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Stefan Thiesen - Climate Poker
The author, born in Germany in 1967, is astronomer and
geographer with various undergraduate and graduate degrees from
European and American universities, including the University of
the State of New York and the University of London. His
work focuses on future research in the widest sense.
For my parents, who always
supported every step on my
way - no matter how strange
it seemed to be
Stefan Thiesen Climate Poker A Journey to our Precious Planet ® MindQuest Scientia 3 .
1. Auflage, Selm, 1999
©MindQuest ® Verlag, Stefan Thiesen, 59379 Selm
Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Druck: Georg Lingenbrink GmbH, Hamburg,
Preface ....................................................................... 9
Introductory Remarks ........................................... 22
Part I ........................................................................ 25
Stability Parameters of Planetary Ecosystems
I.1: Introduction ........................................................ 26
I.2: Relevant Astronomical and Geophysical
Properties of Planets ............................................ 28
I.2.1: Laws of Planetary Motion ............................... 28
I.2.2: General Energy Balances of Planets ............... 29
I.3: Solar Evolution and Long Term Climate
Stability ................................................................ 36
I.3.1: Inner and Outer Boundaries of Habitable
Zones .................................................................... 38
I.3.2: Modeling Habitable Zones .............................. 41
I.3.2.1: Solving Enigmas .......................................... 45
Exkurs: Short History of a Simple Mistake .......... 48
I.188.8.131.52: Mass Change of the Sun ........................... 53
I.184.108.40.206: Internal Regulations of Planetary
Ecosystems .......................................................... 55
I 220.127.116.11: Mars - More Reasons for Optimism? ........ 60
Some general literature used for this part: ............ 62
Part II ...................................................................... 65
Search for Life in the Solar System
Review of a very ordinary Star System
II.1: Introduction ....................................................... 66
II.1.1: An Average Star System ................................ 67
II.2: Inner Solar System: The Search Begins ............ 68
II.2.1: VENUS .......................................................... 69
II.2.1.1: The Atmosphere of Venus ........................... 70
II.2.1.2: Is Life on Venus still possible? ................... 73
II.2.2: Is there Life on Earth? ................................... 75
II.2.3: Mars - another Planet of Life? ....................... 77
II.2.3.1: Robots Searching Life on Mars (summary).79
II.18.104.22.168: Experiments for Life ................................ 82
II.22.214.171.124: Results of the Viking Search for Life ...... 86
II.126.96.36.199: Future Life-Searching Missions .............. 88
II.2.3.2: Other Objectives ......................................... 92
General Literature used for part II: ...................... 93
Part III ..................................................................... 95
Climate Policy and Politics - a regional Example;
Sane David looses in the real World of Power and
III.1: Introduction .................................................... 96
III.2: The Example of Climate Change: A general
Overview of Research and Policies................ 100
III.2.1: Global Results and Activities ..................... 100
III.2.2: General Results and Activities in
Germany ............................................................ 103
III.3: Methodology ................................................. 107
III.3.1: Research Methods and Sources .................. 107
III.3.2: Münster - Germany’s „Climate Capital“ 1997..109
III.3.3: Climate and Energy Research in
Münster ............................................................. 110
III.3.4: Climate and Energy Policies in Münster .......... 114
III.3.5: Effectivity Indicators for Local Climate and
Energy Policies ................................................. 117
IIII.4: Analysis ............................................................... 123
IIII.4.1: CO2 Reduction Scenarios for different
Sectors - Two Case Studies ............................... 123
................4............1...............................1...................... 139 III. Achievements and Assessments in Münster ...........1.......III..................................1: The Real Situation .. 130 III....................................... 158 FOOTNOTES: . 142 Appendix ...............4..1: Comparison of Effectivity Indicators to Reduction Goals...........................4.1....1: Reduction Possibilities and Realities in the Sector „Housing and HouseholdHeating“ .....................................2: Opinions as Qualitative „Indicators“ ................................2: CO2 Reduction Strategies in Münster’s Traffic Sector ..........................2: Does Germany’s „Best Effort“ meet expectations and objective requirements? ....... 177 7 ......5: Conclusion .....5........... 123 III.....................................2:Reduction Possibilities and Realities in the Traffic Sector ...... 139 III..............2...........4............................. 136 III....3: Outlook to the Future ..... 131 III..........5......2...................4... 141 III.................. 147 Sources and Bibliography: ........... 130 III.........5.............
Any price tags there? I explain to freezing tourists the crashing of comet Levy-Shoemaker into the atmosphere of the father of all planets: Jupiter. like it is their second . Being romantic is something that in our days is ridiculed by most sides of Western culture. Every piece of knowledge must be filable and filed. When I went snorkeling in Hilo Bay. This is not romantic. So are the tourists. pieces of knowledge only have a value if a clearly readable price tag is attached to them. my eyes are gazing upon the palm trees at the shore and wandering over the majestic sight of distant Mauna Kea. as if they extended their greetings to the playing kids. Not far away. It is all and through materialistic. Our time has become that of „objectivity“.nature. jumping and twisting and turning. so that it can be retrieved. I am floating atop gentle waves. a school of spinner dolphins is passing by.Preface There is a confession I have to make: I am a hopeless romantic. surfing. If I duck my head under water I can hear the distant songs of 9 . I felt like in heaven while an old sea turtle was hovering in the swaying waves next to me. Everything must be evaluated and assessed in an objective and reproducible fashion. yet another invention of Euromerican culture. I stand there in awe and wonder. And I am absolutely and pricelessly fascinated. gazing over the fantastic volcano landscape. and for the industry that drives our world. But when I stand on top of Mauna Kea in Hawai’i. which is somewhat funny. since romanticism originated just there. What might it think? Above the water I see playing high school kids of all colors.or rather their first .
when they remember it in later times. we usually treat it with respect. and we care for it. however personalizing it is deeply human. since hardly anything is as difficult as teaching a young human what the value of money is. A young human’s instinct rightfully tells her or him that money has no value. Corals are bleaching around the world. Experience however tells me that we humans have a tendency to personalize things that we love. the one thing in the universe. of dogs and foxes. so that they have something they can be fond of when they talk about it. I thought of deer and horses. her pets. that feeds us and keeps us alive. But I can also see corals. what dying trees are on land. her dolls. I gave names to the crows nesting nearby. and coral bleaching is for the seas. of all the country creatures and even the trees as individual sentient beings. they even personalize something as abstract as a military mission. I called the planet sick. but even they give names to their battle ships and airplanes. Money on the other hand is something very inhumane. When I was little and growing up in the country. Although it might therefore be unscientific to personalize the planet Earth. which show first signs of bleaching. and as soon as we think of something as a person. I assume that military people are not suspected to be overly romantic. Every little child in every culture around this globe gives names to her toys.humpback whales. which obviously it is not. Money is not a part 10 . Dying trees and dying corals show me one thing very clearly: This planet is severely sick. that brought each and all of us into existence. By some this would be ridiculed as a romantic view. Personalizing the world around us seems to be something that is deeply rooted in human nature. as if the planet would be a person.
She was told that he did this in order to save some precious money.of nature. There is another reason why conservative (what a word here!) business people and politicians and also some of my colleagues often ridicule me as being too romantic.in order to save some of this rather ominous money. And yes. The girl had not yet understood the current world’s paradigm which goes „Anything goes as long as it brings money“. „But“. I do have the tendency to say that some of the old folks. the 11 . „these people were primitive. illiterate savages. The girl didn’t even know what money really is . so we have no money-related natural intuition. With swollen eyes and rolling tears she screamed at him: „Are you crazy? You cannot kill all those animals and trees and poison children only because something else costs more!“ The girl was ten. who happened to be the CEO of some big chemical company. How many children under. Money cannot be personalized. Silly little girl. and they also shaped their environments for their purposes“. my opponents argue. say. . It turned out that . say the ancient Hawaiians. like many other creatures on the face of the Earth. and also one that was not necessarily unhappier than ours. it has played no role in our natural evolution. and only mentally disturbed people could actually love money for itself. ten years grasp the concept of money? And yet our main activity in these days is to turn the entire living world into dead money. have led a more sustainable life.or a paradigm for that matter. Not long ago I heard a story about a little girl who lost all her faith in her father.her beloved father’s company had dumped highly toxic chemical waste in a natural wetland preservation area.
starving. Stone statues one cannot eat. the inhabitants of one island began at one time to focus their entire effort on producing large statues of stone. concrete and whoknowswhatelse? Nope.did shape their environment to a certain extent. Stone statues do not float. They didn’t.Hawaiians . since they provided the food and building material for houses and ships. where people did something utterly stupid. until no more trees were there. But did they in any way alter the planets atmospheric conditions? They did not do that. Stone statues one cannot use to make a nice and cozy fire. Is there a fundamental difference between the Easter islanders’ obsession with dead stone statues and our 12 . The people there lived through a time of darkness and suffering. For as yet unknown reasons. which was necessary on this rather cold and windy island. hungry and freezing for many decades. Did they add thousands of weird artificial chemicals with completely unknown long-term side effects to the entire global food-and-matter chain? No. in order to transport those stone statues on the rolling stems. the Easter island. if not for centuries. There is one example from old Polynesia though. yes. There is a lesson here. All trees were chopped off. The trees however were somewhat important. trapped on their tiny little horror island. but the population of the Easter island was only a few thousand. A larger one. The Earth herself is nothing but an island as well. that of the Earth is six billion and rising. Did they deforest entire continents? Change the ground water level of large parts of the Earth’s surface? Cover much of the Earth with asphalt. I am speaking of course about the Moai statues on Rapa Nui. ever rising.to stay with the example . Everything else was neglected.
The first officially logged contact between „savage“ Hawaiian people and Europeans was the landing of Captain Cook’s expedition in 1778. How many senseless wars did Europeans start afterwards? What about the American genocide and slavery? And I live in Germany where over six million innocent. and it also marked the final end of a period that could be called a period of peaceful exploration. we were still savages sacrificing humans! „ I was told. by a friend of mine who is a Hawaiian economist.craving for dead money? Both destroy everything that has a natural value and turn it into something artificial that has none. I am also told by my opponents that the old people had no medicinal care. the last woman was officially convicted of sorcery and brutally killed in Switzerland in 1782. Modern city people in fact practically know nothing about nature anymore and have no natural intuition whatsoever. In many cases it was well developed and modern medicine only now begins to understand and appreciate the effectivity of the various ancient medicinal schools. Hawaii was about the last spot on Earth to be infested by European discoverers. „By the time the Europeans came. back in Europe. But be that as it may . White propaganda seems to have fantastic powers. Meanwhile. It is difficult to respect something that one knows nothing about. Not so. of all people. Generally the old cultures respected nature and knew it well since they lived with it every day. peaceful human beings were slaughtered for nothing else but having the wrong 13 .the Easter island was an exception from the rule.
Go to school and learn! Learn reading! Learn thinking! Learn opening your ears and eyes and hear and see! We can start right at this spot with reading and hearing and seeing. and therefore we write the history books. We white Euromaricans always win. who laid the foundations for the electronic revolution and developed miracle cures for many of the most terrible diseases warn us. we will finally write all of mankind out of history. including most living nobel laureates tell you the same thing? If they subscribe to the same view? And they do. Nobody should later be allowed to say „I didn’t know“. when we turn on our microwave ovens. If I say „The world is in jeopardy“. of which yours truly is a member: 14 . all of which are rather difficult arts. and I am afraid that if we continue on our current path. That was a time near the middle of the twentieth century. when it comes to judging itself. published in 1992 by the Union of Concerned Scientists. We trust their judgment and in fact put the life of our children in their hands when we use penicillin. when we enter an airplane. What does all that have to do with environmental issues? Nothing. I am one of them.religion. The same people who have built trustworthy airplanes. I will happily kick the butt of anyone who says „we need facts“. who have brought humans to the moon. You should reconsider your faith in science if you don’t trust the senior scientists’ warning to mankind. but it shows the immense arrogance of the white race. one could rightfully remark „Who the heck are you young greenhorn to say such big words?“ But what if all of the world’s senior scientists. Nobody give me that crap about the moral superiority of the white culture.
and crops. Stratospheric ozone depletion threatens us with enhanced ultraviolet radiation at the earth’s surface. The Environment The environment is suffering critical stress: The Atmosphere. and acid precipitation. The Warning was written and spearheaded by UCS Chair Henry Kendall († 1999). Air pollution near ground level. containing 40 percent of the 15 . Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. including the majority of Nobel laureates in the sciences. and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Water Resources.Some 1.700 of the world’s leading scientists. If not checked. many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms. forests. issued this appeal in November 1992. Heedless exploitation of depletable ground water supplies endangers food production and other essential human systems. Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about. are already causing widespread injury to humans. Heavy demands on the world’s surface waters have resulted in serious shortages in some 80 countries. which can be damaging or lethal to many life forms.
Much of this 16 . lakes. is a widespread by-product of current practices in agriculture and animal husbandry. Loss of soil productivity. some critical forest types will be gone in a few years. Soil. are being destroyed rapidly. municipal. and the contribution that genetic diversity of life forms gives to the robustness of the world’s biological systems and to the astonishing beauty of the earth itself. Pollution of rivers. Living Species. particularly in the coastal regions which produce most of the world’s food fish.world’s population. is especially serious. which by 2100 may reach one-third of all species now living. and most of the tropical rain forest will be gone before the end of the next century. agricultural. We are losing the potential they hold for providing medicinal and other benefits. as well as tropical and temperate dry forests. The irreversible loss of species. which is causing extensive land abandonment. Some fisheries have already shown signs of collapse. Since 1945. Rivers carrying heavy burdens of eroded soil into the seas also carry industrial. At present rates. and livestock waste — some of it toxic. and ground water further limits the supply. Tropical rain forests. 11 percent of the earth’s vegetated surface has been degraded — an area larger than India and China combined — and per capita food production in many parts of the world is decreasing. Oceans. Forests. Destructive pressure on the oceans is severe. The total marine catch is now at or above the estimated maximum sustainable yield. With them will go large numbers of plant and animal species.
in both developed and underdeveloped nations. Our massive tampering with the world’s interdependent web of life — coupled with the environmental damage inflicted by deforestation. Its ability to provide food and energy is finite. Population The earth is finite. and climate change — could trigger widespread adverse effects. If we are to 17 . Increasing levels of gases in the atmosphere from human activities.damage is irreversible on a scale of centuries. And we are fast approaching many of the earth’s limits. including carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning and from deforestation. Uncertainty over the extent of these effects cannot excuse complacency or delay in facing the threats. including unpredictable collapses of critical biological systems whose interactions and dynamics we only imperfectly understand. may alter climate on a global scale. species loss. Its ability to absorb wastes and destructive effluent is finite. Its ability to provide for growing numbers of people is finite. or permanent. Predictions of global warming are still uncertain — with projected effects ranging from tolerable to very severe — but the potential risks are very great. Current economic practices which damage the environment. Other processes appear to pose additional threats. Pressures resulting from unrestrained population growth put demands on the natural world that can overwhelm any efforts to achieve a sustainable future. cannot be continued without the risk that vital global systems will be damaged beyond repair.
No more than one or a few decades remain before the chance to avert the threats we now confront will be lost and the prospects for humanity immeasurably diminished. A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it is required. inexhaustible energy sources to cut greenhouse gas emissions and the pollution of our air 18 . for example. one person in five lives in absolute poverty without enough to eat. Warning We the undersigned. if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated. and one in ten suffers serious malnutrition. move away from fossil fuels to more benign.halt the destruction of our environment. hereby warn all humanity of what lies ahead. a near tripling of today’s 5. What We Must Do Five inextricably linked areas must be addressed simultaneously: We must bring environmentally damaging activities under control to restore and protect the integrity of the earth’s systems we depend on. A World Bank estimate indicates that world population will not stabilize at less than 12.4 billion. senior members of the world’s scientific community. We must. even at this moment.4 billion. while the United Nations concludes that the eventual total could reach 14 billion. we must accept limits to that growth. But.
water. They must greatly reduce their overconsumption. We must reduce and eventually eliminate poverty. and the adoption of effective. We must ensure sexual equality. injury to and loss of agricultural land. if we are to reduce pressures on resources and the global environment. Developed Nations Must Act Now The developed nations are the largest polluters in the world today. We must halt deforestation. and guarantee women control over their own reproductive decisions. including expansion of conservation and recycling. The developed nations have the obligation to provide aid and support to developing nations.and water. We must stabilize population. voluntary family planning. because only the developed nations have the financial resources and the technical skills for these tasks. 19 . We must give high priority to efficient use of energy. and other materials. This will be possible only if all nations recognize that it requires improved social and economic conditions. We must manage resources crucial to human welfare more effectively. Priority must be given to the development of energy sources matched to Third World needs — smallscale and relatively easy to implement. and the loss of terrestrial and marine plant and animal species.
Resources now devoted to the preparation and conduct of war — amounting to over $1 trillion annually — will be badly needed in the new tasks and should be diverted to the new challenges. and that attempts to blunt it will be overwhelmed if their populations go unchecked. environmental and economic instabilities will cause mass migrations with incalculable consequences for developed and undeveloped nations alike. 20 . and environmental collapse. but enlightened self-interest: whether industrialized or not. Developing nations must realize that environmental damage is one of the gravest threats they face. This ethic must motivate a great movement. No nation can escape from injury when global biological systems are damaged. poverty.Acting on this recognition is not altruism. We must no longer allow it to be ravaged. We must recognize its fragility. No nation can escape from conflicts over increasingly scarce resources. In addition. We must recognize the earth’s limited capacity to provide for us. A new ethic is required — a new attitude towards discharging our responsibility for caring for ourselves and for the earth. leading to social. and unrest. Success in this global endeavor will require a great reduction in violence and war. we all have but one lifeboat. convincing reluctant leaders and reluctant governments and reluctant peoples themselves to effect the needed changes. economic. The greatest peril is to become trapped in spirals of environmental decline.
ucs@ucsusa. We require the help of the world’s business and industrial leaders. social. We need the help of many. We require the help of the world community of scientists — natural. We require the help of the world’s peoples. economic. MA 02238-9105 617-547-5552. Union of Concerned Scientists 2 Brattle Square. Cambridge.The scientists issuing this warning hope that our message will reach and affect people everywhere.org 21 . and political. We require the help of the world’s religious leaders. We call on all to join us in this task.
analyzing the properties of other planets and assessing the probability of planetary ecospheres like ours occurring elsewhere in the vastness of space resulted in my deep appreciation of the wonder of life on Earth. I hope that the reader will begin to appreciate the value of natural system. Looking at Earth from the outside. This life is endangered in its entirety since our current lifestyle is that of lunatic gamblers who may win money but who are more likely to lose their home. At first sight my fields of study don’t seem closely connected. Here on Earth however the surface of its thin crust is teeming with life in fantastic variations. and with quite some effort my colleagues are searching for the faintest traces of microbial life on Mars or possibly one of the Jupiter moons. „Climate Poker“ traces back my winding pathway leading from the search for life in the universe to an analysis of a concrete example of climate policy right here on good old Earth. asking with tears in their eyes: „WHY DID YOU DO THAT?“ What would we answer? Would we lie and say „We didn’t know?“ Or would we tell the truth and admit that money was more important for us than the faith of the world and of our grandchildren? 22 . We must stop gambling. All other planets are just dead rocks. but in fact it was the study of stars and planets that brought me back to the Earth. ranging from astronomy to climate policy. of life. if we don’t want to face the questions of our grandchildren.Introductory Remarks The approach to this book surely is unusual and rather personal. and the connections it has to his everyday decisions.
And I sure love this living planet. and what harm it can possibly cause.I am Stefan Thiesen. with all the power of my heart. Anyone who wishes to do so can blame that on me. and I have a confession to make: I am a hopeless romantic. astronomer and geographer. 23 . but please also explain what is wrong with it. our home we call Earth.
Part I Stability Parameters of Planetary Ecosystems The Journey begins 25 .
I had grand ideas about the possible outcomes.Part I Stability Parameters of Planetary Ecosystems I. and I am afraid he was right with his assessment. Dyson: ”We know absurdly little even about 26 ... As it turned out it is virtually impossible to undertake such a work because some big questions as well as a myriad of detail problems are still completely unresolved1 .. which is assumed to be a necessary prerequisite for the evolution of intelligence. I am very grateful to Prof. One of my motivations was to clarify as far as possible the question of the probability of habitable and inhabited planets to occur throughout the universe and estimate the long term habitability of planets. Freeman Dyson from the Institute for Advanced Studies in Princeton. I had presented my proposal to him and he wrote back that he was “.. who brought my feet back onto the ground just in time to change my proposal.” which sounded to him like big words without substance.dubious about ‘Stabilitätsfaktoren Planetarischer Ökosysteme’ as a research topic.1: Introduction When in 1994 I originally proposed “Stability Parameters of Planetary Ecosystems” as a dissertation topic.
. For enhanced clarity it is presented here in an abbreviated and simplified version. 27 .”. The new “Project in Lieu of Dissertation” provided a highly flexible and individualized option that allowed me to combine graduate courses. let alone the stability of the planet as a whole”. which has become Part I of this book. Again he most probably was right. Following Prof.the ecological stability of local parts of our own planet. He wrote that in his opinion ecology is a science that needs far more observation and experiment. which in my case involves popular science and science fiction writing. professional work and six independent projects to form an external doctorate program. This part of my dissertation in Astronomy. The purpose of this work is to present interdisciplinary background knowledge in earth sciences and astronomy and to integrate the work undertaken in professional development.. and after giving it some thought I changed my proposal. and that there has been much too much computer modeling and not enough observation. is what remains from the original proposal2 . He added: “I am afraid that your proposal will lead to a pretentious theoretical analysis based on insufficient factual data. Dyson’s advice I did not try to answer all questions of the universe but rather give an overview of various aspects of bioastronomy.
1: Laws of Planetary Motion Johannes Kepler (1571 . and that the Sun is situated in one focus. physical properties of planets.1601). Planets are now considered to be a normal byproduct of stellar formation. The first law states that the planetary orbits around the Sun are ellipses. Therefore we arrive at the formula: a(1 − e 2 ) r= 1 + e cos θ (eq. e is the eccentricity and q is the angle defining the position of the planet on the ellipse seen from the Sun’s point of view.I. habitable zones and how we can deal with them in a basic quantitative fashion. The smallest value of r. I.2: Relevant Astronomical and Geophysical Properties of Planets Before I elaborate on the big word “Planetary Ecosystems”. I.1) Here r is the distance from the Sun. the 28 .1630) discovered the laws of planetary motion based upon the detailed long term observations of the Danish astronomer Tycho Brahe (1546 . I will give a short overview of some general aspects of planetary sciences. a hypothesis that has been confirmed in recent years by the detection of exoplanets in various near by star systems. a is the semi major axis.2.
