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The Emissions Gap Report 2012

The Emissions Gap Report 2012

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The Emissions Gap 2012 is a follow-on to the UNEP 2010 and 2011 reports on the global emissions gap: The Emissions Gap: A Preliminary Assessment and the Bridging the Emissions Gap respectively. The 2012 report reviews current and projected national and global emissions and provide an updated estimate of the size of the emissions gap. The report goes further to provide information on possible implication of not bridging the emissions gap, while also providing an update on the estimates of the mix of measures that could potentially help bridge the emissions gap. In order to encourage positive thinking on the national, regional and global levels with respect to bridging the emissions gap in 2020, the report reviews examples of best practice policies being implemented by countries and conditions for success on a sector-by-sector basis.
The Emissions Gap 2012 is a follow-on to the UNEP 2010 and 2011 reports on the global emissions gap: The Emissions Gap: A Preliminary Assessment and the Bridging the Emissions Gap respectively. The 2012 report reviews current and projected national and global emissions and provide an updated estimate of the size of the emissions gap. The report goes further to provide information on possible implication of not bridging the emissions gap, while also providing an update on the estimates of the mix of measures that could potentially help bridge the emissions gap. In order to encourage positive thinking on the national, regional and global levels with respect to bridging the emissions gap in 2020, the report reviews examples of best practice policies being implemented by countries and conditions for success on a sector-by-sector basis.

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Published by: United Nations Environment Programme on Feb 22, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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01/22/2014

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The “emissions gap” in 2020 is calculated by working out
the diference between global emissions consistent with the
2°C target and expected emissions.

Figure 3.2 shows that the emissions gap compared to
the Bridging the Gap Report has increased by about 1 to 2
GtCO2e/yr for the pledge cases and by about 2 GtCO2e/yr for
the business-as-usual case (BaU). Reasons for this are given
in Chapter 2.

The emissions gap in 2020 between BaU emissions and
the emissions level consistent with a “likely” chance of
staying within the 2°C target (44 GtCO2e/yr) is 14 GtCO2e/
yr. The gaps between the four pledge cases and a “likely”
chance of staying within the 2°C target are as follows:
• Case 1 – “Unconditonal pledges, lenient rules” = 13
GtCO2e/yr (range 9-16 GtCO2e/yr)
• Case 2 – “Unconditonal pledges, strict rules” = 10
GtCO2e/yr (range 7-14 GtCO2e/yr)
• Case 3 – “Conditonal pledges, lenient rules” = 11
GtCO2e/yr (range 7-15 GtCO2e/yr)
• Case 4 – “Conditonal pledges, strict rules” = 8 GtCO2e/
yr (range 4-11 GtCO2e/yr)

Since the frst UNEP Emissions Gap Report (UNEP, 2010),
there has been a signifcant increase in the smallest estmate
of the emissions gap for 2°C, from 5 to 8 GtCO2e/yr for Case
4. The maximum gap extent, (Case 1) has increased from 7
to 13 GtCO2e/yr. These increases stem from higher estmates
of emission levels implied by the pledges, based on more
elaborate analysis made possible by countries clarifying the
meaning of their pledges. The median emission levels in line
with a “likely” chance of staying below 2°C have not changed
since the 2010 report (UNEP, 2010).

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