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Waiting line analysis

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- Chap 007
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- 236020797-PERT-CPM.pdf
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- 225 Final Questions
- Ba731 Hw Problems
- Tugas 2
- Chap 004
- Solution to HW Problems-Waiting Lines
- Problemas
- Chap 003
- Chap 002
- Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models (2)

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Customers arrive at a bakery at an average rate of 18 per hour on weekday mornings. The arrival distribution can be described by a Poisson distribution with a mean of 18. Each clerk can serve a customer in an average of four minutes; this time can be described by an exponential distribution with a mean of 4.0 minutes. A) What are the arrival and service rates? B) Compute the average number of customers being served at any time (assuming that system utilization is less than 1). C) Suppose it has been determined that the average number of customers waiting in line is 3.6. Compute the average number of customers in the system (i.e. waiting in line or being served), the average time customers wait in line, and the average time in the system. D) Determine the system utilization for M=2, 3 and 4 servers.

Example-1: Solution

Given : = 18 customers/hr,1 / = 4 minutes A) Arrival Rate = 18 customers/hr, Service Rate = 60 / 4 = 15 customers/hr

B) r = r=

18 15

C) Lq = 3.6 customers, L s , Wq , Ws = ? L s = L q + r = 3.6 + 1.2 = 4.8 customers 3.6 = 0.20 hrs 18 1 1 Ws = Wq + = 0.20 + = 0.267 hrs 15 Wq = Lq

D) =

Example-2

An Airline is planning to open a satellite ticket desk in a new shopping plaza, staffed by one ticket agent. It is estimated that requests for tickets and information will average 15 per hour, and request rates will have a Poisson distribution. Service time is assumed to be exponentially distributed. Previous experience with similar satellite operations suggests that mean service time should average about three minutes per request. Determine each of the following: A) B) C) D) E) System utilization. Percent of time the server (agent) will be idle. The expected number of customers waiting to be served. The average time customers will spend in the system. the probability of zero customers in the system and the probability of four customers in

the system.

Example-2: Solution

Given : = 15 requests/hr, (1 / ) = 3 minutes

A) Arrival Rate = 15 requests/hr, Service Rate = 60 / 3 = 20 requests/hr 15 = = = 0.75 M 1(20)

C) Lq = D) Ws = 15 2 2 = = 2.25 requests ( ) 20( 20 15) Lq

15 E) P0 = 1 = 1 = 0.25 20

Example-3

Alpha Taxi and Hauling Company has seven cabs stationed at the airport. The company has determined that during the late-evening hours on weeknights, customers request cabs at a rate that follows the Poisson distribution with a mean of 6.6 per hour. Service time is exponential with a mean of 50 minutes per customer. Assume that there is one customer per cab and that taxis return to the airport. Find each of the following: A) Average number of customers in line. B) Probability of zero customers in the system. C) Average waiting time for an arrival not immediately served. D) Probability that an arrival will have to wait for service. E) System Utilization.

Example-3: Solution

Given : = 6.6 requests/hr, (1 / ) = 50 minutes, M = 7 taxis(servers)

A) Service Rate = 60 / 50 = 1.2 requests/hr, From Table 19 - 4, Lq = 1.674 requests

6.6 = = 5 .5 1 .2

C) Wa =

D) Wq = PW = Wq Wa

Lq

E) =

6 .6 = 0.786 7(1.2)

Example-4

Alpha Taxi and Hauling Company also plans to have cabs at the new rail station. The expected arrival rate is 4.8 customers per hour, and the service rate (including return time to the rail station) is expected to be 1.5 per hour. How many cabs will be needed to achieve an average time in line of 20 minutes or less?

Example-4: Solution

Given : = 4.8 requests/hr, = 1.5 requests/hr, M = ? taxis(servers) for Wq = 20 min

Solution : r=

= 4 .8 / 1 .5 = 3 .2

Lq = Wq = 4.8(20 / 60) = 1.6 requests

Wq = 20 min

From Table 19 - 4, for Wq 20 min, Lq 1.6 requests For M = 4 and r = 3.2 Lq = 2.386 For M = 5 and r = 3.2 Lq = 0.513, So M = 5 cabs are needed for Wq 20 min .

Example-5

Trucks arrive at a warehouse at a rate of 15 per hour during business hours. Crews can unload the trucks at a rate of five per hour. The high unloading rate is due to cargo being containerized. Recent changes in wage rates have caused the warehouse manager to reexamine the question of of how many crews to use. The new rates are: crew and dock cost is $100 per hour; truck and driver cost is $120 per hour.

