New York Senate District 46 Tkaczyk for State Senate

OCTOBER 8, 2012

Methodology
 500 interviews conducted between October 4th and 7th at 
approximately 15 minutes in length.  Registered, likely voters in the upcoming New York 26th senate  district election  3 samples by party registration
 Democrats – 36%  Independents / Blanks – 31% (oversample n=250 interviews)  Republicans – 32%

 4.9% margin of error

Generic State SenateTrial Heat
All Voters Albany MM Albany County Greene County Mont / Schen County Ulster County Men Women Under Age 50 Age 50‐64 Age 65+ Democrats Independents Republicans Independent Men Independent Women

41% 34% 46% 34% 26% 53% 35% 45% 43% 41% 37% 77% 30% 10% 21% 37% 13%

40% 46% 42% 49% 47% 28% 45% 35% 39% 36% 45%

37% 73% 45% 30%

Democrat

Republican

George Amedore Favorability
All Voters Albany County Greene County Mont / Schen County Ulster County Men Under 50 Men 50+ Women Under 50 Women 50+ Democrats Independents Republicans Independents Under 50 Independents 50+ Govt Employee Labor HH

47% 56% 39% 75% 23% 58% 53% 32% 45% 36% 45% 63% 35% 51% 49% 48% Favorable

13% 11% 15% 16% 11% 8% 13% 15% 15% 18% 11% 9% 9% 12% 18% 16% Unfavorable

State Senate Trial Heat
ALL VOTERS Albany MM Albany County Greene County Mont / Schen County Ulster County Men  Women Men Under 50 Men 50+ Women Under 50 Women 50+ Tkaczyk 37% 29 36 40 19 50 32 41 34 31 44 39 Amedore 50% 60 54 50 70 32 55 46 53 57 43 47 Undecided 13% 11 10 11 11 18 13 14 13 12 13 14

…State Senate Trial Heat Continued…
ALL VOTERS Non‐College Men College Men Non‐College Women College Women Democrats Independents • Independent Men • Independent Women • Independents Under 50 • Independents Over 50 Republicans Government Employee Labor Household Tkaczyk 37% 23 43 35 50 66 30 27 32 28 30 10 37 41 Amedore 50% 61 48 53 36 23 54 58 50 51 56 77 52 49 Undecided 13% 16 9 12 14 11 17 15 18 21 14 13 11 10

Campaign Finance Reform Proposal
Partly Favor 32% Partly  Oppose 14% Strongly  Oppose 9% Democrats Independents Republicans

69% 66% 64%

20% 25% 25%

Not sure /  Refused 10%

Ind. Men Ind. Women Ind. Under 50

66% 65% 59% 70% Favor

24% 25% 32% 21% Oppose

Strongly  Favor 35%

Ind. Over 50

Party Issue Advantage
(Ranked by Differential)
Is on your side

37%

35%

Will work to clean up Albany

32%

32%

Will reduce tax burden on the middle class

39%

41%

Is too beholden to special interests

25%

32%

Will work to help small business

34% Democrat

46% Republican

Trial Heat After Bios
Positive Movers
Independents Under 50 Tkaczyk 43% Independent Women Amedore 47% Women Under 50 Mont / Schen County Non‐College Women Non‐College Men Not sure /  Refused 8% Other /  Neither 2% Labor HH

+19 +13 +12 +11 +10 +10 +10

Amedore Negatives
Will allow insurance cos to deny care for pre‐existing conditions Voted to ban abortion in all cases, pharmacists refuse bc Supports vouchers, would take money out of public schools Against tax increase for rich, increasing minimum wage, sm business loans Opposes stem cell research Voted to keep giving tax breaks to corps shipping jobs overseas Part of pay to play culture in Albany Taken $50k from one LI real estate developer Taken $65k from real estate, voted against sm business loans Supports frakking A luxury home developer, voted against foreclosure moratorium

47% 43% 39% 39% 39% 38% 36% 35% 34% 34% 34%
Somewhat Less Likely

14% 13% 19% 17% 17% 19% 15% 15% 21% 17% 16%
No Difference FALSE

10% 16% 18% 24% 19% 19% 26% 31% 26% 20% 29% 5%

19% 14% 8%

7% 3% 10% 5% 13% 3%

8% 6% 5% 8% 12% 6% 9% 4%

10%

11% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 16% 8%

7% 8% 5%
Not Sure

Much Less Likely

More Likely

Amedore Negatives Among Subgroups
Much Less Likely ALL VOTERS Ulster County Under Age 50 Ind/Blanks ALL VOTERS Ulster County Women under 50 ALL VOTERS Ulster County Ind/blanks under 50 Women 50+ 47% 66 57 49 43% 61 49 39% 49 48 47 Somewhat Less Likely 14% 12 12 10 13% 11 12 19% 18 15 17 No Difference 10% 2 7 7 16% 9 8 18% 13 17 16 Q. 29 Against Obamacare, deny women’s health screenings, pre‐existing conditions

Q. 31 Ban abortion, allow pharmacists to deny emergency BC

Q.35 Supports vouchers, cut $45 M from local schools

…Amedore Negatives Among Subgroups…
Much Less Likely ALL VOTERS Ulster County Undecided voters Ind/blanks under 50 ALL VOTERS Ulster County Women 50+ Undecided voters ALL VOTERS Undecided voters Albany County Age 65+ Ind/blank Women 39% 51 44 42 39% 50 52 40 38% 50 46 44 40 Somewhat Less Likely 17% 13 20 21 17% 15 13 26 19% 6 15 18 20 No Difference 19% 17 14 16 24% 22 12 14 19% 23 15 22 30 Q. 37 Opposes stem cell research, would risk thousands of good NY jobs

Q. 30 Against tax increase for rich, min wage raise, and small business loans

Q28 Voted to keep tax breaks for job outsourcers

Final Trial Heat
ALL VOTERS Albany MM Albany County Greene County Mont / Schen County Ulster County Men  Women Men Under 50 Men 50+ Women Under 50 Women 50+ Tkaczyk 48% 40 45 44 36 62 43 53 42 44 56 50 Amedore 39% 47 46 45 49 24 44 35 42 45 32 37 Change to Tkaczyk +22 +24 +17 +9 +38 +20 +22 +23 +19 +25 +23 +21

…Final Trial Heat Continued…
ALL VOTERS Non‐College Men College Men Non‐College Women College Women Democrats Independents • Ind. Men • Ind. Women • Ind. Under 50 • Ind. Over 50 Republicans Govt Employee Labor HH Tkaczyk 48% 40 46 46 62 78 42 40 44 47 39 20 48 53 Amedore 39% 48 40 41 28 15 40 43 37 32 45 66 40 38 Change to Tkaczyk +22 +30 +11 +23 +20 +20 +26 +28 +25 +38 +20 +21 +23 +23

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