Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | February 19, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Day’s overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update
Tuesday | February 19, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis German Zew Economic sentiment rose to 48.2 levels in February. Eurozone Zew Economic sentiment rose to 42.4 levels in February . European markets are trading on a firm note taking cues from the more than expected rise in the economic sentiment in Germany and in the Eurozone region. US index futures and Asian shares increased today. Spot gold prices are trading 0.14 percent higher taking cues from rise in the demand from the Asian buyers. However, strength in the DX capped gains in the yellow metal prcies. In the domestic market, prices of gold on MCX are trading on a flat note. Tracing firmness in the spot gold prices, spot silver prices are also trading in the green. However, weakness in the base metal pack capped gains in the spot silver prices till 4:30 p.m today. Strength in the DX also restricted the gains in the spot silver prices. In the domestic market, silver prices on MCX are trading on a flat note with marginal gains taking cues from the international silver prices. The base metals complex are trading on a bearish note due to lower demand from China as the nations returns from week long Lunar New Year holiday. Reports of measures to curb rise in the property prices by the Chinese government also exerted downside pressure on the metals prices. Rise in the LME inventories of most of the metal except lead also acted as a bearish factor for the base metal prices. In the Indian markets prices of base metals traced the international prices. However, fall in the prices were cushioned taking cues from positive data from the Eurozone region. Strength in the DX also exerted a downside pressure on the base metals. Copper prices are trading 0.48 percent lower due to reduced demand from China the major consumer of the red metal along with strength in the DX. Reports of measures to curb rise in the property prices by the Chinese government also exerted downside pressure on the metals prices. Rise in the LME Copper inventories also exerted downside pressure on the red metal prices. Copper prices on MCX traced weakness in the international prices. Nymex crude oil prices continued to extend losses of the previous day and are trading 0.4 percent lower on account of reduced demand from the major consuming nation. Strength in the DX also acted as bearish factor for the crude oil prices. However, positive data from the Eurozone region cushioned fall in the prices. MCX crude oil prices are trading on a flat note marginally down till 4:30 p.m today. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5900.20 19523.70 11336.45 1981.96 16367.34 High 5947.55 19671.17 11412.86 1990.09 16564.57

as at 4.30 pm – 19 February ’13
Low 5883.15 19457.21 11336.45 1979.85 16364.89 Last 5939.70 19635.72 11372.34 1985.83 16364.89 % Chg from Prev day 0.70 0.69 -0.31 0.20 0.62
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm –19 February ’13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 80.75 1.335 54.18 High 80.77 1.3373 54.313 Low 80.585 1.3328 54.14 Current 80.735 1.333 54.295 % Chg from Prev day 0.20 -0.16 0.08
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm – 19 February ’13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar’13 MCX Gold – Apr’13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar’13 MCX Silver – Mar ’13 Crude Oil Nymex – Feb ‘13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Feb’ ’13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb’13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Feb’13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Feb’13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Feb’13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Feb’13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1609.55 1613.30 30200 29.84 29.940 56330 95.50 117.48 5189 8132.50 442.20 2159.00 116.10 2400 129.50 17940 969.00 2120.50 113.55

1614.95 1613.30 30212 30.13 30.12 56353 95.72 117.52 5189 8153.50 442.70 2166.00 116.15 2405 129.55 17980 969.00 2128.00 113.60

1609.19 1613.30 30166 29.84 29.92 56173 95.32 117.08 5174 8084.00 438.90 2141.50 115.15 2372 128.30 17620 955.10 2105.00 112.60

1611.81 1613.30 30195 29.99 30.09 56322 95.47 117.36 5185 8086.25 439.10 2142.50 115.15 2375 128.45 17625 955.20 2112.25 113.05

0.14 0.28 0.07 0.17 0.54 0.19 -0.41 -0.02 0.00 -0.48 -0.75 -0.58 -0.82 -1.03 -0.93 -1.76 -1.53 -0.51 -0.62

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update
Tuesday | February 19, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals to trade with upward bias on the back of demand from the Asian buyers. Base metal prices are expected to trade with bearish note as expectation of measures by the Chinese government to curb the rise in the property prices might reduce the demand for the metals. This is expected to exert downside pressure on the base metals. However positive data from the Euro region might cushion fall in the prices. Crude oil prices are expected to trade with bearish note due to reduced demand from the key consuming nations. Strength in the DX might also act as bearish factor for the commodities in the evening session.

Technical Outook for evening session – 19 February ’13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)
Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver Mar’13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Feb'13 Nymex Crude Oil Feb’13 Natural Gas Feb’13 Copper Feb ’13 Zinc Feb’13 Lead Feb’13 Aluminum Feb’13 Nickel Feb’13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 30072 1599 55950 29.53 6346 5143 94.75 8017 437.6 114.2 127.5 111.4 Support 1 30124 1604 56086 29.7 6368 5164 95.15 8071 439.3 114.95 128.15 112.4 CMP 30178 1611.6 56210 30 6390 5179 95.4 8083 439.7 115.2 128.4 112.75 Resistance1 30251 1616 56380 30.15 6423 5210 96 8160 443.3 116.35 129.9 114 Resistance 2 30330 1623 56550 30.33 6456 5235 96.45 8205 445 116.8 130.6 114.85

Important Events for Today
Indicator Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes German ZEW Economic Sentiment ZEW Economic Sentiment Mortgage Delinquencies Country Japan EU EU US Time (IST) 5:20 am 3:30 pm 3:30 pm 19th-24th Actual 48.2 42.4 Forecast 35.3 35.5 Previous 31.5 31.2 7.40% Impact Medium High Medium Medium

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