PEAK OIL - Something You Must Know by NOW

A
brief
introduction
to
PEAK
Complied by KH Tang
Part 1
An Invitation
to
ask some
Important Questions….
What is the GROWTH RATE of population in this planet?
Or 1.5 Singapore
What is the World Population?
We Are Here (2004)
What are the necessary conditions to make the sharp raise in this curve?
Do we have resources to sustain the continuous growth?
• Grain Production?
• Meat Production?
1 Hectares = 10,000 square meter
• Fresh Water?
• Fresh Water?
Sources: http://www.fao.org
• Oceanic Fish Catch?
• Fresh Water?
• Cropland?
• Fresh Water?
• Cropland?
• Forests (Fresh Air)?

• Fresh Water?
• Cropland?
• Energy?
Source:
• Fresh Water?
• Cropland?
• Energy?
• And others, Such as

Housing?
Jobs?
Income?
Materials? etc…
Where to find those Charts and Data for Resources?
The Charts and Data in the previous slides, unless specified, can be downloaded,
free, from World Watch Institute’s publications, “State of the World” & “Vital Signs.”.
http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/pdf/
http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/books/13/ Click here to download this Free PDF Book
Table of Contents: Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge

Grain Production
Fresh Water
Biodiversity
Energy
Oceanic Fish Catch
Jobs
Infectious Disease
Cropland
Forests
Housing
Climate Change
Materials
Urbanization
Protected Natural Areas
Education
Waste
Conflict
Meat Production
Income: Conclusion
The Emergence of Demographic Fatigue
Now, Who is right???
• On one hand, some scientists project a

continuous growth prospect for this planet..
- -- -----
? ?? -
Ri g ht
h o i s
---- - W
----
Experts project peak here
• On the other hand, some energy experts

warn that the production of fossil fuel (Oil
& Gas) is, within a decade, going to run
into peak, and then decline. They called
it “Peak Oil”.
http://www.peakoil.net
Why ASK so many QUESTIONS? - 1
Because…
QUESTIONS are the ANSWERS.

Source of figure: “The Limits to Growth” – Phenomenon of short-term focus….
This is where
the world’s
problems lie…
Questions may
lead to Solutions.
Most people Politicians

Think here think here to
Most of the win the next
Time…. election…..
“If we do not deal with Reality…
Reality
… Reality will deal with us.”

Part 2
An Invitation
To
Find Out more about
Peak Oil
Oil Production in An Oil Well
This chart shows a typical characteristic curve of

the production output vs time of an oil well.
Oil Production in An Oil Field
Peak
2
3
1 5
6
4 7
8
This chart shows the production output of an oil field A Typical Hubbert Curve
with eight individual oil wells. It is clear that, given
enough wells, a smooth curve would result. It is
known as Hubbert Curve, named after the
geophysicist M. King Hubbert .
Oil Production in USA (lower- 48) 1930 -2002
Because the USA (excluding Hawaii and Alaska) has been

Note:
producing longer than anyone else, largely unaffected by
In 1956, the geologist M. King
external matters, it shows the Hubbert Curve better than
Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil
anywhere else in the world. You can see that production has
production would peak in the early
been declining since the 1970s and, despite the efforts of
1970s. Almost everyone, inside and
the richest, most technologically advanced society in the
outside the oil industry, rejected
world, has not been stopped.
Hubbert's analysis. The controversy
Source: ASPO
raged until 1970, when the U.S.
production of crude oil started to fall.
Hubbert was right.
Simple Logic
1. Since the oil reserved of any Oil Field is a finite number, it would run out one day
when the production start. And it would most likely to follow the Hubbert Curve
pattern if there is no interruption (such as war, etc…)
2. Before the oil companies can start to produce oil, they must first do the exploration
to discover them.
3. As the demand of oil keep increasing, due to the continuous growth of population,
vehicles and energy usage, etc… In order to keep the production sustainable to
meet the demand, the Discovery of NEW oil fields MUST increases accordingly.
The following slides correlate the relationship between the

