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[T6] iRAP Case Study 1 Peoples Republic of China

[T6] iRAP Case Study 1 Peoples Republic of China

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Published by: Asian Development Bank Conferences on Dec 05, 2012
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45021-002: Anhui Intermodal Sustainable Transport Development Project

ADB Training Course November 2012

About ChinaRAP
• Partnership between iRAP and the Research Institute of Highway (RIOH), Ministry of Transport Financially supported by the Global Road Safety Facility (GRSF) and Bloomberg Philanthropies Supporting Multilateral Development Bank projects

A World Free of High Risk Roads

45021-002: Anhui Intermodal Sustainable Transport Development Project
Step Relationship building and training (RIOH and iRAP) Anhui mission with ADB to establish road network for assessment GRSF (Bloomberg) grant to iRAP signed iRAP engage RIOH to lead in-country activities Date 2008-2010 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Nov 2012

Data collection (road survey, crash data, economics) and coding by RIOH and AHAB
Star Ratings, Safer Roads Investment Plan

Dec 2012
Jan-Feb 2012

Research and development
Reporting Assessing Inception Report designs

Oct-Mar 2012
March 2012 Oct-2012

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Progress
1. 2. 3. We have a baseline risk assessment We have an economic assessment

Star Rating feasibility road designs and suggestions for improvement

4.

Setting performance indicators for Anhui roads in Design Monitoring Framework

5.
6.

Star Rating preliminary and detailed designs
Post construction Star Ratings

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Example Road: G206 Dongliu to Yaodu
• Upgrade to Class 1 • Length: 16.6km • Traffic: 6,031 pcu (27,776 pcu in 2030) • 85th % speeds = 84km/h; av speeds = 69km/h • Estimated death rate: 0.11 deaths per km

A World Free of High Risk Roads

• Video of road
• • • • • 1:45 – NMV 2:20 – Peds 3:00 – overtaking 30:35 - int 31:25 - overtaking

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Road name Section

Vertical alignment Road condition and skid resistance

Carriageway
Distance

Sidewalk provision (left and right)
Land use (left and right)

Length
Latitude Longitude Landmark Vehicle flows Motorcycle flows Bicycle flows Pedestrian flows Area type Number of lanes for use by through traffic Speed Lane widths for lanes serving through traffic Paved shoulder width Unpaved shoulder width Centreline and shoulder rumble strips Curvature Quality of curve

Parking (side friction)
Pedestrian crossing facility (and quality) Pedestrian footpaths Facilities for bicycles Pedestrian fencing Facilities for motorised two wheelers Lighting Service road Property access density Roadside severity (left and right) Intersection type (and quality and use) Median type Major upgrade cost Comments Roadworks Overtaking demand Delineation

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Risk factors (or Crash Modification Factors)
Examples: • Lynham, D. (TRL), 2012, Development of risk models for the road assessment programme (www.trl.co.uk) • Crash Modification Factors Clearinghouse (www.cmfclearinghouse.org) (US DOT) • National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP), Transportation Research Board (TRB), (2009) Highway Safety Manual Knowledge Base • Elvik, R., Hoye, A., Vaa, T. and Sorensen, M (2009) The Handbook of Road Safety Measures, 2nd ed, Emerald Group, United Kingdom • Austroads (2002-07) Road Safety Risk Assessment Project • McMahon, K. and Dahdah. S. (2008). The True Cost of Road Crashes: Valuing life and the cost of a serious injury. http://www.irap.org • MIROS, Accident Characteristics of Injured Motorcyclists in Road Crashes in Malaysia

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Example CMF
Horizontal curvature

Curve relative Very sharp Sharp risk factors: 6.0 3.5

Moderate 2.2

Straight 1.0

Source: ARRB and Austroads A World Free of High Risk Roads

Example CMF
Roadside severity

Source: Stigsson

~45% higher than deformable object

A World Free of High Risk Roads

• Equations in ViDA

A World Free of High Risk Roads

A World Free of High Risk Roads

VEHICLE OCCUPANTS

5 4 3 2 1

A World Free of High Risk Roads

VEHICLE OCCUPANTS

MOTORCYCLISTS

PEDESTRIANS

BICYCLISTS

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Baseline Star Ratings
VEHICLE OCCUPANTS

