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^hklb]Z_l 75% ghfbgZevgh]h Ijb lZdhf gZijy`_gbb kjZ[Zlu\Zgby j_e_ W<- \hafh`gh hldexq_gb_ bklhqgbdZ jZ[hq_]h iblZgby ijb \hkklZgh\e_gbb gZijy`_gby ihke_ ebd\b^Zpbb dZ b ihke_^mxs_]h kZfhaZimkdZ we_dljh^\b]Zl_e_c LZdbf h[jZahf j_e_ W<- g_ m^h\e_l\hjy_l lj_[h\Zgbyf ij_^ty\ey_fuf d imkdh\hfm hj]Zgm fbgbfZevgh]h gZijy`_gby mkljhckl\Z :<J Ihwlhfm \f_klh h^gh]h lZdh]h j_e_ j_dhf_g^m_lky mklZgZ\eb\Zlv ^\Z hl^_evguo j_e_ ihklhyggh]h lhdZ gZijy`_gby b \j_f_gb.

\dexq_gb_ -3- .  >jm]hc g_^hklZlhd hj]Zgh\ \u^_j`db \j_f_gb \ ko_fZo mkljhckl\ :<J b fZdkbfZevghc lhdh\hc aZsblu k_dpbc  d< \uau\Z_lky ijbf_g_gb_f \ wlbo ko_fZo j_e_ W< k ij_^_ehf rdZeu k =ZjZglbjh\Zgguc jZa[jhk \u^_j`db \j_f_gb qZkh\h]h f_oZgbafZ wlbo j_e_ - k l_ bf__l lhl `_ ihjy^hd \_ebqbg qlh b lj_[m_fZy mklZ\dZ ih \j_f_gb j_e_ Ihwlhfm mdZaZggu_ j_e_ j_dhf_g^m_lky aZf_gylv ijb \u\h^_ ba jZ[hlu beb hldZa_ hkgh\guo aZsbl ijb\h^bl d g_h[oh^bfhklb mklZgh\db g_h[hkgh\Zggh [hevrbo \u^_j`_d \j_f_gb \ ko_fZo mkljhckl\ :<J qlh g_^himklbfh lZd dZd ijb wlhf g_ m^h\e_l\hjy_lky hkgh\gh_ lj_[h\Zgb_ d mkljhckl\Zf :<J .

j_e_ \j_f_gb k f_gvrbfb ij_^_eZfb rdZeu fh`gh aZf_gylv g_ \k_ j_e_ Z lhevdh _]h qZkh\hc f_oZgbaf.

  >ey \hafh`ghklb ZgZebaZ ijbqbg hldexq_gby bklhqgbdZ jZ[hq_]h iblZgby j_dhf_g^m_lky \ p_ib _]h hldexq_gby imkdh\uf hj]Zghf fbgbfZevgh]h gZijy`_gby :<J mklZgh\blv mdZaZl_evgh_ j_e_ F_lh^bdZ \u[hjZ mklZ\hd k dhgdj_lgufb ijbf_jZfb ^ey ^\mo gZb[he__ jZkijhkljZg_gguo ko_f iblZgby KG [ehqguo l_ieh\uo we_dljhklZgpbc jbk b .

