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Peer to Peer Lending Analysis Conclusions

Peer to Peer Lending Analysis Conclusions

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Published by Ray Garcia
A research project in using pattern recognition to analyze Peer to Peer lending data. Project was part of guidance that I gave to a students in a Pattern Recognition course at MIT Media Lab Center for Future Banking. I provide the guidance on the business topic and line of inquiry. The findings are relevant to Banks considering entering the peer to peer lending market.
A research project in using pattern recognition to analyze Peer to Peer lending data. Project was part of guidance that I gave to a students in a Pattern Recognition course at MIT Media Lab Center for Future Banking. I provide the guidance on the business topic and line of inquiry. The findings are relevant to Banks considering entering the peer to peer lending market.

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Published by: Ray Garcia on Feb 26, 2009
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04/02/2013

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NETWORK ECONOMIES

peer-to-peer lending Quantitative Analysis Review
Pattern Recognition MIT Media Lab Class

January 16th 2009
contact: Ray Garcia rgarcia@media.mit.edu

Copyright 2009

OVERVIEW

Synopsis of Research Results
• • • • • • • • • Predictive Accuracy Predictable with 80% accuracy Loan conversion and defaults Able to detect borrowers financial health by payment record Social Factors Increase odds of getting a loan when financial features are similar Evidence of preferential attachment with threshold number of bids Probable lender biases Demonstrated the textual information influences a loan Shows that images posted by borrower matter

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OVERVIEW

Business Implications
• Tools may need to be provided • For borrowers who need help to increase their odds of getting a loan • For lenders to detect pending defaults. • For P2P to manage risk • Existing Social Networks should be exploited • As loan volume increases the likelihood of similar financials becomes greater therefore the social aspects of assessing the quality of the borrower becomes more important. • User may be reluctant to build a social network on a P2P site when they have already done so elsewhere • Social networks may have a natural affinity for lending therefore increasing loan volumes.
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OVERVIEW

Recommendations
• Continue academic research with peer review publication for validation • Complete a statistical profiling of full set of p2p data (not sampling) • Use existing text, social, images, to determine qualitative voice of customer • Analysis tools needed before having a secondary market of bundled loans • Develop game model of p2p lending using info-economics theory • Simulate social interaction networks impact on p2p lending model • Test predictive model simulated against similar data samples
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INTRODUCTION

Pattern Recognition Class
• MIT ML Professor Roz Picard Phd. teaching the course • Teaching Assistant, Dawei Shen (Phd. candidate in Viral Communications) • CFB Events invite Prosper.com and Virgin Money to present at MIT • MIT Faculty and students take an interest in Peer to Peer Lending • CFB (Ray Garcia) presents P2P Lending to the Pattern Recognition class. • 7 researchers (students in class) interested in Peer to Peer Lending • 2 Teams research P2P Lending using Pattern Recognition

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INTRODUCTION

Research Teams analyzing P2P Lending
• Lending Activity Team • Coco Krumme • Charlie DeTar • Matt Aldrich • Ernesto MartinezVillalpando Social Capital Impact Team • Sergio Herrero • Rahul Bhattacharyya • Aithne Sheng-Ying Pao

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INTRODUCTION

Outline of Analysis
• Research Inquiry • Review of prior P2P analysis using descriptive statistics • Analytical results: classification, feature selection, neural networks • Suggested tools / applications for borrowers, lenders, P2P vendor • Conclusions

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RESEARCH INQUIRY

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Analysis from several perspectives
• Borrowers: how to improve chances of getting a loan? • Lenders: how to maximize returns by choosing the best loans? • Social Interaction: what are the implications of the network relationships • P2P Vendor: • increase loan conversion, • create tools to help borrowers and lenders • identify loans before default • P2P stakeholders & competitors: • what borrower profiles are best served by P2P versus a traditional lender?
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P2P RESEARCH

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Data Used in the Analysis

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P2P RESEARCH

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Descriptive Statistics
• Data from past 3 years: 340K listings, 29K loans • Distribution of credit scores, loan status

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P2P RESEARCH

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Descriptive Statistics
• Geographical distribution of members
Darker green indicates more members                                                

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P2P RESEARCH

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Previous Research Findings by Stanford GSB
• Research used Regression analysis of financial and social factors • Group membership and endorsement increases loan funding significantly • Credit Score and Verified Bank Account are financial factors most correlated with high funding rate
• Reference: http://www.prosper.com/Downloads/Research/Prosper_Regression_Project-Fundability_Study.pdf

CURRENT analysis is multi-factor, utilizes advanced feature selection, considers unequal prior probabilities and a variety of data models
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ANALYTICAL RESULTS

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Data reveals patterns

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ANALYTICAL RESULTS

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Loan conversion/default predicted ~80% accuracy
• Predict loan conversion, default with ~80% accuracy
(neural net not shown)

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ANALYTICAL RESULTS

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Optimal feature set to predict conversion/default
• Identified 96 features (including text, social metrics) • Ranked using floating feature selection