2.perihelion. I. we arrive at rmax/a = 1+e (eq. I.2: General Energy Balances of Planets The overall energy balance of a planet is the most crucial aspect for climate modeling. The third law of Kepler can be written a3 = Kp2 with a in astronomical units (AU) and the p (period) is given in years. the maximum value of r. Here both are expressed in units of the combined mass of Sun and Earth thus in the case of the Earth (M + m) equals one. Sources for internal heating can be volcanism 29 . I.2) so for the aphelion.3). corresponds to cos q = 1 and is given as rmin/a = (1-e2)/(1+e) = 1-e (eq. This simple format is particularly useful for a crucial numerical calculation that I will suggest later in this work. For my purpose I later will have to apply Newton’s more exact formulation which also accounts for the masses of Sun and planet. K is a constant equaling 1 AU3/yr2. I. There are two main sources of energy: internal heating and external stellar radiation. In this case we arrive at a3 = K(M + m)p2 (eq. M is the mass of the Sun and m the mass of the planet.4) for Kepler’s third law.
I. Since energy input from the star S(r) and inner energy streams Q are balanced.5) Where S (for the Earth) has a value of S = 1.(geothermal heating caused by radioactive processes or tidal stresses) or . a global effective temperature is defined following the StefanBoltzmann-law of radiation. The modified solar constant for orbital “radius” r is easily calculated as: r −2 S(r) = S 1AU (eq. External energy input only depends on the star’s luminosity and the planets distance from the star.chemical activities. stellar activity and orbital variations. we get: 4 π R 2 (1 − A)S(r) + 4 π R 2 Q = 4 π R 2 σ T eff (eq. I.6) 30 .39 for Earth).less important .37 kWm-2. A planet of radius R absorbs p R2(1-A)S(r) of the arriving radiation with A being its average albedo (A=0. Since planets are not ideal black bodies. although it certainly is not a constant since it changes as a result of stellar evolution. The energy that arrives at the position of the Earth (or a given planet) outside the atmosphere is called the Solar Constant.
2) ca.5): 4 σ T eff4 (1 − A)S(r) Jupiter Saturn 1.5 Neptune 2.4*10-5S or 1/228 S. For the giant planets this situation is reversed and the amount of inner energy released by the planets by far “outperforms” the Sun’s input.06 W/m-2. The origin of this energy has not yet been completely determined in all cases.Generally for the terrestrial planets the amount of inner energy Q is minute compared to the solar input. We can easily calculate the ratios of planetary energy output to solar energy input following (eq. but the majority of the radiation probably is released gravitational energy plus energy that was left over from the time of the planets’ formation.4 (+.9 (+-0.1) These values have been obtained by infrared measurement. I. or a mere 4. Whether or not Uranus has its own inner energy source is unresolved: Earth based infrared observations found no evidence whereas measurements of the atmospheric temperature distribution undertaken by Voyager 2 seem to have found hints pointing towards the opposite3 . 3. The above situation looks somewhat different if we place the giant planets onto a hypothetical orbit of 1 AU where they would be subject to the same energy input as Earth is now. In the case of the Earth for example the inner thermal heating (mainly caused by radioactive processes) amounts to only Q=0. The Solar constant basically is nothing else than stellar luminosity combined with the 31 .
5) we arrive at a ratio of S(Earth) to S(Jup) of: S( Earth) = S( Jup) = 1. I.1/r 2 law. 0. for which the same applies. 496 ⋅10 8 km −2 1 ≈ 27 5. There are several zones in a given star system that can be distinguished using the radiation flux only: a “heat zone”. Jupiter would only yield an energy output of approx. In the case of the solar system. 79 ⋅10 8 km 1. 37kwm −2 1. though it still remains small. Mercury and Venus are 32 . 37kwm −2 7. so it’s value behaves anti-proportional. Instead of releasing almost two times the energy the planet receives from the Sun in his real orbit. Again following (eq. decreasing with the square of the distance. 21−2 This result shows that after a normalization of the energy input to the solar constant the internal heat production of the terrestrial planets relative to the value of the giant planets rises by more than one order of magnitude. Naturally the radiation balance is a core factor for the long-term stability of a planetary ecosystem. and a “habitable zone” 4 where moderate temperatures allow the occurrence of chemical and biochemical processes that finally may lead to the evolution of earth-type life. in which no known lifeform could exist.07 times that of the input in a 1 AU distance to the Sun. a “frost zone”.
33 . Habitable zones may not be dependent on stellar radiation fluxes only. not to scale In the solar system the situation is simpler than in the example I have shown here.1: A hypothetical star system. the typical “mainstream” habitable zone should look similar to this: Planet Star Runaway „freezer“ Habitable Zone Runaway „greenhouse“ Illustration I. However.situated in the “heat zone” and Mars apparently orbits just outside the habitable zone near the inner border of the “frost zone”. Earth appears to have been inside of the habitable zone since it’s formation. The necessary energy source would be provided by geothermal heating as a result of tidal stresses. Especially the inner planets have near circular orbits and seasons are almost completely dominated by the planets’ obliquity. It is possible that on moons in orbits around giant planets conditions could arise that lead to the formation of a planetary ecosphere very different from that found on Earth. and not by changes of the solar radiation flux due to distance variations.
The planet in this illustration has a highly eccentric orbit. Since under frost conditions chemistry occurs slow but stable. these oceans might have enough heat capacity to stabilize the climate during the heat seasons. for example through a highly increased albedo due to heavy cloud formation. it is entirely conceivable that life may adjust to such variable conditions if it finds a way to survive the short heat phases. It would have to tolerate seasons of extreme heat as well as cold seasons during which the atmosphere would nearly freeze out. especially if we consider additional internal heating. In our case the situation is more straightforward and schematically looks as follows (next page): 34 . and at the same time they could be a retreat for lifeforms during the cold seasons. This is only one example for an infinite number of possible scenarios. which during its year brings it into all zones of his star. changing within one year from Venus-like over Earth-like to Mars-like radiation conditions. If the planet has large oceans. Although there have been a variety of model calculations it remains unclear whether some kind of stable ecosphere could exist on such a planet. although it would spend the majority of its time in either the frost or the habitable zone. and it merely serves as a demonstration since I mainly want to talk about the only positive example we know: the solar system.
and also that even the Earth might eventually drop out. with Earth being the only lucky planet. This may not always have been so in the past partly due to orbital variations but mainly because of the evolution of the Sun which now has a luminosity approx. Also the inner and outer boundaries of the habitable zone are not known for sure yet since we only begin to understand the complex feedback and regulating mechanisms in planetary atmospheres. 35 . eccentricity of orbits are exaggerated As shown above the situation for every planet appears to be clearly defined: either it is inside or outside the habitable zone.2: inner solar system. 30% higher than in it’s early stages.Mercury Venus Earth Mars Habitable Zone Illustration I. It may well turn out that Venus once was and Mars still is inside of the habitable zone.
• Long term effects of aberrated solar wind and emradiation on orbital mechanics are approx. Since I am only interested in estimating the magnitude of long term changes of mean surface temperatures of planets as a result of possible orbital and stellar luminosity variations. • Remaining relevant solar mass loss can be calculated simply following E=mc2 based upon averaged stellar luminosity.5*109 years (or rather at that time it had a luminosity of 0.I. it should be sufficient to rely on a simple 1D climate model.71 of the Sun’s current luminosity that increased in a linear fashion.. cancelled out by solar mass loss due to solar wind etc. such as the one lined out in the following illustration (next page): 36 .3: Solar Evolution and Long-Term Climate Stability For my purposes I will assume the following facts as given: • The Sun’s current average luminosity has a value of 29% above the value of t-4.
1996) 37 .3 (from Martyn J.Illustration I. Fogg.
1: Inner and Outer Boundaries of Habitable Zones There are several definitions for habitable zones around main sequence stars. The inner boundary is characterized by the loss of H2O through a runaway greenhouse effect.I. of which one of the most common is the “liquid water definition”5 . H2O and N2. Three different sets of flux limits have been identified for each of the two boundaries with the inner and outer limit mainly depending on stellar luminosity and not stellar temperature. this means that a given planet will stay within the habitable zone of its motherstar for a limited time only.7). The mass is not exactly defined (see Mars/Earth) but apparently it should be sufficient to maintain a minimum geologic activity which is needed for a carbon and silicate cycle that is necessary for a stable internal regulation of the climatic balance6 (see also illustration I.3. Therefore a habitable zone is defined as the radial shell around a star within which an earth-like Planet could support surface liquid water. The exact conditions under which either runaway greenhouse or runaway freezer occur appear to be highly sensitive to the effects of H2O and CO2 clouds on the radiation budget of a planet. A planet is defined as one “similar” in mass and composition to Earth with basically identical surface inventories of CO2. According to accepted theory. the outer boundary by freezing of all surface water. The habitable zone is not stable since stars show a significant luminosity evolution during their main-sequence lifetime. Depending on the mass and lifetime of the motherstar. this effect would then greatly decrease the probability of higher lifeforms 38 .
1 and 0. a habitable zone around the star generally would exist for a shorter time and the Continuously Habitable Zone (furthermore called CHZ) would evolve (move outwards) too fast. Typical ranges of habitable zones around low mass stars (such as M stars) would be between 0. Following these arguments.5 solar masses comprise three quarters of the stellar population of the Milky Way one would at first sight assume that the narrow range of the habitable zone makes it relatively improbable for planets to have formed in it thus in the last consequence rendering the probability of higher lifeforms evolving in low mass star systems negligible.3 AU7 . a time span requiring stable conditions that . As a result of its close orbit inside the habitable zone around a typical M star.03 and 0. The problem is that the zone is very narrow and also very close to the star. Stars with lower mass than the Sun show a much slower evolution and an extremely stable luminosity.according to many models . Although it was shown that tidally locked planets around M stars can support an Earth-type atmosphere8 and although M stars with masses between 0.to occur in space since for these we assume a minimum evolution time of 109 years. to allow higher life forms and a long term stable ecosystem to form on one of the planets. this means the habitable zone of such a star also changes very slowly. since we know that stars with an initial mass higher than that of the Sun have a faster evolution. the orbiting planet would most probably be tidally locked.would not be met by the vast majority of stars. Without attempting “pretentious calculations” I present some qualitative arguments against these trains of thoughts: 39 .
detailed calculations of the effect of the stellar mass loss on the outward drift of the planets’ orbits have to be carried out in order to assess the true evolution of the CHZs. the probability of life occurring in the Galaxy is minute. but in recent years there have been many improvements in climate and stellar modeling. 40 . these qualitative arguments already point towards the possibility that nature tends to design star systems in a fashion that allows life to thrive on at least one planet in each system. In my opinion.. The mass loss should have a larger effect in stars with higher luminosity and possibly higher strained activity. particularly regarding our understanding of the carbonate-silicate cycles. (1978). • The CHZ should not be defined by the evolution of the stars’ luminosity alone. • During the formation process of low mass stars their planetary system is likely to also form closer to the star with planetary orbits in close spacing. it would have several candidates that might be in it’s habitable zone).• Stars with high initial mass and higher (compared to the Sun) initial luminosity also have a significantly wider initial habitable zone which may allow for more than one planet to orbit within it. thus simple celestial mechanics would place planets in or near the habitable zone of their mother star (if Jupiter were a star. According to Hart et al. Newer models arrive at more optimistic results.
Again.3. for the sake of simplicity. a real planet can most probably maintain liquid water at significantly higher fluxes through internal regulation. A calculated and an empirical limit for the solar flux at the inner border of the HZ (normalized to the current solar constant) are 1. Reliable values for the flux at the outer limits are more difficult to obtain since climate models for cold planets would have to be able to include CO2 clouds and condensations.2: Modeling Habitable Zones The inner (r1) and outer (r2) boundaries of the solar system habitable zone can be estimated as: r1 = L(t ) and r2 = S1(T ) L(t ) S2(T ) (eq. The rationale is that an assessment of geological surface features on Venus allows the conclusion that there has been no liquid water flow during this time span. The higher value constitutes an empirically obtained upper limit (the flux at the current location of Venus) 109 years ago9 . The lower and most conservative value obtained to date is based upon a simple 1D radiative convective climate model.7) In above equations L(t) is the stellar luminosity as a function of time as given by the stellar evolution model (which for sake of simplicity I will assume to be linear in first approximation) and S1 (S2) are the critical stellar fluxes.I. I will assume an inner flux limit of 1. I. a set of problems that is not yet 41 .5 S for habitable zones with Earth type planets.1 and 1.76.
approximately following the empirical equations: 42 .8) Where S0 is the solar constant (or rather solar flux outside the atmosphere at a given time). but using the conservative value will hopefully spare me of accusations of being all too optimistic.32 S). Many attempts have been undertaken to assess the long term stability of climate systems. I. I. where CO2 first condenses and increases the planetary albedo so that the planetary greenhouse effect is being decreased until it collapses.completely solved. As a result the temperature falls which then leads to the runaway freezer.53 S10 . and A is the planetary albedo. I will stay on the conservative side for the outer value which is then defined as the “first condensation point”. Based upon the empirically derived results by Budyoko (1969). Therefore. The incoming stellar energy Ein is given by Ein=1/4S0(1-A(T)) (eq. Sellers (1969) and Nielsen (1981) I will present a simple globally averaged model11 of the type that was used to derive eq. The value I will use in due course is 0.7. ice and cloud covers. I will consider it to be a function of the surface temperature only. mainly by using one dimensional global energy balance models (EBMs) that include some empirically obtained parameters. A is mostly influenced by snow. I know this value to be incorrect since it is known that Mars apparently possessed liquid water at a lower radiation flux (possibly as low as 0.
If the solar constant is reduced by more than 12% in the equation. I.A=Amax = 0. 43 . one for a partly ice covered and one for an ice free Earth. A plot of Ein-Eout as a function of surface temperature T. only one state of equilibrium remains.25 for T>=T2=283K. For the radiation going out to space we can use: Eout=sT4 [1/2tanh 19*10-16T6] (eq. Two of the equilibrium states are known to be stable with relatively wide tolerance to changes in energy input.10) The term in brackets is a very rough estimation of the influence of H2O-vapor. shows that there are three equilibrium states: one for a completely ice-covered Earth.85 for T<T1=216K A(T ) = Amax − Amax − Amin (T − T1 ) T 2 − T1 (eq. while one is unstable and even disappears.and CO2 greenhouse effects as well as cloud covers on the terrestrial radiation.9) for T1<T<T2 We arrive at A(T)=0. A detailed calculation that needs to be carried out would have to include: • Influence of solar mass loss on planetary orbit. • Influence of stellar evolution on luminosity. I.
• Influence of changing solar constant due to changing orbit. • Planet’s ability to stabilize external influences. If these calculations were carried out in detail it would require a fully equipped institute including staff and sufficient funding.• Influence of luminosity on solar constant at place of planet. Similar pathways are being followed for example at NASA Ames Research Center (McKay et al) and at the University of Hawai’i (Owen et al) as well as other major international space research centers around the world. 44 . A primary goal must be to obtain reliable empirical data about stellar evolution and the climate histories of the planets.
75 of the current luminosity.I. I. Using eq.1: Solving Enigmas There are several enigmas that need to be solved in order to develop a more detailed understanding of solar system evolution and climate development on terrestrial planets in or near habitable zones: The Deuterium enrichment of Venus’ atmosphere is a strong indication for ancient water abundance.5 S for the inner border. If the Sun had an initial luminosity of 70% of the current luminosity. In order to be a candidate for Earth-like conditions. have used the stellar flux of 109 years ago at the current Venus orbit as the upper limit for the inner border of the habitable zone). Venus may have been within the Sun’s initial habitable zone. Venus has to be given some time to cool down after its formation. 75 ≈ 0.3. 71AU 1. The question I want to have answered is whether Venus (still assumed it had the same orbit as to date) was inside the IHZ assuming the more conservative value of 1. 5 45 . following a “rule of thumb” stellar evolution. the IHZ (as mentioned above Kasting et. al.2.7 we arrive at: r1 ≈ 0. so we also have to assume a higher luminosity for the Sun than the initial luminosity. This observation is consistent with the standard evolutionary model of the Sun. These estimates are highly unsure but I will give a luminosity of 0.
the external ones by its “environment”.The above estimate is relatively conservative and the result is that the current Venus orbit with a semi major axis of 0.72 AU was just beyond the inner border of r1 = 0. the internal factors being determined by the planet. mainly dominated by the star but also by early impacts (volatile 46 .12 AU 0. which leaves us with another enigma: the apparent abundance of liquid water on early Mars.41 AU. While searching for a possible solution for these problems I followed several pathways.52 AU semi major axis would have been far outside the habitable zone of this simplified model. 53 Therefore even with this conservative assessment. For the outer border at that time we arrive at: r2 ≈ 0. ice ages. an observation that is not compatible with current models of stellar and planetary evolution. warm periods) have far larger amplitudes than the long term variations that should be expected to occur due to a 30% increase of the Sun’s luminosity and the dramatic change of the atmospheric composition. the two sister planets Venus and Earth were comfortably placed inside the solar habitable zone which only spanned a mere 0.g. Mars with its current 1. The third unsolved riddle is that of the long term stability of the Earth’s surface temperature. Obviously there are internal and external factors that determine a climate system. interglacials. 75 ≈ 1.71 AU which should have enabled the planet to maintain water in all three phases. It seems that short term temperature variations (e.
The basic idea is that while the stellar luminosity increases the planets are being “pushed” outwards at the same time by their mother star so that 47 . • Stellar wind “pushing” on the planet thus affecting it’s orbit. atmospheric disruption etc.” There are several ways in which a star might influence the orbits of planets: • Stellar mass loss resulting in widening orbits. The resulting general hypothesis was: “The evolution of the star influences the orbits of its planets. the idea arose that there may be another aspect in addition to the luminosity evolution. • Stellar radiation (light) pushing on the planet like on a solar sail.5*109 years.input.). • Stellar magnetic field “dragging” or “braking” the planet. these are all second or third order aspects but since we talk about large time scales in the order of 4. • Stellar neutrinos exchanging momentum with planet matter. Except in the case of the stellar mass loss. I assumed that an accumulation of these small effects might turn out to be significant for the position of the planets in the CHZ thus their climatologically relevant radiation balance. Since the main effect results from the behavior of the star.
Duerbeck didn’t think of it when I approached him with this problem).4 What I overlooked was something that astronomy students learn in the beginning of their first semester (my excuse being here. this star would radiate photons and particles onto this planet thus transferring momentum onto the planet that would push it away from the star. The effect would be small but cumulative over very long periods thus helping to keep the planet inside the HZ: the naive assumption: h*f from star Illustration I.their stay inside the HZ would be increased and the CHZ would be widened. The mistake resulted from wrong 48 . Dr. The idea was as simple as it was simply wrong: If a planet orbits a star. Exkurs: Short History of a simple Mistake One of my candidates for effects of which I thought it could prove to be significant over long periods were the accumulated influences of solar wind and solar EM radiation. that even noted Astronomer Prof.
The basic concept is that the grain absorbs the light from the Sun and re-emits it isotropically into all directions.5 The situation is more easily put into quantitative terms for a small grain of dust than for a whole planet.it loses energy and moves towards the star. And the “real” situation: Moon r m sta h*f fro Aberrated radiation from star Planet Illustration I. from looking at a dynamic system in a static way. The situation can be approached in two different ways: seen from the Sun (a) and seen from the dust grain (b). the grain absorbs the light that comes radial from the Sun and then emits the energy isotropically in its own rest frame with each photon 49 . I simply did not take into account the effect of ABERRATION! The result is that my planet is not being pushed outwards but the opposite .intuition..in principle a variation of the same terms could be applied for planets. a) Seen from the Sun. The problem is similar to that of the Poynting-RobertsonDrag on a dust grain orbiting the Sun .
the velocity of the grain Rq/dt and the grains distance R from the Sun. Here the stellar radiation arrives at an aberrated angle q’ from the direction in which it moves. we will arrive at a lossrate of angular momentum for the grain of dL = hν ˙ 2 θR c2 and hν 1 dL = mc 2 L for every photon of which the energy is absorbed and emitted/scattered again isotropically in the local rest frame. b) From the grain’s point of view the calculation is different but the result is the same. This means the photon transmits a (negative) momentum pRcosq’ = -(hf/c2)R2q/dt. which is the grains orbital velocity.decreasing the angular momentum according to its mass equivalent hf/c2. cos θ = cos θ ' + 1+ V c V cos θ ' c cos θ ' = − =0 with V c Here V equals Rq/dt. with m being the mass of the grain. If a given grain has the cross section sg we arrive at: Lsol σ g dL =− L 4 π R 2 mc 2 dt 50 . If we only take into account non-relativistic terms.
In situation a) because the grain’s mass increases which then is being re-emitted in all directions. An aspect that may be of some interest is the mass that is added to the Sun by in-falling dust grains. The aberrated particles are either absorbed (naturally without re-emission). or the planet is shielded by it’s magnetic field. Those terms certainly can be neglected. therefore I will not give this aspect any further consideration. which considerably increases the complexity of the problem. However. the effect is so small that the time a planet would need to fall into the Sun as a result of the PoyntingRobertson-Drag actually is in a higher order of magnitude than the world age. To obtain the order of magnitude of the added mass I assume that one part in 108 of the Sun’s luminosity is either being absorbed or isotropically scatterd by dust grains around the Sun. in case b) because of the direct transfer of momentum by the aberrated photons. and even more so is the effect of momentum transfer through solar neutrinos. the grain looses momentum and will eventually fall into the Sun. In the case of the solar wind the situation is again a little different. For each grain n we get: mn c 2 = t n σg Lsol 2 π ( RI2 − Rsol ) with RI as the grains initial position. the effect is minute as well.No matter from which point of view we analyze the situation. 51 . Anyway. so the full momentum is being transferred.