5k ' timkd = t aZs + 0.4k '' '' timkd = t aZs + 0.9k ' ∗ tk_dp = thlde + t\de + 0.9k Jbk Ko_fZ iblZgby ^\mo k_dpbc  d< hl h^gh]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ k jZks_ie_ggufb h[fhldZfb beb dZ`^hc k_dpbb hl hl^_evgh]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ ' '' tlj 2 k = t aZs + 0.9k ' ' ∗ tk_dp = t aZs + thld + t\de + 0.5 ≈ 1.5 ≈ 0.4k b Kf jbk jbk Kf jbk jbk Kf Jbk jbk t '' aZs = tZ\l + 0.5 ≈ 0.5 ≈ 1k Ko_fZ iblZgby KG Kf jbk b Kf jbk jbk Kf jbk 2 tZ\l ≈ 0.5 ≈ 1.5 ≈ 1.5k iblZgby k_dpbc  d< Imkdh\hc hj]Zg fbgbfZevgh]h gZijy`_gby :<J k_dpbc  d< AZsblZ gZ k_e_dlb\guo Z\lhfZlZo FZdkbfZevgZy lhdh\Zy aZsblZ ljZgknhjfZlhjh\  d< iblZxsbo h^gm k_dpbx FZdkbfZevgZy lhdh\Zy aZsblZ ljZgknhjfZlhjh\  d< iblZxsbo ^\_ k_dpbb FZdkbfZevgZy lhdh\Zy aZsblZ k_dpbc  d< iblZxsboky hl h^gh]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ q_j_a jZa\bedm ba ^\mo \udexqZl_e_c Imkdh\hc hj]Zg ^hihegbl_evgh]h k_dpbhgbjh\Zgby Imkdh\h_ hj]Zg fbgbfZevgh]h gZijy`_gby :<J k_dpbc  d< bf_xsbo j_a_j\gh_ iblZgb_ hl ljZgknhjfZlhjZ Lj ' ' timkd = t aZs ≈ 0.4k Jbk Ko_fZ iblZgby ^\mo k_dpbc  d< hl h^gh]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ q_j_a jZa\bedm ba ^\mo \udexqZl_e_c -9-8- . ijb\_^_gZ gb`_ -4- GZbf_gh\Zgb_ mkljhckl\Z JZkq_lgu_ nhjfmeu b j_e_cghc aZsblu b hjb_glbjh\hqgu_ agZq_gby mklZ\hd Z\lhfZlbdb ih \j_f_gb mkljhckl\ j_e_cghc aZsblu b Z\lhfZlbdb FZdkbfZevgZy lhdh\Zy aZsblZ gZ \\h^Zo jZ[hq_]h ' t aZs ≈ 0.5 ≈ 0.4k ' tlj 1k = t Z\l + 0.4k '' ' ' ∗ timkd = t aZs + thld + t\de + 0.5 ≈ 1.

h[fhldZfb beb dZ`^hc k_dpbb hl hl^_evgh]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ kf jbk.

 Ijb iblZgbb h[_bo k_dpbc  d< hl h^gh]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ q_j_a jZa\bedm ba ^\mo \udexqZl_e_c kfjbk.

