability Securing the short circuit current

20 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

Agenda

Current and future developments of electricity generation in Europe Technological requirements Economic efficiency What is the role of gas turbines in the development process?

21 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

The full cost for different types of power stations

Costs k per MW

Full cost of different power stations per year

1000 100 900 800 80 700 600 60 500 40 400 300 200 100
The area below the lines corresponds to the full cost per year
Gas-Turbines (GT) Gas and Steam Coal

The increase of the lines corresponds to the variable costs (DB1)

The envelope of failure is the optimal power procurement

h (year)

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000 10000

22 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

 derive the optimal production

Costs k per MW

Full cost of different power stations per year

1000 100 900 800 80 700 600 60 500 40 400 300 200 100
h (year)
Gas-Turbines (GT) Gas and Steam Coal

The increase of the lines corresponds to the variable costs (DB1)

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000 10000

23 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

The yearly residual peak decreases due to the growth of renewables what about coal?
Peak load Base load

Keine Daseinsberechtigung fr Kohle in 2050

24 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012 Source: teilweise Uni Rostock

Agenda

Current and future developments of electricity generation in Europe Technological requirements Economic efficiency What is the role of gas turbines in the development process?

25 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

The role of gas turbines in this process of change

Gas turbines will have a leading role at the end of this changing process of energy supplies The role is very dependent on new/further developments of storage technologies The role will radically change over time The demand for GT-output will decrease at first (Merit-Order) In the medium term the demand for GT output will considerably grow in line with the development of power to gas as part of a renewable storage The gas turbine will play a major role for future supply of the still needed residual peak in the future
26 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

How will the role of GT change over time?

In Germany, the use of electricity generation sites is optimised via variable costs

Current power demand minimum Power demand maximum

2022

Renewables + KWK

27 | Systemstabilitt | Ernst Reichstein | Mrz 2012 Quelle: VE

Future requirements
The controllability (in negative or positive direction) of power plants needs to be granted
Efficient and preserving operations during big load ranges Execution of frequent and quick load changes Parking the power plant under least possible output to network operations during light load and strong winds Frequent starts and shut downs of power plants

Adjustable short supply via continuous voltage control in power plants to secure correct voltage at all times Supply of short-circuit current in case of fault to secure the functioning of distance protection Supply of rotating centrifugal mass in grid to keep frequency stability No disconnection from power plants due to concept-wise resolved faults. The enhancements of concepts for future gas turbines and gas & steam sites is absolutely necessary
28 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

What should a gas turbine look like?

?
Very simple: A gas turbine needs to meet the described requirements and additionally the requirements of the not yet known challenges of the future At the same time, the gas turbine needs to be highly efficient, easy to operate, and cheap when purchased (Voice of the Customer)

29 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

The system of energy supply is like a mobile: sensitive for imbalanced changes

30 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012

Balancing the power

Thank you for your attention

31 | Systemstability | Ernst Reichstein | March 2012