Discovery and Production of Oil Fields in various countries (in
alphabetical order).
Oil Discovery and Production History: Abu Dhabi
ABU DHABI Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d
Consumption 2003 0.2
per person b/a 7.3
Production 2003 1.9
Forecast 2010 1.9
Forecast 2020 1.9
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01
Amounts Gb
Past Production 18.6
Reported Proved Reserves* 92
Future Production - total 51.4
From Known Fields 48.5
From New Fields 2.8
Past and Future Production 70
Current Depletion Rate 1.8%
Depletion Midpoint Date 2026
Peak Discovery Date 1964
Peak Production Date 2011 History Projection
Take Note of the Peak Discovery Date, and The period of time between these date ranges from
Peak Production Date. 20 – 50 years… Average is around 40 years…
Source: ASPO newsletter

Oil Discovery and Production History: Algeria
ALGERIA Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

Algeria
per person b/a 1.9 1400 12
Discovery Gb (shaded)
Production 2003 1.0
Forecast 2010 1.2 1200 10
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.85
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.03 1000

8
Amounts Gb
Past Production 12.5 800

Reported Proved Reserves* 11.3
6
600
From Known Fields 13.3 4
400
From New Fields 2.2

200 2

0 0
Peak Discovery Date 1956 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Peak Production Date 2006

Oil Discovery and Production History: Angola
ANGOLA Regular Oil Deep Total

Water
ANG O LA
Rates Mb/d
Consumption 2002 14
2 .0
per person b/a 1
Production 2002 0.7 0 0 1 .8

Forecast 2010 0.5 0.5 1.0 1 .6
Forecast 2020 0.3 1.5 1.8
1 .4
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.2 1.5 1.5
1 .2
Production Mb/d
Amounts Gb
Past Production 4.3 0 4.3 1 .0

Reported Proved Reserves* 5.4 0 .8
Future Production - total 5.5 10 15
0 .6
From Known Fields 5.2 9 14
0 .4
From New Fields 0.2 1 1.2
Past and Future Production 10 10 20 0 .2

Current Depletion Rate 5% 0 .0
Depletion Midpoint Date 2004 2011 2011 1 9 3 01 9 4 01 9 5 01 9 6 01 9 7 01 9 8 01 9 9 02 0 0 02 0 1 02 0 2 02 0 3 02 0 4 02 0 5 0
Peak Discovery Date 1971 1998 1998
Peak Production Date 2004 2020 2019

R e g u la r ODil e e p w a te r " B "
Regular is Deep Water fields

Peaking Come to rescue

Oil Discovery and Production History: Argentina
ARGENTINA Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d
per person b/a 3.8
Production 2002 0.75
Forecast 2010 0.43
Forecast 2020 0.2
Amounts Gb
Past Production 8.3
From New Fields 0.5
Production Already
Peaked in 1998

Oil Discovery and Production History: Australia
AUSTRALIA Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d
per person b/a 0.042
Forecast 2010 0.45
Forecast 2020 0.29
Amounts Gb
Past Production 5.8
Future Production 5.2
From New Fields 1.4
Production Already
Peaked in 2000

Oil Discovery and Production History: Azerbaijan
AZERBAIJAN Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

Azerbaijan
Production 2003 0.3
Forecast 2010 0.8

800
5
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.7
700
4
Amounts Gb 600

500 3
400
From New Fields 2.1 300
Past and Future Production 23 1
200
100 0

Oil Discovery and Production History: Brazil
Brasil
Regular Deep Total

water
Rates Mb/d
per person b/a 3.6
Production 2002 0.11 .77 0.9
Forecast 2010 0.06 2 2.1
Forecast 2020 0.03 1.5 1.8
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.002 .03
Amounts Gb
Past Production 4.5 2 6.5
Reported Proved Reserves 8.3 -
Estimated Future Production to 2075
From Known Fields 0.6 12.5 13
From New Fields 0.8 3.9 5
Future Total 1.5 16.5 18
Past and Future Production 6.0 18.5 25
Current Depletion Rate 7% 2.8%
Depletion Midpoint Date 1991 2012
Peak Discovery Date 1975 1996
Peak Production Date 1997 2012
Regular Peaked Deep Water fields

In 1997 Come to rescue

Oil Discovery and Production History: China
CHINA Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