HJ MKL:<HD IH !GB IMKDH<H=H HJ=:G: .5 tk_dp = t aZs <U.HQ?=H IBL:GBY KG <u^_j`dZ \j_f_gb j_e_ Z\lhfZlbq_kdh]h \hkklZgh\e_gby ko_fu ihke_ ^hihegbl_evgh]h k_dpbhgbjh\Zgby ^he`gZ ijbgbfZlvky g_ f_g__ 4- k l_ g_ f_g__ \j_f_gb g_h[oh^bfh]h ^ey ijh\_jdb mklhcqb\h]h ihy\e_gby gZijy`_gby gZ ihemk_dpbb kh klhjhgu \\h^Z jZ[hq_]h iblZgby Gb`_ ijb\_^_gZ k\h^gZy lZ[ebpZ jZkq_lguo nhjfme b hjb_glbjh\hqguo agZq_gbc mklZ\hd ih \j_f_gb fZdkbfZevghc lhdh\hc aZsblu imkdh\uo hj]Zgh\ fbgbfZevgh]h gZijy`_gby :<J b ko_fu ^hihegbl_evgh]h k_dpbhgbjh\Zgby  FZdkbfZevgZy lhdh\Zy aZsblZ gZ \\h^Zo jZ[hq_]h iblZgby k_dpbc  d< ^he`gZ hlkljZb\Zlvky ih \j_f_gb lhevdh hl ]h^h\uo hlk_q_d b ^bnn_j_gpbZevguo aZsbl ijbkh_^bg_gbc  d< MklZ\dZ ih \j_f_gb ' ^he`gZ dZd ijZ\beh khklZ\eylv fZdkbfZevghc lhdh\hc aZsblu t aZs ijbf_jgh  k 2.HJ MKL:<HD IH G:IJY@?GBX IMKDH<UO HJ=:GH< FBGBF:EVGH=H G:IJY@?GBY :<J B KO?FU >HIHEGBL?EVGH=H K?DPBHGBJH<:GBY GZijy`_gb_ kjZ[Zlu\Zgby imkdh\h]h hj]ZgZ fbgbfZevgh]h gZijy`_gby :<J b imkdh\h]h hj]ZgZ ^hihegbl_evgh]h k_dpbhgbjh\Zgby ijb bkq_agh\_gbb gZijy`_gby gZ h[_bo k_dpbyo  d< \u[bjZ_lky lZdbo h[jZahf qlh[u imkdh\u_ hj]Zgu kjZ[Zlu\Zeb ijb ij_djZs_gbb iblZgby k_dpbc b g_ ijboh^beb \ ^_ckl\b_ ijb ihgb`_gbyo gZijy`_gby \ua\Zgguo d\ gZ k[hjguo rbgZo \ukhdh]h gZijy`_gby =JWK beb kZfaZimkdhf we_dljh^\b]Zl_e_c >ey \uiheg_gby wlbo mkeh\bc gZijy`_gb_ kjZ[Zlu\Zgby &kj -5- -6- <U.HJ MKL:<HD IH <J?F?GB F:DKBF:EVGUO LHDH<UO A:SBL G: <<H>:O J:.5 ' '' tlj 2 k = t aZs + 0. mklZ\dZ ih \j_f_gb imkdh\h]h hj]ZgZ ^hihegbl_evgh]h k_dpbhgbjh\Zgby ijbgbfZ_lky gZ klmi_gv [hevr_ \j_f_gb \hafh`gh]h i_j_ju\Z iblZgby ihke_ hldexq_gby da gZ h^ghc ba k_dpbc  d< : ' ' + t fbg + 0. FZdkbfZevgZy lhdh\Zy aZsblZ ljZgknhjfZlhjZ jZ[hq_]h iblZgby k_dpbc  d< hlkljZb\Z_lky ih \j_f_gb hl fZdkbfZevghc lhdh\hc aZsblu \\h^h\ jZ[hq_]h iblZgby k_dpbb  d< Klmi_gv \u^_j`db \j_f_gb ih k_e_dlb\ghklb ^he`gZ ijbgbfZlvky jZ\ghc - k 3.5 '' t aZs = tZ\l + 0.5 <U. FZdkbfZevgZy lhdh\Zy aZsblZ ljZgknhjfZlhjh\  d< iblZxsbo q_j_a jZa\bedm ^\_ k_dpbb ^he`gZ hlkljZb\Zlvky ih \j_f_gb hl fZdkbfZevghc lhdh\hc aZsblu k_dpbc  d< Z fZdkbfZevgZy lhdh\Zy aZsblZ ljZgknhjfZlhjh\  d< iblZxsbo h^gm k_dpbx ^he`gZ hlkljZb\Zlvky ih \j_f_gb lhevdh hl jZkp_ibl_e_c f]gh\_ggh]h ^_ckl\by k_e_dlb\guo Z\lhfZlh\ ' tlj 1k = t Z\l + 0. FZdkbfZevgZy lhdh\Zy aZsblZ dZ`^hc ba ^\mo k_dpbc  d< iblZ_fuo hl h^gh]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ  d< q_j_a jZa\bedm ba ^\mo \udexqZl_e_c ^he`gZ hlkljZb\Zlvky ih \j_f_gb hl jZkp_ibl_e_c f]gh\_ggh]h ^_ckl\by k_e_dlb\guo Z\lhfZlh\ gZ ijbkh_^bg_gbyo  d< <u^_j`dZ \j_f_gb aZsblu k_e_dlb\guo Z\lhfZlh\ tZ\l \ mklZgh\dZo KG ijbgbfZ_lky dZd ijZ\beh jZ\ghc g_ [he__  k LZdbf h[jZahf \u^_j`dZ \j_f_gb fZdkbfZevghc lhdh\hc aZsblu k_dpbb  d< hij_^_ey_lky ih nhjfme_ Ijb iblZgbb hl ljZgknhjfZlhjZ  d< h^ghc k_dpbb  d< fZdkbfZevgZy lhdh\Zy aZsblZ gZ \\h^_ iblZgby k_dpbb g_ mklZgZ\eb\Z_lky 4.

