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5 YEAR TREND
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Attached homes and condominium sales were also strong in 2012. Total sales jumped by 15.3% (from 570 to 657). While the median price of attached and condos did fall by 1%, total inventory and months of inventory fell dramatically. Total units for sale at the end of 2012 as compared to 2011 are 22.4% lower (342 in 2012 as compared to 441 at the end of 2011). In addition, months of inventory levels were also much lower at 7.12 months - thats a 41.9% reduction as compared to the 12.25 months at the end of 2011. Overall, the health of the Charlottesville MSA real estate market was vastly improved in 2012.
Average Sale Price $341,653 1.7% $335,818 -5.2% $354,211 Average Sale Price $210,865 2.4% $205,825 -9.9% $228,479
Median Sale Price $278,692 3.2% $270,000 -3.6% $280,000 Median Sale Price $189,000 -1.0% $190,950 -10.2% $212,750
Price per Square Foot $135.00 -2.9% $139.00 -4.1% $145.00 Price per Square Foot $140.00 -0.7% $141.00 -4.1% $147.00
Avg Days on Market 108 -6.9% 116 4.5% 111 Avg Days on Market 111 3.7% 107 0.0% 107
Total Sales 2020 15.1% 1755 -0.6% 1765 Total Sales 657 15.3% 570 -1.0% 576
Total Inventory 1396 -4.2% 1457 -10.9% 1636 Total Inventory 342 -22.4% 441 -5.8% 468
Months of Inventory 8.89 -4.7% 9.33 -23.0% 12.11 Months of Inventory 7.12 -41.9% 12.25 25.6% 9.75
Single Family
Attached / Condo
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5 YEAR TREND
500
400
300
200
100
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Single family home sales in Albemarle were up 15% over 2011 (852 vs. 741) . In addition, median prices edged up slightly to $350,000, representing a modest increase of 1.2%. Total days on market for Albemarle single family homes also improved to just 102 DOM: an 8.9% improvement from 2011. Attached homes in Albemarle also had a strong year with a 9.4% increase in sales over 2011 (304 vs. 278). Median prices moved upwards by 5.2% to $232,500. Finally, contracts written in Q4 were up for single family (+22.9%) and attached (+35.7%).
Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market
Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market 250,625 247,153 232,562 4.7% 2.8% 1.2% 93 13.4% 82 93 2.2% 91
Single Family
Attached
19.5%
Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market 2012 170,139 161,676 118,000 -21.5% -20.0% -16.0% 101 -22.3% 130 101 4.1% 97
Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Single Family Attached Condos 144 56 20 Q4 2012 177 76 16 Change 22.9% 35.7% -20.0%
Condos
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13%
10%
9%
29 North Crozet
Rio Ivy
Earlysville Keswick
Southside Barracks
Single Family
Attached
Condos
In 2012, the Crozet area was the strongest selling segment of Albemarle as it made up almost 1 in 5 total sales at 19%. The strength of new home sales in Old Trail and Wickham Pond undoubtedly aided Crozet in achieving 243 sales. Keswick also performed well with 217 sales (17%), due in large part to a resurgence of sales in Glenmore. Southside (16%), 29 North (13%), and Rio (13%) rounded out the top 5 most popular areas in Albemarle for 2012. Two out of every three 2012 sales were single family homes. Attached homes made up 24% of the Albemarle market , while condos were 10%.
Albemarle County Percent of Sales by Price Range
2012 39% 43% 12% 3% 3%
2011
42%
42%
11%
3% 3%
2010
37%
46%
10%
3%
4%
2009 0%
45% 75%
12%
4%
4% 100%
0-250K
250K-500K
500K-750K
750-1M
1M+
The price distribution of 2012 sales stayed in line relative to the previous three years. 39% of all homes sold in Albemarle in 2012 were under $250,000. This is a slight drop from 2011, but consistent with previous years. 43% of homes sold were between $250,000 and $500,000, a slight bump from 2011 (42%). 18% of all sales were above $500,000, which is almost identical to 2011 (17%), 2010 (17%), and 2009 (20%). Its a positive trend not to see any major fluctuations in these price distribution segments - giving us more confidence that were in the midst of a sustainable recovery.