China
Production 2003 3.4
Forecast 2010 2.6 3000 12
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 1.7
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.04 2500 10

Amounts Gb
Past Production 29.8 2000 8


1500 6
1000 4
From New Fields 5.8

500 2

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 2003

Oil Discovery and Production History: Colombia
Colombia
Rates Mb/d Colombia


1000 1.2
Forecast 2010 0.39
Forecast 2020 0.24

1
Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.07 800
Amounts Gb
DiscoveryGb(bars)
0.8
Productionkb/d
Reported Proved Reserves 1.75

600
Estimated Future Production to 2075 0.6
400
From New Fields 0.53 0.4
Future Total 4.46
Total Production to 2075 10.00 200

0.2

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1999

Oil Discovery and Production History: Ecuador
KUWAIT Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d
per person b/a 4.0
Forecast 2010 0.39
Forecast 2020 0.37
Amounts Gb
Past Production 3.3
From New Fields 0.3
Peaking

Oil Discovery and Production History: Egypt
EGYPT Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

Egypt
Forecast 2010 0.17
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.09
800
1.5
Amounts Gb
600
Past Production 8.7

1
Future Production 4.3 400
From New Fields 0.8 0.5

200

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1995

Oil Discovery and Production History: Germany
0 .4 5 180
0 .4 160
0 .3 5 140
0 .3 120
Production kb/d
Discovery Gb
0 .2 5 100
0 .2 80
0 .1 5 60
0 .1 40
0 .0 5 20
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Production Already
Peaked before 1970
Source: ASPO
Oil Discovery and Production History: Indonesia
INDONESIA
Rates Mb/d INDONESIA


2000 5
Forecast 2010 0.83
Forecast 2020 0.56

4
Amounts Gb
Discovery Gb (bars)
Production kb/d
1000

From New Fields 1.59
Future Total 10.59 500

1
Total Production to 2075 30.00
Depletion Midpoint Date 1992 0 0

Note: Being an OPEC member, Indonesia has no more

Production Already extra capacity to export anymore in mid of 2004… There
Peaked in 1977 are importing now.
Export = Production - Consumption

Oil Discovery and Production History: Iran
IRAN Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

Iran
Forecast 2010 4.7 6000 25
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 3.6

20
Amounts Gb
Past Production 54 4000

15
Future Production - total 76
3000
From Known Fields 68 10
2000
From New Fields 8

1000 5

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1974

Oil Discovery and Production History: Iraq
Iraq – Conventional
Rates Mb/d
Iraq
Peace Scenario
5000 30
Production 2001 2.0
Production kb/d
Forecast 2010 3.0 25
4000
Forecast 2020 4.5
20
15
Amounts Gb
2000
Reported Proved Reserves 113 1000

5
0 0
From Known Fields 95 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
From New Fields 13
Future Total 108

Iraq
War Scenario
5000 30
4500
Production kb/d

4000
20
3000
2500 15
2000
10
1500
World 2nd Largest 1000
5
500
Oil Reserved 0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Oil Discovery and Production History: Italy
ITALY Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d
per person b/a 12.2
Production 2003 0.9
Forecast 2010 0.8
Forecast 2020 0.6
Amounts Gb
From New Fields 0.4
Past and Future Production 2.0
Production Already
Peaked in 1997

Oil Discovery and Production History: Kuwait
KUWAIT Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

Kuwait
per person b/a 42 3000 70
Forecast 2010 2.6

2500 60
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 2.5

2000
Amounts Gb
1500
30
20
From New Fields 4.9
Past and Future Production 90 500 10


0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1971

Oil Discovery and Production History: Libya
LIBYA Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

Libya
Discovery Gb(shaded)
Production 2002 1.3
Forecast 2010 1.4 3000 14
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 1.2
12
Amounts Gb 10
8
1500
6
From Known Fields 29
1000
500 2

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1970

Oil Discovery and Production History: Mexico
MEXICO Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d
O il D is c o v e r y a n d P r o d u c tio n o f M e x ic o
1 .2 0 1 8 .0 0
per person b/a 6.6
Production 2002 3.2
Forecast 2010 2.0 1 .0 0
Forecast 2020 1.2
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.1 0 .8 0 1 2 .0 0
Production [Gb/a]
Amounts Gb
Discovery [Gb]
Shaded
Past Production 23
0 .6 0

