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FM-S104a-Overview of the MP for the Chao Phraya River Basin by Kimio Takeya

FM-S104a-Overview of the MP for the Chao Phraya River Basin by Kimio Takeya

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Overview of the Comprehensive Flood Management Plan for the Chao Phraya River Basin & Lesson Learned from

Recent Mega Disaster

4 Dec. 2012

TAKEYA Kimio
◆Senior Advisor Japan International Cooperation Agency, JICA ◆Advisor of Strategic Committee for Water Resources Management,
Co-Chaired by Prime Minister & Deputy Prime Minister of Royal Thai Government
The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

1

Recent Abnormal Flood Events in the world

Manila Flood 2009

• Metro Manila Marikina Pasig River Flood, 2009 • Pakistan, Indus River Flood, 2010 • PRC, Chang Jiang River Flood, 2010 • Thailand, Chao Phraya River Flood, 2011 • Cagayan de Oro & Iligan River Flood, 2012

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Ondoy Flood

Zone1: flush flood

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Zone2: Lagna Lake Inundation

Zone3: Central Manila Urban Drainage Standing Water

防災科研 2009年フィリピン台風災害調査速報 より

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Pakistan Indus Flood 2010
from WMO
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news/extremeweathersequence_en.html

Pakistan Flood 2010

• Russia; Heat Wave, Forest Fire and Peat Natural Fire • Pakistan; Extreme Flood by Monsoon July-Aug. 2010

•Precipitation
– Peshawar : 1 day max rainfall 274mm was estimate as 2,800 years return period

•River Discharge
– Tarbela Dam Inflow Peak : 23,645m3/s was estimated as 3,461 years return period
8 9

PRC 2010
from WMO
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news/extremeweathersequence_en.html

Thailand Chao Phraya River Flood 2011

• Russia; Heat Wave, Forest Fire and Peat Fire • Pakistan; Extreme Flood by Monsoon • PRC; Big Flood and Land Slide July 2010

Worst Affected province in South of China (Source: IFRC)

(11:50, Nov. 21, 2011)
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2012 CAGAYAN DE ORO & ILIGAN

Recent Abnormal Flood Events in the world
• Metro Manila Marikina Pasig River Flood, 2009 • Pakistan, Indus River Flood, 2010 • PRC, Chang Jiang River Flood, 2010 • Thailand, Chao Phraya River Flood, 2011 • Cagayan de Oro & Iligan River Flood, 2012

Are these within Climate Variability or by Climate Change?
From the report of “DPWH – JICA Assessment of the damages at Cagayan de Oro and Iligan brought by Typhoon Sendong, December 2011”

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Manila Flood 2009 Damage & Losses from PDNA Report

Indus Food 2010 Damage & Losses from PDNA Report

≒$4 billion

≒$10 billion
14 15

Chao Phraya Flood 2011, Damage & Losses from PDNA Report
Development

Issue

Build-back-better
Normal Development Obstructed by Disasters, far away from MDGs

Recovery & Development Disaster
Disaster Disaster

Time ≒$60 billion
16 17

Pathum Thani (13:50, Nov. 06, 2011)

Flood in Thailand
 World worst 4 natural disaster No1 No2 No3 No4 East Japan E/Q & Tsunami Hurricane Katrina Hanshin Big Earthquake Thailand flood 2011
 This flood caused tremendous damage, including 813 dead and 3 missing nationwide (as of Jan. 8, 2012; Thai Ministry of Interior, 2012).  The area of damaged agricultural land throughout Thailand peaked on Nov. 14 at 18,291 km2 (Thai Ministry of Interior, 2012).  The total flood volume was estimated to be 15 billion m3.  In the industrial sector, 7 industrial estates and 804 companies were struck with inundation damage, and of those, 449 companies were Japanese (Japan External Trade Organization, 2011).  The World Bank (as of Dec., 2011) estimates 660 billion baht in damage to property such as real estate, and 700 billion baht in opportunity loses, for a total loss of 1.36 trillion baht (approx. 3.5 trillion yen) due to this flood.  The real economic growth rate in 2011 is expected to decelerate from 3.7% to 2.4% (Bangkok Post, 2011)

