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130304 Economic Outlook and Commodity Prices

130304 Economic Outlook and Commodity Prices

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03/08/2013

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Economic Outlook and Commodity Prices

Vivek Tulpulé Head of Economics and Markets 4 March 2013

2

Cautionary statement

This presentation has been prepared by Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited (“Rio Tinto”) and consisting of the slides for a presentation concerning Rio Tinto. By reviewing/attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions. Forward-looking statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this presentation, including, without limitation, those regarding Rio Tinto’s financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations (including development plans and objectives relating to Rio Tinto’s products, production forecasts and reserve and resource positions), are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Rio Tinto, or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forwardlooking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding Rio Tinto’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which Rio Tinto will operate in the future. Among the important factors that could cause Rio Tinto’s actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others, levels of actual production during any period, levels of demand and market prices, the ability to produce and transport products profitably, the impact of foreign currency exchange rates on market prices and operating costs, operational problems, political uncertainty and economic conditions in relevant areas of the world, the actions of competitors, activities by governmental authorities such as changes in taxation or regulation and such other risk factors identified in Rio Tinto's most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") or Form 6-Ks furnished to the SEC. Forward-looking statements should, therefore, be construed in light of such risk factors and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match or exceed its historical published earnings per share.

3

Macroeconomic influence on commodity prices will continue through 2013

China cyclical momentum and reform process

OECD financial fragility Loose monetary conditions - Quantitative Easing and potential unwinding Cost escalation and supply cycles

4

Mixed performance in OECD
European bond yield fall highlighting the reduced risk of Eurozone breakup
8.0

Modest US recovery while Eurozone and Japan still weak 65 Above 50 = Expansion 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 Jan-08 US Eurozone Japan

7.5

Ten year bond yields

7.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

Spain

Italy

Below 50 = Contraction

4.0 May-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Jan-12 Jan-13 Apr-12 Feb-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Mar-12 Feb-13 Jul-12

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

5

Expectations for a strong first half in China and moderation in the second half
A sharp increase in bank credit and banker’s acceptances is supporting current pick up
2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 J-10 J-10 J-11 J-11 J-12 J-12 J-13 New Banker's Acceptance Bills New Trust and Entrusted Loans New Bank Loans

Inflation is benign but residential housing costs are a leading indicator of a pick-up in CPI
108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 J-10 J-11 CPI J-12 CPI Residence J-13

Total Social Financing, 3mma

Inflation

Leading indicators have picked up pace; decline in flash February PMI likely due to CNY effects
60

RMB Billion

Land sales have increased sharply with the pick up in residential sales and prices
110

Leading Index & HSBC PMI

50% 30% 10%

Residential Land Sales Growth in133 Cities
3mma YoY

55

105

50 J-08 45 HSBC 40 Economic Climate Leading Index-RHS J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13

100

‐10% J‐10
95

D‐10

J‐11

D‐11

J‐12

D‐12

‐30% ‐50%

90

6

Aluminium capacity additions and stocks continue to weigh on market
Outside of China financing deals will continue to tie up metal away from the physical market
Greater semi’s exports from China risk market over supply (‘000tpy, Aluminium equivalent)

Strong growth in China alumina imports has been due to concerns over availability of imported bauxite
3500 China bauxite and alumina imports (expressed as Kt AL2O3 equivalent)

3000 Alumina 2500 Bauxite (Kt AL2O3)

2000

1500

1000

500

0 Jul-2010 Source: Goldman Sachs Source: GTIS

Jan-2011

Jul-2011

Jan-2012

Jul-2012

7

Copper short term small surplus, but longer term supply response required in an increasingly challenged industry
LME stocks have been rising, particularly in Europe as warehouse owners attract material to earn rent
500,000 450,000 120,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 20,000 50,000 5 0 Jan 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Feb 12 Jan 13 Jul 12 Oct 12 May 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Mar 12 Apr 12 0 0 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 60,000 20 100,000 30 Highly Probable Projects 80,000 25 Base Case Production Capability Primary Demand 35 Possible Projects Probable Projects LME Copper inventories by location, t 140,000

Expectations of near term supply growth, but still a need for significant new supply in long term
40 Global copper production and primary demand Mt

40,000

15

10

Global

Europe (rhs) Source: WoodMacKenzie

8

Long run demand fundamentals are strong for TiO2
Pigment consumption per capita 1995-2011 Pigment production accounts for 90% of TiO2 use
Approximate population in 2020 shown

9

Structural supply constraints remain a long term challenge for coals
Chinese and Indian imports - price opportunism and structural supply deficits
Mt

Alternative to blast furnace technology unlikely at long run HCC prices below $200/t based on consensus prices
250 HCC $/t FOB Australia

250

China India Newc

Thermal Coal US$/t

250

200

200

200

150

150

150

100

100

100

50

50

50

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

0 DRI (Gas) + EAF with carbon DRI (Gas) + EAF without carbon

Source: Salva, GTIS, Global Coal Error bars are +/- 2 Stdevs

Source: Rio Tinto analysis. Assuming long run consensus prices.

