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Index .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 Hegemony Procurement 1NC .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Procurement Solvency................................................................................................................................... 3 Procurement Solvency................................................................................................................................... 4 Procurement Solvency................................................................................................................................... 5 Procurement Solvency – Terrorism ............................................................................................................... 6 Procurement I/L – Overstretch ....................................................................................................................... 7 Procurement – A2: Cut Spending .................................................................................................................. 8 Officer Training 1NC ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Officer Training Solvency............................................................................................................................. 10 Proliferation Israel 1NC.................................................................................................................................................... 11 Israel Solvency ............................................................................................................................................ 12 Israel Solvency – Iran .................................................................................................................................. 13 Israel Solvency – Saudi Arabia .................................................................................................................... 14 Israel – Uniqueness ..................................................................................................................................... 16 Fuel Bank 1NC ............................................................................................................................................ 17 Fuel Bank Solvency ..................................................................................................................................... 18 Fuel Bank Solvency ..................................................................................................................................... 19 Fuel Bank Solvency – Russia ...................................................................................................................... 20 Fuel Bank Solvency – Russia ...................................................................................................................... 21 A2: Fuel Bank CP ........................................................................................................................................ 22 Iran Sanctions 1NC...................................................................................................................................... 23 NPT Fails ..................................................................................................................................................... 24 NPT Fails ..................................................................................................................................................... 25 NPT Fails ..................................................................................................................................................... 26
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The United States federal government should fully fund modernization of Department of Defense equipment and weapon systems purchased from private contractors. Solves hegemony – we’re nearing the tipping point when our military becomes obsolete
Holmes and Eaglen in 2007(Kim, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, and Director, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies and Mackenzie, Research Fellow for National Security Studies, Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation, ―Military chiefs sound warnings of a hollow force‖ JR) Why else would both the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the chief of staff of the Air Force call for spending at least 4 percent of our gross domestic product on defense, and two members of Congress introduce a joint resolution saying basically the same thing? Because they understand that,
unless we invest at least that much each year for five to 10 years in state-of-the-art technologies and platforms, our military will lose its fighting edge. The warning signs are there. Today,when the Army goes to war, it does so with a force designed to fight the Soviets in Europe, not asymmetric warfare in the desert. The U.S. Air Force has some 2,500 fewer aircraft today than in the late 1980s, and the U.S. Navy fleet has less than one-half the number of ships it did then. Many of our weapons and systems are worn out or, worse, obsolete. We are rapidly approaching the tipping point. A military ill-equipped for battle will suffer needless deaths. It's happened to our troops before, and it could happen again.
In 1950, some 400 young U.S. soldiers - many teenagers - watched a column of North Korean T-34 tanks advance. Only days before, these men had been on occupation duty in Japan.
Wet weather knocked out their World War II-era radios and soaked their sneakers(there hadn't been enough combat boots at the supply depot to go around).Each soldier carried only 120 rounds of rifle ammunition and a dozen were armed with Howitzers and "bazooka" rocket launchers. These weapons were effective during World War II, but they were no match for the heavily armored T-34s.
Nevertheless, they were ordered to engage the enemy. Gen. Douglas MacArthur said an "arrogant display of strength" was all it would take to drive back the "barefoot Asian army" of North Korea. Not quite. The men suffered 181 casualties. This disaster was a failure of Washington leadership after World War II. Congress
drastically slashed defense spending and, as a consequence, the military was simply unable to prepare for the next war.This is not an isolated incident.Today, our military faces similar obstacles. The number, size and duration of deployments have increased dramatically since the Cold War, yet defense spending remains historically low. Take the procurement budget: During the Reagan buildup (fiscal years 1981
through 1985), we an average of $131 billion a year. During the post-Cold War procurement holiday, mean defense spending was $71 billion between 1990 and 1997, and in the war on terrorism, the mean has been $93 billion for 2002 through 2011.
the U. American power is an important stabilizing force in the world . if Congress fails to get entitlements under control.called the "4% for Freedom Solution" by the Heritage Foundation -. were due at least in part to the Reagan defense buildup of the 1980s. March 5. America will remain a force to be reckoned with. there will be more than enough money for defense. then funding defense on the cheap will not save the country from bankruptcy.and only the reality and perception of American power can deter them from breaking out. the service chiefs have already reduced force structure to dangerous levels.President Bush's recent defense-budget submission is the best news for American security in 15 years. Second. The 4% for Freedom Solution would also have a positive impact on our long-term fiscal position. and maintaining defense spending at no less than 4 percent of GDP thereafter. even in years where threats do not seem immediate. spends only 3. instead of fighting each other for money every year. Total spending on defense health care.S.in order to man all its vessels. That is far lower than during the Cold War.S. President Bush's proposed double-digit increase is welcome news. There never will be a war that ends all wars. it would focus debate about the deficit squarely where it belongs: on the entitlement programs. But it would not have been necessary if the Clinton administration had not cut defense spending in the 1990s. the more skills it demands. the dangers remain -.would send the clearest possible message to America's friends and enemies that. The Democratic leaders should fully fund it. Even a small positive impact on the economy would more than pay for the additional investment in military capability . for example. of realizing that the U.8 percent of its GDP on the core defense budget.S. Imagine the impact on China and North Korea. could still recapitalize and sustain its military strength by enacting the $34 billion increase I mentioned earlier. How much would it be worth economically. consistent funding over time. history has shown that. and skilled people cost money. They could budget in a way that reduces costs over the life of new systems. increased from $17. Even a glance at the government's budget shows that growth in entitlement programs. Precisely because of budget pressures in the past. too. or if the first George W. Nor can the money come from reducing the compensation we pay our servicemen and women. and almost a full percentage point less than was spent even during the Carter years. and the administration deserves credit for proposing it. not in defense or other discretionary spending. Apart from the fact that Congress would and should never reduce compensation in the middle of a war. Capital would flow back into the defense industrial base.S. America's economy is so powerful that even after years of underfunding military procurement. For some purposes. the 4% for Freedom Solution would help reduce risk within the international economy and promote economic growth at home and abroad. for example. defense policy is foreign policy. Bush administration had more robustly funded the needs that were clearly apparent even in 2001. assuring sufficient funding for defense would promote more efficient use of defense dollars. can guarantee an increased and highly capable naval presence in the Western Pacific for years to come.. but large swings in defense funding always cost the taxpayer more than solid. including the non-Department of Defense expenditures for national security. whatever happens in Iraq. National Review. by using only a small fraction of its economic resources. The more modern the military becomes." our leaders can show that for once they have learned the lessons of the past. There is no such thing as a "grunt" in today's military.Finally. JR) is no huge pot of money currently in the defense budget from which the necessary increase can be funded.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Procurement Solvency Defense spending key to econ and hegemony The reality is that there Talent 7 (Jim Talent is a distinguished fellow in military affairs at the Heritage Foundation. It is true that military strength has its price. That is why the Navy is "cross-decking" sailors -. the services must hire and retain high-quality people. The Reagan precedent is also the answer to those who are concerned about the short-term impact of the 4% for Freedom Solution on the deficit. 3 . but as Jimmy Carter found out. It cannot come from reducing the number of service personnel because the military is already too small. By adopting the "4% for Freedom Solution. remember.helicoptering them from a ship returning home to one that is steaming out to sea -.S. If Congress reforms entitlement spending. House of Representatives. Military”. The truth is that spending on personnel benefits is much more likely to increase than decrease. for example. First. More: “The crying need for a bigger U. by reassuring the financial markets about American strength. 2007. WE CAN DO IT The good news is that robust and consistent funding of the military is fully within America's capability. to reduce the risk that China invades Taiwan. He served in the U. there is a price to be paid for weakness.5 billion in 2000 to $37 billion in 2006. poses the real long-term threat to solvency. or Kim Jong Il is tempted to use his nuclear capability? The peace and prosperity of the 1990s. This program -. and the service chiefs could attempt what in Washington has heretofore been unthinkable: long-term planning. Currently the U. or maneuvering each budget cycle just to keep vital programs aliv e.
Rather than fear supply competition. “Keeping our military strong” JR) of globalization. to ensure our troops always have the best equipment available. As proof. the income of its workers -. So it's no surprise that the Department of Defense is often looking outside of America's borders to meet our defense needs. We interviewed experts in military affairs and manufacturing and held forums with members of government and academia. This raises some logical questions: Is globalization good for the military? Are we truly safe when so many critical systems and components are manufactured overseas? To get the answers. But there's never an incentive to make better products or ones that cost less. because Spencer in 2005(Jack. innovation and competition are sacrificed to maintain guaranteed supply. America's war-fighting institutions have consistently achieved better results when they have relied on the free market to decide where and how products should be made. The plant will continue to receive appropriated funding as long as it produces articles that meet government specifications. Nuclear Energy Policy. The plant continues to receive funding as long as it produces articles that meet government specifications. including inefficient practices. high prices and limited choices for the military. The Heritage Foundation spent more than a year studying the military industrial base.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Procurement Solvency Buying weapons from private contractors solves quality and costs Today's American military is stronger and covers ground more quickly than ever before.In both cases."The president's helicopter fleet is made by a foreign manufacturer. when a government subsidizes or guarantees the existence of a manufacturing facility and -. But the fact is.the Department of Defense has no incentive to make further investments in the plant's facility or people. One way to encourage competition would be to create contests that reward those who develop critical technology. the country might appear to be safer if the government controlled all the facilities involved in the military supply chain. fewer and fewer products are actually "Made in USA. That may seem surprising at first blush. the military needs to encourage it.Congress has tried repeatedly over the years to steer defense contracts in directions that would supposedly shore up or expand America's military-industrial capacity. Yet these efforts have nearly always interrupted the natural tides of the market and led to unintended consequences. the plant's employees have no incentive to consider their global competition. 4 . Heritage Foundation. But.in some cases. After all. We found that the best way to preserve our military advantage over potential foes is to take advantage of the free market. consider what happens when the government owns a defense-related manufacturing facility and guarantees the income of its employees. for example. While the military can count on a steady stream of products. In the same way. Research Fellow. whilethe Army and Marine Corps lease Australian catamarans .
