You are on page 1of 9

Charlottesville / Central Virginia Region 2012 Market Overview

NestRealty.com

1 of 9

2012: A Pivot in a Positive Direction


Well be the first ones to admit that we were a little down on the real estate market over the last few years. How could you not be? Every time we turned around, prices were down, inventory was up, and buyers were scared to move forward on the purchase of their next home. While we did start to see some positive trends in 2011 (not the least of which were the historically low interest rates), theres a strong chance that well look back at 2012 as the year we really started to come out of this real estate mess weve been tangled in since late 2006. The overall Charlottesville real estate market performed well in 2012. Total sales in the MSA increased from 2326 to 2676 in 2012, a significant increase of 15%. In addition, median prices edged upward by 2% to $249,000. On top of those positive numbers, inventory levels decreased and, thus, months of inventory improved. Total year end inventory was 6% lower than in 2011 and months of inventory fell to 10.09 months, an improvement of 12% over 2011. The 2059 homes on the market in December 2012 represents the lowest levels since February 2006 when there were just 1891 homes for sale. The nice part about the market improvements in 2012 are that the improvements are fairly consistent among most major indexes, areas, and submarkets. Take median prices as an example: MSA detached homes (+2%), overall Albemarle (+4%), Albemarle detached (+1%), overall Charlottesville (+2%), and Charlottesville detached (+3%) all saw modest gains in 2012. Inventory levels and months of inventory for each of these segments were also down (a positive sign) from 2011. If youve been following The Nest Report for the last few years, youve probably seen us reiterating one major point: the real estate market cannot even begin to recover until inventory levels recede from their previous sky-high levels. So, even though we are starting to see modest median price gains, the reduction of inventory levels is the most welcome news. In fact, the drop in inventory levels is most likely the main factor leading to the median price gains. As you read through this report, youll see an almost unending list of positive news: median prices up, contracts written up, inventory levels down, days on market down...the list goes on. But one word of caution: lets not get too confident, too early. There are still challenges that the Charlottesville MSA market must conquer. For example, as nice as it is to see inventory levels in certain market segments drop from 16 months to 9 months, those levels are still relatively high as compared to levels as compared to the last 6 to 7 years. In addition, there are still a lot of homeowners in the marketplace who are underwater. A 2% increase in median prices over the past year hardly makes up for the 10-20% drop we saw from the peak of the market. Lastly, we do anticipate that inventory levels may bump upward in 2013 as many home sellers jump back in a real estate market that is exhibiting its first positive trends in five to six years. It will be interesting to track how much inventory increases and, if it does, how much the increased demand will be able to absorb those additional homes. In addition to anticipating more re-sales on the market, the recent increase in new developments will lead to more new home inventory in the Charlottesville marketplace. For the first time in years, developers are breaking ground on brand new developments. These new developments are bringing hundreds of home sites to the marketplace. New home sales have been strong for the last 24 months and we expect this trend to continue in 2013. Just as new home development and construction has come back strong, real estate investors are also back in the marketplace. The low interest rates, an improved economy, and higher consumer confidence is leading to an uptick in residential real estate investors in and around Charlottesville. Overall, the health of the Charlottesville real estate market is improving...thanks in large part to a strong 2012. All signs are pointing to that momentum from 2012 continuing into 2013. There are still some good values in the marketplace. Combine that with low interest rates and we expect sales to keep progressing on an upward trend line in 2013. So, we tip our hats to the 2012 real estate market to what we hope was the next step towards a more stable, long-term real estate market in Central Virginia.

NestRealty.com

2 of 9

Central Virginia/Charlottesville MSA Real Estate Market Snapshot


The overall sales trend for the Charlottesville MSA continues to trend in a positive direction. For the 6th straight quarter, total year-over-year sales were up. Q4 2012 sales were up 19% from Q4 2011 (from 624 to 524). On an annual basis, the overall MSA performed well in 2012. Median single family home prices increased 3.2% and total sales increased 15.1% as compared to 2011. In addition, inventory levels continued to slide downward: total inventory fell by 4.2% and months of inventory dropped by 4.7%.