0 .4 0 6 .0 0
From New Fields 4.2
Past and Future Production 50 0 .2 0


0 .0 0 0 .0 0
Peak Production Date 2002 Year
Production Already
Peaked in 2002

Oil Discovery and Production History: Nigeria
Nigeria
Regular Deep Total Nigeria

water
Rates Mb/d
3500
Production kb/d
Consumption 2002 ? 3000
per person b/a ?
2500
Production 2002 1.9 0.15 2.0
Forecast 2010 1.9 1.2 3.1 2000

Forecast 2020 1.5 0 1.5
1500
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.6 0.9
Amounts Gb 1000
Past Production 22.4 - 22.4
500
Reported Proved Reserves 24. 4.5 24
Estimated Future Production to 2075 0

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
From Known Fields 30 4.5 34.5
From New Fields 2.6 3.0 5.6 Regular Oil Deepwater

Future Total 33 7.5 40.5
Past and Future Production 55 7.5 62.5
Current Depletion Rate 2.1% -
Depletion Midpoint Date 2009 2009
Regular Peaked Deep Water Fields

In 1979 Come to rescue

Oil Discovery and Production History: Norway
Norway – Conventional Oil
Rates Mb/d

Norway
Production 2001 3.1 3500 6
Forecast 2010 1.8
Forecast 2020 0.9 3000 5
Production kb/d
Discovery 5-year average (Gb) 0.013
Amounts Gb 2500
4
Reported Proved Reserves 9.5 2000

3
1500
1000
Future Total 16

500 1
Current Depletion Rate 7%

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 2003

Oil Discovery and Production History: Oman
OMAN Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d
Consumption 2003 0.03?

Oman
per person b/a 2.0 1000 2.5
Forecast 2010 0.62
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.41
800 2
Amounts Gb
600 1.5
Past Production 7.3
Future Production - total 7.2 400 1

From New Fields 0.2

200 0.5

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 2001

Oil Discovery and Production History: Peru
PERU Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

Peru
Forecast 2010 0.072
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.055
200 0.4
Amounts Gb
150 0.3
Future Production - total 1.14 100 0.2


50 0.1

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1983

Oil Discovery and Production History: Russia
RUSSIA Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

Russia
Forecast 2010 9.34

10000 30
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 4.85

8000
Amounts Gb

6000
15
10
From New Fields 15
Past and Future Production 200 2000 5


0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1987

Oil Discovery and Production History: Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Rates Mb/d Saudi Arabia

Production 2001 6.47 10000 120
Discovery Gb (bars)
Forecast 2010 9.69
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 8.78 100
8000
Amounts Gb
80
Reported Proved Reserves 259
60

From New Fields 14 40
Future Total 209
2000
Total Production to 2075 300 20

0 0
World Largest When Saudi peak, the world supply peak.

Oil Reserved

Oil Discovery and Production History: Syria
SYRIA
Rates Mb/d

SYRIA
600 2
Forecast 2010 0.261
Forecast 2020 0.123
Discovery Gb (bars)
500
Production kb/d
Amounts Gb
1.5
Estimated Future Production to 2060 300 1


Future Total 2.40 0.5
Total Production to 2060 6.00
100

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1995

Oil Discovery and Production History: Trinidad
TRINIDAD Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

Trinidad
Forecast 2010 0.09 0.6
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 .007
200
Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01 0.5
Amounts Gb
150
Past Production 3.2 0.4
0.3
Future Production - total 1.3 100
0.2
From New Fields 0.2

50
0.1

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1978

Oil Discovery and Production History: Turkey
TURKEY Regular Oil
Rates Mb/d

Turkey
Forecast 2010 0.033
Production kb/d
Forecast 2020 0.021
80 0.2
Amounts Gb
60 0.15
Future Production - total 0.36 40 0.1


20 0.05

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1991

Oil Discovery and Production History: United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Rates Mb/d United Kingdom

