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The Blue Dog Coalition February 7, 2009
David M. Walker President and CEO The Peter G. Peterson Foundation and Former Comptroller General of the United States

Composition of Federal Spending
1968 1988 2008

Defense Net interest

Social Security All other spending

Medicare & Medicaid

Source: PGPF analysis of Office of Management and Budget data.

2

Federal Spending for Mandatory and Discretionary Programs
1968 1988 2008

Net Interest

Discretionary

Mandatory

Source: PGPF analysis of Office of Management and Budget data.

3

Major Fiscal Exposures
($ trillions)
2000
 Explicit liabilities
 Publicly held debt  Military & civilian pensions  Other

2008 $12.2

$6.9 & retiree health

 Commitments & contingencies
 E.g.,

0.5 13.0
3.8 2.7 6.5 --

1.4 42.9
6.6 12.7 15.7 7.9

PBGC, undelivered orders

 Implicit exposures
 Future

Social Security benefits  Future Medicare Part A benefits  Future Medicare Part B benefits  Future Medicare Part D benefits Total

$20.4

$56.4
4

Source:  PGPF analysis of 2000 and 2008 Financial Report of the United States Government. Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.  Estimates for Social Security and Medicare are at present value as of January 1 of each year  and all other data are as of September 30.  

How Big is Our Growing Fiscal Burden?
This fiscal burden can be translated and compared as follows:
Total –major fiscal exposures Total household net worth1 $56.4 trillion $56.5 trillion 99 percent $184,000 $435,000 $483,000 $48,201 $33,253

Burden/Net worth ratio
Burden2

Per person Per full-time worker Per household
Income

Median household income (2007)3 Disposable personal income per capita (2007)4
Source: PGPF analysis of US Government data.

Notes:  (1) Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts, Table B.100, 2008:Q3 (December 6, 2008); (2) Burdens are calculated using estimated total U.S.  population as of 10/1/2008, from the U.S. Census Bureau; full­time workers reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in NIPA table 6.5D (Aug. 1, 2008); and  households reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, in Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2006 (Aug. 2008; (3) U.S. Census  Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2006 (Aug. 2007); and (4) Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and  Outlays, table 2, (Nov. 29, 2007).   5

Revenues and Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP
Percent of GDP

Potential Fiscal Outcomes Under Alternative Simulation

Revenue

Source:  GAO September 2008 analysis.

6

The U.S. Federal Debt
(Percentage of GDP) Past

Civil War

SOURCE: PGPF compilation. Projections based upon official government sources.

7

Foreign Ownership Share of Federal Debt Held by the Public Has Increased
Total Debt Held by the  Public: $3.73 trillion

FY 1998

Total Debt Held by the  Public: $5.81 trillion

FY 2008

Foreign and international investors  Federal Reserve Domestic investors and state and local governments
Source: PGPF summary of Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve data. Note: Totals and percent increases may not add due to rounding 8

Key National Indicators: Where the United States Ranks
The United States may be the only superpower, but compared to most other OECD countries on selected key economic, social, and environmental indicators, on average, the U.S. ranks

17 OUT OF 28
OECD Categories for Key Indicators
(2007 OECD Factbook)
 Energy  Labor Market  Science &  Environment  Education  Public

 Population/Migration  Macroeconomic

 Quality of

Trends
 Prices

Life  Economic Globalization

Tech.

Finance
9

Source:  PGPF analysis of 2007 OECD Factbook.

The Way Forward

10

These Challenges Go Beyond  Numbers and Dollars— It’s About

11

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