The two changing parameters are the stars' luminosity as well as the star’s mass. For a first estimation it would be enough to include the following parameters in the model: • 52 The Sun’s luminosity at t minus 4*10 9 years equaling 75% of current luminosity with approximately linear increase.5 × 10 4 g / sec 20 2 −2 9 × 10 cm sec This means that if all changes over time (luminosity. as well as maximum and minimum flux values for the inner and outer limits of the HZ. We get: (10 −8 )(4 × 10 33 erg sec −1 ) = 4. We already have obtained equations for the range of the habitable zone around a star relative to its luminosity. 6. Due to the conservation of its momentum the planet will move outward from the star if a mass loss occurs thus following the also outward moving habitable zone.For all grains with MTOTc2 is approx. we arrive at an added mass of ca. The good thing is that now (as I have proposed earlier) the situation for my toy model of the evolution of habitable zones has become more easy to handle.989 * 1033g for the Sun’s mass. dust abundance in the solar system etc. tTOT(108Lsol). So much to my short story of a simple mistake that nevertheless brought a useful result. which will increase the planet’s time in the HZ. which is 11 orders of magnitude less than the current 1.4 *1021g during the last 4.5 billion years. .) are ignored.
• The numerical values for the inner and outer limits of the HZ and eq. estimate a zero age luminosity of 2.94 * 108 meters for the radius. Harwit et. based upon the assumed linear luminosity increase and E=mc2.7.3. Over several Eons wandering from the zero-age main sequence (point A) to point B.85 * 1033 erg/s12 for the luminosity and 6.78 * 1033 erg/s (71 % of current) and a corresponding radius of 6.1: Mass Change of the Sun Even during the hydrogen burning phase of a main sequence star a slight upwards movement on the Hertzsprung Russel Diagram occurs.59 * 108 meters for the Sun. This means . The current values are 3. I. It is not possible for me to perform an accurate calculation but merely a rough estimate which may give an indication whether or not the proposed effect is of importance.1.2. al. I. Since I assume a simple linear evolution of the Sun’s luminosity it will be enough to estimate the solar mass loss using a mean luminosity derived from the initial 53 . • Newton’s correction of Kepler’s law (eq.• The Sun’s mass at t minus 4.4).5 109 years • The Sun’s mass loss during this time.that the star becomes brighter and larger. I.as we already know .
5. Therefore I maintain my opinion that the universe is designed in a way that makes it “friendly for life” and following Lovelock’s “Gaia Hypothesis” I call the positive stellar influence on life bearing planets the “Aurora Hypothesis”. 74 × 10 9 kg 8 2 (3 × 10 m / s) c and arrive at a mass-loss of ca. This is five orders of magnitude larger than the mass added by incoming dust but still 4 orders of magnitude under the Sun’s total mass.369 * 1026 J/s.0. The following illustration shows the movement of the Sun in the Hertzsprung-Russel Diagram: 54 . On the other hand only a small effect is needed to increase the time a planet stays within the habitable zone by a few million years. Expressed as a fraction the Sun lost about 3*10-4 of its mass .5 billion years. and a few million years could in many cases be the difference between primitive life and a space-faring civilization. which is 0.75 Lsol) and the current 1.369 × 10 26 J / s m= 2 = = 3.875 Lsol equaling 3. stressing the idea that the evolution of the star adds to the time the planet stays in the habitable zone. We can calculate the mass-loss per second as: E 3.3*1026 kg during the last 4.which means that certainly the effect on the planetary orbits will be minute and maybe even insignificant.369 * 1033 erg/s or 3.luminosity at the starting time of the model (0.
1. It has unfortunately also become very obvious that the traditionally reductionist approach of science only has a limited value when applied to the immense complexity of the whole Earth.6 I.2: Internal Regulations of Planetary Ecosystems Far more important than effects of stellar evolution are internal properties of the planets.3. about which I will only give a short overview.2. The increased environmental awareness and significant research efforts in the general field of “global environmental change” have brought about considerable advances in these fields. The following purely qualitative 55 .B A Illustration I.
7 56 .illustration already gives a first impression of the complexities involved13 : noi tartsul lI Illustration I.
1996): 57 . The following graph gives an impression of some of the main factors that were of importance for the oxygen cycle in a microbial dominated paleoenvironment (from L. others . Some scientists are known to be quite disturbed because of the apparently “messy” and somewhat “fuzzy” character of nature. But this is more a philosophical discussion and I want to stay on the level of systems that obviously are of direct relevance for the planetary ecosystem. we currently do not yet get beyond the stage of more or less elaborate toy-models.are delighted about nature’s endless complexity and happy to see that a seemingly endless set of unsolved mysteries still awaits us. Only now we begin to understand some of the details of the atmospheric chemistry that resulted in the formation of the life-protecting ozone layer.No matter how complex the models are that we built. and it looks as if every large system has smaller sub-systems with yet smaller subdivisions and that small effects in one of the sub-sub divisions may result in big outcomes on the macroscopic scales. Jahnke and H.and I include myself among those . Klein. The argument can be carried to the extreme: the question has been asked whether in the end our macroscopic world is “controlled” by the uncertainty principle of quantum mechanics.L.P. The most important change of atmospheric composition that occurred on the Earth was the oxygen enrichment that finally lead to the Cambrian lifeexplosion. Nature seems to be characterized by “Chaos” in the sense of synergetic systems.
statistically averaged models have proven to be successful in describing the general behavior of natural systems with some accuracy. Nevertheless. and it seems that larger systems and long term behavior can be treated more easily than short term fluctuations.Illustration I. In the following table weather and climate serve as an example: 58 .8 It is clear that a complete modeling of nature will never be possible. A complete model would have to account for the details of the metabolic processes of each micro-organism involved.
Following the arguments of James Lovelock. usually can be modeled with some accuracy for one seasonal cycle only.. This would mean that there cannot be any life elsewhere in the solar system.Effect Time Scale Predictability Weather Weather Weather Weather hours days one week several weeks excellent good bad zero Climate Climate Climate Climate Climate Climate one year 10 years 100 years 1000 years 10000 years 100000 years excellent excellent excellent good fair fair Climate here stands for “mean global climate”. Smaller systems. a single tree responding to air pollution etc. such as the behavior of currents in lakes. But could it not be possible that life survives and even thrives in small. One of the main questions that have to be answered is whether or not an ecosphere on a planetary scale is necessary for the formation and /or continuous survival of life. a predatorprey population in a well defined area. As we saw earlier even ice-ages are relatively minor fluctuations with little relevance for the life bearing capability of the planet14 . life must be a planetary phenomenon because only a large species variety will be able to grant the necessary stability over long time scales. so the climate can be predicted over very long time scales. isolated biotopes that are shielded from harmful environments? Could there be 59 .
life in a cave under the surface of Mars or on the seafloor
of the possible Europa Ocean? Although this question
is far from being answered, there are some encouraging
discoveries: Life around hydrothermal vents on the
Earth’s seafloor as well as the lifeforms that had thrived
for millennia in the totally isolated Movile cave15 show
that not only microbes are able to find other sources of
energy than photosynthesis, allowing them to exist
without significant connection to the rest of the
ecosphere. It seems that life is infinitely innovative when
it comes to survival techniques, and if we take into
account the hellish conditions under which life has
formed (or arrived) on early Earth there is a lot of reason
for optimism about the occurrence of life throughout
I 188.8.131.52: Mars - More Reasons for
The big question is, to what extend the geological
situation on Mars had determined the possibility of the
occurrence of early lifeforms. We do know that there
was a time when liquid water was abundant on Mars
and rain was falling. Given the extent of the
geomorphological formations that were shaped by water
erosion it is possible to estimate the duration of the
liquid water period as roughly one billion years. Since
some of the impact-craters are filled with sediments and
show wall breaches that most probably were caused by
continuous water flow, the liquid water period must have
extended well beyond the time of the early heavy
Owen et. al. (1996) have proven that Mars had a
dense CO2 atmosphere of at least Earth-like pressure
and perhaps up to several times the surface pressure of
the Earth for at least 700 million years. We must bear in
mind, that on the geological time scale life appeared on
Earth almost immediately after its formation (within the
first 100 to 200 million years) and that the rapid evolution
of higher lifeforms seems to depend on the atmospheres
enrichment with O2 - also leading to the formation of
an Ozone layer that protects the land-life from the deadly
UV radiation. This brings about an interesting conclusion
As McKay et. al. (1996) have lined out, the Mars
geology is quite different from ours since no plate
tectonics occurs. Mars also is smaller, so it may have
cooled sufficiently for life to exist before Earth did. But
the really important point is that because of the lacking
plate tectonics, the lithospheric mantle of the planet did
not have to be oxidized, therefore photosynthesizing
organisms could have enriched the Mars atmosphere
with oxygen to a level comparable to that of the Earth’s
atmosphere during the Cambrian life explosion within
perhaps a mere 100 million years.
This means that even in the case of Owen’s lower
time limit for the existence of a dense atmosphere (700
million years) six hundred million years would have been
available for the evolution of oxygen dependent earthtype life. A time span that is two hundred million years
longer than what was available on Earth from the
Cambrian life-explosion to the evolution of a space
My conclusion is that even if we are cautious, it
is quite safe to say that there is at least a slight chance to
find fossils of some sort of higher lifeforms (e.g. land
plants) on Mars. Who knows what else could be found.
It is also conceivable under these circumstances that life
on Earth even was seeded by Mars-meteorites following
a heavy impact on Mars. But this is of course purely
speculative. In a private communication (1997) Prof.
Owen remained cautious regarding the possibility of
higher organisms since the life-favoring conditions on
Mars may have only occured in several periods during
the first several hundred million years and therefore the
time may have been too short for the evolution of higher
organisms or even the step from Procaryotes to
Eucaryotes (which in itself took approximately one
billion years on Earth, the reasons for which are not
completely understood yet). Owen concludes that he
would be very happy to find any life (or remainders
therof) at all on Mars. I agree and assume that we will
have to patiently wait for new results of forthcoming
Hopefully we will learn more about the dynamics
and evolution of planetary atmospheres, which will be
essential for our still very incomplete understanding of
the inner workings of the Earth’s complex ecosphere.
Some general literature used for this part:
Küppers, Bernd Olaf (ed.): Leben=Physik+Chemie?,
Serie Pieper, 1987
Dyson, Freeman: Origins of Life, Cambridge University
François (ed. Martin (ed. Julian (ed. proceedings of the 4th Trieste Conference. Dan (ed. Tom and Walters. and Sagan. Julian and Raulin. 1996 Wakeford. Cristiano.): Science for the Earth. Carl (ed. 1995 Doyle. 1996 Cosmovici. proceedings of the first international conference. Start and Werthimer. Cyril and Chela-Flores. Christian: Aus Staub Geboren. 1996 Ponnamperuma.): Circumstellar Habitable Zones. 1993 Chela-Flores. Spektrum.): Chemical Evolution: Physics of the Origin and Evolution of Life.): Astronomical and Biochemical Origins and the Search for Life in the Universe.): Chemical Evolution: Origin of Life. Laurance R. 1997 63 .deDuve. Bowyer. Proceedings of the “Trieste Conference on Chemical Evolution and the Origin of Life”. proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Bioastronomy.
Part II Search for Life in the Solar System Review of a very ordinary Star System 65 .
however. Science often is little more than trial and error. Lowel’s famous observation of Mars channels (now known to be an optical illusion) nevertheless was one of the first attempts to spot signs of alien life with astronomical means. the real search only began with the first landing on the moon and the first interplanetary missions.Part II Search for Life in the Solar System II.1: Introduction The planets in our own solar system naturally were the first targets for the search for extraterrestrial life.theories and concepts were presented in Part I. 66 . There were various other attempts to search for life in the solar system using Earthbased means. Here I will concentrate on some of these missions and other observational research results related to bioastronomy . thus nobody should be blamed for a misinterpretation of results.
or geological. We do not know yet whether or not life indeed is a rare phenomenon or whether it occurs frequently in star systems throughout the universe. The one property of the solar system that we have a certain tendency to consider unusual is ourselves.1. so generally there is no reason to think that there is anything unusual about the planetary system. Currently we do not have the technical abilities of searching for extra solar life other than intelligent radio transmitting civilizations. we also assume that the formation of planetary systems is a normal side effect of star formation. the big family of living Earth inhabitants. the sun being quite an average G2V yellow dwarf main sequence star without any unusual spectroscopic or “behavioral” properties. astronomer Otto Struve was the first who found evidence for planetary systems existing around other stars.II. This evidence was a lack in the angular momentum of many solar-type main sequence stars. Although it is not proven yet. As mentioned elsewhere in this work. geophysical and geochemical hindsight pointing towards an answer about the question whether or not this has always been the case.1: An Average Star System The solar system is a fairly average example for a star system. We are now searching for traces of either existing or fossilized life forms. There is only one known explanation: the missing momentum is distributed onto planets circling these stars. Meanwhile Earth seems to be the only world in the solar system that currently is “friendly for life”. If it would turn out 67 . which is not in accordance with star formation theory.
0. and maybe elsewhere.occurring elsewhere in space will be dramatically increased. In 1996. I will give a brief overview of our planetary system from a bioastronomer’s point of view. humans and mice on Earth are not alone . it was this objective that caused all the hysteria about the possibility of biological traces in the Mars meteorite ALH 84001.as we know it . A number of planetary probes had this task included in their missions. and that this 68 . If this discovery ever would be confirmed.can bear. The zone of moderate temperatures allowing a planet to develop into a habitable one is called the habitable zone.that other worlds once have been “habitable” and “inhabited” as well. it would mean that finally the bacteria. There are other (and for the planetary scientist more interesting) ways to determine the possible former or current habitability of other planets.including intelligent life . the chance for life . Earth and Mars are and always were situated outside the Sun’s habitable zone. A detailed treatment was given in Part I. II. Here it shall be sufficient to accept that all planets except Venus. At the same time there is a maximum temperature range life .2: Inner Solar System: The Search Begins Generally it is thought that there can be no life in the outer regions of a solar system because a minimum energy input from the star is necessary to establish a functioning ecosystem on a planet.they have (or had) brothers on Mars.
814 Density (g/cm3): 5. namely on the large satellites of Jupiter and Saturn. II.3 5. (km/s): 10 11 0.13 These numbers really let the two planets appear very similar.8 0. vel.7 59.2.5 0.996 Mass (1020 kg): 48.5° 0.91 Surface Gravity (m*s-2): 8. some prospects about discovering facts relevant for bioastronomy in the outer solar system.9 9. and this is the reason why. regarding its purely astronomical properties.1: VENUS In terms of size and mass Venus certainly is the one planet that has every right to bear the name “sister of Earth”.8 0.91 Rotation (h)17 : 5832 24 243 Obliquity 3° 23. for quite a while. however. astronomers had hoped to also find Earth-like environmental conditions on Venus and imaginations of a hot exotic world resembling the Earth’s tropical zones 69 . especially Europa and Titan.zone is changing over time with the evolution of the Sun’s luminosity. I will give some numerical comparisons16 : Property Venus Earth Factor Diameter(km): 12102 12756 0. There are.964 Esc.
Here the main temperature differences occur between the night side and 70 . On Earth the main temperature differences occur between equator and poles as well as lower and higher atmospheric regions. The slow rotation requires some kind of effective heat-transportation mechanism from the insolated side of the planet to its night side. thus a vertical (convective) heat transfer system has established itself. is 150 million kilometers whereas Venus moves in an orbit about the sun with a semi major axis of 108 millionk ilometers or 0.pervaded Science Fiction stories for two generations. and some other astronomical properties of planet Venus differ considerably from Earth. The situation on Venus is different.62 years which is 226 days.2. which is also defined as one Astronomical Unit. Semi Major Axis: The Earth’s orbital semi major axis. At the same time the planet needs 243 days for one full rotation.72 AU. Unfortunately this scenario has proven wrong. The Earth’s convection and coriolis force dominated atmospheric heat transfer balance is called “geostrophic balance”. This has two side effects: A substantially higher radiation input and a near tidal lock of the rotation. II.1. This is the known Hadley model and the same principle applies (though in different and not yet fully understood form) to the heat transfer in the Earth’s oceans.1: The Atmosphere of Venus Rotation & revolution period: Venus has a revolution period of 0.
while the major constituents of the atmosphere are Nitrogen (N2. 78%) and Oxygen (O2. therefore the heat is transported along the parallels. Wind velocities of up to 350 km/h result in an atmospheric superrotation. In Earth’s case the surface mainly consists of basalt. the question is how the planet lost it. or whether there are signs that indicate a more pleasant past with high water abundance. 21%). surface pressure and temperature. water vapor. and because of the slow rotation the influence of the coriolis force is minute. sulfur dioxide. the theoretical grounding of the liquid-water defined habitable zones concept is in jeopardy. If Venus had no liquid water even in the most distant past. traces of argon. The Venus atmosphere is composed out of 97% CO2.5% Nitrogen. The surface composition is mainly basalt and probably granite. and a heat transfer mechanism developed that effectively transports surplus energy from the dayside to the nightside. The real differences however are their atmospheric compositions. granite and water.the day side of the planet. 3. Venus should originally have 71 . According to up to date theories of planetary formation. These facts already show that despite their similarities in mass and size the two sister planets are very different. hydrochloric acid (HCL). The question now is whether the situation on Venus has always been as hellish as it is now. No dominating convection occurs in the upper atmosphere18 . hydrofluoric acid (HF) carbonyl sulfide (COS) and carbon monoxide19 . If Venus indeed had oceans. It possesses a surface pressure of 90 bar and a surface temperature of up to 400°C resulting from an enormous greenhouse effect20 .
The predictions made by theoretical models of what would have happened to water on Venus was confirmed by the Pioneer Venus spacecraft’s orbiter and main probe in 1981. And although detailed surface mapping by the Magellan spacecraft has not revealed any surface features that can be explained by water erosion. And this is indeed what Pioneer found. Theory predicts a runaway greenhouse effect with water vapor rising up into high levels of the atmosphere where it would be broken apart by photochemical processes through the sun’s UV radiation.possessed approx. gradually all of the water would be vaporized and dissociated. principally following the equation H2O + UV-Sunlight ———> H+H+O During the runaway greenhouse effect. “But the high deuterium abundance on Venus has been unequivocally 72 .” And he continues. the same water abundance as Earth. This process would leave behind a trace since the two times heavier Hydrogen Isotope Deuterium would not escape the gravity of Venus as easily. so a Deuterium enrichment in the Venus atmosphere should be observed21 . there is another indication for former water abundance on Venus. And indeed: there is evidence that Venus once possessed large amounts of water on it’s surface and in it’s atmosphere. The Hydrogen enrichment in the upper Venus atmosphere is 100 times higher than the enrichment found on Earth with its high water abundance! Professor Tobias Owen wrote that “This result was so surprising that initially it met with some skepticism. The Oxygen would react with other substances in the atmosphere (mainly C forming CO2) and the light Hydrogen would mostly escape into space.
2: Is Life on Venus Still Possible? But is it possible that under the known condition life could have managed to find an ecological niche.01 %. • The Venus atmosphere is extremely dry with relative humidity always under 0. and that we can be optimistic regarding the occurrence of good environmental starting conditions for the formation of life.1. absorption lines were found of H2O and HDO and they also have shown the same enrichment ratio. for example in an atmospheric layer some 50 km above the surface where Earth like pressures of 750 millibars and temperatures of around 37°C are found? Several facts contradict the idea of Venus “Birds and Butterflies”: • Deadly UV radiation makes the existence of life unlikely.2. 73 .confirmed by measurements of the spectrum of radiation from Venus’ lower atmosphere made with an Earth based telescope in 1989. This is the most dramatic confirmation of the theory that the conditions on early Venus may have been similar to that on Earth.” During these observations. At the same time it most probably will remain the only hint we will get because unfortunately the high erosion and surface activity on Venus has destroyed all features from the time of the early solar system. II. We will later see that this is different on Mars.
so the runaway greenhouse would just begin again. The problem here is that bringing water for example would not change the basic conditions like solar radiation input and slow planetary rotation. but evolution and survival of life as we know it ultimately needs water.• The atmosphere in this reason is filled with a mist consisting of highly concentrated sulfuric acid. It appears that in the foreseeable future. Venus will not be of any interest for any lifeforms other than planetary scientists or romantic couples in moonless nights. Of course one could wonder whether a different type of life may have evolved under these dramatic conditions (a question that cannot be answered since we do not know anything about “different types of life”) and also whether it may ultimately be possible to change the conditions on Venus in an act of “Terraforming” so that the environment would become more pleasing for possible human settlers. 74 . There are indeed some organisms on Earth that can live in such an environment for a limited time.
the question. seems to be absurd.2: Is there Life on Earth? At first sight.1 II. The question is how would we determine the existence of life on our planet if it were not our planet and we would have to rely on remote sensing techniques similar to those we apply in researching the other planets? In 1995 NASA had taken the opportunity to use the Galileo Spacecraft’s second approach to Earth during its gravity assisted slingshot flight to take a close look at our home planet. But this only is because we happen to know that there is life on Earth. A “Planetary Report” article about this unusual encounter starts as follows: 75 . “is there life on Earth”.Surplus Deuterium found Albedo Reflection Surface Absorption Illustration II.2.
”22 The data transmitted home by Galileo are similar to those that one would expect to be gathered by an alien probe visiting the solar system and it is fascinating to see how easy it is to detect life on a truly living planet.“The space probe has traveled 2 billion kilometers and twice circled the central star of this average looking solar system.. Ozone (O3) and Chlorophyll. The glint of sunlight reflected from the blue surface and the distinctive spectral signature of chlorophyll hint that something is different about this world..)23 .it may even be possible to detect habitable planets on interstellar distances and even determine spectroscopically whether or not they carry life (through the O3 bands etc. 76 . The Galileo example shows impressively that an eco-system on a planetary scale reveals itself in obvious ways . As if awakening from a sleep. Methane and the three most important signs of life: free molecular Oxygen (O2). The unique spectral resolution of Galileo’s spectral filters happen to coincide with bands that even allow the determination of plant species and health! On the other hand from distances of more than one million kilometers no immediate visual signs of intelligent or rather technological activities on Earth could be seen. Water in high abundance is discovered immediately as well as the spectral signatures of Nitrogen. the sensors and instruments come alive as it approaches the 3rd planet.