10

Iron ore supply continues to be exposed to downside shocks
Iron ore forward curve in backwardation
US$/dmt. FOB WA, real 2013 200 Forward Curve (1 Mar 2013) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Mar‐10 180 Platts IODEX 62%Fe 160 140 120 100 80 60 10.0% 40 20 0 Jan‐08 5.0% 25.0% East coast Indian exports share of seaborne trade

Indian exports continue to be constrained. We expect a return to market, at much lower levels
Annualised (Mt) 
200 West coast 35.0% 40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

15.0%

Dec‐10

Sep‐11

Jun‐12

Mar‐13

Dec‐13

Sep‐14

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

0.0% Jan‐13

Source: Platts, SGX

Source: Louis Dreyfus, Port Authorities, RT Analysis

11

Steep iron ore cost curve provides scope for price fly-ups
2012 Industry cost curve
($/wmt CFR)
250
$/wmt CFR 

200

FMG Pilbara

Vale

BHP Pilbara
150

RTIO assets

100

IOC

50

RT Pilbara

0 0 500 1,000
Cumulative  capacity

1,500

2,000

2,500
Mtpa

Source: Rio Tinto Note: Includes shipping and sustaining capital expenditure and is adjusted for inflation and FX

12

Global peaks: finished steel per capita intensities ASEAN, Brazil, India and Africa unlikely to peak <2040
Kg per person
1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

United Arab Emirates Qatar

Small open export orientated economies Europe RoW China ASEAN


Singapore Taiwan Hong Kong Japan Sweden USA Belgium-Luxembourg Germany Norway Canada Italy Spain South Korea

• Forecast • •
China

• India Size = population at peak India and ASEAN economies expected to increase in steel intensity progressively but not peak before 2040.

Denmark Austria Finland Greece Switzerland UK France Portugal Ireland Netherlands Australia

13

Detailed China bottom-up demand analysis – example for machinery sector
Agriculture Class Tractors Compact tractors 50-69 HP Utility tractors 70-120 HP >120 HP Highpower tractors Wheeled loader Excavator 25-49 HP <15t 15-30t >30t Coal shuttle cars 20-30t 31-50t 51-100t >100t Shearer Mining vehicle 20-30 31-50t Construction Class Mining Class 20-30t 31-50t 51-100t

<5t 5t 6t >6t1 8.8Mt 6.5% 14.3Mt -0.4%

Harvester

>100 HP

Combined harvester

Steel 2012 (Mt) CAGR 2012-2030

21.2Mt 3.3%

Source: Expert surveys, Rio Tinto analysis

Appendix

15

Stylised overview of Chinese commodity demand modelling framework

City level forecasts National level macro forecasts

• Population • GDP • Consumer and Industry trends

Top down and bottom up approach leads to consistent stories across commodities demand

Volume factors Rural

Intensity factors

Building and Construction

National Industrial Commercial Residential New floor space m2

Sectors Intensity by building type kg/m2

Sectors Floor space stock Sqm

Demolition Replacement factor by product % and life cycle

Exports

Machinery and Equipment

Power Generation Agriculture Mining Construction New demand required to satisfy production

Sectors Intensity by M&E class kg/productive capacity

Sectors Stock of M&E by sector GDP

Scrap and replacement Replacement factor by product %

16

Example of breakdown used to determine commodity intensity
Commodity Cu Axle ▪ Axle housing Cockpit ▪ Control unit Engine ▪ Oil block ▪ Oil filter housing ▪ AC tubes ▪ AC condenser ▪ Motor components Hydraulics ▪ Pump housing ▪ Interface seal Radiator Transmission ▪ Gear box wear ring ▪ Wet clutch friction plate ▪ Synchronizer blocker rings ▪ Other parts Throughout ▪ Cables ▪ Gaskets ▪ Nameplates ▪ Other electrical parts Al Fe

  

   

 

  

       

            

“While HP-driven components are concentrated in the engine and transmission, weight-driven components are found throughout the tractor” - U.S. Advanced Automotive expert
Source: Expert surveys, Rio Tinto analysis

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