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Telephone Interviewing Approximately 2,200 Atherton voters who are estimated to be likely voters in the November 2009 election, with adjustment for off-year election for a tax measure June 3 to 14, 2009 15 minutes
Sample Size
Margin of Error
300
5.3%
Note: The data have been weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of the likely voters in the Town of Atherton in terms of their gender, age, political party type, and the actual proportion of respondents on record as homeowners.
To continue providing funding for Town general purposes, such as, but not limited to,
[RANDOMIZE A THROUGH D]
A. police and public safety services B. park facility maintenance and improvements C. street and sidewalk maintenance and improvements; and D. storm drain construction and maintenance Shall an ordinance be adopted to continue the existing Town of Atherton Parcel Tax, plus a 10 percent increase?
Likely Off-Year Tax Voters* Sample size Margin of error Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA 300 + 5.3% 30% 29% 13% 19% 9%
Likely November 2009 Voters 201 + 6.5% 37% 27% 10% 16% 11%
Likely Mail Ballot 2010 Voters 220 + 6.3% 36% 27% 11% 16% 10%
Likely June 2010 Voters 254 + 5.8% 32% 29% 13% 17% 10%
* These are registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2009 election, but have been adjusted for turnout in an off-year election for a tax measure.
80%
60%
26%
40%
30% 23%
20%
0% 15% increase
10% increase
5% increase
Less than acre (n = 13) 15% increase to $518 per year 10% increase to $495 per year 5% increase to $473 per year
Probably no 15% 6% 0%
DK/NA 5% 0% 0%
Between and acre (n = 42) 15% increase to $656 per year 10% increase to $627 per year 5% increase to $599 per year
DK/NA 8% 5% 7%
Between acre and 2 acres (n = 243) 15% increase to $863 per year 10% increase to $825 per year
38%
29%
9%
18%
7%
* There were too few responses to report support at various tax increases for respondents with a dwelling size of 2 acres or more.
DK/NA 12%
One alternative to this measure would be simply to continue the existing parcel tax, which is due to expire in June 2010, without an increase. This will allow the Town to continue funding some, but not all, of the current and planned resident services.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
Likely Off-Year Tax Voters* Sample size Margin of error Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No 300 + 5.3% 48% 21% 6% 13%
Likely Mail Ballot 2010 Voters 220 + 6.3% 52% 18% 5% 14%
DK/NA
12%
12%
11%
10%
* These are registered voters, who are likely to vote in the November 2009 election, but have been adjusted for turnout in an off-year election for a tax measure.
80%
60%
24%
40%
19%
20%
24%
26%
Probably yes Definitely yes
20%
34%
36%
36%
36%
38%
0%
Ongoing
12 years
9 years
7 years
5 years
Measure Features
No Effect
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes. The responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0, Somewhat Less Likely = -1, and Much Less Likely = -2.
Positive Arguments I
No Effect
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes. The responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0.
Positive Arguments II
No Effect
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes. The responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0.
Negative Arguments
No Effect
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes. The responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0.
To continue providing funding for Town general purposes, such as, but not limited to, Initial Ballot Test 30% 29% 13% 19% 9%
[HOLD RANDOMIZATION FROM QUESTION 1]
26%
25%
15%
25%
9%
0%
Definitely yes Definitely no
50%
Probably yes DK/NA
100%
Probably no
A. police and public safety services B. park facility maintenance and improvements C. street and sidewalk maintenance and improvements; and D. storm drain construction and maintenance Shall an ordinance be adopted to continue the existing Town of Atherton Parcel Tax, plus a 10 percent increase?
Likely Off-Year Tax Voters* Sample size Margin of error Definitely Yes Probably Yes 300 + 5.3% 26% 25%
Probably No
Definitely No DK/NA
15%
25% 9%
11%
21% 12%
13%
22% 11%
14%
22% 11%
* These are registered voters, who are likely to vote in the November 2009 election, but have been adjusted for turnout in an off-year election for a tax measure.
The above classification is based on responses to the initial and final ballot questions: Voters classified under the Strong Support group supported the measure in both ballot tests, while their Strong Opposition counterparts opposed the measure in both tests, or declined to state an opinion in the final test. Those classified under Potential Support changed their minds about support between the initial and final ballot tests.
Likely Off-Year Tax Voters* Sample size Margin of error Strong Support Potential Support Strong Opposition 300 + 5.3% 27% 42% 31%
Likely Mail Ballot 2010 Voters 220 + 6.3% 32% 41% 27%
* These are registered voters, who are likely to vote in the November 2009 election, but have been adjusted for turnout in an off-year election for a tax measure.
69 percent total support (48% definite and 21% probable), which could be as low as 64 percent or as high as 74 percent, with a 5-percent margin of error.
Parcel tax continuation plus 10 percent increase did not get sufficient support (59% and 51% in initial and final ballot tests, respectively). Lowest tested annual increase of 5 percent did not get the requisite two-thirds support, at 65 percent (39% definite ad 26% probable), which could be as low as 60 percent or as high as 70 percent. Optimal duration for the parcel tax would be no more than 5 years, and would also depend on the annual tax rate. Total support for 5 years was at 64 percent, which could be as low as 59 percent or as high as 69 percent. November 2009 is a viable election for a no-increase renewal. Similar support levels to a mail ballot 2010 or June 2010 election.
Page 19 June 2009
Town of Atherton