JICA’s Support to “Safe & Resilient Thailand”
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Situation of 2011 precipitation
In the flood years (1983 and 1995) when  In 2011, monthly rainfall exceeded the Thailand has a tropical savanna climate, and it  period average monthly rainfall over the Bangkok was inundated (Somkiat, 2009),  has basically two seasons: the rainy season  entire period of the rainy season, and the monthly rainfall in July, August and October of  (May‐October) and the dry season (November‐ highest 1983 exceeded the monthly period average in  April). values during 1982-2002 were recorded in July and September. 1982‐2002, and of those months, the rainfall in  October was the highest in 1982‐2002.  The total rainfall during the rainy season
was 1,439 mm, which was 143 % of the In 1995, monthly rainfall in July and August  period average total rainfall. exceeded the monthly period average in 1982‐
※The basin rainfall was caluculated by Voronoi diagram using TMD Observation Data. - Daily precipitation data of May.- Oct., 2011 (From GTS) - 1982-2002 of daily precipitation data (From GAME-T Data 400 Center) Ave.1982-2002_2011

The Impact of Typhoon in Thailand (2011)
Provided by Assoc.Prof. Kanae, Tokyo Institute of Technology

There are 5 typhoons which affected in Thailand.
4: HAIMA 8: NOCK-TEN 17: NESAT 18: HAITANG 19: NALGAE

6/21 - 6/25 985 hPa 40 knots

7/26 - 7/31 984 hPa 50 knots

9/24 - 9/30 950 hPa 80 knots

9/25 - 9/27 996 hPa 35 knots

9/27 - 10/05 935 hPa 95 knots

2002, and of those two months, August was the  highest in 1982‐2002. Total rainfall in the rainy  season exceeded the period average total rainfall  (1,003 mm) in both years, was 1,147 mm and  Ave.1982-2002 1,153 mm, respectively. 2011 300
200

The number of landfall in Thailand

100

161% 134% 178% 132% 144% 111%
May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct.
1951 2001 1961 2010 1971 1981 1991

0

In addition, 5 typhoons made landfall in Thailand in 2011. The average number of typhoon landfall in 1951- 2011 is 1.5, and 5 or more typhoons made landfall in Thailand in only 3 years: 1964, 1971 and 1972. This also strongly influenced to increase rainfall in 2011. 21

22

Relationship between rainfall and runoff
(Ratio of normal  average of rainfall; %)

Past flood at the Chao Phraya River basin

Runoff

 The normal value of cumulative  rainfall and pan evaporation at the  Thai Meteorological Department 

100 – 70 =  30 1,192 mm and 842 mm, namely ET  ↓ is 70 % of rainfall.  70 =  73 143 – There was no major change in 

(Phitsanulok observatory; 16°47'N,  100°16'E; 45 m above mean sea  level) in the rainy season were 

Evapotranspiration

evaporation and infiltration during  the rainy season between the  flood year and other years.

In the flood years, the increase of  rainfall is directly reflected into  the increase of river discharge
143 % of  normal average of rainfall (=73/30) % of  normal average of river discharge 

243

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River Characters
Chao Phraya Catchment Area (km2) River Length (km) Gradient (lower portion) River Capacity (lower portion m3/s) Discharge/Basin Area Basin Retention Effect Flood (peak) Duration 159,000 1,100 1/50,000 3,000~ 4,000 0.02 big 1-2 month Tone 16,480 322 1/9,000 21,000 1.2 very small 2 days Rhine 185,000 1,230
1/15,000

Mississippi 3,220,000 6,210 1/5,000 77,000 0.02 small 1 month
24 25

14,000? 0.08 small 2 week

Former Study : The Study on Integrated Plan for Flood Mitigation in Chao Phraya River Basin, 1999 • Structural Measures

Former Study : The Study on Integrated Plan for Flood Mitigation in Chao Phraya River Basin • Non Structural Measures

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Current Situation on Thai-JICA Projects
The 2011 Flood
Resilient Community Development
1 Preparation of Community‐based    disaster risk management plan
Urgent Rehabilitation Work

Typical Disaster Management Cycle
・Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of Infrastructure
Flood Operation
1. Flood Forecast and Early  Warning System 2. Dam Operation 3. Water gate operation

Preparation of M/P
1. Short‐term Plan 2. Mid‐Long  term Plan

1.