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5 YEAR TREND
200
150
100
50
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Charlottesville condominium sales were also particularly positive in 2012 with an increase of 15.8% over 2011 (110 vs. 95). The final developer sales at Walker Square undoubtedly helped condo sales improve. Price reductions at Walker Square also led to an overall condo median price drop of 2.3%. There seems to be a bit of a shortage of condos heading into 2013: dont be surprised if sales drop, but median prices start to inch upwards. Attached home sales in the City were off by 5.7% this past year, due in large part to a shortage of desirable inventory.
Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market
Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market 196,487 187,280 174,000 -1.3% -2.4% -6.5% 110 -21.4% 140 110 -5.2% 116
Single Family
Attached
Average Average Median Avg Days List Price Sale Price Sale Price on Market 2012 199,065 190,965 171,000 -27.8% -30.0% -22.7% 108 42.1% 76 108 -1.8% 110
Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Single Family Attached Condos 56 9 18 Q4 2012 63 5 18 Change 12.50% -44.44% 0.00%
Condos
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19%
21%
22%
Clark Johnson
Greenbrier Venable
Single Family
Attached
Condos
The Johnson (20%), Burnley Moran (21%), and Venable (19%) districts made up 60% of City sales in 2012. These ratios fall in line with the previous few years. As expected, more than 7 out of every ten home sales in the City were single family homes. The City of Charlottesville is made up of an overwhelmingly high percentage of single family homes. Condominium sales totaled 22%, while 7% of the sales were attached homes.
2012
54%
37%
4%
2% 2%
2011
56%
35%
6%
1%1%
2010
53%
38%
6%
2% 2%
2009 0%
42% 75%
4%
2%1% 100%
0-250K
250K-500K
500K-750K
750-1M
1M+
Similar to Albemarle County, the price distribution of sales in the City of Charlottesville fell in line with the previous three years. 54% of all sales were below $250,000, which represents a slight drop from 2011 but an increase from 2010 and 2009. 37% of all sales were between $250,000 and $500,000. While there were more higher end sales in the City in 2012 than in previous years, sales over $500,000 made up a similar percentage of the total market.
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Fluvanna County
Overall
Fluvanna sent some mixed messages in 2012. On a positive note, after an almost 14% drop in sales from 2010 to 2011, sales jumped by 28.9% to 339 total sales in 2012. On the flip side, median prices fell again to $181,500 (-8.1%). In addition, months of inventory at the end of 2012 increased slightly from 11.11 to 12.2 months. However, lower prices seem to have spurred demand in Fluvanna as contracts written in Q4 were up 22.4% from 2011. We expect these lower prices in Fluvanna to continue to draw more buyers in 2013.
Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change
76
93
22.4%
Greene County
Overall
2012 was a solid year for Greene County real estate. Median prices edged up slightly to $230,000 (an increase of 1.5%) over 2011). In addition, sales increased by a respectable 4.4% to a total of 214 sales. However, year end inventory levels jumped fairly significantly to 255 units (+38.6%). We are seeing an increase in demand from NGIC and other government contractors over the last few months. Yet, with looming government budget cuts, that could negatively affect jobs and real estate in Greene in 2012. Contracts written in Q4 were off by 15.4% in 2012.
Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change
52
44
-15.4%
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Louisa County
Overall
Due in large part to some 2012 success in Spring Creek and growth at Zion Crossroads, Louisa sales increased by 10.7% to 165 total sales. This comes off a 10.8% drop from 2010 to 2011. While median prices held relatively steady (+.9%), year end inventory levels and months of inventory in Louisa spiked over 2011. Total inventory was up 15.6% to 200 units and months of inventory rose 23.9% to 14.28 months. On a positive note, contracts written in Q4 were up 24.3% over 2011 numbers.
Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change
37
46
24.3%
Nelson County
Overall
Nelson County real estates roller coaster ride continued in 2012. Of all of the market segments, Nelson has been the most difficult to predict over the last 36 months. 2012 was a fairly strong year for Nelson. Total sales were down ever-so-slightly (-1.6%) to 181 total units sold. However, median prices inched upwards by 1.3% to $227,900. The most positive news of all in Nelson relates to inventory levels: total inventory fell by 4.9% and year end moths of inventory dropped dramatically (-20.1% to 12.52 months) for the second straight year. Good news continues for Nelson as Q4 contracts written were up 8.1% from Q4 2011.
Contracts Written
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change
62
67
8.1%
*Some statistics in this report come courtesy of the Charlottesville Area MLS as of 10/3/12.
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