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Gainers & Losers in 2012

Nigerian market is completely out of bottomed-out stage


Tuesday, December 18, 2012 / The Analyst

2012 Review: Nigerian equities experienced the unusual and unrelenting bargain hunting in the early periods of the last month of the year - December; the period that most investors would have envisaged more of profit taking sessions. Traditionally, December is usually associated with cautious trading along with continuous sell activities as most fund managers and institutional investors seek to rebalance and reshuffle portfolio in the act of closing the books for the year during this month.
NSE: Data Showing Unparallel Bargain Hunting During Yuletide Season Current Year Dec 1
st

Comparable Periods (Dec 1st -Dec 14th)


th

-Dec 14

2011 -0.77%

2010 -1.85%

2009 -1.86%

2008 -14.45%

+4.50% Proshare Research

This year, unparallel active bargain hunting drove the market index up by above 1000 basis points in fourteen (14) days (Dec 1st -Dec 14th). This active accumulation trend would indicate activities from value investors, smart money and fund managers in the market - a pointer to attractive valuations of the market or key value stocks while the market sentiments firmly hinting the market that the storm may be over completely, building up to the new beginning and this might hopefully stoke a full market recovery in the coming year. Tracking market trends technically while we give credence to the cycle theory, the outlook reveals that the Nigerian market is completely out of bottomed-out stage as the level of accumulation pattern has significantly moved northward. This technically further suggests that prices are likely to be recording higher highs in the coming periods as the mark-up phase sets in. We present below an analytical review that reveals the winning and laggard stocks in the year. 2012 Review: Defensive & Market-Making Stocks Keep Market Alive

Year-to-date, the equities market recorded 55 winning and 65 laggard stocks to put the market breadth in a weak posture. Further analysis affirms that the consumer goods and financial services sector(s) as the investors toasts thus far in 2012, closely followed by equities in the Industrial and Agricultural sectors.

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Gainers & Losers in 2012

WINNERS - The Top 20

A cursory review of the winning stocks (see table below) revealed a value investing and cautious approach by investors in the year as most of the investors toasts were defensive stocks. The key sectors are: Consumer Goods and Financial Services sectors record 31.58% while Industrial and Agric sectors record 15.79% & 10.53% respectively. It was equally observed that market-making stocks dominated the Top 20 table with 60% stake, which shows that market making had a significant impact on the market outlook so far.

LAGGARDS - The Top 20

Analysis of the profile of the laggards table revealed stocks of Oil & Gas sector to be the more unprofitable stocks so far in the year, weighing down the potentials of the market towards market recovery. This shows that investors have been reducing their stakes considerably in the sector for the reasons that cannot be isolated from weak cash-flow in the industry as revealed and published recently by Proshares TheAnalyst - Cash-flow Challenges Cast Dark Cloud Over Oil & Gas Stocks as Sector Bleeds

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Gainers & Losers in 2012

Find below the complete table of market performance in the year.

Top Twenty Leading Stocks


COMPANY PAINTCOM CADBURY INTBREW DIAMONDBNK GLAXOSMITH CAP DNMEYER UBA ACCESS LIVESTOCK PRESCO FIRSTBANK NB NESTLE STERLNBANK AIRSERVICE FIDELITYBK UNILEVER NCR NASCON Proshare Research Sector Industrial Goods Consumer Goods Consumer Goods Financial Services Healthcare Industrial Goods Industrial Goods Financial Services Financial Services Agriculture Agriculture Financial Services Consumer Goods Consumer Goods Financial Services Services Financial Services Consumer Goods ICT Consumer Goods 03-Jan-12 0.52 11.4 5.7 2.01 23 14.5 1.07 2.6 5.04 0.75 8.67 9.07 95.03 423.38 1.01 2.17 1.43 29 9.31 4.07 13-Dec-12 1.89 28.76 14.2 4.6 44.99 28 2.05 4.86 9 1.33 15.3 15.6 162 715 1.68 3.59 2.32 47 15.08 6.57 Change 1.37 17.36 8.5 2.59 21.99 13.5 0.98 2.26 3.96 0.58 6.63 6.53 66.97 291.62 0.67 1.42 0.89 18 5.77 2.5 % Change 263.46% 152.28% 149.12% 128.86% 95.61% 93.10% 91.59% 86.92% 78.57% 77.33% 76.47% 72.00% 70.47% 68.88% 66.34% 65.44% 62.24% 62.07% 61.98% 61.43%