Example-5: Solution

Given : = 15 requests/hr, = 5 requests/hr, Crew Cost = 100$/hr, Truck Waiting Cost = 120 $/hr M = ? crews(servers) for minimum Cost

Solution :

r = = 15 / 5 = 3

1 Crew Size 4 5 6 7 2=(1)x(100$) Crew Cost 400 500 600 700

Solution

3=Lq+r Ls 4.528 3.354 3.099 3.028 4=(3)x(120$) Truck Cost 543.36 402.48 371.88 363.36 5=(2)+(4) Total Cost 943.36 902.48 971.88 1063.36

Example-6

One of the features of a new machine shop will be a well-stocked crib. The manager of the shop must decide on the number of attendants needed to staff the crib. Attendants will receive $9 per hour in salary and fringe benefits. Mechanics time will be worth $30 per hour, which includes salary and fringe benefits plus two lost work time caused by waiting for parts. Based on previous experience, the manager estimates requests for parts will average 18 per hour with a service capacity of 20 requests per hour per attendant. How many attendants should be on duty if the manager is willing to assume that arrival and service rates will be Poisson-distributed? (Assume the number of mechanics is very large, so an infinite-source model is appropriate).

Example-6: Solution

Given : = 18 requests/hr, = 20 requests/hr, Attendant Cost = 9 $/hr, Mechanic Cost = 30 $/hr M = ? attendant(servers) for minimum Cost

Solution : 18 r= = 0.90 20

1 # of Attendants 1 2 3

Solution

Example-7

The following is a list of service times for three different operations: Operations A B C A) Service Time 8 minutes 1.2 hours 2 days

B) Would the calculated rates be different if there were inter-arrival times rather than service times?

Example-7: Solution

Case 1. Case 2. Case 3.

No, since we simply convert TIME into RATES, which would be same for inter-arrival times.

Example-8

A small town with one hospital has two ambulances to supply ambulance service. Requests for ambulances during non-holiday weekends average 0.8 per hour and tend to be Poisson distributed. Travel and assistance time averages one hour per call and follows an exponential distribution. Find: A. B. C. D. System utilization. The average number of customer waiting. The average time customers wait for an ambulance. The probability that both ambulances will be busy when a call comes in.

Example-8: Solution

Given : = 0.8 requests/hr, = 1 requests/hr, M = 2 ambulances(servers)

A) = B) r =

Lq

C) Wq = D)Wa = PW = Wq Wa

Example-9

Trucks are required to pass through a weighing station so that they can be checked for weight violations. Trucks arrive at the station at the rate of 40 an hour between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. Currently two inspectors are on duty during those hours, each of whom can inspect 25 trucks an hour: A. How many trucks would you expect to see at the weighing station, including those being inspected? B. If a truck was just arriving at the station, about how many minutes could the driver expect to be at the station? C. What is the probability that both inspectors would be busy at the same time? D. How many minutes, on average, would a truck that is not immediately inspected have to wait?

Example-9: Solution

Given : = 40 trucks/hr, = 25 trucks/hr, M = 2 inspectors(servers)

A) Lq = 2.844 from Table19 4, so Ls = Lq + B) Ws = Lq + 1 = 2.884 1 + = 0.1111 hrs 40 25

C) Wa = PW = Wq Wa

1 1 = = 0.1 hr M 2(25) 40

D) Wa =

Example-10

The manager of a regional warehouse must decide on the number of loading docks to request for a new facility in order to minimize the sum of dock costs and driver-truck costs. The manager has learned that each driver-truck combination represents a cost of $300 per day and that each dock plus loading crew represents a cost of $1,100 per day. A. How many docks should be requested if trucks arrive at the rate of four per day, each dock can handle five trucks per day, and both rates are Poisson? B. An employee has proposed adding new equipment that would speed up the loading rate to 5.71 trucks per day. The equipment would cost $100 per day for each dock. Should the manager invest in the new equipment?

Example-10: Solution

Given : = 4 trucks/day, = 5 trucks/day, M = ? docks(servers) for minimum Cost Truck Waiting Cost = 300$/day, Dock Cost = 1,100$/day

Solution : r = 0.80

1 Dock Capacity 1 2 2=(1)x(1100$) Dock Cost 1100 2200

Solution(A)

3=Lq+r Ls 4 0.9523 4=(3)x(300$) Truck Cost 1200 285.69 5=(2)+(4) Total Cost 2300 2485.69

= 5.71 trucks/day

1 Dock Capacity 1 2 2=(1)x(1100$) Dock Cost 1100 2200

Solution(B)

3=Lq+r Ls 2.334 1.6805 4=(3)x(300$) Truck Cost 700.2 504.15 Improvement Cost 100 200 5=(2)+(4) Total Cost 1900.2 2904.15

Example-11

The parts department of a large automobile dealership has a counter used exclusively for mechanics requests for parts. The time between requests can be modeled by a negative exponential distribution that has a mean of five minutes. A clerk can handle requests at a rate of 15 per hour, and this can be modeled by a Poisson distribution that has a mean of 15. Suppose there are two clerks at the counter. A. On average, how many mechanics would be at the counter, including those being served? B. C. D. What is the probability that a mechanic would have to wait for service? If a mechanic has to wait, how long would the average wait be? What percentage of time are the clerks idle?

