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Currency Daily Report, March 5

Currency Daily Report, March 5

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Published by Angel Broking
5th March, 2013
5th March, 2013

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Published by: Angel Broking on Mar 06, 2013
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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| March 5, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam – Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Broking Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

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Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday| March 5, 2013

Highlights
Spanish Unemployment Change to 59,400 in the last month. UK’s Construction PMI declined by to 46.8-mark in February. European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -10.6-mark in March. UK’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor rose by 2.7 percent in February. Japan’s Average Cash Earnings increased by 0.7 percent in January. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of expectations that US Federal Reserve will continue with its stimulus measures program to boost the economic growth in the world’s largest economy.

Market Highlights (% change)
Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI 5698.5 18878.0 14127.82 1525.2 15542.2 2013.2 58497.8 11652.3 90.12 1572.10 2845.70 7740.25 102.09 0.0 Prev. day -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.5 -0.8 -0.7 0.2 0.4 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.3

as on March 4, 2013 WoW -2.7 -2.3 2.5 2.5 -5.0 0.2 3.3 -0.1 -3.2 -0.9 -2.7 -1.1 -0.2 MoM -4.8 -4.4 1.8 2.0 -6.4 2.8 -1.8 2.6 -6.3 -6.2 -10.7 -1.4 0.7 YoY 6.3 3.2 8.9 11.4 -8.0 3.9 -12.6 19.2 -15.5 -8.7 -15.4 -9.8 -1.6

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) depreciated marginally by 0.1 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the later part of the trade which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, expectations that US Federal Reserve will continue with its stimulus measures program also exerted downside pressure on the currency. In addition, US equities also traded on a positive note in yesterday’s trade which also acted as an unfavorable factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.23 and closed at 82.26 on Monday.

Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr’13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar’13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of weak global and domestic market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX in the early part of the trade. Further, disappointment over the budget announcement in the last week along with record high current account deficit also added downside pressure on the currency. Further, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of selling of dollars from exporters and corporates in the last hour of the trading session. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 55.13 and closed at 54.95 against dollar on Monday. For the month of March 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.359.20 crores th ($69.03 million) as on 4 March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.46,139.0 crores ($8,565.60 million) till 4 March 2013. Outlook

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Mar’13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Mar’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.26 54.95 55.18 55.18 Prev. day -0.1 -0.1 -0.12 -0.13

as on March 4, 2013 WoW 0.6 -1.8 2.40 2.41 MoM 3.4 -3.1 3.18 3.19 YoY 3.5 -9.9 10.83 10.84

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, country’s services PMI is expected to come on a positive which will also support an upside in the currency.
Trend US Dollar/INR Mar’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for March 5, 2013 Support 55.0/54.90 Resistance 55.35/55.50

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Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday| March 5, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated marginally by 0.01 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of positive economic data from Spain, mixed global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. However, as the uncertainty in the Italy persists further appreciation in the currency was capped. Spanish Unemployment Change declined by 72,700 to 59,400 in February as against a rise of 1,32,100 in January. European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -10.6-mark in March from earlier fall of 3.9level in February. European Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.6 percent in February as compared to decline of 0.2 percent a month ago. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3031 and closed at 1.3025 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In today’s session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of optimistic global market sentiment coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectation of positive Retail sales data from Europe may act supportive for the currency. However, Italy and Spain service PMI is expected to decline which will cap the upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Mar’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.45/71.25 71.90/72.30 valid for March 5, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Mar ’13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Mar’13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3025 71.46 71.65 71.7 Prev. day 0.0 0.2 -0.38 -0.37

as on March 4, 2013 WoW -0.3 -0.4 0.19 0.20 MoM -3.6 0.8 -1.19 -1.19 8.64 8.67 YoY -1.3

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5114 82.998 82.96 Prev. day 0.52 0.50 -0.03

as on March 4, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday taking cues from positive construction PMI data from the country coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp appreciation in the currency was prevented on the back of mixed global market sentiments. UK’s Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.9 points to 46.8-mark in the month of February as compared to rise of 48.7-level in January. British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor rose by 2.7 percent in February from earlier rise of 1.9 percent in January. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5116 and closed at 1.5114 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in today’s trade on the back of account of positive global market sentiment coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp rally in the currency will be capped as services PMI is expected to come on a negative note. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Mar ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for March 5, 2013 Support 82.75/82.55 Resistance GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Mar’13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Mar ’13 Futures (MCX-SX)

WoW -0.3 1.59 1.62

MoM -4.1 -1.13 -1.33

YoY -4.6 5.84 4.69

82.94

-0.03

1.57

-1.37

4.69

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

83.20/83.40

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Currencies Daily Report
Tuesday| March 5, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.1 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable monetary base economic data from the country also acted as a positive factor for the currency. Japan’s Average Cash Earnings increased by 0.7 percent in January as against a decline of 1.7 percent a month ago. The Yen touched an intraday high of 93.15 and closed at 93.46 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned on account of favorable cash earnings data from the country. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Mar ’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for March 5, 2013 Support 58.80/58.65 Resistance 59.25/59.60

JPY (% change)
Last 93.46 0.5873 59.02 59.02 Prev day -0.1 0.10 -0.73 -0.76

as on March 5, 2013 WoW 1.8 0.72 2.73 2.69 MoM 1.2 -98.98 2.31 2.31 YoY 14.3 -2.97 -3.41 -3.40

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Mar’13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Mar’13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on March 5, 2013
Indicator BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y Average Cash Earnings y/y Halifax HPI m/m Spanish Services PMI Italian Services PMI ECOFIN Meetings Services PMI Retail Sales m/m ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Country UK Japan UK Europe Europe Europe UK Europe US Time (IST) 5:31am 7:00am 5th-7th 1:45pm 2:15pm All Day 3:00pm 3:30pm 8:30pm Actual 2.7% 0.7% Forecast -0.3% 0.4% 47.8 43.6 51.5 0.3% 55.0 Previous 1.9% -1.7% -0.2% 47.0 43.9 51.5 -0.8% 55.2 Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High

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