Reconstruction of dyke,  ring dyke  2. River structure (Water  Gate and canal etc.)

・Mental Health Care

After Flood, Thailand Government decided “Mega Investment”more than $10billion Mainstreamed DRR to Government Policy, with support of JICA evacuation drill ・Hazard mapping,

Component 2
Submission of Application as  an official request 

Component 1

Component 3 

Recovery

Mitigation

Submission of Application as an official request 

<Development Study> • Formulation of a guideline toward resilient community development <Grant Aid/Development Study> • Rehabilitation of irrigation facilities • Recover of production capacity in pasture

<Grant Aid> • Construction of 2 water gates • Elevation of highway No.9

<Development

Study>
• Review of M/P • Laser Profiler for detailed map 25,000km2

<Development Study>
• Capacity Development on Flood Operation • Prototype of Flood Forecast System

・Dispatch of Rescue team ・Provision of Rescue supply

・Organization Reinforcement ・Establishment of Disaster Management Plan ・Development of Early Warning System

Response Disaster

Preparedness

28

JICA on going 180 million $ Technical Long-term Expert Assistance to prevent same kind of flood

29

Mainstreaming DRR into Government Top Priority
1. Nov. 14, before flood peak reach to Bangkok, Deputy Prime Minister declared government strong decision for investment at the APEC meeting 2. Also declared Flood Control Master Plan revising will be supported by JICA

Mainstreaming DRR into Government Top Priority =Set up 2 Top Level Committee=
Chaired by Prime Minister & Former DPM Chaired by Prime Minister & Deputy PM

Strategic Committee for Economic Recovery

Strategic Committee for Water Resources Management

JICA TAKEYA assigned for only one foreign Advisor

Short Term Sub C.

Long Term Sub C.

JICA Revises Master Plan as support for detail
Target 25 river basins in whole Thailand Holistic Approach Integrated Water Resources Management
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Basic Concept to Revise the Master Plan

Existing Knowledge for flood control
• Flood forecast

•Respect and input the knowledge and experiences of Thailand •Propose the best solution by integrating Thailand, Japanese and other technologies, knowledge and experiences without taking any behind to the schedule of Thailand Government’s effort
32

– Existing knowledge of discharge or water level relationship with beneficial flood and serious flood

– Flood should be controlled, uncontrollable flood will not be allowed
33

Existing Knowledge

Quick decision by the Government SCWRM
• 22 Nov. 2011 First Meeting • 7 Dec. JICA proposed Laser Profiler Airborne Survey

Discussing further support from JICA

• 26 Dec. Framework for Master Plan decided • 27 Dec. Cabinet Approved this MP with finance 350 billion BHT≒ 10 billion $ and New Organization
34 35

Quick decision by the Government SCWRM
• 22 Nov. 2011 First Meeting • 7 Dec. JICA proposed Laser Profiler Airborne Survey

Concept of Revising Master Plan
•Structural Measures
– Store and Divert

Mainstreamed DRR to Government Most Important Issue Discussing further support from JICA

•Non-Structural Measures
– Apply all available measures including political decision, without any hesitation

• 26 Dec. Framework for Master Plan decided • 27 Dec. Cabinet Approved this MP with finance 350 billion BHT≒ 10 billion $ and New Organization
36

•JICA Team will try to show the scientific & engineering evident to solve the problem
37