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Number of Sales)


1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

5 YEAR TREND

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Q2 11

Q3 11

Q4 11

Q1 12

Q2 12

Q3 12

Q4 12

Attached homes and condominium sales were also strong in 2012. Total sales jumped by 15.3% (from 570 to 657). While the median price of attached and condos did fall by 1%, total inventory and months of inventory fell dramatically. Total units for sale at the end of 2012 as compared to 2011 are 22.4% lower (342 in 2012 as compared to 441 at the end of 2011). In addition, months of inventory levels were also much lower at 7.12 months - thats a 41.9% reduction as compared to the 12.25 months at the end of 2011. Overall, the health of the Charlottesville MSA real estate market was vastly improved in 2012.

MSA (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, and Nelson)

Average List Price

Average Sale Price $341,653 1.7% $335,818 -5.2% $354,211 Average Sale Price $210,865 2.4% $205,825 -9.9% $228,479

Median Sale Price $278,692 3.2% $270,000 -3.6% $280,000 Median Sale Price $189,000 -1.0% $190,950 -10.2% $212,750

Price per Square Foot $135.00 -2.9% $139.00 -4.1% $145.00 Price per Square Foot $140.00 -0.7% $141.00 -4.1% $147.00

Avg Days on Market 108 -6.9% 116 4.5% 111 Avg Days on Market 111 3.7% 107 0.0% 107

Total Sales 2020 15.1% 1755 -0.6% 1765 Total Sales 657 15.3% 570 -1.0% 576

Total Inventory 1396 -4.2% 1457 -10.9% 1636 Total Inventory 342 -22.4% 441 -5.8% 468

Months of Inventory 8.89 -4.7% 9.33 -23.0% 12.11 Months of Inventory 7.12 -41.9% 12.25 25.6% 9.75

Single Family

2012 Change 2011 Change 2010

$367,173 3.7% $354,157 -5.1% $373,189 Average List Price

Attached / Condo

2012 Change 2011 Change 2010

$217,222 2.0% $213,004 -8.8% $233,436

NestRealty.com

3 of 9

Albemarle County Real Estate Market Snapshot


On a quarterly basis, the 4th quarter was strong for Albemarle County home sales. Q4 saw 266 total sales in Albemarle County, an increase of 7.25% as compared to Q4 2011. On an annual basis, total sales in 2012 were up in Albemarle County by 14.1% over 2011 (1280 in 2012 vs. 1122 in 2011). Condominiums in Albemarle bounced back strong as banks continued to loosen their condo financing restrictions. Total condominium sales jumped by 18.3% from 2011 as 123 condominiums changed hands in Albemarle in 2012. While the average price of Albemarle condos (+15%) and price/square foot (+5.1%) did increase, median prices fell by 4.5% to $118,000.

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales)


600

5 YEAR TREND

500

400

300

200

100

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Q2 11

Q3 11

Q4 11

Q1 12

Q2 12

Q3 12

Q4 12

Single family home sales in Albemarle were up 15% over 2011 (852 vs. 741) . In addition, median prices edged up slightly to $350,000, representing a modest increase of 1.2%. Total days on market for Albemarle single family homes also improved to just 102 DOM: an 8.9% improvement from 2011. Attached homes in Albemarle also had a strong year with a 9.4% increase in sales over 2011 (304 vs. 278). Median prices moved upwards by 5.2% to $232,500. Finally, contracts written in Q4 were up for single family (+22.9%) and attached (+35.7%).

Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market

Avg $ PSF $151 -4.4% $158 $151 -3.2% $156

Total Sales # 852 2012

Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market 250,625 247,153 232,562 4.7% 2.8% 1.2% 93 13.4% 82 93 2.2% 91

Avg $ PSF $133 0.8% $132 $133 2.3% $130

Total Sales # 304 13.4% 268 304 9.4% 278

Single Family

2012 Change 2010 2012 Change 2011

497,554 454,558 350,000 2.3% -1.3% 3.0%

102 -7.3% 110 102 -8.9% 112

486,392 460,449 339,900 497,554 454,558 350,000 8.2% 4.4% 1.2%

713 852 15.0% 741

Attached

19.5%

Change 2010 2012 Change 2011

239,321 240,331 229,800 250,625 247,153 232,562 7.1% 7.3% 5.2%

459,906 435,456 346,000

234,074 230,364 221,000

Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market 2012 170,139 161,676 118,000 -21.5% -20.0% -16.0% 101 -22.3% 130 101 4.1% 97

Avg $ PSF $124 -10.8% $139 $124 5.1% $118

Total Sales # 123 17.1% 105 123 18.3% 104

Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Single Family Attached Condos 144 56 20 Q4 2012 177 76 16 Change 22.9% 35.7% -20.0%

Condos

Change 2010 2012 Change 2011

216,686 202,011 140,500 170,139 161,676 118,000 14.6% 15.0% -4.5%

148,452 140,622 123,500

NestRealty.com

4 of 9

Albemarle County Market Snapshot (Part 2)

Albemarle County Sales by Sub-Area


8%

Albemarle County Sales by Type

13%

10%

17% 13% 24% 4% 67% 16% 19%

9%

29 North Crozet

Rio Ivy

Earlysville Keswick

Southside Barracks

Single Family

Attached

Condos

In 2012, the Crozet area was the strongest selling segment of Albemarle as it made up almost 1 in 5 total sales at 19%. The strength of new home sales in Old Trail and Wickham Pond undoubtedly aided Crozet in achieving 243 sales. Keswick also performed well with 217 sales (17%), due in large part to a resurgence of sales in Glenmore. Southside (16%), 29 North (13%), and Rio (13%) rounded out the top 5 most popular areas in Albemarle for 2012. Two out of every three 2012 sales were single family homes. Attached homes made up 24% of the Albemarle market , while condos were 10%.
Albemarle County Percent of Sales by Price Range
2012 39% 43% 12% 3% 3%

2011

42%

42%

11%

3% 3%

2010

37%

46%

10%

3%

4%

2009 0%

36% 25% 50%

45% 75%

12%

4%

4% 100%

0-250K

250K-500K

500K-750K

750-1M

1M+

The price distribution of 2012 sales stayed in line relative to the previous three years. 39% of all homes sold in Albemarle in 2012 were under $250,000. This is a slight drop from 2011, but consistent with previous years. 43% of homes sold were between $250,000 and $500,000, a slight bump from 2011 (42%). 18% of all sales were above $500,000, which is almost identical to 2011 (17%), 2010 (17%), and 2009 (20%). Its a positive trend not to see any major fluctuations in these price distribution segments - giving us more confidence that were in the midst of a sustainable recovery.

NestRealty.com

5 of 9

Charlottesville City Real Estate Market Snapshot


After struggling through 2010 and most of 2011, the Charlottesville City real estate market bounced back in a major way in 2012. Total sales in Charlottesville were up by 24.6% in 2012 as compared to 2011 (501 vs. 402). Single family homes performed the strongest with a total sales increase of 30.9% (356 vs. 272). Median prices increased by 3.1% for single family homes in 2012 to $268,000. We expect single family home sales to continue to improve in 2012 as demand continues to be strong (as evidenced by a 12.5% increase in Q4 contracts written) and also because there are several new neighborhoods planned within the City limits for 2012.

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales)


250

5 YEAR TREND

200

150

100

50

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Q2 11

Q3 11

Q4 11

Q1 12

Q2 12

Q3 12

Q4 12

Charlottesville condominium sales were also particularly positive in 2012 with an increase of 15.8% over 2011 (110 vs. 95). The final developer sales at Walker Square undoubtedly helped condo sales improve. Price reductions at Walker Square also led to an overall condo median price drop of 2.3%. There seems to be a bit of a shortage of condos heading into 2013: dont be surprised if sales drop, but median prices start to inch upwards. Attached home sales in the City were off by 5.7% this past year, due in large part to a shortage of desirable inventory.

Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market

Avg $ PSF $160 -1.2% $162 $160 0.6% $159

Total Sales # 356 38.5% 257 356 30.9% 272 2012

Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market 196,487 187,280 174,000 -1.3% -2.4% -6.5% 110 -21.4% 140 110 -5.2% 116

Avg $ PSF $111 -9.0% $122 $111 -3.5% $115

Total Sales # 33 -17.5% 40 33 -5.7% 35

Single Family

2012 Change 2010 2012 Change 2011

342,508 323,167 268,000 -3.6% -2.9% -0.7%

94 -15.3% 111 94 -7.8% 102

Attached

Change 2010 2012 Change 2011

355,206 332,824 270,000 342,508 323,167 268,000 4.2% 4.7% 3.1%

199,119 191,944 186,000 196,487 187,280 174,000 -3.2% -3.5% -16.7%

328,546 308,638 260,000

202,962 193,993 209,000

Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market 2012 199,065 190,965 171,000 -27.8% -30.0% -22.7% 108 42.1% 76 108 -1.8% 110

Avg $ PSF $186 -15.5% $220 $186 -9.3% $205

Total Sales # 110 37.5% 80 110 15.8% 95

Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Single Family Attached Condos 56 9 18 Q4 2012 63 5 18 Change 12.50% -44.44% 0.00%

Condos

Change 2010 2012 Change 2011

275,782 272,903 221,267 199,065 190,965 171,000 -14.5% -13.9% -2.3%

232,910 221,752 175,000

NestRealty.com

6 of 9

Charlottesville City Market Snapshot (Part 2)

Charlottesville City Sales by Elementary School Area

Charlottesville City Sales by Type

19%

21%

22%

7% 20% 17% 71% 13% 10%

Burnley Moran Jackson-Via

Clark Johnson

Greenbrier Venable

Single Family

Attached

Condos

The Johnson (20%), Burnley Moran (21%), and Venable (19%) districts made up 60% of City sales in 2012. These ratios fall in line with the previous few years. As expected, more than 7 out of every ten home sales in the City were single family homes. The City of Charlottesville is made up of an overwhelmingly high percentage of single family homes. Condominium sales totaled 22%, while 7% of the sales were attached homes.

Charlottesville City Percent of Sales by Price Range

2012

54%

37%

4%

2% 2%

2011

56%

35%

6%

1%1%

2010

53%

38%

6%

2% 2%

2009 0%

51% 25% 50%

42% 75%

4%

2%1% 100%

0-250K

250K-500K

500K-750K

750-1M

1M+

Similar to Albemarle County, the price distribution of sales in the City of Charlottesville fell in line with the previous three years. 54% of all sales were below $250,000, which represents a slight drop from 2011 but an increase from 2010 and 2009. 37% of all sales were between $250,000 and $500,000. While there were more higher end sales in the City in 2012 than in previous years, sales over $500,000 made up a similar percentage of the total market.

NestRealty.com

7 of 9

Fluvanna County

Average List Price 2012 $214,823 -10.1% $239,030 3.4% $231,219

Average Sale Price $205,890 -8.7% $225,606 -0.5% $226,803

Median Sale Price $181,500 -8.1% $197,500 -3.7% $205,000

Avg Days on Market 104 -16.1% 124 29.2% 96

Total Sales # 339 28.9% 263 -13.8% 305

Total Inventory 293 -2.3% 300 1.7% 295

Months of Inventory 12.2 9.8% 11.11 -28.4% 15.52

Overall

Change 2011 Change 2010

Fluvanna sent some mixed messages in 2012. On a positive note, after an almost 14% drop in sales from 2010 to 2011, sales jumped by 28.9% to 339 total sales in 2012. On the flip side, median prices fell again to $181,500 (-8.1%). In addition, months of inventory at the end of 2012 increased slightly from 11.11 to 12.2 months. However, lower prices seem to have spurred demand in Fluvanna as contracts written in Q4 were up 22.4% from 2011. We expect these lower prices in Fluvanna to continue to draw more buyers in 2013.

Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change

76

93

22.4%

Greene County

Average List Price 2012 $248,182 -1.6% $252,239 -6.6% $270,027

Average Sale Price $240,489 -3.7% $249,832 -5.3% $263,722

Median Sale Price $230,000 1.5% $226,500 -8.5% $247,500

Avg Days on Market 112 9.8% 102 6.3% 96

Total Sales # 214 4.4% 205 -2.4% 210

Total Inventory 255 38.6% 184 -18.9% 227

Months of Inventory 10.2 -0.2% 10.22 -32.5% 15.13

Overall

Change 2011 Change 2010

2012 was a solid year for Greene County real estate. Median prices edged up slightly to $230,000 (an increase of 1.5%) over 2011). In addition, sales increased by a respectable 4.4% to a total of 214 sales. However, year end inventory levels jumped fairly significantly to 255 units (+38.6%). We are seeing an increase in demand from NGIC and other government contractors over the last few months. Yet, with looming government budget cuts, that could negatively affect jobs and real estate in Greene in 2012. Contracts written in Q4 were off by 15.4% in 2012.

Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change

52

44

-15.4%

NestRealty.com

8 of 9

Louisa County

Average List Price 2012 $220,933 -0.3% $221,536 -12.1% $252,146

Average Sale Price $218,564 1.7% $214,878 -11.2% $241,980

Median Sale Price $183,000 0.9% $181,400 -15.6% $215,000

Avg Days on Market 88 -12.0% 100 -13.8% 116

Total Sales # 165 10.7% 149 -10.8% 167

Total Inventory 200 15.6% 173 -20.6% 218

Months of Inventory 14.28 23.9% 11.53 -52.4% 24.22

Overall

Change 2011 Change 2010

Due in large part to some 2012 success in Spring Creek and growth at Zion Crossroads, Louisa sales increased by 10.7% to 165 total sales. This comes off a 10.8% drop from 2010 to 2011. While median prices held relatively steady (+.9%), year end inventory levels and months of inventory in Louisa spiked over 2011. Total inventory was up 15.6% to 200 units and months of inventory rose 23.9% to 14.28 months. On a positive note, contracts written in Q4 were up 24.3% over 2011 numbers.

Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change

37

46

24.3%

Nelson County

Average List Price 2012 $279,935 -8.1% $304,479 -13.3% $351,018

Average Sale Price $258,650 -7.6% $280,014 -12.7% $320,682

Median Sale Price $227,900 1.3% $225,000 -13.5% $260,000

Avg Days on Market 216 10.2% 196 9.5% 179

Total Sales # 181 -1.6% 184 -6.1% 196

Total Inventory 313 -4.9% 329 -8.1% 358

Months of Inventory 12.52 -20.1% 15.66 -16.9% 18.84

Overall

Change 2011 Change 2010

Nelson County real estates roller coaster ride continued in 2012. Of all of the market segments, Nelson has been the most difficult to predict over the last 36 months. 2012 was a fairly strong year for Nelson. Total sales were down ever-so-slightly (-1.6%) to 181 total units sold. However, median prices inched upwards by 1.3% to $227,900. The most positive news of all in Nelson relates to inventory levels: total inventory fell by 4.9% and year end moths of inventory dropped dramatically (-20.1% to 12.52 months) for the second straight year. Good news continues for Nelson as Q4 contracts written were up 8.1% from Q4 2011.

Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change

62

67

8.1%

*Some statistics in this report come courtesy of the Charlottesville Area MLS as of 10/3/12.

NestRealty.com

9 of 9

You might also like