DAILY I FOREX REPORT

22ND MARCH 2013

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HEADLINES

Australian Dollar Higher As PMI Indicates China Growth Momentum Euro May Rise As PMI Data Overshadows Cyprus Jitters

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.2880 tgs 1.2860/1.2840 sl 1.2910

JPY Trade Deficit Continues, But Devalued Yen May Help EUR/USD Slips Under $1.2900 after Big Misses on Euro-zone, German PMIs
THE TAKEAWAY: EUR Euro-zone, French, and German PMI data for March disappoints across the board, signaling steeper recession which is likely to continue through 3Q13 > EURUSD BEARISH

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 96.05 tgt 96.25/96.45 SL 95.75

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5205 Tgt 1.5225/1.5245 SL 1.5175

The worst economic slump since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 looks set to continue in Europe, as the core regions begin to feel the brunt of the slowdown. The preliminary March PMI figures out of France, Germany, and the broader Eurozone all disappointed across the board, with all but one German PMI Services holding in or falling back into contraction territory. The headline figures are as follows:

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2939 HIGH: 1.2955 LOW: 1.2880 CLOSE: 1.2896

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND : BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 38(BEARISH SIGNAL)

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 95.94 HIGH: 96.03 LOW: 95.21 CLOSE: 95.41

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => -0.07( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>41(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLYGBPUSD GBPUSD CHART HOURLY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5094 HIGH: 1.5204 LOW: 1.5092 CLOSE: 1.5173

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 66(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8572 HIGH: 0.8573 LOW: 0.8492 CLOSE: 0.8501

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>27(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.8330 HIGH: 83.0210 LOW: 82.7410 CLOSE: 82.8480

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon Mar 18

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB) 00:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAR) GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAR) AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (FEB) AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB) CNY China February Property Prices CHF SECO March 2013 Economic Forecasts EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (JAN) CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (JAN) EUR Cyprus Parliament to Vote on Deposit Levy for EU Bailout Plan USD NAHB Housing Market Index (MAR) AUD RBA Policy Meeting - March Minutes CNY Conference Board China February Leading Economic Index JPY Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa Steps Down JPY Leading Index (JAN F) JPY Coincident Index (JAN F) JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-4.8%

-7.3%

Medium

1.2%

1.1%

00:01

Low

1.7%

2.8%

00:30

Low

0.0%

-2.2%

00:30

Low

9.4%

10.9%

01:30

Medium

06:45

Medium

10:00

Low

-3.9B

-3.5B

10.8B

10:00

Low

9.0B

10.9B

10.3B

12:30

Low

-1.92B

14:00

High

14:00
Tue Mar 19

Low

47

46

00:30

High

02:00

Low

04:00

High

05:00

Medium

96.3

05:00

Low

92.0

05:30

Low

0.2%

05:30

JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (FEB) EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (FEB) GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB) GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB) GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (FEB) GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (JAN) GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB) GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB) GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB) GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB) GBP Retail Price Index (FEB) GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (FEB) GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (FEB) EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAR) EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Low

0.5%

07:00

Low

-8.7%

09:30

High

2.8%

2.7%

09:30

High

2.2%

2.3%

09:30

Medium

0.7%

-0.5%

09:30

Medium

1.1%

1.4%

09:30

Medium

1.8%

2.0%

09:30

Medium

3.3%

3.3%

09:30

Low

2.4%

3.3%

09:30

Low

1.5%

1.3%

09:30

Low

0.8%

1.8%

09:30

Low

0.3%

0.2%

09:30

Low

0.4%

0.2%

09:30

Low

09:30

Low

3.2%

3.3%

09:30

Low

0.8%

-0.4%

10:00

High

48.1

48.2

10:00

Medium

42.4

10:00

Medium

5.2

10:00

Low

-1.7%

10:00

Low

-4.8%

12:30

USD Building Permits (MoM) (FEB) USD Housing Starts (MoM) (FEB) CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (JAN) CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (JAN) USD Building Permits (FEB) USD Housing Starts (FEB) NZD Current Account Balance (4Q) NZD Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio (4Q) AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JAN) USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (FEB) EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (FEB) EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (JAN) GBP Bank of England Releases Monetary Policy Committee Minutes GBP Jobless Claims Change (FEB) GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (JAN) GBP Claimant Count Rate (FEB) GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (JAN) GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (JAN) GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (JAN)