FBGB:EVGH=H G:IJY@GBY MKLJHCKL<: :<J <u^_j`dZ \j_f_gb j_e_ imkdh\h]h hj]ZgZ fbgbfZevgh]h gZijy`_gby :<J k_dpbb  d< ^he`gZ ijbgbfZlvky jZ\ghc mklZ\d_ j_e_ \j_f_gb fZdkbfZevghc lhdh\hc aZsblu k_dpbb ijb iblZgbb dZ`^hc ba k_dpbc hl ljZgknhjfZlhjZ k jZks_ie_ggufb h[fhldZfb beb hl hl^_evgh]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ kf jbk.

  Ijb iblZgbb ^\mo k_dpbc  d< hl h^gh]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ k g_jZks_ie_ggufb h[fhldZfb kf jbk.

\u^_j`dZ \j_f_gb imkdh\h]h ' ^he`gZ mklZgZ\eb\Zlvky gZ hj]ZgZ fbgbfZevgh]h gZijy`_gby :<J timkd klmi_gv [hevr_ \u^_j`db \j_f_gb fZdkbfZevghc lhdh\hc aZsblu k_dpbb  GZb[hevrZy \_ebqbgZ ihemq_ggZy ba mdZaZgguo lj_o mkeh\bc ijbgbfZ_lky aZ mklZ\dm j_e_ \j_f_gb imkdh\h]h hj]ZgZ fbgbfZevgh]h gZijy`_gby :<J k_dpbb  Z< '' timkd ≥ tk_dp ' <U.HJ MKL:<HD IH <J?F?GB IMKDH<H=H HJ=:G: >HIHEGBL?EVGH=H K?DPBHGBJH<:GBY IjZ\bevgZy jZ[hlZ mkljhckl\Z :<J k_dpbc  d< fh`_l [ulv h[_ki_q_gZ lhevdh \ lhf kemqZ_ _keb jZa^_e_gb_ k_dpbc gZ ihemk_dpbb ijb j_`bfZo k\yaZgguo k ihl_j_c iblZgby h[_bfb k_dpbyfb  d< ijhbahc^_l jZgvr_ beb h^gh\j_f_ggh k hldexq_gb_f Z\lhfZlh\ \\h^h\ jZ[hq_]h iblZgby k_dpbc  d< <u[hj \u^_j`db \j_f_gb imkdh\h]h hj]ZgZ ^hihegbl_evgh]h k_dpbhgbjh\Zgby j_dhf_g^m_lky ijhba\h^blv ba jZkq_lZ fbgbfZevgh]h i_j_ju\Z \ iblZgbb ijb hkh[h hl\_lkl\_gguo gZ]jmadZo Mq_l fZdkbfZevgh \hafh`gh]h i_j_ju\Z iblZgby k_dpbc  d< ijb\h^bl d g_h[oh^bfhklb mklZgh\db kebrdhf [hevrhc \u^_j`db \j_f_gb dh]^Z wnn_dlb\ghklv ^_ckl\by :<J agZqbl_evgh kgb`Z_lky b g_ ^hklb]Z_lky hkgh\gh_ mkeh\b_ ij_^mkfZljb\Z_fh_ ^hihegbl_evguf k_dpbhgbjh\Zgb_f Z bf_ggh h[_ki_q_gb_ kZfhaZimkdZ b khojZg_gb_ \ jZ[hl_ we_dljh^\b]Zl_e_c  d< hl\_lkl\_gguo f_oZgbafh\ h[_ki_qb\Zxsbo hklZgh\ [ehdZ [_a ih\j_`^_gby hkgh\gh]h h[hjm^h\Zgby \ mkeh\byo hlkmlkl\by gZijy`_gby gZ h[_bo k_dpbyo K+ 6 d< Bkoh^y ba mdZaZgguo mkeh\bc mklZ\dZ j_e_ \j_f_gb ko_fu dhgljhey bkq_agh\_gby gZijy`_gby gZ h[_bo k_dpbyo  d< imkdh\h]h hj]ZgZ ^hihegbl_evgh]h k_dpbhgbjh\Zgby ^ey \u^_e_gby hkh[h hl\_lkl\_gghc gZ]jmadb ^he`gZ ijbgbfZlvky gZ klmi_gv [hevr_ \j_f_gb fbgbfZevgh]h i_j_ju\Z iblZgby ijb :<J k_dpbc KG  d< MdZaZgghc nhjfmehc j_dhf_g^m_lky ihevah\Zlvky ijb \uiheg_gbb jZ[hq_]h iblZgby k_dpbc KG  d< hl ljZgknhjfZlhjZ k jZks_ie_ggufb ' tk_dp = t fbg + 0.5 MklZ\dm ih \j_f_gb imkdh\h]h hj]ZgZ fbgbfZevgh]h '' j_dhf_g^m_lky ijbgbfZlv gZijy`_gby :<J iblZgby k_dpbc  d< timkd bkoh^y ba ke_^mxsbo mkeh\bc Z.