better off than in 1981. But because of decisions over the last 15 years -. Without a substantial increase in procurement spending. and it is important to understand clearly what is at stake. military is grave.) America is now reaching a decision point similar to the one Reagan faced in 1981.org/About/Staff/T/Jim-Talent. The volunteer force is a proven. and successful model.S.the U. The progress of the international order toward peace and democracy depends on American power. in one respect. where he specializes in military readiness and welfare reform issues.S.heritage. America is protected by the finest servicemen and women in history. 5 . 2007. and while the basket of Western foreign policy contains many tools. Judged by this standard. what underpins them all is a U.an increase measured not in billions but in tens of billions of dollars per year above current estimates -. the Navy and Marine Corps may well be too small. Talent 2007 (Jim. mature. the situation facing the U. military that the world knows is capable of defeating threats swiftly and effectively. America is the defender of freedom in the world and therefore always a prime target for those who hate freedom.driven more by budgetary than by military considerations -. February 20.S.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Procurement Solvency Now is the key time – modernization requires a quick and sustained increase http://www.the Army is too small. will be unable to modernize its forces to the degree necessary to preserve its security with the necessary margin of safety. America's armed forces are. beginning now and sustained over the next five to ten years -. and much of the equipment in all the services is too old and increasingly unreliable. Jim Talent is a Distinguished Fellow at The Heritage Foundation.
or attempt to use these weapons -. cannot focus on the threat of Islamic extremists alone.org/Research/Commentary/2008/01/Laying-the-Groundwork-for-a-Military-Victory) George W. Our progress there in the last year remains a vital issue. A damage-limitation strategy would be designed to minimize the likelihood of a successful weapons of mass destruction attack on the U. There are two other broad requirements of the damagelimitation strategy that can be met only through modernized general purposes forces possessing broader capabilities. just as Korea and Vietnam were important battles in the Cold War.M. It ought to be called a "damage limitation" program. Experts at The Heritage Foundation think it can be done for 4 percent -. and its friends and allies. Yet the greater war against terrorism will continue long after he's out of office. That. Such a pro-active stance would be a welcome change from our Cold War policy of accepting vulnerability by relying on a strategy of retaliation (mutually assured destruction) in case of attack. as he prepares to deliver his final State of the Union address. and the American people deserve to hear about it.9 percent appropriated this year.slightly more than the 3.S. This isn't to say he shouldn't mention Iraq. general purpose forces must be capable of projecting power to distant regions in order to defend access to those resources. The first is to prevent a major power threat to Europe. This increase must allow the military to recover from the shortfall and put it on the path to sustained investments for new weapons and equipment.S. we're forced to spend more today to buy the equipment the military needs. one that would allow tens of thousands of Americans to leave Iraq. other nations are less likely to attempt to acquire nuclear. 2008.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Procurement Solvency – Terrorism Modernization key to winning the War on Terror Spring ’08 (Baker SpringF. Iraq is a critical battle in a long war. The Air Force has been forced to scale back dramatically its purchasing of F-22 Raptor tactical fighters. Bush is in the last year of his presidency. http://www. U. That leaves less available for buying current weapons systems. our military needs to field the correct mix of offensive and defensive forces. 6 . For example. For example. President Bush should use the speech to make a solemn pledge to the American people that the military investments he is advocating are necessary to protect them and their families. Our country can't afford to hollow out the military when we need it to win the war against Islamic extremists. How much will the total bill be? Well. The Army has been forced to extend the production time for its Future Combat System by five years. biological and chemical weapons -. which is an essential component of the damage-limitation strategy's central goal of providing protection to the American people and allies. in the air. however. And he should point out that we need to invest today to have the military we'll require in the years ahead.even though constructing two per year could have reduced the unit cost to $2 billion per boat. America's military must also be capable of protecting vital trade routes. First. Sustained investments in the military are urgent and necessary to achieve ultimate victory. Because we didn't purchase enough weapons systems during that decade. America's general purpose forces. of course. This requires enough conventional military power to counter the organized armed forces of aggressive countries. achieves a swift military and political victory in Iraq. Bush should make it clear that our military spending is low compared to what it's been other times we've been at war. he needs to address the requirements for national defense beyond Iraq. January 28. Bush must remind us this isn't the time for a "peace dividend. Most importantly.S. The president also needs to articulate a sound national security strategy.if their attack is likely to fail. In this case. What President Bush must do. The second requirement is to maintain access to vital resources and conduits for global trade. Kirby Research Fellow in National Security Policy. we're still rebuilding from the "procurement holiday" forced on the military in the 1990s. is tie his explanation of the progress in Iraq to the broader requirements for military preparedness. After all. Meanwhile. whether at sea. That's where the State of the Union speech comes in. the Navy has been forced to reduce construction of Virginia-class submarines to one per year -. This president ought to leave a very different military to his successor than Bill Clinton left for him. military analysts at the American Legion suggest it would take a sustained investment of 5 percent of GDP each year. Unfortunately. eastern Asia or the Persian Gulf.heritage. the broader war will continue. It's slated to obtain just 183 F-22s despite its requirement for 381. in space or in cyberspace. it will cost $8 billion more than is currently planned per year for the Navy to buy the new ships it needs and $3 billion per year for the Marine Corps to recruit and train thousands of necessary new warriors. We must maintain the conventional forces necessary to go after Islamic extremists anywhere in the world. will cost money. This would explain how he intends to protect the American people (as well as friends and allies around the world) from attack. But it's time to broaden the nation's perspective regarding national defense. though. Our recent focus on Iraq is understandable. So." Even if the U.
Afghanistan or the Persian Gulf . Yes. Peter Brookes. Korea: A Korean contingency would normally call for significant U.and sea-lift capability to support a full-scale invasion of Taiwan . It's hard to believe.000 South Korean troops now "in country" could fight a holding action until the U. But that doesn't mean Uncle Sam can't handle another fight if necessary .forces not deployed to Iraq. 2007. with the way things stand.000 American and 650." Legit concerns. It's encouraging to adversaries. The United States would quickly add naval and air assets to throw the fight in our direction. a China-Taiwan dust-up and another Korean-peninsula war. nuclear facilities and retaliatory forces such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. But the 28. aren't stretched as thin as our ground forces. China doesn't have the air.S. F-15 and F-16 strike fighters would drop GPS-guided JDAM and gravity bombs on Iranian air defenses.that is.and theater missile defenses . So is their equipment after four years of wear and tear in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran: An attack would likely be executed by U.thanks to the Navy and Air Force. This high ground-force operational tempo ("ops tempo") has led some to declare our military nearly broken. not ground forces (but don't count out special ops). is a shell of what it was back in the days when Pyongyang was getting military aid from the Soviet Union. The preponderance.are constantly being developed and improved. http://www. Congress needs to act quickly. incapable of handling another major conflict . the three conflicts most likely to involve America are a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. concur.or airborne invasion forces as they cross the strait. counter air or missile strikes and vanquish sea.S. of course. This isn't good for our national security . But. Finger-pointing makes for good political sport. ever reluctant to complain. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Raising and maintaining our armed forces is its constitutional duty.many on multiple tours. but U.S. cavalry .org/Research/Commentary/2007/03/The-Next-Threats-Military-Able-But-Stretched) The U.and understandably so. But at the same time.yet. lacking in what military planners call "strategic depth. There's plenty of blame to go around.anddangerous. they could all be fought using heavy doses of sea and air power. dropping bombs and firing cruise missiles at Iran's nuclear sites. We're looking down the barrel of a The Army and Marines are finally adding troops after 1990s cutbacks. ground forces. Fortunately. a Chinese attack on Taiwan must navigate the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait. while the Navy and Air Force can respond. The Army/Marine ops tempo should give us pause. These . air and sea strikes.which.S.S. The Navy would chime in with carrier-based aviation and surface ships/submarines in the Persian Gulf and the North Arabian Sea. South Korea's ground forces alone are more than a match for the North Korean People's Army . The Marines. we shouldn't feel comfortable "hollow force" if trends in defense spending and ops tempo for all services don't change.S. Anything less than giving our military the wherewithal to take on the challenges to our national security is unacceptable . fortunately. air defenses and naval assets. objective would be to protect the political status quo. has been our "ground-pounding" soldiers and Marines . but let me explain: Outside of Iraq/Afghanistan. which. using air and naval forces to break Chinese naval blockades. Air Force B-2 bombers and F-117.or fair to our fighting men and women. it would be tough. China's defense buildup and recent Taiwanese rhetoric about "independence" keeps this possibility at the front of war planners' minds. but with the arguable exception of Korea.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Procurement I/L – Overstretch The troops are exhausted – expansion of the military key to prevent collapse -AM Brooks ’07 (March 26. But we're not at "mission impossible" . our active-duty and reserve ground forces are tired . The U. Not minor military matters. 7 . China-Taiwan: While the chance of a conflict across the Taiwan Strait is remote.so it would have to rely on ballistic missiles and sea and air power. Sure. despite the large budgets since 9/11. but fixing the problem instead of assigning blame is what counts. Missile defenses are already deployed for dealing with North Korea's long-range missile and nuclear capability. while still dangerous. Peter Schoomaker has issued strong warnings to Congress about repeat deployments and their toll on the army's health and welfare. military has now made over 2 million individual deployments to Iraq and or Afghanistan.arrived. defense spending remains at historic lows as a percentage of gross domestic product.heritage. the Navy and Air Force are cutting personnel in a "rob Peter to pay Paul" strategy to finance needed weapons systems.