E. If clerks represent a cost of $20 per hour and mechanics a cost of $30 per hour, what number of clerks would be optimal in terms of minimizing total cost?

Example-11: Solution

Given : = 12 requests/hr, = 15 requests/hr, M = 2 clerks(servers)

A)

L 1 1 = = 0.0555 and Wq = q = 0.152 / 12 = 0.01266 hrs M 2(15) 12 = 0.01266 / 0.0555 = 0.228 1 1 = = 0.0555 hr M 2(15) 12

12 = = 0.40 M 2(15) (1 ) = 1 0.4 = 0.60 = %60 idle D) =

B) Wa = PW = Wq Wa

C) Wa =

1 # of Clerks 1 2 3

Solution

Example-12

Students arrive at the Administrative Services Office at an average of one every 15 minutes, and their requests take an average of 12 minutes to be processed. The service counter is staffed by one clerk, Judy Gumshoes, who works eight hours per day. Assume Poisson arrivals and exponential service times. A. What percentage of time is Judy idle? B. How much time, on average, does a student spend waiting in line? C. How long is the (waiting) line on average? D. What is the probability that an arriving student (just before entering the Administrative Services Office) will find at least one other student waiting in line?

Example-12: Solution

Given : = 4 students/hr, = 5 requests/hr, M = 1

A) = 4 = = 0.8, (1 ) = 0.2 = 20% idle M 1(5)

4 = = 0.8 hr ( ) 5(5 4)

B) Wq =

D) Arriving Student will find at least one other student waiting there are at least 2 students in the system = P 2 P 2 = 1 P< 2 = 1 (1 ) = 0.82 = 0.64

2

Example-12 Extension

The managers of the Administrative Services Office estimate that the time a student spends waiting in line costs them (due to goodwill loss and so on) $10 per hour. To reduce the time a student spends waiting, they know that they need to improve Judys processing time (previous example). They are currently considering the following two options: A. Install a computer system, with which Judy expects to be able to complete a student request 40 percent faster (from 2 minutes per request to 1 minute and 12 second, for example). B. Hire another temporary clerk, who will work at the same rate as Judy? If the computer costs $99.50 to operate per day, while the company clerk gets paid $13 per hour, is Judy right to prefer the hired help? Assume Poisson arrival and Exponential service times.

Given : 2 Options (currently 32 students arrive per day) OPTION 1 - With Computer : = 4 students/hr, = 8.333 requests/hr (60/(12x0.6)), M = 1 OPTION 2 - With an additional Clerk(8hr/day $13/hr = $104/day) : = 4 students/hr, = 5 requests/hr, M = 2

Option 1-) Wq =

4 = = 0.1108 hr ( ) 8.333(8.333 4)

Savings in Waiting Cost = 32 students x 10$ x (0.8 - 0.1108) = 220.55$ Net Savings = Waiting Time saving - Computer Cost = 220.55 - 99.5 = 121.05$/day

Option 2-) Lq = 0.152 for M = 2 and r = Wq = Lq / = 0.152 / 4 = 0.038 Savings in Waiting Cost = 32 students x 10$ x (0.8 - 0.038) = 243.84$ Net Savings = Waiting Time saving - Extra Clerk = 243.84 - 104.0 = 139.84$/day OPTION 2 is better!

= 0.8

Example-13

The manager of a grocery store in the retirement community of Sunnyville is interested in providing good service to the senior citizens who shop at his store. Presently, the store has a separate checkout counter for senior citizens. On average, 30 senior citizens per hour arrive at the counter, according to a Poisson distribution, and are served at an average rate of 35 customers per hour, with exponential service times. Find the following operating characteristics: A. Probability of zero customers in the system. B. Utilization of the checkout clerk. C. Number of customers in the system. D. Number of customers in line. E. Time spent in the system. F. Waiting time in line.

Example-13: Solution

Given : = 30 citizens/hr, = 35 citizens/hr

30 A) P0 = 1 = 1 = 1 0.857 = 0.143 35 30 B) = = = 0.857 M 1(35)

C ) Ls =

30 = 6 citizens 35 30

D ) Lq = Ls

E ) Ws =

F ) Wq =

Ls

=

=

6 = 0.2 hr 30

5.143 = 0.1714 hr 30

Lq

Example-14

The manager of the Sunnyville grocery in the above example wants answers to the following questions: A. What service rate would be required to have customers average only eight minutes in the system? B. For that service rate, what is the probability of having more than four customers in the system? C. What service rate would be required to have only a 10 percent chance of exceeding four customers in the system?