8 0.88 Obliquity: 23. Although there are obvious differences between Earth and Mars.38 Density (g*m-3): 3. Also the total surface of Mars happens to be almost identical to the total continental 77 .7 9.42*1026 5.71 Rotation (h): 24. Following Earth and Moon.11 Surface Gravity (m*s-2): 3.3: Mars .93 5.52 0. Mainly because of its brightness and red color.02 Length of Year: 686 days 365 days 1.98*1027 0.Another Planet of Life? If Venus is called the sister of Earth.5 24 1.2. A short comparison of the physical properties: Property Mars Earth Factor Radius (km): 3395 6387 0.5° 1.II.53 Mass (g): 6.02 Teff (K): 216 246 0. Mars certainly is her brother.88 The table shows that especially rotation and obliquity of Mars and Earth are very similar. since Mars most probably will be the first foreign world other than the moon on which humans will ever set foot. the similarities are just as striking.9° 23. so that future Mars settlers will not have to get used to a new day and night cycle. Mars also is the best explored planet in the solar system. and even the seasons are similar to those on the home planet. Mars has always stirred the imagination of “Earthlings” and continues to do so at the end of the twentieth century.
• The surface is highly cratered which indicates that the atmosphere of Mars has been thin for at least two billion years. but the two missions that were the first with the clear objective of searching for life of course were the Viking missions with their two landers in 78 .006 bar. All of these missions bear at least some relevance for the search for life on Mars. At the same time there are prominent signs of better environmental conditions in the past.despite several drawbacks: • The atmosphere is extremely thin with a surface pressure of only 0. All in all the prerequisites for life on Mars appear to be quite promising . • The atmosphere is dry and contains no significant amounts of free Oxygen or Nitrogen • The surface is sterilized by UV radiation allowing only for subsurface life (the small amount of Ozone is located near the surface).land surface on Earth. • The atmosphere is mainly composed out of CO2. There are large geologic features that obviously were not only formed by water erosion but actually by rain! And we still find large reservoirs of water stored in the ice of the northern polar cap (the smaller southern polar cap mainly consists of CO2 ice)24 . These discoveries were the motivation for a large number of automated spacecraft that visited Mars and that will visit Mars in the near future.
Chryse Planitia and Utopia Planitia. The first human object in orbit around Mars finally was Mariner 9 in 1971. and Mariner 9 established an upper limit for the methane concentration of 25 pbm in the Martian atmosphere.3. Still some scientists think that life might exist on Mars even under these harsh conditions because various Earth organisms could survive in this environment provided they are shielded from the UV radiation (by living under rocks or in deeper soil layers) and provided they have at least a minimum amount of liquid water available.2. II. This was mainly an optical reconnaissance mission followed by similar fly-by missions (Mariner 6 and 7) in 1969. 1965. but there were also other space probes visiting the red planet. The low surface pressure of 6 millibars ruled out the existence of liquid water. The minimum temperatures fall below the freezing point of CO2 (-125°C) and even on an average day the temperature falls to -90°C just before dawn. It is also quite possible that Mars currently is experiencing 79 . Mariners 6 and 7 discovered Ozone concentrations of less than 1 pbm using UV spectroscopy. 1000 pbm methane).1: Robots searching for Life on Mars (summary) The first close look at Mars was provided by the Mariner 4 craft as early as July 15. (Earth values: 50 pbm Ozone. and the thin CO 2 atmosphere provides a greenhouse effect that rises the temperature by only 5 K.
growth. or photosynthesis Molecular analysis Gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer (GCMS) 80 . The following table shows scientific payload and mission objectives of the Viking project25 : Investigation Instruments Viking Orbiter Visual Imaging Two TV cameras Water vapor mapping Infrared spectrometer Thermal mapping Infrared radiometer Viking Lander Imaging Two facsimile cameras Biology Three analyses for metabolism.an extreme ice age and that the conditions will become more favorable in the future. The Viking mission plan was born. In order to find an answer to the question whether or not some form of microbial life exists on Mars. the mission generally was a great success. They arrived on Mars in summer 1976. Although not all hopes were fulfilled. there was only one possibility: a probe needed to be equipped with a lander and automatic little robot laboratories that could test for signs of lifeforms in the red Martian soil. It called for two vessels each including a lander and an orbiter that could operate independently.
I will concentrate on the biological experiments. Radar observations from Earth helped to determine safe landing sites for the two landers. Unfortunately of course it was already known that no “warm and wet” places exist on Mars .Inorganic analysis X-ray fluorescence spectrometer Meteorology Pressure. In the ideal case the Viking team would have wished for a “warm. temperature. Tobias Owen said: “The scientific criteria for a landing site leaned heavily on the search for life on Mars”. wet and inhabited” landing site.at least not warm and wet from an earthling's point of view. 81 . and wind velocity gauges Seismology Three-axis seismometer Magnetic properties Magnet on sampler observed by cameras Physical properties Various engineering sensors Radio Propagation Orbiter/lander location Orbiter and lander radio and radar systems Atmospheric and planetary data Interplanetary medium General relativity Although the remote sensing aspects of the mission are very interesting. It turned out that the soil at the touch down sites in both cases was soft enough to allow the Vikings to take samples for their analysis.
3 0.3 0.7+-0.1+-0-5 3. 82 .0+-2.0 5.6+-0.2.3 20.5 4. I will give a short table with the results of the chemical soil analysis at the two landing sites: Element Silicon Iron Magnesium Calcium Sulfur Aluminum Chlorine Titanium All Others (thought to be mostly Oxygen) Percentage of Total Composition of Soil Site 1 Site 2 20.9 0.1.3.5+-0.8 3.5 14.5 12.6+-0. The Viking scientists made the following assumptions.2 50. when they designed the biological experiments: • We have no reason to expect other life bearing planets to differ largely in the general development and evolution of life. there are micro-organisms similar to those found on Earth.7+-2.9 +-2.1: Experiments for Life Three experiments on board the Viking landers were specifically designed for the search for life.5 0.6+-0.2+-2. On the other hand the overwhelming predominance of carbon dioxide seems to be clear evidence for a planetary evolution in absence of life and water.1+-4.0+-2.0 3. Before describing the biological experiments.II.0+-0. • If there is life.0+-0.6+-0.8 2.3 The above table shows that the element abundance on Mars is very similar to those found on Earth.
carbon dioxide or hydrogen in the air above the soil caused by the metabolic activity of organisms in the soil”. Based upon these assumptions (plus the assumption that the sterilization of the Viking crafts were successful and no Earth microbes would be detected) the following three experiments were included in the Vikings’ miniature laboratories: 1) The Gas Exchange Experiment (GEX) 2) The Labeled Release experiment (LR) 3) The Pyrolitic Release experiment (PR) All these experiments are based upon our scientific experience with Earth life. All organisms on Earth derive their energy from two basic processes: oxidation and reduction. The GEX and the LR experiment both followed the procedure to “offer” food to the hypothetical Martians and try to detect traces of metabolic by-products. the chicken-soup approach would reveal the presence of life through changes in the amount of oxygen. The GEX experiment mixed soil samples with several dozen nutrient solutions that are preferred by Earth organisms (which is why the GEX was coined the “Chicken Soup Experiment” by insiders). Tobias Owen again: ”On Earth. 83 . thus both processes should be present in Mars soil if life exists in it. it will be life according to Earth definition .with metabolism. • If there will be life. replication etc.• If there is life. it will be Carbon/Water based life.
84 . If any biological process had occurred the metabolic byproduct could be identified easily because they would also contain the tag atoms and some tagged compounds should appear at the place of the detector. There are two problems the GEX and LR experiments had to face: Nutrients that may be preferred by Earth organisms may turn out to even be poisonous to Mars organisms. and since liquid water cannot currently exist on Mars. the local microbes may be completely unused to watery conditions.Soil sample Gas detector Soil support Gas chromatograph Nutrient The GEX Experiment The LR experiment was able to search for biological activity more directly by tagging carbon-rich compounds of the soil with radioactive C14 atoms replacing some of the common C12 atoms.
C14 detectors Nutrient Soil sample The Labeled Release Experiment (LR) The Pyrolitic Release Experiment was designed to cope with these problems by altering the Martian environment as little as possible. The volatiles that were released during this process were caught in a vapor trap and from there they went into a counting chamber where the radioactivity of the gas could be determined. The “simulated” Martian atmosphere was only enriched with tagged C14 that could later be traced in possible metabolic by products. Any organism that had “inhaled” the tagged “air” should have been found. before the soil sample was heated to 750°C. 85 . The organisms that may have lived in the soil were allowed to “thrive and reproduce” for a certain time under the conditions they were used to.
An example is the possible reaction of H2O2 with HCOOH (from the nutrient solution) which would form water and CO2.2.1. A second wetting of the soil also showed no increase of the measured radioactivity which is a clear indication of a purely inorganic chemical reaction that took place in the test chamber. And at first the excitement was great when the LR experiment confirmed the results! Unfortunately the observations could also be explained by simple geochemical reactions.3.Xenon arc lamp Window Organic vapor trap Soil sample C14 labeled gas C14 detector Pyrolysis heater The Pyrolitic Release Experiment (PR) II.2: Results of the Viking Search for Life The measurement of the GEX had a positive result. The conclusion of the researchers was 86 .
a carbonatic chondrite containing organic material. It is more than unlikely that any organism could have adapted to such extreme temperatures. Apparently the Martian soil behaved very similar to antarctic soil which is almost sterile but still harbors some microbial life. and it also had a very weak but positive result.or that it once was26 although another experiment. the experiment still yielded positive results. including amino acids. The well grounded 87 . The PR experiment required an “incubation time” of five days. the GCMS (Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer) also brought negative results that are even more convincing. This experiment had previously brought clear positive results when it was tested on antarctic soil and on material from meteorites such as the Murchinson meteorite. but this doesn’t mean that it isn’t there . For the GCMS soil was “baked” and the resulting volatiles were scrutinized for organic compounds. Unfortunately there is a drawback again: Even when the soil sample was heated to 175°C or to 90°C for three hours (which should have sterilized the sample) before the air was tagged with C14. Finally the conclusion was that not micro-organisms but ammonia that had leaked from the Viking’s own propulsion system was responsible for the positive reaction of the PR experiment.that instead of having found life they had found a chemically active soil type that contained compounds like peroxides that produced CO2 when brought together with simple organic substances. including nonbiological ones. The higher temperature reduced the positive result by 90% and the lower temperature had no effect at all. No life was discovered on Mars so far.
Despite the possible signs of life found in Mars meteorite ALH 84001.0 it is quite safe to claim that no known lifeform could exist on the surface of our neighbor planet. The Russian missions have 88 . Since no organic material whatsoever was found. If an alien probe landed somewhere in the middle of one of Earth’s large deserts it would be impossible to derive from these data the existence of tropical rain forests. that all positive results of the Viking bio-experiments were caused by purely inorganic27 chemical reactions. the conclusion really is safe. There are regions on the red planet that may provide better prerequisites for life to thrive (for example on the edges of the north polar water ice cap). II.assumption is that there is no life where there is no organic material.1.3. And Chryse Planitia as well as Utopia Planitia indeed could be regarded as “deserts” on Mars conditions. although better still does not necessarily mean it is good enough. coral reef communities or arctic sea floor habitats. One of the cornerstone missions however was the Russian/German/American “Mars ‘96” mission which failed directly after its launch and crashed into the Pacific somewhere south-west of Rapa Nui.2.3: Future Life-Searching Missions It is still possible that the Viking landers simply looked in the wrong places. the Easter Island. A whole fleet of “small but beautiful” Mars missions are scheduled for launch by various nations during the next ten years.
December‚ 96. January 4. planned or actual launch time and the participating nations: Mars Global Surveyor Orbiter. This was NASA’s second launch as part of the “Discovery Program”. The following list gives an overview of Mars missions as scheduled on March 6. type of spacecraft involved. Mars together begins with the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer (PMIRR). August 1998. carries a stereo photo imager. The orbiter had a camera equipment that would have allowed to image surface features with a resolution of down to a few meters. Orbiter. Mars Surveyor ‘98. USA Comments: Carries five replacements for Mars Observer’s Instruments: French-supplied data relay system will send information from Russian and US spacecraft on Mars surface. USA Comments: This is a small orbiter that will continue the Mars Observer science recovery. 5-20. USA Comments: The lander will touch down near the polar region. lander and microrover. 89 . 1996. Nov. Russian. the microrover was named “Sojourner” by a student during a Planetary Society/JPL naming contest. Mars Pathfinder. a robot arm to collect samples and also a descent camera. Mars 96. USA Comments: This mission mainly is intended to be a “technology demonstration” for more extensive future Mars missions.been followed by bad luck during the last two decades with several crafts getting lost or malfunctioning prematurely. 1999. Mars Surveyor ‘98. Planet B. American (failure) Comments: This was a highly sophisticated mission which included one orbiter. two small stations and two penetrators that would have been able to search for organic compounds in deeper layers of Martian soil. Japan Comments: Mission is mainly atmospheric physics (aeronomy). 199628 listing Mission name. a Russian laser-ranging instrument and a New Millennium micropenetrator. Orbiter. Lander. December 1998. German.
mission yet to be defined in detail. USA Comments: Mission is not yet defined Mars Samp. To be determined. 2005. 2005?. They arrive at an original 90 . 2001. Comments: Mission is not yet fully defined. it originally was scheduled for 2003 A specific enigma is the Mars atmosphere: on the one hand it is obvious that in the distant past the atmospheric conditions were such. 2001. USA/Int. Mars Surveyor ‘01. that they allowed liquid water to exist and flow on the surface in large quantities. Russia/int. Orbiter. Analyzing abundance of certain isotope ratios in the Mars atmosphere and in SNC meteorites Owen and Bar-Nun29 arrived at the conclusion that the original atmosphere was mainly replenished by cometary and meteoritic impact. Comments: Formerly Mars ‘98. Orbiter and landers. to be launched on Molniya vehicle. Ret. EU and USA comments: The ESA has not yet decided upon the proposed mission. Lander. perhaps part of “Mars Together”. to be determined. perhaps part of “Mars Together” Mars Surveyor ‘01.Mars 2001. the latter at least one order of magnitude: Questions arise regarding the mechanisms that caused the enormous atmospheric mass loss on Mars as well as regarding the sources of the original volatiles that made up the ancient atmosphere.‘05. This means that temperature and surface pressure on Mars must have been much larger. 2003. Russia and the US have begun feasibility studies Intermarsnet. Rover or small stations. USA Comments: Mission will be defined later in 1997 based upon NASA proposals Mars Surveyor ‘03. 2001. USA Comments: Expected to carry the replacement of Mars Observer’s Gamma Ray Spectrometer.
Several problems remain and the model is far from being proven. providing information on Martian sub-surface features Plasma waves instrumen to measure low frequency plasma waves Imaging camera for imaging of planet and moons in three colors Dust counter to determine distribution and nature of dust in interplanetary space between Earth and Mars.5 mb which would be enough to allow for a substantial greenhouse effect. One of them are the isotope ratios of various noble gases. another the assumed existence of low amounts of methane that seems to be revealed by spectroscopic measurements. high frequency plasma waves. data gathering about D/H ratio in upper atmosphere Sounder and HF waves instrument to analyze constituents of upper ionosphere. It also is not clear yet whether Mars once had its own magnetic field or perhaps still has a weak field that could not be detected by earlier measurements. The one Mars mission devoted to these issues is the Japanese Planet B Probe.atmospheric pressure of at least 7. searching for possible dust rings around Mars Extreme UV scanner and spectrometer to provide data for future imaging of the magnetosphere and measure helium ions in the upper atmosphere 91 . Here is a short overview of the planned duties and instrumentation30 : Magnetic Field Sensor to take Measurements to determine if Mars has its own magnetic field that is draped around the planet Thermal-plasma analyzer to measure composition of ionospheric ions along track of craft Electron-temperature probe to measure temperature of nonospheric electrons UV spectrometer for remote sensing of ionospheric constituents. At the same time impact erosion might be responsible for the later mass loss of the Martian atmosphere.
so naturally Mars is at the very focus of bioastronomical research. At the same time Mars is not the only object in the solar system that is relevant for bioastronomy. it certainly is at least as important for our quest to understand it’s climate history and thus therefore the possibility of life existing (or having existed) on our cosmic neighbor.Neutral gas mass spectrometer for the detailed determination of constituents of the neutral atmosphere Radio science will collect detailed information on the ionosphere’s electron density and the neutral atmospheric pressure.3. Electron-spectrum analyzer. Another possibility is the occurrence of a moderately temperated environment under the icy surfaces of moons. II. energetic ion-composition spectrometer will measure the energy spectra. Model calculations show that objects like Saturn’s moon Titan may be very common in space and some scientists see the possibility of cold organic chemistry taking place on the surfaces and in the atmosphere of such objects replacing water as a solvent with organic compounds such as liquid methane. ion-spectrum analyzer. ion-mass imaging spectrograph. pitch angle distribution and amount of ions and electrons escaping the atmosphere Although studying the upper atmosphere of Mars may not be appealing to the imagination of the general lay public as landing on the planet’s surface. A widely discussed example is the Jupiter moon Europa where free oxygen far away from equilibrium has been 92 .2: Other Objectives Mars is Earth’s direct neighbor and currently the environmental conditions there most closely resemble those on Earth.2.
Rowohlt. B. Springer. Dyson: Infinite in All Directions. General Literature Used for Part II: A. All space missions carry payloads that are of relevance for bioastronomy . an environment similar to Earth’s deep ocean may exist. Fiebag und T. ECON. Küppers(Ed.): Leben=Physik+Chemie?. 1984 J. Atkins: Schöpfung ohne Schöpfer. 1989 B. the general probability of life occurring in space will have largely increased . If ever it will be proven that life on Mars still exists and that giant planets produce their own little “habitable zones”. Berlin. 1989 J. Unsöld. 1990 P. Sasse: Mars . It is assumed that due to internal heating induced by tidal stresses. Harper & Row.O. Paris. This will be of pivotal importance for the advancement of environmental research here on Earth.spectroscopically detected in recent years. Serie Piper. Heidmann: La Vie dans l’univers.W. Hachette. Baschek: Der Neue Kosmos.including the probability of highly developed life.the next twenty years will be the first golden age of “Search for Life in the Universe” on all levels. 1996 F.Planet des Lebens. 1989 93 .
1997 Various issues of the following periodicals: Bioastronomy News.R. 1996 L. Planetary Report 94 . Cosmovici (Ed. Mars Underground News. Doyle (Ed. SetiQuest. Spektrum Akademischer Verlag. Bologna.B. Bild der Wissenschaft. Scientific American. Physik in unserer Zeit. Physikalische Blätter. de Duve: Aus Staub geboren. Berlin. Editrice Compositori.C. SETI News. 1996 C.): Astronomical and Biochemical Origins and the Search for Life in the Universe. Travis House.): Circumstellar Habitable Zones.
Part III Climate Policy and Politics .a Regional Example Sane David loses in the Real World of Power and Money Goliaths 95 .
1: Introduction It has only been generally accepted for approximately 150 years. Spotswood Wilson was among the first who expressed concerns about the global impact of human 96 . 1830-33).Part III Climate Policy and Politics . These impacts. that the Earth as a whole is not a static system but instead subject to continuous longterm environmental change on a local and global scale (for example Lyell. At that time. were mainly evident in small tropical island colonies of European colonial powers. J. 1990). among them Jean Jaques Rousseau. demanded active environmental protection for economic. rigorous empiricists of the French enlightenment.a Regional Example III. aesthetic and moral reasons (Grove. Adverse short-term impacts on local environments due to human agricultural and later industrial activities have been noticed by various intellectuals in the 18th century (Grove. 1994). including local climate change as a result of massive deforestation.
1992. one of which was resource oriented and rooted in economics (such as again Meadows et al/Club of Rome. ample scientific evidence for many aspects of global environmental change was collected and confirmed (for example Barney et al/GLOBAL 2000. In the meantime. Holland/Petersen. 1994). alterations of the landscape and intensive agriculture could lead to a change in atmospheric composition. which then would lead to global droughts. 1992. mainly a change of the oxygen / carbon dioxide ratio. 1996). He estimated that a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 content would result in a global warming of 4°C to 6°C. 1980.activities. a value surprisingly close to the latest estimates (Cubasch. 1974). Meadows et al. 1995. 1972). a global environmental movement formed. 1962. IPCC. Schönwiese.1998. 1996. 1972. In 1858 he described a scenario reminiscent of modern global warming models. Wilson’s qualitative assessment was principally confirmed by Svanthe Arrhenius (1896) who estimated the influence of industrial CO2 input into the atmosphere using for the first time the quantitative methods of newly developed atmospheric physics and chemistry. Two different „schools“ of thinking concerned with global environmental change evolved. The idea of global warming remained a scientific obscurity even after global environmental concerns were re-discovered in the early sixties and seventies and for the first time received wide public attention (Carson. and eventually the Earth would become uninhabitable for human beings (Grove. the other was focused on ecology and had its origins in the natural sciences (for example Lovelock/Margulis. He warned that deforestation. Earle. 97 . Brauch. 1996).
and different philosophies and ethical points of view are now evident. Crutzen.) and the need for political action meeting the challenge of global change had arisen (Brundtland et al/UNCED. and they both represent extreme points of view that do not form the theme of this work. 1991. 1996). Latif. 1982-1998. The arguments became very complex. The one aspect of global environmental change that has received the widest public and political attention is the additional anthropogenic greenhouse effect and associated global warming (Schönwiese. 1989. Sarre and Reddish. Wakeford/Walters. which instead focuses on the general scientific consensus and a concrete case of related political action. 1998). Kleine/Thiesen. 1992). 1996).Williams. The deep trench between environmentalists and capitalists is not likely to be bridged in the near future. 1989-1998. Changing weather and climate patterns as well as „surprising 98 . ranging from deep ecology (every lifeform has a value of its own and should be protected) to something that could be called „deep capitalism“. 1994. 1987 and UNCED. major political and economical groups still simply deny the existence of a problem (among them Bailey. 1996. „Sustainability“ as a goal of national and international policies was now widely demanded. where only profit counts (Altvater. Bach. Although within the scientific community a general consensus now exists that global environmental change 1) exists 2) poses a threat to nature 3) endangers future development (for example Lippold et al. Cubasch. 1992. 1998). 1989-1998. 1996. Redclift/Benton. 1994.
The goal of this work is to obtain a quantitative estimate of the difference between the demands of science and environmental pressure groups on the one side. and one of the best achievements in the real world on the other.atmospheric events“ (Lovelock. This work therefore focuses on scientific results and the effectivity of local environmental policies in the field of climate policies related to global warming. the city of Münster. 1996) caused by global warming would affect every part of the Earth and therefore could be considered the most global of all environmental problems. 99 . The main question that arises is: are traditional local political and economic structures as well as legal tools in a free market society able to develop and implement strategies and actions appropriate for the challenge at hand? And another question: how is „appropriate“ to be defined? The implementation of sound environmental indicators is necessary. The current standing of research on global warming and related policies will be reviewed. will be compared. as will recommendations of scientists and the results of climate protection actions in Germany’s „Klimahauptstadt“ (Climate Capital) 1997.