To ensure that resources are allocated wisely. This is particularly important given that a flat defense budget is really a declining defense budget because the cost growth of personnel and O&M typically outpaces inflation by 3 percent to 8 percent annually. Congress should sustain a defense topline that outpaces inflation for at least three years after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan subside.S. Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies. Closing the gap between the Defense Department‘s modernization requirements and the funding allocated by Congress will require honestly assessing the underlying causes and repudiating failed solutions. as major acquisition reform successes. Congress should specifically reject defense program cuts masked as acquisition reform. including the C-17 cargo aircraft and the alternate engine for the Joint Strike Fighter. Furthermore. Through its annual budget resolutions. Congress should take steps designed to alleviate each of the budget pressures identified. when current operations wind down. Congress should: Smooth the defense budget peaks and valleys through more predictable outlays. but reducing the budget at that time will prevent the armed forces from resetting and recapitalizing effectively. The Pentagon will also need to broaden military training and modernize aging systems with next-generation programs. JR) Eaglen in 2010 (Mackenzie. It will also expose servicemembers to greater risks on the battlefield and further reduce the military‘s capabilities. Instead of temporary measures to reduce today‘s outlays. Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn touted the cancellation of seven major programs. Furthermore. Killing programs is a simple way to show immediate dollar savings.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Procurement – A2: Cut Spending Cutting programs doesn’t solve long term – the military needs comprehensive reform ―U. 8 . predictable defense budget to improve overall readiness levels and develop coherent programming plans. cutting current investment in next-generation systems will simply balloon future bills. June 7. In March. Defense Spending: The Mismatch Between Plans and Resources‖. taking into account competing demands for the marginal defense dollar and prioritizing the maintenance and improvement of core defense capabilities. Members should pursue this even though it will likely require adding funding to the President‘s annual budget request. Relieving the strains of wartime deployments will give the Pentagon greater flexibility in a stable. Members should pursue true reforms that will restructure troubled programs and restore long-term efficiencies. Congress will likely be pressured to cut defense spending. The Heritage Foundation. Research Fellow for National Security Studies. but it will not change how the military actually buys equipment or address underlying problems.
The service's Cold War practice of linking promotion and education proved a tragic mistake. Ph. The war tax. the military should seek as broad a range of graduate experiences as possible as a hedge against unexpected operational and strategic requirements. can gain the same critical analysis skills from a political science course as from an advanced engineering course. The obstacles to making the military learn more effectively are largely cultural in origin. all the parts of the nation that contribute the war effort. for example. 2008. Perhaps the most difficult lesson learned was what the real scope of professional military education should be. Virtually any graduate program would suffice. This model is wrong on two counts.heritage. 9 . The armed forces have also tried hard. Only the military delays advanced education until its leaders are in their mid-40s. not just an elite group within the profession. the Pentagon's annual ritual of raiding institutional budgets to pay for military operations until supplemental appropriation are approved. they try. In the present military education system. inappropriate tasks and goals. http://www. and responsiveness. That has to change. At the same time. diverse officer and Non-Commissioned Officer (NCO) corps. In the future. not just the best and the brightest destined for generalship. Saving professional military education from the relentless budgetary pressures to fund other military priorities is continuing challenge. homeland security and other critical national security tasks. required at many levels of command. the military schools in all the services from basic training to the war college's have preformed yeoman's services trying to reorient education courses to give warriors the skills. win wars. and ineffective operations. plucking staff out of stateside schools for staff jobs overseas. have a role here as well. however. The old adage that the military's job is to "win the nation's war" was just stupid. particularly in regard to joint education. And. despite the demands to field a combat force. These are sophisticated leader and staff proficiencies. What or where officers are learning is less important than the types of skills that they are developing--skills that will serve them well in a wide spectrum of situations and conflicts. and coalition operations.org/Research/Commentary/2008/07/On-Teaching-War-The-Future-ofOn the one hand." not only the capacity to understand other nations and cultures. Officers and NCOs should have a wide variety of options and opportunities. In addition. When American forces prepare to undertake postconflict missions. To start with. American professional military education has never been under greater stress. Solves hegemony Professional-Military-Education) -AM Carafano ’08 (July 31. The result is that most operations lack cohesion. Institutionalizing the lessons of the Long War. to make them mirror traditional military activities. The primary goal of military education is to teach officers how to think. James Carafano. flexibility. Such an approach can result in the misapplication of resources. Reserve soldiers serve in staffs at every level on every battlefield and they need to be educated to the exact same standards as their active duty counterparts. Folding the lessons learned from the Long War into the professional military education system is another. changing military culture could well require a set of initiatives that cut across the services' education. the skills needed to conduct effective post-conflict tasks require "soft power. however. career professional development patterns. Virtually every other career field provides "graduate level" education to members in their mid-20s to 30s. interagency. they have experimented with distributed learning and other techniques and technologies to deliver education to the field. requires a very high-degree of professional military competence. will require both money and change. First. An officer. On the other hand.. requiring men and women at all levels and throughout the force to exercise complex leadership and management tasks. a relentless operational tempo that leaves little time to send the right people to schools at the right time. as well as ignoring the role of non-governmental agencies. "winning the peace" is part of winning the war as well. In fact. much of the edification relevant to building these attributes is provided at the war colleges to a relatively elite group being groomed for senior leader and joint duty positions. It turns out in the new world disorder. The military's role in warfighting was always unquestioned. and other interagency operations (where soldiers have to work hand-in-hand with a variety of civilian agencies). Second.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Officer Training 1NC The United States federal government should require and fund graduate school attendance for the senior officer corps of its armed forces. These courses train the military's finest planners. Thinking skills are the best preparation for ambiguity and uncertainty. This reflected the military's traditional approach to post-conflict missions.D. the armed forces largely eschew integrated joint. homeland security. Therefore. I think these skills are needed by most leaders and staffs in both the active and reserve components. the attribute most needed by military officers is the critical thinking skills that come from a graduate education program. Neglecting the professional education of the reserves. Each armed service also need special schools specifically designed to teach the operational concepts and practices relevant to post-conflict missions. The services already have advanced schools (such as the Marine Corps School for Advanced Warfighting) for instructing in the operational arts at their staff colleges. and outsourcing teaching and thinking to private sector companies are undermining the world's finest military education system. and many parts of the nation. including the military. Sustaining the education system is largely a question of maintaining adequate defense budgets--a major battle that will have to be fought in the years ahead. this education comes too late in an officer or NCO's career. Compounding the ambiguous state of teaching the military craft is a long list of lessons learned from the first years of the Long War. which have always been ad hoc and haphazard. but its responsibilities in peace operations are both controversial and poorly understood. Post-Cold War military operations have been highly decentralized. the military should use the free market. to get more leaders to civilian graduate schools to learn the non-military technical and critical thinking skills required to complement warfighting knowledge. Nations. interagency. and multinational environment. and organization. was a painful lesson as well. The curriculum in these courses should be expanded to include post-conflict missions. everybody. as much as possible. A requirement for educating a large pool of military officers will create a vast new demand. and attributes they need to fight the Long War. To build a well-educated. but also the ability to work in a joint. knowledge.
heritage. The Kathryn andShelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies and Director. Our leaders. Yet. despite the fact that the U. October 11. Critical thinking will be. 2005. critical. 2005 Increasingly. Quick judgments to counter rapidly changing circumstances will be essential. Heritage Expert) http://www. like our enemies.will be unavoidable. well.org/Research/Commentary/2005/10/Military-Education-Needs-Reform. James Karafano&AlaneKochems. the training these officers now receive has changed little since the end of the Cold War. 10 .from weapons of mass destruction. military education and training programs offered scant preparation for the postwar challenges in Iraq. will direct self-sufficient "cells" of soldiers as they pursue their independent tasks. our on-the-ground leadership will be bound together by shared ideals and objectives. but little else. Encounters with uncommon and unexpected threats -. military has conducted an average of one peacekeeping.S. For example. in essence. battles were planned and capabilities were fully anticipated. when enemies were known. peacemaking or post-conflict operation every two years since the end of the Cold War.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Officer Training Solvency American Military Officers undertrained-military education reform key.(Ph. Deputy Director.D. We continue to train and promote officers on the basis of their ability to meet challenges they almost certainly never will encounter on a battlefield. unexpected capabilities or surprise attacks from insurgents and terrorists -.
