Professional Documents
Culture Documents
brief
introduction
to
PEAK
Complied by KH Tang
Part 1
An Invitation
to
ask some
Important Questions….
What is the GROWTH RATE of population in this planet?
Or 1.5 Singapore
What is the World Population?
What are the necessary conditions to make the sharp raise in this curve?
Do we have resources to sustain the continuous growth?
• Grain Production?
Do we have resources to sustain the continuous growth?
• Grain Production?
• Meat Production?
Do we have resources to sustain the continuous growth?
• Grain Production?
• Meat Production?
• Fresh Water?
Do we have resources to sustain the continuous growth?
• Grain Production?
• Meat Production?
• Fresh Water?
Sources: http://www.fao.org
• Oceanic Fish Catch?
Do we have resources to sustain the continuous growth?
• Grain Production?
• Meat Production?
• Fresh Water?
• Cropland?
Do we have resources to sustain the continuous growth?
• Grain Production?
• Meat Production?
• Fresh Water?
• Cropland?
• Grain Production?
• Meat Production?
• Fresh Water?
• Cropland?
• Energy?
Source:
Do we have resources to sustain the continuous growth?
• Grain Production?
• Meat Production?
• Fresh Water?
• Cropland?
• Energy?
The Charts and Data in the previous slides, unless specified, can be downloaded,
free, from World Watch Institute’s publications, “State of the World” & “Vital Signs.”.
http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/pdf/
- -- -----
? ?? -
Ri g ht
h o i s
---- - W
----
Experts project peak here
http://www.peakoil.net
Why ASK so many QUESTIONS? - 1
Because…
This is where
the world’s
problems lie…
Questions may
lead to Solutions.
Reality
An Invitation
To
Peak Oil
Oil Production in An Oil Well
Peak
2
3
1 5
6
4 7
8
This chart shows the production output of an oil field A Typical Hubbert Curve
with eight individual oil wells. It is clear that, given
enough wells, a smooth curve would result. It is
known as Hubbert Curve, named after the
geophysicist M. King Hubbert .
Oil Production in USA (lower- 48) 1930 -2002
1. Since the oil reserved of any Oil Field is a finite number, it would run out one day
when the production start. And it would most likely to follow the Hubbert Curve
pattern if there is no interruption (such as war, etc…)
2. Before the oil companies can start to produce oil, they must first do the exploration
to discover them.
3. As the demand of oil keep increasing, due to the continuous growth of population,
vehicles and energy usage, etc… In order to keep the production sustainable to
meet the demand, the Discovery of NEW oil fields MUST increases accordingly.
Rates Mb/d
Amounts Gb
Take Note of the Peak Discovery Date, and The period of time between these date ranges from
Peak Production Date. 20 – 50 years… Average is around 40 years…
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2003 1.0
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.85
Consumption 2002 14
2 .0
per person b/a 1
Production Mb/d
Amounts Gb
Rates Mb/d
Amounts Gb
Production Already
Peaked in 1998
Rates Mb/d
Amounts Gb
Production Already
Peaked in 2000
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2003 0.3
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.7
700
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01
4
Amounts Gb 600
Past Production 8.23
Brasil
Rates Mb/d
Amounts Gb
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2003 3.4
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 1.7
Production Already
Peaked in 2003
Colombia
DiscoveryGb(bars)
0.8
Productionkb/d
Past Production 5.54
Production Already
Peaked in 1999
Rates Mb/d
Amounts Gb
Peaking
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2002 0.27
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.09
800
1.5
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.05
Amounts Gb
600
Past Production 8.7
Production Already
Peaked in 1995
0 .4 5 180
0 .4 160
0 .3 5 140
0 .3 120
Production kb/d
Discovery Gb
0 .2 5 100
0 .2 80
0 .1 5 60
0 .1 40
0 .0 5 20
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Production Already
Peaked before 1970
Source: ASPO
Oil Discovery and Production History: Indonesia
INDONESIA
Discovery Gb (bars)
Production kb/d
Past Production 19.41 3
Reported Proved Reserves 5.00
1000
Estimated Future Production to 2075
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2002 3.45
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 3.6
Production Already
Peaked in 1974
Iraq – Conventional
Rates Mb/d
Iraq
Consumption 2001 0.4
Peace Scenario
Discovery Gb (shaded)
5000 30
Production 2001 2.0
Production kb/d
Forecast 2010 3.0 25
4000
Forecast 2020 4.5
20
Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.06 3000
15
Amounts Gb
2000
Past Production 27 10
Discovery Gb (shaded)
5000 30
Depletion Midpoint Date 2021
4500
Production kb/d
Rates Mb/d
Amounts Gb
Production Already
Peaked in 1997
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2003 1.85
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 2.5
Past Production 35 40
Reported Proved Reserves* 96.5
1500
Future Production - total 58.5
30
From Known Fields 53.6 1000
20
From New Fields 4.9
Production Already
Peaked in 1971
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb(shaded)
Production 2002 1.3
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 1.2
12
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.1 2500
Amounts Gb 10
Past Production 23 2000
Reported Proved Reserves* 29.5
8
Future Production - total 32
1500
6
From Known Fields 29
1000
From New Fields 3.2 4
Past and Future Production 55
500 2
Current Depletion Rate 1.5%
Production Already
Peaked in 1970
Rates Mb/d
O il D is c o v e r y a n d P r o d u c tio n o f M e x ic o
Consumption 2002 1.8
1 .2 0 1 8 .0 0
per person b/a 6.6
Production [Gb/a]
Amounts Gb
Discovery [Gb]
Shaded
Past Production 23
0 .6 0
Reported Proved Reserves* 28.6
Production Already
Peaked in 2002
Nigeria
Rates Mb/d
3500
Production kb/d
Consumption 2002 ? 3000
per person b/a ?