Production 2001 2.26 3000 6

Forecast 2010 1.31
Discovery Gb (bars)
Forecast 2020 0.72 2500 5
Production kb/d
Amounts Gb
2000 4

1500 3
From New Fields 2.1 1000 2

Future Total 13.2
Total Production to 2075 32 500 1


0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1999

Oil Discovery and Production History: USA
USA – Conventional
Rates Mb/d

USA
Production 2001 4.4
10000
Production kb/d
Forecast 2010 2.6
Forecast 2020 1.4

8000
Amounts Gb
Past Production 169

6000
Reported Proved Reserves 22

4000
From New Fields 6.4

2000
Future Total 26
Past and Future Production 195 0

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Depletion Midpoint Date 2003 US-48 Alaska

Deepwater >500m
Note also the Depletion Rate….

Production Already It simply means, even if there is no growth in demand, USA still
Peaked in 1971 has to import more to cover their own depletion of production
every year… What about the growth in demand for economy?

Oil Discovery and Production History: Venezuela
Venezuela – Conventional
Rates Mb/d

Venezuela
Production 2001 2.4 3500 8
Forecast 2010 2.1
Forecast 2020 1.8 3000
Production kb/d
6
Amounts Gb 2500
Past Production 45
Reported Proved Reserves 78 2000

Estimated Future Production to 2075 4
From New Fields 6.7
1000
Future Total 50 2
Total Production to 2075 95
500

0 0
Production Already
Peaked in 1970

Oil Discovery and Production History: WORLD
Peak Discovery 1964

140 40
120 35
Discoveries, Gb/a
30
Production, Gb/a
100 Peak
Discovery 25
80
20
60 High Prices
Curb Demand 15
40 10
20 5
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Production is Projected to be
Peaked by 2007- 2015
Data Accuracy
• The data used in this presentation is from ASPO, where they

collected from many sources, all of which are in varying degrees
unreliable.
• Nevertheless the general pattern of growth, peak and decline of

discovery followed by production is compelling.
The experts agreed that there is no best

method to forecast the exact date. A
prediction of the peak can only be confirmed
by a rear-view mirror… Which means people
can only know the exact date after it has
passed by.
Source: ASPO
The Growing Gap
60
Past Discovery
50
Future Discovery
40 Production
Gb
30
20
10
0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Now, we are using 4 barrels and discover 1 barrel.

The Gap is GROWING…
Source: ASPO
When Peak Oil arrive, what may happen?
No one know exactly what will happen, the following depicts two scenarios in the opposite extreme
case…
Worst Scenario: In an improperly informed or prepared societies, a Domino Effect that setting off
a chain reaction that destroy the necessary conditions required for a sustainable population.
Sustainable Population
Supply
Cheap Food Supply

y
World Peace
om
n
Water
n
tio
co
a
liz
dE
l
Oi
ri a
ap
Cheap
rl
st
e
Wo
du
Ch
In
Best Scenario: A well informed and cooperative societies that work peacefully to share (ration)
the remaining resources, first time in our human history.
YOU CANNOT LET OTHERS DO YOUR THINKING FOR YOU!
• The OBJECTIVES of this presentation are:

1) to create an awareness, and
2) to raise the interest of the readers to find out more about the “Peak Oil”
subject for themselves, though asking Questions which may concern their near
future benefits (within a decade).
• Just a Recommendations:
1) Do Not fall into any mind trap in thinking negatively about the situation…,
2) Do NOT artificially force to think positively about the situation, too.
3) DO think Neutral and Realistic… and find out more about it and the impact… and
judge them by yourself.
For those who may have some interest…. 1
If you just do a Google search…for “Peak Oil”.