But he also pointed out that Israel "enjoys the unconditional support of the U. violated it. "I urge those countries that are currently outside the treaty regime to accede to it as soon as possible. 11 . singled out only two countries by name: Iran and North Korea. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Speaking on behalf of the 118-member Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). 189 countries have acceded to the treaty. Pakistan and Israel. which is not even comparable to any crime committed throughout the history." as it also jeopardises the implementation of the 1995 resolution calling for the creation of a nuclear-weapons-free zone (NWFZ) in the Middle East. Israel has also implicitly triggered the threat of a nuclear arms race of "a catastrophic regional and international potential" thereby jeopardising the NPT regime in its entirety.N. would affect the coming generations and its negative impacts would continue for centuries. Solves prolif and a new Middle East arms race <http://ipsnews. member states . accusing it of stockpiling hundreds of nuclear warheads. North Korea acceded to the treaty. has been treated as a political sacred cow. The resulting radiation. But he stopped short of making any references to Israel. Security Council: the United States. Natalegawa warned. "And even more shameful is the threat to use or to use such weapons. UN Bureau Chief & IPS Regional Director. "Israel. China and Russia. which is aimed at halting the spread of these devastating armaments. Israel has refused to accede to that request. Still. as well. and the placement of all its nuclear facilities under comprehensive safeguards by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). CJ As the only Middle Eastern country armed with nuclear weapons.N." said Ahmadinejad. Secretary-General Ban Ki. echoing the views of the largest single political coalition at the United Nations.asp?idnews=51300>." ISP (2010): n. But on Monday an overwhelming majority of U. India or Pakistan. Worse still. Web.moon. "The nuclear bomb is a fire against humanity rather than a weapon for defence. Iran Targeted at Nuke Non-Proliferation Meet. Israel Deen. The three undeclared nuclear powers are India.wanted the defiant Jewish state to come clean with its nuclear weapons programme and sign the NPT. Ahmadinejad did not spare Israel.net/news. He urged Tehran "to comply fully with Security Council resolutions and cooperate fully with the IAEA" and called upon North Korea to help achieve a "verifiable denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula". The month-long conference. He accused the Jewish state of having waged many wars in the region and continuing to threaten the people and nations of the region "with terror and invasion". it is rather disgusting and shameful. who declared that disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation are among his "top priorities". he warned. including the five declared nuclear powers. France. Thalif‘10. which was opened for signature back in July 1968. and later withdrew. he said. Britain. and receives. Israel. government and its allies. whose country is accused of trying to develop nuclear weapons: a charge he has flatly denied.N. "This situation is unsustainable. he pointed out. pag. said Natalegawa. the only head of state at the conference. has also unleashed risks associated with the operation of "unsafeguarded nuclear facilities and activities of unknown safety standards"." he said.S. "The possession of nuclear bombs is not a source of pride. the necessary assistance to develop its nuclear weapons programme"." he declared. which are not parties to the NPT. said the sole function of the nuclear weapon is to annihilate all living beings and destroy the environment. Speaking at the opening session Monday. one whose weapons programmes have not been publicly challenged either by the United States or Western powers. U. But so far. will take stock of the successes and failures of an international treaty aimed at halting the spread of nuclear weapons and perhaps ultimately eliminating all nuclear weapons from the world's military arsenals. Today. The 2000 NPT Review Conference reaffirmed the necessity of Israel's accession to the NPT.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Israel 1NC Israel should substantially reduce the size of its nuclear arsenal and sign the Non Proliferation Treaty. which are also the five permanent members of the U. Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said the fact that Israel has refused to sign and ratify the NPT has resulted in the continued exposure of non-nuclear weapon states of the region to nuclear threats by the only country possessing these weapons of mass destruction. which runs through May 28. Taking a righteous stand on nuclear weapons." without identifying the three countries by name. The treaty. 16 Jul 2010. has come under review every five years.118 out of 192 .
"Israel: Iran sanctions a good start . said following the Security Council vote.‖ she said. accused Security Council members of a ―politically motivated‖ vote. ―Israel is the only country in the region who holds nuclear weapons. Web.Diplomatic Correspondent for the Jerusalem Post.‖ Araud said. ―We do not see sanctions as an effective institution in this case.B. Turkey and Lebanon criticized the Security Council decision to embrace sanctions. Sanctions would ―lead to the suffering of the people of Iran. the statement read that ―only such sanctions that focus on a variety of sectors in Iran are liable to impact on the Iranian decision-making process. ―Iran has spared no effort to avoid the substance of an agreement.‖ it warned."Jerusalem Post (2010): n. however. and it sends an unmistakable message about the international community‘s commitment to stopping the spread of nuclear weapons. New York correspondent for The Jerusalem Post . or the interests of peace and stability. ―The ramifications of a marriage between Iran‘s extremist ideology and nuclear weapons would be catastrophic. the United States. ―That‘s why the international community was compelled to impose these serious consequences.‖ The Iranian envoy to the UN. which for months has been calling for ―crippling‖ sanctions targeting Iran‘s energy sector. Israel should sign onto the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-weapon state.‖ and that what was necessary now was for additional ―significant steps‖ to be taken by various countries and international groupings. ―We are at this point because the government of Iran has chosen clearly and willfully to violate its commitments to the IAEA and the resolutions of this council. Russia and France rejected the nuclear deal. currently in New York. ―Iran blatantly violated all the previous resolutions.‖ ―Broad and determined‖ international action was necessary to make clear to Teheran the price of continuing to ignore the international community‘s demands. the sanctions fell short of some expectations. representatives of Brazil. There is great importance in the full and immediate implementation of this resolution. or else send a message to Iran and its allies to ―go ahead‖ and pursue nuclear weapons. 12 . Brazil and Turkey brokered a deal with Iran to swap low-enriched uranium for reactor fuel.jpost. E.‖ but saying that additional steps were needed.‖ During the vote. and whether they chose narrow. accusing Iran of using the agreement as an ―alibi to avoid discussion of its nuclear program. Israel expects energy-sector sanctions by WestStill. Obama: Iran only NPT signatory IAEA unconvinced is peaceful US President Barack Obama called the sanctions the toughest and most comprehensive sanctions ever passed against the Islamic Republic. <http://www. with modest increases from previous measures.‖ Ayalon said. Citing ―many false accusations against Iran. ―This resolution will put in place the toughest sanctions ever faced by the Iranian government. Maria LuizaRibeiroViotti.. and submit its facilities to IAEA inspection.‖ Despite consistent and longstanding demands by the international community. Last month. Iran has not suspended its uranium enrichment and other proliferation-related activities.aspx?id=177983>. issued a statement welcoming the new UN sanctions as an ―important step. and Herb Keinon’10.‖ he said. cynical interests. and the resolution did not garner a unanimous vote in the Security Council. Israel. The council was forced to react firmly. the Foreign Ministry statement said.‖ Rice said.‖ Ambassador Muhammad Khazaee said.‖ On Wednesday morning. ―Indeed. issued a statement characterizing the decision as ―historic‖ and took a veiled jab at Turkey. Iran is the only NPT signatory in the world – the only one – that cannot convince the IAEA that its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes. only Lebanon mentioned Israel. hours ahead of the sanctions vote.‖ he said. ―This is the sixth resolution demanding that Iran suspend its enrichments and cooperate with the IAEA. the Security Council has responded decisively to the grave threat to international peace and security posed by Iran‘s failure to live up to its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. ―The facts are clear.‖ the French UN envoy.‖ Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon. ―No amount of pressure and mischief will be able to break our nation‘s determination to pursue and defend its legal and inalienable rights. ―History will judge the nations according to their vote. In an obvious reference to the need to hit the Islamic Republic‘s energy sector.‖ he said. Brazil.‖ the Lebanese representative said. What was important now was to ―supervise the implementation of the sanctions.‖ said the Brazilian envoy. 16 Jul 2010.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Israel Solvency CP gets to the heart of Middle East nuclear politics – sanctions do nothing Solomont. pag. CJ ―Today. and demonstrates blatant disregard for the international community and its institutions.‖ The statement said that it was UN resolution by itself was ―not enough. and they ―run counter to efforts of Brazil and Turkey to engage Iran. Turkey remain opposed to sanctions Ahead of the vote. Gérard Araud.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.‖ a carefully clear this worded statement issued by the Foreign Ministry read.
At this month's nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) review conference in New York. winks and blind eyes. The fact Israel's leaders routinely refused to discuss it did not diminish the certainty with which this conviction was held by the country's Arab neighbours. the US supports. It confirms Israel as the Middle East's premier armed power. From their perspective. to address. It is widely believed to be working hard to catch up with Israel. But diplomats warned last week that the conference could collapse under the weight of its own contradictions unless there was a concrete agreement on the issue – including from Israel. without any doubt. In his Prague speech last year. nor their strong objections to it. soured by Jewish settlement activity in the occupied territories and an impasse in the peace process. Many Arab states worry more about Iran than Israel. pag. But continuing official ambiguity served a useful purpose in that neither side was forced to confront the issue full on. Proof that Israelis. developing nuclear expertise and enriching uranium to levels inconsistent with purely civilian uses. which could have military applications down the road. separately or jointly. 16 Jul 2010. to end perceived double standards and take substantive steps to advance counter-proliferation goals is likely to increase. such as Saudi Arabia. The pressure on Israel from Obama.co. Obama held out the prospect of a nuclear weapons-free world and then agreed significant warhead stockpile reductions with Russia. Many. In a sort of nuclear chain reaction. states such as Qatar have begun their own civilian nuclear programmes with US backing and know-how. CJ Israel has long been assumed to possess nuclear weapons. <http://www. is adversarial. This has been at the heart of the problem since the Jewish state was founded. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It may become even harder to obtain international support for implementing proposed new nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. now undeniable military imbalance. a nuclear weapons state. Tehran will interpret the latest disclosures as proof of a double standard maintained by the US and some western countries – and a vindication of its assertion of its "nuclear rights". winks and blind eyes. in theory at least. notably the largest. and on Obama from the Arab countries. the threat inherent in the resulting. 13 . Egypt. a claim denied.chief foreign affairs leader writer for the Guardian. this means first and foremost dealing with Israel ‑ and thereby potentially defusing the Iran problem. and his regime cronies continue to threaten Israel's existence. But all Arab countries face strong US pressure to eschew a dangerous and expensive Middle East nuclear arms race – a spectre long portrayed as a prelude to Armageddon.guardian. Iran appears to have already made its choice.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/23/israel-nuclear-weapons>. "Israel's nuclear weapons: the end to nods. are said to be looking at the options. What they want are concrete results arising principally from Barack Obama's effort to make nuclear counter-proliferation a top global priority. Syria is suspected of having co-operated with North Korea on obtaining nuclear capabilities. It doesn't help that the relationship between the US president and the Israeli prime minister. Simon ‘10. means an end to nods. Binyamin Netanyahu.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Israel Solvency – Iran CP is a prerequisite to solving Iran prolif Tisdall. It doesn't help that Iran's president. Web. Egyptian-and Turkish-led efforts to create a Middle Eastern nuclear weapons-free zone." Guardia (2010): n. Others. In such a hostile environment Israel is unlikely to make concessions that could impair its security. And it challenges all the countries of the region. appear to be sincere in voluntarily forgoing them. Now the veil has been torn aside. including Iran.
