Professional Documents
Culture Documents
East Africa
19th February 2013
Agenda
Market Overview (Key Indicators 2010, Kenya IT Market Value (US$M) Forecast 2010-2015, Kenya IT spend by Vertical segments) ICT Ecosystem Analysis Profiling of top systems integrators in the market, challenges faced, national and regional presence and the market outlook. Residential Usage and Penetration Highlights Benchmarking Kenya
Market Overview
Going by various Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and IDC's market sizing for the Kenyan ICT market, the sector has performed well with good growth in value, usage and access (across most sectors) between 2010 and 2011. As more infrastructure is put in place the ICT expenditure focus will shift to services (maintenance, support, implementation, customization, etc) and software (custime software development, mobility, business analytics, etc). The cost of devices and internet services still remains a constraint that keeps more users from adopting ICT and current users from increasing their usage. Less advanced regional markets (in terms of skills, ICT sophistication and size of projects) in Eastern Africa continue to attract the attention of several local players who are expanding their presence to these markets. Overall the Kenyan ICT market continues to thrive and from 2013 onwards, the most notable issues will include: the new government structure as county governments wean themselves away from national governments to become more autonomous, increased investment by vendors, increased venture capital activity aimed at start ups and developments with the 4G shared network infrastructure.
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Change % 162% 83% 14% 27% 30% 70% -26% 12% 35%
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-25.8% 64.2% 18,000 $18.5 72.0% 24,322 $24.4 12.2% 35.1% 32.1%
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12 13 14 15
24,968,891
63.2%
28,080,771
71.3%
12.5%
12.8%
Universities are connected to broadband services 27 Number of educational institutions connected to national network 28 29 30 31 Number of educational campuses connected to national network Number of students connected to broadband Number of universities connected to broadband Number of networked PCs per 100 students
60 74 176,000 15 6
65 78 250,000 29 5
8.3%
5.4%
42.0%
93.3%
-16.7%
The total number of households with a personal computer (PC) grew from 6.3% to 8.0%.
Internet users was recorded as 17.38 million users from 10.99 million recorded during the previous year. Fixed lines declined to 283,546 in 2012 from 355,493 in 2011, representing a decline of 25.5% during that period. The total number of students connected to broadband rose from 176,000 in 2010 to 250,000 in 2011 indicating an increase of 42% increase year on year. The number of universities connected to broadband services increased from 60 in 2010 to 65 in 2011 and mainly attributed to some educational institutions that have multiple campuses getting connected to KENET. The number of registered government domain names reduced in 2011 largely due to lack of renewal of domains mainly by local government entities (municipal and county councils). Most previously registered domains have been allowed to lapse.
ICT market spending is expected to grow at an annual compound growth rate of 9.1% between 2011 and 2016 to reach a value of US$1,596.8 million. During that period the proportion of hardware spend will decline from 81.1% to 75.7% giving room for growth of services from 10.4% to 15.1%, and software from 7.8% to 9.2% in 2016
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REVENUE BREAKDOWN
80% software or hardware 20% services 95% -100% software or hardware 0-5% services
70% hardware 20% services 10% software 75% hardware 15% services 10% software 90% hardware 5% services 5% software
REMARKS
Services revenue mainly from multinational companies and large accounts Not much value addition very few value added distributors in the local market.
Distributors
Retail
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Regional presence
While Uganda is a smaller market than both Ethiopia and Tanzania, more local players have invested there (23.9% compared to 14.1% and 19.7% respectively in the other two countries. This is mainly due to the more relaxed investment environment in Uganda.