Medium

2.1%

-0.6%

12:30

Medium

2.8%

-8.5%

12:30

Low

0.6%

-3.1%

12:30

Low

0.4%

-0.9%

12:30

Low

923K

904K

12:30

Low

915K

890K

21:45

Medium

-2.950B

-4.418B

21:45

Low

-4.9%

-4.7%

23:30
Wed Mar 20

Low

0.2%

High

00:00

Low

-0.7%

07:00

Medium

1.5%

1.7%

07:00

Low

0.2%

0.8%

09:00

Low

27.0B

09:00

Low

13.9B

09:30

High

09:30

High

-5.0K

-12.5K

09:30

Medium

1.5%

1.4%

09:30

Medium

4.7%

4.7%

09:30

Medium

140K

154K

09:30

Medium

7.8%

7.8%

09:30

Low

1.5%

1.3%

10:00

CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (MAR) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 15) GBP U.K. Chancellor Osborne Presents 2013 Budget to Parliament CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (FEB) CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (FEB) CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (FEB) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 15) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 15) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 15) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 15) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAR A) USD Fed Releases Summary of Economic Projections USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (MAR 20) USD Fed's Bernanke Holds Press Conference in Washington NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q) NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q) JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (FEB) JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (FEB) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 15) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 15) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 15)

Medium

10

11:00

Low

-4.7%

12:30

High

13:00

Low

-0.3%

13:00

Low

2.7%

13:00

Low

153

14:30

Low

-1526K

14:30

Low

2624K

14:30

Low

83K

14:30

Low

-3571K

15:00

Medium

-23.2

-23.6

18:00

High

18:00

High

0.25%

0.25%

18:30

High

21:45

High

0.9%

0.2%

21:45

High

2.3%

2.0%

23:50

Medium

-855.9B

-1629.4B

23:50

Low

-1099.4B

-678.9B

23:50

Low

-838.2B

23:50

Low

1121.9B

23:50

Low

764.4B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 15) JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (FEB) JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (FEB) AUD CBAHIA House Affordability (4Q) AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (FEB) CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAR) NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (FEB) NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (FEB) JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JAN) JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (FEB) CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (FEB) CHF Exports (MoM) (FEB) CHF Imports (MoM) (FEB) JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (FEB) CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (FEB) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR P) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR P) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR A) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR A)

Low

-269.6B

23:50

Low

-1.2

6.4

23:50
Thu Mar 21

Low

14.9

7.3

00:00

Low

65.8

00:30

Low

393M

01:45

Medium

50.9

50.4

02:00

Medium

0.4%

02:00

Medium

-2.5%

04:30

Medium

-1.3%

1.8%

05:00

Low

-4.7%

07:00

Medium

2.13B

07:00

Low

3.70%

07:00

Low

-0.5%

07:00

Low

-0.9%

08:00

Low

9.20%

08:00

Low

44.2

43.9

08:00

Low

44.0

43.7

08:30

Medium

50.5

50.3

08:30

Medium

55.0

54.7

09:00

Medium

48.2

47.9

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR A) GBP PSNB ex Interventions (FEB) GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (FEB) GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (FEB) GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB) GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (FEB) GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB) GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (FEB) GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAR) GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (MAR) CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN) USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 16) CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (JAN) USD Continuing Claims (MAR 9) USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (MAR) USD House Price Index (MoM) (JAN) USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB) USD Leading Indicators (FEB) USD Philadelphia Fed. (MAR) USD API Monthly Statistical Report USD Existing Home Sales (FEB)

Medium

48.2

47.9

09:00

Medium

48.2

47.9

09:30

Medium

8.0B

-11.4B

09:30

Medium

-12.0B

-35.6B

09:30

Medium

8.2B

-9.9B

09:30

Medium

1.2%

0.2%

09:30

Medium

0.5%

-0.6%

09:30

Low

0.6%

-0.5%

09:30

Low

0.4%

-0.6%

11:00

Low

17

20

11:00

Low

-15

-14.0

12:30

Medium

0.8%

-2.1%

12:30

Medium

344K

332K

12:30

Low

0.3%

-0.9%

12:30

Low

3063K

3024K

12:58

Medium

54.8

13:00

Medium

0.7%

0.6%

14:00

Medium

1.6%

0.4%

14:00

Medium

0.3%

0.2%

14:00

Medium

-3

-12.5

14:00

Low

14:00

Low

5.00M

4.92M

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 15)

Low

-145

21:00

NZD ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (FEB) NZD Net Migration s.a. (FEB) AUD Conference Board Leading Index (JAN) CNY MNI March Flash Business Sentiment Indicator EUR German IFO Business Climate (MAR) EUR German IFO Current Assessment (MAR) EUR German IFO Expectations (MAR) USD Fed's Raskin Speaks on Labor Market in Washington USD Fed Revisions of Industrial Production

Low

-1.5%

21:45

Low

350

23:00
Fri Mar 22

Medium

-0.1%

01:35

Low

09:00

Medium

107.8

107.4

09:00

Medium

110.5

110.2

09:00

Medium

105.0

104.6

12:45

Low

16:00

Low

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