The king was not satisfied with US efforts to prevent Iran from attaining a nuclear weapon and decided to take matter in his own hands. Billions of petrodollars were earmarked to buy off-the-shelf French military satellite systems which France will launch for Saudi Arabia in the next two years. The Jordan French Uranium Mining Company (JFUMC).Nahyans. CJ Saudi King Gets Set to Enrich Weapons-Grade Uranium with French Assistance: Saudi DEBKA ‘10. After talking to the Saudi monarch. build reactors: The two kings Abdullah decided to go fast forward.452 (2010): n. It has met with US disapproval. Earlier this year. using the structures standing ready for two years at the new nuclear city. deputy premier and minister of defense and aviation was called for July 6 and resolved to expedite the signing of a nuclear cooperation pact with France. Abdullah brings Jordan aboard: Jumping the gun on the pact. On returning from Washington. central and eastern Jordan. this contract too is still unsigned but already in the initial stages of implementation. defined as cooperation for building and operating the ―atomic and renewable energy city‖ near Riyadh as announced by King Abdullah in April. When they met last week. Saudi Arabia is taking steps with French help to make Jordan its ―logistical nuclear fuel backup‖ for supplying the Saudi nuclear program with fuel for a nuclear weapon. This proposal put King Abdullah‘s back up for two reasons: The Saudi royal family is on bad terms with the UAE‘s ruling Al. north of Paris. including the Swaqa." DEBKA 10. Our sources quote the Saudis and French officials involved in the project as predicting that the enrichment facilities will start working at full tempo within four to five months after their reinstallation in the nuclear city. trading. DEBKA-Net-Weekly‗s military sources reveal. Experts estimate that Jordan has at least 65. the US-UAE transaction looked like an American attempt to cut Saudi Arabia out of its dealings over Iran and a mark of its mistrust of the Saudi throne. the UAE carried out its side of the bargain in the last two weeks. Khan Azzabib. French and Chinese geologists are carrying out intensive explorations in search of more finds. This bonanza of high-quality ore relatively close to the surface may be enough to revolutionize Jordan‘s economy which is heavily dependent on outside assistance. This would be a powerful sanctions tool.000 tons of uranium under the desert outside Amman and possibly an additional 100. aviation and transport hub and export and import lifeline to the outside world. Furthermore. The American side insists on guarantees 14 .SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Israel Solvency – Saudi Arabia Only the CP prevents Saudi prolif – spills over to the region <http://www. Shortly after he returned from Washington. By denying fuel to Iranian airliners. pag. Egypt. Washington fears Jordan too unstable to keep nuclear facilities secure : Washington‘s refusal to let Jordan exploit its own uranium deposits to make nuclear fuel has held up their nuclear cooperation talks. the French nuclear giant Areva. the Saudi King got in touch with Jordan‘s King Abdullah II and gave him a green light to expedite negotiations with concessionaires for mining Jordanian uranium deposits and building enrichment facilities and nuclear reactors.000 in southern. a Saudi cabinet meeting chaired by Crown Prince Sultan. It was designed in fact to expedite the concentration of all the kingdom‘s nuclear facilities in one place. Washington proposed bringing forward its year-old nuclear proposition to the UAE – provided the Emirates‘ consented to join American sanctions against Iran. DEBKA-Net-Weekly‗s intelligence sources report that just as Iran used North Korea‘s services to try and establish in Syria a nuclear infrastructure to feed Tehran‘s program with plutonium. In May. Syria and Iraq. Riyadh places orders for French military satellites: Following another confidential cabinet decision against Washington. 17 Jul 2010. "Saudi King Gets Set to Enrich Weapons-Grade Uranium with French Assistance. since the UAE has long served Iran as its main financial. The ruling council rarely makes its decisions public. Abdullah came away from his conversation with Obama angered rather than persuaded by Obama‘s proposal for Saudi Arabia to adopt as its model the United Arab Emirates-United States‘ nuclear cooperation plan. although well aware of extreme Obama administration objections to both their plans. However. French nuclear engineers and technicians have been working on the project since early this year. under which the UAE would receive nuclear reactors and other equipment from America. the projected pact with France. King Abdullah rebuked the US president for failing to run his transaction with the UAE past his government first. the Persian Gulf States. A Saudi delegation last month visited the French military intelligence imagery center at the French Air Force base in Creil. had a more far-reaching function. according to DEBKA-NetWeekly‗s intelligence and Gulf sources. Like the nuclear pact. has been operating within a 1. the Gulf federation awarded the US a major strategic breakthrough and dealt Iran a grave setback. making its deposits the 11th largest in the world. These reactors will produce electricity and also nuclear fuel rods. Abdullah encourages Jordan to tap uranium bonanza. The core component was to be the secret uranium enrichment facility currently housed in the southern military town of Khamis Mushayt near the Yemeni border. a joint venture between AREVA and Jordan Energy Resources Inc..com/weekly/452/>. the king decided to couple the oil kingdom‘s nuclear partnership with France with expanded military acquisitions. And indeed. France will also be commissioned to build Saudi ground stations to receive the data gathered by the satellites and operate the stations until Saudi teams are trained. Amman has presented to Washington an ambitious program for developing its uranium wealth and in parallel building enrichment plants that would make the kingdom the Middle East hub for distributing nuclear fuel to Saudi Arabia. to get coordination procedures started. seen from Riyadh. Jordan signed a joint venture with France‘s Areva to mine uranium in central Jordan under a 25-year concession. Web. Wadi Maghar and Attarat areas. Abdullah II ordered the Jordanian Atomic Energy Commission to kickstart negotiations with the several firms vying to sell the kingdom the technology for its first nuclear power plant. King Abdullah made up his mind to press ahead on uranium enrichment – in defiance of repeated US requests – after his June 29 conversation with US President Barack Obama at the White House ended in discord on nuclear questions. but.debka.000 megawatt nuclear power plant. Canada‘s AECL and Russia‘s Atomstroyexport were shortlisted to compete for designing the kingdom‘s first 1. the first Western experts to see at first hand what is going on in the Saudi nuclear city.400-square-kilometre concession area in the central region.
Jordan or its administration‘s alarm over its close Middle East ally‘s nuclear plans: . civilian nuclear program for generating 30 percent of its energy needs by 2030. the US would help Jordan launch a Jordanian side stands by the right to produce its own nuclear fuel as a signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. such pose the same threat to the world as Iran. 15 . Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak took advantage of his visit to Paris for a discussion with French president Nicolas Sarkozy on the integration of his own nuclear plans in the burgeoning Saudi-French-Jordanian program. The This would spike Jordan‘s plans. Monday. starting with this volatile region. This pledge was in keeping with Obama‘s public commitment to guarantee Israel‘s military edge.Given a free hand.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ from Jordan that would oblige it to buy reactor fuel from the international market – a safeguard against its potential diversion for military uses (after the Iranian precedent). In return. July 6. This was before he went into the Percy military hospital for medical check-ups (see HOT POINTS of July 7) The acute acceleration of a nuclear race on the moderate Arab side of the Middle East figured large in President Obama‘s talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House Tuesday. without requiring Israel to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty. conquerors may seek nuclear weapons and US grants Israel nuclear perks to maintain its military edge: Powered by full Saudi backing and a French vested interest. Iran and even possibly Iraq or Islamic extremists.A high-tech nuclear industry would make Jordan an irresistible target for its covetous neighbors. to sell Israel materials for the production of electricity. Washington proposes an accord permitting Jordan to mine the ore but not convert it into fuel. flying in the face of Barack Obama‘s ambition for worldwide denuclearization. There are three major considerations behind the Obama as Syria. to become a regional centre for uranium enrichment. advanced nuclear technology and other items. Cairo is watching these events with interest. leaked later by US and Israeli sources.Another nuclear power would be introduced to the Middle East.The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and its king are not powerful or stable enough to keep their fuel enrichment installations secure. . the Hashemite king feels he can overlook Obama‘s objections and move forward with his nuclear plans. . . It resulted in a presidential pledge. backed now by Saudi Arabia. July 5.
" said the statement from Israel. believed to be the region's sole if undeclared nuclear power.com/english/?id=39261>. It ignores the realities of the Middle East and the real threats facing the region and the entire world. Iran welcomed the document from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) signatories that proposed new steps towards disarmament. the Middle East's only true democracy and the only country threatened with annihilation. The agreement reached Friday at the 2010 NPT review conference called for a regional conference in 2012 to advance the goal of a nuclear-free Middle East. "This resolution is Toronto by the Israeli government. but Iran hails NPT accord. The accord specifically mentions "the importance of Israel's accession to the treaty and the placement of all its nuclear facilities under comprehensive IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards. like Israel. "It deeply flawed and hypocritical.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Israel – Uniqueness Israel has refused to cooperate on non-prolif agreements online. 16 Jul 2010." it said. CJ Middle East Online ‘10. Web.middle-eastIsrael Saturday denounced a United Nations resolution adopted on Friday by the Non-Proliferation Treaty's 189 nations and said it would refuse to take part in a conference on a nuclear-weapons-free Middle East. 16 . <http://www. "Israel denounces." said a statement released in singles out Israel. are non-members of the treaty and are either known or believed to possess nuclear weapons. "Israel will not be able to take part in its implementation." But it failed to make similar reference to other nations including India and Pakistan that. as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Canada. pag." (2010): n.
and today there are more than a dozen fuel bank proposals including the Russian-backed International Uranium Enrichment Center (IUEC) and the NTI-proposed. which gives a signatory nation the option to withdraw from the treaty should it ever Proponents of the fuel bank system contend that ―jeopardize the supreme interests of the country. Solves prolif and strengthens the NPT Brookings Energy Security Initiative. different plans for fuel banks have been discussed for decades. proposals for a multinational nuclear fuel bank were never seriously discussed because of a lack of multilateral support.25 The most important distinction of the current proposition for a multilateral fuel bank is that it will serve as a supply assurance to nations who have been denied access to fuel for reasons not related to non-proliferation or commercial considerations.pdf) Popular decades ago. as highlighted by President Obama‘s explicit endorsement for the mechanism during his speech in Prague in April 2009.brookings. As highlighted earlier. Charles K. Banks. 17-18 http://www. the fuel bank proposal aims to prevent future abuse of Article X of the NPT. IAEA-NTI Nuclear Fuel Bank.‖ North Korea infamously invoked Article X and used the technologies and materials it acquired as a signatory state to develop its nuclear weaponsprogram once it withdrew from the Treaty. By limiting the number of enrichment facilities and consequently the diffusion of sensitive technologies and knowledge. 17 . Moodie.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/05_nuclear_renaissance_banks_ebinger/05_nuclear_renaissance_banks_ebinger. Michael M. Sharon Squassoni. nations interested in developing domestic nuclear power capacity will be less inclined to invest in domestic enrichment facilities. ‗Non-Proliferation and the Nuclear ‗renaissance‘: The Contribution and Responsibilities of the Nuclear Industry. Ebinger. and is not intended to replace the existing system. May 2010 (John P. Lawrence Scheinman.‖ Pg.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Fuel Bank 1NC The International Atomic Energy Agency should establish and fund a nuclear fuel bank accessible to nations who have been denied fuel for reasons not related to nonproliferation or commercial considerations. by offering assurance of LEU supply. This concern may be changing.