EU and Japan are responsible for 34% of all greenhouse gas emissions (World Resources Institute. 1990).3%. together 33.8%. 1996): 100 .7 t. Brauch. the United States alone emitted 23. the old Federal Republic of Germany with 11.2 t. both German states reached 5.2. The industrialized regions USA.5t (Enquête Kommission des Deutschen Bundestages I. III.7% (Enquête Kommission des Deutschen Bundestages I.8% of all CO2. This consensus was signed by 2000 leading meteorologists and climatologists from 130 countries (IPCC 1992. followed by the United States with 19. 1996.3%.7 t and Japan with 7. 1990). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has presented a general consensus of results regarding the scale of the threat caused by global warming. remaining OECD 9.9% or together 44% (Oberthür. 1992).1: Global Results and Activities Approximately 50% of the world-wide anthropogenic greenhouse gas output in the 80s was related to the energy.6%. Japan 4. In 1989 the energy-related CO2 emissions were: USA 22.2: The Example of Climate Change: A General Overview of Research and Policies. The former German Democratic Republic (DDR) was the leading per-capita emitter with 21. 1994. 80% of which were CO2 emissions. 1993). EU 11. Among the results presented in these reports are (after Lashof.III. In 1986. 1996).and traffic sectors.
1996).2 t for North America. showing a general 101 .3°C to 0. was perhaps the most important achievement of the 1992 Earth summit“ (Reddish and Blackmore. 1996:285). It has to be taken into account. During the 1992 UNCED conference in Rio de Janeiro.0 t for the united Germany and 8. compared to the emissions of 1987 (Brauch. 13. „The agreement .9°C and 5°C until the year 2100 The mean sea level will rise between 15 and 95 cm IPCC experts advised that .7°C during the last 100 years The global mean temperature will rise between 0. that energy related emissions will continue to show substantial growth rates in the developing world due to increasing economic growth (for example Reusswig. the Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed by 150 states and ratified by 50 states within the following 18 months. a legal regime was established to cope with global warming and the convention was brought into force in 1994 (Simonis.1 t for Japan (Brauch.energy related greenhouse emissions in the industrialized countries should be reduced by at least 20% until 2005 and by at least 80% until 2050. 1996).. In 1994.in order to minimize the negative effects of climate change . 1996). 1996). the per capita emissions per year were 20..• • • • The atmospheric CO2 content rose by 30% since pre-industrial times The global mean temperature rose by 0. Although no emission reductions were agreed upon and the convention was not legally binding.
No relevant global or per-capita emission reduction was so far achieved. 1995).cannot be considered relevant if compared to IPCC recommendations (ECO Newsletter/NGO Newsletter. Other possibilities include energy taxation. This already shows that increased efficiency is one possible way to reach the global reduction goals demanded by the IPCC (Weizsäcker et al. due to which the total emission may rise even if per capita emissions are reduced. All of these have strong opponents for various economic and ideological reasons (Sandbrook. Generally the economic lobbies appear to have been successful.4 time more efficient than the East European and 9 times more efficient than the Asian economies. 1997). 1996. 1996). 102 . trading of emission certificates. Bailey. The three leading industrial countries are responsible for 1/3 of the global CO 2 related anthropogenic greenhouse effect. 1998).. especially when population growth is considered. including China (Scientific Advisory Council on global Change. and international agreements .increase. Brauch. Jarass. 1998. „joint implementation“ of reduction measures (such as implementing modern lowpollution „OECD“ technologies in the developing world) and many more. 1995. 7.such as the Kyoto Protocol . At the same time the Japanese economy uses energy roughly 3 times more efficient than the North American or German.
the „EK II“. The EK I had 22 members .and 51 independent research institutes were involved in the preparation of 150 individual studies.2: General Results and Activities in Germany The federal government of West Germany and later the re-united republic brought several commissions and advisory councils into life in order to establish a foundation of solid facts about global environmental change/global warming. It was followed by a second commission. the other half members of parliament . The first of these. 1996). 103 .2.III. 1990. further comments below). Another main advisory body is the „Wissenschaftlicher Beirat Globale Umweltveränderungen“ (scientific advisory council on global environmental change) of the German federal government. the EK I (among other results) finally recommended a CO2 reduction of 30% until 2005 for Germany (based upon 1987) and 20 to 25% for the EU in the same period. It therefore went substantially beyond the minimal recommendations of the IPCC (Schmidbauer et al/EK I.half of them scientists. in 1991. the Enquête Kommission or „EK I“ (Study Commission) „Schutz der Erdatmosphäre“ (Protection of the Earth’s Atmosphere) was established in 1987. Especially the EK I was characterized by an open discussion and thorough scientific assessment of the global warming problem (Kords. Despite far reaching ideological disagreements and differing opinions among the political members.
Kords. Hartenstein. 1996. which at that time was one of the major „players“ in the field of global environmental policy in Germany (Kords.Interestingly neither the German Green Party nor environmental non-governmental organizations (with the exception of Greenpeace) showed interest in cooperating with the EK I and did not contact the commission. The EK II was more dominated by political than by scientific work (Bach. which must be regarded as a severe conflict of interest (Mayntz. 1996. although those recommendations remained vague (Kords. 1996). 1993). 1993. 1996). 1996). public interest in environmental issues had declined. 1996). Although ideological differences were considerable and remained unresolved. Schellnhuber. 1992) and a number of lobbies were able to influence the commission by various means (Mayntz. 1993). but the general conditions had changed (Kords. 104 . Fundamental differences among the various commission members became evident in the fields of transportation and the regulatory role of the state in a market economy. The EK II was established to continue the work begun by the EK I and prepare the German government for the UNCED conference 1992. Kords. the EK II accepted the scientific results as presented by the IPCC and EK I and recommended various actions. The most obvious case was that one of the EK II „Experts“ was a department head at the automobile producer Daimler Benz. economic and social problems began to dominate (Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen. 1994. After the re-unification of the two German states.
The EK II did not fully achieve the goal of
developing concrete action plans, although various fields
of possible activities were identified. An inter-ministerial working group (Interministerielle Arbeitsgruppe,
IMA) „CO2 reduction“ had been installed in 1990, and
together with the EK II the original EK I reduction goals
were partly taken back (25% minimum until 2005 instead
of 30%). The reduction goal was later ratified by the
federal government and nevertheless represents the
world’s strongest reduction commitment (Schafhausen,
The IMA developed a federal action plan for CO2
reductions, which, largely due to the conflicting interests
of various political pressure groups and economical
lobbies, generally were not carried out (Schafhausen,
1994; Kords, 1996).
Although the high reduction goals of the German
government are impressive, they largely reflect
Germany’s special historical situation (Ganseforth,
1996). As seen above, the German Democratic Republic
had the world’s highest energy related per capita CO2
emission resulting from a highly inefficient and largely
coal based economy. This situation dramatically changed
after the re-unification of East and West Germany. The
collapse of the East German economy, euphemistically
called „re-structuring“, resulted in an immensely
decreased per capita emission (minus 46,9%) for East
Germany between 1987 and 1994 (Schafhausen, 1996).
In the same period the per capita emission reduction for
West Germany was 6%31 .
It is important to bear in mind that despite these
impressive relative values the average per capita CO2
emission for Germany was 13 tons compared to 11,7
tons for West Germany alone in 1989. This is not the
progress the German government advertises. In fact it
is an increase of more than eleven percent compared to
the better West German value (Bach, 1998).
Although the total emission of the new republic
was indeed decreased by 168 million tons or 15,8%
compared to the value of 1987, the emissions have begun
to rise again with increased economic growth, reestablished industrial production and continuously
increasing traffic density in East Germany (Schafhausen,
1996; WBGU, 1998)32 .
In addition to federal activities, climate protection
agencies, round-tables, Agenda 21 offices and many other
organizations, activities and networks dealing with
climate change were established locally in the last years,
many „first steps“ have been taken in numerous
communities. This is marked by substantial difficulties
since the energy market is monopolized in Germany and
most energy related laws (including general building
codes) are federal laws, therefore the influence of local
authorities is relatively limited.
III.3.1: Research Methods and
The complexity of the issues „Global Change“
and „Environmental Policies“ made it necessary to select
examples and search for a simplified approach. „Climate
Change“ and energy related CO2 emissions were chosen
as the problem, and the city of Münster was chosen as
the sample region, for which the effectivity of policies
was evaluated. „Climate Change“ is one of the most
popular environmental issues, and the city of Münster
was identified as the community employing the most
effective climate protection policy in Germany.
This work will therefore assess the effectivity of
policies in the „best“ community relating to one of the
most pressing long-term problems. The effectivity can
be expected to be above average. An objective analysis
of climate and energy policies in Münster therefore
should give a good impression of how effective environmental policy in a modern industrial country can be.
Most publications currently available about Münster as well as protocols of city council meetings in Münster relating to climate and energy policy were obtained
and reviewed and compared to independent scientific
publications. Conferences and symposia on environmental policy held in Münster in 1997 and ’98 were attended
to obtain an up-to-date impression of current
developments and opinions. Informal interviews were
conducted with conference participants.
These activities were complemented by personal
contacts and interviews with various scientists and
administrators in Münster and elsewhere during the last
two years. The formal interviews took the form of an
opinion poll with the purpose of obtaining educated
opinions of informed individuals that could serve to
establish an additional qualitative impression. Ad hoc
interviews took place during conferences and symposia.
Organized formal interviews were conducted in personal
talks (3 interview partners) and utilizing internet
technology (email poll - 22 questionaires were sent out,
6 answers were solicited, 3 of which resulted in the
mentioned formal personal interviews).
The main epistemological concept behind the
interviews is the assumption that experts who are
involved in the subject on various levels have gained
substantial insight from different perspectives that cannot
easily be emulated by a single research effort. The
intention was to utilize the experts’ opinions to
complement the research, fill in the remaining gaps and
qualitatively test the results.
Otherwise the nature of the task at hand resulted
in a literature based approach, utilizing data, reports and
opinions from as many different sources as possible. An
extensive survey of literature on global change - focusing
on global warming - was followed by the analysis of
literature related to political and scientific activities in
Germany and more specifically to local climate and
energy research and policies in Münster.
An important source were the various reports of
the city’s „Beirat für Klima und Energie“, together more
than 2000 pages of detailed regional analysis published
between 1992 and 1995 (Gertis et al, 1995).
250. the north-western half of the German Bundesland „Northrhine Westphalia“. Due to the city's rural location and agricultural tradition. A town with a population of approx.000 students. the importance of Münster is emphasized because it is home of Germany’s third largest university with ca. a local technical college (Fachhochschule) with ca.3. the hypothesis was that the necessity for stricter environmental policies would be 109 .2: Münster . the university is the largest employer.000 students. financial institutions. 45. 14.000 in a generally rural region naturally has a high centrality. Only two major industrial corporations (both chemical industry) are located in Münster: „BASF Lakke und Farben“ and „Armstrong World Industries“.III. Given this background. and farmer organizations have strong political influence in the area. income and living standards are above the German average. Münster’s population is generally well-educated. cultural and economic center of Westphalia. insurances). although the fraction of the population working in the primary sector is not significantly higher than elsewhere in Germany. the primary sector still is of higher importance than the industry.Germany’s „Climate Capital“ 1997 The city of Münster is the administrative. administration. twelve high schools (Gymnasien) and a wide variety of private and public technical schools as well as a catholic university. The city's economy is largely focused on the tertiary sector (mainly education.
The University’s Center for Environmental Research 110 .of higher acceptability in Münster than it generally is in other parts of the country. Ill. III. no.3: Climate and Energy Research in Münster In Münster33 .3.1: Map of the Münsterland and Westphalia III. the fields of environmental as well as climate and energy research with local and regional as well as global relevance is relatively well developed.
Prof. The latter offers a new study emphasis in environmental policies (Umweltpolitik . Wilfrid Bach and the „Internationales Wirtschaftsforum für Regenerative Energie“ or „IWR“ (International Economic Forum for Regenerative Energy). He serves as head of the EU Barents Sea Impact Study (BASIS). the University’s institutes for geography and geo-ecology host two working groups that are particularly concerned with the energy/climate field: the „Abteilung Klima und Energie“ under Prof. 1991. 1991). Bach was member of the EK I and involved in many climate change related research programmes around the world. Dieter Jarass and the „Institut für Politikwissenschaft“ (institute for political science). and the Geographical Institute has been a major research center for climate modeling and climate impact research as well as promoting regenerative energy in NRW for many years (Werner. 1998)34 . In addition to the activities of the ZUFO. Prof.Wittkämper. Other university institutions that are directly or indirectly involved with related issues are the „Institut für Umwelt. The last three focused on „Environmental Policy in Europe“ (1998). Bach. Manfred Lange from Münster’s Institute for Geophysics is active in climate impact research.(Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Dr. „ZUFO“) holds annual symposia.und Planungsrecht“ (Institute for environmental and planning law) under Prof. 111 . „Global Environmental Change (1996) and „Energy and Environment Strategies for Sustainable Development“ (1997).
Weik/Gertis. 1994/1996). 1995): 112 . The latter was defined as reaching the minimum goal of a 25% reduction of CO2 set by the EK II. The distribution of the actual CO2 emission of 2. 1993. 41 percent of which were used for heating (households and commercial/industry/administration). Deiters/Schallaböck. the city of Münster had an overall energy consumption of 9092 GWh in the year 1990. The main task was to critically assess the current standing of climate relevant emissions in Münster. 1996. 3% for industrial process heat. It consisted of six eminent scientists and had a function very similar to that of the federal „Enquête“ commission (see above). 1995. According to the assessment of the advisory council.In 1991 the „Advisory Council for Climate and Energy“ (Beirat für Klima und Energie) was established in Münster. demands the far more ambitious goal of 50% reduction until 2010 (Gertis et al. Bach.3 million tons in 1990 is shown in the following graph (after Bach. The „Klimabündnis deutscher Städte“ (climate alliance of German towns). of which Münster is a member. 29% for light and electricity and 26% for the transportation sector (Stadtwerke Münster. 1995). develop reduction scenarios and to identify concrete steps towards a more sustainable energy-future.
Ill.2 (after Bach and Lechtenböhmer. III. agricultural traffic and passenger railroad traffic included. 1997). 96) It must be noted here. that according to Bach (1996) the 29% of the traffic sector neither include air traffic originating at Münster’s international airport. Contributions of the agricultural sector (in addition to traffic) also are ignored. 113 . no. nor are road and rail based cargo transportation. whether Autobahn transits on the A 1 and A 43 were considered. It could not be determined. Regional commuting traffic was taken into account (Umweltamt Münster.
Bach.III. traffic regulations and the “Energieeinspeisungsgesetz”. the federal government and the general public. which regulates the guaranteed prices for privately produced electricity. All these leave the local authorities on „Länder“ and community level with rather limited possibilities. emission limits for heating systems. researchers. The advisory council has determined the following theoretical reduction potentials for CO2 emissions in different sectors (after Bach. but these possibilities still open a theoretical potential of almost 24% CO2 reduction until 2005. 1995.3. according to Bach. based upon 1987 values (for Münster. 1996). Klopfer. 1995. local environmental NGOs. The city council of Münster had planned to base their energy policies on the recommendations of the „advisory council energy and climate“. in Germany most laws relevant for energy and therefore climate are federal laws. 1995): 114 . taxation of primary energy. A coordination office for climate and energy (Koordinierungsstelle Klima und Energie or „KLENKO“). Deiters/Schallaböck. These include building codes (insulation). businesses. 1996.4: Climate and Energy Policies in Münster As mentioned before. 1995. and an Agenda 21 office were installed to coordinate the work between relevant departments of the city administration. with data from Weik/Gertis.
Substantial efforts were undertaken to increase the acceptance of public transportation . district heating etc.0 322 -253 20.0 -5.1 (after Bach.1990 Field Housing (insulation. III. Specht/Wildt/ Umweltamt Münster. Realizing this. 1996. 1997). heating.they can merely encourage them.6 total 2301 -540 -23.5 -11. heat/power coupling. insulation of old buildings and free energy consulting for new buildings (Bach. the city of Münster concentrates on different ways to encourage industry and population to save energy and develop a more „energy friendly“ and sustainable behaviour.8 -8. solar energy) Electricity in tertiary sector (reduction and substitution) Power transformation (coal substitution.5 701 658 -253 -36 -36. The city is engaged in public environmental ethics education (saving energy means „doing the right thing“ and also results in financial advantages) and at the same time began to offer financial support in the form of direct funding or local tax reduction for renewable energy projects. 115 .) Traffic sector (reduction/substitution) kt 620 Reduction potential until 2005 kt %a %b -185 -29.these included dramatically increased parking fees and reduced parking spaces in the city.1 -11. higher bus frequency and the mandatory purchase of semester-tickets for public transportation by all students (intended to reduce the number of students commuting into town by car).0 Table no. 1996) Cities in Germany do not have the authority to enforce energy related CO2 reduction measures .5 -1.
In addition an advisory council for „Globale Entwicklungszusammenarbeit“ (global development cooperation) was formed to search for possible joint implementations of environmentally friendly policies and projects with cities around the world. the city began to develop a local Agenda 21 plan following the recommendations of the UNCED ’92 conference. The city council of Münster decided to undertake an annual climate protection inventory (Klimaschutzinventur). As a result. Münster joined the „International Council for Local Environment Initiatives“ (ICLEI) and the „Klimabündnis“ (Climate Alliance). KLENKO. 1997). The latter results in the city’s commitment to reduce local CO2 emissions by 50% until 2010 (Specht/Wildt. The Agenda office itself opened in 1997.. The local Agenda 21 is supposed to „guarantee a sustainable development for the city of Münster in the 21st century“ (Stadt Münster. 1998). following the directions of the city council. Five employees from different sectors of the administration „.The advisory council climate and energy has stressed the fact. The first inventory for the years 1990 to 1995 was published in 1997 (Umweltamt der Stadt Münster. 1998) and is planned to be signed in 1999.now begin to organize the dialogue with the citizens. 1997). 116 . One office clerk was employed to coordinate these activities. 1995) and therefore isolated technological and sectorial approaches can never be a final solution..“ (Agenda Büro Münster. that the climate problem and other environmental problems practically touch every aspect of human life (Weik. 1997.
The famous definition for sustainability given by the UNCED’s „Brundtland Commission“ (1987) is „. social scientists.meet the needs of the present 117 . experts in international law and natural scientists all have different approaches. the definition of sustainability is not trivial. political scientists. different jargons and express very different points of view. As lined out in the introduction..3. and what cannot (Loske. this is where the common consensus ends. 1997. 1997) and that it will not be possible to reduce environmental side-effects of human activity to zero. which in addition is very problematic due to communication problems among experts from highly diverse fields. an ongoing dispute exists about how to assess its effectivity. Economists. Pfister/Renn. 1997). An ethical decision is unavoidable to arrive at a solid definition of what can be considered sustainable.. 1998. and therefore a framework for the development of effectivity indicators for environmental policies.5: Effectivity Indicators for Local Climate and Energy Policies Since the beginning of environmental policy. A general agreement exists. „Sustainability“ is the commonly agreed upon goal. Philosophical and ideological disagreements as well as scientific uncertainty lie at the heart of the discussion. as it once more became evident during the recent Symposium „Umwelt und Europa“ (Environment and Europe) organized by the ZUFO center for environmental research and held in Münster on June 15 and 16. that every economic activity affects the environment (Loske.III. however.
. such as SO2 and NOx. the medical field etc. that this is not possible (Schellnhuber. Reddish and Sarre (1996:113) comment: „The focus on needs has the strength that it puts the interests of the less developed world high in its priorities.“ Pfister and Renn (1997:7) wrote about the „Brundtland“ definition: „The Sustainability postulate therefore is oriented at the needs of humans. and successfully applied in the 1979 UN ECE „Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution“ (Nagel..as the entire report . What makes it difficult to apply the precautionary principle to global environmental problems is the „fuzziness“ of the whole field. The „Critical Loads and Levels“ concept demands scientifically justified upper 118 . 1996)..is mainly anthropocentric since „. One example is the precautionary principle. But why should one want to give future generations the possibility to meet their needs? Can this demand be derived from objective realities?35 “ And „objective realities“ are indeed the biggest problem.. 1995). What are the „needs of future generations“ in detail? How can the effects of our current behaviour on the ability of future generations to meet their needs be assessed in an objective and scientifically sound fashion? Fact is. and the development of effectivity indicators for environmental policies must include an ethical decision.“. It is currently impossible to define for example global critical loads and levels for CO2 emissions. which is accepted as common sense in other risk areas such as air traffic.Nature is regarded only as a resource base to be used widely. nuclear power.without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs“. but they criticize that the statement . (Lindsay. 1993). as it is possible for other pollutants.
in fact more than twice as many bicycle users changed to busses than car users (Gertis et al. the number of bus passengers increased by forty percent after the mandatory semester ticket was introduced together with other measures mentioned earlier (Stadt Münster. which is not applicable for CO2 on a global scale. This development was sold as a success of Münster’s environmental policy. that the majority of the new bus passengers were students who previously used bicycles for transportation . a closer analysis revealed. The first useful indicator for the effectivity of local energy and climate policy is the contribution of local efforts to the global reduction of greenhouse gases. 1995).pollution limits that can be tolerated by given ecosystems (Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen. however. 119 . 1996). the contribution of a given area to the global CO2 emission budget may still remain the same or increase. Commuting traffic and the general density of car traffic on the other hand had increased at the same time. In Münster. Even if for example local coal power plants would be closed. Another set of indicators is more concerned with social and economic issues. if electricity then would be imported through the European network. A mere shifting of the CO2 emissions to different geographic locations is no solution. 1996) is the number of citizens using public transportation. 1994). therefore the indicator „number of passengers using public transportation“ by itself is invalid for an assessment of CO2 reduction policies and measures. Examples for this would be decreased local energy and industrial production but increased import (goods and/or energy). An example for a crude indicator (Sandbrook.