Other Gainers
COMPANY TRANSCORP GUARANTY ASHAKACEM OKOMUOIL DANGFLOUR ZENITHBANK SMURFIT EVANSMED UACN WAPCO UPL GTASSURE IBTC BAGCO GOLDBREW CCNN FIDSON Sector Conglomerates Financial Services Industrial Goods Agriculture Consumer Goods Financial Services Construction/Real Estate Healthcare Conglomerates Industrial Goods Services Financial Services Financial Services Industrial Goods Consumer Goods Industrial Goods Healthcare 03-Jan-12 0.56 14.12 11.61 23.1 5.23 12.3 1.04 0.67 31.48 43.25 3.4 1.35 8.02 1.73 0.54 4.56 0.82 13-Dec-12 0.87 21.9 18 35 7.9 17.56 1.48 0.95 43.99 60 4.7 1.85 10.8 2.3 0.68 5.68 1 Change 0.31 7.78 6.39 11.9 2.67 5.26 0.44 0.28 12.51 16.75 1.3 0.5 2.78 0.57 0.14 1.12 0.18 % Change 55.36% 55.10% 55.04% 51.52% 51.05% 42.76% 42.31% 41.79% 39.74% 38.73% 38.24% 37.04% 34.66% 32.95% 25.93% 24.56% 21.95%

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Gainers & Losers in 2012

DANGSUGAR REDSTAREX ROADS RTBRISCOE UTC WAPIC DANGCEM AIICO GUINNESS NAHCO MANDRID CONFDINS TOURIST JBERGER ETI CHAMPION SKYEBANK PZ ELLAHLAKES

Consumer Goods Services Construction/Real Estate Services Consumer Goods Financial Services Industrial Goods Financial Services Consumer Goods Services Consumer Goods Financial Services Services Construction/Real Estate Financial Services Consumer Goods Financial Services Consumer Goods Agriculture

4.9 2.5 8.69 1.22 0.5 0.52 110.77 0.52 237.56 5.39 5.66 0.61 4.32 31.6 10.5 4.03 3.9 28.6 4.26

5.8 2.95 10.07 1.4 0.57 0.59 121.5 0.57 260 5.7 5.94 0.64 4.53 33 10.94 4.15 4 29 4.26

0.9 0.45 1.38 0.18 0.07 0.07 10.73 0.05 22.44 0.31 0.28 0.03 0.21 1.4 0.44 0.12 0.1 0.4 0

18.37% 18.00% 15.88% 14.75% 14.00% 13.46% 9.69% 9.62% 9.45% 5.75% 4.95% 4.92% 4.86% 4.43% 4.19% 2.98% 2.56% 1.40% 0.00%

Proshare Research

The Leading Laggards


COMPANY ARBICO AVONCROWN MORISON CHEVRON IKEJAHOTEL PRESTIGE IPWA CUSTODYINS LONGMAN OANDO JAPAULOIL CONOIL TOTAL FO UBN VITAFOAM MAYBAKER JOSBREW CILEASING ETERNAOIL Sector Construction/Real Estate Industrial Goods Healthcare Oil & Gas Services Financial Services Industrial Goods Financial Services Services Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Financial Services Consumer Goods Healthcare Consumer Goods Services Oil & Gas 03-Jan-12 26 5.94 9.05 59 1.62 0.94 0.91 2.34 2.95 22 0.94 31.5 188.1 11.6 10.6 5.31 2.08 2.05 0.66 3 13-Dec-12 6.91 1.99 3.84 30.68 0.87 0.51 0.5 1.32 1.75 13.37 0.58 20.05 121.68 7.98 7.37 3.7 1.5 1.53 0.5 2.28 Change -19.09 -3.95 -5.21 -28.32 -0.75 -0.43 -0.41 -1.02 -1.2 -8.63 -0.36 -11.45 -66.42 -3.62 -3.23 -1.61 -0.58 -0.52 -0.16 -0.72 % Change -73.42% -66.50% -57.57% -48.00% -46.30% -45.74% -45.05% -43.59% -40.68% -39.23% -38.30% -36.35% -35.31% -31.21% -30.47% -30.32% -27.88% -25.37% -24.24% -24.00%