It reports back as Results 1 - 10 of about 1,850,000 matched. (dated 27 Sep 2004).
The trouble would be too much material in the web to get started nowadays, not too little…
To save some time, the following is a list of some good websites that you might want to surf the net
to find more infomation… Just click on the link…
• ASPO the Association for the Study of Peak Oil

http://www.peakoil.net/
This is known as the official site for Peak Oil. There are many relevant materials in various format from Video (in
Real Media), MP3, PowerPoint and PDF presentations….
• The Wolf at the Door – The Beginner’s Guide to Oil Depletion

http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk
Since many have heard about energy crisis a couple of times, like in the 70s when US was peaked… and
naturally thinking that some people is crying wolf again... Back up with well research and organized data, the
webmaster of this site is trying to convince people that this time is for real, and The Wolf is already at the Door. It is
interesting to read about the guess book too.
• Simmons & Company International

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
Matthew R. Simmons, had been the energy adviser for President Bush, chairman and CEO of Simmons &
Company International (Energy Investment Banker), had posted MANY presentations for his investors in energy
sector. Whether you invest or not, the presentation are equally informative, and some of them are quite
entertaining…
For those who may have some interest…. 2
• Global Public Media

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/
One of the easiest way to get informed is to use the video/audio media from this site. Need a broadband
connection, otherwise it is too slow.
• Life after the Oil Crash

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Introduction.html
This web owner is trying to predict and present the worst scenario. Nothing can get more worst than his
prediction. As the web owner is a lawyer, it have to acknowledge that he can tell stories very well…
• Energy Bulletin – Keep Up to Date

http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php
An excellent site to keep update on all relevant news with peak oil.
• Petroleum Education Stuff…

http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php
Telling people how oil is formed, what are the byproducts for petroleum etc…
Also telling people that most people have the wrong idea of how oil is formed.
Pretty entertaining…
http://www.leeric.lsu.edu/bgbb/2/mis_formation.html
Last But Not least
“The world is a Dangerous Place, not because of those who do evil, but because of
those who look and do nothing.” – Albert Einstein.
If you receive this short presentation… It means that someone is trying to make sure
you are not the last group of people who never hear about “Peak Oil”.
It is OK to totally ignore this presentation. Anyway, sooner or later, everyone will come
to hear and face about this from the mainstream media, the high oil price, etc...
This is a Green presentation. Just let it print on 100% recycle electrons… It would help
to prolong the “Peak Wood” scenario…
Best Regards
KH Tang http://blessedfool.blogspot.com/
28 Sep 2004

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A

We Are Here (2004)

1 Hectares = 10,000 square meter

• Oceanic Fish Catch?

• Oceanic Fish Catch?

• Forests (Fresh Air)?

• Oceanic Fish Catch?

• Forests (Fresh Air)?

• Oceanic Fish Catch?

• Forests (Fresh Air)?

• And others, Such as

http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/books/13/ Click here to download this Free PDF Book

Table of Contents: Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge

• On one hand, some scientists project a

• On the other hand, some energy experts

QUESTIONS are the ANSWERS.

Source of figure: “The Limits to Growth” – Phenomenon of short-term focus….

Most people Politicians

“If we do not deal with Reality…

… Reality will deal with us.”

Find Out more about

This chart shows a typical characteristic curve of

Because the USA (excluding Hawaii and Alaska) has been

The following slides correlate the relationship between the

ABU DHABI Regular Oil

Consumption 2003 0.2

per person b/a 7.3

Production 2003 1.9

Forecast 2010 1.9

Forecast 2020 1.9

Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.01

Past Production 18.6

Reported Proved Reserves* 92

Future Production - total 51.4

From Known Fields 48.5

From New Fields 2.8

Past and Future Production 70

Current Depletion Rate 1.8%

Depletion Midpoint Date 2026

Peak Discovery Date 1964

Peak Production Date 2011 History Projection

Source: ASPO newsletter

ALGERIA Regular Oil

Consumption 2003 0.17

Forecast 2010 1.2 1200 10

Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.03 1000

Past Production 12.5 800

Past and Future Production 28

Depletion Midpoint Date 2006

Source: ASPO newsletter

ANGOLA Regular Oil Deep Total

Production 2002 0.7 0 0 1 .8

Past Production 4.3 0 4.3 1 .0

Past and Future Production 10 10 20 0 .2

Peak Production Date 2004 2020 2019

Regular is Deep Water fields

Source: ASPO newsletter

ARGENTINA Regular Oil

Consumption 2002 0.4

per person b/a 3.8

Production 2002 0.75

Forecast 2010 0.43

Forecast 2020 0.2

Discovery 5-yr average Gb 0.1