Top 8 features: - Amount Delinquent

- Open Credit Lines - Amount Requested  - Borrower’s Max Rate - Credit Grade - Debt to Income Ratio - Funding Option - Endorsement

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ANALYTICAL RESULTS

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

The crucial 20%: human judgment & text analysis
• Human judgment is key in loan funding - factors such as description, image • # prior bids counts (75% threshold): we want to fund alreadysupported listings

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TOOLS Decision

Tree Analysis help borrowers get loans (increase loan conversion)
• Decision tree predicts loan conversions and defaults

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

• Borrower can control requested amount and interest rate • Interactive tool to help borrower set optimal amount, rate

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TOOLS

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Decision Tree to identify probability of loan defaulting (before lending)
• Before lending, use decision trees to identify risky borrowers • Tool for default insurance, securitization of loans

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TOOLS

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Identify loans pre-default using Hidden Markov Model
• 3-state “financial health” model • Prosper could offer support to borrowers before default • prediction error decreases with longer observation series

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Analysis of P2P Social Impact

Research Inquiry on Social Capital
• How social capital influence peer-to-peer lending?

• “Friends”: Direct relationship. intends to motivate other lenders to bid on second degree friends based on indirect trust. • “Endorsements”: Feedback on previous transactions with other users. • “Groups”: Users are allowed to form communities. Group members help each other and the group rating depends on their performance. Peer pressure

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FEATURE SELECTION

Analysis of P2P Social Impact

Social versus Financial Components
Social Profile
• Group Leader Reward Rate • Endorsement Number • First Degree Friend Number • Second Degree Friend Number • Group Rating • Group Size

Financial Profile
• Borrower Maximum Rate • Credit Grade • Debt To Income Ratio • Amount Requested • Is Borrower Homeowner

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FEATURE SELECTION

Analysis of P2P Social Impact

Importance of Social Features
• Most important features • Credit Grade • 3 Bidding Forces • Least important Social Capital features: • Group Leader Reward Rate • Group Size • Number of first degree Friends 3 bidding forces involving “social  interaction” behavior • Bids from First Friends • Bids from Second Friends • Bids from Group Members

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Analysis of P2P Social Impact

Cluster Analysis of Bids

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Analysis of P2P Social Impact

Cluster Analysis of Group Rating

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Analysis of P2P Lending Activity

Conclusions from Lending Activity Analysis
1. Data is separable and has identifiable patterns
2. Non-obvious features do play a significant role 3. Factoring Human judgment is important consideration Recommendation: Create useful tools for borrowers and lenders to help foster P2P activity. These tools should be based on decision tree and HMM models. Development of risk models should be explored using these techniques.

m: Coco Krumme, Charlie deTar, Matt Aldrich, Ernesto Martinez-Villalpan
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Analysis of P2P Social Impact

Conclusion from Social Impact Analysis
“Social features” do not replace “financial features”. But….they are the best complement for differentiation when comparing similar financial profiles. Users do not have time to maintain many social profiles Recommendation: P2P lending should use existing social networks as a foundation, instead of building their own.

Team: Aithne Sheng-Ying Pao, Sergio Herrero, Rahul Bhattacharyya
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P2P RESEARCH

Analysis of P2P Lending Activity
loan or no loan? default or pay?

Analysis Method
Introduction Descriptive statistics feature  selection

separation  methods

graphical  models Suggested TOOLS  for  Peer to Peer Lending

greedy

Neural Nets Linear Discriminant Analysis Support Vector Machine

decision  trees bayesian  networks

floating Principal Component Analysis

experimental  methods

Hidden  Markov Model  loan performance

mechanical  turk

group  performance
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Analysis of P2P Social Impact

Summary of Pattern Recognition Models Applied
Conclusions remain consistent across different Models
• Descriptive Statistics • Linear Regression • Principal Component Analysis • Support Vector Machine • Artificial Neural Network • Linear Discriminant Analysis • K-Nearest Neighbor • Fisher Algorithm • Pudil’s Algorithm • Bayesian Nets • Decision Trees • Hidden Markov Model • Human Qualitative Classification

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References for Further Study
• MIT Pattern Recognition Course Information:

http://courses.media.mit.edu/2008fall/mas622j/

• Complete MIT Pattern Recognition Study: • • http://courses.media.mit.edu/2008fall/mas622j/Projects/CharlieCocoErnestoMatt/#contents http://courses.media.mit.edu/2008fall/mas622j/Projects/SergioAithneRahul/SocialInteractionsInP2PLending.pdf

• Prior Research • • • • Prosper.com for information on p2p lending Stanford Business School regression analysis of prosper.com data http://www.prosper.com/Downloads/Research/Prosper_Regression_Project-Fundability_Study.pdf Stanford Podcast by Chris Larsen CEO of Prosper.com http://ecdev.stanford.edu/authorMaterialInfo.html?mid=1576

• Books: • • The Complete Guide To Prosper.com by Sean Bauer Happy About People-to-People Lending With Prosper.com by Roger Steciak

• Competitor list: • VirginMoneyUS.com, Zopa.com, LendingClub.com, Loanio.com, Circlelending.com, FundMyNotes.com

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