But we also need to make sure that if states provide assistance to others for peaceful nuclear energy. At present funding levels.Recent disclosures about the activities of the Pakistani nuclear scientist and proliferation entrepreneur Abdul Qadeer Khan underscore additional risks. the Bush administration stubbornly resists any suggestion of a "grand bargain" with Iran. spent fuel rods are returned to international storage. Meanwhile.Recent events have underscored the risk of nuclear breakout.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Fuel Bank Solvency Securing loose nuclear materials is key – solves Iran and North Korea Serious About Nuclear Proliferation. the approach to proliferation challenges is curiously complacent—marked by an inability to translate rhetoric into action. Visiting Fellow and Berger.The United States also should lay out for North Korea the security guarantees and economic benefits it could expect for dismantling its nuclear weapons program and abandoning its nuclear ambitions—as well as make clear that further separation of plutonium will result in serious consequences.Second. 18 . The president's proposals are fine as far as they go.brookings.Further. as Senator Sam Nunn has said. coercive if necessary.As for North Korea. and serious investments of political and financial capital. Unfortunately. provided that Iran gives up.. that Iran's nuclear program is motivated primarily by nationalist ambitions to achieve world-class technological prowess. Only by defining North Korea's options in such stark terms. its weapons of mass destruction programs and ties to terrorist organizations . skillful diplomacy.edu/articles/2004/0303nuclearweapons_leverett.As Bush stated Feb. and demonstrating our willingness to get to Yes. constructive purposes. under international supervision. keeping states under investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency off the agency's board of governors. we need to make it illegal for a state to withdraw from the nonproliferation treaty if its nuclear activities are under investigation. America should lead the UN Security Council in defining sanctions that would be imposed automatically on any state threatening to use the treaty as a springboard for nuclear weapons development. right now. and mandating implementation of the Additional Protocol as a condition for nuclear imports are all essential steps. Kim Jong Il has clearly slipped the bonds of the nonproliferation regime. In too many places. the consensus among nations that proliferation is intolerable "means little unless it is translated into action. Worse. the Bush administration's dithering on serious diplomatic engagement is inexplicable. Washington would a serious strategy for containing the spread of nuclear weapons look like?First. this represents more wishful thinking than reality. Third. Tighter regulation of fuel cycle activities. 2004 (Flynt L. "tons of poorly secured plutonium and highly enriched uranium—the raw materials of nuclear terrorism—are spread around the world."What clear strategic choices for Iran and North Korea. and second. it is time to close increasingly obvious gaps in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Yet the administration remains complacent in securing loose nuclear materials around the world and redirecting weapons scientists and assets to peaceful. but it is virtually certain that Pyongyang possesses considerably more reprocessed plutonium today than a year ago. Yet. definitively and verifiably. We know there are sophisticated clandestine procurement networks for nuclear fuels and technology. it will not complete the job for more than a decade. Iran's foreign minister said twice last week that Tehran intends to sell nuclear fuel abroad. but they do not go far enough. 11. we must deal with the crisis of unsecured nuclear materials around the world. and that Iran will not give up its nuclear aspirations until those concerns are addressed. it is time to define should publicly offer to normalize relations with Iran—including a commitment not to change its government by force—and help it integrate into the global economy. and Samuel R. which will be much greater than the administration's current budget envisions. Given this reality. can the United States marshal the regional and international support we will need if Pyongyang says No. Brookings Institution. Analysts may debate the number of nuclear bombs North Korea has built.‖ http://www. The deal brokered by three European foreign ministers with Tehran last autumn is not stopping Iran's development of an infrastructure that could ultimately produce weapons-grade fissile material for nuclear bombs. None of those have been forthcoming so far.The European approach is based on two premises: first. on its way to potentially becoming the first nuclear weapons WalMart for terror groups. that Tehran would ultimately relinquish the militarily applicable parts of its program in exchange for international assistance in developing the rest of its nuclear agenda. ChairmanMarch 03." But translating counter proliferation goals into action will take sustained American leadership and engagement. Compelling evidence suggests Iran's nuclear program is intended to give Tehran a nuclear-weapons hedge against what Iranians see as very real threats to their national security. We must globalize Nunn-Lugar programs and fund them at the levels necessary to do the job.The Nunn-Lugar initiative is designed to dismantle or transform potentially dangerous nuclear activities in the former Soviet Union. ―Let's Get We are losing the fight to stop the spread of nuclear-weapons capabilities to rogue states.aspx) Leverett. International Tribune.
rising gas prices. Noevmber/December 2008. are available. including in many countries where antinuclear sentiment has long been very strong. Plutonium. fashioning it into a device that could explode with catastrophic consequences is not beyond the capacity of any determined group of individuals with access to substantial resources. more nations will insist on developing their own nuclear fuel cycle to enrich uranium for the sake of self-sufficiency. Centrifuge enrichment of uranium and the separation of plutonium from the spent fuel produced by a nuclear power plant are technologies that are now widely understood and publicized. Facilities built to enrich uranium to the level needed to power a civilian reactor are essentially the same as those needed to produce weapons-grade uranium. whether enriched uranium or plutonium.400 new nuclear power reactors by 2050. 19 .edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2008/11_nuclear_weapons_daalder/11_nuclear_weapons_daalder. 2008 (Ivo and Jan ―The Logic of Zero. Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. The International Energy Agency has called for 1. Increased pollution.pdf) The fundamental weakness of the NPT is that it permits a country to produce enriched uranium and plutonium. Accounting for and controlling the fissile materials that are produced or otherwise available is therefore the only secure method of ensuring that new bombs will not be developed—and this is about to become even more difficult. depleted sources of oil supply. For many years. Toward a World Without Nuclear Weapons. Once the facilities necessary to produce highly enriched uranium or separate plutonium are in place. this was thought to be acceptable because the technical challenges involved in moving from possessing the capacity to operate a power plant to being able to build a nuclear weapon were substantial (and kept largely secret by the established nuclear powers). Gerald Ford. weapons development is inevitable Daadler.brookings. immediate past President of the Atlantic Council of the United States and a former senior Defense Department and White House official in the administrations of Richard Nixon. the only two materials from which a nuclear weapon can be fashioned. as long as it does so as a declared part of its civilian nuclear program. As new reactors are built. http://www. the other bomb-making material. is a natural byproduct of producing nuclear energy.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Fuel Bank Solvency As long as fissile material is available worldwide. and it can be separated from power-plant waste (―spent fuel‖) through reprocessing— practice that is permitted under the NPT so long as it is done under IAEA safeguards.‖ Foreign Affairs. and Lodal. But all this has changed. and Bill Clinton. and global warming are fueling a growing demand for nuclear energy. Once a few kilograms of the necessary material. only months are necessary to turn a permitted peaceful nuclear capability into a nuclear weapons capability.
. " I want to make sure that every country that is a bona fide user of nuclear energy. In so doing. Head of the IAEA‘s Verification and Security Policy Coordination Section‘s Office of External Relations and Policy Coordination.Sc.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Fuel Bank Solvency – Russia Russia supports the CP Barnaby. 2009 http://scitizen. It is not asking any State to give up its rights under the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty). M. Both America and Russia have stated that they are willing to make nuclear material available for a fuel bank administered by the IAEA. consultant to the Oxford Research Group on nuclear issues. the setting up of a nuclear fuel bank under international safeguards ―is an either/or situation. The two most sensitive technologies. by providing reliable access to fuel at competitive market prices. The importance of this step is that.html) The IAEA has been recommending for some time that a nuclear fuel bank should be set up in a way that would not disrupt the existing commercial market in nuclear fuels (3). we could go a long way towards addressing current concerns about the dissemination of sensitive fuel cycle technologies‖ (4)." (5) 20 . and that is fulfilling its non-proliferation obligations.). B.com/future-energies/the-birth-of-an-international-nuclear-fuel-bank-_a-14-2767. is getting fuel. In the words of Tariq Rauf.. are uranium-enrichment and plutonium-reprocessing. 2009 (Frank.Sc. then we must prepare to live in a world where dozens of countries have the capability and key ingredients to make nuclear weapons.com. ―The Birth of an International Nuclear Fuel Bank?‖ May 26.. insofar as nuclear-weapon proliferation is concerned. D.Scitizen.Sc. if we don‘t make it work. Ph. (Hon. IAEA Director General Mohamed El Baradei explains.D. we remove the need for countries to develop indigenous fuel cycle capabilities.