5 ' ' t fbg = thlde + t\de ' -\j_fy hldexq_gby \udexqZl_ey jZ[hq_]h iblZgby  d< ]^_ thlde t\de -\j_fy \dexq_gby \udexqZl_ey j_a_j\gh]h iblZgby dhlhjh_ ijbgbfZ_lky ih gZb[he__ f_^e_ggh ^_ckl\mxs_fm \udexqZl_ex j_a_j\gh]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ \dexqZ_fhfm mkljhckl\hf :<J [. hgZ ^he`gZ [ulv gZ klmi_gv [hevr_ \hafh`gh]h i_j_ju\Z iblZgby \ua\Zggh]h hldexq_gb_f da gZ k_dpbb  d< ^h \dexq_gby bklhqgbdZ j_a_j\gh]h iblZgby mkljhckl\hf :<J  '' ' ' timkd = t aZs + t fbg + 0.

5 timkd \. hgZ ^he`gZ gZ klmi_gv ij_\urZlv mklZ\dm ih \j_f_gb fZdkbfZevghc lhdh\hc aZsblu k_dpbb ijb iblZgbb ^\mo k_dpbc hl h^gh]h jZ[hq_]h ljZgknhjfZlhjZ  d< ' ' = t aZs + 0.

5 . hgZ ^he`gZ [ulv gZ klmi_gv [hevr_ b^b jZ\gZ \u^_j`d_ \j_f_gb imkdh\h]h hj]ZgZ ^hihegbl_evgh]h k_dpbhgbjh\Zgby tk_dp gZ \k_o k_dpbyo ghjfZevgh j_a_j\bjm_fuo hl lh]h `_ ljZgknhjfZlhjZ qlh b ihemk_dpbb \u^_ey_fu_ ijb ^hihegbl_evghf k_dpbhgbjh\Zgbb -7- '' '' timkd = t aZs + 0.

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