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Traditional devices are more available at households than advanced ones There is almost 1 TV set and 1 radio set in each of the surveyed HH Mobiles are more common than other items (almost 2 per HH)
19 Copyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All = Total Sample (n=750) Base rights reserved.
57% AB
Nakuru
58% C1
37% C2 Yes No
15% D
Internet usage increases by SCL levels. It is highest in Nairobi (59%) Internet usage increases by SCL levels. It is highest in Mombasa (37%)
20 Copyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved. Base = The figure in parenthesis represents
87%
1%
Don't know
Dial-up is phased out by other developed internet connections Connections with speed less than 1Mbps are used in 41% of the HH
Base : Users of PC (493) Q31. Which of the following devices have you used to access the Internet in the past 12 months? Desktop Laptop Other mobile phone / internet enabled mobile phones Smartphone Media Tablet 9% Base : Users of Mobile Phone (746) 37% 60% 57% 78%
Communication Entertainment Work Other Personal purposes Education 57% 54% 66%
83%
28%
Base : Users of PC (519)
Respondents use PC mainly to perform personal task, especially old individuals 45+ years Entertainment and education purposes drive respondents 15-34 yrs old to use PC. These reasons decrease significantly among older users Old males (45+ yrs) tend to use PC for work reasons much more than other demographics.
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Q59. Which of the following services do you actively use on your mobile device?
2012 2011
SMS Voice services Social media Web Browsing Access to Email Entertainment Chatting (IM) PIM (personal information MMS 18%
98% 97%
Voice services SMS Access to social media websites Web Browsing Entertainment Access to Email PIM Chatting Sending MMS 15% 45% 42% 37% 35% 31% 24%
97% 96%
65%
57% 52%
50%
41% 35%
Base : Users of Mobile Phone (721) Calling and texting share respondents' main usage of the mobile (around 97-98%)
The usage of internet enabled services and PIM mainly attracts the young category (15-34 yrs). Their usage decreases by age
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Base : Users of Internet (570) The main purposes for using the internet are search for information (75%), communication with colelagues (64%) and downloading (59%) exceeding by far other reasons. Internet users 35+ yrs old perform business-oriented internet tasks (communicating with customers, scheduling appointments, etc.) more than younger users who look for more social, entertaining or educational activities online
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Cost of your Internet service Value for money spent on your Internet service Reliability of your Internet service Speed of your Internet service Customer support after sales Overall Internet service
69% 61% 70% 62% 40% 71% Neutral (Scale 4) Satisfiied (Scale 5-7)
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Learning how to use all the features of my mobile phone is important to my life now and in the future. Learning how to use the Internet better is important to my life now and in the future.
9%
13%
78% 83% 80% 28% 29% Bottom Box (scale 1-3) : Disagree Middle Box (scale 4) : Neutral Top Box (scale 5-7) : Agree 41% 32%
Having PC skills is critical to my life now and in the future. 4% Using on-line banking services is important to my life. Purchasing goods on-line is important to my life.
Learning basic ICT skills is more prominent than using sophisticated services like purchasing online or online banking Highest priority is given to learning how to use the Internet usage (83% agree), PC usage (83%) and mobile usage (78%).
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(n=750)
47%
Not aware of any services provided online Aware of them, and have used any online services more than 12 months ago Aware of them, but have not used any online services in the past 12 months 16%
34%
39%
36%
14%
14%
2011
2012
Overall awareness of e-government services is significant (53%). But their actual usage is low (23%), concentrated especially in Nyeri (23%) Survey question response options were adjusted in Phase II to include Aware of them but have not used any online services in the last 12 months
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24%
21% 31%
Overall satisfaction with e-government services is not high (not exceeding 31%) The majority of the users of such services were neutral in rating their experience while using such services
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Q71. Are there any other government services you would like to see available on line?