Example of Counter Measures

Flood Control until MP Completion
• Appropriate flood control rule & strict operation – Definite controlled inundation to the west side of Chao Phraya River

Resilient Zone High Safety Zone
“Safe & Resilient Thailand” by the best Mix of Structural & Non-structural Measures
38 39

Flood Control Operations To Be Optimized together with Flood Forecasting System
OPERATIONS •Dam operation •Pump operation •Controlled Inundation •Flood fighting •Warning/Evacuation ‥ OBSERVATION DATA •Precipitation •Evaporation (temperature) •Topographic map data •Land use •Inundation area LP Earth Observation Satellite Observation OUTPUT

JICA already start to forecast on WEB from 4 Sep.

To be optimized

Past Experience and

•River flow discharge •Water level

MODEL

HYDRAULIC ANALYSIS •Runoff Analysis •Inundation Analysis
41

(To be analyzed in the JICA Master Plan)

JICA already start to forecast on WEB from 4 Sep.

JICA already start to forecast on WEB from 4 Sep.

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Example for Standardized Data Structure and Architecture in Japan Disaster Prevention Measure Planning with GIS based DB

Requested Various Applications for Flood Control
= like tip of iceberg =

2次元水理解析の流況
現況河道

Analysis using Digital Map Data Flood Control Measure Simulation 河川改修方針の検討の手順
(現況の環境区分)

(1/20:Q=130m3/s)

Monitoring System Flood Forecast Remote Operation

<水平縦断面>

計画河道
<代表横断面>
(2次元水理解析結果)

Weather Forecast

GIS Database

<河道条件イメージ> (改修後の環境区分の予測)

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Applications like tip of iceberg

Application & Supporting Architecture
Application like Satellite used innovated SCADA system

Spirally Updated =Short Term Value

Legal Preparation

Human Resource Development Program & Practice

Most important Guideline for Data Stock & Management Items are Standardization of System Architecture Under the Structure water sea Standardization of Data
Operation Guideline in each Field

Human Resources = Long Term Value DATA is Fortune =Long Term Value Market Mechanism Spirally Updated =Short Term Value

Subsystems
Security Coding System Authentication System VPN

Data Synchronicity Tech. Push, Pull, Agent

Transaction Management Index Repository Data Storage Back-up Data Warehouse Data Mining System

e-Banking Collaboration w/ Banks e-Commerce

Data Compression Tech. Hyper Compression Tech. Charging Tech. for Images Collaboration w/ Other Agencies Data Exchange Tech. Auto-Research/Collection Tech. by Agent Other Technologies Revitalization Tech. of Legacy data/Resources

Offer of Various Interfaces E-Kiosk GIS

Communication Infrastructure
46 47

IT maturity of the Society

Every Natural Disaster has forerunning phenomenon then we can predict disaster & let people evacuate
実写 奈良県

JICA’s Lesson Learnt from MEGA Disaster
=2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood= • Was there anything out of our mind?
The ability to recognize risk and take action properly

“multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense

Mainstreaming Of DRM for Sustainable Development
Even debris flow We can predict

Capacity of society To cope with disaster

continuous improvement to deal with changing risk
49

Lesson Learnt of Thailand Flood 2011
Gap1
scenario disaster

JICA’s Lesson Learnt from MEGA Disaster
=2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood= • Was there anything out of our mind?
The ability to recognize risk and take action properly

Gap2
beyond scenario

Gap3
Change with time

“multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense

- Miscommunication of disaster potential - Insufficient investment in DRM →Discussion on validity of a scenario level and limitations of measures (Risk Literacy)

- Inundation beyond estimation due to abnormal weather →Leveling of highways work as secondary dyke (Redundancy)

-Lowered retention effect due to urbanization →Preparation of MP taking account for climate variation and urbanization (Kaizen)

Mainstreaming Of DRM for Sustainable Development
Capacity of society To cope with disaster

continuous improvement to deal with changing risk
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Thank you for your attention

Toward Safe & Resilient Thailand

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