2500
Production 2002 1.9 0.15 2.0
Amounts Gb 1000
Past Production 22.4 - 22.4
500
Reported Proved Reserves 24. 4.5 24
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Forecast 2010 1.8
Production kb/d
Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.013
Amounts Gb 2500
4
Past Production 16.3
Production Already
Peaked in 2003
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2003 0.82
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.41
800 2
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01
Amounts Gb
600 1.5
Past Production 7.3
Production Already
Peaked in 2001
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2003 0.087
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.055
200 0.4
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.001
Amounts Gb
150 0.3
Past Production 2.36
Production Already
Peaked in 1983
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2002 7.39
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 4.85
Production Already
Peaked in 1987
Saudi Arabia
Discovery Gb (bars)
Forecast 2010 9.69
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 8.78 100
8000
Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.66
Amounts Gb
80
Past Production 91 6000
Reported Proved Reserves 259
60
Estimated Future Production to 2075
SYRIA
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (bars)
500
Production kb/d
Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.006
Amounts Gb
1.5
Past Production 3.60 400
Reported Proved Reserves 2.50
Production Already
Peaked in 1995
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2002 0.13
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 .007
200
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01 0.5
Amounts Gb
150
Past Production 3.2 0.4
Reported Proved Reserves* 0.72
0.3
Future Production - total 1.3 100
From Known Fields 1.1
0.2
From New Fields 0.2
Production Already
Peaked in 1978
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2003 0.043
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.021
80 0.2
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.001
Amounts Gb
60 0.15
Past Production 0.84
Production Already
Peaked in 1991
United Kingdom
Discovery Gb (bars)
Forecast 2020 0.72 2500 5
Production kb/d
Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.21
Amounts Gb
2000 4
Past Production 18.78
Production Already
Peaked in 1999
USA – Conventional
Rates Mb/d
Production kb/d
Forecast 2010 2.6
Amounts Gb
Venezuela – Conventional
Rates Mb/d
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Forecast 2010 2.1
Production kb/d
Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.1
6
Amounts Gb 2500
Past Production 45
Production Already
Peaked in 1970
30
Production, Gb/a
100 Peak
Discovery 25
80
20
60 High Prices
Curb Demand 15
40 10
20 5
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Production is Projected to be
Peaked by 2007- 2015
Data Accuracy
Source: ASPO
The Growing Gap
60
Past Discovery
50
Future Discovery
40 Production
Gb
30
20
10
0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Source: ASPO
When Peak Oil arrive, what may happen?
No one know exactly what will happen, the following depicts two scenarios in the opposite extreme
case…
Worst Scenario: In an improperly informed or prepared societies, a Domino Effect that setting off
a chain reaction that destroy the necessary conditions required for a sustainable population.
Sustainable Population
Supply
World Peace
om
n
Water
n
tio
co
a
liz
dE
l
Oi
ri a
ap
Cheap
rl
st
e
Wo
du
Ch
In
Best Scenario: A well informed and cooperative societies that work peacefully to share (ration)
the remaining resources, first time in our human history.
YOU CANNOT LET OTHERS DO YOUR THINKING FOR YOU!
• Just a Recommendations:
1) Do Not fall into any mind trap in thinking negatively about the situation…,
2) Do NOT artificially force to think positively about the situation, too.
3) DO think Neutral and Realistic… and find out more about it and the impact… and
judge them by yourself.
For those who may have some interest…. 1
The trouble would be too much material in the web to get started nowadays, not too little…
To save some time, the following is a list of some good websites that you might want to surf the net
to find more infomation… Just click on the link…
Pretty entertaining…
http://www.leeric.lsu.edu/bgbb/2/mis_formation.html
Last But Not least
“The world is a Dangerous Place, not because of those who do evil, but because of
those who look and do nothing.” – Albert Einstein.
If you receive this short presentation… It means that someone is trying to make sure
you are not the last group of people who never hear about “Peak Oil”.
It is OK to totally ignore this presentation. Anyway, sooner or later, everyone will come
to hear and face about this from the mainstream media, the high oil price, etc...
This is a Green presentation. Just let it print on 100% recycle electrons… It would help
to prolong the “Peak Wood” scenario…
Best Regards
KH Tang http://blessedfool.blogspot.com/
28 Sep 2004