Registration of National ID Cards. Online admission into Secondary / public universities. Appointment /job application/employment opportunities. Application/ issuance of Birth certificates. Voting online. Payment of Land Rates. Lists of corrupt High Ranked Government Officials. Application of passport/other travelling document. Online booking in government hospitals/health services appointment. Variety of government businesses. Application of CDF bursaries. Registration of new business online . Online checking of Motor Vehicles ownership. Business purposes/International document to do business with other countries and also between local businesses. 12% 9% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
33%
Base : Total Sample, DK excluded (725) Unavailability of computers accompanied with theirs high cost as well as the costs of internet connections are the main barriers to the use of ICT
Benchmarking Kenya
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Benchmarking
Internet user penetration
KPI Kenya YoY RSA YoY Nigeria YoY Rwanda YoY Ukraine YoY Philipines YoY Egypt YoY Morocco YoY 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change Total Internet user penetration 22.5% 25.9% 15.1% 14.0% 12.3% -12.1% 28.3% 28.4% 0.2% 12.7% 13.0% 2.2% 33.3% 45.0% 35% invalid data invalid data 29.5% 26.7% -9.4% 41.4% 49.0% 18.3%
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Benchmarking
Extent of business internet use
KPI
Kenya YoY RSA YoY Nigeria YoY Rwanda YoY Ukraine YoY 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change
Philipines
YoY Egypt YoY Morocco YoY
Benchmarking
Government ICT Use and Efficiency
KPI
Kenya YoY RSA YoY Nigeria YoY Rwanda YoY Ukraine YoY Philipines YoY Egypt YoY Morocco YoY 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change
ICT Use and Government Efficiency - WEF Indicator 4.35 4.4 1.1% 4.07 3.9 -4.2% 3.8 3.8 0.0% no data 5.5
3.56 3.6 1% 3.6 3.7 2.8% 4.43 3.9 -12.0% 4.2 4.0 -4.8%
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Benchmarking
Government Online service Index
KPI Kenya YoY RSA YoY Nigeria YoY Rwanda YoY Ukraine YoY 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change 2010 2011 change Government Online Service Index - WEF Indicator 0.24 0.2 0.0% 0.31 0.3 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0% 0.17 0.2 0.0% 0.35 0.4 0% 0.39 0.4 0.0% 0.53 0.5 0.0% 0.24 0.2 0.0%
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Philipines YoY
Egypt YoY
Morocco YoY
Benchmarking
Internet Users vs Connections as a % of population
Internet Users vs Connections as a % of population
In more developed countries the total number of connections vis a vis the number of users are evenly spread In countries like Kenya, Nigeria and Morocco, there are lower numbers of connections but higher number of users indicating most connections are shared connections and largely comprise business connections (including publicly accessible connections like cyber cafes, education institutions).
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Kenya RSA Nigeria Rwanda Ukraine Philipines Egypt Morocco
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Benchmarking
Total Internet vs Household penetration
Total Internet vs Household penetration
Kenya has a higher internet penetration vis a vis South Africa but mainly bolstered by mobile internet connections though with a lower proportion of households connected owing to a declining fixed network and poor development of DSL based services. Kenya compares much better than both Nigeria and Rwanda on both counts Egypt has a much higher overall and household internet penetration with a huge gap of almost 25 percentage points at household level.
45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Kenya RSA Nigeria Rwanda Ukraine Philipines Egypt Morocco Proportion of households with internet access Total Internet user penetration
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Benchmarking
Computer Penetration
Kenya has slightly higher PC penetration rates than Nigeria and Rwanda but still very far behind South Africa and Morocco, mostly owing to lower disposable income than these countries.
Population figures for Nigeria (high) and Phillipnes (low) help skew penetration rates either way as do GDP per capita figures when thinking of disposable income and installed base of computers in households.
Computers per 100 inhabitants
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Kenya RSA Nigeria Rwanda Ukraine Philipines Egypt Morocco
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Benchmarking
Household Internet Access vs Household PC Access
Household Internet Access vs PC
In terms of PC Access at the household level, Kenya is only better than Rwanda. It should be noted that Nigeria as a manufacturer of PCs (Zinox brand) that are locally affordable, accounts for much higher PC penetration at household levels but negligible household internet penetration given infrastruicture issues (subamrine cables arrived way after they did in East Africa)
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Benchmarking
Business Internet Usage
Business Internet Usage
Morocco Egypt Philipines Ukraine Rwanda Nigeria RSA Kenya 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
In terms of business usage of the internet, Kenya is nearly on par with more developed countries like Egypt and Morocco and slightly ahead of Nigeria
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Benchmarking
Broadband Access Tariffs
Broadband Access Tariffs
Despite additional capacity, cost of broadband is still a factor for business vis a vis other countries. Nigeria has recently got a lot of international bandwidth but constrained somewhat by back bone, last mile access and electricity challenges. Landlocked Rwanda largely relies on bandwidth from operators in neighbouring countries.
$120.00
$100.00
$80.00
$60.00
$40.00
$20.00
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fhook@idc.com
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