Another example is the replacement of fossil fuel based energy systems with solar energy. 1996). the federal study commissions EK I and EK II. political goals and the actual performance. the effect of local CO2 emission reduction can be quite different from the global one. whereas in the case of an environmentally oriented policy it should be assumed. since the energy that was invested during the production process and therefore the energy-pay-back time have to be taken into account. If the policy stresses the economic side. Overall contribution to global CO 2 reduction therefore is the only satisfactory effectivity indicator for local CO2 related climate policy. if the necessary equipment was not produced in the region. the pattern may reveal. that especially high-cost solutions are supported (with little respect to CO 2 reduction). without considering the full energy balance. Another useful means for assessing the effectivity of local energy and climate policy is the allocation pattern of subsidies for environmentally oriented technology and technology development and a comparison to other fields. The most convenient numerical indicator is a comparison between the scientific recommendations (in this case those of the federal scientific advisory council global change/WBGU. Presentation of the global impact is often distorted (Baccini/Bader. that support of low-cost variants with high CO 2 reduction potentials is preferred. and locally the climate and energy council of the city of Münster). the „Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung“. 120 . If a coal power plant in a given region is replaced by photovoltaic systems.
that the most effective climate action plan would concentrate on lowimpact technology like combined heat-power plants. 19941997). Saving electricity also is a very attractive and economically sound way to reduce CO2 emissions. III. It is mainly a matter of education and information to increase their use. The overall fraction of CO2 emissions in the city of Münster that are caused by electricity consumption in all fields is 27%. 1996) These values make it very clear. and even small changes of daily 121 . Weizsäcker et al. low energy houses and additional thermal use of solar energy. Energy effective technologies already exist (Lovins/Lovins.The following table shows the overall economic cost for different approaches to CO2 reduction (in DM per ton reduction)36 : Ill. support of wind power. no.3 (from Meixner. 1982-1998. reduction of electricity consumption.
behaviour (turning off stand-by appliances etc. The importance of electricity consumption for the future is enhanced by the fact that . the high cost (both .in terms of money and in terms of energy) and low efficiency practically disqualify current (1998) solar-electric energy technology as a serious means for an effective globally relevant CO2 reduction strategy in central and northern Europe. In addition. 1992. 1997). as also demanded by Bach (1996). 1996). 1995).it is closely connected to economic growth and it rose by 37% in the sector „small consumers“ (mostly commercial/tertiary sector) between 1980 and 1991 (Stadtwerke Münster.) and investing small amounts in very simple energy effective technology (such as fluorescence light bulbs .especially in commercial fields . The effect is therefore considerable and justifies continuing campaigns and education programmes encouraging energy-aware behavior. There is little potential in Germany for increasing the overall fraction of water power.„energy saving lamps“) can result in an immediate reduction of 10 % and more in electricity consumption plus medium term financial benefits (Thiesen/Thiesen-Sagra. 122 . At this stage larger Photovoltaic projects should be seen as part of feasibility studies and research to find ways to increase the efficiency in the future (for example Weber. Bach.
1995).4.IIII.1: CO2 Reduction Scenarios for Different Sectors . It is already decided on the level of communal planning.1. These recommendations took economic and environmental aspects into account. It is possible to save energy without additional costs. Recommendations that can be followed without any or with little investments by the city have the highest priority. followed by progressively more expensive methods (Gertis et al.1: Reduction Possibilities and Realities in the Sector „Housing and Household Heating“ The advisory council „climate and energy“ developed detailed recommendations for CO2 reduction strategies in the housing and building sector. These sectors should therefore be a major focus of local energy and CO2 reduction policies. whether a new residential area will be energy saving or energy wasting. III. developing a hierarchical set of recommendations emphasizing cost/benefit aspects.Two Case Studies The two individual sectors with the largest contribution to CO2 emission in Münster are traffic (29%/658kt) and household heating (27%/620 kt).4.4: Analysis IIII. A proper north-south orientation of the buildings can result in an additional 123 .
The federal „Wärmeschutzverordnung“ or „WSVO“ demands a mandatory „Wärmepaß“ (heatcertification) for all new buildings. A second positive result is the more favorable situation for using active solar energy since the average usable solar radiation rises from ca. 1995. 1993). 1992 . In Münster a value of 0. The city-owned energy company (Stadtwerke Münster) also offers financial support for the installation of solar heating systems which is estimated to have an accumulating CO2 reduction potential of 180 t/a (Weik et al. A consequent north-south orientation of all new buildings alone therefore could lead to saving approx.passive solar energy input of 30% during the heating periods (compared to East-West orientation) of up to 6 kwh/m2. which is assumed to result in an additional reduction of 43 t/a (all based upon Weik et al. 408.000 kwh/a. This reduction accumulates every year as long as the strategy is applied.1995). so more than 116 t CO2 reduction per annum could be achieved through proper planning of building orientation with no additional costs. According to the environmental office of the city of Münster. 1997).284 kg CO2 emitted for each thermal kw/h was determined. 124 . The city council expects that 30% of the house owners would install solar collectors with an average size of 6 m2 and an efficiency of 35%. This certification is required as proof that the overall energy efficiency (heating system and insulation) complies with the new stricter standards. KLENKO. 1993). 600 kwh/a to 900 kwh/a (Weik. „concrete steps have been undertaken to implement this proposal“ in the communal building planning. based upon a building rate of 1600 new residential units per annum (Weik.
whereas the city was advised to set an upper limit of 50 kwh/m2a. they can make certain demands and establish certain codes for buildings on their own grounds. Enforcement of existing regulations therefore could result in additional reductions. The heat certification (Wärmepaß) was introduced in 1997 and is available free of charge. In Münster. This would result in an additional accumulating CO2 emission reduction of 772 t/a (estimated by Weik et al. It forms a part of the city’s new „Förderprogramme Altbausanierung“ (public financing for the improvement of old buildings) with an energy focus (Pott et al.The advisory council proposed an initiative to introduce a communal heat certification for old buildings. which is 50% of the overall building activity. which is not a very clear statement. 1995). The federal WSVO sets an upper limit for the heating needs of new buildings of 100 kwh/m2a. about 800 units are built on ground sold by the city each year. In 1996 the city decided to set the following heating energy limits for new buildings to be built on public ground: 65 kwh/m2a for single family homes (free standing). 1995). Compliance with these 125 . 60 kwh/m2a for row-houses and 50 kwh/m2a for condominiums/apartments. Also according to Weik (1995) due to organisational problems the federal regulations of the WSVO were not yet controlled or enforced in Münster. Here it is estimated that educational and information campaigns will develop their own dynamic and lead to a CO2 reduction of 100 to 5000 t/a (Beirat für Klima und Energie. Although communal authorities have no influence on federal laws and regulations (such as the WSVO). 1997).
1995). According to Blohm and Pietzner (1993) it is necessary to reduce this average value by at least 50 kwh/m2a. where it is directly responsible. The average heating need in Münster was assessed as 200 kwh/m2a due to the large number of old buildings with low insulation standards. Heat-power coupling is not supported. In the case of one model project . The city now supports between 5% and 15% of the costs for new insulation (walls. windows) and new heating systems. The advisory council stresses that the city has to take action to improve the situation in public buildings. 1996). The council recommends that all new buildings should be planned according to the low energy standard 126 . Weik et al (1995) estimate that a reduction potential of 2000 t CO2/a could be achieved in public schools alone. Many schools for example are still heated with inefficient electrical heating systems and generally public 2 buildings need far over 200 kwh/m a heating energy. yet it still is far too high with 180 kwh/m2a. In 1995 most of the 111. The reduction potential is large since the situation is exceptionally bad.700 units were in need of improvement. The publicly supported building improvement programme was initiated in 1997.regulations now is the prerequisite for purchasing public ground (Umweltamt Münster.000 t and would require a private and public investment of DM 55 million per annum for a ten year programme (Weik. if the average specific heat need would be reduced by merely 30 kwh/m2a.the „Kardinal von Galen“ high school . which could result in an annual CO2 emission reduction of roughly 143.it was possible to reduce the specific heating need by over 50%.
1995): • • A pilot project / feasibility study for a solar based district heating system for a new settlement with 60 units was recommended. Mr. The advisory council considers it desirable to achieve that at least 30% of all households in the city install photovoltaic systems. City personnel was reluctant to give any further information. 1997). It was suggested to cover the southern flank of the now closed landfill „Coerde“ with a one MWpeak photovoltaic power plant.of 30 to 50 kwh/m2a and follow Swiss guidelines for low electricity consumption. According to the city. Pott from the Bauamt (who held a talk about the new heating certification during a symposium last winter) merely revealed that „they are in the same building“. In addition it was suggested that photovoltaic energy from private producers should be „fully subsidized“ by the city. The scenario would result in a DM 0. the planning office in charge of the relevant planning and execution. it was not possible to determine whether any of these recommendations are followed by the city’s „Hochbauamt“.025 increase of averaged electricity costs per kwh in the city area and could. Asked about the cooperation between the Bauamt and the Agenda Office. Despite several phone calls. concrete guidelines are currently „under consideration“ (Pott et al. Additional recommendations of the advisory council were (Weik/Gertis et al. according 127 . This was estimated to have a CO2 reduction potential of approximately 100 t/a. This is estimated to result in a CO2 reduction of up to 583 t/a.
however. 1995. Thiesen. The annual costs of these two recommendations would add up to at least DM 1. 1994. Bach. the number is too small to be conclusive. over 20% of the population of Münster are students. economic growth declined. it is not even theoretically possible to meet the 50% emission reduction goal which the city subscribed to as a member of the Klimabündnis (Climate Alliance) until 2010.5 million annually.to Weik/Gertis et al (1995) and the KLENKO (1997). This is particularly important since according to the advisory council the sector has the highest overall reduction potential (Gertis et al. result in a CO2 reduction of 8000 t/a. 1997). unemployment is high. compared to the value of 1990 (KLENKO. following all recommendations would result in a CO2 emission reduction of 29% in the sector „housing and household heating“ until 2005. 1995). Weber. In addition. Although this positive development in part may be a result of stricter building codes and various city initiatives. based upon the assessment of the climate and energy council. 128 . 1996). 1997). the CO2 reduction costs using photovoltaic were calculated to be DM 3000/t (Weik.3%. which should be considered a lower limit since for example AC/DC conversion losses were not taken into account(Weizsäcker. A 1997 assessment revealed that the heat energy consumption in the city of Münster sank by 2. 1995. Since 1990. in other words: Germany is in a recession. Assuming a lifetime of 20 years of an average PV system and an energy pay-back time of 5 years. It would be possible therefore to meet the federal goal of 25% to 30% reduction. According to Weik and Gertis (1995).
The mild winters of 1994/95 and 1995/96 also have to be considered.3% emission reduction in this sector are a continuing trend. In his response to the Internet poll Dr. In 1990 80% of all university students were supported by government loans.5% in 1997 (dpa. It is not clear.population. easy to install non-central heat power coupling units.. to a lesser extent. 1996). whether CO2 reduction is the only. for the support of building renovations and solar heating. This may have to do something with economic interests: profit of local companies in part flows back to the town in the form of business taxes (Gewerbesteuer). Kiese. The money would be better invested in small heat-power coupling systems (Blockheizkraftwerke) since the CO2 reduction per money unit is at least 15 times higher (Weizsäcker. The same is true. which may have led to lower household-related energy consumption. Unemployment and financial insecurity therefore may well be reasons for more cost conscious behavior of Germany’s .Government student loans were dramatically cut back in the period between 1990 and 1995. 1992. Meixner. The city’s decision to subsidize photovoltaic installations is questionable since it causes high costs with little effect for CO2 reduction. or even the 129 . nothing of which can be achieved with the support of small. academic director of the Institute for Geo Ecology confirmed this assessment and stressed that „The wrong areas are subsidized“. it will not bring the city of Münster close to the minimum federal reduction goal of 25%.and therefore Münster’s . 1997). But even if the 2. increased building activities reduce local unemployment and therefore the social burden on the city etc. compared to 13.
1995). With a share of 29% of the overall emissions. 1997). and future projections show that the traffic density will continue to show high growth rates. NOx. the traffic sector nevertheless is the largest single source of CO2 emissions in Münster.4. III.2. air transportation and railroad cargo (Schallaböck. SO2). and the Münster airport shows growth-rates of approximately 8% per annum (Deiters/Schallaböck. Fischer (1995) estimates that emissions by air transportation 130 .2:Reduction Possibilities and Realities in the Traffic Sector III. but Schumann (1995) estimates that air traffic is responsible for up to 30% of traffic related climate relevant emissions (including CO2. goal of Münster’s „Climate and Energy“ policy in the building and housing sector. The share of 29% does not yet include commercial street transportation (trucks). 1995).main. No concrete figures are available yet.4.1: The Real Situation Münster is Germany’s „bicycle capital“ with a larger number of bicycle-km/a per person than any other town in the country (Stadt Münster.1. Professor Weik (1998) commented the difference between potential reduction and reality as „sobering“. Despite more efficient engine technology.1. In addition the town has a well developed public transportation system.
originating in Germany will triple until 2005. Although it is acknowledged that between 1990 and 1995 more than twice as many bicycle users than car users changed to public transportation (Deiters.2. growth rates are known to be correlated with GNP growth rates. narrower roads.5 kt CO2 in 1994. discontinued expansion of road system. (EK I.2: CO2 Reduction Strategies in Münster’s Traffic Sector The recommendations of the climate and energy advisory council relating to traffic mainly focus on possibilities to reduce the motorized individual traffic.especially since it shows above average passenger growth rates. Clearly serious CO2 reduction strategies must include far reaching measures in the traffic sector in order to achieve any significant global reduction goals. 1995). compared to the base year 1987 (compare EK I. reduction of 131 . Street-based cargo transportation generally is assumed to produce approximately 10% of all CO2 emissions from the transportation sector.4. 1995). The same will be the case for the Münster airport . The air traffic related CO2 emissions in Münster are estimated to have risen from 40 kt CO2 in 1990 to 49. 1990.1. III. Deiters. supported by restrictions for individual car traffic (such as lower speed limits. 1990). the council recommends an offensive price policy of public transportation. population growth and other economic indicators.
1991). The recommended strategy is to close the inner city for private cars. the council recommends a concept called „city of short ways“. the relative share of individual motorized traffic of overall transportation in Münster would sink from 37% to 34%. better regional connections). Calculations for the scenario „Offensive Public Transportation Policy“ arrived at the following reduction potentials: If the number of bus users will rise by 50% until the year 2000 and another 20% until 2005. None of the latter two recommendations are likely to be implemented. At the same time the share of bicycle traffic would probably sink from 32% to 27%. Another 1/4 of all trips are from suburbs to the city. According to 132 . In addition the attractiveness of the train system for commuters should be enhanced (higher frequencies. 1995). 1995).parking places. the resources for which are difficult to allocate (Mayr. Since 1/4 of all „mobility activities“ take place in the city's center.) and continuing support for bicycle traffic. which would allow access to all public offices by walking or bicycle. higher parking fees etc. The German Bundesbahn recently (1998) announced a reduction of regional train service and a future increase of ticket prices. that of public bus transportation would rise from 10% to 18%. so that commuters from suburbs would be „encouraged“ to utilize public transportation (Schallaböck. and a (currently not existing) street car system is recommended for in-town traffic (Deiters/Schallaböck. and a street car system for Münster would require a very large investment.
This is not likely to happen. new train stations etc. 1997). 1995). servicing. Almost 40% of a car’s total energy balance is not related to direct engine exhaust but to production. the principle is the same and must not be ignored and has to be included in any global assessment (see also Baccini/ Bader. In addition. 1. 1995).Schallaböck et al (1995). 1995). road building and maintenance (Geiger et al. In this scenario. 1996). Other recommendations include strengthening the central functions of smaller towns in the Münsterland in order to reduce the attractiveness of Münster and therefore the number of ways to town (Deiters. KLENKO. 133 . this would result in an estimated CO2 reduction of 19 to 26 kt/a (with constant population) or 13 to 21 kt/a (taking the expected population growth of 4% until 2005 into account). since it also weakens Münster’s economic base. This reduction does not count the additional emissions that result from building activities (new bus-roads. 1995.125 additional bus users per day would result in a CO2 reduction of merely 1t/a (Deiters/ Schallaböck. the climate and energy council again suggests to continue information and education campaigns with the goal to enhance the „Umweltbewußtsein“ (environmental awareness) of the public.). nor that related to the production of the additional busses and trains necessary for the scenario. Although the situation for busses certainly is shifted towards the direct engine exhaust. The city administration believes that this alone could result in a traffic related CO2 emission reduction of 15% (Deiters/Schallaböck.
increased population and therefore increased consumption is likely to directly result in higher cargo traffic. 1996). it could be the result of fluctuations . Truck cargo transportation in Germany showed an increase of over 10% from 1994 to 1995 (Baratta et al. The increase of CO2 emission in the two excluded sectors alone certainly exceeds the announced reduction several times (Wuppertal Institut. • Due to the economic situation (recession) and policy change (cut student loans). Although this reduction was already considered to be a success for the city’s climate and energy policy (KLENKO 1997). • The two traffic sectors with the highest growth rates (cargo. air transportation) are ignored. 134 . Schallaböck. the following facts should be considered: • A reduction of 0. 1998).also uncertainties of the assessment could not be determined. 1996). • The specific gasoline consumption of cars in Germany shows a small but continuing decline (Wuppertal Institut. households in Münster have less money available and therefore will have a tendency to travel less. 1996.The 1997 KLENKO assessment arrived at an overall emission reduction of the traffic sector of 0. Since Münster has no significant industrial production.31% within five years is much too low to indicate an ongoing trend.3% from 1990 to 1995.
1996. population growth and the growth rates of air transportation and cargo traffic are taken into consideration. there is little political will on the federal level to do anything against the interest of the industry. and since the car industry is Germany’s most important economic factor. The most effective means . will continue to rise. Punctual initiatives (such as the semester-ticket) sometimes have undesirable side effects (bicycle users changing to busses) and educational programmes are counteracted by the marketing strategies of car companies that result in an unbroken growth rate of car sales in Germany (Baratta et al. which will result in increased traffic activity. 135 . Kordes. especially if economic growth. It is not conceivable that any significant progress will be made until 2005.energy taxation and exhaust regulations for cars (Steuern und Mengenregelungen) . The image of „car equals freedom“ appears to be too strong to be counter-acted by mere reason.are not available for local authorities since they are under federal jurisdiction. and most likely the CO2 emissions of the traffic sector in Münster. 1996). 1996). It has to be remembered that even the traffic expert in the federal study commission was a high official of Daimler Benz (Hartenstein.• The city has zoned several residential areas outside current suburbs. 1996). This will neutralize in part the reduction achieved by new buildings built in accordance with low-energy guidelines (Bach. The traffic sector shows the difficulties local energy and climate policy has to face. as elsewhere.
One short interview was possible with Mr. An anonymous caller of the latter institute who for unknown reasons refused to reveal his name stated that „The Institute does not have an official opinion regarding these issues and answers questions about environmental law only“ (sic).III. it is disturbing that it is already difficult to solicit mere opinions. and answers to the internet poll also only came from natural and social scientists. Heiner Pott from the City of Münster’s „Bauamt“ during the Symposium „Energie und Umwelt“ of the „Studenteninitiative Wirtschaft und Umwelt“ in December 1997. As stressed by the publications of the Umweltamt Münster (1997) as well as Bach (1996) and many others. for effective climate protection measures it is necessary that all major players as well as every citizen cooperates.2: Opinions as Qualitative „Indicators“ Unfortunately it was not possible to get an interview appointment with a representant of the administration in Münster. The scientific director of the Institute for GeoEcology37 in Münster declared himself incompetent and refused to make any statement. Interview appointments were postponed over and over again with the arguments of „workload“ and „time restrictions“. Bearing this in mind. Jarass). H. Interview details can be found in the appendix. and the same was the case with the director of the Institute for Environmental Law (Prof. Formal interviews were all carried out with local scientists.4.D. 136 .
It also was not possible to get a single clear statement from any of the environmental organizations in Münster. Social scientists seem to have a more positive opinion about the effectivity of environmental policies than natural scientists38 . Nobody felt responsible. Kiese41 . and repeatedly merely the published work of the climate advisory council and the KLENKO assessments were pointed out and colorful brochures were offered. The natural scientists on the other hand. but they are far from sufficient and far from being an objective success“. since the concepts of „protecting nature“ and „doing something against the greenhouse effect“ are now firmly rooted as positive ideas in society. who called them exaggerated). Social scientists tend to stress the slow and cumbersome cultural processes. and first measurable changes can be observed. a cultural inertia that has to be overcome. From this point of view. 137 . the efforts in Münster (and generally in Germany) are then considered to be successful. tended to support the precautionary principle and stressed the still unknown scale of the impact of climate change (Hülster 39 and Lange 40 ). Since all interview partners firmly believed that neither the IPCC nor the local CO2 reduction goals can even remotely be met. Apparently a significant difference exists between the opinions of social scientists and natural scientists. Generally the IPCC recommendations were considered to be reasonable (with the exception of Dr. the natural scientists tended to have an opinion that could be summarized as: „The efforts in Münster are better than nothing.
Heiner Pott from the Bauamt Münster. However. This is revealing since it would be the most cost effective CO2 reduction possibility. they also could not be included in the 1997 assessment if comparability is to be assured. in the interview with Prof. Pott admitted that for example heat-power coupling for household heating is not supported by the city’s renovation programs. but one with little positive economic effect for the region. 138 . Mr. the question arose. Since road and air transportation were not included in the 1990 assessment. Lange. Krämer stressed that this is due to methodological reasons. were not included from the beginning on. why the two sectors. During the short informal interview with Mr.Regarding the weaknesses of the official reports (leaving out crucial sectors). Dr. of which it has been known for a long time that they have high growth rates.
For example: should the energy-related CO2 emissions resulting from production of goods that are consumed in Münster but produced elsewhere be added to the local Münster-budget? Münster received the title „Climate Capital 97“ for 81 environmental projects (several of which were not or only indirectly related to climate or energy) and for the (compared to German average) low CO2 emission per capita of 7. 1997). Since Münster has little industry. despite the fact that emissions related to electricity obtained from other regions are taken into account (Gertis et al. 1995). The emission details 139 . it is very likely to show a higher than average import of consumer products.III.1: Comparison of Effectivity Indicators to Reduction Goals. and although the goal of the council was to determine the contribution of Münster’s CO2 emissions to the global budget (Gertis. also results in higher cargo traffic. At least in part the low per capita emission is an illusion.5: Conclusion III. which indeed touches practically every aspect of modern life. This complexity makes an analysis very difficult. Another methodological problem is the failure to include all sectors (or parts thereof). Achievements and Assessments in Münster The sincere efforts of the various researchers involved with the „Climate and Energy Council“ of the city of Münster have shown the complexity of the issue. Partly these are related to material flows.5. as mentioned above. 1995)42 . some methodological difficulties remain. which.7t/a in 1995 (KLENKO.