Arms Control. They should also formalize Russia‘s offer to help counties dispose of spent nuclear fuel. Visiting Fellow. and Russian interests converge. Nonproliferation. (The United States should also ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Nuclear. Washington and Moscow should reenergize their cooperation to ensure that highly enriched uranium (HEU) and other nuclear weapons-usable materials are securely stored. July 16. Fifth. Visiting Fellow. Strengthening the firewalls now against proliferation could curtail a race to weaponization that would be destabilizing and potentially deadly. 21 . The Permanent Five and Germany should make the choice before Iran as stark as possible: incentives – including the prospect of normalization of relations with the United States and the West – if Tehran makes the right choice. Russia.) Second. That could be blended down into low enriched uranium (LEU) for use as fuel for nuclear reactors. to place its entire nuclear program under international supervision. Nonproliferation. an action already taken by Russia. It will drive the U. Russia. Vice President and Director. Third. Arms Control. Washington and Moscow should offer an agenda to strengthen the NPT regime. July 16. And it would be a big win for a safer world.S. Center on the United States and Europe This is a big initiative that builds on issues where U. Defense Carlos Pascual. 2010 Thinking Big on Nuclear Non-Proliferation. which strengthens safeguards against the misuse of civil nuclear technology. at the least. Washington could use this to press Moscow to adopt a tougher line against Iran‘s nuclear program. Key to relations The Brookings Institution. they should begin parallel discussions on how to address non-deployed strategic warheads and tactical nuclear weapons. and launch of a negotiation to ban the production of new fissile material. Foreign Policy . and long-term commercial benefits from supplying LEU fuel.Steven Pifer.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Fuel Bank Solvency – Russia Russia supports the Cp The Brookings Institution. In anticipation of further deeper nuclear reductions. a global leadership role boosting Moscow‘s political stature. Foreign Policy . This is a win-win play for the United States and Russia. Washington and Moscow should develop a program to produce LEU fuel under international supervision and make it available at reasonable cost to any non-nuclear weapons state in full compliance with its NPT obligations. Fourth. Vice President and Director. Foreign Policy. Where necessary and appropriate. Washington and Moscow should agree this year to reduce their strategic nuclear arsenals to no more than 1500 deployed warheads on each side. It has plenty to interest the Russians: deep mutual reductions in nuclear weapons.Steven Pifer. the picture is less grim than President John Kennedy‘s fear of 20 nuclear-armed states by 1970. 2010 Thinking Big on Nuclear Non-Proliferation. Defense Carlos Pascual. Foreign Policy. This should include: a diplomatic plan to secure universal accession to the NPT and to the Additional Protocol. Center on the United States and Europe First. real costs – including Russian and Chinese support for stiffer sanctions – if Iran continues its current course. Nuclear. they should work out arrangements to take back HEU from third countries. as the Russians have been doing for years.S. Despite the NPT‘s limitations.-Russian relationship in a more positive direction. Washington and Moscow should spur the UN Permanent Five-plus-Germany effort to persuade Iran to forgo nuclear enrichment or.
Iran would rely on it rather than develop its own enrichment capabilities. Under the agreement.org/content/Russia_IAEA_Agree_To_Establish_Worlds_First_Nuclear_Fuel_Bank/1997174. signed the deal with IAEA head Yukiya Amano in Vienna on March 29. Sergei Kiriyenko.. But it's still thought that this could prove useful. including nuclear power plants. The international community suspects Iran is trying to build atomic weapons." The IAEA says the bank is a way to meet demand from some 60 nations for technical help in launching peaceful atomic energy programs without increasing the risk of proliferation. Russia and Kazakhstan have had a uranium enrichment facility there since 2007. But he stressed that the bank's reserves are meant to be used only in cases of urgent need and to avoid interruptions in a country's supply. Russia will cover the costs involved in setting up the bank. 22 . countries will formally request nuclear fuel from the IAEA. an idea strongly backed by the United States. took part in consultations with the IAEA on the fuel bank initiative and says most of the countries where civilian nuclear energy is expanding are "for economic. Russia's atomic energy chief. "The hope was that the Russia or some other countries would develop this fuel bank and that. He predicted that nearly a third of the total uranium stockpile should be ready to sell by the end of the year. of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. [regarding] some of Iran's neighbors that are looking at a nuclear program. and said Russia hopes to eventually control a quarter of the global nuclear power market. Corey Hinderstein. Russia has its own stake in hosting the fuel bank. the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Since becoming prime minister in May 2008. Putin signed multi-billion-dollar deals to build up to 16 nuclear reactors. But Richard Weitz.html) Russia has signed a deal with the UN's nuclear watchdog. During a visit to India earlier this month.‘ March 30. 2010 http://www. ‗Russia. and they'll want to rely on the international markets. IAEA Agree To Establish World's First Nuclear Fuel Bank. a claim that Tehran denies. Non-Proliferation Effort The Russian deal was approved by the IAEA last November and is the result of years of planning to establish a reliable source of low-enriched uranium for civilian nuclear programs in countries with a perfect non-proliferation record. Vladimir Putin has made strengthening Russia's nuclear power sector a top economic priority. which will then transfer the request to Russia. said the bank will be located in the southern Siberian city of Angarsk. senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. perhaps. The IAEA says the eventually hold a stockpile of 120 tons of low-enriched uranium. in other cases -. was also meant to give Iran an opportunity to change its course.rferl. to set up the world's first nuclear fuel bank of low-enriched uranium for countries that need fuel for civilian purposes." Weitz said.not likely to want to rely on indigenous fuel cycle facilities to be able to supply their nuclear energy programs. in particular.." The creation of an international nuclear fuel bank. reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. political. says the creation of the bank comes too late to influence Iran's nuclear program. bank will Kiriyenko. and technological reasons.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ A2: Fuel Bank CP We’re already developing a fuel bank Solash.for example. "But that's not going to happen. 2010 (Richard. That was a few years ago. who heads Russia's state-owned nuclear company Rosatom.
after Turkish companies announced their withdrawal from the development of the third phase of the South Pars oil and gas field. the Iranian government has filled the gap.Indeed. In fact. Web.aei. Hossein Salami. through which the IRGC manages its financial activities. let's target the IRGC. Ahmadinejad has had a counterpunch for every American.The IRGC's expansion into Iran's private sector has earned some attention but its move into banking and financial services has gone unnoticed. sanctions.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ Iran Sanctions 1NC The United States federal government should extent economic sanctions against Iran to the Revolutionary Guard Corps.Unfortunately." said President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. which has had decades to figure a way around sanctions. the Guards need to be cut off from internal Iranian support. and the Ansar Financial and Credit Institute--operate without fear of sanctions. Yet most of these businesses--ranging from mining and car companies to telecommunications ones--are dependent on outside suppliers. in March. Khtam al-Owsia is a front for the IRGC's Khatam al-Anbia construction company. the Mehr Finance & Credit Institution." By sanctioning all companies partly or completely owned by the IRGC the international community can deny them spare parts and technology. But let's hit them effectively. their role in oppression inside Iran and their role in proliferation. <http://www.org/article/102306>. and their involvement in the nuclear issue has subjected Iran to sanctions. the United Nations Security Council imposed a fourth round of sanctions on Iran designed to punish the IRGC and its affiliated companies for their nuclear proliferation activities. Let's take Khatam al-Anbia Construction Base (GHORB). the IRGC's deputy commander.In addition. ill-gotten gains from vast smuggling enterprises. the Oil Ministry gave Khatam al-Anbia a contract for an $850 million pipeline project.This cash has enabled the IRGC to dominate the Iranian economy and to purchase state enterprises and businesses through the Tehran Stock Exchange. their support for terrorism. which is now under sanction. the engine of Iran's nuclear program." Ahmadinejad promised to compensate the IRGC for sanctions-related losses.N. 16 Jul 2010."American Enterprise The IRGC has defended the regime in Tehran against internal "counter-revolutionaries" since 1979 and external enemies such as during the Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980 and the following eight years of war. the Iranian economy has become dominated by the IRGC. But let's do it effectively. Khatam al-Anbia was granted the $7 billion project to make up for the gap. Less than a week before last month's U. substantial amounts of which were purchased by front companies for the Guards.Up to now.The Iranian public also recognizes that international sanctions are not designed to harm Iran and Iranians but to change the Iranian regime and the IRGC's nuclear calculations.Following the Treasury Department's February designation of Khatam al-Anbia as "proliferators of weapons of mass destruction. and not the war heroes they pretend to be. or United Nations blow to the IRGC. and very little is produced at home except crude oil and carpets.Strangling the IRGC's access to funding would make it much more difficult for the Guard to establish political patronage through its business enterprises in Iran. Solves weapons development – the IRGC is responsible for the current crisis Institute for Public Policy Research (2010): n. European. Ali ’10.These sanctions are not going to work. Congress [then] approved tough new unilateral sanctions aimed at squeezing Iran's energy and banking sectors while punishing companies from other countries for doing business with Tehran.The Iranian political leadership and the IRGC dismissed them both.In early June. The Islamic Republic's serial reflagging and renaming of Iran Lines (ISRIL) is another. And losing. Indeed. the Guards' ability to mask their activities behind front companies--an agile game of hide-and-seek at which the IRGC is clearly the better player--means that the international community is constantly playing catch up.During his first five years in office.By sanctioning all companies partly or completely owned by the IRGC the international community can deny them spare parts and technology. The reason is quite simple: they fail to target the financial arm of the IRGC. As foreign nations have become more leery of doing business with the Guards. cut off foreign investment and paralyze their assets abroad. Alfoneh. thirty one years after the revolution. Scholar Researcher at the American Enterprise Institute.N."These resolutions are not worth a nickel to the Iranian nation. Later in the month. Changing the name Khatam al-Anbia to Khatam al-Owsia is just one example of how the IRGC hides its assets and circumvents sanctions. Remember: Iran is not North Korea. and increase transaction and business costs for IRGC owned businesses. the engineering arm of the IRGC. which is under U. "What Would Really Work to Stop Iran's March to Nukes . the Iranian Oil Ministry granted $5 billion to a newly established Khtam al-Owsia Consortium for development of the 13th and 14th phases of the South Pars gas and oil field--a project which will require substantial foreign expertise and technology. Let's exact a price for their adventurism. Security Council action.The Iranian people increasingly understand that IRGC commanders are a source of corruption and repression.N. 23 . Yet. Its economy subsists on exports and imports. This in turn would affect negatively the value of these companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange. their reserves brimming with profits and. the IRGC now preys upon the society it was meant to protect. Increasingly.By all means. allegedly. sanctions focuses on both the IRGC and Iran's major banks--an attempt to starve the mainstay of the Islamic Republic and force a cost-benefit analysis that favors negotiations--but [it] ignores the Guard's parallel banking sector. pag. The latest round of U. cut off foreign investment and paralyze their assets abroad. technology and expertise. added that the "Guards are not concerned about the sanctions. The Revolutionary Guards' financial institutions--like the IRGC Cooperative Foundation. Ahmadinejad "privatized" almost $60 billion worth of public assets. The following month. Ahmadinejad and Salami have it right.