Example-14: Solution

Given : = 30 citizens/hr, = ?

A) Ws = 8 min = 8/60 hr = 1 1 = = 37.5 citizen/hr 30

5 5

5 5

Example-15

The management of the American Parcel Service terminal in Verona, Wisconsin, is concerned about the amount of time the companys trucks are idle, waiting to be loaded. The terminal operates with four unloading bays. Each bay requires a crew of two employees, and each crew costs $30 per hour. The estimated cost of an idle truck is $50 per hour. Trucks arrive at an average rate of three per hour, according to a Poisson distribution. On average a crew can unload a semi-trailer rig in one hour, with exponential service times. A. B. C. D. E. Probability of zero customers in the system. Average utilization of the server. Average number of customers in line & in the system. Average waiting time in line & the system. What is the total hourly cost of operating the system?

Example-14: Solution

Given : = 3 trucks/hr, = 1 truck/hr (from 1/ = 1 hr/truck), M = 4 A) = 3 from Table 19 - 4 with M = 4, P0 = 0.038

B) =

C)

Lq

Wq =

1.528 = 0.5093 hr 3

D) Ls = Lq + Ws = Wq + 1

E ) Total Cost = Waiting Cost + Capacity Cost Waiting Cost = $50 Ls = 50 4.528 = $226.4 /hr Capacity Cost = (2 30) 4 = $240.0 /hr Total Cost = $226.4 /hr + $240.0 /hr = $466.4 /hr

1 = 0.5093 + = 1.5093 hr 1

Extending Model 1

Max. K customers

(1- ) n Pn = (1- K +1 ) r = 1- P0

n = 0,1,... K

Extended Model-1 formulas are applicable even if > .

( K + 1) K +1 Ls = 1- (1- K +1 )

Other measures from the basic formulas by replacing with eff= (1- PK) (Why?)

P0 = Ls = 1 / ; 1 ( / ) K +1 Pn = ( P0 )( ) n for n K;

/ ( K + 1)(/ ) K +1 ; 1 - / 1 (/ ) K +1 Ls (1 PK ) 1 Lq = Ls ; Ws = ; Wq = Ws ; (1 PK )

Littles Law Updated for Effective Arrival Rate (effective)

effective = (1 PK ) =

Ls Lq = Ws Wq

Example-15

A popular attraction at the Montreal Old Port is a street artist who will paint a caricature in about 5 minutes, exponentially distributed. Customers are willing to wait, but when there are more than 10 waiting, they are turned away. The arrival rate is 20 per hour. A. B. C. D. What percent of customers are turned away? What is the rate at which customers are turned away? What is the average number of customers in line & in the system? What is the average waiting time in line and in the system?

Example-15- Solution

= 20/hr. and = 12/hr. = / = 20/12 = 1.67, K = 11 (10 waiting in the line plus one being painted). a. P = P = [(1 - )* K ]/[1- K+1 ] 0.4 (40% of time customers have to be turned away). K 11 b. P = 0.4*20 = 8/hr. K c. Ls = /(1 - ) (K+1) K+1 /(1- K+1 ) = 9.53 Since 0.4 of arrivals are turned away, eff = (1- P ) = 12/hr. K

W = Ls / eff = 9.53/12 = 0.79, W = W - 1/ = 0.79 1/12 = 0.71hr. * 60 42.6 min. s q s

Example-16

Slicks Quick Lube is a one-bay service facility next to a busy highway. The facility has space for only one vehicle in service and three vehicles lined up to wait for service. There is no space for cars to line up on the busy adjacent highway, so if the waiting line is full (3 cars), prospective customers must drive on. The mean time between arrivals for customers seeking lube service is 3 minutes. The mean time required to perform to lube operation is 2 minutes. Both the inter-arrival times and the service times are exponentially distributed. The maximum number of vehicles in the system is four. Determine the average waiting time, the average queue length, and the probability that a customer will have to drive on.

Example-16: Solution

Given :1 / = 3 min/car, 1/ = 2 min /car So = 20 cars/hr and = 30 cars/hr, and K = 4 (= 3 waiting + 1 service)

1 / 1 20 / 30 = = 0.384 1 ( / ) K +1 1 (20 / 30) 4+1 20 P4 = ( P0 )( ) 4 = 0.384 ( ) 4 = 0.076 = 7.6% drives on 30 P0 = Ls = Ws =

1 Ls =

(1 P4 )

Ls

Wq = Ws

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