STAR RATINGS

MOTORCYCLISTS

BICYCLISTS

PEDESTRIANS

5 4 3 2 1

0% 0% 31% 64% 6%

0% 0% 13% 26% 61%

0% 0% 0% 39% 28%

0% 0% 0% 8% 93%

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Value of human life
• iRAP ‘rule of thumb’: 70 x GDP per capita • Serious injury: 0.25 x 70 x GDP per capita • Deaths:serious injuries: 1:10
Source: McMahon, K. and Dahdah. S. (2008). The True Cost of Road Crashes: Valuing life and the cost of a serious injury. http://www.irap.org

On this basis for China • Human life: • Serious injury:

70 x 5,715 = $400,050 0.25 x 70 x 5,715 = $100,013

• RIOH research indicates value of human life: RMB 3,009,369 ($476,360)
A World Free of High Risk Roads

Cost of deaths and serious injuries on G206 Dongliu to Yaodu
Deaths =
2.3 x RMB 3,009,369 = RMB 6.8 million per year

Serious injuries =
23 x RMB 3,009,369 x 0.25 = 16.9 million per year

Total cost =
RMB 23.7 million per year

A World Free of High Risk Roads

What can we do to improve the Star Ratings (and reduce economic costs?)

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Countermeasure proposals

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Improve curve delineation @1282.5km

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Construct footpaths @1284.2km

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Construct roundabout @1293km

A World Free of High Risk Roads

A World Free of High Risk Roads

A World Free of High Risk Roads

A World Free of High Risk Roads

INTERSECTIONS? INCREASED SPEED (ASSUME 90KM/H)

ALIGNMENT?
CHANGES IN LAND USE? – PEDESTRIAN MOVEMENTS

PAVED SHOULDER PAVEMENT EXTRA LANES

MEDIAN DELINEATION EXTRA LANES (PEDS) LIGHTING

FIXED OBJECTS
FOOTPATH & BICYCLE PATH

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Vehicle occupants
STAR RATING 5 4 3 2 1 BASELINE 0% 0% 31% 64% 6% PROPOSED 0% 0% 34% 63% 4%

Key assumptions: traffic, pedestrian and bicycle flows same as baseline; 85th % speeds = 90km/h; alignment same as baseline; intersection and property access locations and layout same as baseline. Street lighting poles are non-frangible; medians are not traversable with non-frangible trees; passenger-side paved shoulders are wide, driver-side are narrow.

A World Free of High Risk Roads

A World Free of High Risk Roads

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Motorcyclists
STAR RATING 5 4 3 2 1 BASELINE 0% 0% 13% 26% 61% PROPOSED 0% 0% 11% 85% 5%

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Bicyclists
STAR RATING 5 4 3 BASELINE 0% 0% 0% PROPOSED 0% 42% 20%

2
1 NOT RATED

39%
28% 34%

0%
0% 39%

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Bicyclists
BASELINE PROPOSED

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Pedestrians
STAR RATING 5 4 3 2 1 BASELINE 0% 0% 0% 8% 93% PROPOSED 0% 0% 0% 97% 4%

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Economic assessment
ANNUAL BASELINE PROPOSED (CURRENT TRAFFIC) CHANGE PROPOSED (2030 TRAFFIC) * CHANGE DEATHS AND SERIOUS INJURIES 25 16 -34% 59 +137% ECONOMIC COST RMB 24 m RMB 16 m -34% RMB 56 m +137%

* Traffic volumes based on Inception Report forecasts. No adjustments have been made to pedestrian and bicyclist activity at this stage.

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Additional countermeasures

A World Free of High Risk Roads

Next Steps
1. 2. 3. We have a baseline risk assessment We have an economic assessment

Star Rating feasibility road designs and suggestions for improvement

4.

Setting performance indicators for Anhui roads in Design Monitoring Framework

5.
6.

Star Rating preliminary and detailed designs
Post construction Star Ratings

A World Free of High Risk Roads

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