worldsecuritynetwork. Israel. World Security Network. India. Crafted in a period of euphoria about the blessings of nuclear energy. North Korea and Iran signed the treaty but then used their safeguarded nuclear power and research programs to develop the wherewithal to make the bomb. and Lodal. Only the final steps to produce nuclear weapons are prohibited – steps that a determined regime could take promptly after its withdrawal from the Treaty. Noevmber/December 2008. pg. But all this has changed. Private Office of the NATO Secretary General. and they were therefore able to sidestep the world‘s nuclearcontrol system with relative ease. Gerald Ford.cfm?article_id=14467) KM RÜHLE. However. but it has proved inadequate in a number of respects. however. are available. Policy Planning Section. 2008 (Ivo and Jan ―The Logic of The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) was intended to serve this role. as long as it does so as a declared part of its civilian nuclear program.Civilian Nuclear Proliferation http://www. the Treaty in effect allows a country to develop its civilian nuclear programme right to the threshold of having military applications. Toward a World Without Nuclear Weapons.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ NPT Fails NPT is ineffective.com/showArticle3. NPT is Flawed. Centrifuge enrichment of uranium and the separation of plutonium from the spent fuel produced by a nuclear power plant are technologies that are now widely understood and publicized. The fundamental weakness of the NPT is that it permits a country to produce enriched uranium and plutonium. this was thought to be acceptable because the technical challenges involved in moving from possessing the capacity to operate a power plant to being able to build a nuclear weapon were substantial (and kept largely secret by the established nuclear powers).edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2008/11_nuclear_weapons_daalder/11_nuclear_weapons_daalder. since civil and military nuclear technologies are almost indistinguishable. Once a few kilograms of the necessary material. the only two materials from which a nuclear weapon can be fashioned. 24 . 87 http://www. 2007 (Michael.brookings. fashioning it into a device that could explode with catastrophic consequences is not beyond the capacity of any determined group of individuals with access to substantial resources. might well be its energy dimension.loophole allows for the production of enriched uranium and plutonium Zero. and Bill Clinton. Tehran has been caught working on a weapons program and is enriching uranium. June 04. Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. There is no doubt that Iran has the capability to develop a nuclear weapon within the next few years. Pyongyang withdrew from the treaty in 2003 and then made the remaining short leap to testing a nuclear device. and Pakistan never accepted the treaty. The most worrisome structural weakness of the NPT from today‘s vantage point.‖ Foreign Affairs. Deputy Head. For many years.pdf) KM Daadler. defying the demands of the IAEA and the UN Security Council to suspend these activities.4 This very scenario now appears to be coming true in Iran. whether enriched uranium or plutonium. the NPT sought to prevent military proliferation by fostering civilian nuclear proliferation. immediate past President of the Atlantic Council of the United States and a former senior Defense Department and White House official in the administrations of Richard Nixon.
69 Yet. and not the most important one. 337-430. ―AVERTING CATASTROPHE: WHY THE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION TREATY IS LOSING ITS DETERRENCE CAPACITY AND HOW TO RESTORE IT. If the NPT is in jeopardy. including for three years as a senior attorney specializing in nuclear nonproliferation. a state progressing towards developing nuclear weapons might decide to remain within the NPT in order to further advance its weapons program clandestinely. pp. Any nuclear power program that operates fully independently (with a ―full fuel cycle‖) includes technology readily adaptable to the production of weapons-grade fissile material. June 04. Finally. under NPT Article IV as currently interpreted.72 NPT Can’t Solve. Deputy Head. 2007 (Michael. new developments in international security tend to invalidate many of the traditional assumptions underlying the NPT. 11.cfm?article_id=14467) KM This school has many adherents.Three Reasons RÜHLE. Private Office of the NATO Secretary General. Associate Professor of Law. yet it fails to capture the true causes of the weakening of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.worldsecuritynetwork.p-proliferation norm and paralyses the UN Security Council in maintaining the integrity of the nonproliferation regime.edu/mjil/article-pdfs/v28n2-kittrie. or possessing weapon-grade nuclear material.3 25 .. Article X provides each state party the right to withdraw from the NPT at its own discretion. the increasing demand for fossil energy tends to override the non. with the failure of the NWS to adhere to their Article VI commitments being just one. Therefore. Each of these three factors is examined in more detail below.pdf) Civilian nuclear power technology and the nuclear technology needed to develop weapons-grade fissile material overlap considerably. Vol. As IAEA Director General El Baradei puts it: ―[u]nder the current regime . or even weapons-grade nuclear material.law. so long as the technology and material are ―for peaceful purposes‖ and ―in conformity with articles I and II‖ of the NPT. Policy Planning Section. Sandra Day O‘Connor College of Law. students.years of service for the United States Department of State. there is nothing illicit in a non-nuclear-weapon state having enrichment or reprocessing technology. structural weaknesses that burdened the NPT from its very beginning have progressively gained in salience and are now undermining some of the key tenets of the regime. . it can withdraw from the NPT and quickly proceed to construct a nuclear bomb. World Security Network. The fuel cycle stages most readily adaptable to producing such material are the enrichment and reprocessing stages. once a state bent on developing nuclear weapons has acquired the requisite material or technologies.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ NPT Fails NPT leaves wide gaps for regimes that are determined to proliferate Kittrie. Arizona State University. 2007.71 Alternatively. 28.com/showArticle3. it is mainly due to three major factors: First. and are pushing other nonproliferation strategies to the fore.‖ Michigan Journal of International Law. . state parties (including NNWSs) are not prohibited from possessing enrichment or reprocessing technology. Second. 2007 (Orde F. The crisis of the NPT is due to many causes.‖70 The overlap between civilian and military nuclear technologies poses perhaps the most significant challenge facing the nuclear nonproliferation regime: the ease with which a state—in the guise of conducting a peaceful nuclear weapons program—can acquire either weapons-grade fissile material or the technologies necessary for its production. http://www.umich.
The attacks also raised the spectre of terrorist non-state actors armed with WMD. the five permanent UNSC members are nuclear-weapon states and thus vulnerable to charges of double is particularly clear with respect to the United States – the de facto trustee of the NPT regime –which has clearly suffered from a loss of moral authority. North Korea‘s nuclear ambitions could only be contained through massive US political and military pressure. http://www. The major problem for the UNSC. In 1993. thereby creating a new challenge for the inter-state nature of the NPT-regime and invalidating many assumptions of rationality and restraint that were considered central to dealing with the nuclear reality. the non-proliferation norm may be superseded by energy or geopolitical considerations. That task will rather fall to the standards. Policy Planning Section. That same year. 2007 (Michael. and able to take effective action. it appears that some UNSC members‘ own fossil energy needs may lead them to accept a country‘s nuclear-weapon status in order to retain access to that country‘s fossil fuel. NPT not credible. and India/Pakistan prove RÜHLE. The terrorist attacks against the United States on 11 September 2001 gave the non-proliferation question a new sense of urgency and dramatically decreased US tolerance vis-à-vis proliferating states (―axis of evil‖). Finally. The case of Iran is most instructive in this regard. 2007 (Michael.cfm?article_id=14467) KM *Note: UNSC= UN Security Council The NPT‘s structural problems and new security challenges make it clear that mere tinkering with the wording of some of the NPT‘s provisions will not suffice to restore the integrity of the damaged regime. Policy Planning Section.SCFI 2010 Albert Qaeda Adv CP’s ___ of ___ NPT Fails NPT fails. Private Office of the NATO Secretary General. Instead of helping a NNWS to cope with its nuclear energy needs. This UNSC as the ultimate arbiter of the NPT. is a phenomenon that one may term the ―economisation‖ of security policy. Deputy Head. but also how to bring wayward outsiders into the NPT.worldsecuritynetwork.com/showArticle3. Deputy Head. In 1998. World Security Network. Neither in North Korea nor in Iran could the IAEA demonstrate convincingly that it was abreast of the situation. http://www. the debate on a possible ―Talibanisation‖ of Pakistan raised the spectre of a fundamentalist nuclear power emerging literally overnight. June 04. yet with little international support. What can be observed here is a reversal of the NPT‘s original energy bargain. June 04. the nuclear tests by India and Pakistan raised questions of how to discourage non-NPT members from seeking nuclear weapons.double standard RÜHLE. World Security Network. 26 . Simply put. notably because of the Iraq war.Iraq. North Korea.worldsecuritynetwork. The resulting lack of trust in the NPT‘s verification clauses in general and the IAEA‘s abilities in particular could never be overcome.com/showArticle3. Private Office of the NATO Secretary General.cfm?article_id=14467) KM The discovery of Iraq‘s secret nuclear programme immediately after the 1990-1991 Gulf War revealed a massive verification failure. however. if a proliferator also happens to be a major energy supplier or is valuable for other reasons. However. the withdrawal of the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) from Iraq and North Korea‘s missile tests further underscored the limits of traditional multilateral approaches to nonproliferation.
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