„The hypocrisy of the north is paternalistic. practically for all times. Lange. it is between 20 to 100 times lower than that of forested land (EK II. production of animal food. Especially the agricultural sector has numerous environmental impacts and it also is energy intensive (production of fertilizer and other agri-chemicals. 1996). According to the EK II (1992) the contribution of land use change to the carbon budget is not relevant in Germany. It could be said that a deliberately deforested land reduced its emission allowance (ECO Newsletter. Hülster and Krämer however all stressed that the topic of global climate change already is complex enough and the discussion of CO2 sinks leads to further complication and additional loopholes. Pakkesem. all this to assure a methodologically consistent approach. Air traffic and cargo traffic were not accounted for. That deforestation in the Münsterland already occurred one to two centuries ago does not change the fact that the local CO 2 absorption capacity was dramatically reduced. 1992).). 1998).and model projections for the two only large industrial corporations were not published due to „Datenschutz“ (data protection) (Klopfer. This also is controversial. although the same has happened in the industrialized countries before.“ (BBC TV interview. heating of greenhouses in winter. It can only be concluded that it was ignored for political reasons. and agriculture was completely ignored. Although an agricultural land area also has a certain carbon fixation rate. gas consumption of agricultural vehicles and processing of products etc. 1998) and therefore land use change due to agriculture has to be included in the assessment. 140 . Many developing countries complain that they are being blamed for massive deforestation on their territories.
the result is inconclusive at best. A longer timeline is necessary to clarify whether a real local trend superimposed to the national one exists at 141 . Prof. 1997. 1997). a total reduction of 3. the influence of local policies on this small reduction is difficult to determine. 1997).in this case the necessary CO2 emission reduction . Lange argued that the values are too close to the federal tendency to seperate the effect of local policies from general trends. changes of the federal political framework and a rapidly changing technology. The same argument applies as for the individual sectors that were assessed before: with all the uncertainties involved in determining the actual emission as well as economic and social fluctuations. Greenpeace. Allnoch. After correcting this value for the population growth. and the political side has a tendency to present every action as a success. an ethical decision is necessary before requirements . If the effectivity of climate and energy policies in Münster is judged against the standard of the city’s own proposals and commitments.9%. Critics did not expect more due to „economic and sociopolitical realities“ (Bach. 1996.can be defined. The per capita emission reduction averaged over all sectors was published as 4.2: Does Germany’s „Best Effort“ Meet Expectations and Objective Requirements? Due to the complex nature and the scientific uncertainty involved with the human impact of local activities on global environmental change.2% remains for the selected sectors only (KLENKO.5.III.
1998). III. some of the main obstacles for effective climate protection initiatives and policies are: • • • • lack of information lack of motivation financial restrictions insufficient political framework All of these factors are interconnected and affect every level of society. from large corporations to individual citizens.the federal goal is 25% to 30%. 1998. interview with Krämer.3: Outlook to the Future According for example to Bach (1996) and others. Many of the most effective tools for environmental policy. and Münster’s own reduction commitment until 2010 is 50%. that the trend of overall CO2 emission in Germany has turned and rises again since 1996 (Wuppertal Institut. are not controlled by local but by national 142 . Another problem is that the reduction commitments of the city council were highly unrealistic. The climate and energy council arrived at a theoretical reduction potential of 24% until 2005. that the old strategy of „think globally. such as environmental taxation or emission limits.all.to say it again . or whether the observed reduction is merely an artifact resulting from background noise and the fact that problematic sectors were not included. It should also be noted. act locally“ has severe limitations. This cannot be achieved without truly dramatic and costly action. The example of Münster shows. while .5.
ozone-hole = skin cancer etc.was widely called „political suicide“ (Weizsäcker.) and tends to expect immediate technological solutions. However.(federal government) or supranational (EU/EC) authorities.as recently proposed by the Green party in the form of a „Aufkommensneutrale Energiesteuer“ . but also low environmental standards and therefore better possibilities to externalize environmental costs (Stahel. which means low labor costs. And despite all criticism it must be acknowledged. Discussions of adverse economic effects of environmental taxes by far dominate the scene. that environmental policy in West-Germany has been effective in coping with local problems of environmental quality43 . which tend to act slowly and be prone to lobbyism and conflicting political interests. 143 . although all political parties have included the option of environmental taxation in their long-term programmes. public pressure in the field of global environmental politics and policies . The majority of the „general public“ appears to be only interested in environmental questions if their immediate well-being is potentially threatened (smog = asthma. In a world of economic globalization the „Standortdiskussion“ gains immense importance.with the exception of NGOs . 1998). Publicly demanding an energy tax in Germany . 1996). since global change is not a pressing problem for the population of Germany and other countries which are the main contributors to global pollution and resource destruction.currently is nearly non existent. The economic scene is more and more dominated by global players who simply place their production facilities in the countries with the best conditions.
1994-96). 144 . 1993). but they can only be considered to be humble first steps. who themselves are not willing to compromise their material welfare (see also Meadows et al. Simonis.have to act now“ (Kohl. better environmental and scientific education of the public (Kaminski. having to cope with the change that was not avoided. minor alterations of the existing socio-economic system may prove to be highly inefficient in a world of ever increasing population where ongoing GDP growth continues to be the absolute priority. we „.. 1997 and many others). 1992 and many others). 1994). Current local and global environmental activities surely are better than nothing. there are few reasons for optimism for the proponents of the precautionary principle. We need a „paradigm shift“ (Gruhl. It is likely that environmental policies of the future will more and more become policies of reaction instead of prevention. If sustainability really is accepted as a guideline for human economic and social behaviour. They will remain far from sufficient as long as a world of six billion tries to achieve the post-industrialist lifestyle of the rich élite in the „developed“ world. 1987). 1992. The thought most terrifying for conservative politicians might then become a necessity if a global collapse is to be avoided: a different form of society and economy. We need an „efficiency revolution“ (Weizsäcker/Lovins/Lovins. a different form of „global change“ (Altvater. but even in Germany far too little has been achieved.Although in theory it is known what has to be done..
a closer examination reveals that they are supported by American national direct mail experts with close connection to mining. The editor. is paid for by the Western Fuels Corporation. forestry and ranching interests (Barry. a „scientific“ report that basically claims man made global climate change is non-existent. The results of this overview indicate. especially since right wing purely profit oriented organizations utilize the bad information standard of the public for a very successful anti-environmental campaign on a global scale. regularly visited the editorial boards of newspapers and spoke to state legislators. This is a cleverly disguised conglomeration of seemingly unconnected and independent groups.Germany is considered to be a world leader in climate protection. 1997). The chances for a serious implementation of globally effective preventive climate protection policies appear to be low. There are many other similar examples. Professor Schallaböck’s latest assessment (August 1998) of the contribution of the airport to the CO2 emissions in Münster. To mention only one example: the World Climate Report. forests and other natural resources. an organization of coal producers and purchasers. 145 . The „wise use“ movement in the US fights environmental laws that would restrict the commercial use of wetlands. that the best local effort of this leading country is not likely to even meet its minimal goals. These trips were paid for by large electric utilities. however. for example concludes that the emissions from increased air traffic alone easily eradicate the effects of all other climate protection efforts combined. Patrick Michaels. one Dr.
. The public has a tendency to believe the more positive statements. Messages like these lead simple minded people to think that environmental protection is something that is not necessary anymore. which is a fatal mistake." "The general public cannot distinguish between a real scientific statement and a mock statement that comes from a fake industry organization claiming to be a real institute.. The same science that is trusted in all other fields is widely ignored and even ridiculed when it comes to the global collapse we eventually face.The „Columbia Journalism Review“ reveals that „such organizations (. and the industry propaganda is as simple as it is simply wrong: • Environmental protection costs money and jobs since it is dangerous for the industry. • The state of the global environment has never been better than now and the environmental protection standards have risen constantly. The most important line was „I hope the Russians love their children too“. oil drillers and land developers. and they sometimes adopt green-sounding names such as the National Wetland Coalition. The question now mus be: what about the CEOs who are in control of the globalized industry? Do 146 . which was quite a hit on the height of the cold war. called „Russians“. which in fact mainly consists of natural gas companies. There was a song by Sting.) are most likely to be financed by land developers and industry trade groups. when the world faced a potential nuclear annihilation.
5: Energy Consumption in West Germany (source: IWR Münster): Ill no.6: Total Energy Consumption in Germany (source:IWR Münster): 147 . III. no.4: Energy Consumption in East Germany (source: IWR Münster): Ill. III. III.they seem to care about their children? About your children? Do they seem to care about anything aside from shareholder values? Appendix Ill. no.
Academic Director of the Institute for Geo-Ecology in Münster (written response to Internet poll): • • • • • • • • • • It is possible that the officially achieved emission reduction represents the real value. even if insecurities are taken into account. climate impact researcher at the Geophysical Institute in Münster and head of the EU BASIS (Barents Sea Impact Study) project (45 minutes interview): • Climate policy in Münster is indeed taken seriously. based upon the low numbers and short time period. Münster’s reduction goals will not be reached (quote: „Auf keinen Fall“ . Prof. IPCC and EK recommendations will not be met. industry.„in no case“). The government supports the wrong projects. A trend cannot be assumed. climatologist and geographer. commerce and population. 148 .„Climate Interviews“ the main statements in short: Dr. this interest stagnates. Dr. Olaf Kiese. Resistance begins to form in the administration. The reduction achieved so far is not only a side effect of economic fluctuations. The influence of local policies on global emission reduction is relatively low. Manfred Lange. The IPCC and German Study Commission (EK) recommendations for emission reduction are exaggerated. Although there still is interest in global environmental problems among the population.
He insisted however. and probably not even the federal goals. Hülster): • • • • • • Complex social and cultural situation has to be considered. Prof. Problem is mainly socio-cultural and not technical. Klaus Krämer.• • • • • High goals are necessary. Precautionary principle should only be applied if 149 .the word „self awarded prize“ was in the air). but the situation in Germany is far better than in many other countries. The precautionary principle is an absolute MUST. The achievement in Münster is not much different from Germany in general. Dr. Lange questioned the validity of the title „Climate Capital“ by asking who awarded the price (the awarding „Klimabündnis“ is an alliance of several German cities . Achievements so far can nevertheless be considered a success. it will be completely impossible to meet the reduction goals set by the city council. The IPCC recommendations are reasonable. Statements of politicians about the issue are not reliable. Natural scientists tend to underestimate cultural inertia. that environmental protection has to take place on all levels in order to arrive at any results at all. Although the reduction trend will continue. together with Dr. sociologist and CEO of the Center for Environmental Research (Zentrum für Umweltforschung) in Münster (90 minutes interview.
Anke Hülster. Economic situation may have influence on „environmental awareness. Discussion about sinks and historical land-use change is useless. Dr. see above): • • • • • 150 Precautionary principle is common sense. General population in Münster can be considered „environmentally aware. and must be applied like elsewhere in society. Dr. environmental concern is easily forgotten. . agronomist.“ Economic situation has little or no influence on environmental awareness. Krämer. Hülster agrees that the average citizen for example often cannot distinguish between „Ozone hole“ and „Ozone pollution“. Discussion about sinks and historical land-use change is not useful due to scientific uncertainty and complexity. if other problems dominate. Generally environmental education of population is not sufficient. Krämer stressed the honesty of the advisory council report.• majority so whishes and more knowledge becomes available. Achievements in Münster cannot be considered a success if compared to goals. It is not likely that IPCC or local goals will be met. Current reductions are too low to derive future trend. • • • • Dr. Scientific Director of the Center for Environmental Research (ZUFO) in Münster (90 minutes interview together with Dr. technology and science. complicated and untangible.
Member of the Federal Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) and Director of the Institute for Soil Science in Göttingen (informal interview during the 1998 ZUFO Summer Symposium „Umwelt und Europa“): Like Dr. Krämer. every small achievement already is a success. Germany and Münster are faring well. It will not be possible to reach the reduction goals (quote: „Das Ziel. although he admits that the criteria for „success“ in this case are quite debatable. Dr.. Prof.• IPCC and local reduction goals will under no circumstances be met. He suggested a pragmatic and optimistic approach since scientific uncertainty also could mean that „everything is not as bad as it seems“. Dr. Otherwise Dr.. deputy director of the „Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (response to Internet poll): • • • A part of the CO2 emission reduction in the building sector is due to the fact that Münster’s standard in this sector was substantially below federal average. In his opinion. 151 . Consumption and transportation are not completely included in the assessments. Dr.erscheint arg ehrgeizig“). Beese stressed that if the difficulties and obstacles involved in global and local environmental policies are considered. Stock points out literature. Friedrich O. Beese. Manfred Stock.
and in her opinion the German population has one of the highest standards of environmental education and awareness in Europe. especially in economically difficult times. but generally only a small fraction knows something about the details. 2) Due to time restrictions they will not be able to make an interview appointment in the near future. Among the environmental non governmental organizations with whom it was neither possible to get an interview appointment nor did they respond to the Internet poll were: Umweltforum Münster. Sastre specializes in environmental education. Greenpeace Münster. 152 . University of the Balear Islands (informal interview during 1998 ZUFO Summer Symposium „Umwelt und Europa“ in Münster): Dr. The „Amt für Grünflächen und Naturschutz“ (Office for Green Areas and Nature Protection) did not react. Ana Calvo Sastre. The Agenda 21 office did not respond at all. the Agenda office and other parts of the administration. One of the questions sent to the Agenda office referred to the form of cooperation between the city’s Umweltamt (environmental office). Dept. She also commented that environmental problems do not have a very high priority.Dr. Naturschutzbund Münster. The interview-request was passed on to the Umweltamt which explained that: 1) They cannot answer any questions as long as they do not know what the answers will be used for. of Educational Sciences.
did not react.Prof. Dr. director of the „Internationales Wirtschaftsforum Regenerative Energien“. did not respond. Dr. Schallaböck from the Wuppertal Institut sent their latest and very helpful papers on climate policy research without further comment. Prof. Hierbei ist einzig und allein die REALE Verminderung der Emissionen von Treibhausgasen in der globalen Betrachtung maßgebend (im Gegensatz etwa zur Verlagerung von Produktionsstätten etc. did not respond to interview requests. Director of the Cimate and Energy working group the the Institute for Geo-Ecology Münster. Wilfried Bach.. Norbert Allnoch. Prof. geophysicist and alternative energy expert at the Institute for Geoecology Münster. Dr. The original interview questions (translation below): Für die Universität London arbeite ich derzeit an einem Bericht über die Effektivität lokaler Klimaschutzmaßnahmen. Julius Werner. Sie erhielt 1997 den Titel „Klima- 153 . Als Beispiel für Deutschland dient die Stadt Münster. former member of the federal study comission and the advisory council in Münster. Ott and Prof. wodurch lokale Bilanzen ohne globalen Nutzen geschönt werden). no reaction however to interview request or email poll.
Energiesparen und CO2 Verminderung.2% innerhalb von fünf Jahren bereits einen Trend bis zum Jahre 2010 fortzuschreiben? • Halten Sie es für möglich. sowie Landwirtschaft (inklusive Landnutzungsänderung und damit verbundene Zerstörung von CO2 Senken in der Vergangenheit) und auch produktions. die Haushalte verfügen allgemein über weniger Geld etc.2% ausgewiesen. ist demnach also Deutschlands beste Bemühung in Sachen Klimaschutz. Da der Bericht unter großem Zeitdruck angefertigt wird. daß der ermittelte Rückgang der Emissionen im wesentlichen eine Begleiterscheinung ökonomischer Fluktuationen ist (Münsters Studenten etwa müssen sparen aufgrund massiv zurückgegangener BAFÖG Förderungen. • Halten Sie diese Zahl für realistisch. nicht in die Bilanz eingegangen sind? • Ist es Ihrer Ansicht nach gerechtfertigt. angesichts der Tatsache.hauptstadt Deutschlands“. wäre ich Ihnen für eine schnelle Antwort sehr dankbar.)? 154 . Im Bericht der Klimainventur der Stadt Münster von 1997 wird eine Reduzierung des CO2 Ausstoßes der Stadt von 3. auf der Basis einer Reduzierung von lediglich 3. Im Zusammenhang damit möchte ich Sie um Ihre Meinung zu folgenden Fragen bitten.und transportbezogene Emissionen durch außerhalb Münsters hergestellte Konsumgüter. daß straßengebundener Güterverkehr und Flugverkehr (beide weisen hohe Wachstumsraten auf).
Bevölkerung)? • Sind globale Umweltprobleme für die MEHRHEIT der Bevölkerung überhaupt von Interesse? • Für wie wichtig halten Sie die Einhaltung der IPCC und EK Vorgaben? • Wie groß ist Ihrer Einschätzung nach der grobe Anteil lokaler politischer Maßnahmen an der Gesamtreduzierung der globalen Treibhausgasemissionen? • Gehen die bisherigen lokalen und nationalen Schritte in der Bundesrepublik Ihrer Ansicht nach weit genug? • Werden Ihrer Meinung nach die IPCC Reduktionsvorgaben für die OECD Länder erreicht? Ist dies 155 . vor allem. Gewerbe.• Wie sehen Sie REALISTISCH die Chancen lokaler Klimapolitik bei wenig ausgeprägten Maßnahmen auf nationaler und internationaler Ebene? • Münster hat sich durch die Mitgliedschaft im Klimabündnis zu einer 50% Reduzierung der CO2 Emissionen bis zum Jahre 2010 verpflichtet. daß dieses Ziel bei steigendem Wirtschaftswachstum sowie zunehmender Bevölkerung erreicht werden kann. Sind Sie der Ansicht. wenn die oben genannten in der Bilanz bisher ausgelassenen Faktoren mit einbezogen werden? • Wie ausgeprägt ist Ihrer Erfahrung nach die Zusammenarbeit zwischen den Beteiligten (öffentliche Verwaltung. Industrie.
.. therefore it represents Germany’s best effort in the fields of climate protection. The report of the city of Münster Climate Inventory 1997 states a reduction of CO2 emissions of the town of 3. Münster will serve as an example for Germany. for your opinion regarding the following questions (.unter den gegebenen globalen politischen und wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen überhaupt möglich? English translation of interview questions: Climate Interview Only the real reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the global view is relevant (as opposed to for example the relocation of production facilities etc.) • 156 Do you consider this number realistic.. energy saving and CO2 reduction.2% between 1990 and 1995. as a local scientist. bearing in mind the fact that road-bound cargo traffic and air traffic (both show high growth rates) as well as agriculture (including land use changes and the connected destruction of CO2 sinks in the past) and also production and transport related emissions caused by consumer goods produced outside of Münster all did not enter the balance? . Connected to this I would like to ask you. The city received the title „Climate Capital of Germany“. which would result in polished local balances without global benefit).
commerce.• Do you think it is justified to claim an ongoing trend until the year 2010 based upon the reduction of merely 3. Münster agreed to reduce the city’s CO2 emissions by 50% until 2010.)? • How do you REALISTICALLY assess the chances of local climate policy as long as measures on the national and international level remain weak? • Through its membership in the Climate Alliance. Do you think that this goal can be reached. population)? • Is the MAJORITY of the population interested in global environmental problems at all? • How important do you think is it to meet the IPCC and EK recommendations? • How large do you roughly estimate is the share of local climate policy measures compared to the overall reduction of global greenhouse emissions? 157 .2% within five years? • Do you consider it possible that the determined reduction of the emissions is mainly an effect related to economic fluctuations (Münster’s students have to save due to cut student loans. industry. especially if the above factors are taken into account? • How well-developed is the cooperation between the involved parties (public administration. the households generally have less money available etc. considering ongoing population and economic growth.
N. K.. contributed talk. S. Axt. Altvater. 158 .Kritische Gedanken am Ende des Jahrtausends.und Solarenergienutzung in Deutschland. and Vestner. M.): Ökologische Gesellschaftsvisionen . Bewertung und Steuerung. Allnoch. H. 1996.: Ökologische Steuerreform . Oxford University Press. T. 1996. Heidelberg. Erfassung. Symposium Energie und Umwelt . Verlag Westfälisches Dampfboot. Baccini. Höfer. and Allaby. 1996.• In your opinion. (ed.: Zur Situation der Wind.Strategien einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung. Münster. A. Oxford. Münster. oder Umweltplünderung und neue Welt(un)ordnung. Bach.: Regionaler Stoffhaushalt.: Der Preis des Wohlstandes. do the current local and national steps in the Federal Republic go far enough? • Do you think that the IPCC reduction recommendations for the OECD countries will be met? Is this possible at all in the real existing global political and economic framework? Sources and Bibliography: Allaby. E.P. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. contributed talk. Spektrum Akademischer Verlag. Berlin.Eckpfeiler einer umweltverträglichen Energiepolitik. and Bader. Birkhäuser. 1996. P. 1997.: Oxford Concise Dictionary of Earth Sciences. P.
1996. June 17-18. Bailey. Münster. (ed. Symposium Energie und Umwelt . M. Bayertz. Baratta. Verlag C. A. Münster. L. Berlin.und energiewirtschaftliche Perspektiven. 1998.): Der Fischer Weltalmanach. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. K. (ed. 1992. 159 . 1991.: Globale Umweltveränderungen und die grenzen der ökologischen Moral.: Warum die Welt nicht untergeht. and Jain. Münster. interner Bericht für Greenpeace Deutschland. 1996. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Reader’s Digest. Müller.Strategien einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung. 1997.und Energieforschung des Geographischen Institutes.O.): Sparen beim Heizen. Fischer. Stiftung Warentest. Abteilung für Klima. W. Bach. Bauerschmidt. Münster. Bach. Frankfurt am Main.v.Symposium Energie und Umwelt . Stiftung Warentest Sonderheft Energie.Strategien einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung. Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“. Beckmann.: Vom drohenden Klimainfarkt zur Klimastabilisierung . 1997.F. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. no. R.Wie der zusätzliche Treibhauseffekt noch eingedämmt und zu starke Klimaänderungen vermieden werden können. W. Bonn. 1990.Von vagen Absichtserkärungen zu konkreten Handlungen.: Liberalisierung der Energiemärkte Umwelt. R.: Klimaschutz . contributed talk. 3. Stuttgart. contributed talk.