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Gainers & Losers in 2012

Other Laggards
COMPANY JOHNHOLT ETRANZACT TRIPPLEG PHARMDEKO NEIMETH FCMB ACADEMY GOLDINSURE MOBIL PORTPAINT BETAGLAS IHS MULTITREX BOCGAS MCNICHOLS TRANSEXPR NNFM HONYFLOUR CHELLARAM NPFMCRFBK UNITYBNK WEMABANK CONTINSURE UAC-PROP CAPHOTEL PREMBREW AGLEVENT ENAMELWA ALEX NIGROPES NIG-GERMAN ABBEYBDS JULI ADSWITCH STUDPRESS 7UP THOMASWY NSLTECH LAWUNION VANLEER CUTIX SCOA NEM Sector Conglomerates ICT ICT Healthcare Healthcare Financial Services Services Financial Services Oil & Gas Industrial Goods Industrial Goods ICT Consumer Goods Natural Resources Consumer Goods Services Consumer Goods Consumer Goods Conglomerates Financial Services Financial Services Financial Services Financial Services Construction/Real Estate Services Consumer Goods Conglomerates Consumer Goods Natural Resources Industrial Goods Healthcare Financial Services Services Industrial Goods Services Consumer Goods Natural Resources Services Financial Services Industrial Goods Industrial Goods Conglomerates Financial Services 03-Jan-12 5.89 4.94 2.94 3.5 1.08 4.1 2.2 0.65 133.91 5.11 12.71 2.59 1.21 6.85 1.02 3.45 21.48 2.31 6.43 1.12 0.56 0.56 0.8 12 6.78 0.96 1.38 36.19 11.15 8.26 8.59 1.44 2.76 1.71 2.78 46 1.38 0.76 0.52 13.28 1.55 5.52 0.56 13-Dec-12 4.57 3.84 2.29 2.73 0.87 3.31 1.79 0.53 109.25 4.17 10.5 2.14 1 5.68 0.85 2.92 18.38 2.03 5.71 1 0.5 0.5 0.72 10.83 6.27 0.89 1.29 33.96 10.55 7.85 8.17 1.37 2.63 1.63 2.65 44 1.32 0.73 0.5 12.98 1.52 5.42 0.55 Change -1.32 -1.1 -0.65 -0.77 -0.21 -0.79 -0.41 -0.12 -24.66 -0.94 -2.21 -0.45 -0.21 -1.17 -0.17 -0.53 -3.1 -0.28 -0.72 -0.12 -0.06 -0.06 -0.08 -1.17 -0.51 -0.07 -0.09 -2.23 -0.6 -0.41 -0.42 -0.07 -0.13 -0.08 -0.13 -2 -0.06 -0.03 -0.02 -0.3 -0.03 -0.1 -0.01 % Change -22.41% -22.27% -22.11% -22.00% -19.44% -19.27% -18.64% -18.46% -18.42% -18.40% -17.39% -17.37% -17.36% -17.08% -16.67% -15.36% -14.43% -12.12% -11.20% -10.71% -10.71% -10.71% -10.00% -9.75% -7.52% -7.29% -6.52% -6.16% -5.38% -4.96% -4.89% -4.86% -4.71% -4.68% -4.68% -4.35% -4.35% -3.95% -3.85% -2.26% -1.94% -1.81% -1.79%

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Gainers & Losers in 2012

FLOURMILL BERGER

Consumer Goods Industrial Goods

65.5 8.47

65 8.41

-0.5 -0.06

-0.76% -0.71%

Proshare Research

About the Authors:


Taiwo OLOGBON-ORI is an analyst in Proshare and Reshu BAGGA is a Director for The Analyst & COO, Technical Services.

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Tags: 2012 Review, The Analyst, Nigerian Stock Exchange, NSE, SEC, Market making, Bottomed-Out Stage, Defensive & Market-Making Stocks, Winning Stocks, laggards, Financial Services, Consumer Goods, Agriculture, Oil & Gas, Sectoral Analysis, Technical Analysis, Value Investors, Stockbrokers, Equities, Fundamental Analysis, Investors, Sentiments Analysis

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