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Heinloth. Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“. 1990. 1912. 164 . Digest: Umwelt-Wirtschaft. Spektrum der Wissenschaft.: Imperialism and the Natural World.: dtv-Atlas zur Ökologie. contributed talk. Armut und Umwelt. 1991. Eugen Ulmer.: Ist Wirtschaftswachstum des Nordens nötig. W. R. and Hergt. Münster. Heidelberg. contributed talk. Hein. R. Manchester. H. J. 1983 Heinrich. Haggett. 1996.Grove. University of Manchester Press. München. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. in “Festschrift der Medizinisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Gesellschaft zu Münster”. 1996. Münster. June 17-18. Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“.: Die Anfänge des Umweltbewußtseins.Eine moderne Synthese. M. 1990. Teubner.: Geographie . K.J. Grove. dtv. H. Münster. Stuttgart. Stuttgart. Hasenbäumer. D.: Energie. June 17-18. P. Harborth.: Bevölkerungswachstum. damit sich der Süden entwickeln kann?. Zentrum für Umweltforschung.H. 1994.: Der Nachweis von Pflanzenbeschädigungen durch Rauchgase und Staub.
H.F.Hennicke.: The Physics of Atmospheres.D. M. H. Arnold. Princeton University Press.: Leistungen des EGUmweltschutzes.D. Holland. Kiepenheuer und Witsch.: Schienenverkehrskonzept Region Münster. Bonn. J. L. Symposium Energie und Umwelt . Münster.): Kursbuch Lebensqualität. Wuppertal. MA.T. C. Energie. 1995 165 . and Skalnik. 1995. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Princeton. Münster. Köln. Houghton. Langbein. K.Strategien einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung. London.: Geography and Geographers .: Der Wandel zum Energiedienstleistungsunternehmen: Ökologie als Kernproblem energiewirtschaftlichen Handelns. 1997. Umwelt. U.AngloAmerican Human Geography since 1945. Economica.J. and Neumann. 1998. Johnston. P.: Europäisches Umweltrecht. R. 1995. Its Resources and the Environment. Hüsing. 1991. (ed. H.M. and Petersen. Jarass.. Cambridge. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Jarass. contributed talk. NJ. Symposium Umwelt und Europa. contributed talk. Mühlberger. 1997. Cambridge University Press.D.: Living Dangerously The Earth. Wuppertal-Institut für Klima. 1994. J.
München.: Die Zukunft der Welt. 5. H. Symposium Umwelt und Europa. L. ecomed. Frankfurt.Lovelock. contributed talk.: Umweltbildung für Bewußtsein und Verhalten. vol. J. L. Kukuck. Molden. 1998. 1998. Landsberg.: Ozeane und Polargebiete als Klimatologische Steuerungsfaktoren. contributed talk. Informationszentrale der Elektrizitätswirtschaft. Heft 8. Kabelitz.): Dossier: Dritte Welt. Spektrum der Wissenschaft. 1996. Münster. Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“.Eine Zäsur?‚.A. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Origins of Life. Lange. June 17-18.: Die EU auf dem Weg zur Umweltunion?.: Homeostatic Tendencies of the Earth’s Atmosphere. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Kahn. 1996. 166 . Münster. Kunkel. 1979. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. (ed. A. Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“. 1996. 1974. H. H. Karl. L. Münster.: Das Kyoto-Agreement .): Stromdiskussion . 1996. K. (ed. June 17-18. Heidelberg. contributed talk. and Margulis.Dokumente und Kommentare zur energiewirtschaftlichen und energiepolitischen Diskussion. in „Vorträge und Studien des Zentrums für Umweltforschung der Westfälischen Wilhelms Universität“. Kruse-Graumann.
1998. 90 Abs. S.W. J. No. 2 und 3 EGV in einem liberalisierten Energiemarkt Zur Bedeutung der EuGH-Entscheidungen vom 23. Spektrum der Wissenschaft.: Energieeinspar. erster Bericht der Enquete-Kommission „Schutz der Erdatmosphäre“ des 12.: El Niño/Southern Oscilliation. et al: Klimaänderung gefährdet globale Entwicklung . and Gundel.gibt es eine bessere Lösung?. Wuppertal.Zukunft sichern . Institut für Geographie der Universität Münster. 1994. Loske.: Preise für die Umweltnutzung . Physikalische Blätter. Münster.jetzt handeln.Die Wärmekatastrophe und wie wir sie verhindern können (Der Greenpeace Report). K. Linscheidt. Köln. B. Metropolis.: Schlüsseltechnologien . R.D. 1992.Latif. 1998 Lechtenböhmer.: Die Rolle von Art. A. et al: Global Warming . Economica Verlag.und CO 2 Vermeidungspotentiale in Münster im Bereich Stromeinsatz der Kleinverbraucher. H. M. Lecherler. Recht der Energiewirtschaft. Spektrum. 1991.1997 für die Zukunft.10. Heft 6. J. Bonn. 1990-2005 sowie Emissionen der Landwirtschaft in Münster. 3. No.Spektrum der Wissenschaft Spezial 4. 1997. Deutschen Bundestages. Piper. K. and Truger. 167 .: Klimapolitik. 8. 1998. Linsmeier. Carl Heymanns Verlag. Lippold. Legget. Heidelberg. 1995.
: Umweltwissen . Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“. contributed talk.was ist das eigentlich?.Lüttge. 1997.Der Öko-Atlas Unserer Erde. Fischer.D. J. 1997. 1998. (ed.: Das Dilemma der ökologischen Steuerreform. and Penny.Strategien einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung. Spektrum der Wissenschaft.: Critical Loads & Levels: naturwissenschaftliche Bestandteile eines Indikatorensystems für dauerhaft-umweltgerechte Entwicklungen.: Nichtlineare Dynamik beim Wandel von Klima und Biodiversität. Münster. Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“. 1996. Oxford. June 17-18. Mohr. 8. C. H. June 17-18. 168 . S. M. M. No. Münster. Mayhew. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Nagel. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. 1996. contributed talk. 1985. H. Massarat.: Principles of Geology.): GAIA . Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Myers. 1830-33. Nitsch. Symposium Energie und Umwelt . Akademie für Technikfolgenabschätzung Baden Württemberg. 1992. U.: Technologische Nutzungspotentiale der regenerativen Energien. Lyell. A.: The Concise Oxford Dictionary Of Geography. Münster. Oxford University Press. contributed talk. Stuttgart.
July/August 1998. Pickering. H. and Benton. No. et al: Global 2000 . Vol. 1997. London.E. 1980. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.Strategien einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung.: Ökosteuern als Baustein der Energiepolitik . Reddish. 40. 1997. J. Stuttgart. M. Frankfurt am Main. G. Pfister. W. Stuttgart. G. G. (ed. and Renn.: Global Environmental Issues. 1996. Symposium Energie und Umwelt . Environment. 1996.: Die Studie „Zukunftsfähiges Deutschland“ des Wuppertal Instituts im Vergleich zum Nachhaltigkeitskonzept der Akademie für Technikfolgenabschätzung. Akademie für Technikfolgenabschätzung Baden Württemberg. London.. Owens. Pfaffenberger. and Speth. Münster. O. Vol. and Blackmore. 75. 1. 6. Routledge. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. 1994. A. Pfister.: The Kyoto Protocol . Zweitausendeins.: Ein Indikatorensystem zur Messung einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung in Baden Württemberg. No. 169 . Hodder & Stoughton.Vom theoretischen Modell zur wirtschaftlichen Konzeption. Redclift. 1996. Arbeitsbericht Nr.R. T. 3. contributed talk. O. and Renn. ecomed. Akademie für Technikfolgenabschätzung Baden Württemberg.W.: LCA Impact Assessment Categories Technical Feasibility and Accuracy. R.der Bericht an den Präsidenten. T.Ott.Unfinished Business.): Social Theory and the Global Environment.
June 17-18. P. Ökologie und Lebensstile in OECD Ländern. Roszak.: ECONOMICS. Teilband I. 1990. Wuppertal. 170 .O. Münster.. 1989. June 17-18. Wuppertal Institut.: Konsumdynamik. Bonn. Schriftenreihe „Zur Sache“ of the German Bundestag. K. Arbeitspapier für den Beirat für Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster. T. Eine Bestandsaufnahme mit Vorschlägen einer neuen Energiepolitik. Simon & Schuster.O.: Ökologie. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. F. Schmidbauer. 1995.: Luftverkehr und Klimaschutz .Optionen für Münster. Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“. K. W. Schallaböck.D. B. New York. 1995. Wuppertal. Reusswig. F. Schallaböck. contributed talk.J.A.O. Springer.: Luftverkehr und Klima . Study Commission „Vorsorge zum Schutz der Erdatmosphäre“ of the German Bundestag. H.: The Voice of the Earth. Mac Graw Hill. Münster. Samuelson.: Globale Umweltpolitik nach Rio und Berlin. and Nordhaus. Schallaböck. 1998.ein Problemfall.Remmert.: Ein Beitrag zu Luftverkehr und Klima in Münster. K. 1985. Münster. 1996. Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“. Schafhausen. Wuppertal Institut. 1992. New York. contributed talk. 1996. et al: Schutz der Erde.
W. contributed talk. 1993. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“. H.: On the Effects of Emissions From Aircraft Engines on the State of the Atmosphere.Ansätze und Perspektiven. Schönwiese. B. Spiegel Verlag Rudolf Augstein. Seitz.Schmidbauer. 1996. Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“. Schöps. Economica Verlag. Münster. Dietz Nachf. 1995.: Der Öko Atlas.L.E. DLR. Oxford. 1996. 1996. contributed talk. et al: Schutz der Erde. Teilband II. U. June 17-18. J. Simonis.H. Bonn. Oberpfaffenhofen. B. C.E. Taschenbuchverlag. June 17-18. 1991.: Indikatoren des Klimawandels . Study Commission „Vorsorge zum Schutz der Erdatmosphäre“ of the German Bundestag.D. Blackwell.: Auf dem Weg zur Weltumweltpolitik. J. U.: Global Issues.der Mensch in Konkurenz zur Natur. 171 . J. Seager.: Globale Umweltpolitik .I.Wohin sich die Menschheit entwickelt. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. Bonn. Eine Bestandsaufnahme mit Vorschlägen einer neuen Energiepolitik. Mannheim. D. (ed. 1991. Simonis. Schumann.J.. 1993. and Wild. U. Spiegel Spezial. Meyers Forum. Münster.): Die Erde 2000 .
Münster. 1997. Münster. Stadt Münster: Antrag der SPD-Fraktion und Fraktion Bündnis 90/Die Grünen/GAL an den Rat Nr. Antrag Nr. Umweltamt. Beschlußvorlage an den Rat. B. Münster. Stadt Münster: Einrichtung der Koordinierungsstelle Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster. 2/91 der CDU Ratsfraktion vom 27. 1992. 1995. Umweltamt. Wildt. Münster. Beschlußvorlage an den Finanzausschuß. 1995. Münster. Münster. 36/94 vom 02.1994 „Beitritt zum Klima-Bündnis der Europäischen Städte mit indigenen Völkern der Regenwälder“. A. Beschlußvorlage an den Finanzausschuß. Umweltamt der Stadt Münster. Umweltamt. Stadt Münster. Umweltamt. (ed. Umweltamt. Kenntnisnahme des Rates der Stadt Münster. Stadt Münster: Endbericht des Beirates für Klima und Energie. Stadt Münster: Endbericht des Beirates für Klima und Energie.12.Specht.12. Werkstattberichte zum Umweltschutz 5.1990 „Beirat für Klima und Energie“. Teil 1: Handlungsempfehlungen. Umweltamt. 1995. 1995. Münster.): Förderprogramm Altbausanierung. 1995. Stadt Münster: Handlungskonzept zur Umsetzung des Beirates für Klima und Energie. Ergänzungsvorlage zur Beschlußvorlage an den Rat. 172 .
1995. Teil 2: Erläuterungen. Umweltamt . Münster. Beschlußvorlage an den Rat. Münster. 1995. Münster. Stadt Münster: Öko-Audit für die Stadtverwaltung Münster. 1997. 1997. Münster. Stadt Münster: Wärmedämmstandards für Neubauten in städtischen Grundstückskaufverträgen. Umweltamt. Münster. Stadt Münster: Energie und Klimainventur 1995. Beschlußvorlage an den Rat. 173 . Umweltamt. Stadt Münster: Einrichtung des Klimaschutz. 1996. 1997. Stadt Münster: Arbeitsstand der Maßnahmen aus dem Bereich Ü (Sektorübergreifende Handlungsempfehlungen) des Handlungskonzeptes zur Umsetzung der Empfehlungen des Beirates für Klima und Energie. Münster. Bericht an den Rat. Münster. Beschlußvorlage an den Rat. Berichtsvorlage an den Rat. Werkstattberichte zum Umweltschutz 6. Umweltamt. Umweltamt. Beschlußvorlage an den Rat. Umweltamt. Teil 3. Stadt Münster: Bericht zur Einführung eines Öko-Audits in der Stadtverwaltung Münster. 1997. Stadt Münster: Wärmepaß der Stadt Münster. Umweltamt. Münster.und Energiespar-Forums Münster. Umweltamt Münster. Umweltamt. 1997.Stadt Münster: Endbericht des Beirates für Klima und Energie. Stadt Münster: Endbericht des Beirates für Klima und Energie. 1997. Werkstattberichte zum Umweltschutz 7.
Can Science Make the World a Better Place?.Hauptstadt des Klimaschutzes 1997“. W. Umweltamt. Bonn. 174 . Strahler. 1998. partly in Readers Digest (German edition). May.: Modern Physical Geography. Münster. Wakeford. Ströbele.H. 1997. A. Chichester. 1995.N. and Walters. Berichtsvorlage an den Ausschuß für Umwelt und Bauwesen.: Warum Bailey sich irrt. S. T. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. 1998. and Strahler. Symposium Energie und Umwelt .Strategien einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung. M. UNEP. Stadt Münster: Informationen der KLENKO Koordinierungsstelle für Klima und Energie zu „Münster . 1997. Münster.Stadt Münster: Arbeitsstand der Maßnahmen aus dem Bereich B (Bauen und Wohnen) des Handlungskonzeptes zur Umsetzung der Empfehlungen des Beirates für Klima und Energie. 1998. (ed. contributed talk. John Wiley & Sons. Thiesen. John Wiley and Sons.: Für welche Zwecke wird Energie in welcher Qualität benötigt?.): Science for the Earth. 1997. New York. 1992. A. Münster. UNEP: Reports of the Conference of the Parties on its third Session held at Kyoto From 1 to 11 December 1997. Umweltamt. Compuserve Earth Forum.
Weik. H. Dortmund.: Strom aus tausend Quellen. Weber. 1998. 2. 1998. R. Oberbözberg. H. Weik. Münster. Olynthus. 1995. and Pietzner. VEW. R. Arbeitspapier für den Beirat für Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster.: Einfluß der Gebäudeorientierung auf den passiv-solaren Energiegewinn in Münster. Arbeitspapier für den Beirat für Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster. Münster. Weber. Blohm. Olynthus. Vereinigte Elektrizitätswerke Westfalen: Blickpunkt Magazin für Energie und Umwelt. Arbeitspapier für den Beirat für Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster.: Einfluß der Orientierung von Dachempfangsflächen auf den aktiven Solargewinn in Münster. Olynthus.: Webers Taschenlexikon Energie+Umwelt. Vaduz. Weik. Münster. 1993. Münster. 175 . Arbeitspapier für den Beirat für Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster.: Niedertemperaturbedarf der Schulen in Münster und Anregungen zur Erziehung der Schüler zu Umweltbewußtsein. 1995. 1992.Weber. Vaduz.Emission der statistischen Bezirke in Münster für die Bereitstellung von Niedertemperaturwärme der Haushalte. H. Weik. M: EndenergieVerbräuche und CO2.: Webers Taschenlexikon Erneuerbare Energie. 1986. 1995. 1994. H.. Vol. R. R.
and Blohm.: Die europäische Umweltpolitik im Zeichen der ökonomischen Globalisierung.: The Molecular Biology of Gaia.R.: FAKTOR VIER Doppelter Wohlstand . Berlin. Der neue Bericht an den Club of Rome.H. University of London. Münster.: MA Geography. Münster. Lovins. Willemsen.Ermittlungen gegen Deutschland. Edition Tiamat. Studie für den Endbericht des Beirates für Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster. L. Weizsäcker.: Kopf oder Adler . Weischet.Folgerungen für die Bereitstellung von Niedertemperaturwärme in Münster. E. Stuttgart. München. R. Arbeitspapier für den Beirat für Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster. Yates. H. R.: Energie-Grenzbelastung und CO2-Problem im kosmischen Zusammenhang .Weik. 1996. 1995. Münster. Columbia University Press. W. contributed talk.halbierter Naturverbrauch. New York. Symposium Umwelt und Europa. 1992. 1995. Wittkämper. Williams. H.: Einführung in die Allgemeine Klimatologie. 176 . 1998. Knaur. G. 1991. Weik. 1995. London.W.B. E. Zentrum für Umweltforschung. A. 1997.. Teubner.: Entwicklung der EndenergieVerbräuche und CO2 Emission der statistischen Bezirke in Münster für die Bereitstellung von Niedertemperaturwärme der Haushalte zwischen 1990 und 1992.M. and Lovins. G.U.
and Owen T. Springer (1988) 4No proper translation exists in German for “habitable zone”. Whitmire and Reynolds (1993) 6Reynolds and Whitmeyer. this is the topic of my dissertation for the University of London. Iceages and warm-ages are known to be responsible for mass extinction of species.FOOTNOTES: 1Gladden.Joshi. R.: The Planetary System. the Software is “Dedicated to Gaia. 14This does not mean that those “little fluctuations” have no relevance for the life forms on the planet. I suggest “Stellare Lebenszone”. Addison Wesley (1987) 177 . (1993) 16Morrison. and the anthropogenic greenhouse effect may well have extremely devastating effects on the human civilization. user Manual by Michael Bremer. Unsöld. Lee: Personal communication (1994) 2F. D. the most pondered question by SimEarthling philosophers.al.. 15Moore. Lascu et al.the living planet” by Maxis computers. Haberle (1996) 9Reynolds and Whitmeyer. 1989. B. 5Kasting. Baschek: Der Neue Kosmos. Dyson: Private communication (1994) 3A. without whom this game would not be possible”. Before the introduction it reads “Is this a random world or did you planet?”.. (1996) 7Kasting et. (1993) 8M. (1996) 10Iben (1967) 11after Houghton (1986) 12Unsöld/Baschek. (1994). 1989 13based upon the simulation software “SimEarth .
21John M. XV. Geissler: Encounter With Earth. 3 (1996) 31See Appendix for graphical presentation of Energy consumption trends in Germany 32The „Institut für Klimafolgenforschung“ (Institute for Climate impact Research) was established in Potsdam 178 . J. Jenkins: Venus: A Failed Earth?. Bar-Nun: Comets. May/June 1995 23A. Rouan. Puget.L.M. Travis House (1996) 24More details in Part III 25H. 116. J. Schneider: How To Evidence Primitive Life On An Exoplanet? The Darwin Project in “Circumstellar Habitable Zones . Impacts and Atmospheres. Cooper: The Search for Life on Mars. ICARUS. 19Goldsmith and Owen: The Search for Life in the Universe. Mars Underground News. Planetary Report Vol.which glass walls do but “greenhouse gases” don’t. Yamamoto. K. Tsuruda: Aiming for the Red Planet. Léger.Proceedings of the first international conference. SETI Institute (1996) 22Paul E.but they do not dominate the atmospheric circulation. 1 (1996) 29T. Owen and A. No. Holt. Vol. Mariotti.17Venus shows retrograde rotation 18 convection does occur between lower and upper atmosphere and most probably Hadley cells that even range from the equator to the poles also exist . Addison Wesley (1992) 20Matter of factly the term “Greenhouse Effect” is fairly unprecise because most of the heating effect of a glass Greenhouse is a result from limited convection . Rinehart & Winston (1980) 26See Part III of project 27in the sense of “not biological” 28Mars Underground News. 215-226 (1996) 30T. J. Volume 8. D. 8 No.
the cost/benefit calculation was based upon general guidelines for investments in Germany and generally accepted approaches for running costs. Anke Hülster.the institute is completely understaffed. a Geo-Botanist 38See appendix for Interview with Drs. climate impact researcher. Geophysicist. Olaf Kiese. According to the first director . Geographer. Inst. Geophysics. Manfred Lange. 33For location see map in appendix 34In addition all major national and some international NGOs have local offices in Münster. Meteorologist. Münster 42Some of Münster’s activities were evaluated as positive. including Greenpeace and Naturschutzbund Deutschland 35Original quote: „Das Nachhaltigkeitspostulat orientiert sich demnach an den Bedürfnissen von Menschen. f. and at least 1000 scientists would be necessary to appropriately cope with the task at hand.in 1996 with 21 employees. based upon a twenty year model and 4% increase (Meixner. Agronomist and CEO of the ZUFO Münster 40Prof. One example is the action „Verzicht auf Tropenholz“ which encourages organizations and 179 . Münster 41Dr. Krämer and Hülster 39Dr. Dr. Holtmeier. 1996) 37Prof. academic director of the Institute for Geoecology. Doch warum sollte man zukünftigen Generationen die Möglichkeit zur Befriedigung ihrer Bedürfnisse geben? Ergibt sich diese Forderung aus objektiven Gegebenheiten?“ 36Assumptions: electricity from traditional WestGerman power plant mix is replaced/substituted.Hans Joachim Schellnhuber . although a more detailed analysis might prove the opposite.
A closer look at economic realities however reveals that this strategy does not necessarily result in the hoped for protection of rain forests. 1996). SO2 by 12. „If there is no demand for tropical wood. The Malaysian minister for agriculture argued. This is intended to help preserving the rain forests and therefore CO2 sinks.corporations in Münster to refrain from using tropical woods. a boycott against tropical wood may not result in sustainable tropical agriculture but instead in increased deforestation.4% and aerosols by 53% in the 5 year period 1990-1995 (Umweltamt der Stadt Münster. 1997). catalysators) that is responsible for these substantial successes. 180 . It is mainly the implementation of „end of pipe“ technology (filters. As a result.7%. 43In Münster CO was reduced by 20%. and the city itself has committed itself to the same. forests are worthless and will be replaced with plantations and development“ (Pakkesem. NOx by 35.
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